证券研究报告 | 2026年01月29日 哪些领域"反内卷"更值得期待？——2026 年牛市展望系列 3 策略专题研究 证券分析师：吴信坤 021-61761046 wuxinkun@guosen.com.cn S0980525120001 核心结论：①本次反内卷较 16 年供改背景更复杂，需求端内弱外强，供给 端受制造实力与地方非经济决策驱动。②26 年反内卷仍是经济工作重点，参 考 25 年及 16 年行情经验，反内卷行情或仍有可观上行空间。③政策干预角 度看，关注企业配合度高、地方、落地动力强的行业（如钢铁、油服工程、 水泥等）。④从行业自身周期看，关注供需两旺的景气行业（贵金属、化学 原料等），以及供需格局优化领域（养殖业、能源金属等）。 本轮反内卷背景更复杂，行情节奏相对波折。相较于供改，本轮反内卷再供 需背景上更复杂：需求端看，不同于供给侧结构性改革时期，棚改货币化等 强政策刺激快速拉动总需求，本次内需不足的特征更为突出，但外需支撑或 相对有韧性；供给端看，本次供给扩张与我国制造业实力提升有关，地方政 府"非经济"决策进一步加剧产能过剩。在此背景下，从行业结构看，本轮 呈"涉及面广、新兴行业多、民 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry, indicating expected performance above the market benchmark by over 10% [5][11]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant advancements in commercial aerospace, humanoid robots, and AI infrastructure, with a focus on the potential for cost reductions and market growth in these sectors [2][3][4]. - SpaceX aims to achieve full reusability of its Starship rockets this year, which could reduce the cost of space access by 99%, bringing it down to below $100 per pound [2][18]. - Tesla plans to launch its humanoid robot, Optimus, to the public by the end of 2027, with expectations for enhanced capabilities in performing complex tasks and household chores [3][18]. - The report emphasizes the long-term investment opportunities in commercial aerospace, humanoid robots, and AI infrastructure, suggesting a focus on key players in these sectors [2][3][4]. Summary by Sections Commercial Aerospace - The report expresses optimism about the commercial aerospace sector, particularly due to breakthroughs in rocket transportation technology that could lead to a surge in demand for launches and payloads [2]. - Key players in the SpaceX supply chain and domestic commercial rocket companies like Landspace and CASIC are highlighted for their potential growth [2]. Humanoid Robots - The humanoid robot sector is expected to see significant demand growth as Tesla's Optimus robot is set to be released, with capabilities to perform complex industrial tasks by the end of 2026 [3]. - The report suggests focusing on core suppliers and companies with strong market positions within the Tesla supply chain [3][9]. AI Infrastructure - The report maintains a positive outlook on AI infrastructure, particularly in gas turbine and liquid cooling sectors, emphasizing the importance of energy supply for AI data centers [4]. - Key components in the gas turbine supply chain and liquid cooling systems are identified as critical areas for investment [4][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry, indicating expected performance above the market benchmark by more than 10% [5][11]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant advancements in commercial aerospace, humanoid robots, and AI infrastructure, with a focus on the potential for cost reductions and market growth in these sectors [2][3][4]. - SpaceX aims to achieve full reusability of its Starship rockets this year, which could reduce the cost of space access by 99%, dropping to below $100 per pound [2][18]. - Tesla plans to launch its humanoid robot, Optimus, to the public by the end of 2027, with expectations for enhanced capabilities in industrial tasks and household chores [3][18]. Summary by Sections Commercial Aerospace - The report emphasizes the long-term investment opportunities in commercial aerospace, particularly in the rocket segment, with a focus on SpaceX and leading domestic companies like Blue Arrow Aerospace and CASIC [2]. - Key areas of interest include critical structural components and new applications of 3D printing, with specific companies highlighted such as Huashu High-Tech and Jiangshun Technology [2]. Humanoid Robots - The humanoid robot sector is viewed positively, with expectations for significant demand growth as capabilities improve. Companies in the supply chain, particularly those with strong positions, are recommended for investment [3][9]. - Specific companies to watch include Hengli Hydraulic and Weichuan Technology, focusing on core suppliers and components like joints and sensors [3][9]. AI Infrastructure - The report expresses optimism for AI infrastructure, particularly in gas turbines and liquid cooling systems, identifying key players in the energy supply chain [4]. - Companies such as Yingliu Technology and Hanjong Precision are noted for their roles in the gas turbine sector, while others like Ice Wheel Environment are highlighted for their contributions to liquid cooling [4][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry, indicating expected performance above the market benchmark by more than 10% [5][11]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant advancements in commercial aerospace, humanoid robots, and AI infrastructure, with a focus on the potential for cost reductions and market growth in these sectors [2][3][4]. - SpaceX aims to achieve full reusability of its Starship rockets this year, which could reduce the cost of space access by 99%, bringing it down to below $100 per pound [2][18]. - Tesla plans to launch its humanoid robot, Optimus, to the public by the end of 2027, with expectations for significant improvements in its capabilities over the next two years [3][18]. Summary by Sections Commercial Aerospace - The report emphasizes the long-term investment opportunities in commercial aerospace, particularly focusing on the rocket segment where capacity constraints exist. Key players include SpaceX and domestic companies like Blue Arrow Aerospace and CASIC [2]. - Specific areas of interest include critical structural components and new applications of 3D printing, with companies such as Huashu High-Tech and Jiangshun Technology highlighted [2]. Humanoid Robots - The humanoid robot sector is viewed positively, with a focus on companies that are core suppliers to Tesla or have strong market positions. Companies like Hengli Hydraulic and Wuzhou New Spring are recommended for their potential [3][9]. - The report suggests looking for growth in the value chain and identifying companies with high elasticity in their stock performance, such as Weiman Sealing and Longxi Co. [3][9]. AI Infrastructure - The report expresses optimism for AI infrastructure, particularly in gas turbine and liquid cooling sectors. Companies like Yingliu Co. and Wanze Co. are noted for their roles in the gas turbine supply chain [4]. - Emphasis is placed on the importance of energy supply for AI data centers, with recommendations for companies involved in cooling systems and integrated solutions [4][9]. Key Company Earnings Forecasts - The report provides earnings forecasts for several companies, all rated "Outperform," including: - Green's Harmony (688017.SH) with an EPS forecast of 0.66 in 2025 and a PE ratio of 328 [11][25]. - Huichuan Technology (300124.SZ) with an EPS forecast of 2.06 in 2025 and a PE ratio of 39 [11][25]. - Hengli Hydraulic (601100.SH) with an EPS forecast of 0.79 in 2025 and a PE ratio of 56 [11][25].

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月29日 | 晨会纪要 | | --- | | 数据日期:2026-01-28 | 上证综指 | 深证成指沪深 | 300 指数 | 中小板综指 | 创业板综指 | 科创 50 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘指数（点） | 4151.23 | 14342.89 | 4717.99 | 15581.35 | 4168.78 | 1554.80 | | 涨跌幅度（%） | 0.27 | 0.09 | 0.26 | 0.09 | -0.68 | -0.07 | | 成交金额（亿元） | 13655.26 | 15998.84 | 8294.14 | 5584.63 | 7441.75 | 1046.13 | $$\overline{{{\overline{{\mathbb{M}}}}}}\cong\pm\overline{{{\mathbb{M}}}}$$ 【常规内容】 宏观与策略 宏观深度:宏观经济深度报告-全球变局（2）："广场协议"再现？ 固定收益专题研究:固收+系列之十一-公募基金国债期货持仓全景：空头 主 ...

自制运输船快速推进，曹妃甸基地投产，完成丹麦、德国码头布局。2025 年 10 月，公司自制的首艘甲板运输船 KING ONE 号顺利吉水，载货能力、装 卸方式、运输效率等方面完美适配大型海工装备需求，公司自建的第三艘甲 板运输船举行铺底仪式。2025 年 9 月，公司曹妃甸基地建成投产，建成全球 首条超大型浮式基础智能产线。2025 年，公司先后完成丹麦、德国海上风电 母港码头布局，分别覆盖波罗的海、北海两大欧洲海风开发区域。 证券研究报告 | 2026年01月28日 大金重工（002487.SZ） 优于大市 全年业绩高增，打造海工全链条服务能力 全年业绩中值同比增长 137%，海外海风量利齐增。公司发布 2025 年度业绩 预告。2025 年公司预计实现归母净利润 10.50-12.00 亿元，中值 11.25 亿元， 同比+137.40%；扣非净利润 10.50-12.00 亿元，中值 11.25 亿元，同比 +159.85%。公司海外海风交付规模实现快速增长，更高的产品建造标准带来 更高的附加值。此外，公司通过提供装备建造、运输、本地化安装等系统化 服务提升业务附加值，推动公司盈利水平同比显著提升。 ...

- The report does not contain any quantitative models or factors for analysis[1][2][3]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Context - The recent intervention in the yen's depreciation is not a repeat of the Plaza Accord but rather a re-pricing of assets under Japan's fiscal narrative[1] - The yen's decline has been accompanied by a rare simultaneous weakening of Japanese government bonds, driven by ineffective interest rate differentials and fiscal expansion expectations[1][3] - The Japanese government's strong fiscal narrative has led to increased government bond issuance and short-term debt supply pressure, resulting in rising interest rates[1][6] Group 2: US-Japan Cooperation - A coordinated effort between the US and Japan to stabilize the yen is seen as a "Nash equilibrium" to avoid significant selling pressure on US Treasuries[2] - If the US does not intervene, Japan's strategy would likely involve selling US Treasuries to stabilize the yen, which would exert significant downward pressure on US bonds[2][30] - The US's intervention aims to manage expectations rather than implement a substantial revaluation of the currency, focusing on stabilizing the Japanese yen[20][34] Group 3: Future Asset Pricing - Asset prices are entering a re-pricing window, with the yen expected to remain weak but potentially stabilize in a range due to political constraints and market pressures[3][34] - The long-term support for the US dollar is influenced by geopolitical factors and resource security, while short-term movements are constrained by Federal Reserve policies[3][37] - Resource commodities are undergoing a systemic re-evaluation, with both nominal and real values expected to rise due to a weak dollar and geopolitical tensions[3][42]

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月28日 AI 赋能资产配置（三十六） 更高、更快、更强！AI 技术分析进化论 核心结论：① 基于大模型的技术分析存在"精度"、"逻辑严密性"、"上 下文处理"三大痛点，最佳的实践模式仍是"规则化提示词工程+大模型推 理"，脏活累活交给代码。 ② 用更加理性、更基于规则的方式进行提示词 工程，我们将最近 9 个完整笔、3 个线段和中枢信息，以及买卖点、是否背 驰，格式化形成 Markdown 表格作为 prompt 输入。③ 当前技术分析引擎实 现多级别自动识别笔、线段、中枢，支持多品种分析，对于前期超额严重跑 输的上证 50，大模型当前指向"站稳 3040 可分批建仓"；对于关注度较高 的卫星与半导体设备，前者整体趋势未坏但当前向上笔力度弱于前期，后者 处于日线级三买观察区长期看好。 大模型技术分析痛点：精度、逻辑严密性、上下文推理 1）精度：大模型看 K 线图类似于人类"扫一眼"，它能捕捉大致趋势（上涨、 下跌、震荡），但无法精确读取 High/Low 的具体数值；2）逻辑严密性： 目前的 LLM 在处理复杂的空间拓扑结构（如缠论中的笔、线段的递归定义） 时，很容易逻辑崩塌 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月28日 股指分红点位监控周报 各主力合约罕见持续升水 核心观点 金融工程周报 成分股分红进度 截至 2026 年 1 月 28 日： 上证 50 指数中，有 0 家公司处于预案阶段，1 家公司处于决案阶段，0 家公 司进入实施阶段，0 家公司已分红，3 家公司不分红； 沪深 300 指数中，有 0 家公司处于预案阶段，1 家公司处于决案阶段，0 家 公司进入实施阶段，0 家公司已分红，25 家公司不分红； 中证 500 指数中，有 0 家公司处于预案阶段，1 家公司处于决案阶段，0 家 公司进入实施阶段，0 家公司已分红，67 家公司不分红； 中证 1000 指数中，有 1 家公司处于预案阶段，0 家公司处于决案阶段，0 家公司进入实施阶段，0 家公司已分红，205 家公司不分红。 行业成分股股息率比较 我们对当前已披露分红预案的个股股息率进行了统计，其中，银行、煤炭和 钢铁行业的股息率排名前三。 已实现及剩余股息率 截至 2026 年 1 月 28 日： 上证 50 指数已实现股息率为 0.00%，剩余股息率 2.29%； 沪深 300 指数已实现股息率为 0.00%，剩余 ...