Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry or specific companies [3]. Core Insights - The earnings expectation term structure factor has historically performed well and exhibits high stability [9][11]. - The "synthetic momentum ff" factor, which combines the earnings expectation term structure momentum factor with traditional analyst forecast adjustment factors, shows improved performance, offering both high returns and stability [11]. - In May 2025, the selected stock portfolios based on the "synthetic momentum ff" factor underperformed the benchmark in the CSI 300, CSI 800, and CSI 1000 indices, with excess returns of -0.15%, -0.32%, and -0.32% respectively, while the CSI 500 portfolio outperformed with an excess return of 0.57% [2][14]. - For the first five months of 2025, the stock portfolios in the CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 800, and CSI 1000 indices had returns of -1.32%, 0.38%, -0.25%, and 3.45% respectively, with excess returns of 1.09%, 1.33%, 1.79%, and 2.29%, all outperforming their benchmarks [2][14]. Summary by Sections 1. Earnings Expectation Term Structure Factor - Analysts predict future earnings for listed companies, and the trend of these earnings expectations over the years is termed the earnings expectation term structure [7]. - This structure can be categorized into three basic forms: upward sloping, flat, and downward sloping, which represent optimistic, neutral, and pessimistic analyst expectations respectively [7]. 2. Stock Selection Performance - Stock portfolios were constructed by selecting the top 50, 50, 100, and 100 stocks based on the "synthetic momentum ff" factor from the CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 800, and CSI 1000 indices [14]. - The historical performance of these portfolios has been strong, with specific performance metrics noted for May 2025 and the first five months of the year [2][14].

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [3] Core Views - The tungsten price has increased week-on-week due to a tight supply of upstream raw materials, which is expected to persist in the short term [12][21] - Nickel prices have decreased, with smelters continuing to face losses; however, the approval of increased nickel mining quotas in Indonesia may enhance supply expectations for 2025 [13][24] - Cobalt prices are under pressure, but a significant reduction in global supply from the Democratic Republic of Congo could support prices in the near future [28][25] - Antimony prices have declined, but the domestic supply remains tight, with potential for price convergence with high overseas prices if exports resume [29][33] - Lithium prices are expected to remain under pressure due to oversupply, despite some recovery in purchasing sentiment from downstream manufacturers [7][8] - Rare earth prices are showing strength, particularly for praseodymium and neodymium, driven by export controls and supply constraints [9][14] Summary by Sections Nickel Industry - As of May 30, LME nickel settled at $15,150.00 per ton, down 0.36% from May 23, with total LME nickel inventory increasing by 0.37% to 199,380 tons [21] - Domestic nickel prices are under pressure due to weak demand from stainless steel manufacturers and potential export bans from the Philippines [21][24] Cobalt Industry - As of May 30, electrolytic cobalt was priced at 234,900 yuan per ton, down 0.82% from May 23, with overall weak demand from downstream manufacturers [25][28] - The supply situation is expected to tighten significantly due to export restrictions from the Democratic Republic of Congo [28] Antimony Industry - Domestic antimony ingot prices fell to 217,500 yuan per ton as of May 29, down 2.25% from May 23, with ongoing supply tightness [29][31] - Export controls from China may lead to a significant price increase in overseas markets [29][33] Lithium Industry - Battery-grade lithium carbonate averaged 60,700 yuan per ton as of May 30, down 3.70% from May 23, with inventory levels indicating a slight decrease [7][8] - The market is expected to remain weak due to oversupply and declining lithium ore prices [8] Rare Earth Industry - Prices for praseodymium and neodymium have increased, with praseodymium oxide averaging 450,300 yuan per ton, up 0.88% from May 23 [9][14] - Export controls from China are likely to tighten supply in overseas markets, supporting price increases [9][14] Tungsten Industry - As of May 30, white tungsten concentrate was priced at 167,500 yuan per ton, up 2.45% from May 23, driven by tight raw material supply [12][21] - The first batch of tungsten mining quotas for 2025 has been reduced, further tightening supply expectations [12][21]

Group 1: Market Performance - Overseas equity indices mostly rose, with the German DAX reaching a new high during the week[1] - The Nasdaq increased by 2.01% in May, leading other asset classes with a monthly gain of 9.56%[1] - A-shares experienced a narrow consolidation with the CSI 1000 rising by 0.62%[1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for May was reported at 49.5%, a month-on-month increase of 0.5 percentage points[2] - The non-manufacturing business activity index was at 50.3%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points[2] - Japan's broad CPI reached 3.6% in March 2025, indicating upward inflation pressure[31] Group 3: Trade and Tariff Developments - The U.S. steel tariff was raised from 25% to 50%, effective June 4, 2025[26] - The U.S. International Trade Court ruled that Trump's tariffs were illegal, but the appellate court temporarily reinstated them[23] - OPEC+ agreed to increase oil supply by 411,000 barrels per day in July, marking the third consecutive increase[40] Group 4: Bond Market Trends - U.S. 10-year Treasury yields fluctuated, with a recent drop of 10 basis points to 4.410%[10] - Japanese long-term bond yields have been rising due to increased inflation expectations and a tightening monetary policy[31] - Domestic bond rates remained stable, with slight declines in long-term yields observed[1]

Investment Rating - The industry rating for the defense and military industry is "Recommended" [1] Core Viewpoints - The successful recovery of the rocket marks a significant breakthrough from 0 to 1, indicating a dual inflection point of "technological breakthrough" and "scale explosion" in China's commercial aerospace sector [4] - The global commercial aerospace sector is accelerating the development of reusable rockets and low-orbit satellite constellations, with various applications such as satellite direct connection for mobile phones and cars, computing satellites, and space broadband emerging [4][9] - The expansion of satellite communication frequency spectrum by the FCC is expected to trigger a new round of military upgrades and address the spectrum scarcity issue faced by the commercial aerospace and satellite internet industries [7][8] Summary by Sections Events - Event 1: Arrow Technology's "Yuanhang No. 1" rocket successfully completed China's first flight test for "liquid oxygen methane + stainless steel + offshore soft landing recovery," marking a major breakthrough in reusable technology [2] - Event 2: Geely plans to launch multiple satellites, including the "Qianli Haohan" satellite, to achieve global real-time satellite communication services [2] - Event 3: China Telecom's satellite communication division signed a cooperation agreement with Laos for the overseas commercialization of satellite communication technology [3] - Event 4: The FCC announced a significant expansion of available satellite communication frequency spectrum to support the development of low-orbit satellites and next-generation satellite broadband services [3] Reusable Rockets - Reusable liquid rockets are transforming from "consumables" to "durable tools," enabling large-scale launches and significantly reducing costs [5] - The cost of a single launch can be reduced from "hundreds of millions" to "tens of millions," a decrease of 70% compared to traditional expendable rockets [5] - Multiple commercial aerospace companies are set to conduct the first flights of reusable rockets in 2025, including Zhuque-3 and Tianlong-3 [5][6] Spectrum Resources - The scarcity of satellite frequency resources has led to conflicts among countries, with the FCC's expansion of satellite communication frequency spectrum aimed at alleviating this issue [7][8] - The FCC's consultation on using underutilized frequency bands is expected to support the needs of large-scale satellite constellation systems like SpaceX's Starlink [8] Satellite Applications - The value of satellite direct connection services is immense, with applications such as satellite direct connection for mobile phones and cars becoming a reality [9] - Huawei's "Space Broadband" plan aims to establish a satellite network for global high-speed data transmission, with a target of achieving 100Gbps+ interstellar optical internet by 2030 [10] - Geely's satellite network will support intelligent safety driving systems, ensuring high-precision positioning even in remote areas [10] Investment Recommendations - Focus on the progress of reusable rockets and satellite constellation networking, particularly breakthroughs in applications like satellite direct connection for mobile phones and cars [11] - Beneficiary companies include Putian Technology, Shanghai Huanxun, Zhenlei Technology, and China Satellite Communications [11][12][13]

- The report introduces the "Earnings Expectation Term Structure Factor" which measures the trend of analysts' earnings forecasts over future years. This trend can be upward, flat, or downward, representing optimistic, neutral, or pessimistic expectations, respectively. The slope of the trend line is used to quantify these expectations[1][7] - The "Momentum ff" factor, derived from the Earnings Expectation Term Structure, is combined with the traditional analyst expectation revision factor to create the "Composite Momentum ff" factor. This composite factor shows improved performance, combining high returns with stability[1][11] - The historical performance of the Earnings Expectation Term Structure factor has been good, with high stability in its trend[1][9] - The report evaluates the performance of stock selection portfolios based on the "Composite Momentum ff" factor. Portfolios are constructed by selecting the top-ranked stocks within the CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 800, and CSI 1000 indices. The historical performance of these portfolios has been favorable[2][14] - In May 2025, the CSI 300, CSI 800, and CSI 1000 stock selection portfolios underperformed their benchmarks, with excess returns of -0.15%, -0.32%, and -0.32%, respectively. The CSI 500 stock selection portfolio outperformed its benchmark with an excess return of 0.57%[2][14] - For the first five months of 2025, the CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 800, and CSI 1000 stock selection portfolios had returns of -1.32%, 0.38%, -0.25%, and 3.45%, respectively. The excess returns over their respective benchmarks were 1.09%, 1.33%, 1.79%, and 2.29%, respectively, all outperforming their benchmarks[2][14] Factor and Model Construction - **Earnings Expectation Term Structure Factor** - **Construction Idea**: Measures the trend of analysts' earnings forecasts over future years, represented by the slope of the trend line[1][7] - **Construction Process**: - Plot earnings forecast data on the Y-axis and annual variables on the X-axis - Identify the trend as upward, flat, or downward - Use the slope to quantify the trend, representing optimistic, neutral, or pessimistic expectations[1][7] - **Evaluation**: The factor has shown good historical performance with high stability[1][9] - **Composite Momentum ff Factor** - **Construction Idea**: Combines the Earnings Expectation Term Structure "Momentum ff" factor with the traditional analyst expectation revision factor to enhance performance[1][11] - **Construction Process**: - Combine the "Momentum ff" factor with the traditional analyst expectation revision factor - Evaluate the combined factor for improved performance and stability[1][11] - **Evaluation**: The composite factor shows improved performance, combining high returns with stability[1][11] Backtest Results - **Earnings Expectation Term Structure Factor** - **Cumulative IC**: Historical performance has been good with high stability[1][9] - **Composite Momentum ff Factor** - **Cumulative IC**: Shows improved performance and stability compared to traditional factors[1][11] Portfolio Performance - **CSI 300 Stock Selection Portfolio** - **May 2025 Excess Return**: -0.15%[2][14] - **First 5 Months of 2025 Return**: -1.32%[2][14] - **First 5 Months of 2025 Excess Return**: 1.09%[2][14] - **CSI 500 Stock Selection Portfolio** - **May 2025 Excess Return**: 0.57%[2][14] - **First 5 Months of 2025 Return**: 0.38%[2][14] - **First 5 Months of 2025 Excess Return**: 1.33%[2][14] - **CSI 800 Stock Selection Portfolio** - **May 2025 Excess Return**: -0.32%[2][14] - **First 5 Months of 2025 Return**: -0.25%[2][14] - **First 5 Months of 2025 Excess Return**: 1.79%[2][14] - **CSI 1000 Stock Selection Portfolio** - **May 2025 Excess Return**: -0.32%[2][14] - **First 5 Months of 2025 Return**: 3.45%[2][14] - **First 5 Months of 2025 Excess Return**: 2.29%[2][14]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Recommended" [5] Core Views - The report highlights the impact of recent changes in US tariff policies on precious metals, leading to a decline in gold and silver prices [1][4] - The overall sentiment in the basic metals market is cautious, with fluctuations in prices due to macroeconomic uncertainties and supply chain issues [8][11] - The report emphasizes the potential for long-term price increases in copper and aluminum due to ongoing supply constraints and supportive macro policies [10][18] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - COMEX gold price decreased by 1.33% to $3,313.10 per ounce, while COMEX silver fell by 1.68% to $33.08 per ounce [1][28] - SPDR gold ETF holdings increased by 248,838.84 troy ounces, indicating a rise in investor interest [1][28] - The US International Trade Court's ruling has temporarily halted certain tariffs, affecting market dynamics for gold and silver [4][48] Basic Metals - LME copper price dropped by 1.22% to $9,497.00 per ton, and aluminum fell by 0.71% to $2,448.50 per ton [8][57] - SHFE copper price decreased by 0.24% to ¥77,600.00 per ton, while aluminum fell by 0.42% to ¥20,070.00 per ton [8][57] - The report notes a significant decline in copper imports, with April figures showing a 19.06% decrease month-on-month [9][83] Copper - China's electrolytic copper production in April was 1,125,700 tons, a month-on-month increase of 0.36% [9][83] - The report mentions a tightening supply situation, with Antofagasta proposing negative processing fees in negotiations with Chinese smelters [10][19] - The anticipated long-term demand from infrastructure and electric vehicle sectors is expected to support copper prices [10][19] Aluminum - The report indicates that aluminum prices are under pressure due to macroeconomic uncertainties, with a slight decrease in production rates [11][12] - The inventory levels for aluminum have decreased, suggesting a tightening supply [11][12] - Future demand from sectors like electric vehicles and power generation is expected to stabilize aluminum prices [11][12] Zinc and Lead - Zinc prices are facing downward pressure due to tariff uncertainties, although inventory reductions provide slight support [13][14] - Lead consumption is currently in a seasonal downturn, with concerns over raw material supply for recycled lead [14][14] Small Metals - Magnesium prices have retreated as downstream demand remains cautious [15] - Molybdenum prices have increased due to tight raw material supplies, while vanadium prices are under pressure from weak demand [16][17]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company experienced a revenue decline in Q1 2025, attributed to reduced low-price gift box promotions during the Spring Festival, a decrease in traditional supermarket sales, and a high revenue base from the same period last year [4] - Despite the challenges, the company has shown strong growth in its comprehensive nut and bean series, with significant contributions from overseas markets [3][9] - The company is expected to improve its profit margins gradually as overseas market expansion continues and operational efficiencies are realized [8][9] Financial Performance Summary - In FY 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 2.257 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.18%, and a net profit of 376 million yuan, up 14.32% year-on-year [2] - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 504 million yuan, down 13.99% year-on-year, and a net profit of 53 million yuan, down 42.21% year-on-year [2] - The gross profit margin for FY 2024 was 35.46%, which decreased to 34.32% in Q1 2025, reflecting pressure from rising raw material costs and increased expenses [5][7] - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 2.598 billion yuan and 3.032 billion yuan, respectively, and has revised EPS estimates to 4.38 yuan and 5.13 yuan for the same years [10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [1] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 32.33 billion yuan in FY24, representing a year-on-year increase of 247.86%, and a net profit of 294 million yuan, up 453.95% year-on-year [2] - The company is focusing on rapid expansion of its discount retail business, with a significant increase in store numbers and operational efficiency [3][4] - A stock incentive plan for 2025 has been announced, aimed at enhancing the company's growth potential [6][7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In FY24, the company reported a revenue of 32.33 billion yuan, with a net profit of 294 million yuan, and a non-recurring net profit of 258 million yuan, showing substantial growth compared to the previous year [2] - For Q4 of FY24, revenue reached 11.72 billion yuan, with a net profit of 209 million yuan, marking an impressive year-on-year increase of 894.27% [2] Business Expansion - The company has been actively expanding its store network, with a total of 14,196 stores by the end of FY24, having added 9,776 stores during the reporting period [4] - The company has established 50 warehousing centers nationwide, ensuring efficient supply chain management [4] Profitability - The discount retail business achieved a net profit of 858 million yuan in FY24, with a profit margin of 2.70%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.32 percentage points [5] - The company’s profitability is expected to improve further due to the scale effects of its discount retail operations [5] Growth Prospects - The stock incentive plan involves granting approximately 2.21 million restricted shares to 70 core employees, with performance targets set for net profit growth over the next four years [6][7] - Revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised upwards to 53.88 billion yuan and 62.09 billion yuan, respectively, with EPS estimates also increased [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [1] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 3.835 billion yuan in FY24, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.61%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 268 million yuan, up 266.94% year-on-year [2] - The growth in revenue and profit is driven by the rapid expansion of UHT cream products and a recovery in frozen baked goods in Q1 2025 [3][4] - The company has shown initial effects of cost control, leading to an improvement in profit margins [5][6] - The company is expected to continue to release profit elasticity through product and channel expansion, particularly in the UHT cream segment and supermarket channels [7] Financial Performance Summary - In FY24, the company reported revenues of 3.835 billion yuan, with a net profit of 268 million yuan, and a gross margin of 31.5% [8][11] - The company’s revenue forecast for 2025 and 2026 has been adjusted to 4.457 billion yuan and 5.170 billion yuan, respectively, with EPS estimates revised to 1.96 yuan and 2.40 yuan [8][11] - The company’s net profit margin for FY24 was 6.99%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.90 percentage points [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company has shown resilience in its direct sales channels and is focusing on new product development and channel expansion [7][8] - The company experienced a decline in revenue and net profit in FY24, but there are signs of recovery in Q1 FY25 with a slight revenue increase [2][3] - The company is actively investing in R&D and expanding its product lines, particularly in baked goods and frozen prepared dishes, to meet customer demand [7][12] Financial Performance Summary - In FY24, the company achieved revenue of 1.868 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 1.71%, and a net profit of 84 million, down 37.67% [2][10] - The revenue for Q4 FY24 was 504 million, reflecting an 11.93% decline year-on-year, while Q1 FY25 saw revenue of 470 million, a 1.5% increase year-on-year [2] - The gross margin for FY24 was 23.66%, showing a slight decline compared to previous periods, primarily due to price adjustments in staple and snack products [4][6] Expense and Profitability Analysis - The company faced increased selling and administrative expenses, with the selling expense ratio rising significantly in Q1 FY25 due to heightened online promotion efforts [5] - The net profit margin for FY24 was 4.48%, which has been under pressure due to declining gross margins and increased expenses [6] Future Outlook - The company plans to explore C-end business opportunities and diversify sales channels, including e-commerce and traditional retail [12] - There is an expectation of improved performance as the restaurant market recovers and the company's expansion efforts take effect [8] - Revenue forecasts for FY25 and FY26 have been adjusted to 2.030 billion and 2.231 billion, respectively, with EPS estimates revised to 0.97 and 1.07 [9][10]