证券研究报告 点评报告 2025 年 2 月 28 日 晨会纪要 第一创业证券研究所 分析师：李怀军 证书编号：S1080510120001 电话：010-63197789 证书编号：S1080524120001 电话：0755-23838533 邮箱：guoqiang@fcsc.com 核[心Ta观bl点e_：Summary] 一、策略和先进制造组： 中国光伏行业协会主办的"光伏行业 2024 年发展回顾与 2025 年形势展望研讨 会"2 月 27 日在北京召开。国家能源局新能源和可再生能源司新能源处处长 邢翼腾在会上指出，光伏制造业的内卷式竞争仍未从根本上解决，国家能源局 正在配合国家发改委、工信部等部门研究制定和完善政策措施。同时，"十五 五"可再生能源发展规划研究和思路起草正在加快推进，国家能源局将研究促 进新能源集成发展的政策措施，研究制定光伏电站升级改造和退役管理办法， 将指导和推动各地尽快研究出台适合本地新能源特点的电力市场实施细则，推 动出台促进分布式光伏就近开发利用的政策措施。目前美国英伟达的股价大 跌，国内 AI 的行情可能进入震荡阶段，市场可能会寻找新主题，该政策可能 会让新能源成为选 ...

证券研究报告 点评报告 2025 年 2 月 27 日 晨会纪要 第一创业证券研究所 分析师：李怀军 证书编号：S1080510120001 电话：010-63197789 核[心Ta观bl点e_：Summary] 一、策略和先进制造组： 三环集团公布了 2024 年度业绩快报，公司实现营业总收入 738,041.22 万元， 较上年同期增长 28.88%，实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润 219,412.65 万元， 较上年同期增长 38.78%。实现扣非后归属于上市公司股东的净利润 19.3 亿元， 同比增长 58.4%。其中第四季度实现营业收入 20 亿元，同比增长 23.3%，实现 归属于上市公司股东的净利润 5.9 亿元，同比增长 34.6%。总体来看，业绩表 现略超出 iFind 的一致预期。公司收入及利润同比增长的主要原因为：光通信、 消费电子等领域呈现恢复态势。其中公司 MLCC 产品不断实现技术和市场突破， 销售同比有较大幅度增长；受益于全球数据中心建设加快，公司光纤陶瓷插芯 及相关产品销售同比增长。由于公司是国内唯一能在高容 MLCC 方面对下游大 厂由规模出货的公司，其主要竞争对手为日本和 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Strong Buy" rating for the stock, expecting a price increase of over 20% within the next six months compared to the market benchmark index [33]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the company is currently undergoing a strategic transition from "scale expansion" to "quality optimization," with a focus on improving profitability and resource efficiency despite a slight decline in revenue [21][22]. - The financial performance for the first three quarters of 2024 shows a revenue decline of 5.8% year-on-year, with a significant net loss of 0.4 billion yuan, reflecting both internal and external pressures [4][5]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 indicates a revenue of 11.3 billion yuan, a minor decrease of 0.2% year-on-year, but a substantial net profit increase of 372.4% to 1.6 billion yuan, showcasing improved operational efficiency [15][20]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported a revenue of 22.8 billion yuan, down 5.8% year-on-year, with Q3 revenue at 6.8 billion yuan, a 14.3% decline [4][5]. - The net profit for Q3 was a loss of 0.44 billion yuan, worsening from a loss of 6.56 million yuan in the previous year [4][5]. - The overall revenue for 2024 is projected to decline by 4.0%, while profit is expected to grow by 1.1%, indicating a shift towards quality over quantity [21]. Market Dynamics - The report notes a structural adjustment in the projection industry, with a projected growth in sales volume of 3%-5% but a decline in sales revenue due to falling average prices [24]. - The low-end market is experiencing explosive growth, with 1LCD technology capturing a significant market share, while DLP technology remains stable in the mid-to-high-end segments [24][25]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on enhancing its product mix and operational efficiency, with initiatives such as the "old-for-new" policy and expansion into overseas markets [20][22]. - The report emphasizes the importance of maintaining a balance between low-end and high-end products to stabilize market share while increasing the proportion of high-margin products [22][18]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from a recovery in domestic consumption and the expansion of overseas channels, particularly in North America and Europe [15][18]. - The report suggests that the company is well-positioned to enter a new cycle of simultaneous revenue and profit improvement by 2025, driven by strategic adjustments and market opportunities [23][28].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Strong Buy" rating for the stock, expecting a price increase of over 20% within the next six months compared to the market benchmark index [23]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated significant growth momentum in the first three quarters of 2024, with revenue reaching 988 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 91.16%, and a net profit of 520 million yuan, up 170.42% [3][4]. - The core product, Wei Yi Mei, has filled a gap in the aesthetic medicine market for recombinant collagen, contributing 479 million yuan in revenue in the first half of 2024, a 105% increase, and accounting for 82% of the medical device business revenue [5][4]. - The company has made substantial progress in international expansion, becoming the first to obtain a D-class medical device registration in Vietnam for its recombinant collagen product, marking a significant breakthrough in its international strategy [12][11]. Business Expansion - The company’s revenue and profit have shown a dual high-growth trend, with the third quarter alone generating 386 million yuan, reflecting a 92.07% year-on-year growth [4][3]. - The business structure is heavily focused on high-margin recombinant collagen medical devices, maintaining a gross margin of around 95%, despite a slight decrease in the third quarter [13][12]. - The company has established a strong distribution network, covering over 3,000 aesthetic medical institutions in China, and has partnered with L'Oréal to enhance its brand presence in the high-end market [5][12]. Internationalization Strategy - The company views the Vietnamese market as a key breakthrough point, with the medical device market expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 9% from 2024 to 2033, primarily relying on imports [12][11]. - Future plans include expanding into Southeast Asia and other international markets, with potential for more registration applications and localized marketing networks [12][11]. Profitability and Product Mix - The revenue from high-margin recombinant collagen medical devices is significantly high, with a gross margin of 95%, indicating a strategic focus on high-value medical products [13][12]. - Although the growth rate for functional skincare products is lower, partnerships with international brands like L'Oréal are expected to enhance market penetration and long-term growth prospects [13][12]. Industry Trends - The recombinant collagen sector is experiencing rapid penetration, with the company being the only provider of a Class III medical device product in the domestic market, highlighting its scarcity [15][12]. - Competitors are expected to introduce similar products post-2025, but the company is actively developing new products and expanding its international presence to maintain its competitive edge [15][12].

Group 1: Shanghai Weicai Technology - In 2024, Shanghai Weicai Technology achieved operating revenue of 1,076.87 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 46.21%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 128.42 million yuan, up 8.84% year-on-year [3] - The significant revenue growth was driven by the overall improvement in the integrated circuit industry, increased market demand for testing, and higher capacity utilization rates, particularly for high-performance chips such as CPU, GPU, and AI [3] - The company has a high market share in the domestic high-end chip testing market and has significantly expanded its production capacity, with fixed assets as of September 2024 being 3.7 times that of 2021, indicating potential for sustained high growth [3] Group 2: XGIMI Technology - XGIMI Technology is expected to achieve revenue of 3,410 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 4.0%, while net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 12 million yuan, an increase of 1.1% [6] - The fourth quarter of 2024 showed a strong performance with revenue of 1,130 million yuan, only a slight decline of 0.2% year-on-year, and a net profit of 160 million yuan, a substantial increase of 372.4% year-on-year [6] - The increase in gross margin to 35% in the fourth quarter, up 7 percentage points year-on-year, was attributed to cost reductions and product structure optimization, particularly benefiting from national subsidies [6][7]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Strong Buy" rating, expecting the stock price to rise more than 20% above the market benchmark index within the next six months [19]. Core Insights - The company, ChipLink Integration, reported a total revenue of 6.51 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 22.25%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was -970 million yuan, a reduction in losses by 50.57% [4][5]. - In Q4 alone, the company achieved a revenue of 1.96 billion yuan, a 31% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of -283 million yuan, marking a 52.5% improvement [4][5]. - The growth in revenue and profit is attributed to high demand in the automotive, high-voltage industrial, and SiC sectors [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company has shown significant improvement in its gross margin, which has improved from -16.4% in 2021 to -6.8% in 2023, and is expected to turn positive at 1% for the full year of 2024, with Q4 gross margin projected at 4.6% [4][8]. - The EBITDA for 2024 is expected to improve to 2.14 billion yuan, with an EBITDA margin of 32.9%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 15.52 percentage points, positioning it above many global peers [8]. Business Segmentation - In the automotive sector, the company generated 3.253 billion yuan in revenue, a year-on-year increase of approximately 41.02%, accounting for 50% of total revenue. The company has established platforms for about 70% of automotive chip requirements, focusing on power chips and sensors [12][16]. - The high-end consumer sector is also significant, with projected revenue of 1.92 billion yuan in 2024, a 66% increase year-on-year, also making up 50% of total revenue [12]. - The SiC foundry business has achieved revenue of 1.016 billion yuan, establishing itself as the largest foundry platform in China [12]. Market Opportunities - The report highlights the growing demand for smart driving technologies, with major automotive companies announcing plans to popularize intelligent driving features in their vehicles by 2025. This trend is expected to enhance the penetration rate of new energy vehicles and drive sales growth [15]. - The company's sensor foundry and high-voltage industrial platforms are positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for energy and sensor modules in drones and robotics, indicating a positive long-term outlook for downstream demand [15].

Group 1: Core Insights - The report highlights that Tesla is preparing software updates for Chinese customers to provide features similar to the "Full Self-Driving" (FSD) available in the U.S., which will enhance driving assistance capabilities in urban areas [3] - The report notes that the proliferation of intelligent driving features is expected to positively impact the penetration rate of new energy vehicles and sales growth in 2025, presenting investment opportunities in downstream smart hardware [3] Group 2: Company Analysis - Jinbo Biological - Jinbo Biological reported a remarkable revenue of 1.447 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 85.4%, with a net profit of 733 million yuan, up 144.65% [6] - The company’s main business revolves around recombinant collagen, with medical devices being the core segment, generating over 500 million yuan in revenue in the first half of 2024, accounting for nearly 90% of total revenue and achieving a gross margin of 94% [6] - Jinbo Biological holds the only approved recombinant collagen product for facial wrinkle injection in China, with its product "Wei Yimei" entering over 2,000 medical institutions and achieving a cumulative injection volume exceeding 1 million units by the end of 2024 [6][7] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The recombinant collagen market is becoming increasingly competitive, with several companies entering the field, including the first raw material supplier, Chuangjian Medical, which is pushing for the approval of its recombinant collagen implant [7] - Despite the competition, Jinbo Biological maintains a strong market position due to its unique injectable recombinant type III collagen medical device, making it a typical "small but beautiful" company with a robust competitive barrier [7]

Macroeconomic Overview - The US February Markit Services PMI preliminary value is 49.7, the lowest since January 2023, while the Manufacturing PMI is 51.6, the highest since June 2024. The Composite PMI is 50.4, the lowest since September 2023 [3] - The University of Michigan's Consumer Confidence Index for February is 64.7%, the lowest since December 2023, with expectations at 67.8% and a previous value of 71.7% [3] - The one-year inflation expectation is 4.3%, the highest since December 2023, while the five-year expectation is 3.5%, the highest since 2001 [3] - January existing home sales decreased by 4.9% month-on-month, the lowest since December 2022 [3] Robotics and Advanced Manufacturing - Shenzhen plans to release policies supporting humanoid robots, with a budget of 4.5 billion yuan for AI and robotics initiatives in 2025 [7] - Companies like Xiaomi, XPeng, and NIO are advancing in robotics, with Xiaomi's CyberOne and XPeng's Iron showcasing significant capabilities [7] - The global automotive industry sees 18 companies entering the humanoid robot sector, indicating a growing trend [7] Consumer Sector - ShenZhou TaiYue's 2024 preliminary earnings report shows an 8% revenue increase and a 39% growth in net profit, indicating strong market competitiveness [11] - The mobile game segment, particularly strategy games, contributes over 75% of total revenue, with significant overseas market success [11] - New game launches expected by the end of 2024 could drive further revenue growth, supported by stable cash flow from existing games [11][12] - The ICT operations and maintenance segment is also a key growth area, leveraging AI for enhanced service delivery and efficiency [12]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended," indicating a favorable outlook for the industry fundamentals, with expectations that the industry index will outperform the benchmark index [21]. Core Insights - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) has issued a draft regulation to strengthen the management of rare earth supply, which is expected to enhance the control over rare earth prices by improving supply-side management [4][5]. - The trading price of rare earth carbonate (ROE42~42.5% content) has significantly decreased from a peak of 90,000 yuan/ton in 2021 to 29,400 yuan/ton in February 2024, reflecting a 67% decline [6][8]. - Following the implementation of the old-for-new policy, the monthly sales of new energy passenger vehicles have shown a year-on-year increase of over 40% since July 2024, leading to a recovery in rare earth demand and prices [10][14]. - The price of rare earth carbonate has risen from 29,000 yuan/ton to 35,000 yuan/ton since July 2024, marking a 20% increase and approaching the 2024 peak [10][12]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Regulatory Changes - The MIIT has proposed a draft regulation that emphasizes the establishment of large state-backed rare earth enterprises, reinforcing the leading position of Chinese rare earth companies [4][5]. - The draft includes a dynamic adjustment mechanism for annual control indicators for rare earth mining and separation, favoring companies with better resource endowments and environmental standards [7]. Section 2: Supply and Price Trends - The government has significantly reduced the growth rate of rare earth supply indicators, with a projected increase of only 8.5% for 2024, down from 15.8% in 2023 and 24.7% in 2022 [8][9]. - The intention behind these policies is to stabilize rare earth prices amid a backdrop of declining prices due to oversupply in the global market [6][8]. Section 3: Demand Recovery - The demand for rare earths is expected to continue rising due to the ongoing growth in new energy vehicle sales, supported by government incentives and technological advancements in the automotive sector [10][14]. - The long-term outlook for rare earth demand remains positive, driven by trends in electric vehicles, robotics, and the transition to an all-electric society in China [10][14].

Group 1: Automotive Industry - The retail market size for narrow passenger cars in February 2025 is estimated to be around 1.25 million units, representing a year-on-year growth of 13.6%. Among these, new energy vehicle (NEV) retail is expected to reach 600,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 54.6%, with NEV penetration rate rising to approximately 48% [3] - Cumulative retail sales of passenger cars from January to February total 3.044 million units, showing a year-on-year decline of 3%. NEV sales during this period reached 1.344 million units, marking a year-on-year growth of 26.6% [3] - The overall growth rate of NEV sales in the first two months is lower than the 40.9% year-on-year growth rate for the entire year of 2024, but the slowdown is not significant. The expectation for the entire year is a continued growth rate of around 25% to 30% for NEVs [3] Group 2: Semiconductor Industry - Analog Devices, the third-largest analog chip manufacturer globally, has reported a recovery in its business, with a decrease in channel inventory and a gradual increase in orders. The company expects to have a revenue of $9.4 billion in 2024, down 23% year-on-year, but the decline in revenue for the fourth quarter has reduced to 10.1% [3] - Texas Instruments, the largest analog chip manufacturer, also shows similar recovery signs, with a projected revenue of $12.306 billion in 2024, down 23% year-on-year, and a fourth-quarter revenue decline of 10% [3] - The recovery in the semiconductor industry is uneven across sub-industries, with CIS and HPC being the first to recover. The overall trend suggests that the analog chip sector is likely entering a recovery phase, which will positively impact domestic companies like Shengbang and Sirepu [3] Group 3: Consumer Market - The "Three-Year Action Plan to Optimize the Consumption Environment" aims to stimulate consumption and promote new industry development from 2025 to 2027. This plan broadens the focus beyond automobiles and electronics to include textiles, food, and other sectors [6][7] - In 2024, previous consumption support policies led to over 36 million consumers benefiting from subsidies, resulting in the purchase of more than 60 million units of eight major categories of home appliances, generating sales exceeding 260 billion yuan [6] - The new action plan is expected to enhance the consumption landscape across various sectors, providing significant opportunities for domestic brands to grow and compete internationally, thereby increasing their global influence [7]