证券研究报告 | 2025年12月05日 银行业 2026 年经营展望：价格篇 优于大市 货币政策相机抉择，净息差下降尾声 目前大行净息差底线水平约 1.2%~1.3%，已在底线附近。（1）净息差底线思 维的必要性：从资本平衡、盈亏平衡以及风险定价机制等角度而言，净息差 维持一个合理水平是守住经济增长和金融稳定必要条件。（2）大行净息差 底线测算：首先，确定经济增速目标以及对应的银行业总资产增速。预计"十 五五"期间名义 GDP 增速为 6.0%~6.9%，对应的 M2 增速需要维持在约 7.0%~8.0%；根据 M2 派生方式，银行业总资产扩张速度约 6.0%~7.0%。然后， 资本角度测算，大行 ROE 底线约 7%~8%，据此测算净息差底线约 1.2%~1.3%。 若 LPR 下降 10bps，存款利率不调降，2026 年净息差同比下降约 5~8bps。 （1）首先，不考虑 LPR 继续下降，模型测算结果显示，2026 年贷款利 率下降约 24bps，存款利率下降约 14~17bps，对应的存贷业务拖累净息 差下降约 2~5bps。（2）不过我们判断 2026 年 LPR 大概率下降 10bps， 存款 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月05日 | 晨会纪要 | | --- | | 数据日期:2025-12-04 | 上证综指 | 深证成指沪深 | 300 指数 | 中小板综指 | 创业板综指 | 科创 50 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘指数（点） | 3875.79 | 13006.71 | 4546.56 | 13937.07 | 3749.90 | 1326.16 | | 涨跌幅度（%） | -0.05 | 0.39 | 0.34 | -0.06 | 0.23 | 1.36 | | 成交金额（亿元） | 6237.12 | 9252.47 | 3487.67 | 3137.25 | 4117.28 | 487.47 | $\frac{\pi\alpha}{\pi\alpha}\pm\frac{\pi\alpha}{\pi\alpha}$ (1998) (200) 行业与公司 计算机行业 2025 年 12 月投资策略暨财报总结-2025Q3：海外大厂业绩均 超预期，资本开支持续上行 北交所 2025 年 11 月月报：北证 50 震 ...

- The report does not contain any quantitative models or factors for analysis[1][2][3]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 5.2% in November, while the Nasdaq Internet Index decreased by 3.5% during the same period [11][13] - Individual stock performances varied, with JD Health, Meituan, and NetEase being the top performers in Hong Kong stocks, while Google, Vipshop, and Beike led in the US market [13][14] - The PE-TTM of the Hang Seng Tech Index slightly rebounded to 23.64x as of December 3, 2025, positioning it at the 34.41% percentile since its inception [16] AI Developments - Google launched Gemini 3 Pro and the new image generation and editing model NANO BANANA PRO [2][18] - OpenAI introduced the GPT-5.1 series model and ChatGPT group chat feature [22][23] - Meta's HSTN AI glasses are set to launch in India, while Microsoft upgraded its Copilot suite and introduced the Fara-7B model [27][30] Industry Dynamics - The domestic gaming market showed steady growth in October, with a record number of domestic game approvals in November [43][44] - Payment institutions' reserve funds increased by 8% year-on-year in October [45] - E-commerce platforms reported strong performance during the Double 11 shopping festival, with significant sales growth across various brands [48][49] Investment Strategy - The report suggests that AI is significantly empowering the advertising growth of internet giants, with Tencent's advertising business accelerating in Q3 [3] - Alibaba Cloud's growth accelerated to 34% year-on-year in Q3, up from 26% in the previous quarter [3] - The report recommends focusing on AI-driven stock selection, particularly highlighting Alibaba and Tencent as key investment opportunities [3]

2025年12月04日 证券研究报告 | 户外新消费研究：折叠自行车行业专题 高景气新消费赛道，龙头引领扩容与破圈 行业研究 · 行业专题 耐用消费品 投资评级：优于大市（维持） 0755-81981391 0755-81982606 010-88005446 dingshijie@guosen.com.cn chenweiqi@guosen.com.cn liujiaqi@guosen.com.cn lijing29@guosen.com.cn S0980520040004 S0980520110004 S0980523070003 S0980525080003 证券分析师：丁诗洁 证券分析师：陈伟奇 证券分析师：刘佳琪 证券分析师：李晶 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 报告摘要： 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 2 Ø 折叠自行车行业：小而美&高增速的新消费赛道。折叠自行车以轻巧+便携+适应城市生活为核心特点，成为城市通勤及休闲运动的新兴工具； 技术工艺迭代路径从追求便携轻巧到兼具专业性能。2019-2024年全球自行车需求整体平稳，折叠自行车渗透率低、增速快，在全球的销量渗 ...

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 5.2% in November, while the Nasdaq Internet Index decreased by 3.5% during the same period [11][13] - Individual stock performances varied, with JD Health, Meituan, and NetEase being the top performers in Hong Kong, while Google, Vipshop, and Beike led in the US market [13][14] - The price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) of the Hang Seng Tech Index slightly rebounded to 23.64x as of December 3, 2025, positioning it at the 34.41% percentile since its inception [16] AI Developments - Google launched Gemini 3 Pro and the new image generation and editing model NANO BANANA PRO, enhancing its AI capabilities [2][20] - OpenAI introduced the GPT-5.1 series model and ChatGPT group chat feature, marking significant advancements in AI interaction [22][24] - Tencent and Alibaba also made strides in AI, with Tencent releasing new models and Alibaba launching the AI Mode on its international platform [32][34] Industry Dynamics - The domestic gaming market showed steady growth in October, with a record number of domestic game approvals in November [43][44] - Payment institutions saw an 8% year-on-year increase in reserve funds in October, indicating a healthy growth trend in the fintech sector [45] - E-commerce platforms reported strong performance during the Double 11 shopping festival, with Tmall and JD achieving record sales [48][49] Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on AI-driven companies, particularly Alibaba and Tencent, as they are expected to benefit from AI's impact on advertising and cloud services [3][4] - The anticipated reduction in losses for food delivery services like Alibaba, Meituan, and JD in Q4 presents a favorable investment opportunity [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [5] Core Insights - The North Exchange 50 index experienced a significant decline of 12.32% in November 2025, with the index closing at 1,387.70 points [31] - The total number of listed companies on the North Exchange reached 285, with a total market capitalization of 827.155 billion and a circulating market value of 507.712 billion, reflecting a decrease of 10.2% and 11.2% respectively [11][18] - The report highlights that all sectors within the North Exchange experienced declines, with the most significant drops in household appliances, transportation, communication, automotive, and non-ferrous metals [35] Market Overview - The trading volume for November was 16.987 billion shares, with a total transaction value of 376.778 billion, marking a month-on-month increase of 9.9% in volume and 3.1% in value [18][21] - The average daily margin balance for the North Exchange in November was 7.789 billion, showing a month-on-month increase of 2.35% [22] Valuation Metrics - As of November 28, the North Exchange 50 index had a price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) of 43.07, placing it at the 67.98th percentile over the past two years, while the price-to-book ratio (PB-MRQ) was 8.89, at the 75.21st percentile [24][27] - The dividend yield was reported at 0.78, corresponding to the 26.56th percentile over the same period [24] Industry Performance - The report indicates that the North Exchange's specialized and innovative index fell by 13.44% in November, with other major indices also experiencing declines, including the Sci-Tech 50 down 6.24% and the ChiNext index down 4.23% [31] - The report notes that the North Exchange's new listings included five companies: Danna Biological, Zhongcheng Consulting, Beikang Testing, Dapeng Industrial, and Nante Technology [11][3] Policy and Events - In November 2025, the Beijing Stock Exchange introduced a series of policies aimed at enhancing market vitality and solidifying institutional foundations, achieving progress in information disclosure, institutional behavior, new stock performance, and ongoing supervision [4]

Core Insights - The report indicates that major overseas tech companies have exceeded market expectations in their Q3 2025 earnings, showcasing strong revenue growth and robust cloud business performance [1][11][33] - Capital expenditures (CapEx) for these companies continue to rise significantly, driven by investments in AI and cloud infrastructure, raising concerns about profit margins and return on investment [2][58][61] Company Summaries Microsoft - Microsoft reported Q1 FY26 revenue of $77.67 billion, a year-on-year increase of 18%, slightly above market expectations [11] - The intelligent cloud segment generated $30.9 billion in revenue, growing 28% year-on-year, with Azure cloud services seeing a remarkable 40% growth [12][15] - Capital expenditures reached $34.9 billion, a 74.5% increase year-on-year, primarily focused on AI and infrastructure investments [14][15] Meta - Meta's Q3 2025 revenue was $51.24 billion, up 26.25% year-on-year, surpassing both the upper limit of guidance and market expectations [19] - The company faced a significant drop in net profit due to a one-time tax asset impairment, but adjusted net profit was $18.6 billion [19][21] - Capital expenditures totaled $19.37 billion, primarily for servers and data centers, exceeding market expectations [23][26] Google - Google achieved Q3 2025 revenue of $102.35 billion, a 15.95% increase year-on-year, with net profit rising 32.99% [33][36] - The Google Cloud segment reported revenue of $15.16 billion, growing 33.51% year-on-year, driven by strong demand for AI products [36][42] - Capital expenditures for Q3 were $23.95 billion, with a forecasted increase for the full year to $91-93 billion [42] Amazon - Amazon's Q3 2025 revenue reached $180.17 billion, a 13% year-on-year increase, with net profit rising 38% [43][46] - AWS revenue was $33.01 billion, marking a 20% year-on-year growth, the highest quarterly growth rate in 2023 [46][52] - Capital expenditures were $34.2 billion, a 61% increase year-on-year, with expectations for continued growth in FY2026 [52][56] Market Trends - The report highlights a trend of increasing capital expenditures across major tech firms, indicating a competitive "arms race" in AI and cloud infrastructure [58][61] - Investors are advised to monitor financial performance indicators such as revenue growth, gross margins, and changes in CapEx guidance, as these will impact long-term cash flow and profitability [3][62]

Macro and Strategy - The report discusses the ongoing expansion and diversification of public REITs in China, highlighting the inclusion of various asset types and industries, with a projected market size increase of 2.3 to 3.8 trillion yuan, indicating a potential 10-16 times expansion compared to the current scale [7][8][10] - The average dividend yield of public REITs from 2022 to 2025 is 5.73%, which is higher than the average yield of the CSI Dividend Index at 5.52%, showcasing their attractiveness as a stable income asset [8][9] - Public REITs are characterized by a dual return structure comprising dividend income and asset appreciation, with a significant portion of returns coming from dividends over longer investment horizons [9][10] Industry and Company - The Chinese duty-free industry is entering a new cycle, with Hainan's duty-free sales experiencing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 39% from 2011 to 2019, but facing a decline of 37% from peak sales due to various market pressures [17][18] - Recent data indicates a recovery in Hainan's duty-free sales, with year-on-year growth of 3%, 13%, and 27% from September to November 2025, suggesting a positive trend in high-end consumption [18][19] - The report emphasizes the importance of policy support and market dynamics in shaping the future of the duty-free sector, with expectations for continued growth driven by improved consumer confidence and strategic policy enhancements [19][20][21] Automotive Industry - The report highlights the rapid advancements in smart driving technology, with companies like Tesla and Huawei leading the way in achieving Level 4 automation through innovative algorithms and architectures [24][25] - The penetration rate of smart driving technologies is expected to see significant growth, with projections indicating an increase from 11.3% to 26.3% for highway navigation assistance (NOA) by 2025 [25] - The global market for robotaxi services is projected to reach nearly 10 trillion yuan, with companies like Waymo and Apollo at the forefront of commercialization efforts [25][26] Non-Banking Sector - The report outlines the importance of the second pillar of the pension system in China, focusing on the development of enterprise and occupational pensions to address the challenges of an aging population [26][27] - The occupational pension system has achieved full coverage, while enterprise pensions are expanding from state-owned to private enterprises, indicating a shift towards a more diversified pension landscape [27][28] - The investment strategy for pension funds is evolving towards a "barbell" approach, balancing stable income-generating assets with growth-oriented investments in technology and manufacturing sectors [28]

Core Insights - The report indicates that major overseas tech companies have exceeded market expectations in their Q3 2025 earnings, showcasing strong revenue growth and robust cloud business performance [1][11][33] - Capital expenditures (CapEx) for these companies continue to rise significantly, driven by investments in AI and cloud infrastructure, raising concerns about cash flow and return on investment [2][58][61] Company Summaries Microsoft - Microsoft reported Q1 FY26 revenue of $77.67 billion, a year-on-year increase of 18%, slightly above market expectations [11] - The intelligent cloud segment generated $30.9 billion in revenue, growing 28% year-on-year, with Azure cloud services seeing a remarkable 40% growth [12][15] - Capital expenditures reached $34.9 billion, a 74.5% increase year-on-year, primarily focused on AI and infrastructure investments [14][15] Meta - Meta's Q3 2025 revenue was $51.24 billion, a 26.25% increase year-on-year, surpassing both the upper limit of guidance and market expectations [19] - The company faced a significant drop in net profit due to a one-time tax asset impairment, but adjusted net profit would have been $18.6 billion [19][21] - Capital expenditures rose to $19.37 billion, primarily for servers and data centers, exceeding market expectations [23][26] Google - Google achieved Q3 2025 revenue of $102.35 billion, a 15.95% year-on-year increase, with net profit rising 32.99% [33][36] - The Google Cloud segment reported revenue of $15.16 billion, growing 33.51% year-on-year, driven by strong demand for AI products [36][42] - Capital expenditures for Q3 were $23.95 billion, with a forecasted increase for the full year to $91-93 billion [42] Amazon - Amazon's Q3 2025 revenue reached $180.17 billion, a 13% year-on-year increase, with net profit up 38% [43][46] - AWS revenue was $33.01 billion, marking a 20% year-on-year growth, the highest quarterly growth rate in 2023 [46][52] - Capital expenditures were $34.2 billion, a 61% increase year-on-year, with expectations for continued growth in FY2026 [52][56] Industry Trends - The report highlights a trend of increasing capital expenditures across the tech industry, reflecting a competitive "arms race" in AI and cloud infrastructure [58][61] - The demand for AI infrastructure is driving significant revenue growth for cloud services, with all major players reporting double-digit growth in this segment [57][58] - Investors are advised to monitor financial performance indicators such as revenue growth, gross margins, and CapEx guidance changes, as these will impact long-term cash flow and profitability [3][62]