Industry Rating - The report assigns a "Leading" investment rating to the technology industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector over the next 12 months [1][38]. Core Insights - The technology sector has shown significant stock price recovery, driven by strong demand for advanced processes and memory chips. The MSCI Information Technology Index increased by 9.6% from May 10 to June 9, outperforming the MSCI Global Index, which rose by 5.5% [3]. - Trade uncertainties have eased, contributing to a rebound in global stock markets. The report highlights that the U.S. tech stocks are performing stronger than the broader market, while Hong Kong tech stocks lag behind [3]. - TSMC reported a 40% year-on-year revenue increase in May, indicating sustained demand for AI chips. The report remains optimistic about the long-term development of global AI infrastructure [3]. - Memory chip prices have continued to rise, with DDR4 prices increasing by 22.2% in April and NAND Flash prices up by 34% compared to the end of last year. The report anticipates that memory prices will maintain an upward trend due to supply-side adjustments and increased demand from downstream customers [3]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that despite ongoing trade-related uncertainties, investors have reached a consensus that the worst-case scenario is unlikely to return. It recommends focusing on areas with high certainty, such as AI technology and domestic semiconductor supply chain developments [3][37]. Market Performance - The report provides a comparative analysis of various indices, showing that the technology sector has outperformed other sectors, with significant gains noted in the semiconductor and software industries [5][8]. Company-Specific Insights - TSMC's revenue for May was reported at NT$320.5 billion, reflecting a 40% year-on-year increase, which is attributed to strong AI chip demand. The company is expected to maintain its technological advantage as it moves towards 2nm production in the second half of 2025 [3][32]. - The report also highlights specific stock recommendations, including "Buy" ratings for companies like NVIDIA and AMD, indicating potential upside in their stock prices [37].

Industry Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Leading" investment rating to the technology industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector over the next 12 months [1]. Core Insights - The technology sector has shown significant stock price recovery, driven by strong demand for advanced processes and memory chips [1]. - Trade uncertainties have eased, contributing to a rebound in global stock markets, with the MSCI Information Technology Index rising by 9.6% from May 10 to June 9, outperforming the MSCI Global Index, which increased by 5.5% [3]. - TSMC reported a 40% year-on-year revenue increase in May, indicating sustained demand for AI chips, while storage prices for DRAM and NAND Flash have continued to rise, suggesting ongoing cost pressures in the smartphone and consumer electronics sectors [3][4]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The MSCI Information Technology Index outperformed other sectors, with a notable increase of 9.6% compared to the MSCI Global Index's 5.5% [3]. - TSMC's revenue for May reached 320.5 billion New Taiwan Dollars, reflecting a 40% year-on-year growth, despite an 8% decline from the previous month [3][33]. Market Trends - Memory chip prices have seen significant increases, with DDR4 prices rising by 22.2% from March to April, and NAND Flash prices increasing by 34% compared to the end of last year [3][34]. - The report anticipates that storage prices will continue to rise due to supply-side adjustments and increased demand from downstream customers [3]. Investment Recommendations - Investors are encouraged to focus on areas with high certainty, particularly in AI and domestic semiconductor sectors, as well as potential improvements in automotive and industrial demand [3]. - The report highlights specific companies with buy ratings, including Nvidia, AMD, and TSMC, indicating strong potential for growth in the semiconductor design and foundry sectors [37].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for BYD Company Limited (1211 HK) with a target price of HKD 167.75, indicating a potential upside of 23.7% from the current closing price of HKD 135.60 [1][10]. Core Insights - The report highlights strong sales performance in May, with BYD selling a total of 382,476 vehicles, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.3% and a month-on-month increase of 1.2%. The sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 376,930 units, up 14.1% year-on-year [7]. - BYD continues to lead the global new energy vehicle market, with a significant advantage over competitors, despite a slight decrease in market share in mainland China [7]. - The report emphasizes the robust performance of BYD's core sales networks, with the Dynasty and Ocean series contributing significantly to overall sales [7]. - High-end brands such as Tengshi and Fangchengbao have shown remarkable growth, with Tengshi's sales increasing by 29.3% year-on-year [7]. - Export sales reached a record high, with overseas sales of new energy vehicles totaling 89,047 units, a year-on-year increase of 133.6%, contributing to 23% of total sales [7]. - The report projects continued growth for BYD, driven by its competitive advantages in scale, technology, and brand, alongside an expanding high-end brand matrix and overseas production capacity [7]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for BYD are as follows: RMB 602,315 million in 2023, RMB 777,102 million in 2024, and expected to reach RMB 977,249 million in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 42.0% and 29.0% respectively [3][11]. - Net profit is projected to grow from RMB 30,041 million in 2023 to RMB 40,254 million in 2024, and further to RMB 52,460 million in 2025, indicating a significant year-on-year increase of 80.7% and 34.0% respectively [3][11]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to rise from RMB 3.30 in 2023 to RMB 4.42 in 2024, and RMB 5.75 in 2025, showcasing a strong growth trajectory [3][11]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 37.7 in 2023 to 21.6 in 2025, indicating improving valuation metrics as earnings grow [3][11]. Market Position - BYD's market capitalization stands at approximately HKD 1,683,750.78 million, with a year-to-date price change of 52.59% [6]. - The stock has shown resilience with a 52-week high of HKD 155.07 and a low of HKD 69.20, reflecting strong investor interest and market confidence [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for BYD Company Limited (1211 HK) with a target price of HKD 167.75, indicating a potential upside of 23.7% from the current closing price of HKD 135.60 [1][10]. Core Insights - The report highlights strong sales performance in May, with BYD selling a total of 382,476 vehicles, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.3% and a month-on-month increase of 1.2%. The sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 376,930 units, up 14.1% year-on-year [7]. - BYD continues to lead the global new energy vehicle market, with a significant advantage over competitors, despite a slight decrease in market share in mainland China [7]. - The report emphasizes the robust performance of BYD's core sales networks, with the Dynasty and Ocean series contributing significantly to overall sales [7]. - High-end brands such as Tengshi and Fangchengbao have shown remarkable growth, with Tengshi's sales increasing by 29.3% year-on-year [7]. - Export sales reached a record high, with overseas sales of new energy vehicles totaling 89,047 units, a year-on-year increase of 133.6%, driven by expansion in Southeast Asia, Europe, and South America [7]. - The report projects continued growth for BYD, supported by its competitive advantages in scale, technology, and brand, as well as the expansion of its high-end brand matrix and overseas production capacity [7]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for BYD are as follows: RMB 602,315 million in 2023, RMB 777,102 million in 2024, and expected to reach RMB 977,249 million in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 42.0% in 2023 and 29.0% in 2024 [3][11]. - Net profit is projected to grow from RMB 30,041 million in 2023 to RMB 40,254 million in 2024, and further to RMB 52,460 million in 2025, indicating a significant year-on-year growth of 80.7% in 2023 [3][11]. - The report provides a detailed financial outlook, including earnings per share (EPS) expected to rise from RMB 3.30 in 2023 to RMB 5.75 in 2025, with a corresponding decrease in price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio from 37.7 in 2023 to 21.6 in 2025 [3][11].

交银国际研究 每日晨报 2025 年 6 月 11 日 今日焦点 交银国际 2025 下半年市场展望 潮涌但见新航路 交银国际研究团队 全球宏观再平衡浪潮奔涌，不确定性与新机遇交织并行。于此变局之中， 中国经济锚定自身航向，在秩序重塑中积蓄坚韧动能。我们坚信，于潮 涌之处，方见新航路之开辟。 请点击以下链接阅读各团队的 2025 下半年展望： 全球宏观 – 再平衡 | 汽车行业月报 5 月新能源车渗透率 | 52.9%，预计 6 月车市增速 | 评级: 领先 | | --- | --- | --- | | 平稳 | | | | 陈庆 | angus.chan@bocomgroup.com | | 5 月全国乘用车市场零售 193.2 万辆，同/环比+13.3%/+10.1%；1-5 月乘 用车零售累计同比+9.1%。自主品牌表现优于行业整体，5 月自主品牌零 售 126 万辆，全国零售份额 65.2%。 此报告最后部分的分析师披露、商业关系披露和免责声明为报告的一部分，必须阅读。 下载本公司之研究报告，可从彭博信息：BOCM 或 https://research.bocomgroup.com | 全球主要指数 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Leading" investment rating to the automotive industry, indicating an expectation of attractive performance relative to the benchmark index over the next 12 months [5]. Core Insights - In May, the retail sales of passenger vehicles increased by 13.3% year-on-year, driven by consumer promotion policies, increased subsidies from manufacturers, and supportive financial policies. The total retail sales reached 1.932 million units in May, with a year-to-date growth of 9.1% [5]. - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs) rose to 52.9% in May, with NEV retail sales reaching 1.021 million units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 28.2% [5]. - The export structure is improving, with the EU and Southeast Asia emerging as new high-growth markets. In May, total passenger vehicle exports reached 448,000 units, with NEV exports performing better than traditional fuel vehicles [5]. Summary by Sections Valuation Overview - BYD Co., Ltd. (1211 HK) rated "Buy" with a target price of 503.25, current price 396.60, FY25E EPS of 23.284, and a PE ratio of 15.6 [3]. - Great Wall Motors (2333 HK) rated "Buy" with a target price of 17.36, current price 12.58, FY25E EPS of 1.692, and a PE ratio of 6.8 [3]. - Geely Automobile (175 HK) rated "Buy" with a target price of 22.50, current price 17.56, FY25E EPS of 1.182, and a PE ratio of 13.6 [3]. - Xpeng Motors (9868 HK) rated "Buy" with a target price of 134.69, current price 78.55, FY25E EPS of -0.324, and NA for PE ratio [3]. - NIO Inc. (9866 HK) rated "Buy" with a target price of 48.96, current price 27.90, FY25E EPS of -7.459, and NA for PE ratio [3]. Market Trends - The report notes that the automotive market is expected to maintain stable growth in June, following a strong performance in May. The report highlights the potential for a price war among passenger vehicles, particularly after BYD initiated a new round of promotions [5]. - The report emphasizes the strong performance of domestic brands, which accounted for 65.2% of the retail market share in May, with a year-on-year increase of 8 percentage points [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on BYD for its intelligent driving and export potential, Xpeng Motors for the launch of new models, and Geely Automobile for internal resource integration following the privatization of its Zeekr brand [5].

交银国际研究 每日晨报 2025 年 6 月 10 日 今日焦点 | 全球宏观 | | | --- | --- | | 从日债到美债：全球期限溢价的涟漪 | 宏观策略 | | 李少金 Evan.Li@bocomgroup.com | | 作为全球第二大债券市场，日本超长债收益率的快速上涨，折射出全球 债券市场在财政扩张与央行政策分化背景下的结构性变化。在关税贸易 政策不确定性持续的当下，市场对各国财政政策进一步宽松的预期正推 高风险溢价，或预示着全球长端利率重估周期的来临。 | 全球主要指数 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 年初至今 | | | 收盘价 | 升跌% | 升跌% | | 恒指 | 24,181 | 1.61 | 17.43 | | 国指 | 8,780 | 1.74 | 20.44 | | 上 A | 3,563 | 0.43 | 1.42 | | 上 B | 257 | 0.26 | -3.92 | | 深 A | 2,120 | 0.93 | 3.53 | | 深 B | 1,188 | -0.49 | -2.07 | | 道指 | 42, ...

Global Macro - The rapid rise in Japanese super-long government bond yields since mid-May 2025 has triggered turbulence in the global bond market, with the 40-year bond yield surpassing 3.68%, the highest since its issuance in 2007 [2][6][23] - The increase in yields reflects structural changes in the global bond market amid fiscal expansion and diverging central bank policies, with expectations of further fiscal easing pushing up risk premiums [2][6][23] Japanese Long-term Bond Yield Dynamics - The primary driver of the recent rise in Japanese long-term bond yields is the gradual normalization of the Bank of Japan's monetary policy, which has created conditions for the repricing of super-long government bonds [3][24] - A structural imbalance in supply and demand has exacerbated market volatility, as the absence of the Bank of Japan as a "super buyer" has removed crucial market support [3][30] - The demand side is also under pressure, with rising interest rate expectations leading domestic institutional investors to adopt a wait-and-see approach, further weakening buying power [3][37] Economic Challenges and Policy Dilemmas - Japan's economy faces dual challenges of weak domestic demand and external tariff shocks, with the central bank caught in a policy dilemma [3][52] - The government debt-to-GDP ratio has surpassed 260%, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability as rising long-term bond yields increase borrowing costs [3][60] Spillover Effects on Global Bond Markets - The volatility in Japanese long-term bond yields has significant spillover effects on the U.S. Treasury market, with Japanese insurers and pension funds potentially exerting structural selling pressure on U.S. bonds [3][64] - The global bond market is undergoing a systematic reassessment of risk premiums, with Japan's long-term bond yields acting as a "ballast" in the global interest rate system [3][70] U.S. Treasury Yield Outlook - Short-term risks for U.S. Treasury yields are notable, with expectations of a resolution to the debt ceiling issue leading to substantial net issuance of $300-400 billion within 2-3 months [3][91] - The anticipated fiscal policies under the Trump administration may further pressure U.S. Treasury yields, with a projected range of 4.0-5.0% for the 10-year yield by the end of 2025 [3][105]

New Energy Industry - The report highlights that despite uncertainties, opportunities still exist in the new energy sector, particularly focusing on dividend stability [1] - The preferred investment order is operators > photovoltaic glass > polysilicon > inverters > battery cells, with China Power (2380 HK) and Jingneng Clean Energy (579 HK) being top picks [1] - The photovoltaic sector is expected to see significant earnings improvement in Q1 2025, with Fuyat (6865 HK) and GCL-Poly Energy (3800 HK) also recommended for investment [1] Wind Power - The report anticipates a 23% year-on-year increase in new wind power installations in 2025, although adjustments may occur post-installation [2] - A conservative estimate suggests a slight decline in new installations in 2026, contingent on new policy impacts and project pricing [2] Zhiwen Group - The company is projected to experience a revenue turning point in the second half of 2025, driven by accelerated overseas growth [3] - Revenue and adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025 have been raised by 5% and 13% respectively, with a target price increase to $8.30 [3][4] - The first quarter of 2025 showed a revenue of 2.52 billion yuan, exceeding market expectations by 4%, primarily due to a 72% year-on-year growth in overseas business [3] IBI363 by Innovent Biologics - Early clinical data for IBI363 in treating I/O resistant NSCLC shows promising results, with an overall response rate (ORR) of 26-37% and median progression-free survival (PFS) of 5.5-9.3 months [7][8] - The potential market for IBI363 is significant, especially given the limited effective therapies available for post-PD-(L)1 treatment [8] - The target price for IBI363 has been raised to 84 HKD, reflecting its strong market potential [8] Economic Data - Upcoming economic data releases include the Consumer Price Index and unemployment claims in the US, with expectations set for various metrics [9]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to multiple companies in the renewable energy sector, including China Power (2380 HK), China Resources Power (836 HK), and GCL-Poly Energy (3800 HK) [2][4]. Core Insights - The renewable energy operators face both challenges and opportunities under new policies, with dividend levels showing relative certainty. The introduction of Document No. 136 in 2025 is expected to shift the long-term strategies of operators significantly [1][7]. - The solar photovoltaic (PV) industry is anticipated to experience a substantial capacity clearance, with stock prices declining, presenting opportunities for leading companies. The demand for solar PV is expected to remain strong in 2024, but a short-term adjustment in demand is likely following the end of the rush to install projects [17][20]. - Wind power installations are projected to grow by 23% in 2025, reaching 98 GW, but a slight decline is expected in 2026 due to adjustments in pricing mechanisms [4][6]. Summary by Sections Operators - Operators are expected to focus on maintaining dividend rates, with an average dividend yield of around 6% across the covered companies. The report highlights that operators with strong technical capabilities and scale advantages will be better positioned to adapt to market changes [11][14]. - The new pricing mechanism will require operators to optimize project management and respond to fluctuations in electricity prices [7][8]. Photovoltaic Industry - The report predicts that the global demand for solar PV will slow down in 2025, with a projected installation of approximately 270 GW in China, a 3% decrease year-on-year [22]. - The solar glass sector is expected to see a rebound in prices after a strong recovery, but future supply may decrease due to regulatory requirements for capacity replacement [37][38]. Wind Power - The report anticipates that the wind power sector will see a significant increase in new installations in 2025, but a potential decline in 2026 due to the new pricing mechanism and market adjustments [4][6]. - The profitability of wind turbine manufacturers will depend on their ability to deliver projects in offshore and international markets [4][6]. Financial Metrics - The report provides detailed financial metrics for various companies, including earnings per share, price-to-earnings ratios, and dividend yields, indicating a generally favorable outlook for operators in the renewable energy sector [2][4][14].