Investment Rating - The investment rating for ZTO Express is "Outperform the Market" [6] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that ZTO Express has a significant competitive advantage, primarily due to its leading market share, superior network management capabilities, brand premium, stronger stability among franchisees, and robust financial strength [3][14] - In the short to medium term, ZTO is expected to maintain its "quantity and quality" strategy, which, along with price increases and reduced low-cost packages, will optimize the demand structure in the express delivery industry, leading to a continuous increase in market share [3] - In the long term, as the competitive landscape stabilizes, ZTO is likely to develop a diversified service system, enhancing its profitability [3] Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Development Review - The express delivery demand in China has transitioned from rapid growth to steady growth, with the volume expected to increase from 2.34 billion pieces in 2010 to 199 billion pieces by 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 34.5% [1][34] - The competitive landscape has returned to rationality, with price competition being controlled within reasonable limits due to policies aimed at high-quality development [1][52] Company Development Review - ZTO Express has distinguished itself in the competitive landscape through innovative models and strategic foresight, becoming the first private express company to open inter-provincial network buses in 2005 and implementing a paid delivery model in 2007 [2] - The company has consistently led in investments in resources such as trunk vehicles and automation equipment, establishing a virtuous cycle of scale, cost, profit, and quality [2] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The report projects ZTO Express's net profit for 2025-2027 to be 9.48 billion, 10.59 billion, and 11.78 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 7.5%, 11.7%, and 11.2% respectively [3][5] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 12X and 11X for 2026 and 2027, indicating that the stock is still at a low valuation level [3][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The demand for trendy toys is not a false need; entertainment is a necessity. The "Kidult" trend, driven by demographic changes, media evolution, and consumer psychology, is a long-term trend in the toy industry, exemplified by the increasing market share of companies targeting adult consumers [1][14] - The global entertainment and media industry is projected to reach approximately $3 trillion by 2024, indicating a growing market for diversified entertainment offerings [1][35] Supply-Side Growth Potential - Store Expansion: The company has significant room for growth in retail locations, with a projected increase in global retail stores from 571 in 2025, with a substantial portion located in China [2][58] - Increased Store Traffic: Domestic single-store membership is expected to rise from 145,000 to nearly 200,000, with the opening of the first U.S. store in September 2023 [2] - Higher Member Spending: The maturity of IPs is expected to drive up the average spending per member, as seen with the SKULLPANDA IP, where the cost to purchase all products increased significantly from 5,922 RMB in 2021 to 47,430 RMB in 2025 [2] Demand-Side Competitive Barriers - Artist Talent Barrier: The company has established partnerships with mature toy artists in Hong Kong, creating a long-term competitive advantage [3] - Marketing Resource Barrier: The company's business model relies on top-tier brand collaborations and celebrity endorsements, which are core competitive barriers [3] - User Data Asset Barrier: The company has strong control over user data and market feedback due to its direct sales channels, enhancing operational efficiency [3] Valuation Safety Margin - The company's valuation is expected to be significantly above 10X PE, given its growth stage and the rising cultural influence of China on the global stage [3] Profit Forecast, Valuation, and Rating - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 36.96 billion, 55.10 billion, and 67.74 billion RMB, with adjusted net profits of 12.38 billion, 17.35 billion, and 22.66 billion RMB, reflecting growth rates of 295.98%, 40.21%, and 30.59% respectively [4][7] - The target price is set at 359.72 HKD, based on a 25X PE for 2026 [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Ping An Insurance, with a target price raised to HKD 90 based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation [1][4]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the fourth quarter earnings may see relief amid growth stock corrections, with expectations of a 12% year-on-year increase in group OPAT for 2025, reaching RMB 136 billion, and a 5.1% increase in net profit to RMB 133 billion [1][3]. - The insurance company is projected to achieve double-digit growth in NBV (New Business Value) in 2026, driven by strong first-year premium growth and stable profit margins [2][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For FY25, the net profit is expected to be RMB 162.5 billion, with EPS projected at RMB 7.52, reflecting a 5.1% year-on-year increase [5][13]. - The report provides a detailed financial summary, indicating a steady increase in net profit and EPS over the forecast period, with net profit reaching RMB 175.7 billion by FY27 [5][15]. Valuation Metrics - The target price of HKD 90 implies a valuation of 0.9 times the FY26E price-to-earnings ratio and 1.24 times the price-to-book ratio [4][14]. - The report employs a comprehensive valuation method, indicating a fair value for various segments, including life insurance and property & casualty insurance, contributing to the overall target price [4][14]. Business Growth Drivers - The report notes that the bank's insurance channel is expected to benefit from a shift in household deposits, with a projected 18% growth in NBV for FY26 [2][4]. - The strong performance in the insurance sector is supported by robust underwriting profits and improved investment service results, particularly in the context of a recovering capital market [1][3].

股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.01.23 [Table_Industry] 运输 | 风险提示。经济波动，地缘局势，制裁执行力度变化，安全事故等。 | | --- | | 财务摘要(百万人民币) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入 | 22,733 | 23,244 | 30,650 | 40,995 | 43,693 | | (+/-)% | 21.8% | 2.2% | 31.9% | 33.8% | 6.6% | | 毛利润 | 3,381 | 4,037 | 4,516 | 6,619 | 7,002 | | 净利润 | 132.1% | 19.4% | 11.9% | 46.6% | 5.8% | | (+/-)% | 0.62 | 0.74 | 0.83 | 1.21 | 1.28 | | PE | 9.6% | 11.3% | 9.9% | 13.5% | 13.3% | | PB | 23.08 | 19.33 | 17.28 | 11. ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [2][5]. Core Insights - The company has established a high self-sufficiency and synergistic integrated ecosystem in the electrolytic aluminum industry, focusing on green aluminum transformation and global market expansion, which enhances its risk resilience and performance stability [5]. - The company is positioned as the 12th largest electrolytic aluminum producer in China, with a production capacity of 788,100 tons per year, and is strategically located in Inner Mongolia, benefiting from abundant coal resources [4][13][49]. - The global and domestic demand for electrolytic aluminum is expected to grow, driven by sectors such as new energy vehicles and high-end manufacturing, with a projected increase in global demand from 74 million tons in 2025 to 77 million tons in 2028 [4][36]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company was founded in 2012 in Hohhot, Inner Mongolia, focusing on the production of electrolytic aluminum and alumina, gradually building an integrated industrial layout [13]. - The company has seen rapid revenue growth, with revenues of 13.49 billion, 13.81 billion, and 15.16 billion RMB from 2022 to 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 6% [19]. Electrolytic Aluminum Business - The domestic supply of electrolytic aluminum is constrained by a production cap of approximately 45 million tons per year, leading to a tight supply-demand balance [36]. - The company’s electrolytic aluminum production capacity is 788,100 tons per year, with a high capacity utilization rate of over 95% [49][58]. - The average selling price of electrolytic aluminum has fluctuated, with prices of 17,572, 16,174, and 17,120 RMB per ton from 2022 to 2024, while production costs have decreased due to falling raw material prices [60][66]. Alumina Business - The company has a current alumina production capacity of 1.2 million tons in Shandong, with plans to enhance its supply capabilities through the construction of a 1.5 million ton per year hydroxide aluminum production facility [76][81]. - The global alumina demand is projected to grow from 142 million tons in 2025 to 149 million tons in 2028, with China being the largest consumer [71]. Global Expansion and Green Transformation - The company is initiating a global strategy by planning to invest in a 500,000 ton per year electrolytic aluminum project in Saudi Arabia, targeting markets in the Middle East, North Africa, and Europe [4][5]. - The company is also constructing a large-scale wind and solar power station in Inner Mongolia to increase its green energy ratio, which is expected to significantly reduce carbon emissions associated with aluminum production [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for TCL Electronics is "Buy" [5]. Core Insights - The company has exceeded its equity incentive targets for 2025, with a strategic cooperation memorandum signed with Sony, accelerating its high-end and global strategies [2]. - The forecasted adjusted net profit for 2025 is between HKD 23.3 billion and HKD 25.7 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 45% to 60% [9]. - The company maintains a leading position in the television market, with a projected global shipment of 30.41 million units in 2025, a 5.4% increase year-on-year [9]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast (in thousand HKD)**: - 2023A: 78,986 - 2024A: 99,322 (+26%) - 2025E: 115,807 (+17%) - 2026E: 131,717 (+14%) - 2027E: 147,177 (+12%) [4] - **Net Profit Forecast (in million HKD)**: - 2023A: 744 - 2024A: 1,759 (+137%) - 2025E: 2,448 (+39%) - 2026E: 2,849 (+16%) - 2027E: 3,279 (+15%) [4] - **Valuation Ratios**: - PE: 2025E at 12.59, 2026E at 10.82, 2027E at 9.40 [4]. - PB: 2025E at 1.65, 2026E at 1.50, 2027E at 1.36 [4]. Strategic Developments - TCL Electronics has signed a strategic cooperation memorandum with Sony to establish a joint venture for home entertainment business, with TCL holding 51% and Sony 49% [9]. - The new company will operate under the "Sony" and "BRAVIA" brands, expected to start operations by April 2027 [9].

华福证券 成品家居 公 司 研 究 敏华控股（01999.HK） 关注内外销积极的边际变化 投资要点： 究 报 风险提示 告 国内外宏观环境风险，市场竞争加剧风险，外贸政策变化风险 | 财务数据和估值 | 2024A | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E 2028E | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主营收入（百万港 | 18,411 | 16,903 | 16,392 | 16,757 | 17,424 | | 元） | | | | | | | 增长率 | 6% | -8% | -3% | 2% | 4% | | 归母净利润（百万港 | 2,302 | 2,063 | 2,067 | 2,120 | 2,208 | | 元） | | | | | | | 增长率 | 20% | -10% | 0% | 3% | 4% | | EPS（港元/股） | 0.59 | 0.53 | 0.53 | 0.55 | 0.57 | | 市盈率（P/E） | 7.8 | 8.7 | 8.7 | 8.5 | 8.2 | | 市净率（P/B） | 1.5 | 1.4 ...

| 研究報告 2026 年 01 月 23 日 上海寶濟藥業 | 02659.HK 步入商業化初期的生物技術公司 評級 買入 目標價 HK$ 111.30 上海寶濟藥業(02659.HK)為一家生物技術公司，利用合成生物技術開發及提供重組 生物藥物，專注於攻克治療選擇有限且製造工藝複雜的病症。集團現時專注於開發 四個戰略治療領域的候選藥物，包括 i) 大容量皮下給藥，ii) 抗體介導的自身免疫 性疾病，iii) 輔助生殖藥物，及 iv) 其他重組生物製品。集團已建立一條由一款已獲 批藥物、七款處於臨床階段的候選藥物及四項臨床前資產組成的產品管線。 產品於中國具有先發優勢: 產品已被認證有效並成功商業化: 重組人透明質酸酶及長效 FSH產品於國外部份地 區已經被使用及成功商業化，反映兩款藥物在市場上存在需求，同時能夠為藥企及 股東帶來經濟價值。根據國外的經驗，上海寶濟藥業(02659.HK)兩款核心產品 KJ017 及 SJ02 能夠成功商業化並取得利潤的確定性較創新藥物為高，特別是集團具有先 發優勢，且能夠基於國外企業的經驗上建立獨特的商業合作模式。 明確的商業化模式與時間表: 就即將及正在商業化的產品而言， ...

三季度经营平稳，机器人和液冷迎新增长 德昌电机控股(0179) | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘一鸣(分析师) | 021-23154145 | liuyiming@gtht.com | S0880525040050 | | 石佳艺(分析师) | 021-38676666 | shijiayi@gtht.com | S0880525070001 | | 张予名(研究助理) | 021-23154145 | zhangyuming@gtht.com | S0880125042241 | 投资要点： 股 票 研 究 本报告导读： 德昌电机 2025-2026 财年前三季度经营平稳，后续机器人和液冷产业发展将为公司 带来全新发展动力，维持"增持"评级。 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.01.23 [Table_Industry] 运输设备业 | | | [当前价格 Table_CurPrice] (港元)： 30.66 | 财务摘要(百万美元) | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | ...

Investment Rating - The report does not specify a clear investment rating for the company [6] Core Insights - The company has demonstrated strong operational capabilities in IP management, with recent product innovations leading to increased sales potential for Q1 [1][2] - Recent stock buybacks, totaling over 300 million HKD, reflect the company's confidence in its long-term growth prospects and indicate that the stock price is at a relatively low level [1][3] - The company has successfully launched new product lines that have gained significant market traction, suggesting a robust ability to diversify its IP portfolio [2] Summary by Sections Product Performance - The Pucky Knock Knock series blind boxes have gained popularity, showcasing the company's innovative approach to IP [2] - The company has also launched successful series for the New Year and Valentine's Day, indicating strong consumer demand [2] Stock Buyback Activity - The company repurchased 1.4 million shares at an average price of 161 HKD and 500,000 shares at 173 HKD, demonstrating confidence in its stock valuation [3] - The stock buybacks are seen as a strategic move to bolster market confidence and counteract short-selling pressures [3] Market Outlook - The company has a strong presence in overseas markets, with approximately 200 stores globally, and continues to expand its footprint [4] - Future revenue projections indicate significant growth, with expected revenues of 373.98 billion RMB in 2025, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 186.8% [12] - The company's P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 20.70, 15.25, and 12.26 respectively, suggesting that the current valuation is relatively low for a high-growth company [4][12]