Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended," indicating a positive outlook for the industry fundamentals and an expectation that the industry index will outperform the benchmark index [32]. Core Insights - The camera industry chain is expected to continue its upward trend in prosperity, driven by significant growth in the performance forecasts of key companies such as Yutong Optical, Qiu Tai Technology, Crystal Optoelectronics, and Hongsoft Technology for 2024 [4][5]. - The overall high growth of these companies likely reflects the improving prosperity of the entire camera industry chain, with various segments such as security, automotive, and consumer electronics contributing to this trend [4][5]. - The global smartphone and PC sales are projected to achieve real growth in 2024, ending a period of decline, while the demand for AI-enabled applications and smart vehicles is expected to further boost the industry [4][16]. Summary by Sections Company Performance Forecasts - Yutong Optical expects a net profit of 160-200 million yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 418.56%-548.20% due to increased business volume in security and automotive optics [6]. - Hongsoft Technology anticipates a net profit of approximately 178 million yuan, representing a 101.16% year-on-year growth, driven by revenue increases in mobile smart terminals and smart vehicles [6]. - Qiu Tai Technology forecasts a net profit growth of 200%-280% for 2024, with a median profit of 284 million yuan, attributed to the positive market for AIoT devices and smartphones [6]. - Crystal Optoelectronics projects a net profit of 1-1.12 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 66.6%-86.6% due to the recovery in the global consumer electronics industry [6]. Industry Recovery Trends - The camera industry chain has shown a clear recovery trend from 2022 to 2024, with companies like Weir Shares and Siterway experiencing rapid growth due to their entry into the domestic Android smartphone market [8][11]. - The revenue growth rates for optical lens companies have also improved significantly, with companies like O-Film showing a 34% increase in revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 [11]. Demand from AI and Smart Vehicles - Global smartphone sales are projected to reach 334 million units in Q4 2024, marking a 1.7% year-on-year increase, indicating a turnaround from previous declines [16][19]. - The domestic retail sales of new energy vehicles are expected to grow by 41% in 2024, with a penetration rate of 47.6%, driven by the advantages of smart and hybrid vehicles over traditional fuel vehicles [20][24].

第一创业证券研究所 核[心Ta观bl点e_：Summary] 证券研究报告 点评报告 2025 年 1 月 16 日 晨会纪要 一、宏观经济组： 事件： 分析师：李怀军 证书编号：S1080510120001 电话：010-63197789 邮箱：lihuaijun@fcsc.com 证书编号：S1080524120001 电话：0755-23838533 邮箱：guoqiang@fcsc.com 1 月 15 日（星期三），美国劳工部统计局公布 12 月 CPI 数据；1 月 14 日（星 期二）公布 PPI 数据。 点评： 12 月美国未季调 CPI 同比为 2.9%，预期 2.9%,前值（11 月）为 2.7%；季调后 CPI 环比为 0.4%，预期为 0.3%，前值为 0.3%。 分析师：郭强 从 12 月核心 CPI 来看，未季调同比为 3.2%，预期为 3.3%，前值为 3.3%；季 调后核心环比为 0.2%，预期为 0.2%，前值为 0.3%。 12 月美国 CPI 未季调环比为 0.0%，前值为-0.1%；未季调核心 CPI 环比为 0.0%， 前值为 0.1%。从结构上看，各分项 12 月与 ...

证券研究报告 点评报告 2025 年 1 月 15 日 晨会纪要 一[、T宏ab观le研_究Su组mmary] 第一创业证券研究所 证书编号：S1080524120001 电话：0755-23838533 邮箱：guoqiang@fcsc.com 点评： 从存量上看，12 月 M1 同比增长-1.4%，高于 Wind 预期-3.3%，较 11 月-3.7% 回升 2.3 个百分点；M2 同比增长 7.3%，与 Wind 预期持平，较 11 月 7.1% 回升 0.2 个百分点；12 月 M1-M2 同比之差为-8.7%，较上月回升 2.1 个百 分点，表明货币流通速度有所回升。而 12 月社融存量同比为 8.0%，与 Wind 预期持平，较 11 月 7.8%回升 0.2 个百分点；社融与 M2 同比之差为 0.7%， 与 11 月持平，说明对资金需求增速相对于资金供给增速，保持相对稳定。 分析师：郭强 从增量上看，12 月社融新增规模为 2.86 万亿元，前值为 2.33 万亿；同比 多增 9249 亿元；其中，政府债券同比多增 8288 亿，企业债券同比多增 2588 亿元，银行贷款少增 2685 亿元， ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended," indicating a positive outlook for the industry fundamentals and an expectation that the industry index will outperform the benchmark index [18]. Core Viewpoints - The TV panel prices are showing an upward trend in January 2025, with 65-inch and 75-inch panels increasing by $2 per unit, reaching $178 and $242 respectively. The 85-inch panels are priced at $360, while smaller panels (32 to 55 inches) remain stable compared to December 2024 [2][4]. - The domestic panel market is expected to benefit from the "old-for-new" appliance replacement policy, which is projected to sustain throughout 2025, leading to increased panel sales [6]. - The exit of major players like Samsung and LG from the TFT TV panel industry has resulted in a higher concentration of market share among domestic manufacturers, with a reported 68.6% market share for Chinese manufacturers by November 2024 [11]. - The trend towards larger TV sizes is evident, with the market share of 85-inch TVs increasing from 10% to 20% in 2024, indicating a growing demand for larger panels [13]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - In January 2025, TV panel prices are on the rise, with specific increases noted for larger sizes. The 65-inch panel is now at $178, the 75-inch at $242, and the 85-inch at $360, while smaller sizes remain stable [2][4]. Market Dynamics - The "old-for-new" policy has led to a 7.7% increase in sales area for large panels in 2024, and this trend is expected to continue into 2025, further boosting sales [6]. - The exit of Samsung and LG has reduced the number of major players in the market, enhancing the competitive landscape for remaining domestic manufacturers [11]. Size Trends - The retail market for 85-inch TVs has seen a significant increase in share, rising from 10% to 20% in 2024, reflecting a shift towards larger screen sizes [13].

证券研究报告 行业研究 2025 年 1 月 14 日 锂电材料行业景气有望见底回升 核[心T观ab点le：_Summary] 风险提示： 上述观点主要根据过去数据分析得出，可能因为后续产能出清不理想、下游需求 不如预期，而出现最终结果与分析预测结论相背离的情况。仅供投资分析时参考。 第一创业证券研究所 证书编号：S1080524120001 电话：0755-23838533 邮箱：guoqiang@fcsc.com 请务必阅读正文后免责条款部分 由于过度投资，锂电池产业链价格从 2021 年底开始持续下跌，无论是锂矿、 锂盐、隔膜、负极、铜箔、铝箔等价格都大幅下跌，其中隔膜价格下跌 60%， 电池级碳酸锂下跌 73%，人造石墨下跌 46%，相关上市公司业绩也都跟随大幅 下滑或亏损。 分析师：郭强 2024 年年初开始，锂电材料产业链价格开始出现逐季跌幅缩小或止跌趋势。 2024 年全年隔膜价格下跌 30%，但下半年基本稳定，跌幅接近为零。电池级 碳酸锂下跌 25%，但是下半年跌幅 17%，四季度跌幅 1%。人造石墨价格 2024 年全年跌幅 18%，但是下半年价格和隔膜价格类似，基本企稳，未有继续下跌。 产 ...

证券研究报告 点评报告 2025 年 1 月 14 日 晨会纪要 一[、T宏ab观le研_究Su组mmary] 第一创业证券研究所 事件： 证书编号：S1080510120001 电话：010-63197789 邮箱：lihuaijun@fcsc.com 证书编号：S1080524120001 电话：0755-23838533 邮箱：guoqiang@fcsc.com 第 1 页 共 4 页 晨会纪要 1 月 13 日（星期一）中国海关公布 2024 年 12 月外贸数据。 分析师：李怀军 点评： 以美元计价，中国 2024 年 12 月出口同比增长 10.7%，高于 WIND 预期 7.14%， 前值（11 月）增长 6.7%；进口增长 1.0%，高于 WIND 预期-1.02%，前值增长 -3.9%；贸易顺差 1048 亿美元，首次创出 1000 亿美元以上的单月最高顺差纪 录，前值 974 亿美元。以累计增速计，1-12 月出口同比增为 5.9%，而 1-11 月 为 5.4%；1-12 月进口累计增速 1.1%，而 1-11 月为 1.2%。从累计增速看，进 出口增速更为稳定，自二季度起出口逐月上升， ...

Economic Overview - In December, the U.S. added 256,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding the expected increase of 160,000, marking the highest monthly increase since June 2024 [2] - The unemployment rate in December was 4.1%, lower than the expected 4.2% [2] - Private non-farm average hourly wages increased by 3.9% year-on-year, slightly below the expected 4.0% [2] Employment Structure - Government jobs increased by 33,000, while private goods-producing jobs saw a decrease of 8,000 [3] - The private service sector added 231,000 jobs, with notable increases in education and healthcare (80,000), leisure and hospitality (43,000), and professional and business services (28,000) [3] Market Reaction - The positive employment data led to a rise in the dollar index by 48 basis points to 109.66, while U.S. Treasury yields fell [4] - Gold prices increased by 0.76% to $2,690 per ounce, and silver rose by 0.94% to $30.38 per ounce [4] - U.S. stock markets experienced declines, with NASDAQ and Dow Jones down by 1.63% and S&P 500 down by 1.54% respectively [4] Panel Industry - TV panel prices showed an upward trend in January 2025, with 65-inch and 75-inch panels increasing by $2 each, reaching $178 and $242 respectively [7] - The sales area for large-size panels grew by 7.7% due to government subsidies for replacing old appliances, which is expected to continue into 2025 [7] - The market share of Chinese LCD TV panel manufacturers reached 68.6% by November 2024, indicating improved industry concentration and competition [7][8] Consumer Sector - Yanjing Beer is expected to significantly reduce losses in Q4 2024, with a projected sales increase of 30% for its core product [10] - Despite a strong performance in 2023, Yanjing's stock price fell by approximately 20%, but has since rebounded by about 20% since late September 2024 [10] - Wanchen Group is noted for its strong performance, with potential for further growth if market conditions improve [12]

Core Insights - The report highlights the stability of CPI and PPI in December, with CPI year-on-year growth at 0.1% and PPI at -2.3%, indicating ongoing deflationary pressures in the economy [3][5] - The report anticipates continued growth in the energy storage sector, projecting over 50% growth in 2025 due to new policies in Shanghai [10] - The automotive industry is expected to benefit from domestic policies, with a projected growth rate of 5.5% in 2024 for passenger vehicles, particularly in the new energy segment [11][12] Economic Indicators - December CPI year-on-year growth was 0.1%, matching expectations, while core CPI grew by 0.4% [3] - December PPI year-on-year decreased by 2.3%, with a month-on-month change of -0.1% [4] - Food prices saw a significant decline, with fresh vegetables down 2.4% and pork prices down 2.1% [4] Industry Analysis - The highest month-on-month increase in December was seen in the electricity and heat production and supply industry at 0.9% [5] - The coal mining and washing industry experienced the largest decline at -1.9% [5] - The report notes a recovery in service sector performance, with a month-on-month increase of 0.1% in December [5] Company Performance - Hai Da Group expects a net profit of 4.25 billion to 4.8 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 55% to 75% [12] - Zhongshi Technology anticipates a net profit of 190 million to 220 million yuan for 2024, representing a growth of 157.6% to 198.28% [13] - The report indicates that the consumer electronics sector is showing signs of recovery, particularly driven by AI applications [13] Market Trends - The report emphasizes the positive outlook for the domestic automotive market, driven by government incentives and increasing penetration of new energy vehicles [11][12] - The energy storage market is projected to grow significantly due to new regulations and increasing demand for renewable energy integration [10] - The report suggests that the agricultural sector, particularly in pig farming, is expected to see improved profitability as feed costs decline [12]

证券研究报告 点评报告 2025 年 1 月 9 日 第一创业证券研究所 证书编号：S1080524120001 电话：0755-23838533 邮箱：guoqiang@fcsc.com 晨会纪要 一[、T策ab略le和_先Su进m制m造a组r：y] 1、牧原股份公告 2024 年业绩预告，全年销售收入 1,362.25 亿元，同比增 长 22.9%，销售生猪 7160.2 万头，增 12%，净利 175 亿元，大幅扭亏，基 本符合同花顺统计的一致预期。四季度单季度，收入 394 亿元，同比增长 41.4%，生猪出栏增长 28%，净利润 70 亿，同比增长 390%。在生猪价格环 比持续下滑情况下，公司四季度表现明显好于全年，公司龙头地位进一步 稳固。牧原股份 2024 年 12 月的养殖成本每公斤已经降到了 13 块钱左右， 目前期货的价格最低在 13 块钱左右，现货价格在 18 元左右，所以整个生 猪养殖链，2025 年 Q1 的净利润还会是不错的，即使在期货最低价情况下， 产业链也已经走出了过去的亏损。 分析师：郭强 2、甬矽电子公布了 2024 年的业绩预告，预计营业收入 35 亿元至 37 亿元， ...

证券研究报告 点评报告 2025 年 1 月 7 日 晨会纪要 一[、T策ab略le和_先Su进m制m造a组r：y] 第一创业证券研究所 事件一： 1、国家发展改革委、国家能源局印发《电力系统调节能力优化专项行动实 施方案（2025-2027 年）》。方案要求，到 2027 年，通过调节能力的建设 优化，支撑 2025—2027 年年均新增 2 亿千瓦以上新能源的合理消纳利用， 全国新能源利用率不低于 90%。 分析师：李怀军 2、2025 年高工锂电调研国内 1 月锂电产业排产"上修"，其中铁锂电池排 产预同增 150%，三元电池排产也实现同比增长。 点评： 看好新型储能和锂电上游产业链景气度触底反弹的投资机会。 根据《电力系统调节能力优化专项行动实施方案（2025-2027 年）》，要求 推动具备条件的存量新能源配建储能实施改造，由电力调度机构统一调度 运行，提升调用水平。在统筹安排各类调节资源建设规模基础上，结合系 统供电保障和安全稳定运行需要，优化选择适宜新型储能技术，高质量建 设一批技术先进、发挥功效的新型储能电站。到 2027 年，通过调节能力的 建设优化，支撑 2025—2027 年年均新增 2 ...