Revenue Insights - In January-February, the national general public budget revenue was CNY 43,856.0 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 1.6%, with the decline expanding by 2.9 percentage points compared to the previous year[1] - Central government budget revenue fell to CNY 19,499.0 billion, down 5.8% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 6.7 percentage points[1] - Local government budget revenue increased by 2.0% year-on-year, reaching CNY 24,357.0 billion, with the growth rate expanding by 0.3 percentage points[1] Tax Contributions - Personal income tax contributed positively to the tax revenue growth, achieving a contribution of 2.3 percentage points, with a month-on-month improvement of 2.4 percentage points[7] - Domestic value-added tax turned from negative to positive, contributing 0.4 percentage points to tax revenue growth, with a month-on-month improvement of 1.9 percentage points[2] - Corporate income tax showed a negative contribution of -2.8 percentage points due to the impact of the Spring Festival, with a month-on-month decline of 2.7 percentage points[2] Expenditure Trends - General public budget expenditure reached CNY 45,096.0 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, with the growth rate narrowing by 0.2 percentage points[9] - Central government budget expenditure grew by 8.6% year-on-year to CNY 5,242.0 billion, with the growth rate expanding by 2.1 percentage points[9] - Local government budget expenditure increased by 2.7% year-on-year, totaling CNY 39,854.0 billion, with the growth rate narrowing by 0.5 percentage points[9] Focus on Social Welfare - Social security and employment expenditures contributed 1.2 percentage points to the growth of general public budget expenditure, with a month-on-month improvement of 0.4 percentage points[10] - The shift in fiscal expenditure towards "benefiting people's livelihoods" indicates a strategic focus on social welfare[10] Overall Fiscal Performance - General fiscal revenue and expenditure for January-February were CNY 50,237.0 billion and CNY 56,454.0 billion, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -2.9% and 2.9%[15] - The expenditure growth rate outpaced revenue growth, indicating a proactive fiscal policy approach[15] - The government plans to implement a more active fiscal policy with a target deficit rate of around 4% for the year, suggesting an increase in fiscal spending[15]

Revenue Insights - In January-February 2025, the national general public budget revenue was CNY 43,856.0 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 1.6%, with the decline expanding by 2.9 percentage points compared to the previous year[2] - Central government revenue was CNY 19,499.0 billion, down 5.8% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 6.7 percentage points[5] - Local government revenue was CNY 24,357.0 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.0%, with the growth rate expanding by 0.3 percentage points[5] Tax Contributions - Personal income tax contributed positively to the revenue growth, achieving a 2.3 percentage point increase year-on-year, with a month-on-month improvement of 2.4 percentage points[7] - Domestic value-added tax turned from negative to positive contribution, achieving 0.4 percentage points, with a month-on-month improvement of 1.9 percentage points[7] - Corporate income tax showed a negative contribution of -2.8 percentage points year-on-year, reflecting the impact of the Spring Festival on corporate operations[3] Expenditure Trends - General public budget expenditure reached CNY 45,096.0 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, with the growth rate narrowing by 0.2 percentage points[9] - Central government expenditure was CNY 5,242.0 billion, up 8.6% year-on-year, with the growth rate expanding by 2.1 percentage points[9] - Local government expenditure was CNY 39,854.0 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, with the growth rate narrowing by 0.5 percentage points[9] Fiscal Policy Outlook - The general fiscal revenue and expenditure for January-February were CNY 50,237.0 billion and CNY 56,454.0 billion respectively, with expenditure growth outpacing revenue growth at 2.9%[15] - The government plans to implement a more proactive fiscal policy with a target deficit ratio of around 4% for the year, indicating a significant increase in fiscal spending[15] - Risks include heightened overseas recession risks and increased geopolitical uncertainties[15]

Investment Rating - The transportation industry is rated as "Outperform" [2] Core Insights - The new ship orders for dry bulk carriers have dropped to a near historical low, with a 92% year-on-year decline in the first two months of 2025, marking the lowest level in at least 30 years. Factors such as low freight rates, high new ship costs, long delivery times, and market uncertainty are suppressing new orders [3][15] - South Korea plans to implement a phased visa exemption for Chinese group tourists, with the International Air Transport Association (IATA) projecting that China will become the world's largest air passenger market by 2030 [3][16][17] - In February 2025, the express delivery business volume reached 13.59 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 58.8%, indicating a strong recovery and robust market demand in the industry [3][25] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Hot Events - The U.S. Trade Representative proposed fees on ships built in China, leading to a significant drop in new dry bulk carrier orders [14] - South Korea's phased visa exemption for Chinese tourists aims to boost tourism and economic cooperation [16] - February's express delivery volume reached 13.59 billion pieces, reflecting a strong recovery in the postal industry [24][25] 2. Industry High-Frequency Data Tracking - Air logistics: Stable capacity on routes from China to the Asia-Pacific region [28] - Shipping ports: Container shipping price index decreased while dry bulk freight rates increased [42] - Express logistics: February express delivery volume increased by 58.75% year-on-year [54] - Air travel: Daily average international flights increased by 21.09% year-on-year in March [84] - Road and rail: Nationwide highway truck traffic increased by 3.45% [98] 3. Investment Recommendations - Focus on the equipment and manufacturing export chain, recommending companies like COSCO Shipping and China Merchants Energy Shipping [5] - Attention to low-altitude economy investment opportunities, recommending CITIC Offshore Helicopter [5] - Investment opportunities in cruise and ferry sectors, recommending Bohai Ferry and Straits Shares [5] - E-commerce and express delivery investment opportunities, recommending SF Express and Jitu Express [5] - Investment opportunities in the aviation sector, recommending China Southern Airlines and Spring Airlines [5]

证券研究报告——晨会聚焦 2025 年 3 月 25 日 | 3 月金股组合 | | | --- | --- | | 股票代码 | 股票名称 | | 1519.HK | 极兔速递-W | | 601857.SH | 中国石油 | | 688019.SH | 安集科技 | | 000680.SZ | 山推股份 | | 300073.SZ | 当升科技 | | 600600.SH | 青岛啤酒 | | 000524.SZ | 岭南控股 | | 603986.SH | 兆易创新 | 中银晨会聚焦-20250325 ■重点关注 产品组 证券分析师：王军 (8621)20328310 jun.wang_sh@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300511070001 【电力设备】氢能行业系列报告之四*武佳雄。节能降碳需求推动我国氢能 需求加速；欧盟 FEU、CBAM 逐步进入正式执行阶段，航运、化工领域已 经出现氢基燃料明确需求；随着电解槽制氢、终端用氢技术突破或补贴规模 扩大，我国氢能应用规模有望提升。 【非银金融】证券行业 2024 年年报前瞻*张天愉。21 家上市券商预披露 2024 年业 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "stronger than the market," indicating that the industry index is expected to perform better than the benchmark index over the next 6-12 months [16]. Core Viewpoints - The recent issuance of the "Consumption Promotion Special Action Plan" by the Central Committee and the State Council is expected to stimulate travel demand, benefiting the aviation transportation sector, particularly the demand for regional aviation focused on tourism resources [4][6]. - The current passenger throughput of regional airports in China is relatively low, with only 6.2% of total throughput, suggesting significant growth potential as GDP per capita increases [4][5]. - The regional aviation market is characterized by a steady passenger throughput of around 90 million over the past five years, with a projected increase in flight operations and passenger demand [5][6]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - Regional airports account for over 70% of the total number of airports in China, but only 6% of passenger throughput, indicating room for growth [4]. - The number of regional airports is distributed across 28 provinces, covering over 170 cities, with a concentration in areas with unique tourism resources [6]. Market Dynamics - In 2024, Huaxia Airlines holds the largest market share in the regional aviation sector at 13.4%, with the top ten airlines accounting for 69.3% of the market [7]. - The regional aviation market is expected to benefit from the government's focus on expanding tourism consumption, leading to a diversified and increased demand for regional air travel [4][6].

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "Outperform" [1] Core Viewpoints - The real estate market has seen significant increases in transaction volumes due to the impact of the Spring Festival holiday, with both new and second-hand housing transactions turning positive on a year-on-year basis [1][6] - The central bank is focused on ensuring the effectiveness of previously introduced financial policies to support the real estate market [1][6] Summary by Sections 1. Key City New Housing Market, Second-hand Housing Market, and Inventory Tracking - In the week of February 8 to February 14, 2025, new housing transaction volume in 40 cities reached 16,000 units, a week-on-week increase of 156.5% and a year-on-year increase of 4578.0% [16] - New housing transaction area was 1.742 million square meters, with a week-on-week increase of 162.4% and a year-on-year increase of 3621.7% [21] - The inventory of new homes in 12 cities was 5.966 million square meters, showing a week-on-week decrease of 1.1% and a year-on-year decrease of 14.5% [34] 2. Land Market Tracking - The total planned land area sold in 100 cities was 9.694 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 456.4% and a year-on-year increase of 16.7% [12] - The total land transaction price was 13.27 billion yuan, with a week-on-week increase of 18.2% and a year-on-year increase of 53.8% [12] - The average floor price of land was 1368.4 yuan per square meter, showing a week-on-week decrease of 78.7% but a year-on-year increase of 31.8% [12] 3. Policy Overview - Recent policies include adjustments to housing provident fund loan expiration dates and the removal of housing sales restrictions in Chongqing, aimed at improving housing security for migrant populations [6] - The central bank's monetary policy report indicates a commitment to supporting the real estate market through various financial measures, including a 300 billion yuan re-loan for affordable housing [6] 4. Sector Performance Review - The absolute return of the real estate sector was 2.0%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the previous week, while the relative return compared to the CSI 300 was 0.8%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points [13] - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the real estate sector was 20.78X, an increase of 0.22X from the previous week [13] 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with stable fundamentals and high market share in core cities, as well as smaller firms that have made significant breakthroughs in sales and land acquisition since 2024 [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a market price of RMB 5.71 and a sector rating of outperforming the market [1]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of RMB 599.9 billion for 2024, a decrease of 16.8% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 9.5 billion, down 48.2% year-on-year. The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of RMB 1.04 per 10 shares, resulting in a payout ratio of 30% [4][8]. - Despite the revenue decline, the company has a robust backlog of resources to be settled, ensuring a high degree of future earnings security. The pre-sold funds amounted to RMB 874 billion, with a pre-sold funds to revenue ratio of 1.46X, indicating a solid performance in future revenue generation [4][10][15]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company’s revenue for 2024 was RMB 599.9 billion, down 16.8% from the previous year. The net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 9.5 billion, reflecting a 48.2% decline [4][14]. - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 14.3%, a decrease of 3.8 percentage points year-on-year. The net profit margin and net profit attributable to shareholders' margin were 2.3% and 1.6%, respectively, both down from the previous year [12][14]. Sales and Market Position - The company achieved a sales amount of RMB 1,054 billion in 2024, a decrease of 16.3% year-on-year, and entered the top 10 in industry sales rankings for the first time [7][32]. - The average selling price was RMB 28,500 per square meter, down 9.7% year-on-year, with a total sales area of 3.7 million square meters, a decline of 7.4% [32][34]. Investment and Future Outlook - The company is focusing on key cities for land acquisition, with a total land reserve of 3.77 million square meters, down 13.2% year-on-year. The land acquisition amount for 2024 was RMB 9.5 billion, a significant decrease of 76.8% [7][34]. - The company expects revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be RMB 559 billion, RMB 544 billion, and RMB 519 billion, respectively, with corresponding net profits of RMB 7.7 billion, RMB 6.9 billion, and RMB 6.4 billion [5][6]. Debt and Financing - As of the end of 2024, the company had interest-bearing liabilities of RMB 1,254 billion, a decrease of 2.6% year-on-year, with a net debt ratio of 73.8%, up 11.2 percentage points [7][23]. - The average financing cost was 5.22%, down 0.26 percentage points year-on-year, indicating improved financial health [7][30].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][5] Core Views - The company achieved a significant improvement in profitability in 2024, with total revenue reaching USD 10.259 billion, a year-on-year increase of 15.9%, driven by strong global parcel volume growth [8] - Adjusted EBITDA rose to USD 778 million, reflecting a substantial increase of 430.5%, indicating enhanced profitability [8] - The company turned a profit with a net income of USD 114 million in 2024, compared to a loss of USD 1.156 billion in 2023 [8] - The report highlights the continued improvement in domestic business profitability and the ongoing increase in overseas market share [5] Financial Performance Summary - The company’s revenue for 2024 was USD 10.259 billion, with a growth rate of 15.9% [7] - Adjusted EBITDA for 2024 was USD 778 million, showing a significant increase of 430.5% [8] - The net profit for 2024 was USD 114 million, a turnaround from a loss of USD 1.156 billion in 2023 [8] - The operating cash flow for 2024 reached USD 807 million, a year-on-year increase of 136.1% [8] Parcel Volume and Cost Control - The global parcel volume reached 24.65 billion pieces in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 31.0% [8] - The cost per parcel in Southeast Asia decreased from USD 0.67 to USD 0.57, and in China from USD 0.34 to USD 0.30, demonstrating effective cost control [8] - Despite a slight decline in revenue per parcel due to competitive pricing adjustments, overall profitability improved due to cost reductions [8] Regional Performance - Southeast Asia remains the core market with a parcel volume of 4.56 billion pieces and a market share of 28.6% [8] - In China, the parcel volume reached 19.8 billion pieces, with a market share of 11.3%, ranking sixth in the industry [8] - New markets, including the Middle East and South America, saw revenue growth of 76.1% to USD 576 million, indicating successful market expansion efforts [8]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [19] Core Views - In February 2025, the new home prices in 70 major cities decreased by 0.1% month-on-month, while second-hand home prices fell by 0.3% month-on-month. The number of cities with declining prices has increased [3][10] - The report indicates that the core theme of the real estate market remains "stabilizing after a decline," with the primary task being to stimulate demand. The effectiveness of policies to boost demand is diminishing, and the market's recovery will depend on further easing measures and the progress of monetized old renovations and land reserves [3][10] Summary by Sections Price Trends - In February 2025, 45 out of 70 cities saw new home prices decline, an increase of 3 cities from January. The average decline in new home prices was 0.31%, while 65 cities experienced a drop in second-hand home prices, with an average decline of 0.38% [3][10] - First-tier cities showed a month-on-month increase in new home prices of 0.1%, maintaining positive growth for three consecutive months. However, second-hand home prices in these cities turned negative, with an average decline of 0.1% [3][10] - Second-tier cities saw new home prices stabilize, while second-hand home prices fell by 0.4%, widening the decline compared to January [3][10] - Third-tier cities experienced a 0.3% decline in new home prices, with second-hand home prices also decreasing by 0.4% [3][10] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on four main lines for investment: 1. Companies with stable fundamentals and high market share in core cities, such as Greentown China and China Resources Land [3] 2. Smaller companies that have made significant breakthroughs in sales and land acquisition since 2024, like Poly Real Estate [3] 3. Companies with operational or strategic changes benefiting from local government debt relief, such as Gemdale Corporation [3] 4. Real estate brokerage firms benefiting from the recovery in the second-hand housing market, including Beike and Wo Ai Wo Jia [3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is set to "stronger than the market" indicating that the industry index is expected to perform better than the benchmark index over the next 6-12 months [54]. Core Insights - The economic data for January-February 2025 shows an overall improvement compared to 2024, with industrial added value growing by 5.9%, fixed asset investment increasing by 4.1%, and retail sales growing by 4.0%, although the latter was below expectations [45][46]. - The macroeconomic policies are expected to have a significant impact on stabilizing growth, with a focus on infrastructure investment, manufacturing fixed asset investment, and consumer spending [46]. - The report highlights the resilience of high-tech industries and the positive impact of cultural products on service consumption, indicating a structural shift in the economy [45][46]. Summary by Sections Industrial Added Value - In January-February 2025, industrial added value increased by 5.9% year-on-year, supported by manufacturing and high-tech industries [7][11]. - The mining industry saw a year-on-year growth of 4.3%, while manufacturing grew by 6.9% and high-tech industries by 9.1% [5][11]. Retail Sales - Retail sales grew by 4.0% year-on-year, with non-automotive consumer goods retail sales increasing by 4.8% [5][18]. - Service consumption showed strong performance, with a year-on-year growth of 4.9% [5][22]. Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment increased by 4.1% year-on-year, with manufacturing investment growing by 9.0% and infrastructure investment by 5.6% [30][34]. - Real estate investment saw a decline of 9.8%, but the rate of decline has narrowed compared to 2024 [38][41]. Economic Outlook - The economic growth target for 2025 remains at 5%, with a need for multi-faceted efforts to stabilize growth [46]. - The report emphasizes the importance of macroeconomic policies in supporting growth, particularly in infrastructure and consumer spending [46].