Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 2 月 2 日星期一 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周五夜盘瓶片主力价格上下跌 50 元至 6274 元/吨。华东水瓶级瓶片价格 6320 元/ 吨（-65），华南瓶片价格 6350 元/吨（-50）。持仓方面，多头持仓减少 1401 手至 5.72 万手，空头持仓减少 964 手至 6.06 万手。 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 能源与化 | | | 【重要资讯】 1、供应和成本利润方面，本周国内聚酯瓶片产量为 29.9 万吨，环比-0.52 万吨。 国内聚酯瓶片产能利用率周均值为 64.6%，环比-1.1%；聚酯瓶片生产成本 5813 元， 环比+269 元/吨；聚酯瓶片周生产毛利为-48 元/吨，环比-7 元/吨。 2、2025 年 12 月中国聚酯瓶片出口 58.87 万吨，较上月增加 5.57 万吨，或+10.44%。 2025 年 1-12 ...

Morning session notice Morning session notice 早盘提示 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 2 月 2 日星期一 研究员： 刘洋 从业资格： F3063825 交易咨询资格：Z0016580 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情复盘】 | 上周五国债期货主力合约开盘多数持平，早盘冲高回落，午后窄幅波动，30 | 年期品 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 种跌幅较大，截至收盘 | 30 | 年期国债期货主力合约 | TL2603 | 下跌 | 0.23%，10 | 年期 | T ...

研究员： 纪晓云 从业资格： F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 Morning session notice 联系方式：010-56711796 | | | 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 2 月 2 日星期一 | 黑色建材 | 铁矿 | 铁矿: 偏多 | 【行情复盘】 周五铁矿收涨。夜盘收跌。 【重要资讯】 1、本周，五大钢材品种供应 823.17 万吨，周环比增 3.58 万吨，增幅为 0.4%；总 库存 1278.51 万吨，周环比增 21.43 万吨，增幅为 1.7%；周度表观消费量为 801.74 万吨，环比降 1.0%。 2、1月 29日，新口径 114家钢厂进口烧结粉总库存 3328.65万吨，环比上期增 239.83 万吨。进口烧结粉总日耗 115.08 万吨，环比上期减 0.91 万吨。库存消费比 28.92， 环比上期增 2.29。 3、Mysteel 调研 247 家钢厂高炉开工率 79%，环比上周增加 0.32 个百分点，同比 去年增加 1.02 个百分点；高炉炼铁产能利用率 85.4 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 2 月 2 日星期一 重要事项: 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 格林大华期货研究院所有 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 COMEX 黄金期货跌 8.35%报 4907.50 美元/盎司，COMEX 白银期货跌 25.50%报 85.25 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | ...

研究员： 张晓君 从业资格：F0242716 交易咨询资格：Z0011864 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 02 月 02 日星期一 联系方式：0371-65617380 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 上周五夜盘玉米期货震荡整理，截至夜盘收盘主力合约 2603 合约跌幅 0.26%，收于 | | | | | 2271 元/吨。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、中国粮油商务网监测数据显示截至1月30日北方港口四港玉米库存共计约163万 | | | | | 吨，北方港口到货情况较好，晨间集港超过3万吨。广东港口玉米库存66万吨，内贸 | | | | | 玉米日均出货在4.3万吨；饲料企业备货需求减弱，执行合同为主。 | | | | | 2、中储粮2026年第5周各公司玉米竞价采购计划共计56.62万吨，实际成交15.15万 | | | | | 吨，成交率27%；竞价销售计划共计21.57万 ...

联系方式：010-56711796 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 2 月 2 日星期一 研究员： 纪晓云 从业资格： F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 Morning session notice 早盘提示 | | | | | | | 钢材: 【行情复盘】 周五螺纹热卷收跌。夜盘收跌。 【重要资讯】 1、交通运输部：2025 年预计完成交通固定资产投资超 3.6 万亿元。 2、据产业在线最新发布的三大白电排产报告显示，2026 年 2 月空冰洗排产合计总 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黑色建材 | 钢材 | 2 震荡 | 量共计 2379 万台，较去年同期生产实绩下降 22.1%。 3、Mysteel 调研 95 家独立电弧炉钢厂春节停产情况，多集中在 2 月份停产，其中 月 1 日至 2 月 8 日停产钢厂最多，为 44 家，占 47.83%，接近一半水平。剩余 9 家钢厂将于 2 月 8 日之后陆续停产，最晚停产的钢厂将于 2 月 15 日停产。 4、湖北建筑钢材钢厂冬储调研显示，锁 ...

证监许可【2011】1288 号 农林畜产品分册 2026 年度报告中国期货期权市场年度报告 养殖饲料：将求岁德成，独抱深严虑 ——2026 年重点关注养殖去产能"预期差" 格林大华期货研究院 张晓君 交易咨询资格：Z0011864 摘要 2026 年玉米品种观点及操作建议——供求格局基本平衡，全年或维持区间运行 品种观点：中短期来看，围绕新季玉米驱动展开波段交易，下有支撑、上有压力或维持宽 幅区间交易思路。长期来看，仍然维持谷物替代+种植成本的定价逻辑，重点关注产业政 策导向。交易策略：中长期维持区间交易思路，在政策粮源投放前维持低多思路，上方空 间不宜过分乐观；待政策性粮源投放落地，关注波段高空机会。期货盘面下方支撑关注 2050-2100 元/吨，上方压力关注 2300-2350 元/吨。 2026 年生猪市场观点及操作建议——弱现实强预期下交易去产能'预期差' 品种观点：从母猪存栏来看 2026 年 7 月前生猪出栏头数仍处于较高水平，今年 10 月到明 年 2 月的母猪存栏、生产效率决定了明年 8-12 月的生猪头数供给。若未来几个月能繁母 猪存栏整体稳中略降，排除疫病影响则母猪存栏下降幅度相对有限 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The global economy has passed its peak and is starting to decline due to the continuous wrong policies of the United States [4] - The return of the United States to the Monroe Doctrine will have a profound and subversive impact on major asset classes such as the global economy, US bonds, US stocks, the US dollar, precious metals, and industrial metals [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro and Financial - Global Economy - Trump nominates Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair, and Warsh may face tasks like reducing the $6.6 trillion balance - sheet, controlling inflation, and maintaining central bank independence [1] - On January 31, spot silver prices plunged 36% and spot gold prices dropped over 12%, with the new Fed chair's attitude challenging the gold bull - market logic [1] - SpaceX is applying to launch up to 1 million satellites, and its IPO valuation is expected to exceed $1.5 trillion with over $50 billion in financing [1] - US December PPI rose 0.5% month - on - month, indicating inflation pressure in the wholesale sector [1] - Japan did not actually intervene in the foreign exchange market in January, and the future of the yen is uncertain [1] - The US plans a "massive bombing" of Iran, and if Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz, it will cut off the global energy artery [1] Global Economic Logic - Bridgewater's Dalio warns of a potential US civil war and capital control risks, and the US dollar index hits a 4 - year low [2] - The New York Fed inquires about the yen exchange rate, and the "Plaza Accord 2.0" is speculated [2] - Fed uncertainties may peak from July to November 2026, leading to a "flight from US assets" [2] - The Fed cuts interest rates by 25 basis points in December and buys $40 billion in short - term bonds monthly [2] - Las Vegas gambling revenue decline is similar to the 2008 financial crisis early warning [2] - The US abandons global hegemony and will adjust economic relations with China [2] - Consumer K - type differentiation intensifies in the US [2] - TSMC's Q4 performance signals the continuation of the AI boom [2] - SpaceX aims to achieve full rocket reusability this year, reducing space access costs by 100 times [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In January 2026, the corn futures first rose and then declined, the live hog futures had small gains and large losses, and the egg futures were stronger in the near - term and weaker in the long - term. The spot prices of corn, live hogs, and eggs also showed different trends [7][8]. - For corn, the short - term spot may fluctuate weakly, the medium - term maintains a wide - range trading idea, and the long - term pricing logic is substitution + planting cost, focusing on policy guidance [16]. - For live hogs, the first quarter of 2026 may see the price first rise and then fall, the second quarter may see the supply form an inflection point, and the second half of the year is expected to strengthen but with limited upside [46][47][48]. - For eggs, the short - term price may weaken due to the end of pre - festival stocking, the medium - term may face a supply - demand imbalance after the Spring Festival, and the long - term price increase space may be limited by the continuous expansion of the breeding scale [72]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Previous Review - **Spot Review**: In January, the corn spot price fluctuated slightly stronger; the live hog price first rose and then declined; the egg price continued to rise supported by consumption [7]. - **Futures Review**: In January, the corn futures led the spot price and rose in shock; the live hog futures first rose and then fell, and the egg futures were stronger in the near - term and weaker in the long - term [8]. - **Strategy Review**: The previous strategies for corn, live hogs, and eggs were verified by the market [9]. 3.2 Corn Variety - **Macro Logic**: Internationally, the macro - drive is gradually weakening; domestically, it is mainly reflected in industrial policies [13]. - **Industry Logic**: It has entered the passive inventory - building cycle, focusing on policies such as reserve purchases, directional rice/imported corn auctions, and grain import policies [13]. - **Supply - Demand Logic**: The domestic corn supply - demand pattern in the 2025/26 period has turned to basic balance. In February 2026, the spot market may become lighter. Supply is affected by international and domestic factors, and demand is mainly from the breeding and deep - processing industries [14][15]. - **Variety View**: Short - term, the spot may fluctuate weakly; medium - term, maintain a wide - range trading idea; long - term, focus on policy orientation [16]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term, the market is weak, and the 2603 and 2605 contracts have support levels; medium - and long - term, maintain an interval trading idea [17]. 3.3 Live Hog Variety - **Macro Logic**: Pay attention to the interaction between China's CPI trend and hog prices, and focus on industrial policy orientation [43]. - **Industry Logic**: The breeding market structure may change under the guidance of capacity - reduction policies. The reduction of the sow inventory of leading group enterprises has basically been achieved, and the large - scale decline of the sow inventory in the next few months is unlikely [43]. - **Supply - Demand Logic**: Supply is affected by factors such as sow inventory, new - born piglets, production efficiency, and slaughter weight; demand is weak after the Spring Festival [44]. - **Market View**: The first quarter of 2026 may see the price first rise and then fall; the second quarter may see the supply form an inflection point; the second half of the year is expected to strengthen but with limited upside [46][47][48]. 3.4 Egg Variety - **Macro Logic**: Domestically, pay attention to raw material prices and CPI changes, and in the second half of the year, pay attention to the impact of meat and vegetable prices [69]. - **Industry Logic**: The market share of leading enterprises in the egg - laying hen breeding industry is relatively low. The industry is expected to transform from traditional decentralized breeding to intensive breeding, and the scale rate is expected to increase [70]. - **Supply - Demand Logic**: Egg prices are mainly driven by the supply side, and consumption is seasonally driven. The current capacity reduction is less than expected, and it is difficult to start a cycle - type market driven by over - culling [71]. - **Variety View**: Short - term, the price may weaken due to the end of pre - festival stocking; medium - term, the supply - demand imbalance may intensify after the Spring Festival; long - term, the price increase space may be limited by the continuous expansion of the breeding scale [72]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term, maintain a short - selling idea for near - term contracts; medium - and long - term, the capacity may be difficult to clear effectively in the first quarter, and breeding enterprises are recommended to lock in profits through far - term contracts [73].

2026年2月1日 1月30日COMEX黄金期货跌8.35%报4907.50美元/盎司，COMEX白银期货跌25.50%报85.25美元/盎司%。上周 五夜盘沪金主力合约下跌9.83%报1079.28元/克，沪银主力合约下跌17%报24832元/千克，沪银跌停。我们认为美 国总统提名美联储前理事沃什担任美联储主席仅仅是导火索，重要的是市场之前的连续大涨积累了大量的获利 盘，市场变得十分拥挤，而导火索则引发了获利回吐，并发生连锁反应，引起了市场的踩踏。期货市场是保证 金交易，如果不能及时补充保证金，则会被强制平仓，之前的多头仓位就转变成为空头的力量。为应对突然下 跌影响持有期货或期权的机构进行对冲操作，也可能助推了这次贵金属抛售。 市场快讯---金银大幅回落之后 美国总统称要求沃什降息不合适，降息无需白宫施压。沃什的专业履历有助于顺利通过美国国会的审批。 我们认为沃什虽然曾公开批评量化宽松政策的副作用，认为美联储需要与美国财政部在政策上更紧密地协作， 但并不能因此将沃什归为鹰派，沃什并不反对降息，而且美国总统经过权衡之后主动选择的人选至少不会和白 宫对着干。维护美联储的独立性，有利于市场回归有序的货币政策轨道， ...