证券研究报告 固收 半年末债市的三个关注点 华泰研究 2025 年 6 月 08 日│中国内地 利率周报 报告核心观点 上周央行通过政策工具释放呵护信号，叠加大行积极增持短端利率债，市场 做多情绪回暖，终结了 5 月底的震荡下跌走势，短端利率下行带动长端利率 走低，曲线陡峭化。展望半年末时点，关税与基本面演绎、资金面及银行等 机构行为值得关注。预计短期中美关税谈判小幅抬升风险偏好，基本面对债 市仍有支撑；资金面冲击幅度有限，仍需提防资金分层与时点冲击；大行持 续买短债或助推曲线走陡，半年末银行兑现 OCI 浮盈券或无需过度担忧。 整体上，债市多空力量相对均衡，或难打破震荡格局，建议适度博弈曲线陡 峭化等。本周关注中美关税谈判、5 月通胀数据、贸易数据、金融数据。 关注点一：从关税谈判进展到基本面高频数据 特朗普就任以来，市场对中美关税预期波动剧烈。去年底与今年四月初，市 场情绪相对悲观，二月则过度乐观，当前市场情绪相对乐观，但整体已较为 钝化。展望未来，尽管特朗普关税政策充满不确定性，但其背后逻辑逐渐清 晰，市场反应将更趋钝化。上周两国领导人通话，关税谈判进入第二阶段， 期待本周关税谈判有积极进展，风险偏好略 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral investment rating for the transportation and construction industries [5]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that Chinese companies are increasingly expanding into Southeast Asia as a strategic move for sustainable growth, leveraging the region's economic potential and lower costs [9][10]. - It highlights the role of third-party service providers in assisting companies with cross-border operations, thereby enhancing their core competencies while optimizing the service providers' business models [9][10]. - The report identifies that companies actively expanding overseas and effectively managing costs and risks are likely to build long-term competitive advantages amid trade headwinds [13]. Summary by Relevant Sections Section: Chinese Enterprises Going Overseas - The report discusses the restructuring of trade orders and the capital empowerment that enables Chinese enterprises to break through in Southeast Asia, which is seen as a key destination for overseas expansion due to its rapid economic growth and lower operational costs [9][10]. Section: Huanxu Electronics - Huanxu Electronics has accelerated its global expansion since 2018, establishing production bases in Vietnam, Mexico, and Poland, with a total of 30 factories across 12 countries [2][11]. - The company focuses on localizing talent and supply chains to maintain long-term competitiveness, with over 95% of its workforce in Vietnam being local [12][13]. Section: Eastern Airlines Logistics - Eastern Airlines Logistics is adjusting its route structure to mitigate risks and enhance its position as a comprehensive logistics service provider, currently operating 15 B777 freighters [14][16]. - The company is focusing on diversifying its market presence beyond North America to reduce risks associated with tariff fluctuations [14][16]. Section: Hongxin Jianda - Hongxin Jianda's overseas business has rapidly expanded, with overseas revenue reaching 3.9 billion yuan in 2024, accounting for 3.4% of total revenue, and further increasing to over 15% in Q1 2025 [17][18]. - The company plans to increase its overseas asset management scale to approximately 10 billion yuan by 2027, focusing on local procurement and employment to achieve win-win cooperation [18].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the oil and gas sector and a "Buy" rating for several chemical companies [6]. Core Views - The overall price spread in the industry improved in May 2025, with the CCPI-oil price spread at approximately 731, reflecting a 30% improvement compared to the past decade [2][15]. - The report anticipates a recovery point for chemical cyclical products in the second half of 2025, driven by demand recovery and significant slowdown in capital expenditure [2][3]. Summary by Sections Demand Side - The domestic PMI for May 2025 was reported at 49.5, indicating a potential recovery in demand alongside easing tariffs [3][18]. - The report highlights that while the real estate sector remains weak, sectors like automotive and home appliances are showing positive growth due to domestic consumption policies [18]. Supply Side - Capital expenditure in the chemical raw materials and products sector showed a year-on-year increase of 1.3% from January to April 2025, but the growth rate is declining [3][37]. - The report suggests that the industry is entering a self-adjustment phase, with some sectors nearing capacity inflection points [3][37]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests that the second half of 2025 may mark the beginning of an upward trend, focusing on resilient demand and improved market conditions [5][42]. - Recommended stocks include China Petroleum, Juhua Co., Dongyue Group, and others, particularly in sectors like refrigerants and isocyanates, which are expected to see early optimization [5][9]. Monthly Price Changes - In May, several products, including urea and TDI, saw price increases due to supply constraints and export demand [4][43]. - The report notes that while some products are experiencing price increases, others like methyl trichlorosilane are facing price declines due to weak demand [4][43]. Key Sub-industry Review - The oil and gas sector experienced fluctuations in prices, with Brent crude oil prices showing a slight recovery after initial declines [49]. - The report indicates that OPEC+ has adjusted production targets, which may impact future oil prices [49][56].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) with a target price of HKD 40.00 for H shares and RMB 45.50 for A shares [9]. Core Views - The company emphasizes its strong resource base, business synergy, and stable downstream consumption, which enhance its ability to withstand cyclical fluctuations. The low volatility and high yield logic continue to highlight its value, restoring investor confidence in long-term allocations [1]. - The report identifies mixed short-term factors affecting the coal industry, including a decrease in coal imports and potential support for domestic demand due to uncertainties in external demand [2]. - Long-term factors indicate that the coal price is supported by rising production costs and stricter regulations, which may elevate the barriers to capacity expansion [3]. - The company is positioned as a leading integrated player in the coal, electricity, and transportation sectors, leveraging its high-quality resources and strategic partnerships to navigate market cycles [4]. - Profit forecasts for the company remain stable, with expected net profits of RMB 501 million, RMB 500 million, and RMB 502 million for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively. The company maintains a high historical dividend payout ratio, reinforcing its commitment to shareholder returns [5]. Summary by Sections Industry Short-term Factors - Positive factors include a decrease in coal imports, which may alleviate supply-demand imbalances, and the resilience of domestic manufacturing supporting energy consumption growth [2]. - Negative factors involve early resumption of coal mining leading to increased inventories and potential downward pressure on coal prices [2]. Industry Long-term Factors - The coal industry is experiencing a significant loss rate, with over 60% of companies reporting losses due to rising costs driven by inflation and operational challenges [3]. - New regulations effective July 1 will raise the barriers for coal mining operations, increasing compliance costs and potentially supporting higher production costs [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to maintain a stable profit trajectory with net profits forecasted at RMB 50,086 million for 2025, reflecting a decline from previous years but supported by a consistent dividend policy [5][7]. - The report utilizes a Dividend Discount Model (DDM) for valuation, maintaining target prices of RMB 45.50 for A shares and HKD 40.00 for H shares, emphasizing the importance of stable dividends in the current market environment [5][14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [8] Core Viewpoints - The company is entering the 2.0 phase of brand development, transitioning from merely meeting consumer preferences to leading consumption trends [1][2] - The company has shown strong performance in major sales events, consistently ranking at the top across various metrics [2] - The company is focusing on product enhancement rather than blindly launching new products, with significant upgrades planned for its brands [2][3] - The company is successfully increasing its direct sales ratio, which is expected to exceed 50% in 2024, driven by consumer choice [3] - Capacity expansion is progressing smoothly, with the second phase of the Thailand factory set to be operational in June [4] - The overall impact of tariffs on the company is considered manageable due to its low export ratio to the U.S. [4] Financial Projections and Valuation - The company’s projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 7.94 billion, 11.21 billion, and 15.04 billion RMB respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.99, 2.80, and 3.76 RMB [5][7] - The target price is set at 130 RMB, based on a 65.5x PE ratio for 2025 [5][9] - The company is expected to benefit from the growth of the domestic pet industry, with a clear and effective brand-building strategy [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of HKD 79.37 [8][9]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a value stock that combines stability and growth potential, with a focus on both stable and growth-oriented business segments [1]. - The stable business segment is expected to see profit contributions gradually increase due to solid capital investments, despite a slight decline in electricity prices at the Yangjiang Nuclear Power Station [2]. - The growth segment is driven by the successful launch of multiple zero-carbon projects in mainland China and India, which are anticipated to inject growth potential into the company's performance [3]. Summary by Sections Stable Business - In Q1, electricity sales in Hong Kong decreased by 2.6% year-on-year to 7.091 billion kWh, influenced by weather conditions and the leap year in 2024. However, the company remains optimistic about profit contributions from regulated businesses due to a guaranteed profit margin of 8% on fixed assets [2]. - The nuclear power business showed stable performance with increased generation at the Daya Bay Nuclear Power Station, while the Yangjiang Nuclear Power Station maintained stable output despite a slight decrease in average electricity prices due to increased market trading [2]. Growth Business - The company's zero-carbon asset portfolio is expanding, with projects such as the 150MW wind farm in Guangxi and the 90MW solar project in Jiangsu successfully launched in Q1. The investment plan for zero-carbon projects aims to double renewable energy capacity in mainland China from approximately 3GW to 6GW by 2029 [3]. - In India, renewable energy and transmission capacity are expected to triple from approximately 2.3GW to 8GW, while Australia's storage projects are projected to grow from 0.1GW to 1.6GW [3]. Dividend and Financial Outlook - The company has consistently maintained its dividend since 1987, with a proposed interim dividend of HKD 0.63 per share for 2025, reflecting a stable dividend policy and a potential for future increases [4]. - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders is set at HKD 121 million for 2025, with an EPS of HKD 4.79. The target price reflects a price-to-book ratio of 1.85x for 2025, which is above the historical average [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 20.40 [8][9]. Core Insights - The company is actively embracing AI transformation, with continuous updates to its Agent use cases covering various enterprise processes such as finance, human resources, supply chain, and manufacturing [1][2]. - There is a significant increase in AI application procurement demand from large enterprises, with the company having served over 58,000 medium and large enterprises and signed contracts with 45 central state-owned enterprises by Q1 2025 [3]. - The internal use of AI technology has led to significant efficiency improvements, with a reduction in employee numbers to 19,594, down by 1,689 from the end of 2024, indicating a successful structural adjustment [4]. Financial Projections - The company expects revenues of RMB 99.58 billion, RMB 110.18 billion, and RMB 123.15 billion for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively, with EPS projected at RMB 0.05, RMB 0.17, and RMB 0.31 for the same period [5][7]. - The report indicates a recovery in contract signing amounts in February and March 2025, reflecting a positive trend in business performance [3]. Product Development - The company launched the YonGPT enterprise service model in 2023, followed by the YonGPT 2.0 version in 2024, and the "Yonyou BIP Enterprise AI" in 2025, which includes a three-layer architecture for comprehensive enterprise solutions [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [8] Core Views - The company is optimistic about long-term aluminum prices and highlights its strong dividend attributes, maintaining a leading position in the aluminum industry [1][2] - A significant asset restructuring is underway, with the company planning to acquire 100% of Hongtuo Industrial for approximately 63.518 billion RMB, which is expected to enhance the company's market influence and asset securitization [2] - The decline in energy prices is anticipated to reduce the company's costs, particularly in the Shandong region, where self-supplied power is prevalent [3] - The company expects to see profit expansion in the electrolytic aluminum segment from the second half of 2025 to 2026, despite short-term demand fluctuations [4] Financial Projections - The projected net profits for the company from 2025 to 2027 are 16.129 billion RMB, 17.751 billion RMB, and 21.285 billion RMB respectively [5] - The report estimates a target price of 15.37 HKD based on a PE ratio of 8.5 for 2025, reflecting an increase in the dividend payout ratio to over 60% [5][9] - Revenue projections for 2025 are set at 138.58 billion RMB, with a slight decline expected compared to 2024 [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 49.20 [5][8]. Core Views - The company is expected to see a gradual recovery in its power battery profitability throughout 2025, with a production capacity utilization rate exceeding 60% in Q1 2025 and anticipated further increases in Q2 [2]. - The energy storage business is projected to continue growing in volume while maintaining stable profitability, with the company holding the second-largest global market share in energy storage batteries [3]. - The consumer battery segment remains a cash cow for the company, with a revenue increase of 23.4% year-on-year in 2024, and a forecasted growth rate of 20% for 2025 [4]. Summary by Sections Power Battery Business - In 2024, the company shipped 30.29 GWh of power batteries, although it remained in a loss position. The company expects significant growth in power battery shipments in 2025 due to new customer acquisitions in passenger vehicles and increased demand in commercial vehicles [2]. - The company has secured a contract with BMW for cylindrical batteries and is expanding production capacity in Hungary and the U.S. [2]. Energy Storage Business - The company shipped 50.45 GWh of energy storage batteries in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 91.9%. The estimated net profit per watt-hour is approximately RMB 0.03 [3]. - A procurement agreement for 50 GWh of battery cells was signed with a partner for the years 2025-2027, providing revenue support for the energy storage segment [3]. Consumer Battery Business - The consumer battery segment generated revenue of RMB 10.32 billion in 2024, with a gross margin of 27.58%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.85 percentage points [4]. - The company has expanded its market share in various segments, including small cylindrical batteries, and has begun production at its new facility in Malaysia [4]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts net profits of RMB 5.035 billion, RMB 6.727 billion, and RMB 7.939 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [5]. - The projected revenue for 2025 is RMB 72.494 billion, representing a 49.12% increase from 2024 [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 103.67 [6][7]. Core Insights - The company is optimistic about the development opportunities brought by AIGC and Chiplet, which are expected to enhance its IP and custom chip service business. The successful progress of the private placement project will further strengthen its layout in AIGC and smart mobility Chiplet solutions, potentially opening new growth spaces for future performance [1]. - The company is making continuous investments in the AI sector, aiming to seize opportunities in the high-performance AI chip market. The demand for semiconductor IP and custom chip services is expected to grow due to advancements in AI technology. The company has established a strong market position, with its NPU IP being utilized by 72 clients across 128 AI chip models [2]. - The company is accelerating its Chiplet layout, transitioning its IP model towards Chiplet technology. This shift is driven by the industry's move from SoC to SiP, influenced by the slowdown of Moore's Law. The company is developing Chiplet solutions for AIGC and smart mobility, addressing the high-performance computing needs in sectors like autonomous driving and data centers [3]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The report maintains the forecast for the company's net profit attributable to the parent company at RMB -1.05 million for 2025, RMB 0.13 million for 2026, and RMB 0.56 million for 2027. The valuation for the custom chip/IP licensing business is set at 12.0x and 30.0x for 2025, with a target price of RMB 103.67, reflecting a premium due to the company's competitive advantages in the HPC/AI sector [4].