Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the increasing hostility from the U.S. towards China's maritime and shipbuilding industries, yet asserts that China's shipbuilding industry remains robust and resilient [5][6] - The U.S. maritime trade heavily relies on non-Chinese existing capacities, which are sufficient to meet American shipping demands in the short term [42][44] - The report suggests that the green shipbuilding cycle presents significant investment opportunities within the Chinese shipbuilding industry, recommending attention to companies such as China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation, China Power, China Shipbuilding Defense, and Songfa Co. [6][38] Summary by Sections U.S. Investigation into China's Maritime and Shipbuilding Industries - The U.S. initiated a 301 investigation into China's maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding sectors, accusing China of attempting to dominate these industries, which allegedly suppresses U.S. business interests [6][13] - The U.S. has proposed additional port fees for Chinese-built ships and introduced the "Ships for America Act" to increase the share of U.S.-built ships in maritime trade [6][21] U.S. Maritime Trade vs. Chinese Shipbuilding Industry - The report indicates that the U.S. is a major region for resource exports and consumer goods imports, with a significant portion of maritime trade involving medium to large vessels [6][29] - The existing non-Chinese shipping capacity is adequate to meet U.S. maritime trade needs, even if extreme measures are taken against Chinese shipbuilding [44] Resilience of China's Shipbuilding Industry - Since the early 21st century, China's shipbuilding industry has flourished, surpassing South Korea to become the largest shipbuilding nation [48] - The report notes that China's shipbuilding capacity has significantly increased, with a projected delivery capacity of 53.4% by 2024, up from 6.9% in 2001 [38][41]

Group 1: Power Equipment Industry Investment Strategy - The report highlights that the completion rate of the 14th Five-Year Plan for new energy reached 99% by November 2024, with solar power at 114% and wind power at 80%, indicating a strong progress in solar energy development [2][8] - The report identifies issues in grid construction, such as slow delivery channels in the northern regions and insufficient distribution network capacity in the south, which exacerbate the pressure on energy consumption [2][8] - It emphasizes the potential for increased investment in distribution networks and the deepening of reforms in this area, suggesting opportunities for companies involved in distribution equipment [2][9] Group 2: Wind Power and Traditional Energy Sources - Wind power systems are projected to have lower costs compared to solar power, leading to an expected increase in operational priority for wind energy [2][9] - The report anticipates a significant increase in wind power bidding volumes in the final year of the 14th Five-Year Plan, with prices for onshore wind projects beginning to rebound, indicating a potential recovery in profitability for turbine manufacturers [2][9] - The supply-demand situation for traditional energy remains tight, with average system reserve rates expected to stay low, necessitating sufficient traditional power sources to ensure electricity safety [2][10] Group 3: Yum China Holdings (09987.HK) Overview - Yum China is recognized as a leading Western fast-food brand in China, with a total of 16,395 stores expected to grow to 20,000 by 2026 [2][12] - The company reported a total revenue of $11.303 billion in 2024, with KFC and Pizza Hut accounting for 95% of this revenue [2][12] - Yum China plans capital expenditures between $700 million and $800 million in 2025, while also increasing shareholder return targets to $4.5 billion for 2024-2026, reflecting confidence in future growth [2][12][14] Group 4: Tuojing Technology (688072.SH) Performance - Tuojing Technology is positioned as a leader in domestic thin film deposition equipment, with projected revenues of $4-4.2 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 70%-90% [2][17] - The company has significantly increased its equipment shipments, with over 1,000 deposition chambers expected to be shipped in 2024, marking a historical high [2][17] - The report notes that the global semiconductor industry is expanding, with a forecasted annual growth rate of 6.6% for semiconductor capacity in 2025, benefiting companies like Tuojing Technology [2][19]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an initial investment rating of "Buy" for Sichuan Road and Bridge [4][6]. Core Views - Sichuan Road and Bridge is positioned to benefit from the ongoing infrastructure investment in the Sichuan-Chongqing economic circle, focusing on its core business to explore new growth opportunities [4][8]. - The company has a strong market position in the Sichuan province, with a solid financial structure and ample funding support for infrastructure projects [5][41]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company is projected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 8.018 billion, 8.637 billion, and 9.538 billion RMB for the years 2024 to 2026, with growth rates of -10.94%, +7.71%, and +10.44% respectively [4][6]. - Revenue forecasts for the same period are -9.08%, +7.43%, and +9.21%, indicating a compound annual growth rate of +8.31% [7][8]. Market Environment - Sichuan province's infrastructure investment is expected to continue growing, with public road investment increasing from 123.98 billion RMB in 2016 to 255.57 billion RMB in 2023, reflecting a CAGR of 10.89% [5][41]. - The province's comprehensive financial strength reached 1,938.907 billion RMB in 2023, ranking fifth among 20 provinces, with a debt ratio of only 105%, indicating a healthy fiscal structure [5][57]. Business Strategy - The company has optimized its shareholding structure, increasing the stake in its profitable road and bridge mining segment from 60% to 64%, which is expected to enhance operational efficiency and reduce pressure from non-core businesses [5][8]. - Sichuan Road and Bridge maintains a high dividend payout ratio of 50%, which is expected to continue, reflecting its commitment to shareholder returns [5][32]. Growth Potential - The report highlights the potential for recovery and growth following the impact of the "8.21" flood event, with new leadership expected to drive higher quality growth and transformation [5][36][37]. - The ongoing development of the Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle is anticipated to further enhance the company's market opportunities, with significant investments planned in transportation infrastructure [5][51].

证券研究报告 电子 | 半导体 非金融|首次覆盖报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 02 月 18 日 证券分析师 葛星甫 SAC：S1350524120001 gexingfu@huayuanstock.com 市场表现： | 基本数据 | | | 2025 | 年 | | | 日 | | 17 | | | | 02 | 月 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | | | | | | 193.21 | | | | | | | | | | | 一 年 内 | 最 | 高 | | | | | | 最 | | 低 | / | 256.99/115.50 | | | | | （元） | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 总市值（百万元） | | | | | 120,246.90 | | | | | | | | | | | | 流通市值（百万元） | | | | | 120,246.90 | | ...

证券研究报告 晨会 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 02 月 17 日 投资要点： 资料来源：聚源，华源证券研究所，截至 2025 年 2 月 17 日 华源晨会精粹 交运 美印加强能源合作，西油东运逻辑增强——航运船舶市场系列（七）：2 月 13 日，美印两方就能源问题达成协议，美方希望通过销售油气弥补美印贸易逆差，印 度将增加美国能源进口，并将让美国成为印度油气第一供应国。美印分别是原油产 需侧主要增量，增加贸易有天然需求。美国曾是印度主要原油进口来源之一，在俄 乌冲突后明显减少。美印原油贸易上升空间在于俄油部分。考虑到俄油对印出口与 西方对俄制裁高度相关，印度在增加从美国进口的同时，是否会减少俄油进口将成 为关键变量。分情景分析 2025 年美对印度原油出口增量：情景一：美印原油贸易顺 应自然供需增长，增量约为 21.0 万桶/日（相当于 10 艘 VLCC 年运量）；情景二： 印度为顾及与美关系，将俄油进口量减少 50%，并转向美国，增量约为 111.4 万桶/ 日（相当于 53 艘 VLCC 年运量）；情景三：西方对俄油制裁结束，俄油完全回归欧 洲市场，印度进口缺口完全转向美国，增量约为 2 ...

Group 1: Energy Cooperation and Shipping Market - The report highlights the strengthening of energy cooperation between the US and India, with India increasing energy imports from the US, potentially making it the primary supplier of oil and gas for India [2][11] - The report provides a scenario analysis for the potential increase in US crude oil exports to India in 2025, estimating increases of 210,000 barrels per day under natural supply-demand growth, 1,114,000 barrels per day if India reduces Russian oil imports by 50%, and 2,018,000 barrels per day if Russian oil returns to European markets [2][13] - The strengthening of US-India oil trade is expected to benefit the Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) market, as the shift from Russian oil to US oil will increase demand for VLCCs [2][14] Group 2: Public Utilities and Renewable Energy - The leadership changes at major energy companies, such as Datang Group and State Energy Group, are anticipated to drive high-quality development in the energy sector [15][16] - The new market-oriented pricing policy for renewable energy is seen as beneficial for green electricity operations, addressing issues of guaranteed utilization hours and pricing uncertainties [17][18] - The report emphasizes that wind power is expected to outperform solar power in terms of profitability under the new pricing mechanism, as wind energy prices are generally higher than those of solar [17][18] Group 3: Construction and Infrastructure - The construction sector is showing signs of recovery post-Spring Festival, with a reported 23.5% reopening rate of construction sites nationwide as of February 13, 2025 [21] - The report notes that the construction sector has outperformed the broader market, with a cumulative increase of 3.3% in the construction index since January 27, 2025 [20][21] - The issuance of special bonds for infrastructure projects has increased significantly, with a cumulative issuance of 711.5 billion yuan, up 79.92% year-on-year [22] Group 4: Pharmaceutical Industry - The report covers the robust growth of the pharmaceutical company Sanofi, which has over 40 products in various therapeutic areas, with core products like Teva and Mandi showing strong growth [34][36] - The company has a rich pipeline of innovative drugs, including PD-1/VEGF dual antibodies and IL-17 monoclonal antibodies, which are expected to contribute to future revenue growth [37][38] - The forecast for the company's revenue and net profit from 2024 to 2026 indicates steady growth, with projected net profits of 17.69 billion yuan in 2024, increasing to 23.04 billion yuan by 2026 [38]

证券研究报告 公用事业 行业定期报告 查浩 SAC：S1350524060004 zhahao@huayuanstock.com 刘晓宁 SAC：S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 邹佩轩 SAC：S1350524070004 zoupeixuan01@huayuanstock.com 戴映炘 SAC：S1350524080002 daiyingxin@huayuanstock.com 大唐与国能集团同日换帅 电价新政利好运营商 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——公用事业 2025 年第 7 周周报（20250216） 投资要点： （四）电力交易：交易规模持续扩大、交易效益重要性提升、交易完整性和复杂度提高都有 利于电力交易开展，分布式入市则带动聚合商模式发展。 风险提示：政策推进不及预期、新能源投资放缓、用电量增长不及预期等 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 证券分析师 一、大唐集团、国家能源集团同日换帅，期待行业继续高质量发展。2 月 14 日，大唐集团、 国家能源集团分别召开中层以上管理人员大会，中组部相关负责人宣布职务调整，大唐集团 董事长、党 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook based on its robust operational performance and expansion plans in lower-tier cities [5][8]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leading player in the Western fast-food sector in China, with a strong brand presence through its subsidiaries, including KFC and Pizza Hut. It aims to expand its store count to 20,000 by 2026, focusing on lower-tier cities to capture market share [7][10]. - The company has demonstrated strong operational cash flow and is committed to enhancing shareholder returns, with a target of $4.5 billion in shareholder returns from 2024 to 2026 [7][35]. - The report highlights the company's strategic focus on expanding its KFC and Pizza Hut brands, leveraging their established market presence and adapting to consumer preferences in lower-tier cities [10][30]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, Yum China, has a rich history, being the first foreign fast-food brand to enter the Chinese market with KFC in 1987 and Pizza Hut in 1990. It operates multiple brands, including Taco Bell and Lavazza, and has a significant number of stores across various cities [19][21]. - The governance structure is market-oriented, with major shareholders being institutional investors, ensuring a clear and professional management approach [24][25]. Industry Analysis - The Western fast-food industry in China is characterized by high chain rates and market concentration, with significant growth potential in lower-tier cities. The market size is projected to reach 330 billion yuan by 2025 [42][44]. - Consumer preferences are shifting towards affordable dining options, with a notable increase in the frequency of visits to fast-food outlets, particularly in lower-tier cities [48][52]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve revenues of $11.99 billion in 2025, with a projected net profit of $959.51 million, reflecting a growth rate of 5.3% [6][8]. - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is lower than that of comparable companies, indicating potential for valuation upside as the company expands its footprint in the fast-food sector [8][10].

Investment Rating - Investment rating: Positive (maintained) [3] Core Viewpoints - The leadership changes at Datang Group and State Energy Group are expected to drive high-quality development in the industry [4][8] - The new mechanism electricity pricing policy has mixed market interpretations, but the report remains optimistic about the value of the wind power industry chain [4][20] Summary by Sections Leadership Changes - On February 14, Datang Group and State Energy Group held management meetings to announce leadership changes, with Zou Lei appointed as the chairman of State Energy Group and Lv Jun taking over as chairman of Datang Group [4][8] - State Energy Group ranks first among the five major power groups in terms of installed capacity, with a total installed capacity of approximately 350 million kilowatts, of which renewable energy accounts for over 40% [8][9] Mechanism Electricity Pricing Policy - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued a notice on February 9 to promote the market-oriented reform of renewable energy pricing [20] - The report highlights that while some view the new policy as a negative for project profitability, it is expected to stabilize green electricity operations and enhance project valuations [24][25] - Wind power is favored over solar power due to its higher market price and better operational conditions [27] Upstream Manufacturing Sector - The market-oriented pricing mechanism is expected to benefit leading manufacturers in the wind power sector, as it encourages the exit of less competitive firms [32] - The report suggests that the removal of non-market pricing will allow for better pricing strategies and improved profit margins for top manufacturers [32][33] Electricity Trading - The report anticipates an increase in trading scale and complexity, which will benefit the electricity trading sector [34] - The transition to market electricity pricing is expected to enhance the profitability of renewable energy operations and improve overall market efficiency [34] Investment Recommendations - For green electricity operators, the report recommends focusing on undervalued wind power operators and companies with strong management capabilities, such as Longyuan Power and China General Nuclear Power [35] - For wind power manufacturers, the report suggests monitoring leading firms like Goldwind Technology and Sany Renewable Energy [35] - The report also highlights the importance of the electricity trading sector and recommends companies like Guoneng Rixin and Langxin Group [35]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the construction decoration industry is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The construction sector is expected to see a market recovery driven by the resumption of work after the Spring Festival, with historical data indicating that the sector has achieved positive excess returns in 7 out of the last 10 trading days following the holiday from 2015 to 2024 [4][9] - As of February 14, 2025, the construction sector has recorded a cumulative increase of 3.3%, outperforming the CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite Index by 0.6% and 0.5% respectively [4][9] - The resumption of construction projects is accelerating, supported by ongoing policy measures, which is anticipated to enhance market performance [4][9] Summary by Sections Weekly Insights - The construction sector's performance is significantly influenced by the Spring Festival, with a historical trend of positive returns post-holiday [4][9] - As of February 13, 2025, the national construction site resumption rate is 23.5%, with labor utilization at 27.5% and funding availability at 35.0% [12][13] - The Eastern China region shows the fastest recovery, exceeding the national average resumption rate by 13 percentage points [12][13] Infrastructure Data Tracking - The issuance of special bonds this week reached 152.41 billion, with a cumulative issuance of 711.50 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 79.92% [15] - Urban investment bonds issued this week totaled 49.38 billion, with a net financing amount of 33.18 billion, resulting in a cumulative net financing deficit of 61.94 billion [15] Industry News Summary - In January 2025, national railway fixed asset investment reached 43.9 billion, marking a year-on-year growth of 3.7%, indicating a strong start for railway construction [17] Company Dynamics Summary - Several construction-related companies announced new contracts, including a 3.5 billion project in Laos and a 3.137 billion contract in Zhengzhou [18][19] - China Metallurgical Group reported a new contract amount of 87.79 billion in January 2025, with a notable increase in overseas contracts [19] Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.30%, while the construction decoration index increased by 1.28% during the same period [23] - A total of 103 construction stocks saw gains, with the top five performers showing increases of over 18% [23]