Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company's performance has been affected by poor wind conditions, leading to a focus on the construction turning point under comprehensive market entry [5] - The company has transitioned to a pure renewable energy company, with significant potential for future asset injections from its parent group [8] Financial Performance Summary - For Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 8.14 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 0.92%, while net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders was 1.977 billion RMB, a decrease of 21.82% [8] - The decline in revenue is attributed to the divestment of two thermal power companies, with wind and solar revenue showing a year-on-year change of -1.89% and +43.09%, respectively [8] - The company's installed capacity as of Q1 2025 was 41.15 million kW, with wind power capacity at 30.44 million kW (up 10% year-on-year) and solar capacity at 10.70 million kW (up 65% year-on-year) [8] - The forecasted net profit for 2025-2027 is 6.794 billion, 7.202 billion, and 7.756 billion RMB, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 7.5, 7.1, and 6.6 [7][8]

证券研究报告 公用事业 | 电力 非金融|公司点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 05 月 17 日 查浩 SAC：S1350524060004 zhahao@huayuanstock.com 刘晓宁 SAC：S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 邓思平 SAC：S1350524070003 dengsiping@huayuanstock.com 市场表现： | 基本数据 | 月 | 年 | 05 | | 日 | 16 | | 2025 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | | | | 3.22 | | | | | | | 一 年 最 高 / 最 低 | | | | 3.33/2.40 | | | 内 | | | | （元） | | | | | | | | | | | 总市值（百万元） | | | | 59,591.61 | | | | | | | 流通市值（百万元） | | | | 59,591.61 | | | | | | | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company's performance is stable and slightly exceeds expectations, with contributions from both thermal and hydropower generation [5] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 39.813 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.61%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.811 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.45% [7] - The company has a robust cash flow, with a net operating cash flow of 14 billion yuan in the first quarter, a 93% increase year-on-year, marking the highest for the company in its first quarter reports [7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 180.999 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 7.02% [6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 is estimated at 5.609 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 98.80% [6] - The company expects to achieve a net profit of 6.811 billion yuan in 2025, a decrease of 30.72% compared to 2024 [6] - The average on-grid electricity price in the first quarter was 425.41 yuan/MWh, a decrease of 6.6% year-on-year [7] - The company plans capital expenditures of 74.1 billion yuan in 2025, with a focus on both traditional and renewable energy projects [7][8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The improvement in water inflow is expected to enhance performance significantly, and the cash flow value continues to stand out [5] - The company is projected to maintain an average utilization hour of around 2500 hours from 2025 to 2027, with estimated net profits of 413 million, 453 million, and 476 million RMB for those years, respectively [6] Financial Performance Summary - The company reported a revenue of 401 million RMB in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 53.88% - The net profit attributable to the parent company for Q1 2025 was 52 million RMB, a significant increase of 348.38% year-on-year [8] - The company achieved a gross profit of 211 million RMB in Q1 2025, with a gross margin of 52.55%, up 10.54 percentage points year-on-year [8] - The total revenue for 2025 is projected to be 2,423 million RMB, with a year-on-year growth rate of 25.34% [7] - The net profit for 2025 is expected to be 413 million RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 89.41% [7] Cash Flow and Debt Management - The company reported an operating cash flow of 272 million RMB in Q1 2025, an increase of 63.94% year-on-year [8] - The debt ratio as of March 2025 was 55.11%, a decrease of 1.04 percentage points from December 2024 [8] - The company plans to reduce its debt ratio further to 54.14% by the end of 2025 through ongoing debt repayment [8] Future Projections - The company anticipates a total power generation of 8.785 billion kWh in 2025, with capital expenditures projected at 211 million RMB [8] - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 0.97 RMB, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 16.56 [7]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the importance of a cash flow-based selection framework for identifying quality companies on the Beijing Stock Exchange, focusing on operating, investing, and financing cash flows to assess financial health and growth potential [3][6][20] - A total of 64 companies were identified through the operating cash flow perspective, with 14 from the machinery equipment sector and 6 from the basic chemical sector, highlighting the significance of cash conversion ability [14][15][17] - The top two companies based on cash yield ratio were Knight Dairy and Wangcheng Technology, with five-year median ratios of 277.14% and 210.20% respectively, indicating strong cash generation capabilities [15][16] Group 2 - The investment cash flow perspective revealed 25 quality companies, with 10 from the machinery equipment sector, indicating a strong capital efficiency among these firms [23][24][26] - Guangzi International had the highest five-year average of operating cash flow to investment cash flow ratio at 17.05, showcasing its ability to cover investment needs through operational cash generation [24][25] - The financing cash flow perspective identified 71 companies with a median cash flow interest coverage ratio greater than 3, with the machinery equipment sector contributing 12 companies, indicating robust debt servicing capabilities [31][34][35]

Fixed Income - In April 2025, new loans amounted to 280 billion yuan, and social financing reached 1.16 trillion yuan, with M2 at 325.2 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 8.0% [2][7] - The growth rate of social financing rebounded significantly to 8.7% in April, driven by government bond net financing and other factors [9][10] - The report suggests a defensive strategy for the bond market, anticipating potential adjustments in long-term interest rates due to economic improvements and changes in tax policies [10] Transportation Industry - In Q1 2025, the express delivery sector saw a price war intensifying among franchise-based companies, while direct-operated companies maintained stable growth [12][11] - The aviation sector experienced a 5% year-on-year increase in passenger volume, with international passenger numbers surpassing 2019 levels for the first time in five years, although pricing pressures persisted [12][11] - The highway sector benefited from a recovery in traffic volume, leading to profit restoration for many leading companies [13][11] - The shipping industry faced challenges with container shipping rates declining, while oil shipping markets showed signs of recovery [13][11] Education and Overseas Research - Weishi Jiajie (00856.HK) reported a 16-17% year-on-year increase in revenue for Q1 2025, with net profit rising by 28-29%, attributed to optimized distribution business and increasing market share of domestic brands [15][16] - The company is focusing on expanding its product range to meet diverse customer needs, enhancing its market competitiveness [17][15] North Exchange - Fujida (835640.BJ) is a leader in the domestic RF connector industry, with a focus on 5G-A, 6G, and commercial satellite sectors, achieving a net profit of 51.13 million yuan in 2024 [18][19] - The domestic connector market is projected to reach 185.1 billion yuan in 2024, driven by advancements in communication technology and satellite internet [19][20] - The company has established a strong position in high-end fields such as communication and aerospace, with significant client relationships including Huawei and major defense contractors [20][21]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the transportation industry [1] Core Insights - The transportation industry is experiencing a steady demand increase despite price reductions, maintaining a healthy dividend [1] - The express delivery sector is facing intensified price competition, leading to operational divergence among companies, while direct-operated express companies are achieving stable growth [4][10] - The aviation sector is under pressure due to increased passenger volume but reduced ticket prices, with a slow improvement in supply-demand relationships [4][52] - The highway sector is seeing a recovery in traffic volume, resulting in profit restoration for most leading companies [4][59] - The shipping industry is experiencing mixed performance, with container shipping under pressure from external trade policies, while oil shipping is recovering [4][59] - The shipbuilding market is facing challenges due to fluctuating demand and pricing pressures [7] - Port operations are stable, with significant growth in cargo throughput [7] - The bulk supply chain is under pressure from weak demand, but leading companies are demonstrating resilience [7][32] Summary by Sections Express Delivery - The express delivery industry saw a year-on-year business volume growth of 21.6% in Q1 2025, exceeding market expectations [14] - Major companies like YTO, Yunda, and Shentong reported business volumes of 6.78 billion, 6.08 billion, and 5.81 billion pieces respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 21.7%, 23.0%, and 26.6% [14] - The average revenue per package in Q1 2025 decreased by 8.8% year-on-year, indicating ongoing price competition [18] - The single-package profit for YTO, Yunda, and Shentong decreased by 25.3%, 36.7%, and 2.0% respectively [24] Aviation - The aviation sector experienced a 4.9% year-on-year increase in passenger volume in Q1 2025, reaching 186 million passengers [52] - The international passenger volume surpassed the 2019 level for the first time, indicating a recovery in international travel [52] - The average ticket price is under pressure, leading to a decline in unit revenue for major airlines [68] Highways - The highway sector is witnessing a steady recovery in traffic volume, contributing to profit growth for most leading companies [4][59] - Nine out of nineteen listed highway companies reported an increase in dividend yield year-on-year [4] Shipping - The container shipping index decreased by 12% year-on-year due to external trade uncertainties, while domestic shipping showed some recovery [4][59] - The oil shipping market is experiencing a recovery, but the bulk shipping market remains sluggish [4] Ports - Major ports achieved a cargo throughput of 4.222 billion tons in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 3.23% [7] Bulk Supply Chain - The bulk supply chain is facing challenges due to weak demand, but leading companies are adapting through operational optimizations [7][32] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the express delivery sector, such as ZTO Express, YTO Express, and Shentong Express, due to their stable operations and growth potential [32]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company reported 1Q25 performance that exceeded expectations, with revenue growth of 16-17% year-on-year, gross profit growth of 20-21%, and net profit attributable to shareholders growing by 28-29%. This is primarily attributed to the optimization of the distribution business structure and the continuous increase in market share of domestic brands [5][6] - The domestic market is expected to benefit from the recovery of distribution losses and the demand driven by AI, which may lead to profit elasticity release. The Southeast Asian market continues to show high gross margins and growth rates, with gross margins expected to remain relatively stable [6][7] - The company is committed to broadening its product portfolio to meet the increasingly diverse needs of customers, enhancing overall market competitiveness. By deepening partnerships with globally recognized brands, the company has successfully built a comprehensive product ecosystem covering enterprise systems, consumer electronics, and cloud computing [7] Financial Summary - The company is projected to achieve net profits of HKD 11.78 billion, HKD 13.15 billion, and HKD 14.29 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 12.0%, 11.6%, and 8.7% [5][8] - The estimated revenue for 2025 is HKD 96.42 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.2%. The company’s PE ratio for 2025 is projected to be 8X [8][9] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to increase from 12.2% in 2024 to 14.0% in 2027, indicating improved profitability [8][9]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [5]. Core Views - The company is a leader in the domestic RF connector industry, focusing on advanced fields such as 5G-A, 6G, and commercial satellites [5]. - The company has accelerated its product layout in commercial satellites and 6G, with its HTCC production line already capable of small-batch production [6]. - The company aims to enhance its market presence in the satellite sector, which is expected to grow rapidly due to the scarcity of low-orbit resources [6]. - In the civil communications sector, the company is extending its support to major clients, particularly in the 5G and 5G+ areas, while also focusing on emerging industries [6]. - The company has achieved significant milestones in the development and production of copper cable components, laying the groundwork for future mass production [8]. Financial Summary - The company achieved a revenue of 763 million yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year decrease of 6.42%, and a net profit of 51.13 million yuan, down 65.02% year-on-year [7]. - The projected revenues for 2025 are estimated at 886 million yuan, with a growth rate of 16.16%, and a net profit of 100 million yuan, reflecting a significant recovery [10]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be 0.53 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 53.68 [10]. - The company has a high customer concentration, with the top five clients accounting for 78% of total revenue in 2024 [7]. Market Position and Growth Potential - The global connector market is expected to grow from 51.18 billion USD in 2013 to 85.1 billion USD in 2024, while the Chinese connector market is projected to increase from 178 billion yuan in 2023 to 185.1 billion yuan in 2024 [7]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing transformation in the downstream industry, particularly in high-tech fields such as AI, IoT, and 5G/6G communications [7]. - The company has led the formulation of 14 IEC international standards, enhancing its competitive edge and market position [7].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In April 2025, the growth rate of social financing increased significantly, with new loans of 28 billion yuan and social financing of 1.16 trillion yuan. The M2 growth rate rebounded significantly, and the M1 growth rate was stable. The new loans in April were less than the same period last year, but the total for the first four months was close to the previous year. Looking ahead to 2025, new loans are expected to increase year - on - year, government bond net financing will expand significantly, and social financing will increase significantly year - on - year. The social financing growth rate may rise first and then fall, with an expected year - end growth rate of around 8.4%. [1][2] - It is recommended to adopt a full - defense strategy in the bond market. The negative economic cycle of the past two years has ended, and the economy is stabilizing internally. With the significant reduction of US tariffs on China, the bond market needs to guard against the possibility of economic data exceeding expectations. After the significant tariff reduction, the economic outlook has improved significantly, and the central bank may need to push up the long - term bond yields moderately. In 2025, pure bond investment should be cautious, and attention should be paid to stock and convertible bond opportunities. [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Content New Loans - In April 2025, new loans were 28 billion yuan, less than the same period last year, but the total for the first four months was close to the previous year. The second - quarter April and May are usually small months for credit issuance, and June is a large month. The credit data in the first half of 2025 was affected by the replacement of implicit debts. The low stock mortgage interest rate and the stable stock market alleviated the pressure of early mortgage repayment, and the demand for mortgage loans improved. In April, individual loans decreased by 52.16 billion yuan, including a decrease of 40.19 billion yuan in short - term individual loans and 12.31 billion yuan in medium - and long - term individual loans. Corporate short - term loans decreased by 48 billion yuan, corporate medium - and long - term loans increased by 25 billion yuan, and bill financing increased by 83.41 billion yuan. With the significant reduction of US tariffs on China and the low year - on - year base, new loans are likely to increase year - on - year in the next few months. [1][2][7] M1 and M2 - Since January 2025, the central bank has adopted a new M1 caliber, which further includes personal current deposits and non - bank payment institution customer reserves on the basis of the previous M1. As of the end of April 2025, the new - caliber M1 balance reached 109.1 trillion yuan, and the old - caliber M1 was 66.3 trillion yuan. In recent years, the year - on - year growth rates of the new and old M1 calibers have been similar, but the new - caliber M1 growth rate is more stable. In April, the new - caliber M1 growth rate was 1.5%, close to the previous month; the old - caliber M1 growth rate was - 0.2%, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous month. Since Q4 2024, the growth rates of both new and old M1 calibers have rebounded significantly, reflecting the gradual increase in economic activity. The M2 growth rate in April was 8.0%, up 1 percentage point from the previous month, which was related to the large decline in M2 in April 2024 when manual interest compensation was standardized and the large increase in M2 derivation due to the significant year - on - year increase in social financing in April this year. [2][4] Social Financing - In April 2025, the social financing increment was 1.16 trillion yuan, a significant year - on - year increase of 1.22 trillion yuan. The increase mainly came from government bond net financing and undiscounted items. The increment of RMB loans to the real economy in April was 8.84 billion yuan, 24.65 billion yuan less than the same period last year; undiscounted bank acceptance bills decreased by 27.94 billion yuan; corporate bond net financing increased by 23.4 billion yuan; government bond net financing was 97.29 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.07 trillion yuan. At the end of April, the social financing growth rate was 8.7%, up 0.4 percentage points from the end of the previous month and 0.7 percentage points from the beginning of the year. [1][2][10]