证券研究报告 | 季报点评 gszqdatemark 2025 11 19 年 月 日 小鹏汽车-W（09868.HK） 看好强势产品周期，物理 AI 商业化推进中 25Q3 主业盈利承压，技术合作超预期。公司 Q3 交付 11.6 万辆汽车，同比大增 149%，带动收入同比增长 102% 至 203.8 亿元。其中，汽车销售收入/服务及其他销售收入分别为 181/23 亿元，同比增长 105%/78%。服务及其 他收入增长主要系：1）售后服务收入增长；2）向汽车 OEM 提供的技术研发服务收入增长，根据协议，Q3 已成 功达成若干里程碑。盈利性方面，公司 Q3 整体实现了 20.1%的毛利率，同比/环比分别提升 4.9pct/2.8pct。其 中，汽车销售/服务及其他毛利率分别为 13.1%/74.6%。汽车毛利率环比下降 1.2pct，主要是由于 1）低毛利率 的 Mona M03 销售占比提升，2）产品换代。公司 Q3 研发/销管费用分别为 24.3/24.9 亿元，同比和环比均有所 增加，主要是由于扩充产品组合、与新车型及技术开发相关的开支增加、销量上升带动特许经营店支付的佣金增 加、营销及广告开支增 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Ctrip Group-S (09961.HK) with a target price of 648.83 HKD, based on expected strong performance in the upcoming months [5]. Core Insights - Ctrip Group's Q3 2025 performance shows robust growth driven by strong travel demand, with total revenue reaching 18.3 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 16%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 19.9 billion RMB, and adjusted EBITDA was 6.3 billion RMB [1][2]. Revenue Breakdown - Accommodation booking revenue was 8 billion RMB, up 18% year-on-year, supported by strong outbound travel and international hotel bookings. Transportation ticketing revenue reached 6.3 billion RMB, a 12% increase, driven by robust international flight bookings. Vacation revenue was 1.6 billion RMB, growing 3%, primarily due to the expansion of international product lines. Business travel management revenue was 756 million RMB, up 15% as more companies adopted these services [2]. International Business Performance - Ctrip's international OTA platform saw total bookings increase by approximately 60% year-on-year, with the Asia-Pacific region being the largest contributor. All regions experienced growth exceeding 50%, with mobile bookings accounting for over 70% of total bookings. Inbound travel bookings more than doubled, with significant growth from the Asia-Pacific, Europe, and the US. Outbound hotel and flight bookings increased nearly 20%, reaching 140% of the levels seen in the same period of 2019 [2]. Demographic Trends - There is a strong demand from both senior and young travelers, indicating a trend of intergenerational diversity. The number of users in Ctrip's "Old Friends Club" grew over 70%, with affluent senior travelers focusing on quality travel experiences. Ctrip is customizing more products and services for this demographic. Young travelers are increasingly drawn to experience-driven travel, with revenues from this segment seeing triple-digit growth [2]. Profit Forecast and Investment Suggestion - The report anticipates continued enthusiasm for leisure travel, projecting revenues of 61.56 billion RMB, 70.78 billion RMB, and 80.36 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 15.5%, 15.0%, and 13.5%. Net profits are expected to be 31.92 billion RMB, 20.58 billion RMB, and 23.86 billion RMB, with growth rates of 87.0%, -35.5%, and 15.9% respectively. The report highlights Ctrip's significant domestic business advantages and the potential for international business to contribute additional growth [2][4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 27.07 [7][5]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of RMB 89.2 billion for Q3 2025, representing a quarter-on-quarter increase of 27% and a year-on-year increase of 15%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 3.8 billion, up 59% quarter-on-quarter and 6% year-on-year [1]. - The company achieved a record high of 760,000 new car sales in Q3 2025, with a gross margin of 17%, reflecting a positive trend in vehicle pricing and cost management [2]. - The sales of new energy vehicles reached 440,000 units in Q3 2025, accounting for 58% of total sales, indicating a strong focus on the transition to new energy [3]. - The successful launch of high-end models such as Zeekr 9X and Galaxy M9 is expected to enhance profitability and market positioning [4]. - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted upwards, with net profits projected at RMB 17.8 billion, RMB 19.2 billion, and RMB 24 billion respectively, reflecting strong growth potential [5]. Summary by Sections Q3 Performance - Revenue for Q3 2025 was RMB 89.2 billion, with a net profit of RMB 3.8 billion, aligning with expectations [1]. - The company sold 760,000 vehicles in Q3 2025, achieving a gross margin of 17% [2]. New Energy Transition - New energy vehicle sales reached 440,000 units, representing 58% of total sales, with significant growth in the Galaxy brand [3]. - The company plans to expand its overseas market presence in 2026, including acquisitions and new manufacturing facilities [3]. Product Launches - The Zeekr 9X and Galaxy M9 have seen strong initial sales, contributing to the company's high-margin product offerings [4]. Profitability and Valuation - The net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been increased, with a target price set at HKD 27.07 based on a 13x PE ratio for 2026 [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 235.40 for the Hong Kong stock and USD 243.20 for the US stock [7]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of RMB 31.2 billion for Q3 2025, a year-on-year decline of 7.1%, which was better than the expected decline of 8.6%. The strong performance was attributed to the continued robust growth of AI cloud revenue and a less severe decline in core advertising revenue [1]. - The company has disclosed three major AI business lines, collectively generating approximately RMB 10 billion in revenue, accounting for about 40% of the core total revenue, with a year-on-year growth exceeding 50% [1]. - The management expects improvements in core revenue and non-GAAP operating profit in Q4 2025, driven by the ongoing transformation of the advertising system and a lower year-on-year comparison base [1]. Summary by Sections AI Business Growth - The AI cloud revenue grew by 21% year-on-year to RMB 6.2 billion, with subscription revenue from AI high-performance infrastructure increasing by 128% [2]. - The three newly disclosed AI business lines include: 1. Smart Cloud Infrastructure: Revenue of RMB 4.2 billion, up 33% year-on-year. 2. AI Applications: Revenue of RMB 2.6 billion, up 6% year-on-year. 3. AI Native Marketing Services: Revenue of RMB 2.8 billion, up 262% year-on-year [3]. Autonomous Driving - The company's autonomous driving service, "萝卜快跑," has achieved 100% unmanned operation in domestic cities, with a total order volume of 3.1 million in Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 212% [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company adjusted its non-GAAP net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to RMB 19.4 billion, RMB 21.5 billion, and RMB 24.1 billion, respectively, reflecting a 19.7% increase for 2025 due to better-than-expected Q3 performance [5]. - The valuation window has been shifted to 2026, with a target price of USD 243.20 and HKD 235.40 based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation [28].

| H70420@capitalcom.tw | | | --- | --- | | 顾向君 目标价(HKD) | 39.5 | 公司基本资讯 | 产业别 | 旅游及消闲设 | | --- | --- | | | 施 | | H 股价(2025/11/18) | 34.10 | | 恒生指数(2025/11/18) | 25,930.0 | | 股价 12 个月高/低 | 35.38/22.68 | | 总发行股数(百万) | 3,069.39 | | H 股数(百万) | 108.82 | | H 市值(亿元) | 777.07 | | 主要股东 | 永冠控股有限 公司(22.24%) | | 每股净值(元) | 3.87 | | 股价/账面净值 | 8.81 | | | 一个月 三个月 一年 | | 股价涨跌(%) | 24.91% 33.66% 14.28% | 近期评等 | 出刊日期 | 前日收盘 | 评等 | | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-08-21 | 26.30 | 买进 | | 2025-05-21 | 28.70 | 买进 | | 2025-03-21 | 28.50 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Group with a target price of HKD 53.8, down from HKD 65.4 [5][13]. Core Insights - Xiaomi's Q3 2025 performance showed a total revenue increase of 22% year-on-year to RMB 113.1 billion, aligning with expectations, while adjusted net profit surged by 80.9% to RMB 11.31 billion, exceeding Bloomberg consensus by 12.6% [1][5]. - The report highlights that the storage super cycle is a significant variable affecting Xiaomi's stock price and performance in 2026. Compared to other smartphone manufacturers, Xiaomi has advantages in smartphone shipment volume (third globally), high-end smartphone ratio, and a robust non-mobile business that is less impacted by storage costs [1][2]. - The report anticipates that storage price increases will affect Xiaomi's smartphone shipment volume, product pricing, and gross margins, leading to a downward revision of the 2026 smartphone shipment forecast to 165 million units from 182 million units, and gross margin to 10.7% from 12% [2][3]. Summary by Sections Smartphone/IoT/Internet Business - In Q3, Xiaomi's smartphone shipments reached 43.3 million units (+0.5% YoY), maintaining a global market share of 13.6%. Gross margin decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 11.1% amid rising storage costs [2]. - IoT business revenue grew by 5.6% YoY to RMB 27.6 billion, with gross margin improving by 1.4 percentage points to 23.9% [2]. - Internet business revenue increased by 10.8% YoY to RMB 9.4 billion, maintaining a high gross margin of 76.9% [2]. Automotive Business - The automotive segment began to turn profitable in Q3 2025, with deliveries reaching a record high of 109,000 units. Revenue increased by 37% quarter-on-quarter to RMB 25.9 billion, with a gross margin of 25.5%, up 8.4 percentage points YoY [2]. - The report maintains a 2026 automotive shipment forecast of 700,000 units, with expectations for continued profitability and growth driven by the company's high-end strategy and capacity ramp-up [2][3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report revises revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 down by 0.3%/2.3%/1.9% and non-GAAP net profit forecasts down by 1.6%/7.6%/4.3% to RMB 43.4 billion, RMB 48.2 billion, and RMB 62.4 billion respectively [3][9]. - Using a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation method, the target price is set at HKD 53.8, corresponding to a 27x PE for 2026 [3][13].

证券研究报告 中国宏桥 (1378 HK) 港股通 看好公司高盈利与高分红持续 盈利预测与估值 | 华泰研究 | | | 动态点评 | 投资评级(维持): | 买入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 11 月 | 19 日│中国香港 | 基本金属及加工 | 目标价(港币): | 35.22 | 根据 11 月 18 日公告，公司计划以先旧后新方式配售最多 4 亿股股份，每 股配售价 29.2 港元，较前一交易日收市价折让约 9.6%，募资最多 116.8 亿 港元。配售股份占现有已发行股本约 4.2%，占扩大后股本约 4.03%。我们 认为，此次配售有利于公司优化资本结构，为国内、海外项目发展优化提供 良好基础。公司作为铝全球龙头，铝价偏强预期下，我们继续看好公司 26-27 年业绩稳定表现，同时资本结构持续优化，或为公司延续高分红政策提供必 要条件，维持买入评级。 配售资金将用于优化资本结构以及推进国内、海外项目的发展 根据本次公司公告，配售将主要用于发展国内、海外项目，并进一步优化公 司债务结构。截至 25 年年中，公司拥有国内 646 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of HKD 89.40 [1][5] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of RMB 19.45 billion for Q3 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 97.3% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 36.7% [1] - The company achieved a net profit of RMB 150 million in Q3 2025, continuing its trend of profitability [1] - The company is expected to experience a strong new car cycle from 2025 to 2026, with anticipated revenue growth driven by strategic partnerships and overseas expansion [1][4] Summary by Sections Quarterly Performance - In Q3 2025, the company sold 174,000 vehicles, marking a historical high with a month-over-month increase in sales [2] - The sales structure improved, with the B/C platform accounting for 56% and 35% of sales, respectively, while the low-priced T03 model's share decreased to 9% [2] - The gross margin for Q3 was 14.50%, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 6.40 percentage points, attributed to scale effects and cost management [3] Growth Prospects - The company is set to launch multiple new models in 2026, supporting a sales target of one million units [4] - The overseas market is expanding rapidly, with 38,000 units exported from January to September 2025 and a significant increase in overseas orders [4] - Strategic collaborations are expected to contribute to revenue growth, including partnerships with Stellantis and FAW [4] Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve sales of 640,000, 1,030,000, and 1,416,000 vehicles from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding revenues of RMB 74.5 billion, RMB 128.7 billion, and RMB 170.7 billion [5] - The net profit is expected to grow significantly, reaching RMB 11.3 million, RMB 52.4 million, and RMB 82.5 million over the same period [5] - The target price reflects a 20% premium based on the anticipated strong new car cycle and overseas production localization [5]

2025 年 11 月 19 日 招银国际环球市场 | 睿智投资 | 公司更新 固生堂 (2273 HK) 固生堂 (2273 HK) - 开启海外规模化扩张，26 年业绩加速增长 固生堂在近期完成了对新加坡大中堂 100%股权的收购，获得 14 家中医门诊部， 标志着公司进入规模化海外扩张之路。公司计划进一步增加新加坡门店数量，同 时计划进入香港和马来西亚等市场。我们预计 26 年海外市场收入可达 2-3 亿元， 将有效支撑公司整体业绩增长。同时，国内目前政策环境趋稳，预计将更加利好 龙头公司的发展。固生堂在年内的大规模回购和分红凸显管理层对业务发展的信 心。我们认为固生堂将在 26 年重回快速增长轨道，夯实中医服务的龙头地位。 | 财务资料 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | (截至 12 月 31 日) | FY23A | FY24A | FY25E | FY26E | FY27E | | 销售收入 (百万人民币) | 2,323 | 3,022 | 3,363 | 4,099 | 5,081 | | 同比增长 (%) | 43.0 | ...

[Table_scodeMsg1] 港股研究丨公司深度丨中国水务（00855.HK） [Table_Title] 中国水务深度：供水和管道直饮水龙头，自由现 金流拐点已现 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 公司供水行业龙头企业，供水主业持续稳健发展, 管道直饮水具备先发优势。截至 FY2025，公 司城市供水业务服务人口超 3000 万人，管道直饮水业务服务人口约 1200 万。公司运营业绩稳 健，接驳和建造业务下行，后续盈利稳定性有望增强。公司自由现金流拐点已现，看好未来分 红提升潜力。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 徐科 贾少波 李博文 SAC：S0490517090001 SAC：S0490520070003 SAC：S0490524080004 SFC：BUV415 盛意 SAC：S0490525070006 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 21 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 [Table_scodeMsg2] 中国水务（00855.HK） cjzqdt ...