宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量点评 2025 年 6 月 19 日 科创领航改革与开放 2025 年陆家嘴论坛金融政策点评 6 月 18 日，2025 陆家嘴论坛在上海开幕，中国人民银行行长潘功胜、金融监 管总局局长李云泽、中国证监会主席吴清、国家外汇局局长朱鹤新出席会议 并发表主题演讲。 相关研究报告 《策略点评》20250618 《5 月经济数据点评》20250616 《市场点评报告》20250616 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 宏观经济 证券分析师：张晓娇 xiaojiao.zhang@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300514010002 证券分析师：朱启兵 (8610)66229359 Qibing.Zhu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300516090001 "一行两局一会"重磅发声。央行宣布八项重磅金融政策：一是设立银 行间市场交易报告库；二是设立数字人民币国际运营中心；三是设立个 人征信机构；四是在上海临港新片区开展离岸贸易金融服务综合改革试 点；五是发展自贸离岸；六是优化升级自由贸易账户功能；七是在上海 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" [1][25]. Core Insights - The report highlights that government bonds are supporting the increase in social financing, with a notable year-on-year increase in social financing of 22.47 billion yuan in May [2][3]. - The report suggests focusing on the investment value of bank stocks, particularly recommending China Merchants Bank, Agricultural Bank of China, and Jiangsu Bank [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Data Overview - In May, the total new RMB loans amounted to 620 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 330 billion yuan. The increase in short-term loans for enterprises improved, while medium to long-term loans still require improvement [2][4]. - The social financing increment for May was 2.29 trillion yuan, which is a year-on-year increase of 224.7 billion yuan, primarily driven by government bonds [2][3]. Government Bonds and Corporate Financing - The net financing of government bonds in May reached 1.46 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 231.9 billion yuan. Direct financing for enterprises increased by 164.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 125.2 billion yuan [3]. - The report indicates that the demand for medium to long-term credit from enterprises remains insufficient, with a total of 5.3 trillion yuan in new loans for enterprises in May, a year-on-year decrease of 210 billion yuan [4]. Monetary Supply Trends - The M2 growth rate was 7.9%, while M1 growth rate was 2.3%, showing a slight decrease in M2 and an increase in M1 compared to the previous month [5]. - In May, the total RMB deposits increased by 2.18 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 500 billion yuan, with a notable increase in fiscal deposits [5].

未盈利公司 IPO 通道正式重启 证监会吴清主席在陆家嘴论坛上表示将推出进一步深化改革的"1+6"政策 措施，A 股 IPO 监管周期或开启新阶段。 相关研究报告 《策略点评》20250618 《5 月经济数据点评》20250616 《市场点评报告》20250616 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 策略研究 | 证券研究报告 — 总量点评 2025 年 6 月 19 日 市场点评报告 策略研究 证券分析师：王君 (8610)66229061 jun.wang@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300519060003 证券分析师：徐沛东 (8621)20328702 peidong.xu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300518020001 证监会吴清主席在 2025 陆家嘴论坛上表示，将聚焦提升制度的包容性和 适应性，加力推出进一步深化改革的"1+6"政策措施。其中 "1"指的 是在科创板设置科创成长层，重启未盈利企业适用于科创板第五套标准 上市，精准服务技术有较大突破、持续研发投入大、商业前景广阔的优 质科创企业；"6"则包括：1） ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the emergence of new consumption trends in China, drawing parallels with Japan's consumption patterns in the 1990s, including the rise of "value-for-money" consumption, increased demand for low-cost entertainment, and a growing interest in outdoor activities [2][5] - Key investment opportunities are identified in sectors such as discount retail, bulk snacks, cross-border e-commerce, domestic beauty products, entertainment economy, and outdoor consumption [2][5] Company Focus - The report lists a selection of stocks recommended for investment, including SF Holding (002352.SZ), Anji Technology (688019.SH), Baijun Medical (688198.SH), Lingnan Holdings (000524.SZ), Qingdao Beer (600600.SH), and Suochen Technology (688507.SH [1] Industry Performance - The report provides a summary of industry performance, indicating that the electronics sector saw a rise of 1.50%, while the beauty care sector experienced a decline of 1.73% [3] - Other sectors such as telecommunications and defense also showed positive growth, while real estate and construction materials faced declines [3] Market Indices - The report includes closing prices and percentage changes for major market indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index at 3388.81, showing a slight increase of 0.04% [4]

Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing trends in new consumption sectors, emphasizing opportunities in discount retail, bulk snacks, cross-border e-commerce, domestic beauty products, entertainment economy, and outdoor consumption [2][3][5] Consumption Trends - Post-1990s Japan experienced four major consumption trends: the rise of "value-for-money" consumption, increased popularity of low-cost home entertainment, a surge in vocational education demand due to unemployment, and the emergence of outdoor consumption [3][4] - In recent years, China's consumption structure has also evolved, presenting new investment opportunities, particularly in value-for-money consumption sectors such as discount retail and cross-border e-commerce [3][4] Performance of New Consumption Companies - Several new consumption companies, including Mixue Group, Blucoco, and Guming, have successfully listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, showing impressive performance with stock price increases of 83.8%, 109.1%, and 162.4% respectively since their listings [5][7] - The report notes that the entertainment economy is gaining traction, with companies like Pop Mart reporting a revenue growth of 106.9% and a net profit growth of 188.8% in 2024 [4][5] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests that the new consumption industry trends are still ongoing, and there are opportunities for selective investment in key sectors such as discount retail, bulk snacks, cross-border e-commerce, domestic beauty products, entertainment economy, and outdoor consumption [2][5] - The performance of new consumption companies in Hong Kong is expected to catalyze similar movements in the A-share market, providing further investment opportunities [5]

Core Views - The real estate sector is experiencing a significant decline in sales area and investment, with May 2025 sales area at 70.53 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 3.3%, and investment amounting to 850.4 billion yuan, down 12.0% year-on-year [6][7][9] - The average selling price of residential properties has shown a slight increase month-on-month, with May's average price at 10,004 yuan per square meter, reflecting a 2.5% month-on-month growth, although it is down 2.8% year-on-year [7][8] - The inventory pressure remains high, with the current housing inventory accounting for nearly one-quarter of the total inventory, indicating ongoing challenges in the market [8][12] Real Estate Sales - The monthly sales area decline has intensified, with cumulative sales area and amount showing increased year-on-year declines. The sales amount for May was 705.6 billion yuan, down 6.0% year-on-year [7][9] - The average selling price of residential properties has decreased year-on-year but has shown month-on-month growth, indicating a mixed market response [7][8] - Regional differences are evident, with the central region showing a slight increase in sales area, while the eastern and western regions continue to experience declines [7][8] Real Estate Inventory - As of the end of May, the broad inventory of residential properties stood at 1.67 billion square meters, with a depletion cycle of 25.7 months, indicating a slow sales pace [8][12] - The current housing inventory (completed but unsold) is approximately 413 million square meters, with a depletion cycle of 20.0 months, reflecting ongoing challenges in sales [8][12] Real Estate Development Investment - Development investment has seen a year-on-year decline, with May's investment at 850.4 billion yuan, down 12.0% year-on-year, primarily due to ongoing pressure in construction and installation investments [9][10] - New construction area in May was 53.48 million square meters, down 19.3% year-on-year, indicating a continued slowdown in new projects [9][10] - The land investment market shows signs of slight recovery, which may support future investment and construction activities [9][10] Developer Financing - Developer financing has decreased, with total funds received in May at 763.6 billion yuan, down 10.1% year-on-year, indicating weakened sales and financing conditions [12] - Sales receipts have weakened significantly, with down payments and pre-sales also showing declines, reflecting a challenging market environment [12]

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "Outperforming the Market" [1] Core Viewpoints - New home sales in May showed a month-on-month increase, with a narrowing year-on-year decline. The total new home sales area in 40 cities reached 10.414 million square meters, up 12.4% month-on-month but down 3.2% year-on-year, with the year-on-year decline narrowing by 5.6 percentage points compared to April [12][15] - The second-hand housing market showed weakening momentum, with a month-on-month decline in transaction volume and a narrowing year-on-year growth rate. The total transaction area for second-hand homes in 18 cities was 8.104 million square meters, down 15.9% month-on-month but up 3.6% year-on-year, with the year-on-year growth rate narrowing by 8.7 percentage points [20][24] - The land market continues to exhibit a "quality over quantity" trend, with a decrease in transaction volume but an increase in average land prices. The average land premium rate in May was 4.6%, down 3.6 percentage points month-on-month but up 2.3 percentage points year-on-year [11][19] Summary by Sections New Home Sales - In May, new home sales area increased month-on-month and the year-on-year decline narrowed. The total area sold in 40 cities was 10.414 million square meters, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 1.1% for the first five months [12][15] - First-tier cities saw a month-on-month increase of 14.9% and a year-on-year increase of 10.7%. Notably, Beijing's sales increased by 22% year-on-year, while Shenzhen experienced a decline [13][18] Second-Hand Home Sales - The second-hand home market showed a month-on-month decline in sales, with a year-on-year growth rate narrowing. The total area sold in 18 cities was 8.104 million square meters, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 19.1% for the first five months [20][24] - First and second-tier cities experienced a decrease in transaction volume, while third and fourth-tier cities saw a shift from positive to negative year-on-year growth [21][25] Land Market - The land market showed a decrease in transaction volume but an increase in average land prices. The average land premium rate was 4.6%, indicating a continued trend of "quality over quantity" [11][19] - The total land transaction area in May was 17.1148 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 9.8% but a year-on-year decrease of 2.7% [19] Real Estate Companies - The top 100 real estate companies saw a year-on-year sales decline of 11.1% in May, with a cumulative decline of 8.4% for the first five months [35] - The land acquisition amount for the top 100 companies decreased month-on-month, with a total acquisition amount of 70.6 billion yuan in May, down 47.4% month-on-month [39] Policy Support - Multiple financial support policies for the housing market were implemented, including a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio and a 0.1 percentage point reduction in policy interest rates [4][5] - The government aims to stabilize the real estate market and enhance financing mechanisms to support housing demand [4][5] Market Performance - The real estate sector underperformed compared to the CSI 300 index in May, with an absolute return of -0.4% and a relative return of -2.3% [47][48] - The report suggests that the market is still in a phase of adjustment, with ongoing efforts needed to restore confidence and improve supply-demand relationships [4][5]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry index is expected to perform better than the benchmark index over the next 6-12 months [25]. Core Viewpoints - In May 2025, the housing price decline pressure increased, with new home prices in 70 major cities decreasing by 0.2% month-on-month, and second-hand home prices decreasing by 0.5% month-on-month. The number of cities experiencing price declines has also increased [6][10]. - The number of cities with declining new home prices rose to 53 in May, an increase of 8 from April, with an average decline of 0.37% [6]. - The first-tier cities saw a shift in new home prices from stable to a decline of 0.2%, with significant declines in second-hand home prices, particularly in cities like Beijing and Guangzhou [6][10]. - The government has indicated a more urgent need to stabilize the real estate market, with expectations of further policy support to stimulate demand and stabilize prices [6][10]. Summary by Sections Housing Price Trends - In May 2025, new home prices in first-tier cities decreased by 0.2%, while second-hand home prices saw a more significant decline of 0.7% [6][10]. - Second-tier cities experienced a similar trend, with new home prices declining by 0.2% and second-hand home prices decreasing by 0.5% [6][10]. - Third-tier cities also faced price declines, with new home prices down by 0.3% and second-hand home prices down by 0.5% [6][10]. Market Outlook - The report suggests that the government will likely implement more aggressive policies to stabilize the real estate market, especially in light of the weak sales and investment data observed in the second quarter [6][10]. - Key investment opportunities are identified in companies with strong fundamentals in core cities, smaller firms showing significant breakthroughs, and companies benefiting from the recovery in the second-hand housing market [6][10].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry index is expected to perform better than the benchmark index over the next 6-12 months [35]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant decline in real estate sales and investment, with May's sales area dropping to 70.53 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 3.3% [1][7]. - Real estate development investment in May reached 850.4 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 12.0% [1][12]. - New construction area in May was 53.48 million square meters, down 19.3% year-on-year, although the decline rate has narrowed compared to April [1][17]. Summary by Sections 1. Sales Performance - The sales area for commercial housing in May was 70.53 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 3.3%, with the decline rate widening by 1.2 percentage points compared to April [7]. - The sales amount for May was 705.6 billion yuan, down 6.0% year-on-year, but the decline rate has narrowed by 0.7 percentage points compared to April [13]. - The average sales price of commercial housing in May was 10,004 yuan per square meter, showing a month-on-month increase of 2.5% but a year-on-year decrease of 2.8% [10]. 2. Developer Financing - Funds available to real estate companies decreased by 10.1% year-on-year to 763.6 billion yuan in May, with both sales receipts and domestic loan financing weakening [3][20]. - The year-on-year decline in sales receipts was 11.4%, while the decline in non-housing funds was 9.1% [22][28]. - The net increase in long-term loans for households was 74.6 billion yuan, with a month-on-month increase of 197.7 billion yuan [3]. 3. Investment and Construction - Real estate development investment in May was 850.4 billion yuan, down 12.0% year-on-year, with residential development investment at 655.2 billion yuan, a decline of 11.3% [1][12]. - The new construction area in May was 53.48 million square meters, down 19.3% year-on-year, remaining at historically low levels [1][17]. - The completion area in May was 27.37 million square meters, down 19.5% year-on-year, indicating a continued decline in construction activity [20]. 4. Market Outlook - The report anticipates that the sales area for commercial housing will decline by 9% year-on-year in 2025, with sales amount expected to decrease by 12% [7]. - The report suggests that the government may implement more aggressive policies to stabilize the real estate market, especially in light of the recent data trends [7]. - Key investment opportunities are identified in companies with strong fundamentals in core cities, smaller firms showing significant breakthroughs, and companies benefiting from the recovery in the second-hand housing market [7].

Core Insights - The report highlights the commitment of several automotive companies to a "60-day payment term" for suppliers, which is expected to enhance supply chain efficiency and promote healthy industry development [5][6][7]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3388.73, up by 0.35% - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10163.55, up by 0.41% - The CSI 300 Index closed at 3873.80, up by 0.25% - The Small and Medium-sized 100 Index closed at 6362.25, up by 0.37% - The ChiNext Index closed at 2057.32, up by 0.66% [3]. Industry Performance - The media sector saw an increase of 2.70% - The communication sector increased by 2.11% - The computer sector rose by 1.99% - The real estate sector increased by 1.85% - The agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector decreased by 0.76% - The beauty and personal care sector decreased by 0.49% - The non-ferrous metals sector decreased by 0.43% - The textile and apparel sector decreased by 0.33% - The pharmaceutical and biological sector decreased by 0.28% [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on automotive parts companies as potential investment opportunities due to the positive implications of the "60-day payment term" [7].