证券研究报告 | 2026年01月25日 2026年01月24日 港股市场速览 优于大市 中小盘与多数行业表现较优 股价表现：市场整体持平，权重股略有回撤 本周，恒生指数-0.4%，恒生综指-0.1%。风格方面，小盘（恒生小型股+1.6%） ＞中盘（恒生中型股+1.0%）＞大盘（恒生大型股-0.4%）。 主要概念指数分化。上涨的主要有恒生消费（+2.7%）；下跌的主要有恒生 生物科技（-2.8%）。 国信海外选股策略多数上涨。上涨的主要有 ROE 策略防御型（+3.4%）；下 跌的主要有红利贵族 50（-2.0%）。 22 个行业上涨，8 个行业下跌。上涨的主要有：建材（+6.3%）、钢铁（+5.3%）、 电力设备及新能源（+5.1%）、有色金属（+4.9%）、综合（+4.6%）；下跌 的主要有：医药（-2.6%）、计算机（-2.4%）、纺织服装（-2.0%）、非银 行金融（-1.6%）、传媒（-1.5%）。 估值水平：整体小幅下降，多数行业提升 本周，恒生指数估值（动态预期 12 个月正数市盈率，后同）-0.8%至 11.8x； 恒生综指估值-0.1%至 11.9x。 主要概念指数估值分化。上升幅度较大的是 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月24日 多资产周报 日债巨浪冲击全球市场 日债巨浪冲击全球市场。日本 40 年期国债收益率在 1 月 20 日突破 4%的 历史高位：（1）从原因上，日本财政货币政策变动是引发本轮日债抛 售的直接诱因。高市早苗政府计划推出远超预期的补充预算，几乎成为 "特拉斯"第二。同时，日本央行自 2024 年 3 月结束负利率以来，持 续推进缩表计划并减少国债购买。（2）从影响上看，日本长期以来是 全球最大的海外债主。当 40 年期日债利率回到 4%以上，叠加日元套息 交易的反转压力，产生了强烈的资金回流效应。随着日债利率大幅上行， 经汇率对冲后的美债吸引力对日本投资者而言显著下降。日本寿险公司 和养老金开始减少美债配置，甚至回流头寸以填补国内债市抛售带来的 流动性缺口，从而诱发美债跟随波动，并进而冲击全球金融市场稳定。 （3）往后看，益率的急剧上升促使日本加大口头干预,但日本央行增加 购买国债的可能性仍然很低。中期看，目前日元与利差背离，是因财政 担忧盖过了加息预期。一旦日本政府出面稳定赤字预期，日元可能瞬间 暴涨，引发比 2024 年 8 月更大规模的套息交易平仓，届时美债可能遭 遇 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月24日 金融工程专题研究 汇安沪深 300 指数增强基金投资价值分析 沪深 300 指数由沪深市场中规模大、流动性好的具有代表性的 300 只证 券组成，汇聚了 A 股市场的核心资产，其长期表现受益于中国经济的稳 健增长与产业结构的持续优化升级。 成分股市值较大，龙头效应显著。截至 2025 年 12 月 31 日，沪深 300 指数成分股的平均市值达 2254.88 亿元，显著高于中证 500、科创 50 指数、创业板指等。前十大权重股占比合计为 23.08%，成分股权重较 为分散，平均总市值为 9428 亿元，均为各领域具有竞争力的龙头企业。 盈利持续增长，成长能力较强。指数 2024 年 EPS 增速为 3.76%，预计 2025 年增速为 5.43%，2026 年增速 11.46%；2024 年归母净利润增速 为 2.78%，预计 2025 年增速为 9.67%，2026 年增速 9.40%。 沪深 300 为宽基配置首选，指数产业结构持续优化升级。截至 2025 年 12 月 31 日，沪深 300 指数基金合计规模高达近 1.2 万亿元，占全部宽 基指数基金的比重 ...

Economic Performance - In 2025, China's GDP grew by 5.0% year-on-year, achieving the target of around 5%[1] - The GDP growth rate in Q4 2025 fell to 4.5%, marking a new low in recent years[1] - Monthly GDP growth rates for October to December were approximately 4.5%, 4.3%, and 4.7% respectively, indicating signs of recovery in December[1] Structural Changes - A notable shift occurred in the economic structure: the secondary industry (industrial and construction sectors) saw a decline, while the tertiary industry (services) experienced growth[1] - The acceleration of the service sector is expected to create more jobs and increase income, providing sustainable support for domestic demand[1] Policy Outlook for 2026 - The newly announced fiscal and financial policies focus on stimulating private investment, with four out of six specific policies aimed at supporting private investment[2] - The emphasis on private investment over government-led infrastructure projects signals a shift towards "investing in people" rather than "investing in things"[2] Risks and Challenges - The report highlights potential risks from overseas market volatility, which could introduce uncertainties into the economic outlook[2] - Domestic consumption remains weak, with significant declines in key indicators such as movie ticket sales (down 26.9%) and automobile sales (down 32.0%) compared to the previous year[21] Trade and External Factors - Port cargo throughput increased by 6.23% year-on-year, influenced by the timing of the Spring Festival[24] - Geopolitical risks are rising, potentially affecting global trade dynamics and pricing systems[25]

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月24日 规模高增，收益中枢下降，公募合作增加 ——2025 年银行理财年报点评 |  | 行业研究·行业快评 | | 银行  | 投资评级：优于大市（维持）  | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 孔祥 | 021-60375452 | kongxiang@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980523060004 | | 证券分析师： | 陈俊良 | 021-60933163 | chenjunliang@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980519010001 | | 证券分析师： | 王剑 | 021-60875165 | wangjian@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980518070002 | 事项： 中国理财网发布《中国银行业理财市场半年报告（2025 年）》，我们分析需要注意的重点内容。这体现在： 一是规模显著增长，承接"存款搬家"与稳健理财需求。在利率市场化深化、存款利率持续下行的宏观背 景下，银行理财稳健和低波的特性使其成为居民储蓄的重要流向。2025 年理 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Hangzhou Bank is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Views - The company continues to demonstrate high growth, with a net profit increase of 12.1% year-on-year, reaching 19.03 billion yuan in 2025 [1][2] - Net interest income showed a strong growth of 12.8%, while non-interest income declined by 19.5%, primarily due to significant losses in trading accounts [1][2] - The bank's asset quality remains strong, with a non-performing loan ratio of 0.76% and a provision coverage ratio of 502% [2] Financial Performance Summary - In 2025, the total revenue was 38.799 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.1% [1] - The total assets reached 2.36 trillion yuan, with loans and deposits growing by 14.3% and 13.2% respectively [2] - The forecast for net profit in 2026 and 2027 has been adjusted to 21.3 billion yuan and 24.1 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 12.0% and 13.2% respectively [2][4] Financial Metrics - The diluted earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected at 3.03 yuan, with a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.90 [4][9] - The bank's return on equity (ROE) is expected to be 15.6% in 2025, with a return on assets (ROA) of 0.85% [9] - The dividend payout ratio is projected to increase, with a dividend per share (DPS) of 0.77 yuan in 2025 [9]

Group 1: Geopolitical Dynamics - The U.S. is increasingly using geopolitical tools to reshape international order and asset pricing, with a focus on Greenland as a strategic military and resource hub[1] - The U.S. has three main objectives regarding Greenland: national security, resource acquisition, and leveraging political cycles for strategic advantage[1] - The EU's ability to counter U.S. actions is limited due to its trade dependency, with approximately 34% of its trade surplus with the U.S. concentrated in pharmaceuticals[1] Group 2: Asset Pricing and Market Trends - The restructuring of global asset pricing is underway, with a shift towards "hard currency" and scarce resources as the new valuation anchors[2] - Investment trends indicate a migration towards precious metals and strategic resources, with a systematic increase in the asset attributes of non-renewable resources[2] - The Chinese equity market may experience a relative appreciation as global capital flows are restructured and the U.S. dollar's credit weakens[2] Group 3: Economic Indicators - Fixed asset investment has decreased by 3.80% year-on-year[4] - Retail sales have shown a modest increase of 0.90% year-on-year[4] - Exports have risen by 6.60% year-on-year, while M2 money supply growth stands at 8.50%[4]

Market Overview - Recent broad-based ETFs have seen significant redemptions, with a total net redemption exceeding 500 billion yuan since mid-January, including 325.9 billion yuan linked to the CSI 300 index ETF and 81.9 billion yuan linked to the CSI 1000 index ETF[1] - The average daily trading volume in the A-share market has decreased from 4 trillion yuan on January 14 to 2.8 trillion yuan, with a slight recovery to 3.1 trillion yuan on the last Friday[1] Signals of Market Correction - Historical signals indicating the end of spring rallies often include substantial policy tightening, external shocks, and deteriorating fundamentals[2] - Notable past instances include the May 2007 increase in stamp duty from 0.1% to 0.3%, which marked the end of that year's rally, and the March 2017 regulatory tightening on bank "entrusted" business[2] Current Policy Environment - The current policy aims to support market stability, with liquidity remaining relatively abundant despite recent tightening measures, such as raising the minimum margin requirement from 80% to 100%[3] - Industry and thematic ETFs continue to see positive subscriptions, with over 50 billion yuan in net subscriptions this week, indicating ongoing investor interest[3] Future Market Outlook - The spring rally is not yet concluded, with potential for further upward movement as the current market environment is still conducive to growth, despite short-term fluctuations[3] - The maximum index increase during historical spring rallies typically exceeds 20%, while the current rally has only achieved a maximum increase of 9.8% since December 17, indicating room for growth[3] Investment Strategy - The technology sector, particularly driven by AI applications, remains a key focus for investment, with recommendations to explore specific sub-sectors benefiting from AI implementation[3] - Value sectors, such as real estate and certain resource commodities, also present potential investment opportunities, alongside a short-term focus on service consumption[3]

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月24日 招商银行（600036.SH）2025 年业绩快报点评 优于大市 业绩底部明确，估值具备吸引力 营收增速和净利润增速都有所提升。2025 年全年实现营收 3375 亿元，同比 增长 0.01%，前三季度同比下降 0.5%。实现归母净利润 1502 亿元，同比增 长 1.2%，前三季度同比增长 0.5%。 营收微增，扭转了 2023-2024 年连续两年同比下降态势。公司 2023-2025 年 营收同比增速分别为-1.6%、-0.5%和 0.01%。营收增速微增核心来自于与净 利息收入增速转正，2023-2025 年净利息收入增速同比增速分别为-1.6%、 -1.6%和 2.0%。其中，2025 年四季度单季同比增长 2.9%，较三季度增速提升 0.8 个百分点，已连续 5 个季度实现正增长，核心是净息差降幅在逐步收窄， 预计 2026 该趋势将进一步延续。 非息收入同比降幅收窄，预计主要来自手续费及佣金净收入增速提升。2025 年公司非息收入同比下降 3.4%，较前三季度降幅收窄 0.8 个百分点。我们判 断由于其他非息收入在 2024 年 4 季度高增，因此今年四 ...

Core Conclusions - The report indicates that the recent market has entered a phase of consolidation due to significant redemptions in broad-based ETFs and a slowdown in leveraged capital inflows, leading to liquidity fluctuations [1][12] - Historical signals for the end of spring rallies often include substantial policy tightening, unexpected external shocks, and deteriorating fundamental trends [2][18] - Current policies are aimed at supporting market stability, suggesting that the spring rally is not over, with a balanced allocation strategy recommended, particularly emphasizing technology and AI applications, while also considering cyclical sectors like real estate and consumer services [3][26] Market Trends - Recent changes in liquidity have been noted, with a significant net redemption of over 500 billion yuan in broad-based ETFs since mid-January, including 325.9 billion yuan linked to the CSI 300 index ETF and 81.9 billion yuan linked to the CSI 1000 index ETF [1][17] - The average daily trading volume in the A-share market has decreased from 4 trillion yuan on January 14 to 2.8 trillion yuan, indicating a cooling market sentiment [12][13] Historical Context - The report reviews past instances where spring rallies ended, highlighting that substantial policy tightening is a core reason, with examples from 2007 and 2017 where policy changes led to market downturns [2][18] - External shocks, such as the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis and the 2021 Fed rate hikes, have also historically triggered the end of spring rallies [19][24] - Deteriorating fundamentals, as seen in 2012 and 2023, can lead to market corrections when economic data fails to meet expectations [19][21] Policy Environment - The current policy environment remains supportive, with liquidity still relatively abundant despite recent ETF redemptions, and the adjustment of margin requirements has not led to significant outflows of leveraged capital [3][25] - The report suggests that the ongoing spring rally has room for further development, with the potential for macroeconomic support from upcoming policy measures aimed at stimulating demand [26][27] Sector Focus - The technology sector, particularly driven by AI applications, is identified as a key focus area for investment, with recommendations to pay attention to specific sub-sectors where AI is being implemented [3][28] - Value sectors, including real estate and resource commodities, are also highlighted as having potential investment opportunities, alongside a short-term focus on service consumption [3][28]