2025 年 1 月 7 日 招银国际环球市场 | 睿智投资 | 行业研究 软件 & IT 服务 海外公司梳理：拆解盈利增长前景及估值提升空间 2024 年美股头部科技平台整体表现良好，全年收益率平均值/中位数在 60%/44%，主要得益于：1）宏观经济维持韧性，美联储开启降息提升市场流 动性；2）AI 成为第二增长曲线，拉动 AI 芯片/AI 云/广告业务增速，行业龙头 依托于领先的产品能力/基建/客户基础/应用场景率先受益。展望 2025 年，我们 认为 AI 仍然是投资主线，但受益路径有望从 AI 芯片以及 AI 公有云进一步传导 到更多应用场景，包括 B 端和 C 端的应用软件，企业 SaaS 和数据云平台营收 有望相较 2024 年加速。头部科技平台中我们看好 Amazon（云需求持续增长及 零售业务运营效率持续优化驱动盈利稳步增长）、Alphabet（AI 搜索改善用户 体验并提升商业化水平，AI 云业务维持较快增长且利润率改善）、Meta（广告 业务持续受益于 AI 维持快速增长，依托于庞大用户基础较好实现 C 端 AI 应用 落地及变现）、Microsoft（AI 主题下重要的应用端核心投资标 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for the company, with a target price of RMB52.00, indicating a potential upside of 40.0% from the current price of RMB37.15 [4][19]. Core Insights - The company is undergoing a strategic transformation by selling its nine wholly-owned ODM subsidiaries to Luxshare Limited, which is expected to improve its valuation and focus on its high-margin semiconductor business, Nexperia [19]. - The ODM segment has been a financial burden, contributing approximately 79% of total revenue but incurring a significant net loss of RMB1.2 billion in 9M24 [19]. - The semiconductor segment has shown strong performance, generating RMB10.9 billion in sales with a gross profit margin of 37%, significantly outperforming the overall company margins [19]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB61.2 billion in FY23 to RMB80.2 billion in FY25, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 18.1% in FY24 and 10.9% in FY25 [8][13]. - The net profit is expected to recover from a loss of RMB911.4 million in FY24 to RMB2.6 billion in FY25, with a significant growth rate of 186.4% [8][19]. - The company's P/E ratio is forecasted to decrease from 50.7x in FY24 to 17.7x in FY25, indicating an attractive valuation compared to domestic peers [8][19]. Profitability Metrics - The gross profit margin is expected to improve from 10.4% in FY24 to 13.2% in FY25, while the operating profit margin is projected to rise from 2.3% to 5.2% in the same period [8][27]. - The return on equity (ROE) is anticipated to increase from 6.6% in FY24 to 8.9% in FY25, reflecting improved profitability [3][19]. Market Position - The company currently holds a market capitalization of RMB46.17 billion, with significant shareholding from major investors such as Wentianxia Tech Group and Wuxi Guolian Inte Cir Inv [9][19]. - The stock has shown a 33.0% increase over the past six months, indicating positive market sentiment [9].

Investment Rating - Maintain BUY rating for Innovent Biologics with a target price raised from HK$55.21 to HK$57.67, reflecting a potential upside of 62.4% from the current price of HK$35.50 [1][9]. Core Insights - Innovent Biologics has out-licensed global rights of DLL3 ADC (IBI3009) to Roche, receiving an upfront payment of US$80 million and potential milestone payments up to US$1.0 billion, along with tiered royalties on net sales [1]. - The DLL3 ADC is a promising therapy for pre-treated extensive-stage small cell lung cancer (ES-SCLC), with DLL3 being a neuroendocrine-specific antigen expressed in 85% of SCLC cases [1]. - Innovent has a rich pipeline of innovative drug candidates, including IBI115 (DLL3/CD3 bispecific antibody) and IBI363 (PD-1/IL-2), which have shown encouraging clinical results [1]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 6,206 million in FY23A to RMB 10,840 million in FY25E, representing a year-on-year growth of 32.4% and 31.9% respectively [8][19]. - Net profit is expected to improve from a loss of RMB 1,028 million in FY23A to a profit of RMB 281 million in FY25E [19]. - R&D expenses are forecasted to increase from RMB 2,228 million in FY23A to RMB 3,035 million in FY25E, indicating continued investment in innovative drug development [19]. Drug Development and Pipeline - DLL3 ADC represents a significant advancement in the treatment of SCLC, with various strategies targeting DLL3 being explored, including ADCs and bispecific antibodies [1]. - Innovent's next-gen immuno-oncology asset, IBI363, has shown promising results in multiple cancer types, indicating strong potential for future out-licensing opportunities [1]. - The company has multiple ADC assets in clinical stages targeting various antigens, enhancing its global market potential [1].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Hesai Group (HSAI US) with a "Buy" rating and a target price of $16.3 per ADS, based on a 4.8x 2025 expected price-to-sales ratio [2][3] Core Viewpoints - Hesai Group is a global leader in 3D LiDAR solutions, with a strong competitive advantage in the industry [5] - The company is expected to reach a profitability turning point in 2024, driven by increased shipments of existing LiDAR products, the launch of a cost-effective new AT series in 2025, and improved operational efficiency [2] - Hesai Group is projected to achieve Non-GAAP net profits of RMB 9 million in 2024 and RMB 141 million in 2025 [2] - The company has established mass production partnerships with 20 domestic and international automakers for 75 vehicle models as of 3Q24 [5] - Hesai Group holds a 37% market share in the global LiDAR market in 2023, ranking first, with leading positions in both passenger car/light commercial vehicle (26%) and autonomous taxi (74%) segments [12] Market and Industry Analysis - The global automotive LiDAR market is expected to reach $3.63 billion by 2029, with a CAGR of 38% from 2023 to 2029 [12] - The passenger car (PC) and light commercial vehicle (LCV)/autonomous taxi LiDAR markets are projected to reach $2.99 billion and $638 million, respectively, by 2029, with CAGRs of 39% and 31% from 2023 to 2029 [12] - Hesai Group is well-positioned to benefit from the strong growth in the LiDAR market, given its leading position in both global and Chinese LiDAR solution markets [12] Competitive Advantages - Hesai Group's competitive advantages include its leading technological capabilities, such as the self-developed ASIC chip, which enables continuous cost optimization [5] - The company's in-house manufacturing and highly automated production methods provide it with leading mass production capabilities [5] - Strong customer relationships drive continuous market penetration [5] Valuation and Target Price - The target valuation of RMB 15.9 billion (equivalent to $16.3 per ADS) is based on a 4.8x 2025 expected price-to-sales ratio, which is 10% higher than the industry average of 4.4x [3] - This valuation is supported by Hesai Group's industry-leading financial performance and a strong product delivery plan in 2025, driven by incremental contributions from leading automakers [3]

Investment Rating - Maintain BUY rating for Hansoh Pharma with a target price raised to HK$25.24 from HK$24.11, indicating a potential upside of 37.6% from the current price of HK$18.34 [3][20]. Core Insights - Hansoh Pharma has successfully out-licensed its oral GLP-1 drug candidate HS-10535 to MSD, receiving an upfront payment of US$112 million and potential milestone payments up to US$1.9 billion, along with future sales royalties [1]. - The company has a robust pipeline of GLP-1 assets, including Fulaimei, HS-20094, and HS-10501, with ongoing clinical trials that position it competitively in the global oral GLP-1 drug development race [1][18]. - The safety profile of oral GLP-1 drugs is a critical differentiating factor, with various candidates showing promising weight loss data and varying safety concerns [1]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 10,104 million in FY23A to RMB 12,301 million in FY24E, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 21.7% [2][23]. - Net profit is expected to increase significantly from RMB 3,277.5 million in FY23A to RMB 4,382.9 million in FY24E, marking a growth of 33.7% [2][23]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from RMB 0.55 in FY23A to RMB 0.74 in FY24E, with a P/E ratio decreasing from 31.1x to 23.3x [2][23]. Pipeline Development - Hansoh's HS-20094, a GLP-1/GIP dual agonist, has initiated a Phase 3 obesity study in China, with Phase 2 trial results expected next year [1]. - The company is also advancing HS-10501 through Phase 1 trials, further expanding its GLP-1 drug portfolio [1]. - The collaboration with MSD is anticipated to accelerate the development of HS-10535 and unlock its global potential [1].

Economic Growth - The US GDP growth rate is expected to slow from 2.7% in 2024 to 2.3% in 2025 and 2% in 2026, indicating a soft landing for the economy[1] - Trump's policies are projected to increase the average GDP growth rate by 0.2-0.3 percentage points from 2025 to 2027, but decrease it by 0.1-0.2 percentage points after 2027[1] - The unemployment rate is anticipated to rise slightly from 4.2% in 2024 to 4.3% in 2025 and 4.4% in 2026, while real wages continue to increase[1] Inflation and Monetary Policy - PCE inflation is expected to decline from 2.4% in 2024 to 2.2% in 2025, with core PCE inflation decreasing from 2.7% to 2.3% in the same period[1] - The Federal Reserve is likely to implement three rate cuts of 25 basis points each by the end of 2025, reducing the policy rate from 4.5%-4.75% to 3.75%-4.0%[1] - Trump's policies may introduce medium-term inflation uncertainty, with core PCE inflation projected to rise by 0.3-0.5 percentage points from 2025 to 2028[1] Consumer and Investment Trends - Household consumption growth is expected to slow from 2.6% in 2024 to 2.4% in 2025 and 2.2% in 2026, driven by a cooling labor market and weak consumer credit[1] - Corporate earnings growth is forecasted to increase from 9.6% in 2024 to 15% in 2025, while non-residential investment growth may decline from 3.7% to 3.5%[1] - The real estate market is projected to improve moderately, with home sales and inventory expected to grow by 5% and 10%, respectively, in 2025[1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the semiconductor industry, with a focus on four main investment themes: Artificial Intelligence, Semiconductor Supply Chain Autonomy, High Dividend Defensive Strategy, and M&A Opportunities [1][3][21]. Core Insights - The semiconductor industry is expected to benefit from the ongoing AI boom, with significant growth in AI-related business revenues driven by increased investment in computing infrastructure [1][3]. - The report highlights the importance of domestic semiconductor supply chain autonomy in China, driven by geopolitical risks and the need for supply chain security [8][9]. - High dividend yield companies, particularly in the telecommunications sector, are expected to attract conservative investors as long-term bond yields decline [17]. - M&A activity in the semiconductor sector is anticipated to increase, leading to high-quality consolidations that will enhance market competitiveness and profitability [21]. Summary by Sections Investment Theme 1: Artificial Intelligence - The report maintains a positive long-term growth outlook for the AI industry, with core beneficiaries expected to perform well due to substantial increases in computing infrastructure investments [1][3]. - Major cloud service providers are projected to increase capital expenditures significantly, with a forecasted growth of 42% in 2024 and an additional 18% in 2025, reaching $250 billion [1][3]. Investment Theme 2: Semiconductor Supply Chain Autonomy - The trend towards semiconductor supply chain autonomy in China is expected to enhance domestic market share, driven by geopolitical tensions and export restrictions from the U.S. government [8][9]. - The report notes that several Chinese semiconductor companies have been affected by U.S. export restrictions, but the overall impact on the industry is expected to be limited as domestic capabilities improve [9][10]. Investment Theme 3: High Dividend Defensive Strategy - Major Chinese telecom operators are highlighted as attractive investments due to their stable operations, strong free cash flow, and high dividend yields, with China Mobile at 6.86%, China Unicom at 6.14%, and China Telecom at 5.93% [17]. - The report suggests that as long-term bond yields are expected to decline, investors may shift their focus towards high dividend yield companies as a risk mitigation strategy [17]. Investment Theme 4: M&A Opportunities - The report indicates a growing trend in M&A activities within the semiconductor industry, with a 41.46% increase in disclosed M&A events compared to the previous year [21]. - M&A activities are expected to help companies expand their customer base, enhance product offerings, and improve competitive positioning [21].

Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests that the fuel cell heavy-duty truck industry may reach an inflection point between 2026 and 2027, driven by cost competitiveness and infrastructure development [1] Core Views - Fuel cell heavy-duty trucks are expected to achieve cost parity with diesel trucks by 2026, with a 75% reduction in fuel cell system costs over the next 5-10 years [1] - The key to achieving cost competitiveness lies in reducing hydrogen refueling costs and improving infrastructure, with government support playing a crucial role in the short term [1][2] - Fuel cell heavy-duty trucks are projected to have a 10% lower total cost of ownership compared to diesel trucks by 2026, assuming hydrogen costs drop to 25 RMB/kg [1][2] Cost Analysis - The total cost of ownership for fuel cell heavy-duty trucks is expected to decrease from 745,000 RMB in 2023 to 509,000 RMB by 2026, driven by reductions in hydrogen costs and improvements in fuel efficiency [6][25] - By 2026, fuel cell heavy-duty trucks are projected to have a 10% lower total cost of ownership compared to diesel trucks, with upfront cost premiums being offset within 3 years [24][25] Hydrogen Production and Transportation - Grey hydrogen (produced from coal or natural gas) currently dominates the market due to its lower cost (13 RMB/kg) compared to green hydrogen (30-40 RMB/kg) [27][32] - Transportation costs for hydrogen could be significantly reduced by adopting Type III long-tube trailers, which could cut costs by 50% compared to Type I trailers [42][43] - Pipeline transportation of hydrogen could further reduce costs to 2.3 RMB/kg, but requires significant government planning and investment [44][47] Fuel Cell System Cost Reduction - The fuel cell system cost is expected to decrease by 75% in the medium to long term, from 1,500 RMB/kW to 390 RMB/kW, driven by technological advancements and economies of scale [56][68] - Key components such as bipolar plates, membrane electrodes, and catalysts are projected to see cost reductions of 58-81% over the next decade [67][68] Market Potential - Fuel cell heavy-duty trucks accounted for only 0.3% of the Chinese market in 2023, but with long-haul transportation making up half of the heavy-duty truck demand, there is significant potential for exponential growth [3][72] - The report anticipates that fuel cell heavy-duty trucks could achieve cost parity with diesel trucks by 2026, with infrastructure development being a critical factor for long-term competitiveness [74][75]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the semiconductor industry, with a focus on four main investment themes: Artificial Intelligence, Semiconductor Supply Chain Autonomy, High Dividend Defensive Strategy, and M&A Opportunities [1][3]. Core Insights - The semiconductor industry is expected to benefit from the ongoing AI boom, with significant growth in related sectors driven by increased investment in computing infrastructure [1][3]. - The report highlights the importance of domestic semiconductor supply chain autonomy in China, driven by geopolitical risks and the need for supply chain security [8][9]. - High dividend yield companies, particularly in the telecommunications sector, are expected to attract conservative investors as long-term bond yields decline [17]. - M&A activities in the semiconductor sector are anticipated to increase, leading to high-quality consolidations that will enhance market competitiveness and profitability [21]. Summary by Sections Investment Theme 1: Artificial Intelligence - The report maintains a positive long-term growth outlook for the AI sector, with core beneficiaries expected to perform well due to substantial increases in computing infrastructure investments [1][3]. - Major cloud service providers are projected to increase capital expenditures significantly, with a forecasted growth of 42% in 2024 and an additional 18% in 2025, reaching $250 billion [1][3]. Investment Theme 2: Semiconductor Supply Chain Autonomy - The trend towards supply chain autonomy in China's semiconductor industry is expected to enhance domestic market share, driven by geopolitical tensions and export restrictions from the U.S. [8][9]. - The report notes that several Chinese semiconductor companies have been added to the U.S. entity list, which may impact their operations but also highlights the potential for domestic growth [9][10]. Investment Theme 3: High Dividend Defensive Strategy - Major Chinese telecom operators are highlighted as attractive investments due to their stable operations, strong free cash flow, and high dividend yields, with China Mobile at 6.86% and China Telecom at 5.93% [17]. - The report suggests that as long-term bond yields are expected to decline, investors may shift their focus towards high dividend yield companies as a risk mitigation strategy [17]. Investment Theme 4: M&A Opportunities - The report indicates a growing trend in M&A activities within the semiconductor sector, with a 41.46% increase in disclosed M&A events compared to the previous year [21]. - M&A activities are expected to help companies expand their customer base, enhance product offerings, and improve competitive positioning [21].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook for the technology sector, suggesting high growth potential driven by AI computing demand and innovation in edge AI applications [1][15]. Core Insights - The technology sector is expected to sustain high prosperity in 2025, with a focus on two main themes: expansion of AI computing demand and rapid innovation in edge AI applications across various devices [1][15]. - The global economy is anticipated to recover moderately, leading to a rebound in smartphone and PC demand, alongside continued growth in general and AI server markets [1][15]. Summary by Sections AI Servers - The AI server market is projected to see significant growth, with shipments expected to increase by 109% in 2025, reaching 2.07 million units [2][28]. - The introduction of new architectures like GB200 and ASIC AI servers will further drive demand for ODM and related components [2][28]. Smartphones - The global smartphone market is forecasted to grow by 3% in 2025, reaching 1.25 billion units, driven by AI applications enhancing user experience [3][15]. - Innovations in components such as optics, acoustics, and thermal management are expected to continue, improving profitability for domestic supply chains [3][15]. AR/VR - AI glasses are anticipated to become a key platform for AI applications, with a peak in product launches expected in 2025 [3][15]. - Companies deeply involved in the supply chain, such as Sunny Optical and AAC Technologies, are expected to benefit significantly from this trend [3][15]. Automotive Electronics - The rapid development of electric and intelligent vehicles is driving the growth of the automotive electronics market, with a penetration rate of 53% for new energy vehicles in China as of October [4][15]. - The demand for L3 and above autonomous vehicles is expected to rise, leading to growth in the market for onboard cameras and displays [4][15]. General Servers - The general server market is expected to grow by 8% in 2025, with a total shipment of 14.83 million units, driven by strong capital expenditure from cloud service providers [24][15]. - The demand for traditional enterprise servers is anticipated to remain weak due to macroeconomic factors and the ongoing shift from private to public cloud [24][15].