Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 50.76 CNY over the next six months, compared to the current price of 41.47 CNY [1]. Core Insights - The company is a leader in the electric two-wheeler market, with a clear growth trajectory expected due to favorable policies and market conditions. The implementation of new national standards and trade-in policies in 2025 is anticipated to drive significant sales growth in the industry [6][17]. - The company is expected to benefit from a projected industry sales increase to 57.48 million units in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.8% [6]. - The company is expanding its product offerings into high-margin leisure tricycles, which currently have a low penetration rate of 4.3% among target demographics, indicating substantial growth potential [6]. - The company is also strategically entering overseas markets, particularly in Indonesia and Vietnam, where there is a trend of transitioning from gasoline to electric vehicles, thus opening new growth avenues [6]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has been a pioneer in the electric two-wheeler industry since its establishment in 1999, transitioning through various phases of development and focusing on digital transformation and international expansion [17][19]. Industry Analysis - The electric two-wheeler market is characterized by strong demand driven by urbanization and the need for convenient short-distance transportation. The market is expected to grow significantly due to new regulations and policies promoting electric vehicles [25][28]. - The industry is moving towards higher quality standards, with the new national standards set to enhance safety and performance requirements for electric bicycles [47][48]. Financial Analysis - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 210.36 billion CNY in 2023 to 311.99 billion CNY by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15.2% expected for net profit from 2024 to 2026 [2][6]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to remain strong, with a slight decline from 24.37% in 2023 to 21.47% by 2026, reflecting ongoing profitability despite increased competition [2]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report anticipates a significant increase in the company's electric two-wheeler sales, reaching 11.497 million units in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 40.7% [6]. - The company is valued at 18 times its earnings for 2025, supporting the target price of 50.76 CNY [6].

Core Insights - The report highlights a global risk-on sentiment emerging after tariff shocks, with A-shares, non-ferrous metals, and gold regaining confidence, reminiscent of the Q2 2024 market atmosphere [3] - Current macroeconomic conditions differ significantly from Q2 2024, with the global economy in a more fragile state, as evidenced by the global credit pulse peaking in Q2 2024 and a rapid decline in manufacturing sentiment [3][4] - The report suggests that the recent rebound in global risk assets is primarily driven by market fatigue regarding tariffs, particularly after the introduction of "gradual tariffs" in mid-January, which led to a nearly 10% increase in European stocks over the past month [3] Economic Environment - The U.S. economy is maintaining a delicate balance, with mixed signals from employment data and service sector PMI, indicating some underlying weakness [3] - The report draws parallels to the 2014-2015 credit pulse downturn, suggesting that while there may be short-term rebounds in commodities, the overall trend is likely to remain downward [3][4] - The report emphasizes caution regarding energy and industrial metals, while suggesting a more favorable outlook for agricultural products, particularly cotton, due to a projected 14% decrease in U.S. cotton planting area [3][7] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on agricultural products, particularly cotton, as the U.S. cotton planting intentions indicate a significant reduction, which could drive prices higher during the demand peak in March and April [3][7] - It is advised to remain vigilant regarding the macroeconomic backdrop, as the dollar has not yet broken previous support levels, and U.S. Treasury yields continue to indicate economic pressures [3][6]

202X`[Table_ReportInfo] 5 年 02 月 16 日 证券研究报告•市场周评 北交所双周报（2.5-2.14） 开年来北证 50 指数涨 16.3%，北交所业绩快报接连出炉 数据来源：同花顺 iFind | 基础数据（ [Table_QuotePic] 2.5-2.14） | | | --- | --- | | 成分股个数 | 264 | | 总市值（亿元） | 6501.09 | | 公司平均市值（亿元） | 24.63 | | 板块区间交易金额（亿元） | 2335.61 | | 平均周交易金额（亿元） | 8.85 | | 区间换手率（%） | 69.55 | 相关研究 摘要 西南证券研究发展中心 [Table_Author] 分析师：刘言 执业证号：S1250515070002 电话：023-67791663 邮箱：liuyan@swsc.com.cn 联系人：李艾莼 电话：17396222897 邮箱：liac@swsc.com.cn [板块相对指数表现 Table_QuotePic] -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 24-02 24-03 24-04 ...

Group 1: Social Financing Overview - In January 2025, the total social financing stock increased by 8% year-on-year, maintaining the growth rate from the end of 2024[3] - The social financing increment for January was 70,600 billion RMB, exceeding market expectations and up by 5,866 billion RMB compared to the same period last year[3] - The increase in RMB loans to the real economy was 52,200 billion RMB, which is 3,799 billion RMB more than the same month last year, ending a 14-month streak of year-on-year declines[3] Group 2: Financing Structure Improvement - In January 2025, RMB loans accounted for approximately 73.94% of the total social financing increment, up by 44.5 percentage points from December 2024[3] - New direct financing was 11,860 billion RMB, representing only 16.8% of the total, a decrease of 46 percentage points from December 2024[3] - Government bonds supported direct financing, with an increase of 3,986 billion RMB year-on-year, totaling 6,933 billion RMB in January[3] Group 3: Corporate and Household Lending - Corporate loans increased by 47,800 billion RMB in January, with short-term loans rising by 17,400 billion RMB, reflecting demand for year-end payments[4] - Household loans increased by 4,438 billion RMB, but this was a decrease of 5,363 billion RMB year-on-year, influenced by the timing of the Spring Festival[4] - The issuance of local government bonds in January was 5,576 billion RMB, a decrease of 5,337 billion RMB month-on-month but an increase of 1,731 billion RMB year-on-year[3] Group 4: Monetary Supply and Deposits - In January 2025, RMB deposits increased by 43,200 billion RMB, a decrease of 11,600 billion RMB year-on-year[5] - M2 growth was 7.0%, down by 0.3 percentage points from the previous month and 1.7 percentage points from the same month last year[5] - M1 growth was 0.4%, with a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month and a decline of 2.9 percentage points year-on-year[5]

Domestic Economic Policies - The Chinese government continues to adopt a moderately loose monetary policy to stimulate consumption and stabilize foreign investment[1] - The State Council approved the "2025 Action Plan for Stabilizing Foreign Investment" to address structural contradictions in key industries[1] - Shanghai's government has implemented a comprehensive policy package to support economic growth in Q1 2025, aiming for a GDP growth target of around 5%[12] Inflation and Consumer Trends - January's CPI in the U.S. increased by 3% year-on-year, exceeding expectations, which may reduce the likelihood of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in March[21] - The New York Fed's survey indicates that U.S. consumers expect inflation to remain at 3% for the next year and three years, with a rise in five-year inflation expectations to 3%[19] - In China, the government is focusing on enhancing consumer income and promoting consumption in key sectors, with a projected increase in consumer spending due to policies like "trade-in for new" initiatives[11] Commodity Prices and Market Trends - Brent crude oil prices rose by 0.79% week-on-week, while copper and iron ore prices increased by 1.62% and 1.02%, respectively[27] - In contrast, the price index for thermal coal decreased by 0.83%, and rebar prices fell by 0.65% week-on-week[31] - OPEC forecasts global oil demand to increase by 1.45 million barrels per day in 2025, maintaining previous estimates despite potential trade uncertainties[24]

Domestic Economic Policies - The Chinese government is continuing a moderately loose monetary policy to boost consumption and stabilize foreign investment, with a focus on enhancing residents' income and consumption capacity[1] - The State Council has approved the "2025 Action Plan for Stabilizing Foreign Investment," aiming to address structural contradictions in key industries and promote high-quality economic development[1] - Shanghai has introduced a comprehensive policy package to support economic recovery, targeting a GDP growth of around 5% for 2025[1] Inflation and Consumer Trends - January's CPI in the U.S. rose by 3% year-on-year, exceeding expectations, which may lead the Federal Reserve to reconsider the pace of interest rate cuts[2] - U.S. consumer inflation expectations for the next year and three years remain at 3%, while five-year expectations have increased from 2.7% to 3%[2] - In China, the first week of February saw a significant increase in real estate sales, with a week-on-week rise of 89.32%[4] Commodity Prices - Brent crude oil prices increased by 0.79% week-on-week, while copper and iron ore prices rose by 1.62% and 1.02%, respectively[4] - In contrast, the price index for thermal coal decreased by 0.83%, and rebar and cement prices fell by 0.65% and 0.09% respectively[4] Global Economic Outlook - OPEC forecasts a global oil demand increase of 1.45 million barrels per day in 2025, driven by growth in air and road transport[2] - The U.S. Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates may be influenced by rising inflation and economic strength, with a reduced likelihood of rate cuts in March[2]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the vaccine industry Core Insights - The overall situation for the vaccine industry in FY2024 shows a decline in the number of batches approved for most vaccine types, with some exceptions showing recovery [7] - Key vaccine types such as multi-combination vaccines, pneumonia vaccines, and HPV vaccines have experienced significant changes in their approval batches compared to previous years [3][29][31] Summary by Sections Multi-Combination Vaccines - In FY2024, the number of approved batches for multi-combination vaccines increased, with five-combination and four-combination vaccines showing growth [3][12] - The total approved batches for multi-combination vaccines reached 127, marking an 11% increase [12] Pneumonia Vaccines - The total approved batches for pneumonia vaccines decreased by 27% in FY2024, with 110 batches approved [18] - The 13-valent pneumonia vaccine saw a 23% decline, while the 23-valent pneumonia vaccine experienced a 34% drop [22][26] HPV Vaccines - The total approved batches for HPV vaccines fell by 64% in FY2024, totaling 195 batches [31] - The two-valent HPV vaccine saw a significant decline, with 89 batches approved, including a 78% drop for WanTai Biologics [31][34] Influenza Vaccines - The total approved batches for influenza vaccines decreased by 11% in FY2024, with 303 batches approved [38] - The four-valent influenza vaccine saw a 36% decline, totaling 166 batches approved [44] Rabies Vaccines - The total approved batches for rabies vaccines increased by 9% in FY2024, reaching 777 batches [51] - The growth was driven by the shift from liquid to freeze-dried products, with Chengda Biologics leading the market [54] Varicella Vaccines - The total approved batches for varicella vaccines decreased by 8% in FY2024, totaling 274 batches [60] - BaiKe Biologics held the largest market share with 98 batches approved [60] Hib Vaccines - The total approved batches for Hib vaccines fell by 5% in FY2024, with 37 batches approved [67] - Notably, Minhai Biologics increased its approved batches by 175% [68] EV71 Vaccines - The total approved batches for EV71 vaccines decreased by 17% in FY2024, totaling 73 batches [72] Rotavirus Vaccines - The total approved batches for rotavirus vaccines dropped by 29% in FY2024, with 109 batches approved [76] Meningitis Vaccines - The total approved batches for meningitis vaccines decreased by 13% in FY2024, totaling 414 batches [87] - The AC polysaccharide vaccine saw an increase in approved batches by 11% [92] Hepatitis B Vaccines - The total approved batches for hepatitis B vaccines increased by 35% in FY2024, reaching 332 batches [101] IPV Vaccines - The total approved batches for IPV vaccines decreased by 33% in FY2024, totaling 283 batches [103]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific companies [2]. Core Insights - The performance of major overseas technology companies in Q4 2024 showed a significant increase in net profit growth compared to revenue growth, leading to a continuous rise in EPS for 2024 [4][8]. - Capital expenditures for the four major overseas tech companies reached approximately $77.8 billion in Q4 2024, representing a year-over-year increase of 78% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 22%, primarily driven by investments in servers and data centers to meet the growing demand for AI and cloud computing [4][8]. - The demand for AI cloud services remains strong, but there is a notable shortage in computing capacity supply, which is expected to be a critical issue until mid-2025 [4][8]. - The digital advertising sector showed robust performance, with total advertising revenue for the four major companies reaching $140.1 billion in Q4 2024, a year-over-year increase of 15% [4][8]. Summary by Sections Performance Overview - In Q4 2024, the four major overseas tech companies collectively achieved revenues of $402.3 billion, with Meta leading in revenue growth at 21% year-over-year [8]. - Net profits totaled $91.5 billion, with Google reporting the highest net profit at $26.5 billion [8]. - The stock price performance post-earnings announcements varied significantly, with Meta's stock increasing by 1.6%, while Amazon, Microsoft, and Google saw declines of 4.1%, 6.2%, and 7.3% respectively [4][13]. Capital Expenditures - The total capital expenditure for the four companies is projected to reach $245 billion in 2024, a 64% increase year-over-year, and is expected to rise to $332.5 billion in 2025, a 36% increase [4][8]. Cloud Computing - The cloud business growth for the three major cloud providers was below market expectations in Q4 2024, primarily due to limited computing capacity [4][8]. - Companies are accelerating the development of self-researched ASICs to handle internal workloads and replace aging GPU servers [4][8]. Digital Advertising - The advertising revenue for the four major companies in Q4 2024 was $140.1 billion, with Meta achieving a 21% year-over-year growth [4][8]. - AI tools have significantly enhanced monetization efficiency across these companies [4][8].

2025 JPMorgan大会总结：中外药企共话创新浪潮 2025 JPMorgan大会总结 中外药企共话创新浪潮 西南证券研究发展中心 2025年2月 分析师：杜向阳 执业证号：S1250520030002 电话：021-68416017 邮箱：duxy@swsc.com.cn 分析师：王彦迪 执业证号：S1250524040001 邮箱：wydi@swsc.com.cn 分析师：汤泰萌 执业证号：S1250522120001 邮箱：ttm@swsc.com.cn 1 中国创新登上全球舞台。 2024年国产新药出海热潮持续，二代IO、减肥药、自免TCE、ADC等新机 制/靶点药物受到全球市场瞩目。2025年JPM大会中国药企登台展望创新药长期增长战略，同时积 极接触海外合作伙伴。 海外MNC药企：聚焦核心领域，加速管线研发。跨国药企为应对成熟品种专利悬崖，以自研+BD扩 张管线，蓄势未来增长。例如默沙东储备了丰富的肿瘤管线，同时拓展自免、减重、眼科等领域； 罗氏以自研品种重塑乳腺癌产品组合，以BD布局IBD、减重等领域大靶点。部分药企随着临床研发 推进逐步收缩管线，将资源聚焦于核心品种。例如诺华加大心血管肾 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 21.83, compared to the current price of HKD 15.34 [1]. Core Views - The company is on the verge of turning profitable, with the commercialization of surgical robots showing promising results. The years 2025-2026 are identified as critical turning points for profitability [6][57]. - The domestic market is expected to expand due to relaxed medical device configuration policies, with a significant increase in the planned number of laparoscopic surgical robots [6][43]. - The company has made significant strides in the overseas market, securing over 20 international orders in its first year of commercialization, aided by 5G remote surgery solutions [6][57]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue projections indicate a substantial increase from RMB 104.59 million in 2023 to RMB 1,368.07 million by 2026, reflecting growth rates of 384.15%, 173.16%, 108.01%, and 130.20% respectively [2]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to improve from a loss of RMB 1,012.17 million in 2023 to a profit of RMB 102.05 million in 2026, with growth rates of 11.20%, 42.60%, 46.57%, and 132.88% [2]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to rise from -1.01 in 2023 to 0.10 in 2026 [2]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has established a comprehensive portfolio of surgical robots, including laparoscopic, orthopedic, vascular, and percutaneous robots, with all four major product lines now commercialized [6][40]. - The company leads in domestic bids for laparoscopic surgical robots, with a significant share of the planned configurations in eastern and western regions of China [6][43][45]. - The report highlights the company's competitive edge in the domestic market, with a 52% bid success rate for new laparoscopic surgical systems [6][44]. Growth Drivers - The new medical device configuration policy is expected to facilitate the release of over 300 additional laparoscopic surgical robots in 2025-2026 [6][43]. - The company has successfully penetrated international markets, with rapid growth in overseas orders and the implementation of 5G remote surgery demonstrations across various regions [6][49]. - The report anticipates that the company will benefit from increased domestic demand and international expansion, projecting significant revenue growth across its product lines [6][57]. Valuation - The report uses a price-to-sales (PS) ratio for valuation, estimating a target PS of 15 times for 2026, leading to a target price of HKD 21.83 [6][57].