上 市 公 司 公 司 研 究 / 公 司 深 度 市场数据： 2025 年 12 月 29 日 收盘价（港币） 189.00 恒生中国企业指数 8891.71 52 周最高/最低（港币） 191.00/86.25 H 股市值（亿港币） 4,282.20 流通 H 股（百万股） 2,265.71 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： -6% 194% 12/30 01/30 02/28 03/31 04/30 05/31 06/30 07/31 08/31 09/30 10/31 11/30 HSCEI 渣打集团 资料来源：Bloomberg 证券分析师 郑庆明 A0230519090001 zhengqm@swsresearch.com 林颖颖 A0230522070004 linyy@swsresearch.com 冯思远 A0230522090005 fengsy@swsresearch.com 李禹昊 A0230525070004 liyh2@swsresearch.com 联系人 李禹昊 A0230525070004 liyh2@swsresearch.com 2025 年 12 月 30 日 渣打集团 ...

| [Table_Title] 【广发批零社服&海外】百胜中国 | | --- | | （09987.HK/YUMC.N）系列深度二 | 穿越周期，向下一个万店进击 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： 盈利预测：（货币单位为美元，汇率采用 1 港元=0.13 美元） | [Table_Finance] | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 10978 | 11303 | 11652 | 12301 | 13070 | | 增长率 （ % ） | 14.7% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 5.6% | 6.2% | | EBITDA（百万元） | 1559 | 1638 | 1731 | 1861 | 1992 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 827 | 911 | 921 | 1007 | 1094 | | 增长率 （ ） % | 87.1% | 10.2% | 1.1% | 9.4% | 8.6% | | EPS（元/股） | 2.00 | 2.3 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Smoore International (06969) is maintained as "Buy" [7] Core Views - The report highlights the gradual improvement in electronic cigarette regulations, emphasizing the bottom value of Smoore International as a compliant market leader poised to benefit from the changing supply landscape [2][3] - The report anticipates significant revenue growth for Smoore International, projecting revenues of HK$141.32 billion, HK$163.76 billion, and HK$195.88 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of +19.78%, +15.88%, and +19.62% [11] Summary by Sections Regulatory Environment - Recent regulatory developments include a comprehensive crackdown on illegal electronic cigarette activities, with the government emphasizing the need for stricter oversight and compliance in production and sales [2] - The National Tobacco Monopoly Administration has initiated measures to curb excessive competition and prevent overcapacity in the electronic cigarette industry [2] Market Performance - British American Tobacco's Hilo brand is expected to see positive growth, with new product launches in various countries contributing to revenue increases [3] - The report notes a recovery in the vaping segment, with improved sales for the Vuse brand in the U.S. due to enforcement actions against illegal products [4] Financial Highlights - Smoore International executed significant share buybacks totaling approximately HK$1.99 billion, reflecting confidence in its long-term growth prospects [5] - The forecasted net profit for Smoore International is projected to be HK$9.13 billion, HK$18.46 billion, and HK$26.75 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, with respective growth rates of -29.94%, +102.23%, and +44.87% [11]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [3]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leading IP ecosystem platform in China, leveraging content and community operations to drive growth. It has developed nearly 200 IPs and is enhancing its commercial value through a unique product development model [6][11]. - The company is expected to achieve total revenues of 29.96 billion, 32.62 billion, and 35.32 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 12%, 9%, and 8% respectively. Adjusted net profits are projected to be 2.26 billion, 3.26 billion, and 4.33 billion yuan, with significant growth in the latter two years [44][43]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has a total share capital of 413.76 million shares, with a market price of HKD 190.80, resulting in a market capitalization of approximately HKD 78.95 billion [1]. - The company has undergone significant development since its inception in 2009, evolving from a community platform to a comprehensive video community with a focus on IP development and commercialization [10][11]. Business Highlights - AI marketing is enhancing content production and optimizing advertising efficiency, with the introduction of the "Peanut AI" tool expected to significantly improve content creation and advertising effectiveness [25][27]. - The advertising business is projected to grow substantially, with revenues expected to increase by 27.7% and 20% in 2024 and the first half of 2025, respectively [29][31]. - The gaming segment is also showing strong performance, with revenues from established games and new releases contributing to overall growth. The game "Three Kingdoms: Strategize the World" has been a key driver of revenue [37][34]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to see a steady increase in revenue and profitability, with adjusted net profits turning positive by 2025. The projected P/E ratio for 2025 is 32.2, indicating a favorable valuation compared to peers [41][44]. - The financial analysis indicates a significant improvement in gross margins, expected to reach 39.6% by 2027, driven by operational efficiencies and revenue growth [43][20].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a strong expectation for future returns exceeding the market benchmark by over 20% within the next 6-12 months [5][10]. Core Insights - The approval of the CSF-1R inhibitor, Beijiemai® (pimitinib), by the NMPA marks a significant milestone as it is the first systemic treatment for tenosynovial giant cell tumor (TGCT) in China and the first independently developed drug in this category [1][5]. - The clinical trial application for the KRAS G12D inhibitor, ABSK141, has also been approved, with an open-label I/II phase study aimed at evaluating its safety and efficacy in patients with advanced solid tumors carrying the KRAS G12D mutation [1]. - Preliminary data from the Phase II clinical study of the oral PD-L1 inhibitor, ABSK043, in combination with the EGFR inhibitor, furmonertinib, for treating non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) shows good safety and tolerability [2]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for the company are as follows: 2025 revenue is projected at 612.1 million, 2026 at 678.8 million, and 2027 at 627.2 million, reflecting growth rates of 21.5%, 10.9%, and -7.6% respectively [4][9]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 82.2 million in 2025, 133.8 million in 2026, and 98.4 million in 2027, with significant growth rates of 190.5% and 62.7% for 2025 and 2026 respectively [4][9]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 0.12 in 2025, 0.20 in 2026, and 0.14 in 2027, indicating a positive trend in profitability [4][9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6][10]. Core Insights - Recent significant increases in copper and fiberglass cloth prices have led the company to issue a price increase notice for its copper-clad laminates, with the frequency of price hikes during the peak season exceeding expectations, validating the positive outlook for the copper-clad laminate and electronic cloth industries driven by AI demand [2][10]. - The company is positioned as a rare integrated player in the industry, with a simultaneous push for product upgrades, which is expected to lead to a dual benefit of price increases and enhanced profitability [10]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections are as follows: - 2024A: 18,541 million HKD - 2025E: 21,784 million HKD (+11%) - 2026E: 25,080 million HKD (+17%) - 2027E: 28,353 million HKD (+15%) [4]. - Net profit forecasts are: - 2024A: 1,326 million HKD - 2025E: 2,349 million HKD (+77%) - 2026E: 3,123 million HKD (+33%) - 2027E: 3,815 million HKD (+22%) [4]. - The company maintains a target price of 20 HKD [10]. Market Data - The current stock price is 13.18 HKD, with a market capitalization of 41,324 million HKD and a total share count of 3,135 million [7]. - The stock has traded within a range of 6.68 to 13.92 HKD over the past 52 weeks [7]. Industry Context - The company is benefiting from a favorable pricing cycle in the copper-clad laminate market, with multiple price increases already implemented in recent months due to rising costs of raw materials [10]. - The strategic focus on high-end product structures is expected to align with the price increase cycle, enhancing profitability as new products are gradually introduced [10].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Insights - The company is a leader in the engineering machinery sector, with a diversified business model that includes concrete machinery, lifting machinery, and agricultural machinery, among others. It has established a strong global presence through overseas manufacturing and strategic acquisitions [3][4] - The domestic engineering machinery market is showing signs of recovery, while international markets present significant growth opportunities. The company is well-positioned to benefit from both domestic and international demand [8][9] - The report forecasts revenue growth for the company, projecting revenues of 53.26 billion, 61.67 billion, and 70.77 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 4.85 billion, 6.30 billion, and 7.84 billion RMB [4][9] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has evolved from the Changsha Construction Machinery Research Institute, officially established in 1992, and has become a successful mixed-ownership enterprise. It has a comprehensive product line covering 15 categories and 745 models, with 29 domestic industrial parks and 10 overseas R&D and manufacturing bases [3][18] - The company has successfully integrated various business segments, including engineering machinery, agricultural machinery, and financial services, creating a multi-faceted business ecosystem [3][24] Market Dynamics - The domestic engineering machinery market is recovering, with signs of stabilization in real estate and infrastructure investments. The report notes that new construction areas in real estate have been declining for six years but are nearing a bottom [8][54] - Infrastructure investment has shown consistent growth, with significant government projects underway, which are expected to drive demand for engineering machinery [59][60] Financial Projections - The company is expected to see revenue growth rates of 17.12%, 15.78%, and 14.77% for the years 2025 to 2027, with net profit growth rates of 37.72%, 29.93%, and 24.46% for the same period [4][9] - The report highlights that the company's valuation is significantly undervalued compared to peers, with projected P/E ratios of 12, 9, and 7 for 2025 to 2027, indicating a potential upside of 57% based on a target market capitalization of 921 billion RMB [9] Competitive Landscape - The company is compared with peers such as Sany Heavy Industry, XCMG, and LiuGong, which have higher average P/E ratios, indicating that the company is undervalued in the current market [9] - The report emphasizes the company's strong international presence, with overseas revenue accounting for over 51% of total revenue by 2024, showcasing its successful global expansion strategy [36][70]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Accumulate" rating for the company [4][10]. Core Insights - The company is a leader in thermal management and is accelerating its globalization process, with its robotics business opening new growth ceilings [3][7]. - The company achieved a total revenue of 24.03 billion RMB in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 17%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.24 billion RMB, with a growth rate exceeding 40% [7][27]. - The report forecasts net profits of 4.253 billion RMB, 4.650 billion RMB, and 5.099 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with growth rates of 37.2%, 9.4%, and 9.6% [10][11]. Summary by Sections 1. Globalization and Business Expansion - The company has successfully listed in both A and H shares, enhancing its global competitiveness and financing channels [7][42]. - The company has a strong market position in traditional refrigeration components and automotive thermal management, with significant revenue contributions from both sectors [9][28]. 2. Mature Business: Strong Position in Refrigeration and Automotive Components - The traditional refrigeration business remains robust, contributing 64% of total revenue in H1 2025, while the automotive components business has rapidly increased its share to 36% [28][34]. - The company has maintained a leading market share in key refrigeration components, with electronic expansion valves and microchannel heat exchangers showing significant growth [50][58]. 3. Emerging Business: Energy Storage and Robotics - The energy storage and robotics sectors are expected to drive future growth, with the company leveraging its existing technology to enter these markets [9][12]. - The robotics division has been established to focus on high-value electromechanical actuators, with plans for mass production in collaboration with global clients [9][12]. 4. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 24.56 billion RMB, 27.95 billion RMB, and 31.91 billion RMB from 2023 to 2025, with corresponding growth rates of 15.0%, 13.8%, and 14.2% [8][10]. - The report estimates a reasonable market capitalization of 1,433 billion RMB, indicating a potential upside of 12.3% from the current H-share market value [10][11].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [2][7] Core Insights - The company is positioned for high-quality growth driven by its "Land-Sea-Air Interconnection" strategy, with a focus on power, energy storage, and aviation battery sectors. It has achieved significant milestones, including the certification and mass production of aviation-grade power batteries [6][15] - The demand for power and energy storage batteries is expected to rise significantly, supported by the increasing penetration of electric vehicles and the global energy storage market. The company is anticipated to benefit from this demand surge [6][44] - The company has demonstrated strong financial performance, with a revenue of 3.17 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 71.9%, and a net profit of 220 million yuan, marking a successful turnaround [6][30] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 4.16 billion yuan - 2024: 5.13 billion yuan - 2025E: 7.94 billion yuan - 2026E: 12.98 billion yuan - 2027E: 18.04 billion yuan - The expected growth rates are 26.48% for 2023, 23.28% for 2024, and 54.78% for 2025 [5] - The net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders is projected to be: - 2023: -590 million yuan - 2024: 91 million yuan - 2025: 537 million yuan - 2026: 1.21 billion yuan - 2027: 1.84 billion yuan [5] Market Dynamics - The global demand for energy storage batteries is expected to grow from 530 GWh in 2025 to 1,343 GWh by 2028, becoming a new engine for lithium battery demand [6][49] - The company is expected to increase its market share and benefit from the recovery of the industry and its technological advantages, leading to improved profitability [6][44] Strategic Focus - The company has established a robust governance structure and a stable ownership model, which supports its long-term development. The management team has extensive industry experience and international management capabilities [6][24][28] - The company has a clear product strategy, focusing on high energy density and safety in its battery offerings, which positions it well in the competitive landscape [6][18][21]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company, targeting a market value of 48.7 billion RMB [6][5]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leader in AI4S (Artificial Intelligence for Science), with significant growth potential in drug discovery and new materials [5][51]. - Revenue is expected to grow substantially, with projections of 795 million RMB in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 198% [6][5]. - The company has established a strong partnership with DoveTree, securing a strategic collaboration worth 5.99 billion USD, which includes an upfront payment of 51 million USD [7][5]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue for the years 2023 to 2025 is projected to be 174 million RMB, 266 million RMB, and 795 million RMB, with corresponding growth rates of 30.8%, 52.75%, and 198.39% [4][6]. - The adjusted net profit is forecasted to transition from a loss of 522 million RMB in 2023 to a profit of 309 million RMB by 2027, indicating a significant turnaround [4][6]. - The company’s price-to-sales (PS) ratios for 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 47x, 38x, and 26x, respectively, with a target PS of 49x for 2026 [6][5]. Business Model and Technological Edge - The company utilizes a comprehensive approach combining quantum physics, AI, and robotics to enhance drug discovery processes, covering the entire lifecycle from drug design to clinical trials [23][5]. - The core technology includes high-precision virtual data generation through quantum physics, which addresses data scarcity in AI drug research [23][5]. - The company has a unique capability to integrate both dry and wet lab experiments, enhancing research efficiency and data accumulation for model optimization [5][51]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company is recognized for its strong technical capabilities and has a competitive edge in the AI pharmaceutical sector, with a focus on both drug discovery and new materials [5][51]. - The market for AI4S is projected to reach nearly 50 billion USD, highlighting the expansive potential for the company's technology in both pharmaceutical and materials research [5][51]. - The report emphasizes the strong migration potential of the underlying technology from drug discovery to new materials, leveraging similar physical principles [51][5].