Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Naura Technology, indicating a potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months [19]. Core Insights - Naura Technology's new orders increased by approximately 25% year-over-year in 2024, driven by strong integrated circuit (IC) orders, with continued momentum into the first quarter of 2025 [1]. - The company is expanding its product portfolio through internal R&D and external acquisitions, including a planned acquisition of a 17.9% stake in Kingsemi, a photolithography coating equipment maker [1]. - Naura is positioned as a leading player in China's semiconductor equipment market, benefiting from the country's push for semiconductor localization amid tightening export restrictions [1][9]. - The target price remains unchanged at RMB 512, based on a price-to-earnings ratio of 36.8x for 2025 estimates, reflecting an 18.1% upside from the current price of RMB 433.66 [3][9]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 22,079 million in FY23A to RMB 38,909 million in FY25E, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 30.4% [2]. - Net profit is expected to increase from RMB 3,899.1 million in FY23A to RMB 7,426.9 million in FY25E, with a year-over-year growth of 32.1% [2]. - The gross margin is forecasted to improve from 41.1% in FY23A to 43.4% in FY25E, indicating enhanced operational efficiency [2]. Market Context - The semiconductor equipment capital expenditure in China is estimated to exceed US$50 billion in 2024, driven by strong demand amid geopolitical uncertainties [9]. - Naura anticipates a normalization of demand for overseas products, which may create more opportunities for local vendors [9]. - The company expects investment in domestic mature nodes to stabilize over the next 2-3 years, while advanced logic and memory segments are projected to drive future growth [9].

Industry Insights - The sales data for April in the Chinese construction machinery industry shows mixed results, with non-earthmoving machinery sales fluctuating. Forklift sales remain resilient, while tower crane domestic sales have decreased by 61% year-on-year, and exports increased by 49%. Aerial work platform sales have dropped by 31% year-on-year, indicating ongoing weakness. The report maintains a positive outlook on earthmoving machinery due to its early recovery in project and replacement cycles [2][4]. - The report continues to favor Sany Heavy Industry (600031 CH, Buy) and Hengli Hydraulic (601100 CH, Buy) due to their high revenue share from excavators. It also supports Zoomlion (1157 HK / 000157 CH, Buy) for its strategy of rapid expansion in emerging markets through a broad product line. Conversely, a cautious view is maintained on Zhejiang Dingli (603338 CH, Hold) due to uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariff policies [2][4]. Company Analysis - Trip.com Group (TCOM US, Buy, Target Price: $70.00) reported Q1 2025 revenue of RMB 13.9 billion, a 16% year-on-year increase, aligning with expectations. Non-GAAP operating profit reached RMB 4 billion, exceeding forecasts by 7%, driven by optimized sales and marketing expenses. The overall travel demand remains resilient, and the company's international expansion is progressing as planned, expected to yield long-term value [5]. - Bilibili (BILI US, Buy, Target Price: $26.50) announced Q1 2025 revenue growth of 24% to RMB 7 billion, meeting market expectations. Adjusted net profit reached RMB 362 million, a significant improvement from a net loss of RMB 456 million in the previous year, driven by an 8% increase in gross margin and a 13% reduction in R&D expenses. The company is projected to maintain a 20% year-on-year revenue growth in Q2 2025, with further profit margin improvements anticipated [5]. - Three-Sixty Biopharmaceuticals (1530 HK, Buy, Target Price: HKD 28.32) has licensed its PD-1/VEGF candidate to Pfizer, receiving an upfront payment of $1.25 billion and potential milestone payments of up to $4.8 billion, along with a double-digit sales share. This deal exceeds market expectations and is expected to significantly enhance the company's profits in 2025 [6][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Trip.com Group (TCOM), with a target price of US$70.00, indicating a potential upside of 10.4% from the current price of US$63.38 [2][16]. Core Insights - Trip.com Group reported a total revenue of RMB13.9 billion for 1Q25, reflecting a 16% year-over-year growth, which aligns with forecasts and consensus estimates. The non-GAAP operating income was RMB4.0 billion, exceeding expectations by 7% due to optimized sales and marketing expenditures [1]. - The company is on track with its overseas expansion strategy, which is expected to enhance long-term value despite potential short-term earnings pressure from increased investments [1]. - The report anticipates resilient revenue growth in 2Q25, projecting a total revenue of RMB14.6 billion, representing a 15% year-over-year increase [7]. Financial Performance - For FY25E, total revenue is projected at RMB61.5 billion, with a year-over-year growth of 15.2%. The adjusted net profit is expected to be RMB17.8 billion, reflecting a slight decline of 1.3% compared to FY24A [8][10]. - The non-GAAP operating profit margin for 1Q25 was reported at 29.2%, which is 1.7 percentage points better than consensus estimates, driven by effective cost management [7][9]. - The company’s gross profit margin for 1Q25 was 80.3%, slightly below consensus expectations, indicating a need for continued focus on cost efficiency as revenue contributions from Trip.com increase [7][9]. Market Position and Growth - Trip.com’s domestic business showed strong booking volume growth, with hotel bookings increasing by approximately 10-15% year-over-year in 2Q25, while outbound bookings surpassed 120% of 2019 levels in 1Q25 [7]. - The international segment accounted for 13% of total revenue in 1Q25, with over 50% year-over-year growth, suggesting a robust recovery and expansion in overseas markets [7]. - The company is expected to maintain its investment strategy to support international growth, particularly in emerging markets like Japan, Malaysia, and Thailand, while also investing in new markets such as the Middle East and Europe [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Bilibili, indicating a potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months [21]. Core Insights - Bilibili's total revenue for 1Q25 increased by 24% year-over-year to RMB7.0 billion, aligning with Bloomberg consensus estimates. The adjusted net income reached RMB362 million, a significant improvement from a net loss of RMB456 million in 1Q24, driven by gross profit margin expansion and controlled R&D expenses [1][2]. - For 2Q25, the expectation is for continued strong performance with a projected 20% year-over-year revenue growth, supported by advertising and mobile games [1]. - The target price has been fine-tuned to US$26.5, reflecting a 46% upside from the current price of US$18.15, based on a 25x FY26E non-GAAP PE [3][11]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Growth**: - FY23A: RMB22,528 million - FY24A: RMB26,832 million (19.1% YoY growth) - FY25E: RMB30,584 million (14.0% YoY growth) [2][18]. - **Gross Margin**: - FY23A: 24.2% - FY24A: 32.7% - FY25E: 36.9% [2][18]. - **Adjusted Net Profit**: - FY23A: (RMB3,533.8 million) - FY24A: (RMB22.1 million) - FY25E: RMB2,243.8 million [2][18]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - FY25E: 534.14 RMB cents, compared to consensus EPS of 4.53 RMB [2][18]. Business Segment Performance - **Value-Added Services (VAS)**: Revenue grew by 11% YoY to RMB2.81 billion, driven by live streaming and innovative monetization methods [7]. - **Advertising Revenue**: Increased by 20% YoY to RMB2.00 billion, with performance ads growing over 30% YoY [7]. - **Mobile Games Revenue**: Strong growth of 76% YoY to RMB1.73 billion, attributed to the success of the game "SanMou" [7]. Margin Expansion - The overall gross profit margin improved by 8 percentage points YoY to 36.3% in 1Q25, with adjusted operating profit margin rising by 14 percentage points YoY to 4.9% [7][8]. Valuation and Target Price - The SOTP-derived target price of US$26.5 reflects the valuation of different business segments: - Advertising: US$12.7 (48% of total valuation) - VAS: US$6.4 (24%) - Mobile Games: US$7.2 (27%) [11][12][13]. Market Data - Market capitalization stands at approximately US$7.62 billion, with a 52-week high of US$29.66 and a low of US$12.96 [3]. - The average trading volume over the past three months is US$65.4 million [3]. User Engagement Metrics - Monthly Active Users (MAUs) grew by 8% YoY to 368 million, with average daily time spent on the platform increasing by 3% YoY to 108 minutes [7]. Future Outlook - Management is optimistic about sustaining growth in mobile games, particularly with upcoming content releases for "SanMou" [7]. - For 2Q25, total revenue is expected to reach RMB7.36 billion, with mobile games, advertising, and VAS revenue projected to grow by 63%, 18%, and 11% YoY, respectively [7].

宏观经济 中国经济-数据仍然稳健降低政策强刺激概率 2025 年 5 月 20 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 宏观及公司点评 全球市场观察 在关税冲击下，4 月中国经济活动总体放缓，但依然比预期强劲。社会零售 额增速小幅降低但仍然稳健，"以旧换新"政策支撑耐用品零售保持较快增 长。工业增加值和固定资产投资增速均略有回落，但仍高于 2024 年水平。 贸易战缓和提振市场情绪，但也降低政策强刺激概率。我们将第二季度中国 GDP 增长预测从 4.5%上调至 4.8%，下半年和全年增速分别为 4.7%和 4.9%。 由于房地产市场走弱、抢出口透支外需和以旧换新政策刺激效应边际递减， 中国经济在第三季度可能面临进一步放缓压力。政策宽松时点可能推迟至第 四季度，财政刺激、提振消费和去产能作为中国经济再平衡的重点政策可能 成为中美谈判中中方的重要出价。（链接） 公司点评 零跑汽车（9863 HK，买入，目标价：72 港元）- 1Q25 超预期；后续展望更 趋乐观 1Q25 毛利率超预期：零跑一季度收入较我们预期高出 8%，在一季度终端折 扣扩大的背景下公司仍然实现了平均售价的环比提升。一季 ...

Group 1: Stock Recommendations - Recommended stocks include Geely Automobile, Xpeng Motors, Zoomlion, Sany Heavy Industry, Atour Group, Luckin Coffee, and Proya, all rated as "Buy" with target price increases ranging from 12% to 37%[5] - The average market capitalization of the recommended stocks is approximately $25 billion for Geely Automobile and $19.7 billion for Xpeng Motors[5] - The average daily trading volume for these stocks varies, with Geely Automobile at $200.2 million and Xpeng Motors at $248.2 million[5] Group 2: Financial Metrics - Price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for FY24A shows Geely Automobile at 10.90, while Xpeng Motors is not available (N/A)[5] - Return on equity (ROE) for FY24A is highest for Atour Group at 47.5%, while Xpeng Motors is N/A[5] - Dividend yield for FY24A is 1.7% for Geely Automobile and 5.4% for Xpeng Motors[5] Group 3: Performance Review - The basket of 22 stocks listed in the previous report had an average return of 6.0%, compared to the MSCI China Index return of 8.1%[9] - Out of the 22 stocks, 6 outperformed the benchmark index[9]

Investment Rating - Maintain BUY rating for Leapmotor, with a target price raised from HK$50.00 to HK$72.00, indicating a potential upside of 15.8% from the current price of HK$62.20 [1][3]. Core Insights - Leapmotor's 1Q25 net loss of RMB130 million was better than expected, attributed to higher average selling price (ASP) and gross profit margin (GPM), along with contributions from strategic cooperation [1][9]. - The company is expected to achieve breakeven at the net level in FY25E, followed by a significant profit increase to RMB1.2 billion in FY26E [1][9]. - Sales volume forecast for FY25E has been raised by 15% to 0.55 million units, reflecting stronger-than-expected sales performance [1][9]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for FY25E are set at RMB58,993 million, with a year-on-year growth of 83.4% [2][11]. - Gross margin is expected to improve to 12.1% in FY25E, up from 11.2% previously estimated [11][12]. - Net profit is projected to turn positive at RMB118 million in FY25E, with further growth anticipated in FY26E [2][11]. Share Performance - Leapmotor's stock has shown significant performance, with a 1-month increase of 38.4% and a 6-month increase of 106.3% [5]. - The market capitalization stands at HK$83,159.3 million, with an average turnover of HK$695.7 million over the past three months [3][5]. Shareholding Structure - Major shareholders include Mr. Jiangming Zhu and his concert parties holding 25.0%, and Stellantis N.V. with a 21.3% stake [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Leapmotor, indicating a potential return exceeding 15% over the next 12 months [4][18]. Core Insights - Leapmotor's Q1 2025 net loss of RMB 130 million exceeded previous expectations, driven by an increase in average selling price (ASP) and gross profit margin (GPM), along with unexpected contributions from strategic partnerships [1][2]. - The sales volume forecast for FY25 has been raised by 15% to 550,000 units, reflecting strong sales performance and order volume from April to May [3][4]. - The GPM for Q1 2025 improved by 1.6 percentage points to 14.9%, attributed to strategic cooperation with FAW and effective cost reduction efforts [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for FY25 have been increased to RMB 58.993 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 83.4% [5][13]. - The net profit forecast for FY25 has been adjusted from a loss of RMB 98 million to a profit of RMB 118 million, with significant profit growth expected in FY26 [4][13]. - The GPM for FY25 is now projected at 12.1%, up from 11.2%, reflecting enhanced cost management capabilities [3][13]. Valuation and Target Price - The target price has been raised from HKD 50.00 to HKD 72.00, based on a price-to-sales ratio of 1.5 times for FY25 [4][6]. - The report highlights a significant improvement in market sentiment and profit outlook for Leapmotor, supporting the revised target price [4][6]. Shareholder Structure - Major shareholders include Mr. Jiangming Zhu with 25.0% and Stellantis N.V. with 21.3% [7]. Stock Performance - Leapmotor's stock has shown strong performance, with a 1-month absolute return of 38.4% and a 6-month return of 106.3% [8].

Macro Commentary - The US economy shows signs of slowing down, with significant declines in retail and manufacturing output due to tariff impacts, particularly affecting durable goods like automobiles and electronics [2] - Despite the slowdown, unemployment claims remain stable, indicating that the service sector is less affected, and employment in this sector remains robust [2] - Inflation is expected to rebound temporarily from May to August, with the Federal Reserve likely to maintain interest rates until September, when a potential rate cut may occur [2] Industry Commentary - The Chinese pharmaceutical sector is experiencing a strong trend in innovative drug exports, with several significant business development transactions occurring despite recent tariff tensions [5][6] - The MSCI China Healthcare Index has risen by 14.9% since early 2025, although it has underperformed compared to the broader MSCI China Index [5] - The US innovative drug prices are unlikely to decrease in the short term due to recent executive orders, but long-term pressures on healthcare spending are anticipated [7] Company Initiation - The report covers Angelalign Technology (6699 HK), a leading provider of invisible orthodontic solutions in China, which has maintained a market share of 42% in the domestic market [9][10] - The company is expected to achieve a revenue compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 23.8% from 2019 to 2024, with a projected CAGR of 18.0% from 2024 to 2027 [9] - Angelalign is expanding internationally, with a goal to cover over 50 countries and achieve significant revenue growth from overseas markets, which is expected to account for 30% of total revenue by 2024 [11][12]

Economic Overview - In April, U.S. retail and manufacturing output significantly slowed, indicating the impact of tariffs on consumer confidence and demand[1] - Retail sales for durable goods, such as automobiles and furniture, showed a marked decline, while non-durable goods retail also weakened[1] - The unemployment rate remains low, with initial jobless claims at 229,000, consistent with market expectations, and continuing claims slightly rising to 1.881 million[2] Inflation and Federal Reserve Outlook - Inflation is expected to rebound in the short term from May to August, but the unemployment rate is projected to remain low, leading the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged[2] - Inflation may peak around September and start to decline thereafter, with potential rate cuts from the Federal Reserve in September and possibly again in November or December[1][2] Retail Performance - April retail and food service sales showed a seasonally adjusted month-on-month growth of 0.1%, slightly above the market expectation of 0%[5] - Durable goods consumption, particularly in automotive, fell from a growth of 5.5% in March to -0.1% in April, while non-durable goods like sports and clothing saw declines of -2.5% and -0.4% respectively[5] Manufacturing Output - Industrial production remained flat in April, slightly below the expected 0.1% increase, with manufacturing output declining by 0.4%[5] - Key sectors such as electrical lighting and medical equipment saw declines of 3.4% and 2.2%, while aerospace and semiconductor production grew by 1% and 2% respectively[5]