证券研究报告·公司点评报告·美容护理 华熙生物（688363） 2025 年三季报点评：25Q3 扣非归母净利同 比+10.5%，经营调改成效显现 增持（下调） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 6,076 | 5,371 | 4,983 | 5,328 | 5,939 | | 同比（%） | (4.45) | (11.61) | (7.22) | 6.93 | 11.46 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 592.56 | 174.27 | 375.79 | 519.39 | 624.22 | | 同比（%） | (38.97) | (70.59) | 115.64 | 38.21 | 20.18 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 1.23 | 0.36 | 0.78 | 1.08 | 1.30 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 43.89 | 149.23 | 69.20 | 50.07 | 41. ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's Q3 2025 performance was below expectations due to exchange rate impacts, but it is expected to maintain high growth in 2026 [8] - The company achieved a revenue of 3.028 billion yuan from January to Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 25.80%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 150 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.32% [8] - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 30.47%, down 4.88 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to an increase in shipments to the Australian market, which has a lower gross margin [8] - The report estimates that the company's net profit for 2025-2027 will be 220 million, 410 million, and 630 million yuan respectively, reflecting a growth of 10%, 82%, and 55% [8] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 4.473 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 3.01% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 is estimated at 1.065 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 6.12% [1] - The latest diluted EPS for 2023 is 6.65 yuan, with a P/E ratio of 11.19 [1] - The company’s total assets are projected to reach 7.784 billion yuan by 2025, with total liabilities of 3.220 billion yuan [9] - The operating cash flow for 2024 is expected to be 754 million yuan, increasing to 1.118 billion yuan in 2025 [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Railway (601390.SH) is "Buy-A" with a 12-month target price of 7.14 CNY, compared to the current stock price of 5.62 CNY [4]. Core Views - The report highlights that the company's revenue has decreased due to a decline in domestic infrastructure demand, but the revenue decline has been narrowing each quarter [2]. - The management has effectively controlled operating expenses, leading to a significant improvement in operating cash flow in Q3 [3]. - The company has seen a substantial increase in new contracts signed overseas, particularly in the resource sector, which is expected to lead to a revaluation of its mineral resources [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 773.814 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 5.46%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 17.490 billion CNY, down 14.97% [1]. - For Q3 2025, the company reported a revenue of 262.720 billion CNY, a year-on-year decline of 4.53%, and a net profit of 5.664 billion CNY, down 9.98% [1]. Revenue Breakdown - The revenue decline is primarily attributed to a slowdown in domestic infrastructure and housing demand, with the infrastructure construction segment seeing a revenue drop of 7.52% year-on-year [2]. - Other segments, including equipment manufacturing and real estate development, showed positive growth, with revenues increasing by 8.71%, 8.75%, and 11.32% respectively [2]. Profitability and Cash Flow - The overall gross margin for the first three quarters was 8.84%, a slight decrease of 0.11 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 2.48%, down 0.26 percentage points [3]. - The company reported an operating cash flow of -72.883 billion CNY for the first three quarters, but Q3 saw a significant improvement with a cash inflow of 6.748 billion CNY, compared to a cash outflow of 1.925 billion CNY in Q3 2024 [3]. Contracting and Resource Development - The company signed new contracts worth 1,584.92 billion CNY in the first three quarters, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, with overseas contracts increasing by 35.2% [4]. - The resource segment saw a remarkable growth in new contracts, doubling year-on-year to 1,512.0 billion CNY, with a gross margin exceeding 50% [4]. Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 1.11 trillion CNY, 1.12 trillion CNY, and 1.14 trillion CNY, with corresponding net profits of 24.86 billion CNY, 25.16 billion CNY, and 25.77 billion CNY [9]. - The dynamic PE ratios for these years are projected to be 5.6, 5.5, and 5.4 times respectively [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" rating for the company with a 6-month target price of 18.45 CNY per share [4][8]. Core Views - The company reported a year-on-year improvement in Q3 2025 performance, with revenue of 1.13 billion CNY, up 0.41% year-on-year and 7.64% quarter-on-quarter, driven by increased shipments from major clients like Tesla, Li Auto, and BYD [2][3]. - The company's net profit for Q3 2025 reached 99 million CNY, a significant increase of 70.43% year-on-year, although it decreased by 5.5% quarter-on-quarter [2][3]. - The company is accelerating its transition towards humanoid robotics and expanding its global footprint, with new production capacities in Mexico and Thailand expected to enhance its support for global clients in new business areas [3][4]. Revenue Summary - Q3 2025 revenue was 1.13 billion CNY, with a year-on-year increase of 0.41% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7.64% [2]. - Major clients contributing to revenue growth include Tesla, which saw a quarter-on-quarter sales increase of 26% in Q3 2025, and Li Auto, which increased its sales by 1.4 thousand units [2]. Profitability Summary - The company's net profit for Q3 2025 was 99 million CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 70.43% but a quarter-on-quarter decline of 5.5% [2]. - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 21.45%, up 3.23% year-on-year but down 1.3 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, attributed to new projects ramping up and fluctuations in aluminum prices [2][3]. Future Outlook - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 440 million CNY, 600 million CNY, and 740 million CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 37, 27, and 22 times [4][6]. - The report anticipates a continued focus on expanding into humanoid robotics and energy storage, with significant investments in production capabilities in Mexico and Thailand [3][4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The performance of "Supernatural Action Group" has driven strong Q3 results, indicating potential for sustained growth in the future [6][7] - The company has shown significant revenue growth, with Q3 revenue reaching 1.706 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 115.63% [8] - The increase in contract liabilities suggests strong future profit potential, primarily driven by the performance of "Supernatural Action Group" [6][7] Financial Performance Summary - For the period from Q1 to Q3 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of 3.368 billion yuan, representing a year-over-year growth of 51.84% [8] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for the same period was 1.417 billion yuan, with a year-over-year increase of 32.31% [8] - The company forecasts revenues of 5.233 billion yuan, 8.485 billion yuan, and 9.007 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 2.224 billion yuan, 4.240 billion yuan, and 4.717 billion yuan [10][11] Market Performance - The company's stock has shown a 12-month performance increase of 185.3%, significantly outperforming the CSI 300 index [4] - As of October 31, 2025, the current stock price is 35.09 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 67.89 billion yuan [4] Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the continued success of "Supernatural Action Group" and the launch of new products, which are anticipated to enhance operational profits significantly [7][10] - The projected growth rates for revenue and net profit indicate a robust financial outlook, with expected revenue growth rates of 79% in 2025 and 62% in 2026 [10][11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Huabei Mining (600985.SH) is maintained at "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company's performance is under pressure due to a decline in both coal volume and price, leading to a significant drop in revenue and profit [4][5] - The report highlights the importance of focusing on the growth potential of coal mines despite current challenges [4] - Future growth is anticipated as ongoing projects are steadily advancing, with expectations for production capacity to be released in the coming years [7] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 319.25 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 43.78% - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 10.70 billion yuan, down 74.14% year-on-year, while the net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 10.01 billion yuan, a decline of 75.48% [4] - In Q3 alone, total revenue was 112.43 billion yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.50%, but net profit dropped to 0.39 billion yuan, a decrease of 88.61% quarter-on-quarter [4] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted, with expected net profits of 24.11 billion yuan, 30.7 billion yuan, and 38.4 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a year-on-year change of -50.3%, +27.4%, and +24.8% [4] - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.90 yuan, 1.14 yuan, and 1.42 yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, corresponding to price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 14.8, 11.6, and 9.3 times [4][8] Business Segment Analysis - The coal business has been significantly impacted by a decrease in both production and prices, leading to reduced sales revenue [5] - The coal chemical and trading segments also contributed to the decline in performance, with lower coke prices and a contraction in trading activities [6] Project Development and Capacity Expansion - The company is actively accelerating project construction, with the Tohutu coal mine expected to be completed by the end of 2025 and operational in 2026 [7] - Seven new mines with a total capacity of 16.4 million tons per year are set to be operational in 2025, alongside successful resource storage of 23.47 million tons [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 2.14 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, representing an 85% year-on-year increase, with a net profit of 105 million yuan, up 82% year-on-year [8] - The self-owned brand revenue in Q3 2025 grew by 345% year-on-year, contributing 4.5 billion yuan, which accounted for 55% of total revenue [8] - The report highlights the strong growth of the company's self-owned brands, particularly "Zhanjia" and "Feicui," which have shown significant market traction [8] Financial Projections - Total revenue projections for 2025 are set at 3.22 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 82.52% [1] - The net profit forecast for 2025 is 178 million yuan, reflecting a 68.62% increase compared to the previous year [1] - The report anticipates a continuous increase in earnings per share (EPS), projected to reach 0.57 yuan in 2025 [1] Revenue Breakdown - In Q3 2025, the revenue from self-owned brands was 4.5 billion yuan, with "Zhanjia" contributing 2.3 billion yuan and "Feicui" 2.03 billion yuan [8] - The report notes that the self-owned brand segment has significantly improved the company's gross margin, which reached 61% in Q3 2025, up 12 percentage points year-on-year [8] Market Position - The company is positioned as a leading digital brand management firm in China, with a focus on home cleaning and health products [8] - The successful launch of new products, such as the "Liquid Marseille Soap" by "Zhanjia," has contributed to its market leadership [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a 12-month target price of 6.37 CNY, compared to the current stock price of 5.43 CNY [5]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 1.56 trillion CNY for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 4.2%, primarily due to a contraction in domestic real estate and infrastructure demand [2][3]. - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period was 38.182 billion CNY, down 3.8% year-on-year, with a significant drop of 24.1% in Q3 alone [3]. - Despite the overall revenue decline, the company's overseas business showed robust growth, with a year-on-year increase of 8.8% in overseas revenue [2]. - The company has maintained positive growth in new contract signings, totaling 3.04 trillion CNY for the first three quarters, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.7% [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.56 trillion CNY, down 4.2% year-on-year, with Q3 revenue at 449.912 billion CNY, a decline of 6.6% year-on-year [2]. - The gross profit margin for the period was 8.72%, a slight decrease of 0.11 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin stood at 3.17%, down 0.04 percentage points [3]. - The operating cash flow improved, with a cash outflow of 69.479 billion CNY, which is 7.53 billion CNY less than the previous year [3]. Business Segments - The company’s revenue from housing construction, infrastructure, and real estate development saw year-on-year changes of -5.3%, -3.6%, and +0.6%, respectively [2]. - The company’s land reserve structure continues to optimize, with an addition of 6.95 million square meters of land in first-tier, second-tier, and provincial capital cities [4]. Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 2.18715 trillion CNY, 2.27026 trillion CNY, and 2.34972 trillion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with expected net profits of 46.53 billion CNY, 47.85 billion CNY, and 49.33 billion CNY [9][10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's sales scale in Thailand has increased, contributing to significant year-on-year growth in performance for the first three quarters of 2025 [6] - The company achieved a revenue of 770 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 33.82%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 121 million yuan, up 168.01% year-on-year [4][6] - The expansion of the Thailand production base and the successful implementation of the first phase of the project have led to increased customer orders and sales [6][8] Summary by Sections Recent Performance - In Q3 2025, the company reported a revenue of 263 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.63% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7.10% [5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q3 was 11 million yuan, reflecting an 11.93% year-on-year increase but a 60.66% decrease quarter-on-quarter [5] Financial Highlights - The gross margin for the first three quarters was 28.80%, up 0.99 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 15.60%, an increase of 7.83 percentage points year-on-year [4] - The company reported a significant increase in investment income, reaching 46 million yuan, up 3430% year-on-year, primarily due to the disposal of a subsidiary [6] Future Outlook - The company plans to continue expanding its Thailand production base, with a new synthetic vanillin production line expected to add 4,000 tons of capacity [7] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 1.232 billion, 1.647 billion, and 1.920 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits expected to be 170 million, 278 million, and 403 million yuan [8][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating a potential upside of over 15% relative to the benchmark index [6]. Core Insights - The company has achieved significant improvement in profitability, driven by AI and hybrid cloud initiatives, with a revenue of 5.125 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.62% [1]. - The company has successfully reduced costs, leading to a substantial improvement in cash flow, with a net cash flow from operating activities of 0.13 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025 [1]. - The focus on key production lines and cloud computing has led to a strategic shift towards cloud services and product service integration, enhancing the company's competitive edge in the market [2]. - The company is actively integrating AI capabilities into its traditional business, with a strong emphasis on an "AI First" strategy, resulting in innovative products and services [3]. - The projected revenue for the company is expected to grow significantly, with estimates of 8.774 billion yuan in 2025, 10.578 billion yuan in 2026, and 12.790 billion yuan in 2027, alongside a corresponding increase in earnings per share [4][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the company reported a revenue of 2.116 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.86%, and a net profit of 0.147 billion yuan, reflecting a remarkable growth of 1097.40% [1]. - The company has effectively optimized its expense ratios, with sales, management, and R&D expense ratios decreasing compared to the previous year [1]. Strategic Focus - The company is concentrating on enhancing its core security capabilities through cloud services and product service integration, ensuring stability in its domestic market coverage [2]. - The ongoing trend of domestic industry leaders and international markets becoming key revenue sources is becoming increasingly clear [2]. AI Integration - The company is committed to an "AI First" approach, integrating AI technologies into its product offerings, which has led to significant advancements in security applications [3]. Future Projections - Revenue forecasts indicate a growth trajectory with expected revenues of 8.774 billion yuan in 2025, 10.578 billion yuan in 2026, and 12.790 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding EPS estimates of 0.74, 1.00, and 1.24 yuan [4][5].