Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on the company with a "Buy" rating and sets a target price of $7.64, based on an 18x adjusted PE for 2026 [1][7]. Core Insights - The company is a leader in China's second-hand circular economy, integrating the entire 3C second-hand recycling industry chain through four main business lines: Aihuiqiu, Pai Jitang, Paipai, and AHS Device, achieving a closed-loop system of C2B recycling, B2B circulation, and B2C retail [1][19]. - The company is expected to evolve from a fulfillment service provider to a brand owner, enhancing profit margins through retail and compliant refurbishment while expanding into multiple categories for growth [1][21]. Industry Overview - The second-hand electronics market is characterized by low penetration rates and high growth potential, with a projected transaction volume of approximately 702 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 28.7% from 2020 to 2024 [24][27]. - The recycling penetration rate for 3C products in China is only 4.4% as of 2024, indicating significant room for growth compared to developed countries [2][24]. Company Advantages - The company’s competitive edge lies in its vertical integration of the entire industry chain, creating cost and efficiency barriers through resource collaboration [3][20]. - The company has established a strong partnership with JD.com, which significantly reduces customer acquisition costs, with nearly 40% of its recycling sources coming from JD.com [23][19]. Future Growth Prospects - The company plans to expand its store count from approximately 2,000 to over 5,000, which is expected to enhance fulfillment capabilities and drive revenue growth [4][21]. - The company is diversifying its recovery categories, including luxury goods and gold, which could open a second growth curve, with a total market gross profit potential of around 60 billion yuan [4][21]. Financial Projections - The company’s revenue is projected to reach 20.97 billion yuan in 2025 and 26.29 billion yuan in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate of 25.2% from 2025 to 2027 [6][11]. - The adjusted net profit is expected to be 4.06 billion yuan in 2025 and 6.76 billion yuan in 2026, with corresponding adjusted EPS of 1.82 yuan and 3.03 yuan [6][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the civil aviation manufacturing industry, indicating it will become a significant growth area for China's aerospace manufacturing sector [1][5]. Core Insights - The civil aviation manufacturing sector is expected to mirror the success of the U.S. aerospace industry, where commercial aircraft manufacturing is a major source of revenue and profit for companies like Boeing and GE Aviation [2][55]. - The C919 aircraft is set to lead the development of China's civil aviation manufacturing industry, with a production capacity expected to reach 200 units per year by 2029 [3][56]. - The aftermarket for civil aviation in China is projected to be vast, with the country potentially becoming the largest single aviation market globally by 2044 [4][5]. Summary by Sections Civil Aviation Manufacturing Growth - Civil aviation manufacturing in China is anticipated to grow significantly, driven by the C919's commercial operations and the development of a domestic supply chain [1][5]. - The report highlights that the domestic aviation manufacturing industry is beginning to catch up, with a focus on increasing the localization rate of components [3][4]. C919 Aircraft Development - The C919 aircraft, with over 1,000 orders, is expected to enhance production and delivery capabilities, marking a significant milestone in China's aviation history [3][56]. - The aircraft's production model involves a high degree of localization, with over 50% of its components sourced domestically [3][56]. Aftermarket Opportunities - The civil aviation aftermarket in China is projected to expand, with an increase in the number of approved civil aviation products and components [4][5]. - The report notes that the penetration of domestic materials is expected to rise, helping airlines reduce procurement costs and improve supply chain reliability [4][5]. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities within the civil aviation manufacturing supply chain, including companies involved in aircraft body manufacturing, materials, engines, and onboard equipment [5]. - Key companies mentioned include AVIC Xi'an Aircraft Industry, AVIC Harbin Aircraft Industry, and various suppliers of materials and components [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][6]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the price increase of liquid hexafluorophosphate lithium (6F), with a projected price rise due to supply constraints from maintenance activities [1][3]. - The company's 2025 earnings forecast has been revised upwards, with net profit expected to be between 1.1 billion to 1.6 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 179.45% [2][12]. - The company is focusing on increasing the proportion of LIFSI in its products, aiming to enhance growth potential and market share in electrolyte solutions [4]. Summary by Sections Investment Rating - The company is rated as "Buy" with a target price of 80.50 RMB, reflecting an increase from the previous target of 67.75 RMB [5][6]. Price and Supply Dynamics - The company plans to conduct maintenance on its 6F production line, which is expected to reduce supply by approximately 2,800 to 4,200 tons, potentially leading to higher prices in the upcoming peak season [1]. - The price of 6F has risen to 180,000 RMB per ton, significantly up from previous quarters, indicating a strong market demand [3]. Earnings Forecast - The company anticipates a substantial increase in net profit for Q4 2025, with estimates ranging from 679 million to 1.179 billion RMB, marking a significant quarter-on-quarter growth [2][12]. - Adjusted profit forecasts for 2025 to 2027 show net profits of 1.352 billion, 7.127 billion, and 8.966 billion RMB respectively, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [12][13]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is increasing its focus on LIFSI, aiming to raise its proportion in products from 2% to 3%-4%, which is expected to open new growth avenues [4]. - The report highlights the potential for significant profit elasticity due to the combination of rolling pricing orders and long-term contract negotiations [3].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Huaming Equipment with a "Buy" rating, assigning a target price of 29.5 RMB based on a 30.4x PE for 2026 [3][8][15]. Core Views - Huaming Equipment ranks first in the domestic transformer tap changer industry and second globally, with a robust growth outlook driven by overseas expansion, maintenance services, and ultra-high voltage (UHV) business [3][15]. - The global power grid investment is entering an upward cycle, which is expected to boost the company's performance significantly, with a projected CAGR of 18.7% for net profit from 2025 to 2027 [3][15]. - The company is transitioning from a "device manufacturer" to a "full lifecycle service provider," leveraging its high installed base for maintenance services, which presents substantial growth potential [5][18]. Summary by Sections Investment Outlook - The report highlights that global power grid investments are on the rise, with significant constraints on overseas power equipment supply. The company’s export scale is expected to grow, with direct and indirect exports projected at 3.4 billion, 4.9 billion, and 3.1 billion RMB for 2023, 2024, and the first half of 2025, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 61.9%, 42.6%, and 45.3% [4][16]. - The company is actively exploring opportunities in Europe, Southeast Asia, and North America, with a focus on localized layouts and customized solutions [4][16]. Ultra-High Voltage and Maintenance Services - The domestic ultra-high voltage market is anticipated to grow significantly, with the company expected to capture a 60% market share, translating to an additional revenue of 2.2 billion RMB during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [5][17]. - The maintenance business is projected to reach a potential revenue scale of 7 billion RMB, with a significant increase in orders expected in the coming years [18]. Competitive Advantages - The company maintains a high gross margin, consistently above 55% since 2019, attributed to its strong market position and R&D capabilities, which create substantial barriers to entry for competitors [6][19]. - Huaming Equipment's comprehensive manufacturing capabilities, with 80% of components produced in-house, enhance its cost control and supply chain stability, particularly advantageous during periods of overseas market tightness [6][19]. Financial Projections - The report forecasts net profits of 7.30 billion, 8.66 billion, and 10.28 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.81, 0.97, and 1.15 RMB [7][12]. - The company’s overall revenue is expected to grow from 2.32 billion RMB in 2024 to 3.29 billion RMB in 2027, reflecting a steady growth trajectory [12][13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD Health with a target price of HKD 77.40 [7][18]. Core Insights - JD Health is expected to continue strong revenue growth in 4Q25, with a projected year-on-year increase of 22.7% to RMB 20.26 billion, driven by the increasing online penetration of pharmaceuticals and the company's competitive advantages in supply chain management [2][15]. - The company is anticipated to achieve a non-IFRS operating profit of RMB 260 million in 4Q25, reflecting a non-IFRS operating profit margin of 1.3%, an improvement of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring the supply iteration of new medical products, the impact of weight-loss drugs entering the medical insurance list, the penetration of AI medical applications, and the expansion of JD Health's O2O business [1]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - JD Health's total revenue for 4Q25 is expected to grow by 22.7% year-on-year to RMB 20.26 billion, with pharmaceuticals projected to see over 30% growth in GMV [2][15]. - For the full year of 2025, revenue is forecasted to increase by 25% to RMB 72.7 billion, with a non-IFRS operating profit of RMB 4.11 billion, corresponding to a non-IFRS operating profit margin of 5.7%, an improvement of 1.2 percentage points year-on-year [2][15]. Offline Business Development - JD Health is set to open over 200 new offline pharmacy stores in the second half of 2025, with 150 stores expected to open in 4Q25, enhancing user reach and brand exposure [3]. - The company's medical insurance payment coverage has expanded to 8 cities, including Shanghai, which is anticipated to drive user penetration and performance growth [3]. New Product Launches and AI Integration - JD Health continues to strengthen partnerships with upstream medical brands, achieving multiple collaborations for new drug launches, thereby enhancing its channel value [4]. - The report notes the positive reception of JD Health's AI doctor, which has achieved a satisfaction rate of 98%, reinforcing its capabilities in internet medical services [4]. Profitability Adjustments - The profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been raised by 11.6%, 15.6%, and 22.4% respectively, due to improved revenue expectations and the anticipated release of operating leverage [5][15]. - The target valuation for 2026 has been adjusted to a non-IFRS PE of 30.0x, reflecting a premium over comparable companies, driven by JD Health's efficiency in the pharmaceutical market and its advantages in AI medical applications [18].

Group 1: Real Estate Industry - The core viewpoint is that the official launch of commercial real estate REITs marks a significant step towards a new development model in the real estate sector, with policies expected to accelerate the growth of C-REITs [2] - The introduction of 30 REITs-related policies by the CSRC and stock exchanges is seen as a catalyst for expanding asset classes and enhancing efficiency, which could lead to a revaluation of related assets and companies [2] - Companies deeply involved in commercial real estate and management services are expected to benefit significantly from this development [2] Group 2: Financial Services Industry - The recent guidelines from the central bank and financial regulatory authority aim to reduce the pricing cap for small loan companies, which may lead to a rapid industry cleanup [3] - The guidelines require small loan companies to stop issuing loans with comprehensive financing costs exceeding 24% immediately and to gradually lower pricing to within four times the one-year LPR by the end of 2027 [3] - The impact of these guidelines on the broader financial technology sector will depend on whether banks and consumer finance companies follow suit [3] Group 3: Transportation Industry - The outlook for January indicates a seasonal decline in passenger and cargo volumes, but there are positive signs for airline profitability and oil transportation demand [5] - The airline sector is expected to see improved revenue levels due to steady demand growth and favorable oil prices, while oil transportation rates may rise due to geopolitical tensions [5] - Recommendations include focusing on specific stocks in the airline and oil transportation sectors, as well as logistics and express delivery companies [5] Group 4: ETF Market - By the end of 2025, the total scale of ETFs in China surpassed 6 trillion yuan, with a significant increase driven by stock ETFs, which saw a 42% growth [5] - There is a notable divergence in the performance of broad-based ETFs and thematic industry ETFs, with the latter experiencing continued inflows [5] Group 5: Key Companies - Century Huatong is covered for the first time with a "buy" rating and a target price of 24.52 yuan, driven by its leadership in SLG games and strong performance in overseas markets [6] - New and emerging companies like Xinhecheng and Huaming Equipment are also highlighted for their growth potential and strategic initiatives, with target prices set at 38.24 yuan and 29.5 yuan respectively [10][12] - The report emphasizes the importance of product innovation and market expansion for companies like Sanqi Interactive Entertainment and China Jushi, which are expected to benefit from new game launches and incentive plans [8][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the commercial real estate sector, including Longfor Group, China Overseas Development, Link REIT, and others [9][26]. Core Insights - The introduction of commercial real estate REITs (C-REITs) marks a significant shift in China's real estate development model, with policies aimed at enhancing liquidity and asset valuation [1][5]. - The new policies are expected to accelerate the scale of C-REITs, particularly in the commercial real estate sector, which is seen as having the most substantial growth potential [4][25]. - The report emphasizes the importance of expanding the asset base and optimizing regulatory mechanisms to attract more investment and enhance market efficiency [3][4]. Summary by Sections Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for Longfor Group, China Overseas Development, Link REIT, and several other companies, indicating strong growth potential in the commercial real estate sector [9][26]. Policy Background - The transformation of the REITs system is driven by three main factors: revitalizing existing assets, promoting pilot experiences, and enhancing the quality of REITs to meet market demands [2][11]. Policy Core - The core of the new policies focuses on expanding the asset base and increasing efficiency, which includes breaking the self-holding restrictions for original rights holders and enhancing market-driven pricing mechanisms [3][12]. Impact and Outlook - The report identifies three key factors that could drive the rapid scaling of REITs: increased motivation for original rights holders, a broader range of participating funds, and improved efficiency in the review and management processes [4][19]. - Commercial real estate is expected to become the focal point for expansion, with the potential for significant growth in this sector [24][25]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests investing in companies with a strong presence in commercial real estate and management advantages, such as Longfor Group, China Overseas Development, and others [5][26].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Insights - The company aims to become a world-class automotive enterprise, targeting sales of 1 million units in 2026 and 4 million units in the long term [4][5] - The company has established a comprehensive self-research and platform-based manufacturing system, achieving a sales volume of approximately 597,000 units in 2025, marking a significant improvement in its fundamentals [2][3] - The strategic investment from FAW Group, acquiring approximately 5% equity for about HKD 3.74 billion, highlights the recognition of the company's long-term strategy [3] Sales and Financial Projections - The company expects to achieve sales of 600,000, 1,040,000, and 1,420,000 units in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding revenues of RMB 68.3 billion, RMB 123.5 billion, and RMB 168.8 billion [5][11] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be RMB 6.6 million, RMB 51.1 million, and RMB 82.5 million for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5][11] Strategic Developments - The company has signed a powertrain cooperation agreement with FAW, focusing on the joint development of range-extended and plug-in hybrid vehicles, with the first model expected to be mass-produced in 2026 [3] - The D-series models, including D19 and D99, are set to launch in 2026, enhancing the company's high-end product lineup [3][4] Market Expansion - The company plans to leverage Stellantis' distribution channels to export over 60,000 vehicles in 2025, entering 35 countries with more than 800 overseas stores [2][4] - The strategic cooperation with FAW and Stellantis is expected to drive growth and profitability during the upcoming new vehicle cycle [4]

证券研究报告 中国巨石 (600176 CH) 新激励，新周期 | 华泰研究 | | 动态点评 | 投资评级(维持): | 买入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026 年 | 1 月 05 日│中国内地 | 玻璃 | 目标价(人民币): | 20.80 | | 公司 | 1 月 1 日公布 2025 年限制性股票激励计划草案，且 | 12 月电子布提价 | 方晏荷 | 研究员 | | 落实。此次激励对应公司业绩考核目标包括 | | 2026/2027/2028 年扣非归母净 | SAC No. S0570517080007 | fangyanhe@htsc.com | | | | | SFC No. BPW811 | +(86) 755 2266 0892 | | 利润、扣非净资产收益率和经济增加值改善值等多项指标，我们认为此次激 | | | | | | 励传承了公司一以贯之的人才重视政策，与 | | 2021-2023 年超额利润分享方 | 黄颖 SAC No. S0570522030002 | 研究员 huangying018854@htsc.com | | 经 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the transportation industry [2] Core Views - The report highlights a significant year-on-year increase in travel demand during the New Year holiday period, attributed to a low base effect from the previous year [6] - The aviation sector is expected to benefit from limited supply growth, rising ticket prices, and improved profitability due to favorable oil prices and currency exchange rates [9] Summary by Sections Travel Demand Growth - During the 2026 New Year holiday, cross-regional travel reached 595 million trips, averaging 198 million trips per day, with a year-on-year growth of 19.62% [6] - Rail travel saw the highest growth at 52.6%, while civil aviation grew by 10.4% and intercity buses by 20.8% [6] Aviation Sector Insights - Civil aviation passenger volume reached 5.88 million during the holiday, with a daily average of 1.96 million, reflecting a 10.4% increase year-on-year [6] - Average domestic economy class ticket prices rose to 684.6 yuan, showing a recovery trend after a decline in the previous year [6] Road and Rail Travel - Road travel accounted for 540 million trips, with a daily average of 18 million, marking a 15.7% increase year-on-year [7] - Rail travel demand remained strong, with an estimated 48.09 million trips during the holiday, reflecting a 52.7% year-on-year increase [8] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the aviation sector for 2026, anticipating strong performance during the Spring Festival and sustained demand growth in the medium to long term [9] - Key stocks recommended include Huaxia Airlines, Spring Airlines, and China Southern Airlines, all rated as "Buy" with target prices set for 2026 [5][12]