投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 12 月 23 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 低位震荡 | 基本面弱稳运行，钢价低位震荡 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 螺纹钢供需格局变化不大，螺纹产量小幅回升，低供应格局未变，给予钢价支撑，但短流程钢 厂利润尚可，供应存回升预期，关注后续变化。与此同时，螺纹钢需求低位弱稳运行，高频需求指 标虽环比增加，但仍是近年来同期低位，且下游行业并未好转，需求延续季节性弱势，继而承压钢 价。目前来看 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2) Report's Core View - The crude oil futures contract 2602 is expected to run strongly with short - term and medium - term oscillations and a bullish intraday trend, mainly driven by increased geopolitical risks [1][5]. 3) Summary Based on Related Catalogs Price and Trend - The short - term view of crude oil 2602 is oscillation, the medium - term view is also oscillation, and the intraday view is bullish, with a reference view of running strongly [1]. - It is estimated that domestic crude oil futures may maintain a bullish pattern on Tuesday [5]. Driving Logic - The recent sharp escalation of the US - Venezuela situation is the most direct and powerful driving force for the oil price rebound. The US has increased pressure on Venezuela, including a "full and complete blockade" of sanctioned oil tankers and plans to seize more tankers. About 600 million barrels of Venezuelan crude oil have been seized in total. Venezuela is an important oil exporter with an export volume of about 600,000 barrels per day in November. The decrease in the number of tankers going to Venezuela due to US pressure has led to concerns about a substantial gap in global crude oil supply, thus increasing the risk premium of oil prices. Geopolitical factors dominated the short - term oil market, leading to a bullish and oscillating trend in domestic crude oil futures prices on Monday night [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report [1][3] 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The report predicts that the iron ore 2605 contract will experience wide - range fluctuations. The supply - demand pattern of iron ore is weakening, and the ore price is under pressure. Although short - term bullish factors support the high - level operation of the ore price, the overall fundamentals are still weak, and the upward driving force is not strong. It is expected that the ore price will maintain a high - level oscillating operation, and caution should be exercised when the trading logic switches to the real - world situation [1][3] 3. Summary of Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2605 contract, the short - term and medium - term trends are both oscillating, the intraday trend is weakly oscillating, and the overall view is wide - range oscillation. The core logic is that the supply - demand pattern is weakening, and the ore price is under pressure [1] 3.2 Market Driving Logic - Demand side: Steel mills' production is weakening, their profitability has not improved, and the demand for ore is in a weak state, which continues to put pressure on the ore price. However, the low inventory in steel mills makes the pre - festival restocking expectation relatively strong [3] - Supply side: Both the arrival at domestic ports and the shipments from miners have decreased month - on - month but are still at a high level within the year. Overseas ore supply is active. Even though domestic ore supply is shrinking, the overall ore supply remains high [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run in a relatively strong manner. The short - term and medium - term trends are mainly in a state of oscillation, while the intraday trend is relatively strong [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price Trends**: Short - term: oscillation; Medium - term: oscillation; Intraday: relatively strong; Overall view: relatively strong operation [1][5] - **Core Logic**: The supply pressure of domestic full - latex has significantly decreased as domestic natural rubber producing areas in Yunnan and Hainan enter the off - season. The domestic automobile production and sales data are optimistic, and the heavy - truck sales data in November are better than expected. The industrial logic is strengthening and driving the rubber market. The conflict between Thailand and Cambodia has intensified, increasing the supply - side disturbances. The domestic Shanghai rubber futures maintained an oscillating and relatively strong trend on the night session of this Monday and are expected to continue this trend on Tuesday [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price Trends**: Short - term: oscillation; Medium - term: oscillation; Intraday: relatively strong; Overall view: relatively strong operation [1][7] - **Core Logic**: The domestic automobile production and sales data are optimistic, and the heavy - truck sales data in November are better than expected, strengthening the industrial logic. The cost - support effect of synthetic rubber is prominent due to the stable rebound of crude oil futures prices. The domestic synthetic rubber futures showed an oscillating and relatively strong trend on the night session of this Monday and are expected to maintain this trend on Tuesday [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is expected to be strong in the short - term and show a short - term upward trend due to the impact of the yen's interest rate hike and the recovery of market liquidity [1][3] - Copper is expected to have a long - term upward trend, driven by macro - level factors such as the warming macro - environment after the yen's interest rate hike, along with mine - end production cuts [1][4] 3. Summary by Related Categories 3.1 Gold - **Short - term view**: Strong [1] - **Medium - term view**: Oscillating [1] - **Intraday view**: Oscillating and tending to be strong [1] - **Reference view**: Bullish in the short - term [1][3] - **Core logic**: After the yen's interest rate hike, short - term market liquidity has recovered. Since the China - US summit in Busan at the end of October, market risk appetite has continuously increased, and gold prices have been in a high - level oscillation. Recently, gold prices have broken through upwards [1][3] - **Price performance**: New York gold has reached above $4400 and is approaching $4500, and Shanghai gold has exceeded the 1000 - yuan mark and broken through the high at the end of October [3] 3.2 Copper - **Short - term view**: Strong [1] - **Medium - term view**: Strong [1] - **Intraday view**: Strong [1] - **Reference view**: Bullish in the long - term [1][4] - **Core logic**: At the macro level, the macro - environment has improved after the yen's interest rate hike, leading to a general rise in non - ferrous metals. At the industrial level, high copper prices have suppressed consumption, with the basis and monthly spreads continuously weakening, and the futures price pattern showing near - term weakness and long - term strength. Short - term macro factors have pushed up copper prices, with high capital attention [4] - **Price performance**: Shanghai copper has shown a strong oscillation, with the position volume continuously increasing. At night, it slightly declined from the high, and the position volume slightly decreased. LME copper faces strong resistance at the $12,000 mark [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term view for股指期货 is that the IH2603 contract will have an interval - shock pattern, with a short - term outlook of shock, a medium - term outlook of shock, and an intraday outlook of being on the stronger side. The core logic is the unchanged policy - favorable expectations and the trend of capital inflow [1]. - For IF, IH, IC, and IM, the intraday view is on the stronger side, the medium - term view is shock, and the reference view is interval shock. Although the stock market trading volume is still at a low level in the short term and investors' risk preferences are still divided, in the long run, policy - favorable expectations and the capital inflow trend are positive, so the stock index will maintain an interval - shock pattern in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 - For the IH2603 contract, the short - term is shock, the medium - term is shock, the intraday is on the stronger side, and the view is interval shock. The core logic is the unchanged policy - favorable expectations and capital inflow trend [1]. 3.2主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 - The intraday view for IF, IH, IC, and IM is on the stronger side, the medium - term view is shock, and the reference view is interval shock. Yesterday, all stock indexes fluctuated and rose. The total market trading volume of the stock market was 186.5 billion yuan, an increase of 11.63 billion yuan from the previous day. Policy - favorable expectations for 2026 are fermenting, which drives up the market's risk preference and the willingness of medium - and long - term capital allocation, providing strong support for the stock index. However, the short - term trading volume is still at a low level, indicating that investors' risk preferences are divided, and most are in a wait - and - see state. In the long run, the stock index has strong support [5].

1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 煤炭价格反弹，甲醇震荡偏强 | 备注： 期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-12-23 品种晨会纪要 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 甲醇（MA） 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：受困于国内甲醇供应压力不断增大，同时面对国内煤炭期货价格大幅回调的拖累，甲醇 期货反弹受阻，转而重新陷入回调走势。目前港口库存和内陆地区库存小幅回落，但依然处于高位。 同时下游需求改善不足，烯烃盘面利 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the TL2603 variety, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "weakening", and the overall view is "oscillating consolidation" because the probability of a short - term interest rate cut is low, but there are still long - term easing expectations [1]. - For the main varieties (TL, T, TF, TS), the intraday view is "weakening", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillating consolidation". The current Treasury bond futures are under pressure and have support, with weak driving forces, so they will maintain an oscillating consolidation. In the short term, the futures will mainly be in an oscillating consolidation state [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector | Variety | Short - term | Medium - term | Intraday | Viewpoint Reference | Core Logic | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2603 | Oscillation | Oscillation | Weakening | Oscillating consolidation | Low probability of short - term interest rate cut; long - term easing expectations [1] | Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - **Varieties**: TL, T, TF, TS [5] - **Viewpoints**: Intraday view is "weakening", medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillating consolidation" [5] - **Core Logic**: Treasury bond futures oscillated and pulled back yesterday. There is pressure above and support below, and the driving force is weak. On the one hand, the problem of insufficient effective domestic demand still exists, the monetary policy environment is expected to be loose next year, and interest rate and reserve requirement ratio cuts are still expected. Also, the market's implied expectation of an interest rate cut is weak, so there is strong support for Treasury bond futures. On the other hand, short - term macroeconomic data is resilient, the urgency of a full - scale interest rate cut in the short term is not strong, and there are few uncertainties in the internal and external environment recently, so there is a lack of upward driving force for Treasury bond futures [5]

期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 观点参考 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 12 月 23 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡思路 | 多空僵持，焦煤低位震荡 | | | | 偏强 | | 偏强 | | | | 焦炭 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡思路 | 三轮降价落地，焦炭低位运行 | | | | 偏强 | | 偏强 | | | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：震荡 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating 2. Core Views of the Report - **Rubber**: On Monday of this week, the 2605 contract of domestic Shanghai rubber futures showed a trend of increasing volume and open interest, fluctuating weakly, and closing slightly lower. The intraday price center slightly moved down to around 15,205 yuan/ton, and the price closed 0.13% lower. The premium of the 1 - 5 month spread widened to 20 yuan/ton. Currently, the domestic rubber market is dominated by supply - demand fundamentals, and rubber prices fluctuate within a range [6]. - **Methanol**: On Monday of this week, the 2605 contract of domestic methanol futures showed a trend of increasing volume and decreasing open interest, fluctuating weakly, and closing slightly lower. The price reached a high of 2,175 yuan/ton and a low of 2,131 yuan/ton, and finally closed 0.23% lower at 2,155 yuan/ton. The discount of the 1 - 5 month spread narrowed to 39 yuan/ton. Driven by the slight rebound of domestic coal futures prices, the methanol futures started to fluctuate and stabilize [7]. - **Crude Oil**: On Monday of this week, the 2602 contract of domestic crude oil futures showed a trend of increasing volume and decreasing open interest, fluctuating strongly, and rebounding significantly. The price reached a high of 438.3 yuan/barrel and a low of 428.2 yuan/barrel, and finally closed 2.46% higher at 437.9 yuan/barrel. The geopolitical risk in the Middle East has become prominent again, and the conflict between the US and Venezuela has escalated, posing a risk of restricted oil exports from Venezuela. The enhanced geopolitical premium has driven the oil price to rebound, and the crude oil futures may stabilize temporarily in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of December 14, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 498,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,200 tons or 2.08%. The bonded area inventory was 77,500 tons, an increase of 4.88%, and the general trade inventory was 421,400 tons, an increase of 1.58%. The inbound rate of the bonded warehouse increased by 2.42 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.38 percentage points. The inbound rate of the general trade warehouse decreased by 0.57 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.52 percentage points [9]. - In the week of December 12, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.14%, a week - on - week increase of 1.81 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.49 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.55%, a week - on - week increase of 0.55 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.07 percentage points. The resumption of production of maintenance enterprises drove the capacity utilization rate, but the overall shipment was slow, and most enterprises were in a state of flexible production control, limiting the increase of the overall capacity utilization rate. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises will run weakly and stably this week [9]. - In November 2025, the inventory warning index of Chinese automobile dealers was 55.6%, a year - on - year increase of 3.8 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 3.0 percentage points, indicating a decline in the prosperity of the automobile circulation industry. The logistics industry prosperity index in November was 50.9%, a month - on - month increase of 0.2 percentage points [10]. - In November 2025, about 100,000 heavy - duty trucks were sold in the Chinese market (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 6% compared with October and a year - on - year increase of about 46% compared with 68,500 in the same period last year. As of now, the heavy - duty truck market has achieved eight consecutive months of growth, with an average growth rate of 42%. From January to November this year, the cumulative sales of the heavy - duty truck market exceeded 1 million, reaching 1.03 million, a year - on - year increase of about 26% [10]. Methanol - As of the week of December 12, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was maintained at 84.31%, a week - on - week increase of 0.57%, a month - on - month increase of 0.37%, and a year - on - year increase of 2.95%. The average weekly methanol production in China reached 2.0398 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 16,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 63,700 tons, and a significant increase of 148,300 tons compared with 1.8915 million tons in the same period last year [11]. - As of the week of December 12, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was maintained at 31.37%, a week - on - week increase of 0.03%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was maintained at 8.68%, a week - on - week increase of 0.48%. The acetic acid operating rate was maintained at 73.81%, a week - on - week increase of 6.53%. The MTBE operating rate was maintained at 59.12%, a week - on - week increase of 0.21%. The average operating load of domestic coal - (methanol) to olefin plants was 82.06%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.76 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 0.24% [11]. - As of December 18, 2025, the futures profit of domestic methanol - to - olefin was - 205 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 86 yuan/ton and a month - on - month decrease of 507 yuan/ton [11]. - As of the week of December 12, 2025, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was maintained at 1.0201 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 98,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 258,900 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 88,400 tons. As of the week of December 17, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory in China reached 391,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 38,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 32,500 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 9,500 tons [12]. Crude Oil - As of the week of December 12, 2025, the number of active oil drilling platforms in the US was 414, a week - on - week increase of 1 and a decrease of 68 compared with the same period last year [12]. - As of the week of December 12, 2025, the daily average crude oil production in the US was 13.843 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 10,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 239,000 barrels per day, remaining at a historical high [12]. - As of the week of December 12, 2025, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 424.4 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 1.274 million barrels and a year - on - year increase of 3.401 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in the Cushing area of Oklahoma, the US, was 20.862 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 742,000 barrels. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory was 412.2 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 249,000 barrels [13]. - The US refinery operating rate was maintained at 94.8%, a week - on - week increase of 0.3 percentage points, a month - on - month increase of 4.8 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 3.0 percentage points [13]. - As of December 9, 2025, the average non - commercial net long position of WTI crude oil was 58,433 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 7,396 contracts and a significant decrease of 6,438 contracts or 9.92% compared with the November average of 64,871 contracts. As of December 16, 2025, the average net long position of Brent crude oil futures funds was 40,988 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 72,871 contracts and a significant decrease of 114,200 contracts or 73.59% compared with the November average of 155,188 contracts [13]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price (yuan) | Change from Previous Day (yuan) | Futures Main Contract (yuan) | Change from Previous Day (yuan) | Basis (yuan) | Change in Basis (yuan) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,850 | - 200 | 15,205 | +15 | - 355 | - 15 | | Methanol | 2,155 | +5 | 2,155 | +7 | 0 | - 7 | | Crude Oil | 395.2 | +0.1 | 437.9 | +11.3 | - 42.7 | - 11.2 | [14] 3.3 Related Charts - **Rubber**: The report provides charts on rubber basis, 1 - 5 month spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, all - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [15][16][17] - **Methanol**: The report provides charts on methanol basis, 1 - 5 month spread, domestic port inventory, inland social inventory, methanol - to - olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [26][28][30] - **Crude Oil**: The report provides charts on crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [39][41][43]