业绩简评 11 月 21 日公司披露 25Q3 报告，Q3 营收 57.97 亿元（+28%），调 整后归母净利润为 7.67 亿元（同比+11.7%）,调整后归母净利率 13.2%（同比-2pct）。 经营分析 3Q25 国内名创/海外名创/TOPTOY 营收 29.09/23.12/5.75 亿元（同 比（+19.3%/+27.7%/+111.4%）。 国内名创：Q3 同店高个位数正增、开店环比高增，积极打磨自有 IP。Q1/Q2/Q3/M10 国内名创同店中个位数下降/低个位数上升/高 个位数上升/低双位数上升，预计得益于积极开设 IP 大店、换址 或扩建优化同店；截至 Q3 门店数量达到 4407 家（同/环比+157/+ 102 家），其中一/二/三线门店同比+21/+46/+90 家。截至 11 月公 司签约 16 位潮玩艺术家，并积极打磨自有 IP 糯米儿等。 海外名创：增长质量提升，北美同店增长超预期。3QGMV 同比+27. 5%，同店低个位数上升，截至 3Q25 海外总门店数 3424 家，同/环 比+488/+117 家，亚洲（不含中国）/北美洲/拉丁美洲/欧洲门店 数量分别为 1748 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 29.23 HKD, based on a 12.0x PS for 2026E, reflecting a 10% premium over comparable companies [4][6]. Core Insights - The company is making significant strides in the robotics industry with the launch of the SesameX multi-dimensional intelligent computing platform, which emphasizes safety and intelligence, facilitating rapid product deployment in real-world scenarios [1][2]. - Strategic partnerships with companies like Zhongji Xuchuang and Junsheng Electronics are expected to enhance the integration of chips and optical modules, providing new technological solutions for the smart automotive and robotics sectors [1][3]. - The company is actively building an ecosystem in the robotics field, collaborating with industry partners to promote the application of its technology in smart warehousing, transportation, and industrial automation, with commercialization expected to accelerate [2]. Revenue Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 8.4 billion, 14.2 billion, and 20.4 billion RMB for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of 76.8%, 69.3%, and 44.0% [4][19]. - The report anticipates a comprehensive layout for edge AI, ranging from low-power to high-performance chips, supporting the company's optimistic outlook in the robotics and optical communication sectors [4][19].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy (Maintain)" with a target price of 124.52 HKD per share [5][9]. Core Insights - The company's core revenue for Q3 2025 was 24.7 billion CNY, a year-over-year decrease of 7%, primarily due to a decline in online marketing revenue, which fell by 18% to 15.3 billion CNY. Non-online marketing revenue, however, increased by 21% to 9.3 billion CNY. The change in revenue structure led to a gross margin decline to 47.3%, down 11.5 percentage points year-over-year. The company reported a core operating loss of 15 billion CNY and an adjusted net profit of 3.8 billion CNY for Q3 2025. The company is currently transitioning from traditional search engine advertising to AI-driven business models, with expectations of short-term pressure on traditional advertising revenue but potential improvements in profitability following asset impairments [8][9]. Financial Forecasts - The company’s projected adjusted net profits for 2025-2027 are 19.3 billion CNY, 19.5 billion CNY, and 22.0 billion CNY, respectively. The PE valuation method suggests a reasonable value of 311.7 billion CNY, equivalent to 342.5 billion HKD, based on a 16x PE for 2026 [9][11]. Financial Performance - Key financial metrics for the company include: - Revenue (in million CNY): 134,598 in 2023, projected to decline to 128,951 in 2025, before recovering to 144,353 in 2027 - Gross Margin: 52% in 2023, expected to decrease to 44% in 2025, then recover to 47% by 2027 - Net Profit Margin: 21% in 2023, projected to drop to 15% in 2025, and stabilize at 15% in 2027 - Earnings Per Share (CNY): 10.24 in 2023, declining to 7.12 in 2025, and recovering to 8.09 by 2027 [4][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Lenovo Group (00992.HK) [1] Core Insights - Lenovo Group's FY2026H1 performance shows revenue growth driven by AI, with total revenue reaching $39.282 billion, a year-on-year increase of 18.0%, and net profit attributable to shareholders at $850 million, up 40.5% year-on-year [8] - The company benefits from strong performance across its three main business segments, with AI driving revenue and profit growth, enhancing overall competitiveness [8] Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: - FY2024A: $56.864 billion - FY2025A: $69.077 billion - FY2026E: $76.417 billion - FY2027E: $83.943 billion - FY2028E: $90.407 billion - Year-on-year growth rates: FY2025A +21.48%, FY2026E +10.63%, FY2027E +9.85%, FY2028E +7.70% [1][9] - **Net Profit Forecasts**: - FY2024A: $1.011 billion - FY2025A: $1.384 billion - FY2026E: $1.868 billion - FY2027E: $2.089 billion - FY2028E: $2.332 billion - Year-on-year growth rates: FY2025A +37.01%, FY2026E +34.93%, FY2027E +11.84%, FY2028E +11.64% [1][9] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - FY2024A: $0.08 - FY2025A: $0.11 - FY2026E: $0.15 - FY2027E: $0.17 - FY2028E: $0.19 [1] - **Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratios**: - FY2026E: 9.04 - FY2027E: 8.08 - FY2028E: 7.24 [1] Business Segment Performance - **IDG (Intelligent Devices Group)**: - Revenue of $28.57 billion in FY2026H1, up 14.6% year-on-year, with a strong operating profit margin of 7.2% [8] - **ISG (Infrastructure Solutions Group)**: - Revenue of $8.38 billion in FY2026H1, up 29.6% year-on-year, driven by demand for AI infrastructure [8] - **SSG (Solutions and Services Group)**: - Revenue reached $4.81 billion in FY2026H1, up 18.9% year-on-year, with a high operating profit margin of 22% [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9]. Core Views - The company reported FY2026H1 results (from April 2025 to September 2025) with main revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders at HKD 80.45 billion and HKD 11.46 billion, respectively, showing a year-on-year change of -3% and +1% [2][6]. - Domestic sales continued to decline but at a reduced rate, while export sales remained stable. Domestic furniture sales decreased by 6%, with offline sales increasing by 14% and online sales decreasing by 12%. In terms of product categories, sofa and related products and mattresses and related products saw declines of 6% and 7%, respectively [7]. - Export revenue grew by 1% year-on-year, with North America, Europe, and other markets/Home Group showing increases of 0.3%, 4%, and 2%, respectively [7]. Summary by Sections Revenue - Domestic sales continued to decline, but the rate of decline has narrowed. The company is adjusting its strategies to improve performance in the domestic market [7]. - Export sales showed a slight increase, with specific declines in sofa sales in North America and Europe, while other product categories contributed positively [7]. Profitability - The company experienced improvements in gross margin and operating profit margin during FY2026H1, with gross margin and net profit margin increasing by 0.9 and 0.5 percentage points year-on-year [7]. - The decrease in raw material costs contributed to the improvement in margins, with an overall reduction of 6% in raw material costs [7]. Future Outlook - The company plans to adjust its domestic sales strategies, including restructuring dealer and store layouts and enhancing online sales channels [7]. - For export sales, the company is well-positioned to manage potential impacts from U.S. tariff policies due to its early and efficient overseas production layout [7]. - The company maintains a high dividend payout ratio of 50.8%, with an expected dividend yield of 6.2% if this ratio is maintained for the full year [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Insights - On November 20, 2025, the company launched its first super-range model, the Xiaopeng X9, which features the longest range globally for a seven-seater vehicle, with a pure electric range of 452 km and a comprehensive range of 1602 km [2][4]. - The pricing for the two versions, 1602 Max and 1602 Ultra, is set at 309,800 and 329,800 yuan respectively, with promotional offers for early depositors [2][4]. - The company anticipates a significant increase in sales due to a strong new vehicle cycle, enhanced marketing strategies, and channel transformations, projecting delivery volumes of 125,000 to 132,000 units in Q4 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 36.6% to 44.3% [2][10]. - Financial improvements are expected from scale enhancements, cost reductions from platform and technology, and the expansion of software profitability models alongside continued growth in international markets [2][10]. Summary by Sections Event Description - The Xiaopeng X9 super-range model was officially launched on November 20, 2025, with two versions available at prices of 309,800 and 329,800 yuan [4][10]. Event Commentary - The Xiaopeng X9 is positioned as a large MPV with advanced features, including a 1.5T range extender engine and an 800V high-voltage architecture, which supports rapid charging and offers extensive smart driving capabilities [10]. - The company is expected to benefit from a strong new vehicle cycle, with multiple new models anticipated to enhance sales momentum [10]. Financial Outlook - Revenue projections for 2025 are estimated between 21.5 billion and 23 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 33.5% to 42.8% [10]. - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 77.3 billion and 130.2 billion yuan in 2025 and 2026, respectively, with corresponding price-to-sales ratios of 1.8X and 1.0X [10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Baidu Group is "Outperform the Market" [7] Core Insights - Baidu Group reported a total revenue of 31.2 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 7%. The adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.8 billion yuan, down 36% year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 12% [1][10] - The company faced a significant impairment loss of approximately 16 billion yuan due to the rapid enhancement of high-performance computing capabilities, which is expected to mark a low point for profit margins, with future improvements anticipated [1][10] - Advertising revenue continued to be under pressure, declining 18% year-on-year to 15.3 billion yuan, accounting for 62% of Baidu's core revenue. The company is accelerating its transition to AI search, with 70% of search result pages now containing AI-generated content [2][16] - AI new business revenue reached 10 billion yuan, with subscription revenue from AI high-performance computing facilities growing by 128% year-on-year. The AI business is divided into three segments: intelligent cloud infrastructure, AI applications, and AI-native marketing services [3][25] Financial Performance and Forecast - For the fiscal years 2025 to 2027, the adjusted net profit is projected to be 19.6 billion yuan, 21.6 billion yuan, and 24.6 billion yuan, respectively, with downward adjustments of 7%, 11%, and 12% [29] - The company expects to see a gradual improvement in profit margins as resource utilization increases [3][25] - The financial forecast indicates a slight decline in revenue for 2025, with an estimated total revenue of 130.4 billion yuan, followed by a recovery in subsequent years [5][33]

证券研究报告·海外公司点评·软件服务(HS) 快手-W（01024.HK） 2025Q3 业绩点评：业绩超预期，期待 AI 提 高平台变现效率 买入（维持） | Table_EPS] [盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 113,470 | 126,898 | 142,122 | 155,045 | 167,072 | | 同比（%） | 20.48 | 11.83 | 12.00 | 9.09 | 7.76 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 6,396 | 15,335 | 18,052 | 20,015 | 22,099 | | 同比（%） | 146.72 | 139.76 | 17.72 | 10.87 | 10.41 | | Non-IFRS 净利润（百万元） | 10,271 | 17,716 | 20,552 | 22,935 | 25,246 | | 同比（%） | - | 72.49 | 16.01 | 11.60 | 10 ...

证券研究报告 公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 点评报告 [Table_StockAndRank] 中通快递-W(2057.HK) 投资评级 买入 秦梦鸽 交运行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524110002 邮 箱：qinmengge@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦 B座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 中通快递 2025 年三季报点评：Q3 件量同比 +9.8%， "反内卷"带动盈利修复 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 11 月 23 日 上次评级 买入 [[Table_Author] 匡培钦 Table_BaseData] 交运行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524070004 邮 箱：kuangpeiqin@cindasc.com 事件：公司发布 2025 年三季度业绩公告，前三季度实现营业收入 345.88 亿元，同比+10.3%，调整后净利润 68.18 亿元，同比-8.1%；其中 Q3 实现 营业收入 118.65 亿元，同比+11. ...

证券研究报告·海外公司点评·旅游及消闲设施(HS) 携程集团-S（09961.HK） 海外市场持续拓展，看好国际业务份额提升 及利润空间 买入（维持） | Table_EPS] [盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 44,510 | 53,294 | 61,878 | 69,635 | 76,171 | | 同比（%） | 122.12 | 19.73 | 16.11 | 12.54 | 9.39 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 9,918 | 17,067 | 32,267 | 19,109 | 21,221 | | 同比（%） | 606.91 | 72.08 | 89.06 | (40.78) | 11.05 | | Non-GAAP 净利润（百万元） | 13,071 | 18,041 | 32,263 | 20,009 | 22,023 | | 同比（%） | 910.12 | 38.02 | 78.83 | (37.98) | ...