Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yum China (09987.HK) [1] Core Insights - Yum China's total system sales and revenue for 2025 increased by 4% year-on-year, with Q4 showing a stronger performance of 7% and 9% respectively [7] - The adjusted net profit for 2025 increased by 2% for the year and 24% for Q4, exceeding previous expectations due to automation, lean operations, and improved raw material costs [7] - The company plans to exceed 20,000 stores by 2026, with a capital expenditure of $600-700 million and a shareholder return of $1.5 billion [7] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue forecast for 2024 is $11,303 million, with a projected growth of 2.96% [1] - Net profit for 2025 is expected to be $929 million, reflecting a 1.98% increase [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected at $2.62, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 21.67 [1] - The company’s restaurant profit margins improved, with KFC and Pizza Hut showing significant growth in operating profit and restaurant profit margins [7] - The total number of stores reached 18,100 by the end of 2025, with a net addition of 1,706 stores during the year [7]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on companies such as SanDisk (SNDK.O), SK Hynix (000660.KS), Samsung Electronics (005930.KS), and Micron Technology (MU.O) due to their potential in the AI-driven storage market [4]. Core Insights - The industry is transitioning from traditional cycles to AI-driven technological premiums and high growth, with storage becoming a critical bottleneck for AI computing efficiency [5]. - AI is driving exponential growth in storage demand, with significant increases in requirements for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and solid-state drives (SSD) due to the scaling laws of model parameters [5]. - The valuation framework is being reshaped, with revenue growth and net profit margin expansion occurring simultaneously, indicating a period of high operational leverage in the storage sector [5]. Summary by Sections AI Value Chain - The AI value chain includes components such as computing chips (GPUs, CPUs, ASICs), storage (DRAM, SSD, HDD), networking, and energy solutions, highlighting the interconnectedness of these sectors [10][12]. - The storage segment is characterized by oligopolistic features, with high barriers to entry supporting high profitability [12]. Storage Demand and Hardware Architecture - Storage demand is categorized into cold, warm, and hot data, with different storage solutions (HDD, SSD, DRAM) tailored to each category's speed and capacity requirements [20]. - The architecture is structured in layers, with HBM for high-speed access, SSD for intermediate storage, and HDD for large capacity [29]. Large Language Model Storage Requirements - The report details the storage needs of large language models, emphasizing the importance of storage capacity and bandwidth in both training and inference phases [42][47]. - The growth in model parameters necessitates increased storage capacity, with significant implications for the demand for NAND and DRAM technologies [59]. Company-Specific Insights - Micron Technology (MU.O) is focusing on data centers and has made significant advancements in HBM3E technology, with a strong market demand for its products [64][70]. - SanDisk (SNDK.O) has undergone a restructuring, achieving notable revenue growth and improving profit margins through a focus on high-value enterprise SSDs [72][78]. - SK Hynix is benefiting from its early entry into the AI storage market, while Samsung is striving to catch up [79][81].

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive investment rating for Haitan Convertible Bonds, with an expected listing price range of 125.75 to 139.83 yuan, indicating a favorable outlook for investors [14][15]. Core Insights - Haitan Water Group is recognized as a leading enterprise in the environmental protection industry in China, with a focus on digital transformation and the establishment of a smart water management platform [17][32]. - The company has shown steady revenue growth since 2020, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15.60% projected from 2020 to 2024, and an expected revenue of 1.519 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting an 18.95% year-on-year increase [17][23]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to reach 305 million yuan in 2024, representing a 25.97% increase year-on-year, despite a slight decline in the overall net profit margin [17][20]. Summary by Sections 1. Convertible Bond Basic Information - Haitan Convertible Bonds (113700.SH) have a total issuance scale of 801 million yuan, with net proceeds allocated to various water supply and wastewater treatment projects [10][11]. - The bond has a maturity of 6 years, with a credit rating of AA/AA, and a face value of 100 yuan, featuring a tiered coupon rate from 0.10% to 2.00% over its lifespan [12][10]. 2. Investment Subscription Recommendations - The expected first-day trading price for Haitan Convertible Bonds is projected to be between 125.75 and 139.83 yuan, with an estimated conversion premium of around 30% [14][15]. - The bond's conversion price is set at 12.52 yuan per share, with the underlying stock closing at 12.78 yuan on February 4, 2026, leading to a conversion parity of 102.08 yuan [12][14]. 3. Underlying Stock Fundamental Analysis 3.1 Financial Data Analysis - Haitan Water Group has established a modern and diversified industrial system in water supply, wastewater treatment, and solid waste management, with a focus on operational efficiency and digitalization [17][32]. - The company has maintained a stable sales net profit margin, with figures ranging from 18.14% to 21.75% from 2020 to 2024, while the gross profit margin has shown slight fluctuations [20][27]. 3.2 Company Highlights - As one of the early entrants in the urban water supply and environmental management sector, Haitan Water Group has developed a competitive edge in project acquisition and operational management, contributing to its stable revenue growth and strong market position [32][17].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yum China (09987.HK) [1] Core Insights - Yum China reported a 4% year-over-year increase in total revenue for the full year 2025, with a 9% increase in Q4 revenue, exceeding previous expectations [7] - The company achieved a net profit growth of 2% for the full year and 24% for Q4, attributed to automation, lean operations, and improved raw material costs [7] - The total number of stores reached 18,100 by the end of 2025, with a net addition of 1,706 stores throughout the year [7] - Same-store sales showed significant improvement, with a 1% increase for the full year and a 3% increase in Q4 [7] - The outlook for 2026 is positive, with plans to exceed 20,000 stores and a capital expenditure of $600-700 million [7] - The company plans to return $1.5 billion to shareholders in 2025, with a dividend yield of nearly 8% [7] - Earnings forecasts for 2026-2028 have been adjusted upwards, with projected net profits of $1.04 billion, $1.14 billion, and $1.26 billion respectively [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 2024 to 2028 are $11.30 billion, $11.80 billion, $12.69 billion, $13.43 billion, and $14.26 billion respectively, with year-over-year growth rates ranging from 2.96% to 7.54% [1] - Net profit projections for the same period are $911 million, $929 million, $1.04 billion, $1.14 billion, and $1.26 billion, with growth rates from 1.98% to 12.24% [1] - The latest diluted EPS estimates are $2.57, $2.62, $2.94, $3.23, and $3.56 for the years 2024 to 2028 [1] - The current P/E ratios are projected to decrease from 22.10 in 2024 to 15.94 in 2028 [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Haitian Convertible Bond (113700.SH) was available for online subscription on February 5, 2026, with a total issuance scale of 801 million yuan. After deducting issuance fees, the net proceeds will be used for several projects and to supplement working capital [2][3]. - The current bond floor valuation is 113.5 yuan, with a YTM of 2.16%. The conversion parity is 102 yuan, and the parity premium rate is -2.03%. The bond floor provides good protection [2][12]. - The terms of the convertible bond are standard, and the total equity dilution rate is 12.17%, exerting a certain dilution pressure on the equity [2][13]. - It is estimated that the listing price of the Haitian Convertible Bond on the first trading day will range from 125.75 to 139.83 yuan, with a conversion premium rate of around 30% [2][15]. - Since 2020, the revenue of Haitian Water Group Co., Ltd. has been growing steadily, with a compound growth rate of 15.60% from 2020 - 2024. In 2024, the company achieved an operating revenue of 1.519 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 18.95%. Meanwhile, the net profit attributable to the parent company slightly decreased, with a compound growth rate of 14.92% from 2020 - 2024. In 2024, it reached 305 million yuan, a year - on - year increase of 25.97% [2][17]. - The company's sales net profit margin and gross profit margin slightly declined, while the sales expense ratio, financial expense ratio, and management expense ratio decreased [2][20]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Convertible Bond Basic Information - The issuance and subscription schedule of the Haitian Convertible Bond is from February 3 to February 9, 2026, including steps such as publishing announcements, online roadshows, and determining the allotment results [9]. - The convertible bond has a code of 113700.SH, a face value of 100 yuan, a term of 6 years, and a rating of AA/AA. The initial conversion price is 12.52 yuan per share, and the conversion period is from August 11, 2026, to February 4, 2032 [10]. - The proceeds from the issuance will be used for projects like the digital water supply and efficiency improvement project in Jianyang and the expansion project of Jiajiang Urban Domestic Sewage Treatment Plant, with a total of 801 million yuan [11]. - The bond - related indicators show a pure bond value of 113.5 yuan, a pure bond premium rate of -11.89%, and a pure bond YTM of 2.16%. The equity - related indicators show a conversion parity of 102.08 yuan and a parity premium rate of -2.03% [11][12]. 3.2 Investment Subscription Suggestion - By referring to comparable targets and the empirical model of the conversion premium rate on the first listing day, considering the good bond floor protection, rating, and scale of the Haitian Convertible Bond, it is expected that the conversion premium rate on the first listing day will be around 30%, and the corresponding listing price will range from 125.75 to 139.83 yuan [14][15]. - The original shareholders' priority allotment ratio is 100.00%, and the online winning rate is 0.0009% [16]. 3.3 Positive Stock Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Financial Data Analysis - The company has a diversified industrial system in the environmental protection industry. Since 2020, its revenue has grown steadily, and the net profit attributable to the parent company has also increased [16][17]. - The company's sales net profit margin and gross profit margin have fluctuated, and the sales expense ratio, financial expense ratio, and management expense ratio have decreased. The overall profitability remains at a high level but fluctuates periodically [20][27]. - The company's operating revenue mainly comes from the sewage treatment business, and the product structure changes annually. The revenue from the waste - to - energy business has been increasing year by year [23]. 3.3.2 Company Highlights - The company is an early private water service enterprise in the field of urban water supply and drainage and water environment comprehensive treatment. It has a mature "investment - construction - operation integration" model and certain competitive advantages in project acquisition, operation management, and cost control [32].

证券分析师：张良卫 执业证书编号：S0600516070001 联系电话：021-60197988 二零二六年二月六日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 1 摘要：从传统周期到AI驱动的技术溢价与高成长性 证券研究报告 格局落定，价值归真：从周期波动走向技术溢价 建议关注：闪迪（SNDK.O）、SK 海力士（000660.KS）、三星电子（005930.KS）、美光科技（MU.O）。 风险提示：下游AI资本开支（CAPEX）不及预期风险； 存储原厂产能扩张失控导致供需格局恶化风险；新技术研发进度或良率爬坡不及预期风 险。 2 ➢ 增长逻辑重构：AI 带来的不是反弹，而是指数级增长的新需求，存储不再仅仅跟随宏观经济进行简单的库存周期波动，而是成为了AI算力的 决定性瓶颈（存力决定算力的效率）。 ➢ 训练端（Scaling Laws 驱动）： 模型参数量呈线性增长（如GPT-3到GPT-4增幅超9倍），直接拉动HBM（容纳参数）和SSD（存Checkpoint） 的容量需求呈指数级爆发 。 ➢ 推理端（商业化落地驱动）： 随着RAG（检索增强生成）和超长上下文（Long Context）的应用，KV Cache（ ...

Macro Strategy - The report discusses the impact of liquidity shocks on commodity markets, highlighting that certain commodities, which are fundamentally supported by supply-demand improvements, have been "misjudged" during these shocks. As the risk environment stabilizes, these commodities may return to their fundamental pricing logic, presenting better entry opportunities compared to previous rotation phases [1][7]. - The report notes that silver futures have ended their downward trend, indicating that the liquidity shock is largely over. Silver has become a key indicator of market sentiment, with a strong upward trend observed since November 2025 [7]. Financial Products - The report reviews the performance of gold ETFs in January 2026, noting that macro data and policy expectations fluctuated throughout the month. The expectation of interest rate cuts provided temporary support for gold asset allocation, while rising policy uncertainty caused short-term disturbances [2][9]. - It highlights that as of January 30, 2026, the total market value of the Huaan Gold ETF reached 127.526 billion yuan, with a trading volume of 74.397 billion yuan on that day [2][10]. Fixed Income - The report analyzes the outflow of deposits in different scenarios, estimating that by the end of 2026, the total amount of term deposits could reach 197.60 trillion yuan under a high growth scenario, with an excess outflow of 21.5 trillion yuan compared to the baseline scenario [3][4][13]. - It emphasizes that the current market environment is leaning towards a "stock up, bond stable" dynamic, with the basic fundamentals and ample liquidity supporting the bond market [4][11]. Industry Recommendations - The report provides a forecast for Chery Automobile, predicting net profits of 18.4 billion yuan, 21.1 billion yuan, and 25.4 billion yuan for 2025-2027. It assigns a "buy" rating based on the company's strong momentum in new energy and stable export position [5][14]. - For Gaoce Co., it forecasts a net profit of -0.40 billion yuan for 2025, but maintains a positive outlook for 2026-2027 with expected profits of 1.27 billion yuan and 2.41 billion yuan, respectively, due to recovery in the photovoltaic industry and new business growth [6][17][18].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company is expected to see gradual improvement in Q4 earnings, benefiting from advancements in space photovoltaic and robotics industrialization [1] - The company has achieved a significant milestone by validating the cutting of 50μm ultra-thin silicon wafers, positioning itself to benefit from cutting-edge applications in the photovoltaic sector [8] - The company is entering the robotics market, leveraging its core technology in grinding equipment and tungsten wire materials, which may open up a new growth trajectory [8] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 6,184 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 73.19%. However, a decline is expected in 2024 and 2025, with revenues of 4,474 million yuan and 3,817 million yuan, respectively [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 1,461.12 million yuan in 2023, but is expected to decline to -44.23 million yuan in 2024 and -40.23 million yuan in 2025, before recovering to 127.28 million yuan in 2026 and 240.55 million yuan in 2027 [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 1.76 yuan in 2023, dropping to -0.05 yuan in 2024 and 2025, and recovering to 0.15 yuan in 2026 and 0.29 yuan in 2027 [1] Market Data Summary - The closing price of the stock is 14.20 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 11,797 million yuan [5] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is currently at 8.20, with projections of -270.86 in 2024 and -297.77 in 2025, before stabilizing at 94.12 in 2026 and 49.80 in 2027 [1][9] - The company has a net asset value per share of 4.70 yuan and a debt-to-asset ratio of 49.59% [6]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Chery Automobile (09973.HK) for the first time [1]. Core Viewpoints - Chery Automobile is transitioning towards globalization and intelligence, with a clear brand matrix consisting of five brands: Chery, Jetour, Exeed, iCAR, and Zhijie, covering various market segments and energy types [8][38]. - The company is experiencing significant revenue growth driven by its electric vehicle (EV) offerings and expanding export markets, with a projected total revenue of 329.4 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting an 8.64% year-on-year growth [1][17]. - Chery's net profit is expected to reach 21.08 billion yuan in 2026, with a strong growth trajectory, particularly in the EV segment [1][17]. Summary by Relevant Sections 1. Basic Information - Chery Automobile was established in 1997 and has evolved from a domestic manufacturer to a global technology-driven automotive enterprise, focusing on core technologies and quality improvement [13][14]. - The company has a clear ownership structure involving state capital, strategic investors, and management, ensuring operational independence [14]. 2. Existing Brand System - Chery's five brands cater to diverse consumer needs, with Chery focusing on mainstream markets, Jetour on family-oriented SUVs, Exeed on high-end users, iCAR on younger demographics, and Zhijie on smart electric vehicles [38][39]. 3. Export Strategy - Chery has a well-established export strategy, initially targeting developing markets and gradually expanding to key markets like Russia and Europe, with a focus on local assembly to adapt to market conditions [55][60]. 4. Technological Foundation - The company is enhancing its platform-based vehicle manufacturing capabilities and pursuing a dual strategy of self-research and collaboration with leading technology partners [8][34]. 5. Profit Forecast and Investment Advice - The report forecasts Chery's net profit to be 18.41 billion yuan in 2025, 21.08 billion yuan in 2026, and 25.38 billion yuan in 2027, suggesting a favorable investment outlook based on strong growth in the EV sector and stable export performance [1][17].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Chery Automobile (09973.HK) for the first time [1]. Core Insights - Chery Automobile is transitioning towards globalization and intelligence, with a focus on multiple brands to meet diverse market demands. The company has established a clear equity structure involving state-owned assets, strategic investors, and management, which enhances operational efficiency and strategic alignment [8][13]. - The financial outlook is positive, with significant revenue growth driven by the expansion of new energy vehicles and increasing overseas sales. The report forecasts a substantial increase in net profit from 11.95 billion yuan in 2023 to 25.38 billion yuan by 2027 [1][17]. - Chery's brand strategy includes five distinct brands: Chery, Jetour, Exeed, iCAR, and Zhijie, each targeting different market segments and customer needs [38][39]. Summary by Sections 1. Basic Information - Chery Automobile was founded in 1997 and has evolved from a local manufacturer to a global technology-driven automotive enterprise. The company has a clear equity structure that balances state ownership, strategic investments, and management control [13][14]. - The company has seen rapid revenue growth from 2022 to 2024, primarily due to the increasing contribution of new energy vehicles and sustained overseas revenue growth [17][18]. 2. Existing Brand System - Chery's main brand targets the mainstream market with a focus on high cost-performance and diverse powertrain options. Jetour emphasizes family travel and off-road capabilities, while Exeed targets high-end users. iCAR is aimed at younger consumers with a focus on personalization, and Zhijie leverages collaboration with Huawei for smart experiences [38][39]. 3. Export Strategy - Chery has a well-established export strategy that began in developing markets and is now expanding into key markets like Russia and Europe. The company has adapted its product offerings and distribution channels to suit local market conditions [55][60]. - The Tiggo series is central to Chery's product strategy, with a focus on multiple brands and energy types to cater to different regional markets [65]. 4. Technological Foundation - Chery is enhancing its platform-based manufacturing capabilities and pursuing a dual-track strategy of self-research and collaboration with leading technology partners. The company aims to consolidate its R&D efforts to improve efficiency and innovation [8][34]. 5. Profit Forecast and Investment Advice - The report projects Chery's net profit to reach 18.41 billion yuan in 2025, with a corresponding P/E ratio indicating a favorable valuation compared to peers. The strong momentum in new energy development and solid export positioning justify a higher valuation for the company [1][17].