Investment Rating - The report rates the innovative drug industry positively, indicating a significant growth potential and favorable market conditions for investment. Core Insights - The year 2025 is projected to be the starting point for at least three years of favorable market conditions for innovative drugs, driven by several key factors including high upfront payments for collaborations and improved domestic clinical environments [4]. - The Chinese innovative drug market is expected to experience rapid growth, with a projected market size of nearly 550 billion RMB in 2024 and an estimated CAGR of 24.1%, potentially exceeding 20 trillion RMB by 2030 [4][10]. - The research and development capabilities of Chinese companies have significantly improved, with a notable increase in the number of original FIC innovative drugs, positioning China as a global leader in certain therapeutic areas [4][27]. - The number and value of license-out transactions for Chinese innovative drugs have reached new highs, with 94 transactions in 2024 totaling 51.9 billion USD, reflecting a 26% year-on-year increase [4][46]. - The overall revenue of innovative drug companies is steadily increasing, with A-share companies projected to grow from 30.07 billion RMB in 2018 to 62.8 billion RMB in 2024, indicating a transition from high investment phases to profitability [4][18]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Outlook - The innovative drug market in China is set for explosive growth, with a total market size projected to reach 20 trillion RMB by 2030, representing a 264% increase from 2024 [10][4]. - The domestic innovative drug market is currently only 3% of the global market, indicating substantial growth potential [10]. 2. R&D Strength - Chinese companies have made significant advancements in R&D, with 41% of global innovative drug targets covered by domestic firms [27]. - The number of original FIC innovative drugs from Chinese companies surpassed that of Europe in 2021, ranking second globally [27]. 3. License-Out Transactions - The license-out transactions for Chinese innovative drugs have seen a remarkable increase, with 94 transactions in 2024 and a total transaction value of 51.9 billion USD [46][41]. - The trend of license-out transactions is expected to continue growing, with a projected total of 2.659 billion USD by 2030 [10]. 4. Revenue Growth - A-share innovative drug companies are expected to see their revenues grow significantly, with a projected increase to 62.8 billion RMB by 2024 [18]. - The overall profitability of innovative drug companies is improving, with several companies expected to turn profitable by 2025 and 2026 [4]. 5. Technological Advancements - The report highlights the emergence of advanced therapies such as ADCs and dual-target antibodies, suggesting a focus on high-tech innovations in the industry [4]. - The ASCO conference showcased a record number of presentations from Chinese companies, indicating the growing influence of Chinese innovations in global markets [4].

Group 1: Macro Strategy Insights - The historical review of global trade indicates that exchange rates and non-tariff barriers may become more critical tools in trade confrontations, potentially replacing tariffs [1][10] - Domestic foreign trade enterprises believe that due to fundamental conflicts, the Sino-US trade negotiations may experience significant ups and downs, necessitating ongoing risk management for exports to the US [1][10] - If tariffs fail to achieve their primary objectives, the US government may resort to more challenges in non-tariff barriers and exchange rates, drawing parallels from past trade competition phases [1][10] Group 2: Currency and Economic Indicators - The short-term outlook suggests that the RMB central parity may gradually decline to the range of 7.17-7.18, with expectations of dual-directional fluctuations in the USD/CNY exchange rate [2][12] - The ECI index indicates a slight recovery in supply and demand, but the manufacturing PMI remains in a contraction zone, reflecting weak overall economic momentum [14] - The significant drop in US imports in April suggests that the "import rush" effect from tariff policies may be waning, impacting trade dynamics [16][17] Group 3: Fixed Income and ABS Market - The current city investment ABS market is primarily dominated by enterprise ABS products, with a weighted average coupon rate around 3.25%, which is relatively low compared to other credit bonds [3][18] - The ABS market shows a significant mid-to-long-term characteristic, aligning with the cash flow characteristics of underlying assets like infrastructure projects [18][19] - The distribution of ABS products indicates a concentration in high-quality issuers, with a notable presence of AAA and AA+ rated products, reflecting a focus on credit quality and risk management [19] Group 4: Company-Specific Insights - China Ping An is expected to maintain a stable profit forecast, with projected net profits of 135.2 billion, 154.4 billion, and 177 billion RMB for 2025-2027, indicating a low valuation relative to its peers [6] - Nvidia's FY2026 Q1 report shows a revenue of 44.06 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 69.2%, driven by strong demand in the data center business, despite challenges from H20 restrictions [7][8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights the continuous improvement in gross profit margins and expresses optimism regarding the dual resonance of the general robotics and intelligent driving sectors [1] - The company achieved a revenue of 330 million yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 12.4% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 30.7% [7] - The report anticipates revenue growth for 2025-2027, projecting revenues of 2.63 billion, 4.20 billion, and 5.25 billion yuan respectively, with an upward adjustment in net profit forecasts for the same period [1][7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported a net loss of 100 million yuan, with a narrowing loss compared to the previous year [7] - The gross profit margin for Q1 2025 was 23.5%, an increase of 11.2 percentage points year-on-year [7] - The company’s ADAS product revenue was 229 million yuan, down 25.2% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 15.1% [7] Product Development - The company launched new products based on the digital EM platform, enhancing its product line and competitive edge [7] - The general robotics segment saw a revenue increase of 87.0% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 52.1% [7] - The report notes significant orders in the robotics sector, including a major contract for 1.2 million lawn mowing robots [7] Market Position and Strategy - The company is positioned to benefit from the growing penetration of laser radar in vehicles, with a focus on expanding its customer base [7] - The report emphasizes the importance of product integration, highlighting the launch of the Active Camera platform [7] - The company aims to leverage its comprehensive product offerings and customer relationships to capitalize on emerging opportunities in the robotics and intelligent driving markets [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company has successfully completed all primary and secondary endpoints in the Phase III clinical trial for ASC40, a treatment for moderate to severe acne, demonstrating excellent efficacy [7] - ASC40's treatment success rate was 33.2% compared to 14.6% in the placebo group, with a significant reduction in total lesions and inflammatory lesions [7] - The company is expected to submit for regulatory approval in 2025, with projected revenues starting in 2026 [7] Financial Projections - Total revenue is projected to be 1.28 million in 2024, with a significant increase to 40 million in 2026 and 100 million in 2027 [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to decline to (300.94) million in 2024 and further to (454.44) million in 2025, before slightly improving to (445.21) million in 2027 [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be (0.31) in 2024, (0.47) in 2025, and (0.46) in 2027 [1] Market Data - The closing price of the stock is 8.07 HKD, with a market capitalization of approximately 7,169.28 million HKD [5] - The company has a price-to-book ratio of 3.81 and a price-to-earnings ratio of (54.06) [5][1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights the continuous improvement in gross margin and expresses optimism regarding the dual resonance of general robotics and intelligent driving [1] - The company reported a revenue of 330 million yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 12.4% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 30.7% [7] - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 23.5%, an increase of 11.2 percentage points year-on-year and 1.3 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [7] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is expected to achieve total revenue of 2,631 million yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 59.53% [1] - The forecasted net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025 is -232.76 million yuan, improving from -481.83 million yuan in 2024 [1] - The report adjusts the net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to -2.3 billion, 1.4 billion, and 4.6 billion yuan respectively [7] Product and Market Development - The company’s ADAS products generated revenue of 229 million yuan in Q1 2025, down 25.2% year-on-year and 42.3% quarter-on-quarter [7] - The general robotics segment saw revenue growth of 87.0% year-on-year in Q1 2025, reaching 73 million yuan [7] - The company has secured significant orders in the robotics sector, including a 1.2 million unit order for lawn mowing robots [7] Financial Metrics - The closing price on June 4, 2025, corresponds to a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 5.7 for 2025 [1] - The company’s projected gross margin is expected to improve to 24.00% in 2025 [8] - The asset-liability ratio is forecasted to be 34.24% in 2025 [8]

Group 1 - The overall market trend is expected to show a fluctuating adjustment pattern in June, with limited short-term adjustment space but potentially prolonged volatility [4][60] - The A-share market is anticipated to experience a strong adjustment, while the Hong Kong stock market may perform better due to healthier chip structures, exhibiting wide fluctuations [4][60] - In early June, the dividend style is expected to outperform, while growth sectors may be relatively weak; however, from mid-June, growth styles may gain relative advantages [4][60] Group 2 - The US stock market is projected to continue its fluctuations, with risk trend models indicating high risk levels; factors such as international trade court rulings and Trump policies will influence market sentiment [4][61] - The gold market is expected to maintain a medium risk level, with no significant overvaluation or undervaluation, and is likely to strengthen gradually, forming a reverse hedging relationship with US stocks [4][61] - The bond market is anticipated to remain in a narrow fluctuation pattern, with the interest rate center potentially rising due to short-term supply pressure, but the overall downward trend remains unchanged [4][60] Group 3 - The fund allocation recommendation suggests a relatively balanced configuration, anticipating a fluctuating adjustment market, and advising to wait for the right timing [4][60] - The equity macro-micro monthly low-frequency timing model indicates a score of 0 for June, suggesting a strong adjustment pattern, with historical data showing high win rates at this score [31][30] - The model evaluates the market based on five dimensions: fundamentals, liquidity, international factors, valuation, and technical aspects, with a clear view of changes in each dimension [30][37]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Negative carry risk has emerged as a significant challenge in the fixed - income investment field due to the global low - interest - rate environment and monetary policy cycle shifts. Overseas experience shows that addressing negative carry is crucial for institutional profitability, risk resistance, and financial system stability. China's asset management institutions can learn from overseas strategies to manage negative carry risks [10][15]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Negative Carry: Impact in Progress - The cause of negative carry usually stems from asset - liability duration mismatch and interest - rate fluctuations. When the liability - side cost rises due to short - term interest - rate hikes or rigid payment pressure, and the asset - side long - term bond yields are locked or decline, institutions face the risk of return inversion [10]. - Overseas experience indicates that negative carry risks typically occur after a long - term low - interest - rate environment followed by a rapid interest - rate increase. For example, after the Fed's 2022 interest - rate hikes, the US banking industry faced "interest - rate increase + negative carry" pressure. In Japan, after the 2016 negative - interest - rate policy, a "interest - rate decrease + negative carry" situation emerged [10][11]. - China's banks and insurance institutions are also facing challenges of high liability - cost stickiness and low asset returns. They are forced to allocate low - yield bonds due to a shortage of high - quality assets, while liability - side costs adjust slowly [13]. 2. How Do Overseas Asset Management Institutions Break the Deadlock? 2.1 Asset - side: Increase Positive Returns - Japanese insurance institutions hedge negative carry pressure by extending asset duration and increasing ultra - long - term bond allocation, using term premiums to offset short - term return inversions [16]. - US commercial banks, with short - term deposits on the liability side, conduct band - trading by accurately predicting interest - rate cycles. They adjust their bond - asset repricing periods and use interest - rate swaps to hedge risks [21]. 2.2 Liability - side: Cost Control - European insurance institutions implement liability - duration matching strategies by issuing long - term policies or deposits to reduce liability - side interest - rate sensitivity. They lock in low - cost funds during interest - rate declines and adjust duration as interest rates change [22]. - Swiss insurance companies attract low - cost liabilities to form a liquidity buffer, using products like non - guaranteed products to reduce costs [24]. - Overseas asset management institutions use derivatives for duration matching and interest - rate risk hedging. For example, UK banks use structural hedging to improve returns and manage risks, and US insurance companies use interest - rate swaps to hedge interest - rate increase risks [30]. 3. What Strategies Can China Use to Address Negative Carry? - In China, banks face a contradiction between slow - growing deposit business and rigid costs, while asset - side fixed - income assets are highly sensitive to interest - rate fluctuations. The end of the negative carry environment depends on the interest - rate policy cycle [37]. - Strategies for China include dynamic duration adjustment, liability - side innovation and cost control, diversified asset allocation, and re - defining bond asset classifications. These strategies can help Chinese asset management institutions actively manage asset - liability linkages and reduce negative carry risks [38].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The current urban investment ABS market is dominated by enterprise ABS products, with a small amount of ABN products as a supplement. The weighted average coupon rate of urban investment ABS products is relatively low in the overall credit bond market, showing obvious interest rate stratification characteristics. The market presents a medium - and long - term trend, with AAA and AA+ rated products as the main ones. The underlying assets are mainly charge - based ABS and debt - based ABS. The participation of urban investment platforms in the eastern coastal areas is relatively high, and the issuance subjects are highly concentrated in industries [1][20][22]. - The ABS market's trading activity is in the process of recovery, with increased market demand, enhanced investor confidence, and improved market liquidity. There is a "duration inversion" phenomenon in the spread compression space of urban investment ABS, and the 2Y product may be the curve convex point. Different investment styles of investors can choose different types of urban investment ABS products according to their risk preferences, but attention should be paid to the potential liquidity risk caused by the small overall scale of urban investment ABS [3][48][50]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Overview of China's Asset - Backed Securities Market - The asset - securitization market in China has formed a relatively mature system, which can be classified by underlying asset types and issuance markets and regulatory agencies. With market development, the types of ABS are diversifying, and new products such as consumer finance ABS, intellectual property ABS, and green ABS are emerging. The scale of ABS is expected to continue to grow [11]. - In 2024, the total issuance of asset - backed securities increased year - on - year, mainly due to increased policy support, rising demand for盘活 existing assets, and restored market confidence. The issuers are mainly industrial entities, and the issuance scale of urban investment entities is relatively small [12][13]. 2. Current Situation and Structural Characteristics of the Urban Investment ABS Market 2.1. Structure of Outstanding Urban Investment ABS Bond Types and Coupon Rate Distribution - The urban investment ABS market is dominated by enterprise ABS, with a small amount of ABN products. As of May 11, 2025, the outstanding balance of urban investment platform - issued ABS was 339.64 billion yuan, accounting for about 2% of the total. The weighted average coupon rate of urban investment ABS products is about 3.25%, about 42BP lower than that of outstanding urban investment bonds. Low - coupon products are dominant in scale, while high - coupon products are more in quantity, reflecting the game between supply and demand in the market [20][22][23]. 2.2. Distribution of Remaining Maturity and Rating Structure of Outstanding Urban Investment ABS - The urban investment ABS market shows obvious medium - and long - term characteristics, with the remaining maturity concentrated in the medium - and long - term. As of May 11, 2025, the outstanding balance of products with a remaining maturity of more than 10 years was the largest. The products are mainly rated AAA and AA+, indicating that the overall credit quality of the issuing subjects is excellent, and the default risk is controllable. However, the actual underlying asset quality may deviate from the bond rating, and some AA+ marginal subjects may face rating adjustment pressure [27][28]. 2.3. Distribution of Underlying Asset Types of Outstanding Urban Investment ABS - Charge - based ABS and debt - based ABS dominate the market. As of May 11, 2025, their outstanding balances were 191.39 billion yuan and 134.96 billion yuan respectively. The underlying assets of charge - based ABS are mainly infrastructure charge rights and shed renovation/affordable housing bonds, while the underlying assets of debt - based ABS are mainly commercial real estate mortgages, supplemented by corporate accounts receivable and financial leasing claims. Real estate - based ABS has relatively low market acceptance [32][35][37]. 2.4. Distribution of Regions and Industries of Issuing Subjects of Outstanding Urban Investment ABS - Urban investment platforms in the eastern coastal areas have a relatively high degree of participation in the ABS market, with rich product types, strong market liquidity, and low default risk. In contrast, the ABS market in the central and western regions is relatively small in scale, and the issuance and trading rely on external credit enhancement measures or policy support. In terms of industries, the issuing subjects of urban investment ABS are highly concentrated, with those in the building decoration industry leading in outstanding balance, followed by those in the public utilities and real estate industries [40][43]. 3. Investment Value Analysis of Urban Investment ABS 3.1. Transaction Performance - Since the beginning of 2023 to mid - May 2025, the trading volume and turnover rate of the ABS market first declined and then increased, indicating that the market's trading activity is in the process of recovery, with increased market demand, enhanced investor confidence, and improved market liquidity [46][48]. 3.2. Valuation and Credit Spread Performance - The credit spread of outstanding urban investment ABS shows a trend of first rising and then falling with the lengthening of duration, with a "duration inversion" phenomenon. The spread of 2Y products is about 10 - 20BP higher than that of other maturities. Compared with urban investment bonds, the spreads of urban investment ABS of different maturities are higher, and the short - end products have more significant return space. The 2Y product may be the curve convex point. For different investment styles, investors can choose different types of urban investment ABS products according to their risk preferences, but they should be vigilant against potential liquidity risks [49][50][57].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Ping An Insurance (601318) is "Buy" (maintained) [2][7] Core Views - On June 4, Ping An announced the issuance of HKD 11.765 billion convertible bonds to support capital needs and strategic development in healthcare and elderly care [2] - The issuance of convertible bonds is expected to enhance the company's capital strength at a lower cost, optimizing the capital structure and supporting business development [7] - The report maintains previous profit forecasts, expecting net profit attributable to shareholders to be CNY 135.2 billion, CNY 154.4 billion, and CNY 177.0 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [7] Financial Forecasts - Total revenue (CNY million) is projected to be 913,789 in 2023, 1,028,925 in 2024, and expected to grow to 1,215,854 by 2027, with a CAGR of 6.9% from 2024 to 2027 [7][9] - Net profit attributable to shareholders (CNY million) is forecasted to decline by 22.8% in 2023, followed by a significant recovery of 47.8% in 2024, and steady growth of 6.8%, 14.2%, and 14.6% in the subsequent years [7][9] - The estimated PEV for 2025 is 0.65x, indicating that the current market valuation remains low [7][9] Market Data - The closing price of Ping An is CNY 53.85, with a market capitalization of CNY 980.62 billion [5] - The price-to-book ratio (P/B) is 1.04, and the price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) is projected to be 7.75 for 2024 [5][9] Capital Adequacy - As of Q1 2025, the core solvency ratio for Ping An Life is 163.7%, and the comprehensive solvency ratio is 227.9%, reflecting a significant increase from the beginning of the year [7]

证券研究报告·金融工程·金工定期报告 金工定期报告 20250604 "日与夜的殊途同归"新动量因子绩效月报 20250530 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 报告要点 2025 年 06 月 04 日 证券分析师 高子剑 执业证书：S0600518010001 021-60199793 gaozj@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 庞格致 执业证书：S0600524090003 panggz@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《"日与夜的殊途同归"新动量因子绩 效月报 20250430》 2025-05-06 《成交量对动量因子的修正：日与夜 之殊途同归》 2022-08-17 东吴证券研究所 1 / 6 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ "日与夜的殊途同归"新动量因子多空对冲绩效（全市场）：2014 年 2 月至 2025 年 5 月，"日与夜的殊途同归"新动量因子在全体 A 股（剔 除北交所股票）中，10 分组多空对冲的年化收益率为 18.37%，年化波 动率为 8.79%，信息比率为 2.09，月度胜率为 77.94%，月度最大回撤率 为 9.07%。 ◼ 5 月份"日与 ...