Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: Absolute Return ETF Simulation Portfolio **Model Construction Idea**: The model determines the allocation weights of major asset classes based on "momentum + risk budgeting" and enhances returns at the stock industry level by incorporating an industry rotation model and timing views on dividend assets[3][26] **Model Construction Process**: 1. **Risk Budgeting**: Assign higher risk budgets to assets with stronger recent trends 2. **Industry Rotation**: Use a monthly frequency industry rotation model to allocate weights within equity assets 3. **Dividend Timing**: Incorporate timing views on dividend assets 4. **Portfolio Adjustment**: Adjust weights periodically, such as removing steel, basic chemicals, non-bank finance, and computers while adding pharmaceuticals, consumer services, and dividend assets in the latest rebalancing[26][29] **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively balances risk and return, leveraging momentum and industry rotation to enhance performance[26] Model Backtesting Results - **Absolute Return ETF Simulation Portfolio**: - Annualized Return: 6.45% - Annualized Volatility: 3.85% - Maximum Drawdown: 4.65% - Sharpe Ratio: 1.68 - Calmar Ratio: 1.39 - Year-to-Date Return: 3.94% - Weekly Return: 0.30%[28] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods - **Factor Name**: Credit Bond ETF as Collateral for Repurchase **Factor Construction Idea**: The factor leverages the inclusion of credit bond ETFs in the general collateral pool for repurchase agreements to enhance liquidity and risk diversification in the credit bond market[7][9] **Factor Construction Process**: 1. **Selection Criteria**: ETFs tracking benchmark market-making credit bonds with large scale and high credit quality are selected 2. **Approval Process**: ETFs meeting the criteria apply to China Securities Depository and Clearing Corporation for inclusion as general collateral for repurchase agreements 3. **Implementation**: The first batch of 9 credit bond ETFs was approved and implemented on June 6, 2025[7][8] **Factor Evaluation**: This factor improves market liquidity, optimizes market structure, and supports the development of the real economy[9] Factor Backtesting Results - **Credit Bond ETF as Collateral for Repurchase**: - Example ETFs: - South China Benchmark Market-Making Corporate Bond ETF (Code: 511070.SH): Scale 124.81 billion, Monthly Average Turnover 48.89 billion - Huaxia Benchmark Market-Making Corporate Bond ETF (Code: 511200.SH): Scale 83.09 billion, Monthly Average Turnover 45.89 billion - Ping An ChinaBond High-Grade Corporate Bond Spread Factor ETF (Code: 511030.SH): Scale 170.70 billion, Monthly Average Turnover 17.76 billion[8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Since 2024, the supply pattern of the credit bond market has been reshaped, with industrial bonds and secondary and perpetual (Er Yong) bonds replacing urban investment bonds as the main forces, showing significant structural characteristics. In 2025, affected by multiple factors such as market fluctuations and stricter regulations, the supply of credit bonds has slightly decreased year-on-year. The supply of industrial bonds remains high, but the supply of ultra-long-term bonds has declined. The supply of Er Yong bonds has increased to some extent, with state-owned large commercial banks as the main issuers. The supply of urban investment bonds is still restricted, and the real estate financing remains sluggish. The highlight of this year's supply is the science and technology innovation bonds, which have been extended to financial institutions and the issuance has accelerated. [1][11][12] - Looking forward to the second half of the year, the overall supply may be flat, and the net supply may still be dominated by central and local state-owned enterprise industrial bonds and national and joint-stock Er Yong bonds. Attention should be paid to the expansion of science and technology innovation bonds. In the long term, the core of credit supply growth lies in the recovery of real financing demand. [31] Summary by Directory Credit Hotspots: Credit Bond Supply Characteristics - From 2020 to 2023, urban investment bonds were the main contributor to the credit bond market. After the release of the "Document 35" in 2023, under the strict supervision of urban investment bonds, the net financing amount decreased significantly. In 2024, due to the continuous evolution of the asset shortage, the supply of industrial bonds increased, especially the issuance of long-term varieties over 10 years. [11] - As of May 31, 2025, the net financing amount of credit bonds was 10,824 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.4%. Industrial bonds are still the main force in credit bond supply, and the issuance entities continue to concentrate on high-quality ones. The real estate bond market is still in the process of repair and adjustment, and the net financing amount remains at a relatively low level. The supply of urban investment bonds is limited under continuous strict supervision and debt resolution. The supply of Er Yong bonds has increased, with state-owned large commercial banks as the main issuers. [12] - In 2025, the net financing amount of industrial bonds is lower than the same period last year, with a year-on-year decrease of 9.12%. The supply of industrial bonds is mainly within 3 years, and the net supply of industrial bonds over 10 years has decreased significantly. The supply of Er Yong bonds has decreased year-on-year, and joint-stock banks have become the main supply force. [14][19] - In May 2025, the issuance of science and technology innovation bonds accelerated, with a monthly issuance of over 350 billion yuan, a record high. Structurally, financial science and technology innovation bonds accounted for 62%, mainly commercial bank bonds, and non-financial enterprise science and technology innovation bonds accounted for 38%, mainly central and local state-owned enterprises. [31] Market Review: The Central Bank Announced Trillion-Level Reverse Repurchase Operations, and Er Yong Bonds Performed Relatively Stronger - From May 30 to June 6, 2025, the central bank announced a 1-trillion-yuan outright reverse repurchase operation at the beginning of the month, and the money market was loose. Interest rate bonds strengthened, while corporate credit bonds showed mixed performance. The short-term yields of corporate credit bonds increased slightly, the medium and long-term yields of medium and low-grade bonds performed relatively well, and most of the spreads were passively widened. The yields of Er Yong bonds decreased by about 3BP, and the short-term spreads decreased slightly. [2][36] - Last week, the buying volume continued to increase, with wealth management products net buying 10.4 billion yuan and funds net buying 15.5 billion yuan. The median spreads of public bonds in various industries increased by about 1BP, and the median spreads of urban investment bonds in various provinces showed mixed performance, with the spreads in Guizhou decreasing significantly. [2][36] Primary Issuance: Overall Issuance Declined Due to Holiday Factors, and Most Issuance Interest Rates Increased - From June 3 to June 6, 2025, the total issuance of corporate credit bonds was 196.5 billion yuan, a month-on-month decrease of 31%, and the total issuance of financial credit bonds was 19 billion yuan, a significant month-on-month decrease of 90%. The total net financing was 49 billion yuan, including a net repayment of 12 billion yuan for urban investment bonds and a net financing of 62.9 billion yuan for industrial bonds. The total net financing of financial credit bonds was 10.3 billion yuan. [3][57] - Affected by holiday factors, the issuance of both corporate and financial credit bonds decreased. In terms of issuance interest rates, the issuance interest rates of medium and short-term notes, except for AAA, showed an upward trend, and the average issuance interest rates of corporate bonds, except for AA+, also showed an upward trend. [3][57] Secondary Trading: Medium and Short-Term Maturities Were Actively Traded, and the Trading of Long-Term Maturities Decreased Slightly - The actively traded entities are mainly medium and high-grade, medium and short-term, and central and local state-owned enterprises. In terms of types, the actively traded entities of urban investment bonds are mainly divided into two categories: one is the mainstream high-grade platforms in economically strong provinces such as Jiangsu and Guangdong; the other is the core main platforms in relatively high-spread areas of large economic provinces (such as Shandong, Chongqing, and Sichuan). The actively traded entities of real estate bonds are still mainly AAA, and the trading maturities are mostly within 1 - 3 years. The actively traded entities of private enterprise bonds are also mainly AAA, and the trading maturities are mostly medium and short-term. [4][67] - Among the actively traded urban investment bonds, the trading volume of bonds with a maturity of over 5 years accounted for 3%, a slight decrease compared with the previous week (4%). [4][67]

Core Views - The report highlights that 2023 is an "atypical" macro year, with significant impacts from Trump's policies on global trade, finance, and geopolitics, leading to a restructuring of the global order [3] - As the market shifts away from US assets, Chinese assets are expected to undergo a revaluation, suggesting a strategic focus on "high odds + left-side emphasis + trading" to navigate uncertainties [3][6] - The report suggests that the weakening dollar may favor non-US assets, with European assets showing higher probabilities of performance, while emerging markets like Hong Kong may offer better odds [3][6] Market Environment - The report identifies three main themes driving asset price performance: global cycle misalignment, AI technology revolution, and global capital reallocation [4] - It notes that the restructuring of global order is altering asset pricing rules, leading to increased volatility and reduced trends across various asset classes [6][13] - The report emphasizes the need for diversified asset allocation strategies in response to changing correlations and the impact of fiscal policies [16] Investment Themes - The report outlines several investment themes for the second half of 2025, including the reconstruction of economic, financial, and geopolitical orders, with a focus on nearshoring and de-dollarization trends [5][17] - It highlights the potential for structural opportunities in regions and industries, particularly in defense, self-sufficiency, and scarce resources due to increased geopolitical uncertainties [5][17] - The report also discusses the implications of a potential stagflation scenario in the US and deflation risks in non-US markets, suggesting a cautious approach to asset allocation [5][24] Asset Pricing - The report indicates that the pricing anchor effect of US Treasuries is weakening due to policy uncertainties and debt issues, leading to a potential revaluation of non-US assets [6][49] - It suggests that the global capital market may see increased diversification as the correlation between US and non-US assets declines [6][49] - The report emphasizes the importance of maintaining flexibility in asset operations and focusing on high odds and low correlation strategies [6][40] Debt Dynamics - The report discusses the implications of the US debt situation, highlighting the challenges posed by high deficits and the potential for a long-term weakening of the dollar [49][53] - It notes that the US government's reliance on short-term debt may create new fiscal stability concerns, particularly as refinancing costs rise [57][58] - The report suggests that the government's approach to managing debt will be a critical factor influencing asset performance in the coming years [59]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of $24.96 [7]. Core Views - The company achieved a laser radar shipment of 196,000 units in Q1 2025, with 146,000 units for ADAS and 50,000 units for robotics. The actual revenue for Q1 2025 was 530 million RMB, showing a year-on-year increase of 46.3% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 27.1%, aligning with the previous guidance of 520-540 million RMB. The net profit was -18 million RMB. The company expects to deliver 300,000 laser radars in Q2 2025, with revenue projected between 680-720 million RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of 48-57%, and anticipates a positive GAAP net profit [1][2]. Summary by Sections ADAS - In Q1 2025, the total shipment of ADAS laser radars reached 146,000 units, a significant increase from 52,000 units in the same period last year. The company has secured over 120 models from 23 OEMs, with new collaborations including popular models from Chery, Great Wall, and Geely. Additionally, the company has obtained a POC project from a top-tier Japanese manufacturer, bringing the total to five global POC projects [2]. Robotics - The total shipment of robotic laser radars in Q1 2025 was 50,000 units. The newly launched JT series robotic laser radar received an order for 300,000 units from MOVA for lawnmowers. The report indicates that the market potential for robotic applications, including Robotaxi and unmanned logistics vehicles, is expected to grow due to product iterations and price reductions [3]. Valuation - The company maintains its guidance for 2025 with laser radar deliveries between 1.2 to 1.5 million units and revenue projected at 3 to 3.5 billion RMB. The report slightly lowers the average price of ADAS laser radars and adjusts revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 down by 4%, 5%, and 6% respectively, to 3.27 billion, 4.73 billion, and 6.39 billion RMB. The net profit forecasts are also adjusted downwards for the same years. The target price is based on a comparable company valuation average of 7.2X PS for 2025 [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the transportation sector [8] Core Views - The report is optimistic about the aviation sector, anticipating a recovery in industry prosperity driven by the summer travel peak and favorable oil and exchange rates [2][28] - It recommends high-dividend Hong Kong-listed road stocks due to stable performance and low Hibor rates supporting dividend valuations [2] - The report notes increased volatility in the shipping sector, particularly in container shipping, while highlighting the need to focus on companies with stable earnings and high dividend yields [2] Aviation Sector - The report highlights strong demand during the May Day holiday, with daily passenger volume averaging 2.23 million, a year-on-year increase of 11.8% [20] - Domestic flight ticket prices have improved, with an average price of 730 RMB, up 0.8% year-on-year [15] - The supply of aircraft is expected to grow slowly, with a projected increase of only 2.8% in the passenger fleet by the end of 2024 [21] - Recommended stocks include China National Aviation, China Eastern Airlines, and Huaxia Airlines, which are expected to benefit from supply-demand improvements [28] Airport Sector - Airports are experiencing high growth in passenger traffic, particularly in southern China, with Baiyun Airport and Shenzhen Airport seeing year-on-year increases of 26.3% and 23.5% respectively [29] - The report emphasizes the need for airports to enhance their non-aeronautical revenue generation capabilities [37] - It suggests focusing on airports with lower capital expenditure, such as Capital Airport, for better investment value [37] Shipping Sector - Container shipping rates have increased significantly, with the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index rising by 18.4% month-on-month in May [4] - The report anticipates further increases in shipping volumes and rates in June due to the easing of tariffs and seasonal demand [39] - It notes that while the crude oil tanker market is improving due to OPEC+ production increases, the dry bulk and product tanker markets remain weak [38] Road and Rail Sector - The report indicates that the road sector is benefiting from lower Hibor rates, which support dividend yields, and suggests focusing on high-dividend stocks like Wuhu Highway and Zhejiang Hu-Hangzhou-Ningbo [5] - The railway freight sector is experiencing weak demand, particularly for coal transport, with expectations of a recovery only in late June [5] Logistics and Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is facing competitive pressures, with a year-on-year increase in parcel volume of 19.1% in April, but prices are declining [68] - The report suggests monitoring the upcoming peak season for potential changes in volume and pricing dynamics [68] - It highlights the need for cross-border logistics to adapt to evolving tariff conditions [68]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 11.37 RMB [8][9]. Core Insights - The company has signed a Master Services Agreement with Marriott International, positioning itself as the preferred provider of PMS cloud services for Marriott's hotels in China, marking a significant step in its global expansion [1][2]. - The agreement is expected to enhance the company's revenue through new orders and accelerate its international growth strategy [1][2]. - The company's annual recurring revenue (ARR) for its SaaS business is projected to reach 523 million RMB in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 25.1% [3]. - The Daylight PMS system is anticipated to generate approximately 26 million RMB in annual revenue from the Marriott agreement, which is about 50% of the current annual ARR [3]. Summary by Sections Agreement with Marriott - The company has become the certified cloud PMS service provider for Marriott in China, with a high likelihood of exclusivity during the contract period [2]. - The agreement is part of a global framework, with potential for expansion to other regions under Marriott's umbrella [2]. SaaS Business Growth - The SaaS business has over 80,000 hotel clients with a renewal rate exceeding 90% [3]. - The Daylight PMS model charges based on the total number of hotel rooms, which could significantly boost revenue from the new agreement [3]. Technology and Market Position - The Daylight PMS system is designed for interoperability among various applications and systems, enhancing operational efficiency [4]. - The company has successfully onboarded major hotel groups, establishing a replicable model for further expansion [4]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted upwards, with expected revenues of 3.45 billion, 3.94 billion, and 4.50 billion RMB respectively [5]. - Earnings per share (EPS) estimates for the same period have also been revised, projecting 0.04, 0.07, and 0.09 RMB [5]. - The company is valued at a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 9.0x for 2025, aligning with comparable companies in the sector [5].

证券研究报告 孩子王 (301078 CH) 丝域实业 100%股权的转让价格为 16.5 亿元，分为 6.6、9.9 亿元两笔支付， 其中，孩子王拟将原用于"门店升级改造项目"的 4.29 亿元可转债募集资 金用于此次收购，并由江苏星丝域向金融机构贷款以支付第二笔款项。丝域 实业原创始人陈英燕、王德友积极参与此次并购，我们认为有助于强化产业 协同和资源整合，也展示了其对于丝域实业未来发展的信心。收购后，孩子 王及丝域实业将在会员运营、场景布局、渠道共享、产业协同等方面发挥协 同效应，强化公司在本地生活和新家庭服务领域的领先优势，推动公司向中 国新家庭全渠道服务商加速迈进。 盈利预测与估值 此次交易已经过公司董事会审议通过，考虑到还需通过公司股东会审议，故 我们暂时维持盈利预测不变，预计 2025-2027 年归母净利润 3.37/4.75/6.88 亿元。参考可比公司 2026 年 iFind 一致预期 PE 均值 36 倍，考虑到公司围 绕新家庭零售场景不断强化产业链竞争优势，且积极发展 AI 业务、提升数 智化能力，维持目标价 19 元，对应公司 2026 年 50 倍目标 PE。 | 华泰研究 | | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for both the banking and securities sectors [11]. Core Insights - The implementation of the Hong Kong "Stablecoin Regulation" on August 1, 2025, is expected to boost the financial sector, particularly benefiting banks and securities firms involved in the stablecoin ecosystem [2][14]. - The report highlights a positive outlook for banks, securities, and insurance sectors, with banks being prioritized for investment opportunities [2][14]. - The anticipated reduction in life insurance preset rates in Q3 2025 is expected to resolve the cost-revenue mismatch in insurance products, enhancing sales momentum [2][41]. Summary by Sections Banking Sector - The Hong Kong "Stablecoin Regulation" is set to take effect on August 1, 2025, which will regulate stablecoin activities and establish a licensing system [3][17]. - Standard Chartered Bank is participating in a sandbox test for stablecoin issuers, while ZA Bank is the first digital bank in Hong Kong to provide reserve banking services for stablecoin issuers [3][18]. - The banking index rose by 1.68%, outperforming the CSI 300 index, with notable gains from banks like Nanjing Bank (+11.61%) and CITIC Bank (+5.65%) [15][16]. - Recommended quality stocks include Nanjing Bank, Hangzhou Bank, Chengdu Bank, Shanghai Bank, and招商银行 (China Merchants Bank) [4][46]. Securities Sector - The report notes a surge in interest in stablecoin concepts, which has positively impacted the non-bank financial sector, particularly securities firms [2][38]. - Several securities firms have announced a reduction in margin interest rates to 0.05%, following the decrease in deposit rates by major banks [39][40]. - The approval of equity changes for multiple securities firms by the CSRC is expected to enhance market sentiment and provide structural opportunities [3][38]. Insurance Sector - The report anticipates a likely reduction in life insurance preset rates in Q3 2025, which is expected to improve the cost-revenue dynamics of insurance products [41][44]. - The insurance sector has shown resilience, with stocks like New China Life Insurance rising by 12% [41]. - Recommended insurance stocks include China Pacific Insurance, Ping An Insurance, and AIA Group [42][46].

Group 1: Semiconductor Manufacturing Trends - Manufacturing utilization rates continue to improve year-on-year, with downstream manufacturers focusing on Chiplet and advanced packaging technologies[1] - The storage market is showing signs of a price turning point, with an upward trend expected to continue until Q3 2025, driven by AI-related demand[1] - Design companies are experiencing differentiated downstream demand, with power and analog companies reporting a recovery in industrial and automotive sectors[1] Group 2: Equipment and Domestic Production - Global WFE is projected to reach $100 billion in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 4%-5%[3] - Domestic equipment manufacturers are seeing significant growth in new orders, benefiting from downstream expansion and increased localization rates[3] - The verification speed of core new equipment by domestic companies is accelerating, indicating a positive trend for advanced node domestic equipment breakthroughs[3] Group 3: Storage Market Dynamics - The storage market is expected to see price increases, with predictions of 18-23% and 13-18% growth for Server and PC DDR4 modules respectively in Q2 2025[4] - The enterprise storage market is projected to grow from $23.4 billion in 2024 to $49 billion by 2028, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16%[25] - Domestic manufacturers are positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for enterprise-level storage driven by AI infrastructure investments[25] Group 4: Design Sector Insights - The power semiconductor sector in China is entering a mild upward cycle, with a 14.5% year-on-year increase in domestic passenger car production from January to April 2025[38] - The demand for SoC and MCU products is significantly driven by national subsidies and export opportunities, with performance expected to vary across companies in Q2 2025[26] - The analog chip sector is recovering, with industrial and communication sectors seeing a return to inventory restocking[29]

Core Views - The market is expected to remain in a "top and bottom" scenario, with attention on the upcoming Lujiazui Forum and FOMC meeting for further guidance [2][3] - The recent trading volume of micro-cap stocks is approaching levels seen in November 2023, indicating a crowded market, but the odds of participating in small-cap trends are currently low [2][5] - With the current trading volume not significantly increasing, the speed of sector rotation may remain rapid, with themes like innovative drugs and new consumption already fully played out [2][4] Market Dynamics - The short-term market lacks clear upward momentum, with increased divergence near key levels, but strong support exists at the market bottom [3] - Structural pressures on the macro economy persist, with manufacturing and domestic demand needing improvement, with potential for trend improvement in the second half of the year [3] - The financing balance remains stable at around 1.8 trillion, indicating a baseline scenario of stock game [3] Sector Rotation Opportunities - Recent adjustments in innovative drugs and new consumption sectors suggest a need for investors to reassess their positions [4] - The current internal rotation within innovative drugs and new consumption is relatively sufficient, with a decline in cost-effectiveness [4] - The TMT sector's trading volume has dropped to a low since 2023, presenting potential excess return opportunities in low-positioned technology sectors with industrial catalysts [4][6] Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes the importance of "odds thinking" in investment strategy, suggesting a focus on relatively low-crowded technology sectors such as AI computing chips, storage chips, optical fibers, and smart driving [6] - Mid-term focus should be on core assets represented by A50, consumption, and finance, especially considering the potential for RMB appreciation due to "de-dollarization" [6]