Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for investment [5][8]. Core Insights - The company, Jinhua New Materials, is positioned as a leading player in the fine chemical sector, focusing on oxime series products, with significant growth potential in the semiconductor market through its hydroxylamine solution [5][11]. - The company has established a robust production chain for oxime-based products, including silane crosslinking agents and hydroxylamine salts, which are expected to drive revenue growth [7][11]. - The report highlights the company's strong financial performance, with projected revenues and net profits showing significant growth from 2023 to 2027 [6][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - Jinhua New Materials has been dedicated to the research, production, and sales of oxime series fine chemicals since its establishment in 2007, achieving a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 28% in revenue from 2018 to 2024 [16][22]. - The company has received multiple accolades, including recognition as a national-level specialized and innovative "little giant" enterprise [16]. 2. Business Operations - The company focuses on silane crosslinking agents and hydroxylamine salts, which are expected to see steady sales growth due to increasing market demand [22][29]. - The production capacity for silane crosslinking agents is projected to reach 58,300 tons per year by 2024, with a market share of 38.16% in China [7][11]. 3. Financial Analysis - The company anticipates revenues of approximately 1.24 billion RMB and a net profit exceeding 210 million RMB in 2024, reflecting a strong financial outlook [6][8]. - The report forecasts a net profit of 357 million RMB by 2027, with a corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio decreasing from 39 in 2025 to 22 in 2027 [6][8]. 4. Market Potential - The hydroxylamine solution is identified as a key product for entering the semiconductor chemicals market, with a projected global market growth from 206 million USD in 2023 to 378 million USD by 2030 [7][11]. - The company is also expanding its production capabilities for high-end coupling agents, which are expected to enhance its market position in functional silanes [7][11]. 5. Competitive Landscape - The company has established strong partnerships with major clients, including Bayer and Brenntag, which enhances its market competitiveness [46][47]. - The report notes that the company has overcome technical barriers in the hydroxylamine solution production, positioning it well against competitors like BASF [7][11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The report highlights that the reduction in shareholding by major shareholders has been completed, which is expected to contribute to the creation of a high-end luxury beauty ecosystem [5] - The company has signed a strategic cooperation framework agreement with L Catterton Asia Advisors to assist in global market expansion, acquisitions, and strategic investments [8] - The company's strong sales performance in both online and offline channels supports the positive outlook for its future profitability [8] Financial Performance and Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 2,885.96 million RMB - 2024: 3,884.69 million RMB (growth of 34.61%) - 2025: 5,153.06 million RMB (growth of 32.65%) - 2026: 6,608.46 million RMB (growth of 28.24%) - 2027: 8,340.36 million RMB (growth of 26.21%) [7] - Net profit forecasts are: - 2023: 661.9 million RMB - 2024: 880.6 million RMB (growth of 33.0%) - 2025: 1,212.7 million RMB (growth of 37.7%) - 2026: 1,580.4 million RMB (growth of 30.3%) - 2027: 2,030.8 million RMB (growth of 28.5%) [7] - Earnings per share (EPS) estimates are: - 2023: 3.31 RMB - 2024: 2.18 RMB - 2025: 2.47 RMB - 2026: 3.22 RMB - 2027: 4.14 RMB [7] Strategic Developments - The company plans to utilize the proceeds from the share reduction for investments in the beauty-related industry and personal improvements [8] - The collaboration with L Catterton aims to leverage their global investment network to enhance the company's brand presence in high-end retail channels [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company's first equity incentive plan has been implemented, indicating confidence in its medium to long-term development [5][7] - The industry is showing signs of recovery after hitting a low point, with the company benefiting from structural advantages in its product offerings [7] - The company is entering the high-end electronic fabric market, which is expected to provide significant growth opportunities due to increasing demand [7] Financial Summary - The company's projected revenue for 2023 is 14,876 million RMB, with a year-on-year decline of 26.33%. Revenue is expected to grow to 15,856 million RMB in 2024, representing a 6.59% increase, and further to 18,489 million RMB in 2025, a 16.61% increase [6] - The projected net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 is 3,044 million RMB, with a significant decline of 53.94%. This is expected to recover to 2,445 million RMB in 2024, a decrease of 19.70%, and then grow to 3,321 million RMB in 2025, an increase of 35.84% [6] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 0.76 RMB in 2023, decreasing to 0.61 RMB in 2024, and then increasing to 0.83 RMB in 2025 and 0.97 RMB in 2026 [6] Market Performance - The company is the largest producer in the electronic fabric sector, benefiting from strong demand in the copper-clad laminate market, leading to both volume and price increases [7] - The company aims for a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of net profit of at least 38.5% from 2024 to 2026, with projected net profits of 4,851 million RMB, 5,180 million RMB, and 5,603 million RMB for 2026 to 2028 respectively [7]

Group 1 - The report highlights the significant underperformance of long-term bonds in December 2025, attributed to systematic reductions in holdings by brokerages, funds, and pension funds, which collectively sold 250.2 billion long-term bonds from November 20 to December 31, 2025 [1] - The report identifies three main factors suppressing long-term bonds in the second half of 2025: high expectations for the stock market leading to large sell-offs of long-term bonds, the central bank's delay in lowering policy interest rates resulting in limited bond purchases, and expectations of punitive redemption fees causing a decline in the scale of actively managed pure bond funds [1] - The supply of long-term bonds, particularly ultra-long bonds, has increased significantly since 2018, with net issuance of government bonds rising from 4.77 trillion in 2018 to 13.85 trillion in 2025, an increase of 2.56 trillion from the previous year [1][2] Group 2 - The report suggests that the demand for ultra-long bonds primarily comes from life insurance companies, which have increased their stock investment ratios since 2025, potentially reducing future demand for ultra-long bonds [1] - It is recommended that measures be taken to address the supply-demand imbalance in ultra-long bonds, including controlling the issuance duration of government bonds and encouraging insurance funds to increase their allocation to ultra-long bonds [1] - The report notes that the current yield on 30-year government bonds is over 40 basis points higher than the low point in 2025, raising the cost of issuing long-term bonds and increasing fiscal interest payment pressure [1][2] Group 3 - The report indicates that the conditions for further reductions in policy interest rates may now be in place, as the central bank has maintained a stable policy rate while the U.S. Federal Reserve has cut rates by a total of 75 basis points in the second half of 2025 [1][2] - The new regulations on public fund sales, effective December 2025, are expected to stabilize the scale of bond funds by significantly reducing redemption fees and sales service fees, which lowers the cost of investing in bond funds [2] - The report emphasizes the potential for a rebound in long-term bonds, suggesting that the current high yields present a compelling investment opportunity, particularly for 3-5 year capital bonds to capture coupon income [2]

Group 1: North Exchange Market Insights - In 2025, a total of 26 companies completed their IPOs on the North Exchange, raising 7.5 billion yuan, significantly surpassing 2024's fundraising [2][7] - The average first-day increase for IPOs in 2025 reached 368%, a notable rise from 2024, with December's new listings averaging a 463% increase [2][7] - The average online subscription funds in 2025 reached 662.4 billion yuan, with December hitting a record high of 781.2 billion yuan, indicating heightened interest in new listings [2][8] Group 2: Consumer Services Sector Analysis - The consumer services sector on the North Exchange saw a median market cap increase of 30.92% in 2025, with several companies experiencing over 50% and 100% increases [11] - The sector includes various industries such as food and beverage, cultural IP, pet food, cosmetics, and agriculture, indicating a diverse investment landscape [11] - The average price-to-earnings ratio (PETTM) for consumer services companies was 46.3x, suggesting relatively low valuations and potential investment opportunities in 2026 [11] Group 3: Real Estate Market Overview - The real estate sector experienced a decline of 0.7% in the week ending January 6, 2026, with significant fluctuations in individual stock performances [15][17] - New housing transactions in 42 key cities totaled 256 million square meters, reflecting a 2.0% decrease week-on-week, while year-to-date transactions showed an 18.1% decline [16][17] - The government emphasized the importance of the real estate market for economic stability, with new policies aimed at improving market expectations and housing quality [17][18] Group 4: Shenzhen International Company Insights - Shenzhen International's logistics park transformation project is progressing, with expected incremental revenue from land use rights and a stable dividend policy [19][20] - The company has maintained a dividend payout ratio of around 50% from 2017 to 2024, with projected dividend yields of approximately 8.7% for 2025-2027 [21][22] - The anticipated net profits for Shenzhen International from 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 3.64 billion, 3.65 billion, and 2.8 billion HKD, respectively, indicating a strong financial outlook [22]

证券研究报告|北交所专题报告 2026年1月6日 2025年新股首日涨幅均值368%，千万级账户2025年收益率预计3.4% —北交所新股月度巡礼（2025年12月） 证券分析师 姓名：赵昊 资格编号：S1350524110004 邮箱：zhaohao@huayuanstock.com 联系人 姓名：胡文瀚 邮箱：huwenhan@huayuanstock.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 核心要点：2025年新股首日收益率368%，预期顶格收益达48万元 n 发行情况：2025年共计26家公司完成上市，募资75亿元，全年募资显著超越2024年；12月有3家公司上市，募资额7.8 亿元，2025Q4则整体上市11家（募资24亿元），北交所IPO节奏维持加速态势，预计后续IPO或延续该节奏。 n 公司质量：2025年北交所新上市公司的2024年营收平均为7.8亿元，归母净利润平均为1.0亿元，毛利率达34%，财务数 据相比2023-2024年新上市公司显著提升。 n 首日涨幅：2025年北交所IPO首日平均涨幅达到368%，较2024年显著提升。12月3家新上市公司，首日平均涨幅达463%； ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the consumer service industry on the Beijing Stock Exchange, highlighting investment opportunities driven by policy support and emerging consumption trends [1][22]. Core Insights - The consumer market in China has shown signs of recovery, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) reaching a year-high growth of 0.7% in November 2025, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) has shown marginal improvement [2][5]. - The report identifies several consumption hotspots, including policy-driven consumption, emotional economy, health consumption, silver economy, national trend economy, and experience economy [2][12]. - The median market capitalization growth for 41 consumer service companies on the Beijing Stock Exchange was +30.92% in 2025, with 36 companies (88%) experiencing an increase [13][15]. - The median Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio for consumer service companies was reported at 46.3x, indicating relatively low valuations and potential investment opportunities in 2026 [19][22]. Summary by Sections Domestic Consumption Market Trends - In 2025, the CPI showed a gradual recovery, with November's growth at 0.7%, marking the highest point of the year [5]. - The retail sales growth varied across categories, with strong performance in communication equipment, home appliances, and furniture, while traditional consumer goods like tobacco, clothing, and beverages lagged [6][8]. Market Performance - The median market capitalization change for consumer service stocks was -2.39% in the last week of December 2025, with notable performers including Thunder God Technology (+10.10%) and Vision Intelligence (+3.14%) [12][15]. - The overall market capitalization for consumer service companies decreased from 115.18 billion to 109.71 billion yuan, with a median market cap drop from 1.906 billion to 1.873 billion yuan [12][15]. Valuation Metrics - The median PE ratio for the broader consumer industry was reported at 49.3x, reflecting a slight decrease from previous periods [19][22]. - Specific sectors such as food and beverage, and agriculture showed median PE ratios of 49.5x, indicating stable valuations despite market fluctuations [19][22]. Company Highlights - Key companies in the consumer service sector include Gai Shi Food, Oufu Egg Industry, and Biowave, with significant market capitalization growth and diverse product offerings [22][26]. - The report emphasizes the potential of companies in the pet food, cosmetics, and agricultural sectors, with a robust pipeline of companies poised for listing on the Beijing Stock Exchange [22][27].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The report emphasizes the importance of stabilizing real estate market expectations and highlights the sector's significant role in the national economy and as a source of household wealth [3][50] - The report suggests that the real estate market's healthy development is crucial for overall economic stability and calls for decisive policy measures rather than piecemeal approaches [50] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.1%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.6%, and the real estate sector (Shenwan) declined by 0.7% during the week [5][8] - Notable stock performances included Chengjian Development (+13.2%) and Sanzhong Impression (+10.7%), while Hualian Holdings (-15.5%) and Yatong Shares (-6.8%) saw significant declines [5][8] Data Tracking New Housing Transactions - In the week of December 27 to January 2, new housing transactions in 42 key cities totaled 2.56 million square meters, a 2.0% decrease from the previous week [16] - For December, new housing transactions reached 10.63 million square meters, a 35.7% increase month-on-month but a 40.5% decrease year-on-year [21] Second-Hand Housing Transactions - In the same week, second-hand housing transactions in 21 key cities totaled 1.64 million square meters, a 21.5% decrease from the previous week [34] - For December, second-hand housing transactions amounted to 9.22 million square meters, an 11.1% increase month-on-month but a 27.9% decrease year-on-year [37] Industry News - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development aims for significant progress in housing quality improvement by 2030, focusing on standards, design, materials, and construction [50] - New tax policies were introduced, reducing the value-added tax rate for second-hand housing transactions to 3% for properties held for less than two years, while properties held for two years or more are exempt from VAT [50] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission announced the launch of a pilot program for commercial real estate investment trusts (REITs) to promote high-quality market development [50] Company Announcements - China Resources Land secured a sustainable development-linked loan of 2 billion yuan with a term of 36 months [54] - Huafa Group elected Guo Lingyong as the chairman of its board and Liu Yingzhe as vice chairman [54]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The transformation and upgrade projects are continuously being realized, highlighting the value of high dividends [5] - The company has a stable dividend policy, with a payout ratio increasing from around 40% (2013-2016) to approximately 50% (2017-2024), with total dividends of 11.8 billion HKD during 2018-2024 [7] - The company is expected to see profit growth from its logistics park transformation projects, with projected net profits of 36.4 billion, 36.5 billion, and 28.0 billion HKD for 2025-2027, corresponding to P/E ratios of 5.8, 5.8, and 7.5 respectively [7] Financial Performance - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 20,523.8 million HKD in 2023, decreasing to 15,570.6 million HKD in 2024, and then gradually increasing to 17,250.2 million HKD by 2027, with a CAGR of 5.2% from 2026 to 2027 [6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 1,901.6 million HKD in 2023, increasing to 3,637.9 million HKD in 2025, before declining to 2,795.9 million HKD in 2027 [6] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 0.80 HKD in 2023, reaching 1.49 HKD in 2025, and then slightly decreasing to 1.14 HKD in 2027 [6] Market Data - The closing price of the company's stock is 8.60 HKD, with a market capitalization of 21,016.13 million HKD [3] - The company's asset-liability ratio stands at 58.62% [3]

Fixed Income - Long-term yields are rising, with credit spreads mostly narrowing slightly, indicating a mixed market response to different credit ratings and sectors [1][5][6] - For 2026, a differentiated allocation strategy is recommended for various credit types, suggesting short-duration municipal bonds as a base and focusing on high-quality entities for longer durations to enhance returns [7] - Predictions for December 2025 indicate new loans of 700 billion yuan and social financing growth of 1.8 trillion yuan, with a weak credit demand expected to continue into 2026 [10][12] North Exchange - The electric vehicle wave is driving upgrades in the automotive supply chain, with a projected 70% growth in total market capitalization for automotive stocks on the North Exchange in 2025 [15][16] - Key trends to watch in 2026 include the localization of core robot components, breakthroughs in battery technology, and advancements in smart driving systems [16][18] - The automotive sector's price-to-earnings ratio increased from 30.6X to 31.9X, reflecting a growing market interest [18] New Consumption - The New Year's Day holiday saw significant consumer activity, with a total of 5.9 billion people expected to travel, marking a 19.5% increase year-on-year [21][22] - Douyin's beauty segment is projected to exceed 230 billion yuan in gross merchandise value for 2025, indicating strong growth in the beauty market [24][25] - Emerging consumer trends highlight a shift towards high-quality domestic brands in beauty and jewelry, with specific recommendations for brands that resonate with younger consumers [25] Transportation - The aviation sector experienced a notable increase in passenger volume during the New Year holiday, with a 13% year-on-year growth in civil aviation passenger numbers [27][29] - Geopolitical events, such as U.S. actions in Venezuela, may positively impact oil transportation markets, with potential increases in shipping demand [31] - The logistics sector is seeing a shift towards quality development, with regulatory changes aimed at reducing competition pressures and improving profitability [36]