证券研究报告 相关研究 交通运输 行业定期报告 投资要点： 证券分析师 孙延 S1350524050003 sunyan01@huayuanstock.com 王惠武 S1350524060001 wanghuiwu@huayuanstock.com 联系人 张付哲 S1350124070010 zhangfuzhe@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 2024 年 09 月 03 日 看好快递反内卷带动行业价格修复 看好（维持） ——2024 年 8 月 26 日-9 月 1 日交通运输行业周报 一、行业动态跟踪 ➢ 快递物流： 1）快递行业开启反内卷，有望直接带动行业价格修复上涨。7 月 30 日，政治局会议提出 "要强化行业自律，防止"内卷式"恶性竞争"；8 月 22 日，国家邮政局在上海召开规范 市场秩序、提升服务质量专题会议；8 月 23 日，浙江省邮政管理局联合快递业协会召开规 范市场秩序座谈会。在一系列政策带动下，快递行业反内卷有望从反低价竞争入手，考虑 9 月一般为快递行业淡季转旺季时点，当前行业加盟商盈利改善诉求较强，有望快速带动 国内部分价格洼地修复价格，从而改善加盟商盈利状况， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the pharmaceutical industry, indicating expectations for gradual recovery in the second half of 2024 [2][3]. Core Insights - The pharmaceutical index has shown signs of bottoming out after a significant decline of over 20% since the beginning of the year, with expectations for a gradual improvement in performance [3][35]. - The report highlights a severe internal differentiation within the pharmaceutical sector in the first half of 2024, with a total revenue of 1.26 trillion yuan, a slight decline of 0.1% year-on-year, and a net profit of 104.25 billion yuan, down 2.0% year-on-year [8][14]. - The report suggests focusing on specific segments such as innovative drugs and devices, overseas expansion, aging population-related consumption, high-barrier industries, domestic substitution, and smaller high-growth companies [36]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance - The pharmaceutical index increased by 2.02% this week, with 407 stocks rising and 83 falling. Notable performers included Lexin Medical (+68.74%) and Sairun Biological (+21.91%) [16][21]. - The report notes that the medical services, medical devices, and pharmaceutical commerce sectors performed relatively well, while traditional Chinese medicine and chemical preparations lagged behind [21]. 2. Financial Metrics - In the first half of 2024, the overall gross margin for pharmaceutical companies was 33.1%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points compared to the first half of 2023, while the net profit margin was 8.3%, down 0.2 percentage points [9][10]. - The report indicates that the second quarter of 2024 saw revenues of 619.98 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 1.1%, and a net profit of 50.2 billion yuan, down 4.5% year-on-year [8][14]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends strategic investments in innovative drugs and devices, with specific companies highlighted such as Heng Rui Medicine and Hengrui Medicine [36]. - It also suggests focusing on companies with overseas expansion capabilities, such as Mindray Medical and YL Medical, as well as those catering to the aging population [36]. - The report emphasizes the importance of high-barrier industries and domestic substitution trends, recommending companies like Renfu Pharmaceutical and Aohua Endoscopy [36].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook on its performance and growth potential [2][3]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 910 million yuan for H1 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.37%, with a net profit of 167 million yuan, up 1.62% year-on-year [2]. - The demand for amorphous materials is expected to rise due to favorable policies and high industry growth, particularly in sectors such as power distribution, photovoltaics, and new energy vehicles [2]. - The company is progressing well with its new production line for amorphous materials, expected to reach full capacity in the second half of 2024 [2]. - Continuous investment in R&D has led to a significant increase in R&D expenses, which rose by 65.61% year-on-year to 59.27 million yuan in H1 2024 [2]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 360 million yuan, 410 million yuan, and 530 million yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [3]. - The estimated price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 22x, 19x, and 15x, respectively, indicating a favorable valuation trend as the company benefits from the demand for amorphous alloys and other materials [3][4]. - Revenue is expected to grow steadily, with total revenue projected at 1.91 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting an 8.07% year-on-year growth [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [1]. Core Views - The precious metals sector is experiencing fluctuations in gold prices, with expectations of increased volatility due to upcoming U.S. employment data. The report anticipates a long-term upward trend in gold prices driven by loose monetary and fiscal policies in the U.S., alongside geopolitical tensions [1]. - The copper sector is influenced by macroeconomic expectations, with domestic downstream operations remaining high. The report notes a rebound in copper prices after a period of fluctuation, with a long-term bullish outlook due to supply constraints [1]. - The aluminum sector is seeing a slow recovery in downstream operations, with high alumina prices and expectations for demand during the peak consumption season. The report highlights the need to monitor the supply of alumina and the operational capacity of electrolytic aluminum plants [1]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - Recent U.S. economic indicators show initial jobless claims slightly below expectations, with a revised Q2 GDP growth rate of 3%, exceeding the forecast of 2.8% [6]. - The core PCE price index for July was reported at 2.6%, lower than the expected 2.7% [6]. 2. Precious Metals - Gold prices have shown slight increases, with London spot gold up 0.09% and Shanghai gold up 0.26%. Silver prices also saw minor increases, while palladium rose significantly by 4.03% [15][19]. 3. Industrial Metals - Copper prices increased, with London copper up 1.45% and Shanghai copper up 0.98%. The report notes a rise in copper inventories in London and a decrease in Shanghai, indicating mixed supply dynamics [21]. - Aluminum prices decreased slightly, with London aluminum down 0.94% and Shanghai aluminum down 0.43%. The report highlights a drop in aluminum processing margins [28]. - Lead and zinc prices showed mixed trends, with lead prices declining and zinc prices increasing. The report notes a slight improvement in mining profits for zinc [33]. 4. Small Metals - The report tracks price movements for various small metals, indicating a general increase in prices for several metals, including germanium and tungsten, while manganese and titanium prices have decreased [1].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" for non-ferrous metals, energy metals, and new materials [4][60]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a weak overall price trend for energy metals, with lithium carbonate prices slightly rebounding while cobalt and nickel prices remain under pressure. The report suggests focusing on companies like Tianqi Lithium, Ganfeng Lithium, and others in the sector [5][17][22]. - The new materials sector, particularly soft magnetic and copper alloy materials, is expected to benefit from trends in the electronics and power industries, with recommendations for companies such as Wolong Nuclear Materials and Platinum New Materials [5][44]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The report discusses significant developments in the industry, including the launch of a solid-state battery by Penghui Energy with an energy density of 280Wh/kg, expected to be mass-produced by 2026 [10]. - Ganfeng Lithium reported a net loss of 760 million yuan in the first half of 2024, with a revenue decline of 47.16% year-on-year due to falling lithium prices [10]. 2. Energy Metals - Lithium prices show mixed trends: lithium carbonate increased by 0.47% to 74,600 yuan/ton, while hydroxide decreased by 1.64% to 71,850 yuan/ton. The overall market is expected to remain weak [5][17]. - Cobalt prices are under pressure, with domestic cobalt prices dropping to 152,000 yuan/ton and overseas prices stable at 11.25 USD/pound [5][22]. - Nickel and manganese prices remain stable, with sulfuric manganese at 0.61 million yuan/ton and sulfuric nickel at 2.78 million yuan/ton [30]. - Rare earth permanent magnet prices show some fluctuations, with praseodymium-neodymium oxide increasing by 3.82% to 408,000 yuan/ton [33]. 3. New Materials - The report emphasizes the positive outlook for soft magnetic and copper alloy materials, driven by demand in the electronics and power sectors [5][44]. - Key price movements include phosphoric acid at 1.04 million yuan/ton and lithium iron phosphate at 3.40 million yuan/ton, with various other new material prices showing stability or slight declines [41][49].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Shenzhen International (0152.HK) [2][3] Core Views - The company's 2024 interim performance met expectations, with total revenue of HKD 6.61 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 4.5%. Excluding construction service revenue from toll roads, revenue was HKD 6.30 billion, down 3% year-on-year. Shareholder profit reached HKD 653 million, a significant increase of 609.1% year-on-year, slightly above the previous earnings forecast range of HKD 550-650 million [2] - The logistics business confirmed substantial growth in REITs issuance revenue, awaiting the rollout of transformation projects. The logistics park business generated revenue of HKD 750 million, down 1% year-on-year, with shareholder profit of HKD 562 million, up 44% year-on-year. The successful issuance of public REITs in H1 2024 recorded a post-tax income of approximately HKD 587 million. The company is adjusting its investment strategy to focus on core assets in the Greater Bay Area, with 14 projects currently, 7 of which are operational or under management. As construction projects come online, logistics operating income is expected to continue growing [2][3] - The toll road and environmental protection businesses faced short-term pressure due to extreme weather and impairment provisions. Toll road revenue was HKD 3.75 billion, down 10% year-on-year, with net profit of HKD 1.065 billion, down 14% year-on-year. The decline was attributed to adverse weather conditions and increased free periods for small passenger vehicles during holidays. The environmental protection business generated revenue of HKD 790 million, down 7% year-on-year, with a net loss of HKD 157 million, primarily due to decreased wind power revenue and increased asset impairment [2][3] Financial Performance and Forecast - The company is optimizing its debt structure, achieving improved financial costs. As of June 30, 2024, the ratio of RMB to foreign currency loans was 83% to 17%, down from 73% to 27% in the same period of 2023. Net exchange losses were approximately HKD 26 million, a reduction of about HKD 584 million year-on-year [3] - The report maintains previous profit forecasts, expecting net profits attributable to shareholders of HKD 3.08 billion, HKD 4.02 billion, and HKD 4.25 billion for 2024-2026, corresponding to P/E ratios of 4.7x, 3.6x, and 3.4x respectively. With a projected 50% dividend payout ratio, the dividend yield is estimated at approximately 10.7%, 14.0%, and 14.8% for the respective years [3][4]

Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [3] Core Views - The company's performance was below expectations due to a decline in gross margin, a drop in investment income, and an increase in R&D expenses [3] - The power equipment sector continues to grow, but the trade sector has contracted significantly [3] - Newly effective orders have grown significantly, indicating potential for future revenue growth, especially in coal power and hydropower [4] - The company's profitability is expected to continue growing under the dual carbon targets, with coal power, gas power, nuclear power, and pumped storage all contributing to performance [4] Financial Performance - H1 2024 revenue: 33.457 billion yuan, up 11.84% YoY [3] - H1 2024 net profit: 1.691 billion yuan, down 15.52% YoY [3] - Q2 2024 revenue: 18.404 billion yuan, up 21.09% YoY [3] - Q2 2024 net profit: 786 million yuan, down 20.04% YoY [3] - H1 2024 gross margin: down 2.07pct YoY [3] - H1 2024 R&D expense ratio: 4.06%, up 0.36pct YoY [3] Sector Performance - Wind power revenue: 6.66 billion yuan, up 19.14% YoY [3] - Hydropower revenue: 1.296 billion yuan, up 21.48% YoY [3] - Nuclear power revenue: 1.936 billion yuan, up 60.43% YoY [3] - Gas turbine revenue: 3.607 billion yuan, up 154.17% YoY [3] - Coal power revenue: 8.522 billion yuan, up 15.99% YoY [3] - Trade sector revenue: 1.767 billion yuan, down 61.31% YoY [3] Order Growth - Newly effective orders Jan-Jun 2024: 56.073 billion yuan, up 14.8% YoY [4] - Newly effective orders Jan-Jul 2024: 62.783 billion yuan, up 19.2% YoY [4] - Coal power order growth: over 28% Jan-Jun, over 37% Jan-Jul [4] - Hydropower order growth: over 70% Jan-Jun, over 102% Jan-Jul [4] Valuation and Forecast - 2024-2026 net profit forecast adjusted to 3.62, 4.88, and 5.45 billion yuan [4] - 2024-2026 PE ratios: 11x, 8x, and 7x [4] - 2024-2026 revenue growth forecast: 10.02%, 9.17%, and 4.97% [6] - 2024-2026 net profit growth forecast: 1.87%, 34.85%, and 11.74% [6] Key Financial Metrics - Closing price: 13.56 yuan [5] - Market cap: 40.429 billion yuan [5] - Total assets: 131.57 billion yuan [5] - Debt-to-asset ratio: 68.49% [5] - Net assets: 41.461 billion yuan [5] - PB ratio: 1.14 [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook on its performance [3]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 2.923 billion RMB for the first half of 2024, a year-on-year decline of 9.65%, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 5.21% to 190 million RMB [3]. - The decline in revenue is primarily attributed to a decrease in upstream gas prices and the linkage of downstream selling prices, which affects the revenue recognition model [3]. - The company's gas transmission volume reached 2.317 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 25.86%, indicating growth in its core pipeline business despite short-term pressures from price adjustments [3]. - The natural gas consumption in Anhui province has shown significant growth, with a record high of 5.65 billion cubic meters in the first half of 2024, up 24.7% year-on-year, which supports the company's long-term growth prospects [3]. - The urban gas business has seen a substantial increase in gross margin, reaching 11.80%, up 6.19 percentage points year-on-year, contributing positively to overall performance [3]. - The company forecasts net profits of 370 million, 437 million, and 501 million RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 11, 9, and 8 times [3]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The company experienced a revenue decline of 3.12 billion RMB in the first half of 2024, mainly due to lower upstream gas prices impacting the long-distance pipeline business [3]. - Gross profit for the core pipeline business was 255 million RMB, a slight decrease of 2.69%, while the urban gas business saw a significant increase in gross profit of 93 million RMB, up 115.74% [3]. Market Performance - The company's gas transmission volume growth and improved gross margin in urban gas business indicate resilience and potential for future growth despite current challenges [3]. - The report highlights that the pricing mechanism for gas transmission is reviewed every three years, suggesting that the company may benefit from increased scale in the long run [3]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain a stable growth trajectory in the medium to long term, supported by the increasing natural gas consumption in Anhui province and the expansion of its urban gas business [3]. - The projected dividend yield for the next three years is estimated at 4.04%, 4.77%, and 5.47%, reflecting a favorable return for investors [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for Shanghai Port Bay (605598) [5] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 631 million yuan for the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 11.34%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 30.43% to 73.81 million yuan [5] - The significant growth in overseas business, particularly in Southeast Asia and the Middle East, contributed to the revenue, with overseas income reaching 568 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 59.84%, accounting for 90.15% of total revenue [6] - New signed orders reached a historical high of 1.187 billion yuan, indicating strong future performance potential [7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company achieved a total revenue of 631 million yuan in H1 2024, with a net profit of 73.81 million yuan, reflecting a decline in profitability due to share-based payment expenses [5] - The gross margin for H1 was 36.43%, slightly up from the previous year, while the second quarter saw a decline in gross margin to 35.67% [6] Business Segments - The overseas business saw substantial growth, with Southeast Asia and the Middle East contributing significantly to revenue, with respective increases of 77.92% and 15.75% [6] - Domestic revenue, however, fell by 71.42% to 6 million yuan, indicating challenges in the local market [6] Order Book and Future Outlook - The company secured new orders worth 1.187 billion yuan in H1 2024, a 78.21% increase year-on-year, with overseas orders making up a significant portion [7] - The report anticipates continued growth in new orders, particularly from overseas markets and key domestic projects [7] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecasts for 2024-2026 are set at 233 million yuan, 327 million yuan, and 447 million yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 18, 13, and 9 times based on the stock price as of August 30 [7][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for BYD Electronics (0285.HK) [2] Core Views - The company's performance in the first half of 2024 was slightly below expectations, with revenue of 78.58 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 39.9%, and a net profit of 1.52 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of only 0.14% [2] - The decline in overall gross margin is attributed to changes in product structure and a decrease in revenue from high-margin new smart products [2][3] - The consumer electronics and automotive electronics segments are experiencing rapid growth, benefiting from the recovery in the consumer electronics market and increased sales of BYD vehicles [3] - The new smart products segment is facing challenges due to a decline in household storage revenue, but there is potential for growth in AI server products [3][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For H1 2024, the company reported total revenue of 78.58 billion RMB, with a gross profit of 5.38 billion RMB and a net profit of 1.52 billion RMB [2] - The overall sales gross margin decreased by 1 percentage point to 6.85% [2] - The second quarter of 2024 saw revenue of 42.1 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 41.3% [2] Business Segments - The consumer electronics business grew by 54.22% to 63.30 billion RMB, with component revenue from Jabil's consolidation increasing by 205.8% [3] - The automotive electronics segment reported a revenue increase of 26.48% to 7.76 billion RMB, driven by the growth in new energy vehicle sales [3] Future Outlook - The company is focusing on AI server products and has formed partnerships to enhance its offerings in this area [3][4] - The forecast for net profit for 2024, 2025, and 2026 has been slightly adjusted to 45.07 billion RMB, 58.1 billion RMB, and 72.25 billion RMB respectively [4]