宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量周报 2025 年 5 月 11 日 周度金融市场跟踪 本周 A 股呈现普涨行情，债市震荡分化走陡 （ 5 月 5 日 -5 月 9 日） 股票方面，五一节后本周 A 股 4 个交易日，呈现普涨行情，其中小盘股走势更强。 全周累计看，沪深 300 上涨 2.0%、中证1000 上涨 2.2%、中证 2000 上涨 3.6%、微盘 股指数上涨 5.7%，已是连续 4 周上涨。港股恒生指数上涨 1.6%，恒生科技指数下跌 1.2%。行业方面，本周 31 个一级行业指数本周全部收涨，国防军工、通信和电力设 备领涨。周内看，5 月 2 日商务部表示美方近期通过相关方面多次主动向中方传递信 息，希望与中方谈起来。对此，中方正在进行评估。受此新闻影响，周二（5 月 6 日） 市场高开高走，当天超 4900 只个股上涨。周三（5 月 7 日）早晨外交部公告何立峰 副总理将于 5 月 9 日-12 日访问瑞士，期间与美方举行会谈。当天上午九点国新办召 开新闻发布会，介绍"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"有关情况，发布会上人民 银行潘行长公布了包括降准降息在内的三大类共十项货币政策措施。当天 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the power equipment and new energy industry [1]. Core Insights - Lithium carbonate prices continue to decline, with a significant drop of over 1,800 RMB/ton after the May Day holiday, now around 65,000 RMB/ton [2][23]. - In the photovoltaic sector, China's first-quarter installations showed rapid growth, and demand from the U.S. and emerging economies remains optimistic [1]. - The central economic work conference emphasizes the need for comprehensive rectification of "involution" competition, suggesting stronger supply-side reforms in the photovoltaic industry [1]. - Wind power projects are expected to progress steadily, with demand improving by 2025, potentially restoring profitability in the complete machine and component sectors [1]. - The government report highlights the strong development of smart connected new energy vehicles, with annual sales expected to maintain high growth, driving demand for batteries and materials [1]. - Solid-state battery industrialization is anticipated to continue, with mass production expected by 2027, benefiting companies involved in batteries, materials, and equipment [1]. - The domestic push for electricity system reform is likely to accelerate the construction of ultra-high voltage and main grid projects, maintaining high demand for related grid equipment [1]. - Hydrogen energy policies are promoting industrial development, with applications in green hydrogen and chemicals expected to open up new opportunities [1]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The power equipment and new energy sector saw a 4.02% increase this week, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [10]. - The lithium battery index rose by 6.90%, while the nuclear power sector increased by 5.02% [13]. Key Industry Information - SNE Research reported that global power battery installation reached 221.8 GWh in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 38.8% [2][23]. - The China Passenger Car Association estimates that wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in April reached 1.14 million units, a 42% year-on-year increase [23]. Company Developments - Ningde Times became the first company to pass the new national standard for electric vehicle batteries [23]. - Longpan Technology signed a strategic cooperation agreement for the procurement of lithium iron phosphate materials, with a total sales amount expected to exceed 5 billion RMB [2].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a market price of RMB 71.20 and a sector rating of "Outperform" [1] Core Views - The company is expected to turn profitable in 2024, driven by the success of its "subscription business" and "channel-first" dual transformation strategy [1][5] - The company reported a revenue of RMB 711 million in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.44%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 27 million, marking a turnaround from losses [3][5] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company achieved a revenue of RMB 711 million, with a growth rate of 16.4% compared to 2023 [7] - The net profit for 2024 was RMB 27 million, a significant recovery from a loss of RMB 91 million in 2023, indicating a growth rate of 5,114.8% [7] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected at RMB 0.29, with further increases expected in subsequent years [5][7] Subscription Business Growth - The company launched a new subscription plan in 2024, leading to an Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) of RMB 411 million, which is a 64.42% increase year-on-year [8] - Subscription revenue accounted for 49.31% of total revenue in 2024, demonstrating the effectiveness of the subscription-first strategy [8] Channel Development - The company has made significant progress in channel development, particularly in the Asia-Pacific and Middle East regions, with revenue growth of 53.42% and 24.02% respectively [8] - Channel revenue for 2024 reached RMB 292 million, representing 41.05% of total revenue [8] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are RMB 807 million, RMB 904 million, and RMB 1,008 million respectively, with corresponding net profits of RMB 45 million, RMB 65 million, and RMB 93 million [5][7] - The company is expected to maintain a strong growth trajectory with a focus on subscription and channel strategies [5][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the near term [1][5]. Core Views - The company has demonstrated high growth in performance, with strong progress in product research, validation, and ramp-up, leading to an optimistic outlook [1][5]. - The company reported a revenue of RMB 1.835 billion for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 48.24%, and a net profit of RMB 534 million, up 32.51% year-on-year [8][9]. - The report highlights the steady increase in market share for the company's polishing liquids, with a global market share rising from approximately 7% to 11% over the past three years [8]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of RMB 1,835 million, with a growth rate of 48.24% compared to 2023 [9]. - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 58.45%, an increase of 2.64 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 29.08%, a decrease of 3.45 percentage points [8]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of RMB 545.28 million, a year-on-year increase of 44.08%, and a net profit of RMB 168.83 million, up 60.66% year-on-year [11]. Market Position and Growth Prospects - The company’s polishing liquid revenue reached RMB 1.545 billion in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 43.73% and a gross margin of 61.16% [8]. - The global semiconductor CMP polishing materials market is projected to grow from USD 3.42 billion in 2024 to USD 3.62 billion in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.6% from 2024 to 2028 [8]. - The company’s functional wet electronic chemicals segment saw revenue growth of 78.91% in 2024, indicating strong demand and market expansion [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1][5] Core Views - The company has shown significant growth in its cobalt and copper product sales, with a year-on-year increase in shipments and a diversified product range [3][8] - The company reported a net profit of 202 million RMB for 2024, representing a 45.85% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 43 million RMB for Q1 2025, up 39.77% year-on-year [8] Financial Summary - The company’s revenue for 2024 is projected to be 5,950 million RMB, a 24.2% increase from 2023, with a net profit of 202 million RMB, reflecting a 45.9% growth [7][9] - For Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1,501 million RMB, a 14.56% increase compared to Q1 2024, with a net profit of 43 million RMB, up 39.77% [10] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is adjusted to 0.99 RMB, with projected P/E ratios of 33.4, 25.3, and 19.9 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5][11] Product and Market Development - The company has expanded its copper and cobalt production capacity, with copper production reaching 53,300 tons and cobalt production increasing by 94.78% to 16,200 tons in 2024 [8] - The company is also developing nickel resources, with a new project in Indonesia aimed at producing 20,000 tons of nickel annually, enhancing its position in the new energy materials sector [8]

Key Insights - The report highlights a selection of stocks for May, including companies like SF Holding, Jitu Express, and Guizhou Moutai, indicating potential investment opportunities in various sectors [1] - The report emphasizes the need for the power equipment industry to adapt to the increasing demand for grid expansion and upgrades due to the rise of new energy installations and data centers [7][8] - The report notes that the AI text recognition and commercial big data sectors are experiencing growth, with companies like Hehe Information positioned to benefit from increasing user demand and favorable policies [11][13] Group 1: Power Equipment Industry - The global power system is facing new challenges, necessitating upgrades and expansions in the grid to accommodate rising electricity demand from new energy sources and emerging technologies [7] - The report anticipates significant investment in high-voltage transmission lines, with over 20 new lines expected to be operational by 2025, which will drive demand for related equipment [8] - The domestic and international push for distribution network upgrades is expected to increase transformer demand, with China holding a 35% share of global transformer production [9] Group 2: AI and Big Data Sector - Hehe Information is recognized as a leading player in AI text recognition, with a strong C-end user base and a growing market presence, particularly in the commercial big data space [11][12] - The company has seen consistent revenue growth, with a projected annual compound growth rate of 16.5% in the smart text recognition service market from 2023 to 2030 [12] - The synergy between B-end and C-end services is expected to enhance the company's competitive edge, with a focus on expanding into overseas markets [13] Group 3: Wind Power Industry - The report indicates that Haile Wind Power is positioned to benefit from the gradual release of offshore wind installation demand, despite facing challenges in 2024 due to project delays [19][21] - The company reported a significant revenue increase of 251.5% year-on-year in Q1 2025, reflecting improved performance as offshore projects commence [21] - The report highlights the company's robust production capacity and ongoing expansion plans, which are expected to support future growth in the offshore wind sector [21]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1][4][6] Core Views - The company is the largest manufacturer of battery aluminum foil globally, with significant scale advantages, and is expected to see revenue and profit growth in the future [4] - The company has experienced a notable increase in overseas revenue, indicating a successful global expansion strategy [4][9] - The forecast for earnings per share (EPS) has been adjusted downwards due to a decrease in aluminum foil processing fees, with projected EPS for 2025-2027 being 0.53, 0.64, and 0.77 RMB respectively [6][8] Financial Summary - The company reported a revenue of 24,022 million RMB in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 26.01%, but a net profit of 301 million RMB, down 43.70% [9][10] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 6,456.62 million RMB, up 26.08% year-on-year, with a net profit of 85.27 million RMB, reflecting a significant increase of 179.93% [11] - The company’s aluminum foil product sales reached 816,100 tons in 2024, a 29.00% increase year-on-year, contributing to a revenue of 19,989 million RMB [9][10] - The overseas revenue for 2024 was 8,850 million RMB, marking a 55.35% increase, showcasing the company's effective global strategy [9][10] Valuation Metrics - The adjusted forecast for diluted EPS for 2025-2027 is 0.53, 0.64, and 0.77 RMB, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 16.4, 13.5, and 11.3 [6][8] - The company’s projected revenue for 2025 is 26,379 million RMB, with a growth rate of 9.8% [8][12] - The EBITDA for 2025 is estimated at 1,424 million RMB, with a projected EBITDA margin improvement over the years [8][12]

Overview of A-shares 2024 Annual Report and 2025 Q1 - The overall performance of A-shares in 2024 did not improve, while the performance in 2025 Q1 showed significant improvement, although revenue recovery was slow [9][10] - The cumulative net profit growth rate for all A-shares/non-financial in 2024 was -2.3%/-12.9%, a decline from 2024 Q3 [10] - In 2025 Q1, the cumulative net profit growth rate for all A-shares/non-financial was 3.6%/4.2%, a substantial increase of 5.8/17.1 percentage points compared to the 2024 annual report [10][12] Revenue and Performance Growth Overview - The cumulative revenue growth rate for all A-shares/non-financial in 2024 was -0.9%/-1.0%, showing slight improvement from 2024 Q3 [10] - In 2025 Q1, the cumulative revenue growth rate for all A-shares/non-financial was -0.7%/-0.7%, indicating a minor recovery compared to the 2024 annual report [10][12] Profitability Analysis - The return on equity (ROE) for all A non-financial in 2025 Q1 was 6.68%, slightly down from 6.70% in 2024 Q4, indicating a continued bottoming process [14] - The net profit margin showed a low recovery, while asset turnover and debt ratio continued to decline, reflecting a fragile recovery trend [14][20] Industry Performance Overview - Profitability is shifting towards midstream and technology sectors, with a decline in profit share from financial and upstream sectors [28] - The recovery in consumer profitability is mainly driven by the agricultural and forestry sectors, while midstream manufacturing and technology sectors are showing significant recovery trends [28] Contribution to Profitability - The improvement in profitability is attributed to the "two new" policies and base effect, with significant contributions from electronics, home appliances, and machinery sectors [35] - The real estate sector showed a notable reduction in losses, contributing positively to the overall performance in 2025 Q1 [35][38] Sector Focus - The technology manufacturing sector is highlighted for its revenue growth indicators, with a focus on penetration rates [24] - Key sectors with positive revenue growth in 2024 Q4 and 2025 Q1 include computers, electronics, machinery, automobiles, and communications [24][28] Future Outlook - The performance growth rhythm for all A non-financial in 2025 is expected to present a "V" shape, with a potential cumulative profit growth rate of -2.3% under neutral assumptions [22][24] - The government’s commitment to GDP targets and sufficient counter-cyclical policy reserves are expected to support a recovery in profitability [22][24]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [2][4] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 6.54 billion HKD in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.4%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 739 million HKD, down 13.3% year-on-year [4][7] - The growth in revenue from third-party channels was robust at 10.4%, indicating a positive trend in this segment, while the company is encouraged to focus on other B-end and overseas market opportunities for incremental growth [4][7] - The report adjusts the earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025-2027 to 0.83, 0.94, and 1.03 HKD respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 14.7X, 13.0X, and 11.9X [4][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's third-party revenue reached 45.7 billion HKD, accounting for 69.8% of total revenue, with significant contributions from hot pot seasoning and instant food segments [7] - The hot pot seasoning segment generated 23.3 billion HKD, with a growth rate of 6.4%, while the compound seasoning segment saw a revenue increase of 21.7% to 7.2 billion HKD [7] - The company’s gross margin for 2024 was 31.3%, a slight decrease of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to pricing adjustments by related parties [7] Market Expansion - The company is actively expanding its coverage in the B-end market and overseas, particularly in Southeast Asia and the Middle East, with plans to enhance its market share in these regions [7] - The establishment of a supply center in Thailand is expected to boost the company's capacity to serve overseas markets, potentially increasing the revenue share from international operations [7] Future Outlook - The report projects a revenue growth rate of 11.0% for 2025, followed by 10.5% and 9.5% in 2026 and 2027 respectively, indicating a positive growth trajectory [6][8] - The net profit is expected to recover to 860 million HKD in 2025, with a projected growth rate of 16.3% [6][8]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [5][3]. Core Insights - The company, Hehe Information, is a leading player in the C-end productivity software market, driven by AI and overseas expansion [3][8]. - The company has a strong user base and brand influence, with expectations for continued growth in both C-end and B-end business segments [8][16]. - Revenue and profit margins have shown consistent improvement, with a projected revenue growth rate of 24.2% for 2025 [21][5]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Hehe Information specializes in AI text recognition and commercial big data, having developed popular apps like "CamScanner" and "CamCard" [8][16]. - The company has been operational since 2006, focusing on text recognition and image processing technologies [16]. Financial Performance - From 2018 to 2024, the company's revenue increased from 196 million RMB to 1.438 billion RMB, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 39.39% [21][24]. - The net profit turned from a loss of 79 million RMB in 2018 to a profit of 401 million RMB in 2024, with a gross margin improvement from 72.54% to 84.28% [21][24]. Business Segments - The company's main revenue sources are from intelligent text recognition and commercial big data services, with the former contributing 84.53% of total revenue in 2024 [22][30]. - The "CamScanner" app generated 982 million RMB in revenue, accounting for 68.31% of the intelligent recognition segment [22][30]. Market Position and Growth Potential - The global market for intelligent text recognition services is expected to grow from 12.56 billion USD in 2023 to 32.9 billion USD by 2030, with a CAGR of approximately 14.8% [43][46]. - The Chinese market for intelligent text recognition services is projected to grow at a CAGR of 16.5%, outpacing global growth rates [43][46]. Product Development and Innovation - The company is expanding its product offerings, including new educational software aimed at the C-end market, which may become a new growth driver [8][16]. - The company has established a strong foothold in the B-end market, serving over 130 Fortune 500 companies and implementing solutions across nearly 30 industries [8][16].