1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The "moderately loose" tone of monetary policy continues, and a comprehensive reserve requirement ratio cut may be implemented first. Monetary policy will strengthen counter - cyclical adjustment and cooperate with fiscal policy. A comprehensive reserve requirement ratio cut may land in the first half of the year, and a comprehensive interest rate cut may be launched if necessary. Structural tools will support key areas and new tools may be created to promote consumption and stabilize foreign trade [4][34][36]. - The supply pressure of interest - rate bonds may increase. The annual issuance of interest - rate bonds may exceed 31 trillion yuan, with supply peaks in the second and third quarters. The yield will remain highly volatile under the game between the fundamentals and incremental policies, and the yield center may decline in the second half of the year. Attention can be paid to local bond trading opportunities [4][37][44]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental and Liquidity Monitoring - In the first quarter, the economy started well with GDP growing by 5.4% year - on - year. The industrial added value increased by 6.5% year - on - year, and high - tech manufacturing grew rapidly. Investment and social retail sales increased, but there were still issues such as negative real estate investment growth. CPI and PPI showed different trends, and PMI data indicated overall weak performance [6]. - The MLF policy interest rate attribute was diluted, and the money market was tight with the central money rate rising. The central bank mainly used repurchase operations for net capital injection, and did not cut interest rates or the reserve requirement ratio. Banks faced high liability pressure, and non - bank deposits decreased significantly [9][12]. 3.2 Interest - rate Bond Market Operation - The issuance scale of interest - rate bonds increased year - on - year. In the first quarter, the total issuance scale reached 7.87 trillion yuan, with increases in all types of bonds. Special refinancing bonds for local debt increased significantly, while the issuance progress of new special bonds was still slow compared with 2022 - 2023 [15]. - The yield of interest - rate bonds first rose and then fell, with high volatility. The 10 - year treasury bond yield was 1.8129% at the end of March, up 13.77BP from the end of last year. The yield can be divided into three stages in the first quarter: interval fluctuation, upward fluctuation, and downward fluctuation [17][18][19]. - The trading volume of interest - rate bonds increased, mainly driven by the increase in policy - financial bond trading. The 10Y - 1Y spread of treasury bonds narrowed, and the local bond trading spread widened [24][25]. 3.3 Monetary Policy Outlook - The "moderately loose" tone of monetary policy continues. Considering overseas uncertainties and domestic economic challenges, the central bank will choose the timing to cut the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates. A comprehensive reserve requirement ratio cut may be implemented first, and the use of structural tools will be increased [34][36]. 3.4 Interest - rate Bond Outlook - The annual issuance of interest - rate bonds may exceed 31 trillion yuan. The issuance of government bonds will accelerate, and the second and third quarters may see supply peaks. If the US maintains high tariffs, it may drag down China's GDP growth, and incremental fiscal policies may be introduced, increasing the supply of interest - rate bonds [37][40]. - The yield will remain highly volatile under the game between the fundamentals and incremental policies. In the second quarter, the yield may fluctuate within a range, and may face upward pressure if the tariff negotiation eases. In the second half of the year, the yield center may decline if the economic repair pressure increases [43][44].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The economic growth in the central Jiangsu region is rapid, but the industrial layout is still traditional, and the tax - source cultivation ability lags behind that of the southern Jiangsu region. The government's fiscal revenue is under pressure due to the real - estate market adjustment, resulting in dual debt pressure. However, significant progress has been made in debt risk prevention and control. The bond - issuing urban investment enterprises in the three cities in central Jiangsu have prominent problems such as large debt scale, weak profitability, and over - dependence on government subsidies, and they need to transform and resolve debts [3][38][39]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Debt Cause Analysis - **Economic and Demographic Situation**: The central Jiangsu region has strong economic development momentum, with a compound GDP growth rate of 6.32% in the past five years. However, the population growth in some cities is slow, and the urbanization rate and per - capita disposable income still have room for improvement [5]. - **Industrial Structure**: The fixed - asset investment in the three cities in central Jiangsu has promoted industrial transformation, but the industrial structure is still "secondary - tertiary - primary", and the proportion of the tertiary industry is relatively low compared to the provincial average. The traditional industries in each city are relatively strong, and the emerging industries are weak, with low tax - creation ability [7]. - **Fiscal Revenue**: From 2020 - 2024, the compound growth rate of the general budget revenue in the three cities in central Jiangsu was 2.9%. The fiscal budget balance rate is mostly below 65%, and the fiscal self - sufficiency rate is low. The government - funded revenue is under pressure due to the real - estate market adjustment, and the urban investment platforms' land - acquisition behavior has increased their debt burden [11]. - **Debt Scale**: The local debt in the central Jiangsu region has expanded rapidly in the past five years, with a compound growth rate of 13.6%. Since 2021, the broad - based debt ratio has been on the rise [14]. 2. Main Debt - Resolution Measures and Progress - **Policy and Measures**: The Jiangsu provincial government implements a full - scale debt classification management system. The three cities in central Jiangsu have formulated corresponding management policies, including debt scale control, cost reduction, and platform transformation [18]. - **Specific Actions**: Each city has introduced a series of measures, such as debt risk warning mechanisms, budget management reforms, and platform company integration. As of March 1, 2025, 105 government financing platforms in the three cities have exited. The financing costs in each city have also been significantly reduced [19][21]. 3. Observation of the Fundamentals of Bond - Issuing Urban Investment Enterprises in the Three Cities in Central Jiangsu - **Enterprise Hierarchy and Credit Rating**: As of December 31, 2024, there were 151 bond - issuing urban investment enterprises in the three cities in central Jiangsu, mainly at the district - county level, and the credit ratings are mainly AA and AA+. The overall quality of the district - county - level enterprises is relatively weak [24][25]. - **Asset and Financial Leverage**: The asset scale of the bond - issuing urban investment enterprises is increasing, mainly driven by government - related assets. The financial leverage is also rising [24]. - **Operating Performance**: The operating cash - generating ability of the enterprises is limited, and they are highly dependent on government subsidies. The cash - recovery ability is acceptable, but the profitability of some enterprises is declining [31]. - **Debt Situation**: The scale of the existing interest - bearing debt is increasing, and the progress of debt scale reduction is average, but the financing cost has decreased significantly. The financing is generally tightening, and the effect of non - standard financing reduction is remarkable [24][33][36]. 4. Summary - The economic development in the central Jiangsu region is accompanied by dual debt pressure. Although progress has been made in debt control, the bond - issuing urban investment enterprises still face problems such as large debt scale and weak self - hematopoietic ability. They need to transform and resolve debts [38][39].

8 2025 2024 年 年第 4 月 14 14 期 作者: 中诚信国际 研究院 院长 袁海霞 hxyuan@ccxi.com.cn 研究员 张堃 kzhang02@ccxi.com.cn 研究员 张文宇 wyzhang@ccxi.com.cn 政府债融资支撑社融改善，微观主体信贷 需求仍待提振，2025 年 3 月 17 日 信贷实现"开门红"，但内生需求仍有待 改善，2025 年 2 月 17 日 信贷持续拖累社融，化债落地加速M1 改善， 2024 年 12 月 16 日 新增人民币贷款触历史新低，政策亟需发 力提振有效需求，2024 年 8 月 14 日 如需订阅研究报告，敬请联系 中诚信国际品牌与投资人服务部 赵 耿 010-66428731 gzhao@ccxi.com.cn 微观主体信贷需求边际回升，外部承压下政策需协同 发力 ——3 月金融数据点评 事件：3 月社融新增 5.89 万亿，同比多增 1.05 万亿，存量社融增 速8.4%，环比上升0.2pct，同比下降0.3pct；金融机构人民币贷款新 增 3.64 万亿，同比多增 0.55 万亿； M1（新口径）同比增长 1.6%，环 比上 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Views - The turmoil in the US bond market may have multiple impacts on the Chinese bond market, potentially attracting more long - term allocation funds in the short and long term, but also bringing uncertainties [2][12][13] - Four departments issued a guidance to support the high - quality development of the sports industry through bond financing, which may lead to the launch of innovative sports industry bond varieties, but the development of the industry depends on the improvement of residents' sports consumption levels [3][14][15] Summaries by Section Market Hotspots - On April 10, the US financial market was comprehensively impacted. The US stock, bond, and dollar markets tumbled, with the 10 - year US Treasury yield rising sharply and large - scale selling occurring. This reflected a systematic re - evaluation of the US fiscal prospects, policy stability, and inflation risks by global investors [10][11] - The US bond market turmoil may cause a regional shift in global asset allocation, and China's bond market may attract more long - term funds. The stability of RMB assets is more prominent, and the volatility of US bonds may prompt the Chinese regulatory authorities to re - consider cross - border capital flows and interest rate liberalization [12][13] - Four departments jointly issued a guidance to support the high - quality development of the sports industry through bond financing, which aims to guide financial resources to the sports industry, and may lead to the launch of innovative bond varieties. However, the long - term development of the industry depends on the improvement of residents' sports consumption levels [3][14][15] Macroeconomic Data - In March, CPI decreased by 0.4% month - on - month and 0.1% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing. Core CPI increased by 0.5% year - on - year. Food prices decreased, but the decline narrowed, and non - food prices increased slightly [4][16] - In March, PPI decreased by 0.4% month - on - month and 2.5% year - on - year, with the year - on - year decline widening due to falling international commodity prices and weak downstream demand. However, high - tech and some manufacturing industries showed stable or rising prices [4][17] Money Market - Last week, the central bank net - withdrew 4392 billion yuan through open - market operations. Although funds were withdrawn, the money market remained balanced, and money market interest rates generally declined [5][19][20] Primary Market of Credit Bonds - Last week, the issuance scale of credit bonds was 2044.51 billion yuan, an increase of 763.71 billion yuan from the previous period. The cancellation scale of credit bond issuance decreased. The issuance scale of each bond type increased, and the average issuance cost generally decreased, except for the 5 - year AA - rated bonds [6][26][35] Secondary Market of Credit Bonds - Last week, the secondary - market trading volume of bonds was 106111.37 billion yuan, with the daily average trading volume increasing significantly. Bond yields generally declined, and the credit spreads of AAA - rated bonds mostly widened, as did the rating spreads [7][38][48]

监测周报 2025 年 4 月 7 日—2025 年 4 月 13 日 总第 339 期 2025 年第 13 期 隐性债务监管高压态势不变强调防范"处置风险的风险" 地方政府债与城投行业 拟成立专项基金加大收储力度 地方债存量规模突破 50 万亿 ——地方政府债与城投行业监测周报 2025 年第 13 期 本期要点 要闻点评 地方政府债与城投债交易情况 作者： 中诚信国际 研究院 中诚信国际研究院 院长 袁海霞 hxyuan@ccxi.com.cn 【地方政府债与城投行业监测周报 2025 年 第 12 期】关注城市更新示范城市城投业务 机会，四川印发财税体制改革总体方案， 2025-04-11 【地方政府债与城投行业监测周报 2025 年 第 11 期】上交所"3 号指引"引导城投 "真转型"，湖南率先出台专项债"自审 自发"方案，2025-04-03 【地方政府债与城投行业监测周报 2025 年 第 10 期】第二批 2 万亿债务置换额度已完 成六成，山东淄博落地区县级非标置换专 项贷款，2025-03-28 【地方政府债与城投行业监测周报 2025 年 第 9 期】两办印发《提振消费专项行动方 案》， ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q1 2025, personal consumer finance and micro - loans were active, and the issuance scale of asset - backed notes increased significantly year - on - year. The issuance of asset - backed notes was booming, and the secondary - market trading was also active. The release of the Action Plan by the National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors is conducive to optimizing the bond financing environment for private enterprises [3][4] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Issuance Situation - In Q1 2025, 120 asset - backed note products were issued, with a total issuance scale of RMB 101.009 billion, an increase of 49 in quantity and 118.47% in scale compared with the same period last year. Among them, 36 ABCP products were issued, with a scale of RMB 33.58 billion, accounting for 33.24% of the ABN issuance scale. The top five sponsoring institutions accounted for 45.78% of the issuance scale, and the top ten accounted for 66.39% [4][5][25] - In terms of the classification of underlying assets, the debt - type ABN dominated, with a scale of RMB 88.233 billion, accounting for 87.35%. The average issuance scale of other - type assets was the highest at RMB 1.955 billion per unit. The underlying assets mainly included personal consumer finance, micro - loans, subsidy payments, etc. New product types such as specific non - financial claims and CMBN emerged, and the issuance scales of personal consumer finance, micro - loans, etc. increased year - on - year [10][12][14] - In terms of issuance scale distribution, the product with the highest single - issue scale was RMB 5.005 billion, and the lowest was RMB 0.9 billion. The number of products with a single - issue scale in the (5, 10] billion yuan range was the largest, accounting for 68.12% of the scale [17] - In terms of term distribution, the shortest term was 0.17 years, and the longest was 18.01 years. The number of products with a term in the (1, 2] year range was the largest, accounting for 41.50% of the scale [20] - In terms of grade distribution, AAAsf - rated notes accounted for 90.45% [21] - The interest rate center of one - year AAAsf - rated notes was around 2.10%, and the median decreased by 50 BP compared with the same period last year [4][23] 2. Analysis of Issuance Spreads - Compared with Treasury bonds and enterprise bonds of the same term, the issuance spreads of 1 - year and 3 - year asset - backed notes both narrowed. The issuance spreads of personal consumer finance, micro - loans, and supply - chain assets increased slightly, while the issuance costs of related products decreased significantly compared with the same period last year [4][30][36] 3. Secondary - Market Trading Situation - In Q1 2025, the total trading amount of asset - backed notes in the secondary market was RMB 141.746 billion, and the number of transactions was 1,640, with year - on - year increases of 28.75% and 35.65% respectively. The more active products mainly included class REITs, personal consumer finance, accounts receivable, etc. [40][43] 4. Industry Dynamic Review - On March 14, 2025, the National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors issued the Action Plan, which is conducive to optimizing the bond financing environment for private enterprises and providing strong support for the healthy development of the private economy [45][46]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoint of the Report Benefiting from continuous strong support from the central government, the uniqueness of the Corps system, and its prominent resource endowment and development foundation, Xinjiang has a strong willingness to repay debts and a good foundation for debt repayment. Despite the existing debt pressure on local governments and platform enterprises, the overall regional debt risk is controllable. However, factors such as the high dependence on resource-based industries, the development gap between northern and southern Xinjiang, rigid investment expenditures for regional stability and infrastructure improvement, and the information and resource allocation under the "dual-track system" of the autonomous region and the Corps may pose constraints on debt management [7][55]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Analysis of Xinjiang's Debt Repayment Will Supported by Central Policy Empowerment and the Resilience of the Corps System - Xinjiang has a unique geopolitical position and a prominent strategic status, with large-scale rigid expenditure needs. Its economic and fiscal strength is limited, and local fiscal self-sufficiency is weak. The central government has been providing support policies and large-scale transfer payments, which strongly support its strong debt repayment will [4][11]. - In 2024, Xinjiang received a total of 418.284 billion yuan in general budget and government fund budget subsidies from the central government. The scale of general budget subsidies from the central government in recent years has been among the top in ethnic minority autonomous regions and the five northwestern provinces [14]. - The special Corps system strengthens Xinjiang's overall debt repayment will. The "Agricultural Sixth Division default event" in 2018 reflected the problem of debt repayment resource mismatch caused by the deep - seated interwoven relationship between the autonomous region and the Corps system, but it also became an opportunity to strengthen debt management [19]. - After the default event, Xinjiang and the Corps strengthened debt risk control, increased the investigation of hidden debts, and established a debt risk accountability system. The central government also supported debt risk resolution through transfer payments and special bond quota allocation [21]. - In terms of historical debt repayment performance, Xinjiang has basically held the bottom line of urban investment debt risk. Except for the 2018 Agricultural Sixth Division bond default, there have been no other bond default events, and there are few credit risk events such as non - standard defaults and bill overdue [24]. 2. Analysis of Xinjiang's Debt Repayment Guarantee Ability under the Linkage of Resource Economy and Central Support - Supported by policies and resource endowments, Xinjiang's economy and finance have maintained a relatively fast growth trend. Since the 14th Five - Year Plan, Xinjiang has shifted its focus to economic development, and the "Ten Industrial Clusters" development plan has been released, with good future economic development prospects [27][30]. - Xinjiang's fiscal revenue is resource - driven. Abundant resources can provide liquidity support for debt risk prevention, and there is still room for industrial structure upgrading. Its low dependence on land finance makes its fiscal revenue less affected by the real estate downturn [34]. - However, the high dependence on resource - based industries and the development gap between northern and southern Xinjiang lead to insufficient economic stability. Rigid investment expenditures for regional stability and infrastructure improvement may hinder debt resolution [37][42]. 3. Analysis of Xinjiang's Local Debt Repayment Pressure under the Background of the Package Debt Resolution Policy - Xinjiang's overall debt scale and debt ratio are at the middle and lower levels in the country. The debt repayment pressure exists but is relatively controllable, and there is still some room for debt - raising in future economic development [6]. - Since the implementation of the package debt resolution policy, Xinjiang has issued a large - scale of special refinancing bonds and special new special bonds to resolve local government debts. The regional financing environment has been effectively improved, the issuance cost of platform bonds has significantly decreased, and the bond term has been extended, effectively alleviating the debt pressure [6][50]. 4. Summary Xinjiang has large - scale rigid expenditure needs, limited economic and fiscal strength, and weak local fiscal self - sufficiency. The government and enterprises have certain debt pressure. However, with the support of the central government and the improvement of debt management, the region has good development prospects. Although there are some factors restricting debt management, the overall regional debt risk is controllable [55].

城投债季度报告 刘绍思 shsliu@ccxi.com.cn 织 中诚信国际基础设施投融资行业 供给持续缩量 区域化债分化加剧 城投转型深化与风险交织 ——2025 年一季度城投债市场追踪及市场关注 摘 要 供给持续缩量 区域化债分化加剧 城投转型深化与风险交 ——2025 年一季度城投债市场追踪及市场关注 作者 政府公共评级部 宋丹丹 ddsong@ccxi.com.cn 中诚信国际基础设施投融资行业 3 第四、苏鲁浙发债额度仍遥遥领先，但净融资均有不同程度的下滑；同时，重点省份债 务化解稳步推进，发行总额小幅下降，净融资额由负转正，严监管政策对于非重点省份 的影响仍较明显。江苏省、浙江省和山东省发行金额仍居前三位，但江苏省和浙江省净 融资缺口较大，且各省份净融资额较去年同期普遍有所下滑；重点省份发行金额仍较小。 同时，2025 年一季度重点省份债务风险化解稳步推进，发行总额同比仅下降 0.77%，净 融资额由负转正，但严监管政策对于非重点省份的影响仍较明显，非重点省份发行额及 净融资额均有所下降。 第五、新增发行主要集中于经济财政实力或区域产业具有相对优势的区域，重点省份新 增发行债券较少。2025 年一 ...

图说债市月报 2025 年 3 月 1 日 — 3 月 3 1 日 债券市场研究系列 关注关税冲突下利率走势变化 ——2025 年 3 月图说债市月报 作者： 中诚信国际 研究院 侯天成 tchhou@ccxi.com.cn 卢菱歌 lglu@ccxi.com.cn 谭 畅 chtan@ccxi.com.cn 联系人： 中诚信国际研究院 院长 袁海霞 hxyuan@ccxi.com.cn 【图说债市月报】债市调整幅度较大，降准降 息仍有机会密切关注资金面动态-2025年2月 【图说债市月报】发行升温信用风险整体可 控，多空交织或加大债市波动-2025年1 月 隐性债务监管高压态势不变强调防范"处置风险的风险" 信用债发行升温收益率普遍下行， 本期要点 展望及策略建议 展望后市，债市流动性或有缓和，但波动风险仍需警惕。3 月中下旬以来，央 行通过 MLF 操作等加大流动性呵护力度，央行副行长也多次表示将根据国内外 经济金融形势"择机降准降息"，强化市场对宽松政策的预期。近期关税冲突 推升避险情绪，带动债券市场走强，但潜在波动风险仍需关注。4 月 2 日，美 国宣布多项关税政策，对我国加征 34%个性化对等关税， ...

2025 年 4 月 热点点评 中美关税博弈再起： 作者： 中诚信国际 研究院 卢菱歌 lglu@ccxi.com.cn 郝云龙 ylhao@ccxi.com.cn 谭 畅 chtan@ccxi.com.cn 中诚信国际研究院 院长 袁海霞 hxyuan@ccxi.com.cn 民企债券融资支持力度再升级，新举措能 否带来新突破？——交易商协会民企14 条 点评，2025 年 3 月 4 月 2 日，美国宣布多项关税政策，对贸易伙伴设立 10%的"最低 基准关税"，并对部分贸易伙伴征收更高关税，其中对我国加征 34% 个性化对等关税，同时计划终止从中国内地和中国香港输美小额包裹 的免税待遇。我国也快速反应进行反制，4 月 4 日国务院宣布自 4 月 10 日起，对原产于美国的进口商品，在现行适用关税税率基础上加征 34%关税。本次美国对等关税范围和税率均大幅超出市场预期，中美 贸易摩擦再度升级，扰动资本市场表现，对经济修复、市场情绪和风 险偏好等多方面产生影响。对我国债券市场而言，相关影响或主要体 现在三方面： 一、加征关税影响我国进出口，避险情绪升温及基本面修复 承压短期利好债市 此次美国加征关税，短期内对 ...