Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The shipping industry is experiencing a shift towards LNG dual-fuel vessels, with Maersk placing new orders due to the high costs and supply constraints of green methanol [5] - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index decreased by 9.3% to 1595 points, indicating a decline in shipping rates [6] - Oil tanker rates have increased, with the BDTI index rising by 2.4% to 919 points, reflecting a positive trend in oil transportation [6] - The BDI index for bulk shipping rose by 10.3% to 873 points, indicating a recovery in the bulk shipping market [7] - The logistics sector is showing resilience, with significant increases in freight volumes and operational efficiency during the recent monitoring period [10] Summary by Sections Shipping Vessels - Maersk is increasing orders for LNG dual-fuel vessels, transitioning from methanol due to supply and cost issues [5] - The BDTI index for oil transportation rose by 2.4%, while the BCTI index for refined oil transportation increased by 10.8% [6][49] - The BDI index for bulk shipping increased by 10.3%, indicating a positive trend in the bulk shipping market [7][49] Air Transportation - The air travel sector is expected to benefit from macroeconomic recovery, with demand projected to rise [13] - The overall passenger load factor for major airlines was 81.83%, showing a slight decrease from the previous month [41] Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is experiencing robust demand, with major companies showing varying growth rates in package volumes [11][25] - The overall pricing for express services is at historical low levels, limiting further downside [13] Logistics Supply Chain - The logistics sector is undergoing a transformation, with companies like Shenzhen International expected to see performance improvements due to strategic upgrades [13] - The competition in the logistics market is easing, providing opportunities for companies like DeBang and AnNeng to improve profitability [13]

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the industry [2] Core Insights - The report highlights that the recent geopolitical developments, particularly Trump's statements regarding nuclear disarmament, have led to market concerns about uranium supply, resulting in a decline in uranium prices. However, it is believed that the market's reaction may be overblown, as the likelihood of large-scale nuclear disarmament is low in the current global political landscape. The long-term supply-demand dynamics for natural uranium remain unchanged, indicating a continued shortage [4][15] - Cameco's Q4 2024 performance showed a production increase of 33% year-on-year, with an average selling price of $58.34 per pound, up 17% year-on-year. The company expects a slight reduction in uranium production for 2025 [17] Summary by Sections Section 1: Market Performance - The Chinese technology sector continued its upward trend, with the Hang Seng Tech Index rising by 6.0% during the week [7] - The top five gainers in the technology sector included Huahong Semiconductor (+57%), Weishi Jiajie (+35%), and Supermicro (+17%) [9] Section 2: Web3 and Cryptocurrency Market - The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies increased to $3.24 trillion, up from $3.20 trillion the previous week [20] - The cryptocurrency market sentiment is currently neutral, with a fear and greed index of 43 [22] - The report notes significant outflows from cryptocurrency ETFs, totaling $553 million for the week [26] Section 3: Important Events - Upcoming earnings reports include Nvidia on February 26 and NUSCALE POWER on February 27 [19] - The report mentions the impact of recent events, including the FTX repayment to customers and security breaches at Bybit, which have contributed to market volatility [30]

行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 02 月 23 日 刘闯 SAC：S1350524030002 liuchuang@huayuanstock.com 李强 SAC：S1350524040001 liqiang01@huayuanstock.com 林海霖 SAC：S1350524050002 linhailin@huayuanstock.com 孙洁玲 SAC：S1350524120004 sunjieling@huayuanstock.com 创新药再迎利好，有望加速提升全球地位 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——医药行业周报（25/2/17-25/2/21） 投资要点： 证券研究报告 医药生物 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 第 3页/ 共 13页 风险提示：行业竞争加剧风险，政策变化风险，行业需求不及预期风险。 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 证券分析师 本周医药市场表现分析：2 月 17 日至 2 月 21 日，沪深 300 指数上涨 1.00%；医药生物(申 万)指数上涨 1.88%，相对沪深 300 指数超额收益为 0.87%。本周医药板块整体表现强 劲， ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - Copper prices are expected to enter a wide range of fluctuations, while alumina prices have temporarily stopped declining. The copper market is currently in a weak demand season, with fluctuations driven mainly by macroeconomic factors. The best allocation timing for the copper sector is when the fundamentals and macro factors resonate, which may require waiting until demand improves in the second quarter [5][4] - Alumina prices have stopped declining due to minor production cuts and increased export demand, but the supply-demand balance remains in surplus, indicating potential for further price declines. The aluminum sector is expected to face a shortage this year, providing upward price potential [5] - Lithium prices are experiencing weak fluctuations as supply recovers post-holiday, with a focus on demand guidance in the upcoming peak season. The overall lithium market is expected to see a narrowing of surplus throughout the year [5] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - Domestic and international macroeconomic indicators show slight increases in initial jobless claims in the U.S. and a lower-than-expected consumer confidence index [12] 2. Market Performance - The overall performance of the non-ferrous metals sector shows a decline of 1.52%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.48 percentage points, ranking 26th among the Shenwan sectors [15][16] 3. Valuation Changes - The PE_TTM for the non-ferrous metals sector is 19.66, with a slight increase of 0.12 from the previous week. The PB_LF is 2.13, also showing a minor increase of 0.01 [20][21] 4. Industrial Metals Copper - Copper prices have decreased by 1.37% to 77,020 CNY/ton, with inventories increasing significantly [25] Aluminum - Aluminum prices have increased by 1.29% to 20,875 CNY/ton, with a notable rise in inventories [31] Lead and Zinc - Lead prices have seen a slight increase, while zinc prices have also risen, with varying inventory levels [36] Tin and Nickel - Tin prices have increased, while nickel prices have shown mixed results, with profitability metrics reflecting the current market conditions [42] 5. Energy Metals Lithium - Lithium carbonate prices have decreased slightly to 76,150 CNY/ton, with mixed performance in profitability metrics for lithium production [49]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company is expected to maintain high growth in same-store sales due to strong brand momentum [4] - The company anticipates a significant increase in net profit for 2024, with projections of 1.46 to 1.5 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of 236% to 260% [6] - The company's expansion strategy includes opening 7 new stores and optimizing 4 existing stores, contributing to revenue growth [6] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2022: 1,294.8 million RMB - 2023: 3,180.2 million RMB (growth of 145.6%) - 2024E: 8,907.4 million RMB (growth of 180.1%) - 2025E: 14,780.0 million RMB (growth of 65.9%) - 2026E: 19,342.6 million RMB (growth of 30.9%) [5] - Net profit projections are as follows: - 2022: 94.5 million RMB - 2023: 416.3 million RMB (growth of 340.4%) - 2024E: 1,459.8 million RMB (growth of 250.7%) - 2025E: 2,524.5 million RMB (growth of 72.9%) - 2026E: 3,466.3 million RMB (growth of 37.3%) [5] - Earnings per share (EPS) projections: - 2023: 3.0 RMB - 2024E: 8.7 RMB - 2025E: 15.0 RMB - 2026E: 20.6 RMB [5] Market Position and Strategy - The company has a strong market presence with 38 stores as of February 2025, primarily located in first-tier cities [6] - The company targets high-net-worth consumers, with a focus on premium locations that enhance brand visibility [6] - The pricing strategy includes a fixed-price model, with recent adjustments to increase product margins and brand recognition [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the media industry [1] Core Insights - The AI companionship market is expected to experience significant growth, driven by technological advancements and increasing market demand, marking a turning point in 2025 [8][20] - The global market for "AI + emotional companionship" is projected to expand 2300-5000 times, reaching between $70 billion and $150 billion, with a CAGR of 200%-236% [18][20] - The report highlights the increasing consumer demand for emotional companionship, particularly among younger demographics, as they prioritize quality and emotional value in their spending [25][30] Summary by Sections 1. Why Focus on AI Companionship Now? - The AI companionship market is gaining traction due to advancements in technology and rising consumer demand for emotional support [8][20] 2. Exploring the Drivers of AI Companionship Development - The market is projected to grow significantly, with the global revenue for AI companionship expected to rise from $30 million to between $70 billion and $150 billion [18][20] - Increased alone time among consumers has created a user base for AI companionship applications, with average daily alone time in the U.S. rising from 5.3 hours in 2003 to 7.4 hours in 2022 [20] 3. AI + Companion Apps Leading to More Realistic Interactions - AI emotional companionship software saw rapid growth in Q3 2024, with several products achieving significant download increases [36][39] - The report lists top AI companionship apps, highlighting their features and download statistics, indicating a growing interest in this sector [36][39] 4. AI + Hardware as Diverse Carriers for Companionship - Various AI companionship products showcased at CES 2025, including robots and interactive toys, indicate a diverse market landscape [9][10] 5. Related Companies Overview - The report identifies key players in the AI companionship market, including ByteDance and its products like "Cici AI" and "EVE," which focus on emotional engagement and user interaction [50][57] 6. Market Potential for Emotional Companionship Toys - The toy market, particularly in China, shows significant potential for growth, with emotional companionship toys becoming increasingly popular among consumers [26][27]

证券研究报告 晨会 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 02 月 21 日 投资要点： 资料来源：聚源，华源证券研究所，截至 2025 年 2 月 20 日 华源晨会精粹 交运 美对华船舶敌意渐起，中国造船业大而不倒——航运船舶行业系列（八）：美 国对中国海事、造船业敌意渐起。2025 年 1 月 16 日，美国发布 301 调查报告，指 责中国试图主导海事、物流和造船业，认为这压制了美国商业，并暗示将采取反制 措施。从海运贸易角度看，美国是资源出口（气油煤粮）与消费品进口（集装箱货、 汽车）的主要地区，涉美主要船型多为中大型船舶。美国各货种海运贸易量占比基 本低于非华现有运力全球占比及非华新造船全球占比。我们认为若美国对华造船业 采取极端措施，中短期来看，非华现有运力充分满足美国海运贸易需求；长期来看， 美国海运贸易在气运与车运上较高的占比将限制中国造船业在相关领域的发展潜 力，但不会对中国造船业的现有地位产生任何威胁。全球船队老龄化叠加绿色转型 期，绿色更新造船需求持续释放，需要中国造船业的庞大产能。看好中国造船产业 链，建议关注中国船舶、中国动力、中船防务、松发股份。 风险提示：美国对华制裁激进、特 ...

Group 1: Sichuan Road and Bridge (600039.SH) - The company has achieved a cumulative stock price increase of 267.43% from January 2, 2020, to January 3, 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 and the Shenwan Construction Decoration Index by 275.42% and 277.34% respectively, driven by three key phases: significant growth in revenue and net profit from 2020 to 2021, continuous share buybacks and increased dividend payouts from 2021 to April 2023, and new leadership since July 2024 [2][6][8] - The infrastructure investment demand in Sichuan remains strong, with public road investment growing from 1239.8 billion in 2016 to 2555.7 billion in 2023, reflecting a CAGR of 10.89%, supported by a healthy fiscal structure and strong debt repayment capacity [7][8] - The company has optimized its shareholding structure, increasing the stake in its profitable road and bridge mining segment from 60% to 64%, which is expected to enhance operational efficiency and reduce pressure from non-core businesses [8][6] Group 2: Zhongwei Company (688012.SH) - Zhongwei Company is a leading domestic integrated circuit equipment manufacturer, focusing on high-end semiconductor and general semiconductor equipment, with a product portfolio that includes CCP and ICP etching equipment [11][12] - The company has seen significant growth in its etching equipment, with over 700 units shipped in the first half of 2024, surpassing the total shipments for 2023, and is expected to achieve 72.76 billion in sales for etching equipment in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 54.71% [12][14] - The company has maintained a high level of R&D investment, with a projected 2024 R&D expenditure of 24.50 billion, representing 27.03% of expected revenue, which supports its continuous growth in the semiconductor equipment market [14][16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the aviation industry [3] Core Insights - The aviation industry is experiencing a structural change in demand, with a significant recovery in passenger traffic expected to surpass 2019 levels by 2024. However, the supply-demand mismatch is leading to increased volatility in performance [4][9] - The year 2025 is projected to be a turning point for the supply-demand gap, with demand growth expected to exceed supply growth for the first time since 2020, leading to improved profitability in the industry [4][56] Summary by Sections 1. Demand Structure Changes - The aviation industry has recovered to 2019 passenger traffic levels by 2024 after a severe downturn from 2020 to 2022. The demand structure has changed significantly, with seasonal effects becoming more pronounced [4][9] - Monthly passenger traffic in 2024 is expected to peak in August with a year-on-year increase of 19.1% and drop to a low of 5.3% in April [4] 2. Supply Constraints - Aircraft deliveries from Boeing and Airbus in 2024 are projected to be 348 and 766 units, respectively, which are only 43% and 89% of their historical peaks [4][35] - The aging domestic fleet and changes in fleet management strategies add uncertainty to future supply expansion [4][35] 3. Supply-Demand Gap Reversal - In 2025, the supply-demand gap is expected to turn positive for the first time since 2020, with demand growth projected to exceed supply growth by 0.4% [4][56] - The report anticipates that the supply-demand gap will expand to 4-5% from 2026 to 2029, leading to improved industry profitability [4][81] 4. Investment Analysis - The aviation industry has transitioned from a high-growth phase (pre-2019) to a recovery phase (2023-2024) and is expected to enter a new cycle driven by supply dynamics starting in 2025 [4][56] - Historical analysis shows a strong correlation between profit margins and the supply-demand growth differential, indicating a high degree of certainty in the current cycle [4][66] 5. International Route Dynamics - The recovery of international routes has been uneven, with North America and East Asia showing lower recovery rates compared to other regions [19] - The number of foreign airlines operating in China has decreased, with 29 foreign carriers exiting the market since 2019 [20] 6. Fleet Management Challenges - The average age of the fleet has increased, leading to a potential rise in retirement rates, which could further constrain supply [50][52] - The report highlights that the operational challenges posed by new engine technologies may impact the delivery of new aircraft [48]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for investment [4][7][44]. Core Views - The company has a solid growth foundation in the men's apparel sector, with its core brands, Baoxini and HAZZYS, expected to maintain steady growth. Additionally, other brands like LAFUMA and Kaimiqi are anticipated to open up long-term growth opportunities [6][7][40]. - The company's multi-brand strategy effectively broadens its customer base and supports stable development, with a focus on enhancing brand strength and channel efficiency [6][9][29]. Financial Performance and Forecast - Revenue and profit projections for the company are as follows: - Revenue (in million RMB): 2022: 4,313; 2023: 5,254; 2024E: 5,194; 2025E: 5,656; 2026E: 6,260, with growth rates of -3.11%, 21.82%, -1.14%, 8.91%, and 10.68% respectively [5][44]. - Net profit (in million RMB): 2022: 459; 2023: 698; 2024E: 575; 2025E: 661; 2026E: 738, with growth rates of -1.20%, 52.11%, -17.62%, 15.02%, and 11.58% respectively [5][44]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 11.66% in 2022, increasing to 14.21% by 2026 [5]. Brand and Market Position - Baoxini and HAZZYS are the company's core brands, contributing nearly 70% of total revenue. As of the first half of 2024, their revenue shares are 32.02% and 35.58% respectively, with HAZZYS showing significant growth [16][26]. - The company has a well-established brand matrix, including mature brands like Baoxini and HAZZYS, as well as rapidly developing brands like LAFUMA and Kaimiqi, which enhance its market competitiveness [6][13]. Channel Development - The company has seen a steady increase in its direct sales channel, which accounted for 42% of revenue as of the first half of 2024, with a gross margin returning to over 78% [36][42]. - The number of offline stores has been stable, with a total of 1,772 stores as of the first half of 2024, including 816 direct stores and 956 franchise stores [38][39]. Competitive Positioning - The company is positioned favorably against comparable firms in the men's apparel sector, with its valuation being relatively low compared to peers like Jiumuwang and Biyinlefen [7][44]. - The report highlights the company's competitive advantages, including its multi-brand operation, extensive channel coverage, and focus on product development [7][44].