| 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、数据显示，以美元计价的 MSCI 亚太地区股票指数，今年含股息的回报率高达 | | | | | 27%。这也是自 2020 年以来，亚太股市首次在一年内同时跑赢欧美基准指数。金融 | | | | | 市场的复苏反映出，亚洲对寻求更快增长的投资者吸引力正日益增强。 | | | | | 2、高盛分析师认为，中国股市周期正从'预期驱动'转向'盈利驱动'，在这一 | | | | | 阶段，盈利兑现与估值温和扩张将成为推动回报的核心动力。报告指出，中国企业 | | | | | 盈利明年可能增长 14%，2027 年或继续增长 12%；而估值扩张程度或在 10%左右。 | | | | | 3、投行观点认为，现实中美联储已为财政融资兜底，财政与货币边界趋于消失， | | | | | 贝森特正成为事实上的"影子联储主席"。若这一模式延续，2026 年名义上的美联 | | | | | 储主席或将靠边站，真正的"老板"可能是财政部。 | | | | | 4、国际半导体产业协会（SEM ...

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View - The customs clearance vehicles at the 288 Port have been operating at a high level. As of December 22, the average daily customs clearance vehicles in December were 1,482, a 9.83% increase from the average daily vehicles in November (1,349), and it is at the highest monthly average customs clearance level of the year and continues to climb [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Customs Clearance Data - On December 23, there is VIP customer data on the daily customs clearance data of the Ganqimaodu Port [1] - The table shows the customs clearance data of the 288 Port from December 4 - 22, 2025, including customs clearance vehicle numbers, AGV numbers, total customs clearance vehicles, changes, and short - haul freight rates (all short - haul freight rates are 90) [6] Graphical Data - There is a graph showing the daily customs clearance vehicles and monthly average customs clearance levels of the 288 Port, but specific data on the graph is difficult to accurately summarize [2] Data Source - The customs clearance data of the 288 Port is from Palm Coal and Coke, and is sorted out by the Green Grand Futures Research Institute [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the bond market is "volatile" [1] Core View of the Report - The short - term trend of Treasury bond futures may be volatile, and trading - type investors are advised to conduct band operations [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Monday, most of the main contracts of Treasury bond futures opened higher, fluctuated downward in the morning, and then fluctuated horizontally after further decline in the afternoon. By the close, the 30 - year Treasury bond futures main contract TL2603 fell 0.28%, the 10 - year T2603 fell 0.09%, the 5 - year TF2603 fell 0.06%, and the 2 - year TS2603 fell 0.02% [1] Important Information - **Open Market**: On Monday, the central bank conducted 67.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 130.9 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, resulting in a net withdrawal of 63.6 billion yuan. The LPR quotes in December remained stable, with the 1 - year LPR at 3% and the over - 5 - year variety at 3.5% [1] - **Funds Market**: On Monday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank funds market remained low. The weighted average of DR001 throughout the day was 1.27% (the same as the previous trading day), and the weighted average of DR007 was 1.43% (compared with 1.44% in the previous trading day) [1] - **Cash Bond Market**: On Monday, the closing yields of inter - bank Treasury bonds mostly rose compared with the previous trading day. The yield to maturity of 2 - year Treasury bonds decreased by 1.00 BP to 1.37%, the 5 - year increased by 0.62 BP to 1.61%, the 10 - year increased by 1.07 BP to 1.84%, and the 30 - year increased by 1.60 BP to 2.24% [1] - **Policy Meeting**: On December 22, Premier Li of the State Council chaired a meeting of the leading group for the preparation of the "15th Five - Year Plan" Outline Draft to study the preparation work and plan a number of major projects, major projects, and major carriers [1] Market Logic - In November, fixed - asset investment decreased by 2.6% year - on - year, and social retail sales increased by 1.3% year - on - year, both lower than market expectations. The export growth rate in November was 5.9%, exceeding market expectations. China's CPI and core CPI both decreased by 0.1% month - on - month in November, while PPI increased by 0.1% month - on - month, with inflation remaining moderate. The latest macro - economic data shows that stabilizing growth is still the main line of the macro - economy in the fourth quarter. The People's Bank of China Party Committee meeting pointed out that next year, a moderately loose monetary policy will continue to be implemented, with promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery as important considerations for monetary policy. On Monday, the Wind All - A Index opened higher, moved higher, and then fluctuated horizontally, closing 0.98% higher than the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 1.88 trillion yuan, a slight increase from 1.75 trillion yuan in the previous trading day [1] Trading Strategy - Treasury bond futures may be volatile in the short term, and trading - type investors are advised to conduct band operations [2]

联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 23 日星期二 研究员： 刘洋 从业资格： F3063825 交易咨询资格：Z0016580 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 COMEX 黄金期货涨 2.13%报 4480.60 美元/盎司，COMEX 白银期货涨 2.37%报 69.09 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 美元/盎司。沪金收涨 1.60%报 1003.08 元/克，沪银涨 2.30%报 16126 元/千克。 【重要资讯】 1、截至 12 月 22 日，全球最大黄金 ETF--SPDR Gold Trust 持仓较上日增加 12.02 吨，当前持仓量为 1064.56 吨。全球最大白银 ETF--iShares Silver Trust 持仓较 上日增加 533.01 吨，为 2023 年 1 月以来的最大单日增幅，当前持仓量为 16599.2 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 Morning session notice 早盘提示 研究员： 王子健 从业资格：F03087965 交易咨询资格：Z0019551 联系方式：17803978037 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 23 日星期二 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棉花 | 偏 ...

Morning session notice | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 昨日焦煤主力合约 Jm2605 收于 1114.0，环比日盘开盘上涨 0.54%；焦炭主力合约 J2605 收于 1743.5，环比日盘开盘上涨 0.20%。昨日夜盘，Jm2605 收于 1123.0，环比日盘收 盘上涨 1.67%；J2605 合约收于 1740.0，环比日盘收盘下跌 0.20%。 【重要资讯】 1、央行发布一次性信用修复政策有关安排，针对特定时期内、单笔金额在 1 万元以下 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黑色 | 焦煤、 | 区间震荡 | 的小额个人逾期信息，将实施一次性信用修复，"免申即享"，信用卡、房贷、消费贷 等均可适用。 2、焦炭第三轮提降落地：自 2025 年 12 月 22 日 0 时起，河北市场钢厂对焦炭采购价下 调，山东市场主流钢厂对焦炭采购价湿熄下调 50 元/吨，干熄下调 55 元/吨。 3、2025 年 12 月 22 日山西太原市华润联盛原相焦煤（A9.5 S0.45 V21 G85）竞拍，起 拍价 1465 元/吨，数量 0.2 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The global economy is rated as (turning weak) [1] Core Viewpoints - The global economy is turning weak as the US makes a series of wrong policies and returns to the Monroe Doctrine, which will have a profound and subversive impact on major asset classes [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Important Information - Precious metals soar, with spot gold above 4400, silver hitting a new high, and platinum breaking the $2000 mark for the first time in 16 years due to the Fed's rate - cut expectations and geopolitical risks [1] - Wall Street expects high volatility in US stocks in 2026, and suggests a hedging strategy of going long on the Nasdaq 100 index volatility and short on the S&P 500 index volatility [1] - Dalio warns that the current market wealth based on unfulfilled expectations may lead to market adjustments or crises when converted to money [1] - The shipment of NVIDIA's GB300 AI server cabinets is expected to reach 55,000 units next year, a 129% year - on - year increase, driven by tech giants, and the next - generation Vera Rubin 200 platform will start shipping in Q4 next year [1] - The AI data center construction boom attracts various players, but there are concerns about AI bubbles due to project delays and contract terminations [1] - The US is promoting large - scale space militarization, with a $3.5 billion military satellite order issued [1] - Musk's net worth soars to $749 billion, becoming the first person to exceed $700 billion, due to a court decision on Tesla stock options [1] - The "stable return" myth for retail investors on Wall Street is broken, with BDC stocks of top institutions plummeting and bad loan rates rising [1] Global Economic Logic - Israel's potential attack on Iran causes gold prices to hit new highs, and the Fed cuts rates by 25 basis points in December and buys $40 billion in short - term bonds monthly [2] - Trump wants the next Fed chair to believe in "substantial rate cuts", and some traders are betting on a Q1 rate cut [2] - Goldman Sachs warns that the decline in Las Vegas gambling revenue is similar to the 2008 financial crisis warning [2] - The US releases a new National Security Strategy, adjusting economic relations with China to revive its economic autonomy [2] - The Fed's Beige Book shows a K - shaped consumer divide in the US, with high - income spending remaining resilient and low - income tightening belts [2] - The Bank of Japan raises rates by 25 basis points, and the 10 - year Japanese government bond yield rises to 2.0% [2] - Google aims to double AI computing power every 6 months and achieve a 1000 - fold increase in 4 - 5 years [2] - NVIDIA's Huang Renxun believes China will win the AI race due to regulatory and energy cost advantages [2] - JPMorgan estimates that AI data center construction will require at least $5 trillion in the next five years [2] - The US unemployment rate rises to 4.6%, raising concerns about large - scale corporate layoffs as an economic warning [2]

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 23 日星期二 研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情复盘】 | 周一夜盘主力合约 | 2605 | 期货价格上涨 | 8 | 元至 | 2162 | 元/吨，华东主流地区甲醇现货价 | | | | | | | | | 格下跌 | 4 | 元至 | 2138 | 元/吨。持仓方面，多头持仓减少 | 25284 | 手至 | 51.9 | 万手，空头持 | 仓减少 | 16783 | 手至 | 63.5 | 万手。 | | | 【重要资讯】 | 1、供应方面，国内甲醇开工率 | 90.5%，环比+0.9%。海外甲醇开工 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 23 日星期二 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 联系方式：0371-65617380 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 昨日夜盘玉米期货窄幅震荡，截至夜盘收盘2603合约跌幅0.36%，收于2190元/吨。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、中国粮油商务网数据显示，昨日深加工企业收购价小幅上调。东北地区企业收购 | | | | | 均价2123元/吨，较上周五涨4元/吨；华北地区企业收购均价2281元/吨，较上周五 | | | | | 涨1元/吨。 | | | | | 2、中国粮油商务网数据显示，昨日南北港口价格弱稳为主。锦州港15%水二等玉米 | | | | | 收购价2240-2245元/吨，较上周五跌5元/吨；蛇口港散粮成交价2400元/吨，较上周 | | | | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the pure benzene in the energy and chemical industry is "Oscillating Bullish" [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of the main futures contract BZ2603 rose by 60 yuan to 5483 yuan/ton on Monday night, and the spot prices in East China and Shandong increased. The long - position decreased by 50 lots to 16,700 lots, and the short - position increased by 4 to 18,800 lots. The short - term price of pure benzene is expected to oscillate strongly, with the 03 contract reference range of 5420 - 5530 yuan/ton. Traders are advised to hold long positions [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - The price of the main futures contract BZ2603 rose by 60 yuan to 5483 yuan/ton on Monday night. The spot price in East China was 5325 yuan/ton (up 40 yuan from the previous period), and in Shandong, it was 5156 yuan/ton (up 24 yuan from the previous period). The long - position decreased by 50 lots to 16,700 lots, and the short - position increased by 4 to 18,800 lots [1] Important Information - **Supply**: In November 2025, the domestic pure benzene output was 1.918 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.93%. There were many planned overhauls in December. In October, the import volume was 496,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.1%. A refinery in East China plans to overhaul a 10 - million - ton atmospheric and vacuum distillation unit and a reforming unit in January 2026, affecting a pure benzene production capacity of 600,000 tons. In November 2025, the monthly import volume was 459,624.998 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.48% but a year - on - year increase of 5.93%. The cumulative import volume increased by 33.61% compared to the same period last year [1] - **Inventory**: As of December 22, 2025, the total commercial inventory of pure benzene at Chinese ports was 293,000 tons, a 13,000 - ton increase (4.6% month - on - month) from the previous period. From December 15th to 21st, the estimated arrival was about 33,000 tons, and the pick - up was about 20,000 tons [1] - **Demand**: The styrene operating rate was 69.1% (up 1% month - on - month), the phenol operating rate was 75% (down 4% month - on - month), the caprolactam operating rate was 74.1% (down 0.4% month - on - month), the aniline operating rate was 61.3% (down 14.6% month - on - month), and the adipic acid operating rate was 59.6% (up 0.4% month - on - month). Caprolactam factories started to cut production voluntarily, and there was an expected reduction in monthly pure benzene demand from December 2025 to January 2026. The second production line of Guangxi Hengyi's caprolactam project was put into operation [1] - **International Oil Prices**: Due to concerns about the escalation of the US - Venezuela situation, international oil prices rose. The NYMEX crude oil futures 02 contract rose 1.49 dollars to 58.01 dollars/barrel (a 2.64% month - on - month increase), the ICE Brent crude oil futures 02 contract rose 1.60 dollars to 62.07 dollars/barrel (a 2.65% month - on - month increase). The China INE crude oil futures 2602 contract rose 5.2 to 432.6 yuan/ton and 8.7 to 441.3 yuan/ton in night trading [1] - **US Economic Data**: The US November CPI increased by 2.7% year - on - year, lower than market expectations. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in January 2026 rose from 26.6% to 28.8%, and traders bet that the Fed would cut interest rates by 62 basis points next year [1] Market Logic - The opening of the Asia - America regional arbitrage window may ease future port arrival pressure. Crude oil rebounded from a low this week. The pure benzene port inventory increased slightly but at a slower pace, and the downstream operating rate on the demand side declined. The transaction prices in East China and Shandong rebounded yesterday. The short - term price of pure benzene is expected to oscillate strongly. Future attention should be paid to port arrival volume and the future US - dollar - denominated pure benzene market transaction price [1] Trading Strategy - Hold long positions [1]