Group 1: Defense Industry - The report highlights the signing of a defense agreement between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, with potential participation from UAE and Qatar, indicating a shift towards seeking security guarantees from Chinese weapon systems, which is expected to significantly enhance Pakistan's weapon procurement capabilities [2] - The report anticipates a rebound in the military industry due to increased funding from the wealthiest Middle Eastern nations supporting Pakistan's military procurement [2] Group 2: Semiconductor Industry - Huawei's recent announcements at the 2025 Huawei Connect Conference detail a roadmap for the Ascend chip series, with the Ascend 950PR expected in Q1 2026 and the Ascend 960 in Q4 2027, indicating a trend of increasing chip usage in computing clusters [3] - The report suggests that the growth in chip usage will lead to a significant increase in demand for high-speed optical interconnects and high-end PCB, thus improving the outlook for the optical connection, PCB, and high-end chip manufacturing supply chains [3] Group 3: Energy Storage Industry - The report discusses insights from the 2025 World Energy Storage Conference, where the focus is on long-duration energy storage as a key development direction as the power system transitions to a stage where renewable energy sources exceed 50% of total generation [6] - Technologies such as vanadium flow batteries, compressed air storage, and hydrogen storage are expected to gain traction due to their longer discharge times and lower capacity costs, indicating a sustained high demand in the energy storage sector [6] Group 4: Home Appliance Industry - The report notes that Boss Electric's revenue for the first half of 2025 was 4.608 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 2.58%, with net profit dropping by 6.28%, reflecting challenges in the kitchen appliance sector linked to the real estate market [8] - The report highlights a significant drop in new residential sales and a contraction in the market for high-end renovation projects, which is expected to continue impacting the kitchen appliance industry negatively [8]

Macro Economic Group - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate to a range of 4-4.25%, marking the first rate cut after five pauses this year, with 11 out of 12 voting members in favor [4][5] - The Fed's economic outlook has been adjusted, with GDP growth expectations for this year and next raised by 0.2 percentage points to 1.6% and 1.8% respectively, while the unemployment rate forecast has been lowered by 0.1 percentage points for the next two years [6] Industry Comprehensive Group - Western Digital has announced a price increase for all mechanical hard drive products due to unprecedented demand across its product range, while NAND flash prices have also risen by 10% [16] - The AI infrastructure investment is expected to maintain high growth, with projections indicating a 500-fold increase in AI storage capacity demand by 2035 [17] Advanced Manufacturing Group - A new generation of solid-state batteries with an energy density of 500Wh/kg has been developed, with plans for a third generation to exceed this threshold by 2027 [19] - CATL is promoting sodium-ion batteries, which have an energy density of 175Wh/kg, targeting over 40% of the domestic passenger car market [19] Consumer Group - The fourth batch of 690 billion yuan in special bonds for consumer goods replacement will be distributed as planned, completing the annual target of 3000 billion yuan [21] - The sales performance of brands under Ruyao Chen has shown significant growth, with one brand achieving a GMV of approximately 140 million yuan in August 2025 [21]

Macro Economic Group - The US retail sales in August increased by 0.6% month-on-month, exceeding the expected increase of 0.2%, with the previous value revised from 0.5% to 0.6% [3] - Core retail sales rose by 0.7% month-on-month, surpassing the expected 0.4%, with the prior value adjusted from 0.3% to 0.4% [3] - The US industrial output increased by 0.1% month-on-month, against an expected decrease of 0.1%, with the previous value revised from a decrease of 0.1% to a decrease of 0.4% [3] Industry Comprehensive Group - GCL-Poly Energy announced a strategic financing agreement with a Middle Eastern sovereign fund-backed Wujing Capital, raising approximately HKD 54.46 billion, with 65% allocated for supply-side reform and structural adjustments in polysilicon capacity [7] - The remaining 35% of the funds will be used for general working capital and repayment of existing loans, indicating a positive shift in the domestic photovoltaic industry towards reducing excess capacity [7] Advanced Manufacturing Group - In August 2025, sales of new energy tractors reached 14,000 units, marking an 11% month-on-month increase and a 212% year-on-year increase, with the growth rate expanding by 17 percentage points compared to the previous month [9] - New energy tractors accounted for 78.89% of the new energy heavy truck market in August, up from 75.97% the previous month, indicating a strong market position [9] Consumer Group - On September 16, 2025, the Ministry of Commerce and eight other departments issued policies aimed at boosting service consumption and expanding domestic demand, with specific directions and support policies for various service sectors [11] - In the education sector, the policy encourages the expansion of pilot programs and supports the inclusion of more service consumption areas in the encouraged foreign investment industry catalog, which is expected to benefit K12 non-academic training and vocational education [11] - The tourism sector will benefit from policies aimed at attracting more foreign visitors and optimizing travel schedules to increase service consumption time [11]

Macro Economic Group - In August, the industrial added value above designated size in China grew by 5.2% year-on-year, below the expected 5.8%, and down 0.5 percentage points from July. Cumulative growth from January to August was 6.2%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous period [5] - Fixed asset investment growth from January to August was only 0.5%, significantly lower than the expected 1.3%, and down 1.1 percentage points from January to July. Manufacturing investment was at 5.1%, down 1.1 percentage points, while real estate investment plummeted by 12.9% [5][6] - The retail sales of consumer goods in August saw a nominal year-on-year growth of 3.4%, below the expected 3.8%, and down 0.3 percentage points from July. The cumulative growth from January to August was 4.6%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous period [6] Industry Comprehensive Group - Following talks between U.S. and Chinese officials, a framework agreement was reached regarding TikTok's ownership, indicating that U.S.-China relations are unlikely to worsen in the short term. The probability of a U.S. interest rate cut in September has increased, which may positively impact the domestic economic and capital market environment [10] - The sales of forklifts in August reached 118,087 units, a year-on-year increase of 19.4%. Cumulative sales from January to August were 976,026 units, up 12.9%, indicating a sustained high level of market activity driven by electrification and automation [11] Advanced Manufacturing Group - Sales of new energy heavy trucks reached 114,353 units from January to August, a remarkable year-on-year growth of 178.84%. In August alone, sales were 17,922 units, marking a 181.66% increase year-on-year [13] - The supply ecosystem for new energy heavy trucks is evolving from merely manufacturing to operational capabilities, with demand shifting from subsidy-driven to total cost of ownership (TCO) and organizational efficiency [13] Consumer Group - Huali Group reported a revenue of 12.661 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 10.36%. However, net profit fell by 8.75% due to operational inefficiencies in new factories and fluctuations in orders from existing clients [15] - Despite the decline in net profit, operational efficiency indicators showed improvement, with a capacity utilization rate of 95.78% and inventory levels at their lowest in six quarters, reflecting strong downstream demand [15][16]

Economic Performance - In August, the industrial added value for large-scale enterprises grew by 5.2% year-on-year, below the expected 5.8%[4] - The cumulative year-on-year growth from January to August is 6.2%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points compared to January to July[4] - The export delivery value of industrial enterprises in August was -0.4%, marking the first negative growth since 2024, a drop of 1.2 percentage points from July[4] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment from January to August showed a cumulative growth of only 0.5%, significantly lower than the expected 1.3%, and down 1.1 percentage points from January to July[4] - Real estate investment saw a sharp decline of -12.9% year-on-year from January to August, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points compared to the previous period[4] Consumer Activity - The total retail sales of consumer goods in August nominally grew by 3.4%, below the expected 3.8%, and down 0.3 percentage points from July[5] - The cumulative year-on-year growth for retail sales from January to August is 4.6%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points compared to January to July[5] Employment and Unemployment - The urban surveyed unemployment rate in August was 5.3%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from July, with an average of 5.2% from January to August remaining stable[5] Real Estate Market - The National Housing Market Index for August was 93.1, down 0.2 percentage points from July, marking five consecutive months of decline[6] - The year-on-year growth rate for new housing starts from January to August was -19.5%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous period[6] Trade Balance - In August, the trade surplus was $102.3 billion, an increase of $4.1 billion from July, with a cumulative trade surplus of $785.3 billion from January to August, up 22% year-on-year[10]

Macro Economic Group - In August, M2 growth was 8.8% year-on-year, the highest since December 2023, while M1 growth was 6.0%, the highest since January 2023, indicating a significant acceleration in the speed of money circulation [5][6] - The total social financing (TSF) in August was 2.57 trillion yuan, lower than the previous year's figure by 463 billion yuan, with a notable decrease in government bonds and loans [5] - Bank credit increased by 590 billion yuan in August, but this was a year-on-year decrease of 310 billion yuan, indicating a contraction in both household and corporate loans [6] Industry Comprehensive Group - Recent US sanctions on Chinese companies, including Shanghai Fudan, may lead to short-term stock sell-offs, but China's countermeasures could benefit domestic analog chip manufacturers [9] - The global analog chip market is recovering, with price increases from major manufacturers, suggesting improved profitability for domestic firms if anti-dumping investigations succeed [9] Advanced Manufacturing Group - In August, China's battery sales reached 134.5 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 45.6%, with lithium iron phosphate batteries accounting for the majority of the growth [11] - The National Development and Reform Commission aims for new energy storage capacity to reach 180 million kilowatts by 2027, driving significant investment in the sector [12] - The automotive industry is projected to see a 3% increase in total sales in 2025, with a 20% growth in new energy vehicle sales, indicating a shift towards smart and electric vehicles [12] Consumer Group - Jiangnan Buyi reported a total revenue of 5.548 billion yuan for the 2025 fiscal year, a 4.6% increase, driven by online sales and store expansion [14] - The company's membership system plays a crucial role, with over 80% of retail revenue coming from members, highlighting the importance of customer loyalty [14] Bond Research Group - The bond market experienced an overall rise in interest rates, influenced by concerns over high redemption fees for bond funds and a weak inflation outlook [16]

Macro Economic Group - The August CPI in the US was reported at 2.9% year-on-year, matching expectations and up from 2.7% in July; the seasonally adjusted month-on-month CPI increased by 0.4%, above the expected 0.3% and the previous 0.2% [3] - The August PPI year-on-year rose by 2.6%, significantly below the expected 3.3%, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.1%, contrary to the expected increase of 0.3% [4] - Following the CPI announcement, traders increased bets on the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates, with a 92% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September and expectations of at least two rate cuts by the end of 2025 [4] Industry Comprehensive Group - Mexico plans to raise import tariffs on approximately 1,400 products, including automobiles and toys, from countries without free trade agreements, which may reduce export growth from China [7] - The stock price of Sandisk surged by 16%, with a seven-day increase exceeding 68%, indicating a positive outlook for the global storage industry driven by rising AI demand [7] Advanced Manufacturing Group - Shandong Province announced the results of its first competitive bidding for renewable energy prices, with wind power priced at 0.319 yuan/kWh and photovoltaic at 0.225 yuan/kWh, marking a significant decrease from previous benchmark prices [9] - The Chinese government is addressing over $1 trillion in unpaid bills to private sectors, which could improve liquidity in various industries, including infrastructure and transportation [9] Consumer Group - The summer box office in 2025 reached 11.965 billion yuan, a 2.77% increase year-on-year, with total attendance rising to 321 million, a 12.75% increase [11] - The average ticket price decreased to 37.2 yuan, down 3.6 yuan from the previous year, reflecting promotional activities and a drop in minimum pricing [11] - The film "Nanjing Photo Studio" became the summer box office champion, contributing significantly to the overall market performance, which saw a strong rebound in the latter half of the summer [12]

Macroeconomic Analysis - In August, China's CPI decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, against an expectation of -0.2%, while the previous month was 0.0%. The core CPI rose by 0.9%, the highest since February 2024, compared to 0.8% in July [3][4] - The food prices increased by 0.5% month-on-month, with fresh vegetables rising by 8.5% and eggs by 1.5%. However, fresh fruit prices fell by 2.8%, and pork prices decreased by 0.5% [3][4] - The PPI in August was -2.9% year-on-year, ending a downward trend since February, with a month-on-month change of 0.0% [4] Industry Insights - Oracle's first-quarter earnings report revealed a remaining performance obligation of $455 billion, with projected revenue growth for its cloud infrastructure business significantly exceeding market expectations. However, the majority of AI orders are still supported by major U.S. tech companies, indicating limited immediate commercial benefits from AI advancements [8] - Recent discussions in the U.S. government regarding strict restrictions on drug imports from China may impact the pharmaceutical sector, particularly concerning experimental drugs for various diseases. This could lead to a potential adjustment phase for innovative drugs in the market [9] Advanced Manufacturing - A recent procurement bid for energy storage equipment in Shandong revealed a price range of 0.527–0.539 yuan/Wh. The total investment cost, including additional components, is estimated to be around 0.86-1.14 yuan/Wh [11] - The break-even price for energy storage projects varies based on usage frequency, with a dynamic payback period potentially reduced to 5-6 years if auxiliary service income is included [11] Consumer Sector - Vipshop's Q2 2025 financial report showed revenue of 25.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 4.1%. However, the company maintained a gross margin of 23.5%, indicating effective cost control measures [13][14] - The GMV increased by 1.7% to 51.4 billion yuan, marking the first positive growth in five quarters, with SVIP active users growing by 15% year-on-year [14] - Vipshop's TTM P/E ratio is approximately 9 times, suggesting significant valuation recovery potential compared to the average in the e-commerce sector [14]

Industry Overview - Ningde Times' subsidiary Yichun Times New Energy Mining Co., Ltd. is set to resume operations at the Jiangxiawo lithium mine, with mining rights and permits progressing smoothly, indicating a potential recovery in production capacity [2] - The recent anti-involution policies in China are expected to impact market-driven sectors more than government-led ones, suggesting that the actual pace of capacity clearance in related industries may be slower than market expectations, leading to potential price declines [2] - The overall sentiment in the new energy vehicle market is weak, with retail sales in August showing a year-on-year growth of only 7.5%, the slowest in 18 months, and a significant drop in export volume [6] Company Specifics - Yangtze Memory Technologies Co., Ltd. has established its third phase in Wuhan with a registered capital of 20.72 billion yuan, indicating the commencement of expansion plans, although the scale is smaller compared to the second phase [3] - Miniso's mid-year report shows total revenue of 9.393 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.1%, with the second quarter revenue reaching 4.97 billion yuan, up 23.1%, exceeding market expectations [8] - The growth in Miniso's revenue is driven by increased overseas market contributions, with the U.S. market growing by 80%, and the TOPTOY brand seeing a revenue increase of 73% [9] - Despite revenue growth, Miniso's profit faced pressure, with a net profit of 906 million yuan in the first half, down 23.1%, primarily due to losses from investments in Yonghui Superstores [9]

6 证券研究报告 点评报告 2025 年 9 月 9 日 晨会纪要 第一创业证券研究所 分析师：刘笑瑜 证书编号： S1080525070001 电话：0755-23838239 邮箱：liuxiaoyu@fcsc.com 核[心Ta观bl点e_：Summary] 一、宏观经济组： 事件： 9 月 7 日上午 11 点中国海关总署公布 8 月中国外贸数据。 评论： 以人民币计，中国 8 月出口同比增速为 4.8%，前值（7 月）为 8.0%；进口增速为 1.7%，前值为 4.8%。以美元计，中国 8 月出口同比增速为 4.4%，Wind 预期为 5.9%， 前值为 7.2%；进口增速为 1.3%，Wind 预期为 3.3%，前值为 4.1%；8 月贸易顺差为 1023 亿美元，Wind 预期为 1003 亿美元，前值为 982 亿美元。 按前五大贸易伙伴排序分类，以美元计算出口增速，对东盟出口从 7 月 16.6%回升 至 8 月 22.5%；对欧盟出口从 7 月 9.2%回升至 8 月 10.4%；对美出口从 7 月-21.7% 回落至 8 月-33.1%；对韩国出口从 7 月 4.6%回落至 8 月-1. ...