- The report categorizes fund advisory products into various types based on equity weight and asset allocation distribution, including pure bond type (0%), fixed income+ type (0%-20%), mixed stock-bond type (20%-70%), stock type (70%-100%), and multi-asset allocation type, with further segmentation of stock-type advisory products into QDII type, industry theme type, and ordinary stock type based on strategy characteristics and income sources[11][17] - Performance statistics show that in November 2025, equity assets performed poorly overall, while pure bond and multi-asset allocation advisory products performed relatively better. Absolute return averages for November were: pure bond type (0.1%), fixed income+ type (-0.2%), mixed stock-bond type (-0.9%), stock type (-1.8%), and multi-asset allocation type (-0.2%). Median absolute returns since 2025 were: pure bond type (1.4%), fixed income+ type (4.2%), mixed stock-bond type (12.3%), stock type (23.0%), and multi-asset allocation type (12.7%)[12][13][16] - Among stock-type advisory products, active selection strategies had the highest relative returns in November 2025, while industry rotation strategies led in returns since 2025. November absolute returns were: active selection (-2.4%), index-driven (-2.6%), and industry rotation (-3.5%). Absolute returns since 2025 were: active selection (23.0%), index-driven (21.7%), and industry rotation (25.6%)[16][21][3] - Fund advisory products with high returns since 2025 include: multi-asset allocation type (e.g., "Global Daily Accumulation" with 28.6% return), stock type (e.g., "Anxin Aggressive 90" with 45.6% return), mixed stock-bond type (e.g., "Peach and Plum Silent" with 25.3% return), fixed income+ type (e.g., "Guotai Idle Money Steady Walk" with 13.3% return), and pure bond type (e.g., "Zhidao AI Stable Type" with 6.0% return)[23][24][26][27][28] - In November 2025, 131 fund advisory products underwent portfolio adjustments. Key allocation changes included increased exposure to A-shares, cash and currency, U.S. stocks, overseas bonds, and emerging markets, while reducing exposure to Hong Kong stocks, gold, other commodities, and bonds[29][33][34] - Sector allocation changes in A-shares for November 2025 included increased exposure to coal, power equipment, basic chemicals, and food and beverages, while reducing exposure to pharmaceuticals, electronics, and non-ferrous metals[36][37][38]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes the importance of balancing positions, indicators, and costs in treasury liability strategies, focusing on liquidity management and cost optimization [2][14][16] - Current treasury strategies are characterized by a focus on long-term funding, short-term deposits, cost control, and improving liquidity indicators, with banks experiencing reduced cost pressures and increased expected liquidity gaps [3][4][6] - The report identifies that the expected liquidity gap is exacerbated by factors such as the non-bankization of deposits and the concentration of high-interest deposits maturing, estimating that 17 trillion yuan of high-interest deposits will mature in the second half of 2025, and 26 trillion yuan in the first half of 2026 [3][4][19] Group 2 - The liquidity risk indicators are under pressure, with some joint-stock banks experiencing a rapid decline in their Net Stable Funding Ratio (NSFR), indicating a reliance on the liability side for liquidity adjustments [4][5][22] - The report suggests that the pricing of negotiable certificates of deposit (NCDs) may increasingly reflect internal management demands, with banks focusing on managing liquidity gaps and improving liquidity indicators through NCD issuance [5][6][20] - Investment recommendations include positioning in large state-owned banks, core holdings in leading comprehensive banks, and flexible allocations in regional banks, with specific banks identified as beneficiaries [6][14][19]

12 月债券收益率或上行 固定收益研究团队 ——固收专题 陈曦（分析师） 刘伟（分析师） liuwei1@kysec.cn chenxi2@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790521100002 12 月债券收益率的历史规律 2017 年以来，历史统计 10 年国债收益率在 12 月整体以下行为主，或是很多债 券投资者在 11 月布局长债的逻辑之一。 观察 2007-2016 年 12 月债券收益率下行年份，大致可以归纳为两种情况：（1） 当年债券牛市的延续，比如，2008 年、2011 年、2015 年；（2）对 9-11 月债券收 益率明显上行的修复，比如，2007 年、2011 年。 具体来看，2007 年 9-11 月收益率大幅上行，12 月小幅下行；2008 年债券收益率 低位震荡；2010 年 10-11 月收益率大幅上行，12 月小幅下行；2011 年收益率低 位震荡；2015 年全年债券牛市。 2025 年债券收益率走势的节奏 观察 2025 年至今的债券收益率走势，（1）2025 年 1-11 月债券收益率难言下行， 反而是陡峭化的收益率上行，与第一种情况不符，即当前债券并非牛市走势；（2 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the acquisition of 100% equity of Siyuanli by Meili Tianyuan for 1.25 billion RMB, which consolidates the top three brands in the Chinese beauty service industry, enhancing market share and competitive positioning [8][37] - The Double Eleven shopping festival saw a total e-commerce sales of 1.695 trillion RMB, a 14.2% increase from 2024, with beauty products generating 132.5 billion RMB in sales [9][41] - The report emphasizes the trend of "emotional consumption" driving growth in high-quality companies within the medical beauty and cosmetics sectors [10][66] Summary by Sections Medical Beauty - Meili Tianyuan's acquisition of Siyuanli aims to create a "triple strong alliance" in the high-end beauty market, with a projected market share increase in 20 major cities [8][37] - The report recommends focusing on upstream medical beauty product manufacturers and expanding chain medical beauty institutions, highlighting companies like Aimeike and Kedi-B as key investment targets [10][66] Cosmetics - The Double Eleven sales performance was strong, with beauty products leading the way, particularly domestic brands like Proya and Han Shu, which dominated sales across multiple platforms [9][41][48] - The report identifies a shift towards high-priced and multifunctional skincare products, with a significant increase in sales for premium beauty items during the festival [57][66] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests investing in companies that cater to emotional value and innovative safe ingredients, particularly domestic brands like Proya, Shangmei, and Marumi, which are expected to continue their growth trajectory [10][66] - It also highlights the importance of integrating AI technology into e-commerce platforms to enhance consumer experience and operational efficiency [62][66]

Group 1: Wind Power Industry - The domestic wind power demand is stable, driven by the "dual carbon" goals and the 2035 plan for 360 GW of installed capacity, with a projected addition of 86.99 GW in 2024 and a total of 272.1 GW from 2021 to 2024, significantly higher than the 145.5 GW added during the 13th Five-Year Plan period [7][8][9] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims for annual new installed capacity of no less than 120 GW, with offshore wind power expected to contribute at least 15 GW annually, indicating a robust growth trajectory for the wind power sector [7][8] - The industry is recovering from price wars, with a 9% increase in the average bid price for onshore wind projects in 2025 compared to 2024, suggesting improved profitability for wind turbine manufacturers [9] Group 2: Retail Industry - The retail sector is slowly recovering in 2025, with segments like high-end gold and fashion jewelry experiencing higher demand due to rising gold prices, while cosmetics and medical aesthetics face intense competition [13][15] - "Emotional consumption" is identified as a key driver of market dynamics, with a focus on brands that can leverage consumer insights and differentiate their products [13][15] - Investment strategies should prioritize high-quality segments with both short-term recovery potential and long-term growth prospects, emphasizing companies with competitive advantages and brand strength [13][15] Group 3: Coal Mining Industry - Yongtai Energy's Hai Zetan coal mine project is progressing ahead of schedule, with plans to repurchase shares worth 300-500 million yuan for cancellation, signaling confidence in long-term growth [20][21][22] - The Hai Zetan project has significant resource advantages, with reserves of 1.145 billion tons and a planned production capacity of 6 million tons per year, expected to reach 10 million tons annually upon completion [21][22] - The company maintains profit forecasts for 2025-2027, projecting net profits of 580 million, 1.05 billion, and 1.47 billion yuan, respectively, with a corresponding EPS of 0.03, 0.05, and 0.07 yuan [20][21] Group 4: Chemical Industry - Wankai New Materials is advancing its rPET and oxalic acid projects, which are expected to drive diversified growth, maintaining a "buy" rating [5][23] - The rPET project, in collaboration with Carbios, aims for an initial capacity of 50,000 tons, with a total investment of approximately 922 million yuan, showcasing strong partnership commitment [23][24] - The oxalic acid project, utilizing low-cost natural gas, aims to establish a production capacity of 100,000 tons, enhancing the company's competitive edge in the market [24]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Yongtai Energy is maintained at "Outperform" [1] Core Views - The construction progress of the Haizetang coal mine has exceeded expectations, and the company plans to repurchase shares for cancellation, signaling confidence in long-term development [1][2] - The projected net profit for the years 2025-2027 is estimated at 5.8 billion, 10.5 billion, and 14.7 billion yuan, with corresponding EPS of 0.03, 0.05, and 0.07 yuan, indicating a significant recovery in profitability [1][4] Summary by Sections Project Development - The Haizetang coal mine, a strategic project for the company, has a resource reserve of 1.145 billion tons and an area of approximately 200 square kilometers, with a certified production capacity of 6 million tons per year, expected to increase to 10 million tons per year upon full production [2] - Key construction milestones include the completion of all four shafts, significant progress in the main transport tunnel, and the operation of advanced mining equipment, laying a solid foundation for trial production in July 2026 [2] Financial Performance - The financial summary indicates a decline in revenue from 30.12 billion yuan in 2023 to an estimated 21.463 billion yuan in 2025, followed by a recovery to 27.552 billion yuan in 2027 [4] - The gross profit margin is projected to fluctuate, with a low of 18.1% in 2025 and a recovery to 23.9% by 2027 [4][9] Share Repurchase - The company plans to repurchase 0.55%-0.92% of its shares at a maximum price of 2.5 yuan per share, using 300-500 million yuan of its own and raised funds, with the aim of reducing registered capital [3] - This repurchase is expected to optimize the capital structure and enhance earnings per share, contributing to a return to intrinsic value for the stock [3]

基础化工/塑料 万凯新材（301216.SZ） rPET、草酸项目取得新进展，打造多元业绩增长点 2025 年 12 月 03 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/12/2 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 18.20 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 21.99/9.37 | | 总市值(亿元) | 105.59 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 99.79 | | 总股本(亿股) | 5.80 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 5.48 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 205.0 | 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -30% 0% 30% 60% 90% 120% 2024-12 2025-04 2025-08 万凯新材 沪深300 相关研究报告 《Q3 业绩同环比增长，反内卷及新材 料布局打开成长空间 —公司信息更 新报告》-2025.10.29 《公司盈利拐点确立，多元增长极打 开成长空间—公司信息更新报告》 -2025.8.28 《聚酯瓶片主业底部向上，多元增长 极共塑未来 —公司首次覆盖报告》 -2025.8.21 请务必参阅正文后面的信息披露和法律声明 1 / 4 ...

Group 1: Macro Economic Outlook - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes three key points: continuity, technological strength, and expanding domestic demand [5][6] - The GDP growth target for 2026 is projected at around 5%, with an average annual growth rate of 4.17% needed over the next decade to meet the 2035 goals [5][6] - The macroeconomic policy is expected to be more proactive, with potential interest rate cuts and an expansion of the broad deficit [9][10] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - On the supply side, there is a focus on enhancing service supply to stimulate consumption, with a service trade restrictiveness index of 0.225, higher than the OECD average of 0.19 [6] - The demand side anticipates limited recovery in fixed asset investment, with manufacturing investment supported by equipment updates, while real estate investment is expected to narrow its decline [7][8] - CPI is projected to rise by approximately 0.7% in 2026, while PPI could range from -0.7% to 0.5% depending on various scenarios [8] Group 3: Manufacturing and PMI Insights - The manufacturing PMI for November 2025 is reported at 49.2%, indicating a slight recovery but still in the contraction zone [14][15] - The service sector PMI has dropped to 49.5%, reflecting a contraction influenced by seasonal factors and consumer behavior [16] - High-tech manufacturing continues to expand, with a PMI of 50.1%, while the overall manufacturing sector remains under pressure [17] Group 4: Financial Market Perspectives - The bond market is expected to see a slight upward trend in yields due to revised economic expectations [19] - The Hong Kong stock market faced pressure in November 2025, with the Hang Seng Index declining by 0.2% and the Hang Seng Tech Index dropping by 5.2% [21][22] - The CCASS selected 20 portfolio achieved a historical high in excess returns, with a 0.13% return in November compared to a -0.18% return for the Hang Seng Index [27][28]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: Hong Kong CCASS Preferred 20 Portfolio **Model Construction Idea**: The model leverages CCASS data from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to track and replicate the monthly holdings of high-performing brokers. The goal is to identify brokers with superior performance and construct a portfolio based on their holdings[4][38][40] **Model Construction Process**: 1. At the end of each month, all brokers are ranked based on their standardized excess Sharpe ratio and monthly win rate. These two metrics are equally weighted to form a composite score 2. The top N brokers with the highest composite scores are selected to form a pool of high-performing brokers (N=10) 3. The holdings of these brokers are aggregated, and the top M stocks by weight are retained (M=20) 4. The selected stocks are equally weighted to construct the portfolio Formula: $ \text{Composite Score} = \text{Standardized Excess Sharpe Ratio} + \text{Monthly Win Rate} $ **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively identifies high-performing brokers and constructs a portfolio with consistent excess returns and risk-adjusted performance[40][41][42] Model Backtesting Results - **Hong Kong CCASS Preferred 20 Portfolio**: - November 2025 performance: Portfolio return 0.13%, Hang Seng Index return -0.18%, excess return 0.32%[42] - Full period (2020.1–2025.11): - Annualized excess return: 19.7% - Annualized volatility: 7.6% - Sharpe ratio: 2.59 - Maximum drawdown: -6.0% - Monthly win rate: 78.9%[42][43][45] - Annual performance breakdown: - 2020: Annualized excess return 37.4%, Sharpe ratio 3.85, maximum drawdown -5.4%, monthly win rate 91.7% - 2021: Annualized excess return 11.5%, Sharpe ratio 1.40, maximum drawdown -5.1%, monthly win rate 50.0% - 2022: Annualized excess return 12.2%, Sharpe ratio 1.48, maximum drawdown -4.5%, monthly win rate 75.0% - 2023: Annualized excess return 20.3%, Sharpe ratio 2.99, maximum drawdown -3.7%, monthly win rate 75.0% - 2024: Annualized excess return 22.5%, Sharpe ratio 3.38, maximum drawdown -3.7%, monthly win rate 91.7% - 2025: Annualized excess return 15.9%, Sharpe ratio 3.17, maximum drawdown -2.0%, monthly win rate 90.9%[43][44][45]

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a commentary on the November 2025 PMI data, titled "Manufacturing Sentiment Improves Slightly, Market Expectations Remain Optimistic" [1] - The analysts are Chen Xi and Wang Shuaizhong, with contact information and certificate numbers provided [2] Group 2: PMI Data Overview - In November 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 pct month-on-month and down 1.1 pct year-on-year; the non-manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, down 0.6 pct month-on-month; the composite PMI was 49.7%, down 0.3 pct month-on-month [2][3] Group 3: Manufacturing PMI Analysis - The manufacturing sentiment improved slightly due to export improvement, but it remained in the contraction range for eight consecutive months. New export orders rose 1.7 pct, on-hand orders rose 1.0 pct, and the production index rose 0.3 pct month-on-month [3] Group 4: Non-manufacturing PMI Analysis - The decline in the service PMI dragged the non-manufacturing PMI into the contraction range. In November, the service PMI was 49.5%, down 0.7 pct month-on-month and 0.6 pct year-on-year, the first time in 2025 to fall into the contraction range [4] - New export orders rose, but new orders fell, indicating insufficient domestic demand. Policy measures for new consumption scenarios and promoting domestic demand and consumption may be in the works [4] Group 5: Structural Highlights - High-tech manufacturing remained in expansion, with a PMI of 50.1%. Equipment manufacturing, consumer goods, and basic raw materials industries also had PMIs above the overall manufacturing level, despite some declines [5] - Price indices improved. The purchase price of major raw materials and the ex-factory price of manufacturing rose 1.1 pct and 0.7 pct respectively, and the input price and sales price of non-manufacturing rose 1.0 pct and 1.3 pct respectively [5] Group 6: Construction PMI - The construction PMI rose to 49.6%, up 0.5 pct month-on-month. The business activity expectation index was 57.9%, up 1.9 pct month-on-month, indicating improved confidence [6] Group 7: Market Expectations - Expectations for both manufacturing and non-manufacturing improved. The manufacturing production and operation activity expectation was 53.1%, up 0.3 pct, and the non-manufacturing business activity expectation was 56.2%, up 0.1 pct [6] Group 8: Bond Market View - Bond yields are expected to rise trendily as economic expectations are revised. For stock and bond allocation, the view is that economic growth may not decline significantly in H2 2025, structural issues like prices will improve, and the stock-bond allocation will continue to shift [7]