Group 1: Fiscal Policy and Economic Expansion - China is entering a new round of economic expansion, necessitating the release of local government constraints[6] - The fourth quarter will see a significant acceleration in fiscal spending, which is expected to boost industrial product prices, particularly in the black series[9] - The increase in fiscal spending is aimed at recovering the physical volume lost from January to August and achieving the annual fiscal spending targets[9] Group 2: Debt and Local Government Support - A substantial increase in debt limits to support local governments in resolving hidden debts is deemed necessary[5] - The current fiscal challenges stem from the 1990s tax-sharing reform, which has led to a reliance on land and real estate revenues for local governments[5] - The central government aims to replace local government debt with central debt to restore local government vitality[5] Group 3: Market Reactions and Predictions - The announcement of the incremental fiscal amount is expected by the end of October, influenced by the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions[10] - The market has largely anticipated the content of the incremental fiscal policy, leading to limited immediate impact on the equity market[11] - The Shanghai Composite Index is expected to stabilize around the 3200-point level, with potential for a new upward trend post-U.S. elections[12]

Group 1: Market Performance - The black sector experienced a significant increase, with rebar rising by 1.88%, iron ore by 2.23%, coking coal by 2.28%, coking by 3.08%, soda ash by 6.35%, and glass by 6.69% during the night session on Friday[3] - The overall increase in the black sector is attributed to expectations of strong fiscal stimulus policies following the Ministry of Finance's press conference on October 12[3] Group 2: Fiscal Policy Insights - The Ministry of Finance announced a series of targeted incremental policy measures to stabilize growth, expand domestic demand, and mitigate risks, including increased debt quotas for local governments to alleviate hidden debt risks[4] - Special government bonds will be issued to support state-owned banks in replenishing core tier one capital, enhancing their risk resistance and credit issuance capabilities[4] Group 3: Industry Impact - The fiscal policies are expected to boost market sentiment in the short term and support the black sector's performance, particularly in real estate and infrastructure[5] - In the real estate sector, measures to stabilize prices and improve demand are anticipated to enhance cash flow for property companies, which may lead to increased steel demand[5] Group 4: Price Predictions - Short-term predictions for steel and iron ore suggest a bullish trend, with rebar support at 3320 and resistance at 3780, while iron ore is expected to fluctuate between 700 and 845[6] - Coking coal and coke are projected to maintain strong support levels at 1400 and 2050, respectively, with potential for further upward movement due to high demand for iron and steel[6]

Group 1: Fiscal Policy Overview - The Ministry of Finance stated that China has sufficient fiscal resilience to achieve budget balance and meet annual targets[1] - From January to September 2024, national general public budget expenditure reached 20.18 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2%[1] - The total national general public budget expenditure for 2024 is projected at 28.549 trillion yuan, reflecting a 4% year-on-year growth[1] Group 2: Debt Management and Support Measures - The central government will allocate 400 billion yuan from local government debt limits to support local financial capacity and address existing project debts[1] - There is a total of 2.3 trillion yuan in special bond funds available for use in the next three months[1] - The Ministry plans to increase the debt limit significantly to replace local government hidden debts, marking the largest support measure for debt resolution in recent years[3] Group 3: Economic Stimulus and Social Support - A package of targeted policies will be introduced to stabilize growth, expand domestic demand, and mitigate risks, including support for local debt resolution and capital replenishment for state-owned banks[3] - The Ministry has allocated 66.7 billion yuan in employment subsidies to support key groups such as recent graduates[3] - Future policies will focus on enhancing support for vulnerable groups and optimizing tax policies related to housing[3] Group 4: Market Reactions and Expectations - The market anticipates increased fiscal transfers to local governments to cover budget shortfalls and ensure necessary expenditures[4] - The bond market is expected to remain in a volatile state as it awaits clarity on future policy measures[4] - The overall direction of fiscal policy is confirmed to be an increase in counter-cyclical adjustments, with gradual implementation expected[4]

Group 1: Policy Implementation - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has established the Securities, Funds, and Insurance companies Swap Facility (SFISF) to enhance the stability of the capital market[2] - The initial operation scale of the SFISF is set at 500 billion yuan, with potential for expansion based on market conditions[2] - The SFISF allows eligible non-bank financial institutions to exchange high-quality liquid assets like government bonds and central bank bills without directly increasing the monetary base[2] Group 2: Operational Details - The swap facility operates on a "bond-for-bond" basis, improving the financing capacity of non-bank institutions[2] - The maximum term for the swap facility is one year, with the possibility of extension upon maturity[2] - The range of acceptable collateral may be expanded in the future based on market conditions[2] Group 3: Market Impact - The funds obtained through the SFISF can only be used for stock market investments, thereby strengthening bullish sentiment in the equity market[2] - The PBOC will conduct operations through designated primary dealers, potentially including the China Bond Credit Enhancement Company[2]

美联储历次降息期间棉花涨跌幅统计 1日 GELIN DAHUA FUTURES CO.,LTD. | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

研究所专题报告 2024 年 9 月 19 日 美联储降息对能化商品影响 | --- | --- | |-----------------------|-------| | | | | | | | 研 究 员：吴志桥 | | | 投资咨询证：Z0019267 | | | 从业资格：F3085283 | | | 联系电话：15000295386 | | | | | 部 新加盟 新疆 新加盟 摘 要 美国联邦储备委员会 18 日宣布，将联邦基金利率目标 区间下调 50 个基点，降至 4.75%至 5.00%之间的水平。这 是美联储自 2020 年 3 月以来的首次降息，也标志着由货币 政策紧缩周期向宽松周期的转向。 美联储降息 50 点属于靴子落地。隔夜原油受美国经济 衰退的担忧继续承压，短期对国内定价的商品影响有限， 海外能源端受需求拖累难有很好表现，继续观察海外宏观 数据指引。 2024 年四季度-25 年资本市场重点关注欧美降息力度， 而短期海外补库存力度有限，偏国内定价的商品如甲醇和 尿素仍然受制于内外需求孱弱，供应增加的格局，价格上 涨乏力；而化纤类自身基本面处于高供给高库存的状态， 下游需求旺季成色表 ...

om 宏观经济专题报告 2024 年 9 月 19 日 美联储预防式降息 摘要 研究所 Liuyang18036@greendh.c 今日凌晨美联储 9 月议息会议宣布决定，美国联邦基金利 率的目标区间从 5.25%到 5.50%降至 4.75%至 5.0%，降幅 50 个 基点。本次美联储会议后公布的点阵图显示，相比 6 月份会议 研 究 员：刘洋 从业资格：F3063825 公布的点阵图，美联储官员对最近三年降息的预期力度大幅提 投资咨询：Z0016580 升。美联储会后公布的经济展望显示，美联储认为美国未来通 胀会连续下行，向 2%逐步靠拢，则通胀不再成为美联储降低 利率的制约，同时美联储对今年和接下来两年的美国经济的增 速预期变化不大，但对失业率预期上升，这就是本次美联储点 阵图预期未来利息较 6 月份下降更快的原因。 部落 联 系 方 式 ： 鲍威尔在昨晚的讲话中表明观点，不认为大幅降息说明美 国经济衰退临近，也不说明就业市场濒临崩溃的边缘，降息更 多是一种预防性质的行动，目的是保持住经济和劳动力市场 "稳健"的现状。鲍威尔也对未来美联储的降息路径做了说明， 美联储未来可以加快降息速度，如果合适，可 ...

宏观经济专题报告 2024 年 9 月 14 日 8 月经济表现如何 摘要 研究所 从业资格：F3063825 投资咨询：Z0016580 Liuyang18036@greendh.c om 1-8 月全国固定资产投资同比增长 3.4%，市场预期 3.5%， 1-7 月同比增长 3.6%。分类来看，1-8 月广义基建投资（含电 力）同比增长 7.87%，1-7 月同比增长 8.14%。1-8 月制造业投 研 究 员：刘洋 资同比增长 9.1%，1-7 月同比增长 9.3%。1-8 月全国房地产开 发投资同比下降 10.2%，与 1-7 月持平。8 月制造业投资继续 联 系 方 式 ： 保持较高增速，广义基建投资增速有所回落，房地产投资继续 较大幅度负增长。 部落 1-8 月份，全国新建商品房销售面积同比下降 18.0%，1-7 月份同比下降 18.6%。8 月份，70 大中城市二手住宅销售环比 价格降幅总体较上月扩大，房价仍在探底过程中。8 月份规模 以上工业增加值同比实际增长 4.5%，略低于市场预期的 4.7%。 以美元计价，中国 8 月出口同比增长 8.7%，预期增 7.0%，前 值增 7.0%。上海出 ...

宏观经济专题报告 2024 年 9 月 14 日 8 月新增信贷符合预期 | --- | --- | |-------|------------------------| | | 研究所 | | 研 究 | 员：刘洋 | | | 从业资格：F3063825 | | | 投资咨询：Z0016580 | | 联 系 | 方 式 ： | | | Liuyang18036@greendh.c | | om | | | | | 部 新加盟 摘要 8 月份社融规模增加 3.03 万亿元，市场预期增加 2.7 万亿 元，比上年同期少 981 亿元。8 月对实体经济发放的人民币贷 款增加 10441 亿元，同比少增 2971 亿元，是 8 月社融同比少 增的主要原因。8 月企业债券净融资 1692 亿元，同比少 1096 亿元，较前两个月下滑，原因是 8 月信用债利率有所上行，部 分企业选择取消发行。8 月政府债券发行加速，8 月政府债券 净融资增加 16130 亿元，同比多 4371 亿元。 8月信贷口径人民币贷款增加9000亿元，与市场预期8850 亿元基本一致，同比少增 4600 亿元。企业中长期贷款新增 4900 亿 ...

Inflation Data and Fed Rate Cut Expectations - US August CPI rose 2.5% YoY, down from 2.9% in the previous month, indicating a continued slowdown in inflation[2] - Core CPI (excluding food and energy) rose 0.3% MoM, the largest increase in four months, showing persistent inflation stickiness[1][2] - Housing costs, particularly rent, were the main drivers of inflation, with owner-equivalent rent (OER) rising 0.5% MoM, the largest increase since January[3] - Core services inflation, excluding housing and energy, also rose 0.3% MoM, the highest since April[3] - The CPI decline to 2.5% is close to the 2% benchmark, providing a basis for the Fed to start a rate cut cycle in September[3] Market Expectations and Fed Policy - Market expectations for a 50bps rate cut in September have diminished due to resilient core CPI and declining unemployment[3] - Citi withdrew its 50bps rate cut expectation but still anticipates a total of 125bps cuts within the year, while JPMorgan maintains its 50bps expectation[3] - The Fed is expected to cut rates by 25bps in September, with the market having largely priced in this expectation[1][3] Gold Market and "Shoe Drop" Effect - Gold prices have been rising since March 2024, driven by expectations of a Fed rate cut cycle[4] - If the Fed only cuts rates by 25bps in September, the "shoe drop" effect could lead to a gold price correction, prompting a recommendation to close long positions[4]