Inflation Overview - July CPI year-on-year growth slightly exceeded consensus expectations, while PPI year-on-year growth fell below expectations[1] - July CPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month, remaining flat year-on-year, with core CPI rising by 0.8%[2] - Service prices rose by 0.5% year-on-year, while consumer goods prices fell by 0.4%[2] CPI Analysis - Year-on-year growth in July was driven by other goods and services (8.0%), clothing (1.7%), and healthcare (0.5%), while food and tobacco prices fell by 0.8%[2] - Food prices contributed to a 0.29 percentage point decline in CPI year-on-year, with gold and platinum jewelry prices adding 0.22 percentage points to CPI growth[2] - Service prices accounted for approximately 0.26 percentage points of the month-on-month CPI increase, representing over 60% of the total CPI rise[6] PPI Insights - July PPI decreased by 0.2% month-on-month and 3.6% year-on-year, with the decline in production materials contributing significantly[15] - The month-on-month decline in PPI was the first narrowing since March, influenced by seasonal factors and international trade uncertainties[16] - The overall PPI decline was impacted by eight industries, which collectively contributed approximately 0.24 percentage points to the PPI decrease[16] Future Outlook - The second half of the year is expected to see a narrowing of the PPI year-on-year decline due to improved supply-demand relationships in certain industries[20] - Seasonal and policy factors may cause fluctuations in various price segments, particularly in food and durable goods[7] - Risks include potential global inflation resurgence and rapid economic downturns in Europe and the U.S.[30]

Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) closed at 24,859, down 0.9% for the day but up 23.9% year-to-date (YTD) [1] - The HSCEI closed at 8,895, down 1.0% for the day and up 22.0% YTD [1] - The MSCI China index decreased by 0.8% to 80, with a YTD increase of 23.0% [1] Commodity Prices - Brent Crude oil price was $66 per barrel, down 0.4% for the day and down 8.3% YTD [2] - Gold prices reached $3,395 per ounce, down 0.1% for the day but up 29.3% YTD [2] - Copper prices increased by 0.8% to $9,762 per ton, with a YTD rise of 11.3% [2] Economic Indicators - The US CPI for urban consumers showed a month-over-month increase of 0.2% and a year-over-year increase of 2.8% [3] - The PPI for final demand increased by 0.2% month-over-month and 2.5% year-over-year [3] - The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index was reported at 98.6, slightly below the consensus of 98.9 [3] Corporate Insights - SMIC reported a 16% year-over-year revenue increase in Q2 2025, with a gross profit margin (GPM) of 20.4% [10] - However, SMIC's Q3 2025 revenue guidance was conservative, projecting a 6% quarter-over-quarter increase, below the consensus of 7% [11] - The target price for SMIC has been raised to HK$56.70 based on a price-to-book ratio of 2.8x [12]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with a previous rating of "Not Rated" [1]. Core Views - The company is recognized as a high-quality player in the polyether industry, with rapid growth in production and sales. The report anticipates a promising future for the company's new materials business and the continued expansion of its polyether product advantages [4][6]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, Shandong Longhua New Materials Co., Ltd., specializes in the production of high-performance, environmentally friendly polyethers. It has established a multi-layered product system, including soft foam polyethers, end-amino polyethers, and polyamide resins [16][18]. Financial Performance - From 2019 to 2024, the company's revenue grew from 2.026 billion RMB to 5.624 billion RMB, with a CAGR of 22.65%. The net profit attributable to shareholders increased from 93 million RMB to 171 million RMB, with a CAGR of 12.93% [24]. In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.509 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 11.52% [24]. Industry Outlook - The polyether industry is expected to recover, with leading companies likely to benefit from improved market conditions. The report notes that the domestic competition landscape is optimizing, and the global competitiveness of the polyether industry is increasing [40][54]. Product Development - The company has a total polyether production capacity of 970,000 tons/year, with an additional 330,000 tons/year project under construction. The report highlights the company's core product, POP, which has a significant contribution to revenue and profitability [60][28]. Growth Projections - The report forecasts the company's net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 to be 188 million RMB, 314 million RMB, and 514 million RMB, respectively. The corresponding PE ratios are projected to be 28.6, 17.1, and 10.5 times [6][8]. Market Position - The company is positioned among the top players in the polyether industry, with a market share that is expected to increase as the industry consolidates. The report indicates that the CR5 of the polyether industry rose from 38.5% in 2022 to 48% in 2024 [54][54]. Future Prospects - The company is actively expanding its product matrix, particularly in the nylon 66 value chain, with a long-term production target of 1.08 million tons/year. The first phase of the nylon 66 project is already in trial production [23][24]. Valuation - The report provides a valuation based on projected earnings and market conditions, indicating a favorable outlook for the company's stock performance in the coming years [6][8].

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "Outperform" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the real estate market is experiencing a transition from quantity to quality, with a focus on structural optimization in 2025 [2][4] - It notes that the sales and investment declines are widening, although the decrease in construction starts and completions has narrowed [2][4] - The report emphasizes the importance of urban renewal as a key strategy to stabilize the real estate market and stimulate demand [2][4] Summary by Sections 1. Key City New Housing Market, Second-hand Housing Market, and Inventory Tracking - New housing transaction area has shifted from positive to negative month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline expanding [17] - In 40 cities, new housing transaction area was 158.8 million square meters, down 28.9% month-on-month and down 15.5% year-on-year [18][25] - Second-hand housing transaction area also saw an increase in both month-on-month and year-on-year declines [47] 2. Land Market Tracking - Total land transaction area across 100 cities was 1,616.5 million square meters, up 42.6% month-on-month but down 1.1% year-on-year [62][66] - Total land transaction value was 41.77 billion yuan, down 24.6% month-on-month but up 44.7% year-on-year [68] - The average floor price of land was 2,583.9 yuan per square meter, down 47.1% month-on-month but up 46.4% year-on-year [63][66] 3. Policy Overview - Recent policy adjustments in major cities aim to optimize housing purchase limits and increase public housing loan support [2][4] - Beijing has lifted restrictions on the number of properties that can be purchased outside the Fifth Ring Road, which is expected to stimulate demand [2][4] 4. Company Performance Review - The report indicates that the real estate sector's absolute return was 2.2%, an increase of 5.6 percentage points from the previous week [15] - The sector's price-to-earnings ratio (PE) is reported at 25.52X, up 0.49X from the previous week [15]

计算机 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2025 年 8 月 11 日 AI 应用又迎催化 计算机行业"一周解码" 近日，OpenAI 正式发布新一代大模型 GPT-5，大模型领域竞争进一步加剧； 2025 世界机器人大会开幕，寻找能够创造实际价值的刚需场景是拉开各机器 人厂商竞争差距的关键，机器人零部件的需求相对确定；谷歌 DeepMind 实 验室发布 Genie 3 人工智能模型，为 AI 模型创建更高质量的训练环境。 支撑评级的要点 【软通动力】公司于 2025 年 8 月 6 日收到深交所出具的《关于受理软通动力信 息技术（集团）股份有限公司向特定对象发行股票申请文件的通知》（深证上审 〔2025〕146 号），确认其报送的定向增发申请文件已获受理。 【用友网络】公司于 2024 年 9 月 5 日~2025 年 9 月 4 日实施回购股份，预计金额 5000 万~1 亿元，用途为员工持股计划或股权激励。累计回购：414.409 万股，金 额 5006.2199 万元，价格区间 9.87~18.44 元/ 评级面临的主要风险 技术创新不及预期；政策推行不到位；下游需求景气度不稳定的风险。 相关研究报 ...

Macro Economic Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.23% this week, with the CSI 300 futures increasing by 1.38% [1][12] - The futures for coking coal surged by 9.37%, while the main contract for iron ore saw a modest increase of 0.70% [1][12] - The annualized yield of Yu'ebao increased by 1 basis point to 1.05%, and the yield on ten-year government bonds decreased by 2 basis points to 1.69% [1][12] Export Performance - In July, China's exports maintained resilience, primarily due to two factors: the continuation of Sino-U.S. trade talks and improvements in the prices of certain export goods [2] - Specific categories such as household ceramics, shoes, integrated circuits, and home appliances showed price increases, which helped offset declines in export volumes [2] Asset Allocation Recommendations - The recommended order for asset allocation remains: equities > commodities > bonds > cash [3][4] - The focus for equities is on the implementation of "incremental" policies, while bonds are underweighted due to potential short-term impacts from the equity-bond relationship [4][13] Industry Insights - The A-share market saw widespread index increases, with the leading indices being the CSI 1000 (up 2.51%), Shanghai Dividend (up 2.23%), and Shanghai Composite (up 2.11%) [37] - The sectors that performed well included non-ferrous metals (up 5.83%), machinery (up 5.75%), and defense industry (up 5.24%), while the pharmaceutical and restaurant tourism sectors experienced slight declines [37][38] Economic Data - In July, the Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.4% month-on-month [24] - The total value of China's goods trade in July reached 3.91 trillion yuan, with exports growing by 8% and imports by 4.8% [24] High-Tech Industry Developments - The 2025 World Robot Conference opened in Beijing, focusing on key areas such as aging society responses and smart manufacturing upgrades [39] - China's production of industrial and service robots saw significant year-on-year growth, with industrial robots increasing by 35.6% [39][40]

Group 1: Stock Market Overview - The A-share market, Hong Kong stocks, and US stocks all experienced an increase this week, with the A-share index (CSI 300) rising by 1.2% over the past week, 2.2% over the past month, and 4.3% year-to-date [20][21][22] - The performance of various indices includes the CSI 500 rising by 1.8% weekly and the ChiNext index increasing by 0.5% [21][22] Group 2: A-share Style and Crowding Degree - Growth style continues to show low crowding and excess returns, with a weekly excess of -0.9% and a year-to-date excess of 3.0% [26][27] - Small-cap stocks outperformed large-cap stocks with a weekly excess of 0.7% and a year-to-date excess of 7.3% [26][27] - Micro-cap stocks showed a significant outperformance against fund-heavy stocks, with a year-to-date excess return of 46.1% [26][27] Group 3: A-share Valuation and Equity-Debt Ratio - The current PE_TTM of the A-share market is at a historically high percentile of 82%, indicating a marginal upward trend [64] - The CSI 300's valuation is at a high percentile of 69%, while the CSI 500 is at 62%, and the ChiNext is at a low percentile of 17% [64][71] - Sectors with extremely low valuations include consumption (10%) and real estate (11%), while sectors with extremely high valuations include pharmaceuticals (86%) and electronics (81%) [71]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a market price of RMB 135.00 and a sector rating of "Outperform" [1][3]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the PCB expansion wave driven by AI, as the CoWoP technology pushes for upgrades in PCB processes, leading to increased demand for drilling equipment [3][8]. - The company is actively entering the drilling equipment sector to establish a second growth curve, maintaining a "Buy" rating [3][5]. Financial Projections - The company's revenue is projected to grow significantly, with estimates of RMB 1,479 million in 2025, representing a growth rate of 55.1% [7]. - The EPS estimates have been raised to RMB 2.21 for 2025, RMB 3.25 for 2026, and RMB 4.17 for 2027, reflecting increases of 5.7%, 18.2%, and 23.7% respectively [5][7]. - The company's total market capitalization is approximately RMB 178 billion, with corresponding PE ratios of 61.2, 41.5, and 32.4 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 [5][7]. Market Dynamics - The global market for multilayer boards and HDI boards is expected to reach USD 24.21 billion and USD 12.518 billion in 2024, with growth rates of 40.2% and 18.8% respectively, driven by demand from AI servers and high-speed network devices [8]. - The company is launching new drilling equipment, which is anticipated to help penetrate the new market segment and further expand growth opportunities [8].

Investment Rating - The report rates the chemical industry as "Outperform" [2] Core Views - The report highlights the impact of fluctuating international oil prices and the recent price changes in titanium dioxide and refrigerants, suggesting a focus on mid-year earnings reports and the influence of supply-side factors in related sub-industries [2][3][11] - It emphasizes the importance of self-sufficiency in electronic materials companies and the stability of dividend policies in energy enterprises [11] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - In the week of August 4-10, 2025, among 100 tracked chemical products, 18 saw price increases, 39 experienced declines, and 43 remained stable. 38% of products had month-on-month price increases, while 56% saw decreases [10][31] - International oil prices fell, with WTI crude oil closing at $63.88 per barrel, down 5.12% for the week, and Brent crude at $66.59 per barrel, down 4.42% [10][32] - Titanium dioxide prices decreased to an average of 13,302 RMB/ton, down 1.10% from the previous week, with a year-to-date decline of 7.24% [10][33] - Refrigerant prices increased, with R32 averaging 56,500 RMB/ton, up 2.73% week-on-week and 31.40% year-to-date [10] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on mid-year earnings, the impact of "anti-involution" on supply in related sub-industries, and the importance of self-sufficiency in electronic materials [11] - Long-term investment themes include the sustained high demand in the oil and gas extraction sector, the rapid development of downstream industries, and the potential for recovery in demand supported by policy [11] - Recommended stocks include China Petroleum, China Oilfield Services, and several technology and chemical companies [11] Key Stocks for August - The report identifies Satellite Chemical and Anji Technology as key stocks for August, highlighting their strong performance and growth potential [12][18]

Macro Economic Overview - In July, China's export year-on-year growth rate continued to show positive growth, with a 6.1% increase from January to July, which is a 0.2 percentage point acceleration compared to the first half of the year. Imports decreased by 2.7%, with the decline narrowing by 1.1 percentage points compared to the first half of the year. The trade surplus reached 683.51 billion USD [6][7] - In July, exports grew by 7.2% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 1.3 percentage points. Imports increased by 4.1% year-on-year, showing a significant month-on-month acceleration of 3.0 percentage points. The trade surplus for July was 98.24 billion USD [6][7] Trade Partners Analysis - ASEAN and EU continued to support China's export growth in July, contributing 2.6 and 1.4 percentage points respectively to the year-on-year growth rate. In contrast, exports to the US decreased by 21.7%, which was a 5.5 percentage point increase in the decline compared to the previous month [7][8] - The total import and export volume with ASEAN in July was 86.03 billion USD, with exports increasing by 16.6% year-on-year. The total with the EU was 74.55 billion USD, with exports rising by 9.2% year-on-year [7] Industry Performance - The overall activity in the A-share merger and acquisition market has decreased, with 50 disclosed merger events totaling 209.01 billion RMB from July 21 to August 3. This represents a decline in both the number and value of significant mergers compared to the previous period [10] - The real estate management and development, basic chemicals, electronic equipment, and textile sectors are highlighted as active areas for mergers and acquisitions [10] Key Stocks - The report lists key stocks for August, including SF Holding (002352.SZ), Satellite Chemical (002648.SZ), and others, indicating potential investment opportunities in these companies [5]