Economic Performance - In May, industrial added value increased by 5.8% year-on-year, slightly above the consensus forecast of 5.7%[4] - Retail sales of consumer goods grew by 6.4% year-on-year in May, exceeding expectations and up 1.3 percentage points from April[10] - Fixed asset investment showed a cumulative year-on-year growth of 3.7% from January to May, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous period[18] Sector Analysis - Manufacturing investment from January to May rose by 8.5% year-on-year, while real estate investment fell by 10.7%[21] - The cumulative year-on-year decline in real estate new construction area was 22.8%, with completed area down by 17.3%[22] - High-tech industries saw a cumulative year-on-year growth of 9.5% in industrial added value from January to May[6] Policy Implications - The importance of stabilizing domestic demand is emphasized, especially with external uncertainties remaining high[30] - Active fiscal policies are being accelerated, with government bond financing continuing to grow significantly[30] - The government is focusing on measures to stabilize the real estate market and boost consumer spending[30] Risks - Potential risks include a resurgence of global inflation and a faster-than-expected economic slowdown in Europe and the U.S.[30]

Market Performance - A-shares experienced an overall decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.3% and the CSI 1000 down 0.8% for the week[2] - The Hang Seng Index rose slightly by 0.4%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 0.9%[2] - The S&P 500 Index decreased by 0.4% and the Nasdaq 100 Index fell by 0.6% during the week[2] Sector Performance - The metals, petrochemical, and agriculture sectors led gains, while food and beverage, home appliances, and construction sectors lagged[2] - The pharmaceutical sector rose by 1.4%, marking its eighth consecutive week of gains[2] Trading Volume and Valuation - Average daily trading volume increased to 1.37 trillion yuan, up 13% from the previous week[4] - The turnover rate for the entire A-share market was 1.6%, with a Z-score increase from 0.4 to 0.8, indicating higher trading activity compared to the historical average[4] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the Shanghai Composite Index was 12.7, while the CSI 1000 had a P/E ratio of 39.9[4] Bond Market and Economic Indicators - The bond market showed low volatility, with the central bank injecting 173.8 billion yuan into the market on June 9, leading to a decrease in the DR007 rate to 1.54%[4] - Social financing growth remained stable at 8.7%, with a slight decline in new loans and M2 growth compared to the previous month[4] Commodity Market - The US dollar index fell by 1.1%, while the offshore RMB appreciated slightly by 0.02% against the dollar, closing at 7.19[4] - Gold prices surged by 3.7% to $3,433 per ounce, driven by geopolitical tensions following Israel's attack on Iran[4] - WTI crude oil prices increased by 13.0%, reaching $73.2 per barrel, marking the largest weekly gain since November 2022[4]

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - The transaction area of new and second-hand homes has turned positive on a month-on-month and year-on-year basis, indicating a recovery in the market [1][5] - Local governments are implementing measures to boost consumption and meet housing demand, including urban village renovations and increased support for housing provident fund withdrawals [1] - The inventory of new homes and the de-stocking cycle have increased month-on-month, while showing a year-on-year decline [1] Summary by Sections 1. Key City New Home Market, Second-Hand Home Market, and Inventory Tracking - New home transaction area in 40 cities reached 2.1 million square meters, up 13.0% month-on-month and 2.3% year-on-year [1][16] - Second-hand home transaction area in 18 cities was 179.7 million square meters, up 30.5% month-on-month and 15.4% year-on-year [1][5] - New home inventory in 12 cities was 87.88 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4% and a year-on-year decrease of 16.4% [1][40] 2. Land Market Tracking - The total area of land transactions in 100 cities was 804.9 million square meters, down 57.5% month-on-month but up 4.9% year-on-year [1][12] - The total land transaction price was 26.7 billion yuan, down 29.4% month-on-month but up 44.2% year-on-year [1][12] - The average floor price of land was 3,318 yuan per square meter, up 66.4% month-on-month and 37.5% year-on-year [1][12] 3. Policy Review - Jiangsu Province has announced measures to stimulate consumption, including urban village renovations and increased housing provident fund support [1] - Chengdu has implemented a new regulation for the supervision of pre-sale funds for commercial housing [1] - Guangzhou has proposed a plan to boost consumption, focusing on the renovation of old residential areas and optimizing housing provident fund policies [1] 4. Company Announcements - The report highlights the performance of several real estate companies, suggesting a focus on those with strong sales and land reserves in core cities [5] - Companies such as Binjiang Group, Greentown China, and China Resources Land are identified as having high market share in key cities [5] - The report also notes the increasing issuance of domestic bonds by real estate companies, with a total issuance of 12.7 billion yuan, up 55.8% month-on-month [1][54]

Investment Rating - The report rates the transportation industry as "Outperforming the Market" [1] Core Insights - The escalation of conflicts in the Middle East has raised concerns about risk premiums in the oil transportation market, while shipping rates on the US West Coast have significantly declined [2][13] - In May, China National Airlines reported an 8.4% year-on-year increase in passenger turnover, and Pudong International Airport saw a 13.03% increase in passenger throughput [2][15] - Cainiao has opened a new overseas warehouse in Canada, contributing to a 5.7% year-on-year increase in China's express delivery development index in May [2][22] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Hot Events - The Middle East conflict has led to a notable increase in oil prices, with WTI crude reaching $72.98 per barrel and Brent crude at $74.23 per barrel, indicating a rise in risk premiums for oil transportation [2][13] - The Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) reported a decrease of 7.9% to 1536.8 points, with 13 out of 21 major routes experiencing declines. The US West Coast route saw a dramatic drop of 31.5% [2][14] - China National Airlines reported an 8.4% increase in passenger turnover for May, while Pudong International Airport's passenger throughput reached 7.0742 million, up 13.03% year-on-year [2][15][16] - Cainiao's new overseas warehouse in Canada enhances its logistics capabilities, contributing to a 5.7% increase in the express delivery development index [2][22][24] 2. Industry High-Frequency Data Tracking - The air cargo price index for Shanghai showed a year-on-year decrease of 5.0%, while the Baltic Air Freight Price Index decreased by 4.8% [25] - Domestic cargo flights decreased by 6.76% year-on-year in May, while international flights increased by 26.98% [32] - The SCFI index reported a 6.79% week-on-week decline, with a year-on-year drop of 38.20% [37] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) increased by 20.51% week-on-week, indicating a recovery in dry bulk shipping rates [41] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the equipment and manufacturing export chain, recommending companies such as COSCO Shipping, China Merchants Energy Shipping, and Huamao Logistics [4] - It highlights investment opportunities in the low-altitude economy, road and rail sectors, and the cruise and ferry segments, recommending companies like Sichuan Chengyu, Jiangxi Guangdong Expressway, and Bohai Ferry [4] - In the express delivery sector, it recommends companies such as SF Express, Jitu Express, and Yunda Express, while also suggesting attention to Zhongtong Express and Shentong Express [4]

Investment Rating - The report rates the banking sector as "Outperforming the Market" [1] Core Insights - The banking sector index increased by 0.42% this week, following a 1.56% rise last week, ranking 9th out of 31 sectors, an improvement of 3 positions from the previous week [1][13] - Year-to-date, the banking sector has risen by 9.84%, ranking third among all sectors, with dividends being a key focus for investment value [1] - Recommended banks for investment include China Merchants Bank, Agricultural Bank of China, and Jiangsu Bank [1] Summary by Sections Banking Sector and Stock Performance - The A-share banking index rose this week, with 25 out of 42 banks seeing stock price increases. State-owned banks had an average decline of 0.80%, while joint-stock banks increased by 1.53% [2][12] - Over the past month, state-owned banks have seen a decline of 1.36%, while joint-stock banks have increased by 5.86% [2][16] - The highest AH share premium was observed for Zhengzhou Bank at 112.40%, while China Merchants Bank had a negative premium of -4.71% [2][16] Funding Price Situation - The central bank's reverse repo operations decreased, with a net withdrawal of 727 billion yuan this week [3][30] - The overnight SHIBOR rate remained stable at 1.41%, while the 7-day SHIBOR rate increased by 1 basis point to 1.51% [3][33] - The overnight repo rate for the interbank market rose to 1.46%, up by 1 basis point, with a weekly transaction volume of 35.50 trillion yuan [3][33] Bond Market Situation - Total bond market financing reached 25,863 billion yuan this week, with net financing increasing by 1,030.3 billion yuan compared to last week [4][45] - The issuance of interbank certificates of deposit increased significantly, with 10,413.7 billion yuan issued, up by 4,551.8 billion yuan from the previous week [4][45] - Government bond yields for 1-year and 10-year bonds were 1.40% and 1.64%, respectively, both down by 1 basis point from last week [5][47]

Investment Rating - The report rates the chemical industry as "Outperform" [2] Core Views - The chemical industry has been significantly impacted by tariff-related policies and fluctuations in crude oil prices. Key areas of focus for June include safety regulations affecting the pesticide and intermediate sectors, performance volatility due to export dynamics, the importance of self-sufficiency in electronic materials, and stable dividend policies in energy companies [4][11] - The report suggests a medium to long-term investment strategy focusing on high oil prices, robust performance in the oil and gas extraction sector, and the growth potential in new materials, particularly in electronic and renewable energy materials [4][11] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - As of June 15, the TTM price-to-earnings ratio for the SW basic chemicals sector is 22.21, at the 62.94 percentile historically, while the price-to-book ratio is 1.81, at the 12.56 percentile historically. For the SW oil and petrochemical sector, the TTM price-to-earnings ratio is 11.50, at the 21.43 percentile historically, and the price-to-book ratio is 1.22, at the 4.50 percentile historically [4][11] Price Changes - In the week of June 9-15, among 100 tracked chemical products, 23 saw price increases, 47 saw decreases, and 30 remained stable. The products with the highest weekly price increases included hydrochloric acid (up 31%), WTI crude oil, and methanol, while those with the largest decreases included liquid chlorine and TDI [10][27] Oil Market Insights - International oil prices saw significant increases, with WTI crude oil futures closing at $72.98 per barrel, a weekly increase of 13.01%, and Brent crude at $74.23 per barrel, up 11.67%. The report notes that U.S. oil production has increased, and demand for gasoline and distillates has risen [28] TDI and Methionine Prices - TDI prices have dropped significantly, with the average price at 11,300 CNY per ton, down 8.87% from the previous week. The report indicates that demand from downstream industries remains weak, with limited new orders [29] - Conversely, methionine prices have risen to 22.20 CNY per kilogram, up 1.05% from the previous week, driven by supply constraints and increased production costs [30]

Core Insights - The report highlights that the economic growth target for 2025 remains unchanged at around 5%, with monetary policy tasks also remaining consistent [6][9] - The financial data for May indicates that new social financing (社融) slightly exceeded expectations, while new RMB loans were slightly below expectations, reflecting a mixed outlook for corporate financing demand [6][9] Macroeconomic Overview - In May, new social financing amounted to 2.29 trillion yuan, an increase of 227.1 billion yuan year-on-year, and higher than the expected 2.05 trillion yuan [6][7] - The stock of social financing grew by 8.7% year-on-year, maintaining the same growth rate as April, but slightly below the expected 8.8% [6][7] - The growth rates for M0, M1, and M2 in May were 12.1%, 2.3%, and 7.9% respectively, with M1 increasing by 0.8 percentage points compared to April [7][8] Financing Structure - The report notes a shift in the structure of social financing, with government bonds seeing an increase in proportion, while RMB loans and bills saw a decrease [7][8] - The trend of "deposit migration" continues, with financial institutions reporting an increase of 2.18 trillion yuan in new deposits in May, up by 500 billion yuan year-on-year [8] Corporate Financing Demand - There is a noted weakness in corporate loan demand, with new loans totaling 620 billion yuan in May, reflecting a decline in short-term and residential loans compared to the previous year [8][9] - The report suggests that internal demand is weak, influenced by unclear U.S. tariff expectations and downward revisions of global economic growth forecasts by international institutions [8][9] Industry Performance - The report provides insights into industry performance, with sectors such as oil and petrochemicals showing positive growth, while sectors like beauty care and media experienced declines [4]

策略研究 | 证券研究报告 — 总量点评 2025 年 6 月 16 日 市场点评报告 车企承诺" 60 天账期"，供应链迎重构契机 车企"60 天账期"承诺有望提升供应链效率，但执行仍面临旧有惯性和转型 挑战。 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 策略研究 证券分析师：王君 (8610)66229061 jun.wang@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300519060003 证券分析师：徐沛东 (8621)20328702 peidong.xu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300518020001 车企"60 天账期"承诺，促进产业健康发展。6 月 10 日晚至 11 日凌晨， 广汽集团、中国一汽、东风汽车、赛力斯、吉利汽车、比亚迪汽车等多 家车企集体发声，承诺供应商账期不超过 60 天，以保障供应链资金高效 周转，助力产业链良好协同发展。此次国内车企集体发声，是响应 2025 年 6 月 1 日施行的《保障中小企业款项支付条例》。 "60 天账期"的调整对汽车行业及其供应链带来了积极影响。首先，缩 短账期有效减轻了供应商的资金压力 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating an expectation that the industry index will perform better than the benchmark index over the next 6-12 months [30]. Core Insights - ByteDance launched several new products at the Volcano Engine Force conference, including the Doubao model 1.6 and the Seedance 1.0 pro video generation model, which has shown outstanding performance in complex reasoning and multi-turn dialogue tests [11][12]. - The Doubao model has a daily token usage exceeding 16.4 trillion, with a market share of 46.4% in China's public cloud model market, leading the sector [12]. - The new generation of domestic optical quantum computer "TurningQ Gen2" was showcased at the Shanghai International Technology Fair, demonstrating computational power comparable to top supercomputers while being energy-efficient and compact [13][14]. - NVIDIA plans to build over 20 AI factories in Europe to enhance AI computing power by tenfold by 2026, collaborating with Mistral AI to create a comprehensive AI ecosystem [15][16]. Summary by Sections Company Developments - iFlytek held a product upgrade conference, launching the upgraded version of its intelligent interaction product, which enhances multilingual capabilities and integrates code generation features [22]. - Suzhou Technology disclosed that its high-precision Lovesim simulation engine has been applied in various aerospace control systems [22]. Investment Recommendations - Attention is recommended for companies in the ByteDance supply chain, including Dazhi Technology, Borui Data, and others, due to the strong market position of the Doubao model [4].

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