证券研究报告 连连数字 (2598 HK) 快速增长的独立跨境支付服务商 2026 年 1 月 16 日│中国香港 其他多元金融 | 华泰研究 | | 首次覆盖 | 投资评级(首评): | 买入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026 年 | 1 月 16 日│中国香港 | 其他多元金融 | 目标价(港币): | 10.20 | | | | SAC No. S0570521010001 SFC No. AWF297 lijian@htsc.com +(852) 3658 6112 陈宇轩* 研究员 SAC No. S0570524070010 chenyuxuan020827@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 基本数据 | 收盘价 (港币 截至 1 月 15 日) | 6.99 | | --- | --- | | 市值 (港币百万) | 7,845 | | 6 个月平均日成交额 (港币百万) | 58.65 | | 52 周价格范围 (港币) | 5.50-18.00 | 股价走势图 (39) (9) 22 53 83 Jan-25 May-25 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 4.05 [7][5]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from a recovery in trade and price elasticity, with a significant increase in uranium prices anticipated due to global nuclear energy revival [1]. - The overall production and operational performance for 2025 is in line with expectations, with a notable recovery in uranium trade prices in the second half of 2025 [1][3]. - The company is one of the most elastic uranium producers in terms of performance relative to spot prices, with 70% of its sales framework agreements tied to spot pricing mechanisms from 2026 to 2028 [1]. Summary by Sections Production and Sales Outlook - The company's total uranium production for 2025 is projected at 2,699.0 tons, a slight decrease of 2% year-on-year. The Ortalyk mine shows a significant increase of 68%, while the Semizbay-U mine experiences an 18% decline [2]. - Looking ahead, the sales framework agreements for 2026 and 2027 indicate production increases to approximately 2,935 tons and 3,300 tons, respectively, with Ortalyk mine expected to grow by 15% and 18% [2]. Trade and Pricing - The uranium trade delivery prices have shown a clear recovery, with prices increasing from $56.44/lbs in Q1 to $79.90/lbs in Q4 of 2025. The average receiving price for the year was $73.95/lbs, with a similar average for deliveries [3]. - The report anticipates that the recovery in trade prices will lead to a restoration of profits in the international trade business for the entire year [3]. Strategic Developments - The inclusion of uranium in the U.S. Section 232 critical minerals list is expected to accelerate the replenishment cycle, tightening supply and potentially driving prices higher [4]. - The U.S. government's actions to ensure sufficient uranium supply are likely to bolster long-term confidence in nuclear power development [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - Due to adjustments in production plans, the company's net profit for 2025 has been revised down by 34% to HKD 231 million. However, profit forecasts for 2026 and 2027 have been adjusted upwards to HKD 1.039 billion and HKD 1.363 billion, respectively [5]. - The report assigns a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 29.6x for 2026, leading to a target price increase from HKD 3.01 to HKD 4.05 [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Li Ning with a target price of 24 HKD, based on a 20x PE for 2026 [1][3][7]. Core Insights - Li Ning's overall platform revenue (excluding Li Ning YOUNG) experienced a low single-digit decline in Q4 2025, with offline channels seeing a mid-single-digit decline while e-commerce growth remained flat [2][3]. - The retail performance outperformed wholesale due to increased clearance and promotional efforts in the second half of the year, with notable growth in specific e-commerce channels like Douyin and JD [2]. - The introduction of new store formats, particularly the "Dragon Store," has been well-received, targeting consumers who value quality and brand prestige, indicating potential for future growth [3]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 28.941 billion RMB, 30.559 billion RMB, and 31.889 billion RMB, respectively, with expected EPS of 1.04, 1.08, and 1.17 RMB [5][11]. - The company anticipates a recovery in profitability with a projected net profit of 2.675 billion RMB in 2025, increasing to 2.787 billion RMB in 2026 and 3.006 billion RMB in 2027 [5][11]. - The gross margin is expected to remain stable around 49.4% for the coming years, reflecting effective cost management [5][12].

各地区同店增长环比进一步提速 | 华泰研究 | | | 公告点评 | 投资评级(维持): | 买入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026 年 | 1 月 | 16 日│中国香港 | 可选消费 | 目标价(港币): | 35.10 | 六福集团公布 3QFY26（25 年 10-12 月）经营数据：集团零售值同比+26% （增速环比+8pct），其中中国内地同比+26%（增速环比+6pct），中国港 澳及海外同比+20%（增速环比+7pct）。季内集团各市场销售表现延续上半 财年势头，在相对较高基数下，增速环比继续实现增长，表现亮眼。在金价 持续创新高的背景下，集团有效的产品差异化和销售策略带动定价首饰收入 快速增长。2026 年 1 月 1 日至 7 日，公司整体同店销售优于第三季度。我 们看好产品及渠道结构优化带动六福集团业绩持续改善，维持"买入"评级。 高基数下 3QFY26 延续向上势头，港澳及海外市场同店增长靓丽 从同店销售（SSSG）情况来看，3QFY26 集团各地区销售表现环比进一步 向好。1）分区域看，港澳及海外同店销售同比+16%（增速环 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company reported a narrowing decline in Q4 revenue, with expectations for profit margins in 2025 to exceed forecasts [1] - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027, increasing them to 2.68 billion, 2.86 billion, and 3.05 billion RMB respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of 17, 16, and 15 [1] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 27.6 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 6.96% - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 is expected to be 3.19 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 21.58% - The latest diluted EPS for 2023 is estimated at 1.23 RMB, with a P/E ratio of 14.43 [1][8] Operational Insights - In Q4, the company's overall retail revenue (excluding young segment) saw a low single-digit year-on-year decline, with offline and e-commerce channels experiencing middle single-digit and flat year-on-year changes respectively [1] - The company opened its first outdoor store and "Dragon Store" in November and December 2025, respectively, targeting new customer segments [1] - The company aims to improve profitability by closing loss-making stores and enhancing cost efficiency [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, with a target price of 6.83 HKD, reflecting a 9% downside based on a 2025 PE of 10X [8][11]. Core Insights - The company focuses on mass professional sports, leading industry turnover growth, and is committed to technological innovation and product upgrades, with rapid expansion of super stores [8][10]. - The company achieved steady turnover growth in Q4 2025, with main brand offline, online, and children's turnover growing by 10%, high double digits, and 10% year-on-year respectively [9][10]. - The company exceeded its annual opening target for super stores, with 126 stores opened by the end of 2025, surpassing the initial target of 100 stores [10][11]. - The company is increasing its focus on mental products and professional events, with successful product launches and event sponsorships planned for 2026 [11]. Financial Summary - Projected total revenue for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E is 10,074 million, 11,147 million, 12,355 million, and 13,732 million RMB respectively, reflecting growth rates of 19.6%, 10.7%, 10.8%, and 11.1% [3]. - Projected net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 1,271 million, 1,403 million, and 1,560 million RMB, with corresponding PE ratios of 8.5X, 7.7X, and 6.9X [3][8]. - The company’s gross profit is expected to increase from 4,183 million RMB in 2024A to 5,633 million RMB in 2027E, maintaining a gross margin around 40% [3].

中集安瑞科（3899 HK） | 2026 年 1 月 16 日 中集安瑞科（3899 HK） 创新业务突破支持估值升级 提升目标价，重申"增持" 评级 近期公司多项创新业务出现突破，例如(一)广东湛江绿色甲醇项目一期投产；(二)2025 年航天 储存装备收入及在手订单合共超一亿元人民币；(三)核聚变能投资。虽然相关业务的短期盈利 贡献料不大，但是可助力公司中长期增长，并支持较高估值。我们暂时维持 FY25-27 股东净利 润预测，但是不排除待未来业绩/相关消息公布后调升的可能性。比较参与创新业务的能源设 备同业估值后(见图表三)，我们将公司目标价由 8.60 港元提高至 12.34 港元，对应 16.5 倍 FY26 市盈率和 13.5%上升空间。我们重申"增持"评级。 绿色甲醇项目投产 2025 年 12 月 16 日，广东湛江绿色甲醇项目一期(年产能 5 万吨)正式投产(见图表 1)。此项目 是公司首个商业化绿色甲醇项目，也是中国首个量产化生物甲醇项目。项目采用周边低成本 的农林废弃物作为原材料，透过自主设计、制造与集成的主要设备，包括气化炉、净化装 置、脱碳装置等，所产出的甲醇可用作航运燃料及医药原料 ...

[Table_ReportType] 公司点评报告 [李Ta宁bl(e2_3St3o1c.kHAKn)dRank] | | | 执业编号：S1500524120004 邮箱：jiangwenqiang@cindasc.com 刘田田 纺织服饰行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525120001 邮箱：liutiantian@cindasc.com CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦B 座 邮编：100031 证券研究报告 公司研究 [Table_Title] Q4 流水微降库存健康，长期看奥运赞助夯实 信心 [Table_ReportDate] 2026 年 1 月 16 日 投资评级 无评级 上次评级 无评级 [姜Ta文b镪le_新Au消th费o行r]业首席分析师 [T事ab件le：_S李um宁ma发ry布]二零二五年第四季度最新运营情况公告。2025 年第四季度 李宁牌全渠道流水录得低单位数下降。分渠道看：线下整体中单位数下滑（批 发中单位数降，直营低单位数降）；电商渠道流水大致持平。直营表现略优 于批发，主要得益于奥莱等特价渠道清货力度大。店铺方面 ...

证券研究报告 [Table_Author] 姜文镪 新消费行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524120004 邮 箱： jiangwenqiang@cindasc.com 骆峥 新消费行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525020001 邮 箱： luozheng1@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦B 座 邮编：100031 公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 公司点评报告 [Table_StockAndRank] 六福集团(0590.HK) 投资评级 上次评级 [Table_Title] 六福集团：10-12 月同店增速环比加快，产品 结构持续优化 [Table_ReportDate] 2026 年 01 月 16 日 [Table_S 事件：六福集团发布 ummary] FY2026 第三季度零售销售表现公告。公司 2026 财年 第三季度（25 年 10-12 月）整体实现零售值同比+26%，其中内地同比+26%， 内地以外市场同比+20%，环比 7-9 月增速加快，趋势良好。 同店销 ...

证券研究报告 阿里巴巴-W (9988 HK/BABA US) 港股通 千问焕新，AI 赋能大消费的协同初现 华泰研究 更新报告 2026 年 1 月 16 日│中国香港/美国 互联网 1 月 15 日，阿里巴巴举办"有问必答"千问新版本发布会，宣布千问 APP 全面接入淘宝、支付宝、淘宝闪购、飞猪和高德等阿里业务生态，实现点外 卖、买东西和订机票等 AI 购物功能，并已面向所有用户开放测试，旨在引 领 AI 行业从"聊天对话"迈入"办事时代"，覆盖数字世界与物理世界的 生活场景。我们认为阿里巴巴在中国互联网中具有 AI+大消费全场景覆盖的 稀缺性，通过生态聚合和业务打通，有望构建一站式解决用户需求的差异化 用户心智。我们看好阿里巴巴依托其自身领先的 AI 和云计算基础设施规模 和技术实力，充分赋能其丰富的大消费场景布局。在坚定投入下有望率先捕 捉 AI 时代流量入口重新分配带来的格局重塑与商业化变现机会。维持"买 入"评级。 千问用户量快速破圈，深挖用户需求成为长期粘性关键 会上管理层宣布：千问 APP 上线近两月，C 端月活用户数已突破 1 亿，远 超管理层预期。伴随用户规模的有效破圈，商业化机遇应运而生 ...