Investment Rating - The investment rating for Sichuan Chengyu (601107.SH) is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company plans to acquire 85% of the equity of Jingyi Expressway for cash of 2.409 billion yuan, which is expected to enhance the dividend yield starting in 2026 [7] - The acquisition is anticipated to solidify the company's revenue stream, as Jingyi Expressway has shown stable profitability with a projected net profit of approximately 1.92 billion yuan in 2024 and 1.49 billion yuan in the first seven months of 2025 [7] - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 1.613 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 10.58%, and a projected dividend yield of around 5.1% in 2025, increasing to 6.2% in 2026 and 6.9% in 2027 [7] Financial Summary - The company's total revenue is projected to be 11.220 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.28% [6] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 1.613 billion yuan in 2025, with a corresponding earnings per share (EPS) of 0.53 yuan [6] - The company's return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to be 8.47% in 2025, increasing to 9.90% in 2026 [6][8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The express delivery industry shows resilient demand, with a "de-involution" trend driving up prices and releasing profit elasticity for companies. This creates a favorable competitive environment for the e-commerce express delivery sector in the medium to long term. Companies like SF Express and JD Logistics are expected to benefit from cyclical recovery and ongoing cost reductions, with potential for both performance and valuation increases [16][17] - In the shipping sector, the outlook for crude oil transportation is positive due to the OPEC+ production increase cycle and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts. The geopolitical uncertainties in the Middle East may enhance VLCC freight rate elasticity. The market for oil transportation is expected to improve significantly in Q4 2025, with recommendations to focus on companies like China Merchants Energy and COSCO Shipping Energy [17] - The shipping market is anticipated to recover, driven by environmental regulations limiting the operation of older fleets and the upcoming production of the West Manganese iron ore mine by the end of 2025. This is expected to catalyze global demand for bulk commodities [17] - The aviation sector is expected to see Q3 performance as a signal for a long-term market upturn, with stable demand growth and a tightening supply situation [17] Summary by Sections Express Delivery - In November 2025, the express delivery business volume reached 18.06 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 5.0%. The total revenue was 137.65 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.7%. The growth rates of major companies varied, with YTO Express and Shentong Express showing significant increases in business volume [4][31] - The "de-involution" trend in the express delivery industry has led to improved pricing, strengthening profit recovery expectations for the fourth quarter [4][16] Shipping and Ports - The BDTI index for crude oil transportation increased by 1.13% to 1399 points, while the BCTI index for refined oil transportation rose by 1.0% to 755 points. The BDI index for bulk shipping decreased by 11.9% to 2147 points [12][47] - The shipping market is expected to benefit from a recovery in demand and the green transition in shipbuilding, with recommendations to focus on companies like China Shipbuilding and China State Shipbuilding [17] Aviation - In November 2025, civil aviation transported approximately 60 million passengers, a year-on-year increase of 6.6%, and cargo and mail transport reached 930,200 tons, a year-on-year increase of 10.9% [58] - The overall passenger load factor for major airlines was 85.57%, indicating a stable demand environment [64] Logistics and Supply Chain - The logistics sector is experiencing a positive transformation, with companies like Shenzhen International expected to benefit from upgrades in logistics parks and improved profitability [17] - The chemical logistics market is also showing potential for growth, with significant opportunities for leading companies like Milky Way and Xingtong [17] Ports - The total cargo throughput at Chinese ports for the week of December 8-14, 2025, was 262.48 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1.16%, while container throughput was 6.59 million TEU, also down by 0.89% [79]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the construction materials industry is "Positive" (maintained) [3] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the upcoming opportunities related to the "fireworks" and "IPO" sectors as the Chinese New Year approaches, with recent policy changes allowing limited fireworks usage in certain regions, which may drive market interest [4] - The report emphasizes the potential of Shangfeng Cement, which is transitioning from financial investment to active participation in the semiconductor industry, having invested over 1.9 billion yuan in 28 quality projects across the semiconductor supply chain [4] - The report suggests that 2025 will be a turning point for listed companies, with 2026 expected to be an industry inflection point, indicating that the market is currently in a phase of adjustment [4] Section Summaries 1. Sector Tracking - The construction materials index rose by 0.6% while the overall market indices showed mixed results, with the Shanghai Composite Index unchanged and the Shenzhen Component Index down by 0.9% [8] - Notable stock performances included Lawson (+31.8%) and Zaiseng Technology (+23.3%), while Hainan Ruize (-15.5%) and Jingxue Energy (-15.0%) faced significant declines [8] 2. Data Tracking 2.1 Cement - The average price of 42.5 cement nationwide is 354.0 yuan/ton, down 0.8 yuan/ton month-on-month and down 66.5 yuan/ton year-on-year [14] - The cement inventory ratio is 62.3%, down 2.5 percentage points month-on-month and down 0.3 percentage points year-on-year [14] - The cement shipment rate is 42.7%, down 1.7 percentage points month-on-month and down 2.2 percentage points year-on-year [14] 2.2 Float Glass - The average price of 5mm float glass is 1206.1 yuan/ton, down 12.9 yuan/ton month-on-month and down 330.3 yuan/ton year-on-year [33] - The total inventory of key production enterprises in 13 provinces is 55.42 million heavy boxes, down 2.3% month-on-month and up 29.2% year-on-year [33] 2.3 Photovoltaic Glass - The average price for 2.0mm coated photovoltaic glass is 11.5 yuan/square meter, down 0.3 yuan/square meter month-on-month and year-on-year [38] - The total number of production lines for photovoltaic glass is 402, with a daily melting capacity of 87,940 tons, unchanged month-on-month and down 7.3% year-on-year [38] 2.4 Glass Fiber - The average price of alkali-free glass fiber yarn is 4565.0 yuan/ton, unchanged month-on-month and down 115.0 yuan/ton year-on-year [44] - The average price of electronic yarn is 9350.0 yuan/ton, unchanged month-on-month and up 350.0 yuan/ton year-on-year [44] 2.5 Carbon Fiber - The average price of large tow carbon fiber is 72.5 yuan/kg, unchanged month-on-month and year-on-year, while small tow carbon fiber is priced at 95.0 yuan/kg, also unchanged [48] - The average operating rate of carbon fiber enterprises is 79.47%, unchanged month-on-month and up 26.87 percentage points year-on-year [48]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report Core View The current economy may still be under pressure, with the core contradiction of economic operation focusing on "the co - existence of the drag from the adjustment of old growth drivers and the growth of new ones." The short - term pressure on consumption and investment corresponds to the low - growth trend of fiscal revenue and expenditure. The demand side may remain under pressure, and if consumption and investment continue to be weak, it may affect the Q4 economic growth rate, which is expected to slow down compared to Q3. The real estate market is still at the bottoming stage, and residents may maintain a cautious attitude towards consumption in the short term. The fiscal operation shows the characteristics of "low revenue growth and differentiated central and local expenditures." The economic and fiscal situation aligns with the policy deployment of the 2025 Central Economic Work Conference. The economy may show a weak recovery next year, and the pressure on fiscal revenue and expenditure balance may continue [2][85]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro News - **Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure**: In the first 11 months of 2025, the national general public budget revenue was about 20.1 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 0.8%. In November, it was about 1.4 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.02%. The general public budget expenditure in November was 2.3 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 3.71%, with the decline narrowing by 6.07 pct compared to the previous month. Tax revenue in the first 11 months was about 16.5 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.8%. In November, tax revenue increased by 2.8% year - on - year, while non - tax revenue decreased by 10.8% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 22.13 pct compared to the previous month. In terms of expenditure, central expenditure increased by 4.9% year - on - year in November, while local expenditure decreased by 5.1% [10][12][16]. - **Consumption, Investment, and Foreign Trade**: In November, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 4.4 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.3%, with the growth rate dropping by 1.6 pct compared to the previous month. From January to November, fixed - asset investment decreased by 2.6% year - on - year. Infrastructure investment, manufacturing investment, and real estate development investment from January to November decreased by 1.1%, increased by 1.9%, and decreased by 15.9% respectively year - on - year. In November, the total import and export value was 3.9 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.1%. Exports were 2.3 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.7%, and imports were 1.6 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.7% [22]. - **US Economic Data**: In November, the number of new non - farm jobs in the US increased by 64,000, higher than the Dow Jones expectation of 45,000. The CPI in November increased by 2.7% year - on - year, lower than the market expectation of 3.1%. The core CPI increased by 2.6% year - on - year, the lowest level since early 2021 and also lower than the market expectation of 3% [26]. 3.2 Meso - level High - frequency Data - **Consumption**: As of December 14, the average daily retail volume of passenger car manufacturers was 67,000 vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 16.8%, and the average daily wholesale volume was 62,000 vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 22.4%. As of December 5, the total retail volume of three major household appliances was 784,000 units, a year - on - year decrease of 24.7%, and the total retail sales were 1.63 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 46.1%. As of December 19, the total box - office revenue of national movies in the past 7 days was 68,810,800 yuan, a year - on - year increase of 95.4% [28][31]. - **Transportation**: As of December 14, the port container throughput was 6.589 million twenty - foot equivalent units, a year - on - year increase of 7.4%. As of December 19, the average subway passenger volume in first - tier cities in the past 7 days was 3.9086 million person - times, a year - on - year increase of 2.1%. As of December 14, the postal express delivery volume was 4.13 billion pieces, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3%, and the delivery volume was 4.02 billion pieces, a year - on - year decrease of 1.3%. The railway freight volume was 79.935 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.1%, and the highway truck traffic volume was 54.345 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 2.1% [38][41]. - **Industrial Production**: As of December 17, the blast furnace operating rate of major steel enterprises was 76.1%, a year - on - year increase of 0.9 pct. As of December 18, the average operating rate of asphalt was 21.0%, a year - on - year decrease of 1.0 pct. As of December 18, the operating rate of soda ash was 82.9%, a year - on - year increase of 1.0 pct, and the PVC operating rate was 77.3%, a year - on - year decrease of 1.0 pct. As of December 19, the average operating rate of PX was 88.5%, and the average operating rate of PTA was 74.1% [46][50]. - **Real Estate**: As of December 19, the total commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities in the past 7 days was 251,400 square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 25.2%. As of December 12, the second - hand housing transaction area in 9 sample cities was 148,500 square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 39.0% [53][58]. - **Prices**: As of December 19, the average wholesale price of pork was 17.5 yuan/kg, a year - on - year decrease of 24.1% and a 2.6% decrease compared to 4 weeks ago. The average wholesale price of vegetables was 5.9 yuan/kg, a year - on - year increase of 17.6% and a 3.9% increase compared to 4 weeks ago. The average wholesale price of 6 key fruits was 7.6 yuan/kg, a year - on - year increase of 6.1% and a 6.6% increase compared to 4 weeks ago. The average price of thermal coal at northern ports was 744 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 5.1% and a 10.9% decrease compared to 4 weeks ago. The average spot price of WTI crude oil was 56.2 US dollars/barrel, a year - on - year decrease of 19.9% and a 6.0% decrease compared to 4 weeks ago. The average spot price of rebar was 3,208.9 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 4.3% and a 1.6% increase compared to 4 weeks ago. The average spot price of iron ore was 803.2 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 0.1% and a 0.5% decrease compared to 4 weeks ago. The average spot price of glass was 13.4 yuan/square meter, a year - on - year decrease of 18.0% and a 2.1% decrease compared to 4 weeks ago [61][63]. 3.3 Bond and Foreign Exchange Markets - **Money Market Rates**: On December 19, the overnight Shibor was 1.27%, a decrease of 0.07 BP compared to December 15. R001 was 1.35%, an increase of 0.51 BP compared to December 15; R007 was 1.51%, an increase of 0.25 BP compared to December 15. DR001 was 1.27%, a decrease of 0.34 BP compared to December 15; DR007 was 1.44%, a decrease of 0.27 BP compared to December 15. IBO001 was 1.33%, an increase of 0.41 BP compared to December 15; IBO007 was 1.46%, a decrease of 1.50 BP compared to December 15 [68]. - **Bond Yields**: On December 19, the yields of 1 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds were 1.36%, 1.60%, 1.83%, and 2.23% respectively, a decrease of 3.1 BP, 2.5 BP, 0.8 BP, and 2.2 BP respectively compared to December 12. The yields of 1 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year China Development Bank bonds were 1.58%, 1.80%, 1.97%, and 2.40% respectively, a decrease of 3.0 BP, 3.1 BP, 1.8 BP, and 0.4 BP respectively compared to December 12. The yields of 1 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year local government bonds were 1.54%, 1.78%, and 2.05% respectively, a decrease of 0.4 BP, an increase of 0.1 BP, and a decrease of 0.5 BP respectively compared to December 12. The yields of 1 - month and 1 - year AAA and AA + inter - bank certificates of deposit were 1.62%, 1.64%, 1.64%, and 1.67% respectively, a decrease of 0.2 BP, 2.6 BP, 0.2 BP, and 2.6 BP respectively compared to December 12 [72][73]. - **International Bond Yields**: As of December 19, 2025, the yields of 10 - year treasury bonds in the US, Japan, the UK, and Germany were 4.16%, 2.02%, 4.53%, and 2.98% respectively, a decrease of 3 BP, an increase of 7 BP, an increase of 3 BP, and an increase of 4 BP respectively compared to December 12 [80]. - **Exchange Rate**: On December 19, the central parity rate and spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan were 7.06 and 7.04 respectively, a decrease of 88 and 144 pips respectively compared to December 12 [82]. 3.4 Investment Suggestions The bond market in 2026 may perform better than expected. Since the second half of the year, the bond market has often deviated from the fundamentals and is dominated by institutional behavior. It is expected that the policy interest rate will be cut by about 20 BP in 2026, with a 10 - BP cut likely in Q1. In the long - term, the yield of 30 - year treasury bonds is closely related to the population structure, and it is predicted that the yield of 30 - year treasury bonds will fall below 2% in 2026. Different from the unanimous bullish sentiment of institutions a year ago, many non - bank institutions are currently bearish on the bond market, so the bond market in 2026 may perform better than expected. Currently, it is recommended to focus on the allocation value of 5 - year bank capital bonds and ultra - long - term interest - rate bonds [4][86].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook based on its diversified business model and growth potential in the rubber and plastic new materials sector, as well as auxiliary transportation equipment and military products [5]. Core Insights - The company focuses on the research, production, and sales of hydraulic combination seals and hydraulic hoses, alongside coal mine auxiliary transportation equipment. It is expected to achieve a gross margin of 41.26% in 2024. The revenue forecast for 2024 is projected at 483 million yuan, with a net profit of 86.91 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.25% [5][31][43]. - The demand for the company's products is driven by the mechanization and upgrading of equipment in the coal mining industry. The hydraulic seals and hoses are essential components in this sector, which is expected to see stable growth due to ongoing investments in mechanization and equipment updates [11][21]. - The company has established long-term partnerships with major clients in the coal and military sectors, including Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry Group, which accounted for over 30% of sales in 2024. This high customer concentration reflects the reliability and sustainability of its business model [39][40]. Summary by Sections Industry - The company benefits from the mechanization and upgrading of equipment in the coal mining industry, with the hydraulic seal market expected to exceed 5 billion yuan by 2025. The hydraulic hose production is also projected to grow, with an expected output of 2.28 billion standard meters in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.2% [16][21]. - The coal mining auxiliary transportation equipment market is anticipated to see significant demand growth, with an average annual market size of 930 to 1,552 million yuan from 2023 to 2025 [18][21]. Company Overview - The company specializes in hydraulic combination seals and hoses, as well as coal mine auxiliary transportation equipment, with a gross margin of 41.26% expected in 2024. The revenue from rubber and plastic new materials is projected to reach 267 million yuan, while auxiliary transportation equipment is expected to generate 166 million yuan in revenue [31][33][43]. - The company has a strong focus on R&D, with over 200 mature formulations for rubber materials, allowing for customized product development to meet diverse customer needs [5][6][10]. Financial Performance - The company has shown consistent revenue growth, with a revenue of 442 million yuan in 2023, increasing to 483 million yuan in 2024. The net profit is expected to grow from 83 million yuan in 2023 to 104 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 9.54% from 2021 to 2024 [7][43]. - The gross margin for rubber and plastic new materials has remained stable, with 49.72% in 2024, supported by high-value product sales and successful market entry into military and other high-margin sectors [37][43].

证券研究报告 公用事业 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 12 月 22 日 证券分析师 查浩 SAC：S1350524060004 zhahao@huayuanstock.com 刘晓宁 SAC：S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 邓思平 SAC：S1350524070003 dengsiping@huayuanstock.com 戴映炘 SAC：S1350524080002 daiyingxin@huayuanstock.com 秦雨茁 qinyuzhuo@huayuanstock.com 投资评级： 看好（维持） 2026 年能源工作会议召开，北美 AI 缺电持续演绎 ——大能源行业 2025 年第 51 周周报（20251221） 投资要点： 电力：2026 年全国能源工作会议召开 多省"十五五"能源建设方向明确 全国能源工作会议召开，2026 年新增新能源装机 2 亿千瓦以上。12 月 15 日，2026 年全国能源工作会议在北京召开。会议肯定了 2025 年的能源保供成绩，预期以火电 为主的调节性电源在"十五五"期间仍将受到重 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on the company due to its benefits from the AI data center construction trend [2]. Core Insights - The company specializes in passive optical devices, which are integrated into the global data center supply chain, with long-term growth driven by AI demand [1]. - The company has a strong market position in high-density and high-speed passive optical products, with over 80% of its revenue coming from data centers, including AI data centers [2]. - The financial performance is robust, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 128.5% for net profit from 2021 to 2024 [2]. Summary by Sections Initial Offering - The company plans to issue 10.25 million shares at a price of 31.59 CNY per share, with an earnings per share (EPS) ratio of 14.57X [5][6]. - The total investment for fundraising projects is expected to reach 676 million CNY, aimed at expanding production capacity for passive optical fiber products and related devices [7][9]. Company Overview - The company is a leading manufacturer of precision optical connectors, with a focus on passive optical devices for cloud providers and AI clusters [10]. - It has established stable relationships with major clients, including AFL and Coherent, and its products are used by industry giants like AT&T, Google, and Tencent [29][30]. Financial Performance - The company’s revenue is projected to reach 1.32 billion CNY in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 114.4% [32]. - The net profit for 2024 is expected to be 147.58 million CNY, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 128.7% [33]. Industry Insights - The global data center capital expenditure is expected to reach 455 billion USD in 2024, significantly driving the demand for optical modules [40]. - The optical communication market in China is projected to grow to 147.3 billion CNY by 2024, with a CAGR of 5.18% from 2021 to 2024 [41][43]. - The demand for optical modules, particularly in AI applications, is forecasted to grow substantially, with sales expected to increase by 146% in 2024 [47].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the credit spreads of the AAA electrical equipment industry compressed significantly compared to last week, while the credit spreads of other industries and ratings widened to varying degrees. For urban investment bonds, the credit spreads of those with a maturity over 10 years compressed slightly by 1BP, while the spreads of other maturities widened by 3BP. For industrial bonds, most of the industrial credit spreads continued to widen, with the short - end widening more significantly than the long - end. For bank capital bonds, the short - end spreads of bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds within 1 year widened slightly, while the long - end spreads over 10 years compressed slightly [3][4][30]. - In 2026, for urban investment bonds, short - duration (within 2Y) sinking urban investment bonds can be used as a base position, and high - quality urban investment entities with a moderately extended duration (3 - 5Y) can be selected. For industrial bonds, high - quality central and state - owned enterprise industrial bonds can be used as a base position with an extended duration, and attention should be paid to industries with marginal improvements. For Tier 2 and perpetual bonds, trading opportunities of those with good liquidity (preferably 3 - 5Y AAA -) should be grasped, and attention should be paid to high - quality city commercial banks and rural commercial banks in economically developed areas and areas with advanced debt resolution progress [5][7][44]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Credit Hot Events - On December 19th, the Shanghai Stock Exchange issued a notice allowing eligible overseas institutional investors to conduct bond repurchase business on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, providing them with standardized liquidity management tools [11]. - On December 15th, the National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors launched a self - regulatory investigation into Postal Savings Bank of China for suspected violations in the underwriting and issuance of debt financing instruments [12]. - On December 15th, Guizhou Rural Commercial United Bank Co., Ltd. was approved to open. It acquired the shares of 16 rural commercial banks and 5 rural credit cooperatives, with an increased registered capital of 10.458 billion yuan and new shareholders including the Guizhou Provincial Department of Finance and China Kweichow Moutai Group Co., Ltd. [13]. 3.2 Primary Market 3.2.1 Net Financing Scale - This week, the net financing of credit bonds (excluding asset - backed securities) was 116.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 128.1 billion yuan compared to last week. The total issuance was 365.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 99.1 billion yuan, and the total repayment was 249.3 billion yuan, an increase of 29 billion yuan. The net financing of asset - backed securities was 20.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 27 billion yuan compared to last week [14]. - By product type, the net financing of urban investment bonds was 21.3 billion yuan, an increase of 500 million yuan; the net financing of industrial bonds was 70.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 44.7 billion yuan; and the net financing of financial bonds was 24 billion yuan, a decrease of 83.9 billion yuan [15]. 3.2.2 Issuance Cost - This week, the issuance rates of AA industrial bonds and urban investment bonds were adjusted to over 2.8%, while the average issuance rates of other bonds with different ratings and types were below 2.8%. Specifically, the issuance rates of AA industrial bonds and urban investment bonds increased by 45BP and 27BP respectively compared to last week, and the issuance rate of AA + financial bonds increased by 58BP [17]. 3.3 Secondary Market 3.3.1 Transaction Situation - In terms of trading volume, the trading volume of credit bonds (excluding asset - backed securities) decreased by 44.3 billion yuan compared to last week. By product type, the trading volume of urban investment bonds was 259.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 13.7 billion yuan; the trading volume of industrial bonds was 367.4 billion yuan, an increase of 13.2 billion yuan; the trading volume of financial bonds was 627.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 43.8 billion yuan. The trading volume of asset - backed securities was 25.5 billion yuan, an increase of 1 billion yuan [24]. - In terms of turnover rate, the turnover rate of credit bonds showed a mixed trend compared to last week. Specifically, the turnover rate of urban investment bonds was 1.66%, a decrease of 0.1 pct; the turnover rate of industrial bonds was 1.89%, an increase of 0.06 pct; the turnover rate of financial bonds was 4.05%, a decrease of 0.29 pct; the turnover rate of asset - backed securities was 0.67%, an increase of 0.03 pct [24]. 3.3.2 Yield - This week, the yields of credit bonds with different ratings and maturities fluctuated within 3BP compared to last week. For example, the yields of AA, AAA -, and AAA + credit bonds within 1 year decreased by 2BP, 2BP, and 1BP respectively; the yields of AA and AAA + credit bonds with a 5 - year maturity increased by 2BP and 1BP respectively, while the yield of AAA - credit bonds decreased by 1BP; the yields of AA, AAA -, and AAA + credit bonds with a maturity over 10 years decreased by 1BP, 1BP, and less than 1BP respectively [25]. 3.3.3 Credit Spreads - Overall, the credit spreads of the AAA electrical equipment industry compressed significantly by 14BP compared to last week, while the spreads of other industries and ratings widened to varying degrees. For example, the credit spreads of the AA + leisure service industry widened by 20BP, and the spreads of the AA + media and light manufacturing industries widened by 9BP [30]. - **Urban Investment Bonds**: By maturity, the credit spreads of urban investment bonds with a maturity over 10 years compressed slightly by 1BP, while the spreads of other maturities widened by 3BP. By region, the top five regions with the highest credit spreads of AA - rated urban investment bonds were Guizhou, Yunnan, Jilin, Shandong, and Sichuan; for AA + urban investment bonds, they were Guizhou, Inner Mongolia, Gansu, Shaanxi, and Yunnan; for AAA urban investment bonds, they were Liaoning, Yunnan, Shaanxi, Jilin, and Tianjin [32][34]. - **Industrial Bonds**: Most of the industrial credit spreads continued to widen, with the short - end widening more significantly than the long - end. For example, the credit spreads of 1 - year AAA -, AA +, and AA private industrial bonds widened by 4BP, 4BP, and 7BP respectively compared to last week; the spreads of 10 - year AAA -, AA +, and AA private industrial bonds widened by 2BP, 2BP, and 2BP respectively [36]. - **Bank Capital Bonds**: The short - end spreads of bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds within 1 year widened slightly, while the long - end spreads over 10 years compressed slightly. For example, the credit spreads of 1 - year AAA -, AA +, and AA Tier 2 capital bonds widened by 4BP, 3BP, and 3BP respectively compared to last week, and the spreads of 10 - year AAA -, AA +, and AA Tier 2 capital bonds compressed by 3BP, 2BP, and 2BP respectively [39]. 3.4 This Week's Bond Market Negative News - This week, the implied ratings of bonds issued by five issuers, including Nanjing Zijin Financial Leasing Co., Ltd. and Beijing Tianheng Yuanxin Capital Investment Management Co., Ltd., were downgraded. The "H20 Tianying 3" issued by Wuhan Tianying Investment Group Co., Ltd. and the "Hongda Debenture" issued by Hongda Xingye Co., Ltd. defaulted in essence [4][40]. 3.5 Investment Recommendations - In 2026, for urban investment bonds, short - duration (within 2Y) sinking urban investment bonds can be used as a base position to obtain stable coupon income, and high - quality urban investment entities with a moderately extended duration (3 - 5Y) can be selected to increase portfolio returns. For industrial bonds, high - quality central and state - owned enterprise industrial bonds can be used as a base position with an extended duration to obtain stable coupon income, and attention should be paid to industries with marginal improvements. For Tier 2 and perpetual bonds, trading opportunities of those with good liquidity (preferably 3 - 5Y AAA -) should be grasped, and attention should be paid to high - quality city commercial banks and rural commercial banks in economically developed areas and areas with advanced debt resolution progress [44].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [3] Core Views - Copper prices are experiencing high volatility, supported by macroeconomic factors such as the unexpected rise in the US unemployment rate and lower-than-expected CPI, which have increased expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [4] - The supply-demand dynamics for copper are tightening, with capital expenditures on copper mines insufficient and frequent supply disruptions expected to lead to a shift from a tight balance to a shortage [4] - The aluminum market is characterized by a slight accumulation of domestic inventory, with prices remaining high due to stable demand and limited supply growth [4] - The lithium sector is witnessing strong demand, with lithium prices entering an upward cycle as inventory continues to deplete [4] - Cobalt prices are expected to continue rising due to a tight supply of raw materials, despite some easing of export restrictions from the Democratic Republic of Congo [4] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The US unemployment rate for November was reported at 4.6%, exceeding expectations, while non-farm employment increased by 64,000, also above forecasts [8] - The US retail sales for October were flat, and the CPI for November was reported at 2.7%, below expectations [8] 2. Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly increase of 1.46% compared to a 0.03% rise in the index [10] - The sector's PE_TTM valuation is at 26.64 times, while the PB_LF valuation is at 3.29 times, indicating a premium over the broader market [19] 3. Copper - London copper prices increased by 0.36%, while Shanghai copper prices decreased by 0.96% [24] - Copper inventories in London decreased by 3.32%, while Shanghai inventories increased by 7.18% [24] 4. Aluminum - London aluminum prices rose by 2.37%, while Shanghai aluminum prices fell by 0.54% [36] - The aluminum industry is facing a slight increase in inventory, with production capacity nearing its limits [4] 5. Lithium - Lithium carbonate prices rose by 3.33% to 97,650 CNY/ton, while lithium hydroxide prices increased by 3.91% to 86,280 CNY/ton [78] - The lithium sector is expected to see a profit turning point as demand continues to grow [4] 6. Cobalt - The price of MB cobalt rose by 0.51% to 24.45 USD/pound, with domestic cobalt prices increasing by 1.93% to 422,000 CNY/ton [90] - The supply of cobalt remains tight, with expectations for continued price increases [4]

证券研究报告 晨会 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 12 月 21 日 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 投资要点： 资料来源：聚源，华源证券研究所，截至2025年12月19日 华源晨会精粹 20251221 新消费 密集政策提振消费，海南自由贸易港封关运作正式启动——新消费行业周 报：扩大内需是战略之举，消费有关政策频出：中央经济工作会议提出八项明年经 济工作的重点任务，其中第一项重点任务为坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场。12 月 15 日，《求是》杂志发表文章《扩大内需是战略之举》，文章强调要"牢牢把握 扩大内需这一战略基点"，阐明了扩大内需对发展全局的基础支撑作用。商务部等 9 部门发布《关于扩大服务消费的若干政策措施》，提出五方面 19 条举措。商务部、 中国人民银行、金融监管总局联合发布《关于加强商务和金融协同，更大力度提振 消费的通知》。海南自由贸易港全岛封关运作正式启动，中免发布多重礼遇。根据 中免海南战报，12 月 18 日封关首日中免海南销售额超 2.5 亿元，同比增长 90%。 2025 年 1-11 月美容护肤品牌格局：TOP5 品牌主要由珀莱雅、欧莱雅、韩束、兰 蔻、 ...