在前期板块表现相对压制时候，#天风通信一直坚定推荐看好AI光互联三大主线：1）业绩/订单/确定性（易中天、 东山、华懋、剑桥、汇绿等）；2）CPO/OCS等新技术（致尚、罗博特科、腾景、蘅东光、博创、太辰光等）； 3）紧缺涨价环节：光芯片/光纤光缆/旋光片等（源杰、永鼎、仕佳、亨通中天长飞、福晶等）。 展望未来，27年旭创10倍出头估值，新 天风通信 | AI光互联依旧坚定为最硬主线，季报预告后行情更值期待！ 在前期板块表现相对压制时候，#天风通信一直坚定推荐看好AI光互联三大主线：1）业绩/订单/确定性（易中天、 东山、华懋、剑桥、汇绿等）；2）CPO/OCS等新技术（致尚、罗博特科、腾景、蘅东光、博创、太辰光等）； 3）紧缺涨价环节：光芯片/光纤光缆/旋光片等（源杰、永鼎、仕佳、亨通中天长飞、福晶等）。 展望未来，27年旭创10倍出头估值，新易盛8-9倍，我们认为未来业绩弹性和估值提升带来赔率空间仍很大，行情 更值期待，逻辑如下： 天风通信 | AI光互联依旧坚定为最硬主线，季报预告后行情更值期待！ 。 2、产业逻辑：#1）需求端始终为核心矛盾和主线逻辑：26年（800G和1.6T）供不应求可见的高景气， ...

Summary of Earnings Call Notes Industry Overview - The notes primarily focus on the mechanical industry and several companies within it, including 中科飞测 (Zhongke Feice), 科瑞技术 (Kerry Technology), 博杰股份 (Bojie Co.), 华兴源创 (Huaxing Yuanchuang), 正帆科技 (Zhengfan Technology), 曼恩斯特 (Mannste), and 信宇人 (Xinyuren) [1][2][5][7][10][12][13][14]. Key Points and Arguments 中科飞测 (Zhongke Feice) - **Performance Recovery**: Expected revenue for 2025 is projected to be between 1.95 billion to 2.15 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 41.3% to 55.8%. Net profit is expected to be between 48 million to 72 million yuan, marking a turnaround from losses [2][4]. - **Core Technology Breakthrough**: The company has achieved breakthroughs in core technologies, leading to rapid iterations of product lines and significant revenue contributions from new and upgraded products [4]. - **Scale Effect**: As revenue grows, the proportion of R&D investment has decreased year-on-year, enhancing overall profitability [4]. - **Strong Domestic Demand**: The acceleration of domestic substitution in semiconductor equipment has allowed core products to enter major clients' production lines, resulting in bulk shipments [4]. 科瑞技术 (Kerry Technology) - **Significant Growth**: Expected net profit for 2025 is projected to be between 235 million to 300 million yuan, a substantial increase of 68.61% to 115.25% year-on-year. Non-recurring net profit is expected to be between 130 million to 190 million yuan, with a growth of 4.69% to 53.01% [5]. - **Client Expansion**: The company has aggressively expanded its client base in the semiconductor and optical module sectors, leading to increased revenue [5]. - **Operational Efficiency**: Improved management practices have reduced credit and asset impairment losses, thereby safeguarding profit margins [5]. - **Non-recurring Gains**: The sale of a subsidiary contributed approximately 82 million yuan to net profit [5]. 博杰股份 (Bojie Co.) - **Explosive Growth**: Expected revenue for 2025 is projected to be between 1.7 billion to 1.95 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 38% to 58%. Net profit is expected to be between 130 million to 160 million yuan, reflecting a staggering increase of 484% to 619% [7]. - **AI Server Business Surge**: The expansion of computing infrastructure has led to significant deliveries of AI servers and related testing equipment [7]. - **New Energy Vehicle Growth**: The acquisition of Guanghao Jie has enhanced the scale of automotive electronics business [7]. - **MLCC Equipment Demand Recovery**: Strong downstream demand has led to a continuous increase in orders for related equipment [7]. 华兴源创 (Huaxing Yuanchuang) - **Turnaround**: Expected net profit for 2025 is approximately 85 million yuan, a recovery from a loss of 497 million yuan in the previous year [10]. - **Industry Recovery**: The company benefits from the recovery in consumer electronics and AI technology advancements, alongside government subsidy policies [10]. - **Asset Quality Improvement**: The reduction in goodwill impairment losses is expected to significantly improve asset quality [10]. - **Efficiency Enhancements**: Optimizing product structure and cost reduction measures have led to overall operational improvements [10]. 正帆科技 (Zhengfan Technology) - **Performance Pressure**: Expected revenue for 2025 is projected to be between 4.8 billion to 5.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 7% to 12%. Net profit is expected to decline to between 11 million to 15 million yuan, a drop of 72% to 79% [12]. - **Revenue and Margin Decline**: The decline is attributed to reduced capital expenditures in downstream industries and increased market competition [12]. - **Increased Depreciation Costs**: New capacity investments have led to higher depreciation expenses [12]. - **Financial Costs Rise**: Increased interest expenses due to investments and loans have pressured profitability [12]. 曼恩斯特 (Mannste) - **Short-term Losses**: Expected net profit for 2025 is projected to be between -110 million to -90 million yuan, indicating a shift from profit to loss [13]. - **Order Challenges**: A decrease in new orders and increased competition have negatively impacted revenue [13]. - **Strategic Transition**: The company is undergoing a strategic transformation, increasing R&D investments and market presence, which has raised operational costs [13]. - **Future Outlook**: Anticipated recovery in the lithium battery sector may improve order volumes in the future [13]. 信宇人 (Xinyuren) - **Increased Losses**: Expected net profit for 2025 is projected to be between -480 million to -400 million yuan, indicating a worsening loss situation [14]. - **Price Pressure**: Low demand and intense competition have led to declining product prices and gross margins [14]. - **Asset Impairment**: Increased inventory write-downs and longer accounts receivable aging have contributed to higher impairment losses [14]. - **Future Strategies**: The company plans to optimize client structure and enhance operational efficiency to gradually improve gross margins [15].

【东吴商社】26年1月底金价大跌之下，如何看待黄金珠宝的投资机会？ 1金价大跌（非破位）不影响黄金珠宝长期逻辑——黄金珠宝的业态收取的是每年与销售额比例相关的品牌费 用，是稳定且强的品牌现金流模式，这个优秀的品牌模式并不以金价短期变化而影响。 2黄金珠宝，直营和加盟不同的模式的反映—— -直营模式的如【菜百股份】【老铺黄金】【六福集团】【周生生】，会更直接的反映金价的变化，短期动销会带 来利润上的变化，2025年菜百股份的业绩预告超预期就反映了该情况（25年底沪金价995元），直营模式黄金珠宝 公司在金价不显著跌破1000元，缓涨回升的情况下会显著体现业绩受益。 -加盟模式的如【周大福】【周大生】【老凤祥】【萃华珠宝】【潮宏基】【周六福】，反映的是消费者习惯金价 后的需求回补，对金价的反映通常需要3-5个季度的时间，2025Q4周大福同店回复也反应了需求回补的进程，目前 加盟模式的黄金珠宝公司都还处于较低的股价位置，机会更为确定。 加盟模式的黄金珠宝公司在金价不显著跌破800元，缓涨或震荡的情况下会逐渐体现业绩受益。 3黄金珠宝公司比金矿公司的优势——①现金流显著更好（反映长期商业模式优势）：金矿公司山东黄金 ...

上线3天涌入15万Agent！Moltbook开启"机机交互"新纪元，重申大模型与算力双王，关注安全！【天风计算机 缪欣 君/刘鉴团队】 1）大模型： 2）infra与安全： Cloudflare 3）算力：#寒武纪、#海光信息、瑞芯微（电子组覆盖）； 4）IDC： 大位科技、润泽科技、奥飞数据、光环新网、科华数据等； 5）端侧：联想集团、绿联、智微智能； 6）云服务：金山云、阿里云； 上线3天涌入15万Agent！Moltbook开启"机机交互"新纪元，重申大模型与算力双王，关注安全！【天风计算机 缪欣 君/刘鉴团队】 1）大模型： 2）infra与安全： Cloudflare 3）算力：#寒武纪、#海光信息、瑞芯微（电子组覆盖）； 4）IDC： 大位科技、润泽科技、奥飞数据、光环新网、科华数据等； 5）端侧：联想集团、绿联、智微智能； 6）云服务：金山云、阿里云； 7）安全：深信服、安恒信息、启明星辰、绿盟科技等 8）存储、光模块等 根据官网，上线三天Moltbook涌入超15万AI Agents。 不同AI在平台上自主发文、互动、协作，甚至讨论建立端对端加密私密空间，呈现显著的自主协作与自组织特 征。 ...

【华泰策略】港股策略：科技+周期耗材主线回撤而非反转 上周港股市场先是快速创下四年新高吸引关注，随后周五又伴随全球市场Riskoff调整。 虽然我们从12月开始提示一季度港股补涨甚至反超A股宽基表现，但在与市场的交流中感受到，港股一月的快速上 涨还是超出了普遍预期，尤其是整个4Q盘整下投资者对港股关注度普遍下降，这也侧面反映这轮反弹可能有不少 踏空的资金。 因此周五调整后，最 【华泰策略】港股策略：科技+周期耗材主线回撤而非反转 上周港股市场先是快速创下四年新高吸引关注，随后周五又伴随全球市场Riskoff调整。 虽然我们从12月开始提示一季度港股补涨甚至反超A股宽基表现，但在与市场的交流中感受到，港股一月的快速上 涨还是超出了普遍预期，尤其是整个4Q盘整下投资者对港股关注度普遍下降，这也侧面反映这轮反弹可能有不少 踏空的资金。 因此周五调整后，最重要的两个问题就是：1）能不能以及什么时候可以补仓。 2）后续上涨的是近期跌的多的科技+周期，还是会找到新的主线。 1） 对第一个问题，我们的答案是可以的，调整一下其实更加健康。 导致市场调整的外围原因并没有影响到本质。 流动性问题上，市场对美联储转鹰的预期已经计入 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: The records primarily discuss the lithium battery, sodium battery, wind power, and photovoltaic sectors, highlighting recent developments and future expectations in these industries. Lithium Battery Sector - **National Capacity Pricing Policy**: The introduction of the national capacity pricing policy is expected to increase the Internal Rate of Return (IRR) for energy storage by over 3%, with more provinces likely to adopt energy storage solutions by 2026 [1] - **Lithium Battery Production**: In February, lithium battery production is projected to decrease by over 10%, indicating that the production season is not as weak as anticipated [1] - **Sodium Battery Testing**: Ningde has initiated winter testing with multiple automotive companies for sodium batteries, with expectations for mass production in Q2 [1] - **Investment Focus**: The preferred investment hierarchy includes energy storage cells (Penghui) > lithium iron phosphate cathodes > energy storage integration (Haibo) > separators (Enjie), copper, and aluminum foil (Nord and Dingsheng) [1] Sodium Battery Sector - **Lithium Carbonate Price Adjustment**: A new round of price increases for lithium carbonate is anticipated following adjustments, with strong downstream purchasing activity observed after recent price drops [2] - **Wind Power Sector Performance**: Recent performance forecasts for the wind power sector have largely fallen short of expectations due to a decline in Q4 shipments and year-end impairments, indicating a confirmed bottom for the main engine sector [2] - **Investment Recommendations**: Recommended stocks include Jinlei Co., Daikin Heavy Industries, and major engine manufacturers (Goldwind, SANY, Yunda, Mingyang) [2] Photovoltaic Sector - **Space Photovoltaics**: The application by SpaceX to deploy 1 million satellites to create a space data center reinforces the logic behind space photovoltaics [3] - **Cost Reduction in Battery Production**: The high silver prices and technological breakthroughs have led to an average cost reduction of over 0.15 CNY/W in copper-based batteries, indicating a potential explosion in the no-silver industrialization [3] - **Investment Focus**: The preferred investment hierarchy includes equipment manufacturers (Liancheng, Lap, Maiwei, Yujing) and battery materials (Bojian, Foster, Kaisheng, Juhua, Dike, Risheng, Junda) [3] AIDC (Artificial Intelligence Data Center) Sector - **New Bidding Opportunities**: The domestic supply chain is entering a new round of bidding, with ByteDance shifting its focus to high-voltage direct current solutions and Nvidia tightening certification for liquid cooling [3] - **Production Increase**: The production capacity of Yingwei's QD is expected to increase by 20 times in Q1, indicating a strong alignment with Nvidia's ecosystem [3]

【存储芯片】【射频芯片】【AI编程】【轮胎】【药房】【创新药】调研 【存储芯片】核心要点： 1）HBF在AI服务器中用于部分替代HBM，平衡性能与成本。 预计2026Q4–2027Q1量产，价格约10–11美元/GB。 2）从意愿层面，HBF利好闪迪和铠侠，因其不涉足HBM业务，可通过HBF拓展市场。 3）目前HBM供需基本平衡。 【存储芯片】【射频芯片】【AI编程】【轮胎】【药房】【创新药】调研 【存储芯片】核心要点： 1）HBF在AI服务器中用于部分替代HBM，平衡性能与成本。 预计2026Q4–2027Q1量产，价格约10–11美元/GB。 2）从意愿层面，HBF利好闪迪和铠侠，因其不涉足HBM业务，可通过HBF拓展市场。 3）目前HBM供需基本平衡。 产能方面，2026年计划扩产至47.6万片/月，推测2026年HBM价格将稳中有降。 分别以GitHub Copilot、Cursor、Claude Code为代表。 2）商业化进展最快的是GitHub Copilot，其月活用户付费率超过20%；Cursor最新ARR达十亿美元；Claude Code编 程方向API调用量已达Anthropic的约60 ...

Genie3真的利空游戏吗？ ①Genie3定义了一种新的可交互内容，但是很难称之为游戏。 由于技术限制，过往游戏基本是唯一的可交互式内容；而Genie3能做到的事情是让用户"走进图片（step into a picture)"，创造了一种可交互式内容的新形式，而非做游戏。 游戏核心要素是可玩性，通过一系列玩法机制，让用户产生多巴胺；一个成功的商业游戏，还要搭配社区运营、 活动运营、商业化体系搭建等多个环节，是一个系统化的工程。 30日晚谷歌公测世界模型Genie3，用户可以通过图片上传（可选）+提示词输入，创造环境并控制角色自由活 动。 周五晚美股游戏产业链大跌，Unity（引擎+广告）-24%，Roblox（UGC平台）-13%，Take-Two（研发商）-8%，市 场交易AI颠覆游戏产业链的叙事。 观点：开拓了一种新的可交互内容范式，但无法颠 Genie3真的利空游戏吗？ 30日晚谷歌公测世界模型Genie3，用户可以通过图片上传（可选）+提示词输入，创造环境并控制角色自由活 动。 周五晚美股游戏产业链大跌，Unity（引擎+广告）-24%，Roblox（UGC平台）-13%，Take-Two（研发商） ...

一、空天投资逐步进入第二阶段，基本面推进速度远超预期。 T/S订单，国内星座、火箭发射进度，确定性成为意想不到的核心要素。 【国金空天】商业航天周报|2026.02.01 【计算机】 二、空天时代最大的认知差是市场仍然用发射量线性外推，但在太空算力需求下，应用5～10GW作为中期展望， 意味着一年数十万颗卫星与近万发火箭，对应具身智能一年百万台展望。 三、国内飞沃科技、西部材料、航天动力等龙头仍有极强性价比，可逐步加大重视。 基本面推进下的收入利润及估值优势成为下一波投资的主导因素。 市场噪音较多，紧跟国金空天。 二、空天时代最大的认知差是市场仍然用发射量线性外推，但在太空算力需求下，应 【国金空天】商业航天周报|2026.02.01 【计算机】 一、空天投资逐步进入第二阶段，基本面推进速度远超预期。 T/S订单，国内星座、火箭发射进度，确定性成为意想不到的核心要素。 基本面推进下的收入利润及估值优势成为下一波投资的主导因素。 市场噪音较多，紧跟国金空天。 继续看好商业航天三剑客：飞沃科技、西部材料、航天动力。 【军工】太空竞赛再加速，关注火箭和卫星核心卡位标的。 【电新】人类迈出走向卡尔达肖夫II级文明的第 ...

【天风金属】沃什上任不终结贵金属牛市，维持中长期看好，静待降波260201 本周贵金属市场行情极致波动，回调的trigger是特朗普提名偏鹰的凯文沃什为联储主席，在波动率已较高的背 景下，市场急需一个卖出理由释放波动，最终造成了市场剧烈调整。 ▪沃什的主张：政治上合理、实操上矛盾，"明鹰实鸽"概率高，也难以逆转贵金属牛市底层逻辑 沃什主张的"缩表+降息"路径既满足了重塑财政 【天风金属】沃什上任不终结贵金属牛市，维持中长期看好，静待降波260201 本周贵金属市场行情极致波动，回调的trigger是特朗普提名偏鹰的凯文沃什为联储主席，在波动率已较高的背 景下，市场急需一个卖出理由释放波动，最终造成了市场剧烈调整。 因此在执行层面，降息举动能见度高，#但缩表举动更多停留在"预期管理"上，对市场流动性影响有限，也更不意 味着将终结贵金属牛市。 ▪黄金牛市底层逻辑不改，静待降波 由于沃什的政策对重塑美国财政纪律见效有限，#则由美元信用问题推动的黄金牛市趋势不变。 沃什主张的"缩表+降息"路径既满足了重塑财政纪律、强化美元信用的#政策诉求，又满足了托底经济、稳固金融 市场、响应中期选举的#政治诉求。 且提名沃什也#回 ...