证券研究报告 点评报告 2025 年 1 月 8 日 晨会纪要 一[、T策ab略le和_先Su进m制m造a组r：y] 1、美国 12 月服务业指数上升 2 点至 54.1,新订单指标上升 0.5 点至 54.2， 企业活动指标跳升 4.5 点，达到三个月高位。美国服务业指数明显超预期， 还有美国 11 月份职位空缺达到 809.8 万，高于预期的 774 万，职位空缺数 升至六个月高位，裁员人数基本持平，进一步证明劳动力市场稳固。导致 美国降息预期又往后延。昨天美股特别是科技股回调比较多，英伟达跌了 六个点，可能与 CES 展第一天 Nvida 的新产品发布演讲没有特别超预期的 内容，和包括微软 2025 年数据中心的资本支出指引是 800 亿美元，略低于 市场 850 亿美元的预期有关。昨天 A 股的反弹主要是半导体，还有包括通 信等相关的行业领涨，因此昨天美股的表现可能会对今天 A 股的走势带来 向下的压力。如果今天 A 股能守住最近 2 日的低点，不论下跌的底部可能 就能够确认了。 分析师：李怀军 邮箱：lihuaijun@fcsc.com 分析师：郭强 2、昨天天赐材料公布 2024 年业绩预告。预计 ...

Economic Performance - In November, industrial added value grew by 5.4% year-on-year, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points from October[2] - The retail sales of consumer goods nominally increased by 3.0% year-on-year in November, a significant drop of 1.8 percentage points from September[2] - Fixed asset investment cumulative year-on-year growth was 3.3% from January to November, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[5] Trade and External Demand - From January to November, exports increased by 5.4% year-on-year, while imports grew by only 1.2%, indicating stronger external demand[10] - The trade surplus for January to November reached $884.7 billion, surpassing the total for the previous year of $882.1 billion[10] - In November, the export growth rate was 6.7%, a decrease of 6 percentage points from October, while imports fell by 3.9%[6] Consumer Prices and Inflation - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in November decreased by 0.6% month-on-month, with food prices dropping by 2.7%[3] - Year-on-year, food prices rose by 1.0% in November, down 1.9 percentage points from October, while non-food prices remained flat at 0.0%[3] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a month-on-month increase of 0.1% in November, indicating slight inflationary pressure[23] Employment and Consumer Confidence - The urban unemployment rate in November was stable at 5.0%, with youth unemployment remaining high at 17.1% for ages 16-24[29] - The consumer confidence index was recorded at 86.9 in October, reflecting a slight recovery but still significantly lower than the 121.5 level in January 2022[29] Real Estate Market - Real estate investment saw a year-on-year decline of 10.4% from January to November, with new construction down by 23%[30] - In November, housing sales showed signs of improvement, with a year-on-year increase of 19.8% in transaction volume compared to the previous year[31] - The real estate price index for new homes in November was down 6.1% year-on-year, but showed a slight recovery of 0.1 percentage points from October[34]

Manufacturing PMI Insights - The manufacturing PMI for November is 50.3%, maintaining above 50 for two consecutive months, with a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points from October[2] - The production index in November is 52.4%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month[6] - New orders index has returned to expansion at 50.8%, marking the first increase since May 2024, rising by 0.8 percentage points[12] Demand and Supply Dynamics - The new orders minus finished goods inventory index stands at 3.4%, up 0.3 percentage points, indicating a high level over the past year[3] - The procurement quantity index is at 51.0%, increasing by 1.7 percentage points, indicating a return to expansion for the first time since May 2024[18] - The import index is at 47.3%, up 0.3 percentage points, reflecting weaker external demand compared to domestic demand[12] Sector Performance - The non-manufacturing PMI is at 50.0%, down 0.2 percentage points, with the construction sector falling to 49.7%, indicating contraction for the first time since March 2020[4] - The comprehensive PMI output index remains stable at 50.8%, indicating overall expansion in business activities[12] Inventory and Pricing Trends - Finished goods inventory index is at 47.4%, up 0.5 percentage points, while raw materials inventory remains steady at 48.2%[18] - The factory price index is at 47.7%, down 2.2 percentage points, indicating insufficient effective demand despite new orders returning to expansion[20] - The difference between factory price index and raw material purchase price index is -2.1%, indicating a potential improvement in manufacturing profits, although still at a low level[20] Business Size Analysis - Large enterprises have a PMI of 50.9%, down 0.6 percentage points, while medium enterprises are at 50.0%, up 0.6 percentage points, indicating slight improvement[21] - Small enterprises show a significant recovery with a PMI of 49.1%, up 1.6 percentage points, although still in contraction[21]

Economic Performance - In October, industrial added value grew by 5.3% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from September[2] - The industrial enterprises' production and sales rate rose to 97.3%, up 1.3 percentage points from September, indicating improved supply-demand relations[2] - The trade surplus in October was $95.7 billion, the second highest on record, although lower than June's $98.6 billion[7] External Demand - October export growth reached 12.7% in USD terms, a significant increase compared to September's 2.4%, while import growth fell to -2.3%[7] - The cumulative export growth from January to October was 5.1%, up from 4.3% in the previous period, while cumulative import growth was 1.7%[11] Domestic Demand - Social retail sales in October nominally increased by 4.8% year-on-year, a rise of 1.6 percentage points from September[3] - Fixed asset investment growth for the first ten months was 3.4%, consistent with the previous period, with manufacturing investment showing the strongest growth at 9.3%[6] Consumer Prices - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in October showed a year-on-year increase of 0.3%, slightly below the expected 0.4%[17] - Food prices rose by 2.9% year-on-year, significantly higher than non-food prices, which fell by 0.3%[17] Real Estate Sector - The National Real Estate Market Index in October was 92.5, up 0.1 percentage points from September, indicating signs of recovery in the real estate sector[36] - New home prices in first-tier cities turned positive for the first time this year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4%[36]

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Overview - The manufacturing PMI for October in China is 50.1%, indicating a return to the expansion zone after five months of contraction, up 0.3 percentage points from September[1] - The production index for October is 52%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points from September[4] - New orders index stands at 50%, reflecting a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, while new export orders decreased to 47.3%, down 0.2 percentage points[7] Group 2: Supply and Demand Indicators - The index representing supply-demand relationship (new orders minus finished goods inventory) is at 3.1%, up 1.6 percentage points from last month, marking a high level for the year[2] - The procurement quantity index is at 49.3%, an increase of 1.7 percentage points, indicating higher purchasing activity among manufacturers[14] - The finished goods inventory index is at 46.9%, down 1.5 percentage points, suggesting effective destocking by manufacturers[14] Group 3: Employment and Business Expectations - The employment index for October is at 48.4%, showing a slight recovery of 0.2 percentage points but remains below the neutral level of 50%[19] - Manufacturing enterprises' expectations for production activities improved to 54%, up 2 percentage points from the previous month[10] - The overall non-manufacturing PMI is at 50.2%, a 0.2 percentage point increase from September, with the service sector at 50.1% and construction at 50.4%[3] Group 4: Performance by Enterprise Size - Large enterprises have a PMI of 51.5%, up 0.9 percentage points, indicating continued expansion[16] - Medium-sized enterprises have a PMI of 49.4%, showing a slight improvement but still in contraction territory[16] - Small enterprises have a PMI of 47.5%, down 1 percentage point, indicating the weakest performance among the three categories[16]

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Overview - The manufacturing PMI for September in China is 49.8%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points from August[1] - The production index for September is 51.2%, rising by 1.4 percentage points, indicating a return to the expansion zone above 50%[3] - New orders in September are at 49.9%, up by 1 percentage point from August, while new export orders decreased to 47.5%, down by 1.2 percentage points[6] Group 2: Supply and Demand Indicators - The supply-demand relationship index, calculated as new orders minus finished goods inventory, is at 1.5%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points from the previous month[8] - The procurement volume minus the backlog of orders indicates production enthusiasm at 3.6%, up by 0.5 percentage points from August[8] - Finished goods inventory index is at 48.4%, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points, while raw material inventory index is at 47.7%, down by 0.1 percentage points[10] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing PMI Insights - The non-manufacturing PMI index is at 50%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from August, indicating a slowdown[6] - The service sector PMI is at 49.9%, marking the first contraction below 50% since 2023, while the construction sector PMI is at 50.7%, up by 0.1 percentage points[6] Group 4: Business Conditions by Company Size - Large enterprises have a PMI of 50.6%, up by 0.2 percentage points, remaining in the expansion zone[12] - Medium-sized enterprises have a PMI of 49.2%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points, while small enterprises show a significant rise to 48.5%, up by 2.1 percentage points[12] - The employment index for September is at 48.2%, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points, but still below the neutral level of 50%[14]

宏观研究 ● 6月中国制造业 PMI 为 49.5%,与5月持平,连续两月处于收缩区间。 其中,6月生产指数为50.6%,较5月回落0.2个百分点,但仍处于50% 个百分点;而6月新出口订单为48.3%,与5月持平。而从代表内需的 进口指数看,6月为46.9%,较5月回升 0.1个百分点。可见,6月制 ● 从代表供求关系的具体指数角度看,用新订单减去产成品库存来代表供 从库存角度看,6月产成品库存指数为 48.3%,较上月回升 1.8个百分 库存销售比上升,企业采购的积极性不高,原材料库存下降。 较5月回落0.5个百分点。 2024 年7月1日 证书编号:S1080510120001 摘要: 以上扩张区间。从需求上看,6月新订单为 49.5%,较5月回落 0.1 造业需求与上月基本持平。 的较低水平;6月在手订单指数为 45.0%,较上月回落 0.3个百分点; 3.1%,又较上月回落 0.9个百分点,回落至一年来的最低水平。 . 预示制造业企业利润较上月有所改善。 ● 6月制造业 PMI 指数与上月持平 分析师 李怀军 电话:010-63197789 从价格指数上看,6月出厂价格指数为 47.9%,较上月回落 ...

宏观研究 分析师 李怀军 电话：010-63197789 5 月消费企稳巩固经济回升态势 摘要： 5 月出口以美元计同比增速为 7.6%，较 4 月大幅回升 6.1 个百分点； 由于全球经济的复苏，5 月出口的超预期，带动生产的企稳。全球制 造业 PMI 指数为 50.9%，较 4 月回升 0.6 个百分点；全球服务业 PMI 为 54.1%，较 4 月回升 1.4 个百分点，均创出一年来的最高水平；而 5 月中国非制造业 PMI，与全球其它主要经济体有着较大的差距；从中 可以看出，内需虽有所企稳，但内生动力仍不足。 请务必阅读正文后免责条款部分 [Table_Summary] 宏观评论意见 证书编号：S1080510120001 邮箱：lihuaijun@fcsc.com 2024 年 6 月 17 日 从服务业生产看，5 月服务业生产指数为 4.8%，较 5 月回升 1.3 个 百分点；而 1-5 月服务业生产指数同比为 5.0%，与上月持平，一季 度为 5.5%。而社会消费品零售总额名义增速，5 月为 3.7%，较 4 月 回升 1.4 个百分点；而 1-5 月中为 4.1%，也与上月持平，一季度为 4 ...

● 国家统计局 5月 31 日公布中国制造业 PMI 为 49.5%,较 4 月回落 0.9 个百分点,重新回落至收缩区间。其中,5 月生产指数为 50.8%,较 4 月回落 2.1 个百分点,但仍处于 50%以上扩张区间。从需求上看,5月 新订单为 49.6%,较 4月回落 1.5个百分点;而 5月新出口订单为 48.3%,较4月回落2.3个百分点,两者均回落至50%以下的收缩区间。 5 月在手订单指数为 45.3%,较上月回落 0.3 个百分点。可见,5 月制 造业呈现供强需弱的局面,且外需较内需的回落幅度更大。 评论意见 邮箱:lihuaijun@fcsc.com 5月非制造业 PMI 指数为 51.1%,较4月回落 0.1个百分点,仍处 于 50%以上的扩张区间。其中,服务业为 50.5%,较 4月回升 0.2 个百分点,继续处于 50%以上的扩张区间;而 5月综合 PM 产出指 数为 51.0%,较4月回落 0.7个百分点。 PMI:生产 54.0 52.0 50.0 48.0 PMI:供货商配送时间, PMI:新订单 46.0 44.0 PMI:从业人员 PMI:原材料库存 2024-05 -- ...

无。 点评 分行业看利润增速,上游有色利润同比增速较高,而煤炭和钢铁下滑幅度较大;与消 费相关的下游中,化纤和造纸表现最好,食品饮料利润增速较为稳定,而纺织服装、 家具和医药业4月改善幅度较大;而中游行业中,汽车,计算机、通讯和其它电子设 备制造业,计算机、通信和其他电子设备制造业,铁路、船舶、航空航天和其他运输 设备制造业,以及汽车制造业表现最好,通用设备制造业改善较为明显,电气机械及 器材制造业和专用设备制造业表现最差。 策略: 详见附件《策略日报》。 事件 内部资料,请勿外传 内部资料,请勿外传 宏观: 4 月全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总额 5891.6亿元,同比增长 4.0%,而3月同比为- 3.5%。从三大分类看, 电力、热力、燃气及水的生产和供应业利润增速最高,4月为 33.1%;其次是制造业,为21.4%;最后是采矿业,为-16.2%。从营业收入利润率看,1- 4 月为 5.0%,而 1-3月为 4.86%。其中,制造业为 4.02%。 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------- ...