Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" rating for Bosideng (03998.HK) [1][7] Core Insights - Bosideng has appointed renowned British fashion designer KIM JONES as the creative director for its high-end urban line AREAL, aiming to redefine the concept of business down jackets [2][4] - The AREAL series targets the high-end business fashion sector, featuring transformable layering designs and high-quality materials, with prices ranging from 2399 to 3999 yuan [4] - The company continues to focus on product innovation and optimizing store operations, with a strong emphasis on seasonal sales and rapid response to market demand [5][6] Financial Performance and Projections - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 3.93 billion, 4.38 billion, and 4.79 billion yuan for the fiscal years 2026, 2027, and 2028 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 13.2, 11.9, and 10.9 [7] - Projected revenue for the fiscal years 2024 to 2028 shows a steady increase from 23.21 billion yuan in 2024 to 34.11 billion yuan in 2028, with year-on-year growth rates of 38.4%, 11.6%, 10.1%, 9.9%, and 8.9% respectively [9][11] - The gross margin is expected to stabilize around 57.6% to 57.8% over the next five years, while the net profit margin is projected to improve slightly from 13.2% in 2024 to 14.0% in 2028 [9][11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 9.00 [6][10]. Core Insights - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders increased year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, driven by stable financial operations and a significant growth in inclusive finance business, which saw a more than 60% increase in interest-earning asset scale [1][2]. - Despite challenges in the industrial operations segment, particularly in the equipment operation sector, the company emphasizes its commitment to enhancing shareholder returns, with an expected dividend yield of 8.0% for 2025 [1][4]. Financial Business Summary - The company's interest-earning asset net amount for the first half of 2025 was CNY 266.6 billion, reflecting a 2.3% increase compared to the end of 2024 [2]. - Inclusive finance business contributed significantly to revenue growth, with a doubling of income in the first three quarters [2]. - The net interest margin improved to 4.06% in the first half of 2025, up from 3.95% in the same period last year, indicating a positive trend in financial operations [2]. Industrial Operations Summary - The equipment operation segment, primarily under Hongxin Construction, experienced a revenue decline of over 10% year-on-year in the first three quarters, attributed to a competitive domestic market [3]. - The healthcare operation segment remained stable, with a slight revenue decline but continued to maintain profitability [3]. Dividend Characteristics - The company aims to enhance shareholder returns, with a dividend per share (DPS) of HKD 0.25 for the first half of 2025, translating to a payout ratio of approximately 50% [4]. - The projected dividend yield for 2025 is around 8.0%, despite the challenges faced in the industrial operations segment [4].

上 市 公 司 非银金融 2025 年 10 月 23 日 中国船舶租赁 (03877) 公 司 研 究 / 公 司 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 | 市场数据： | 2025 年 10 月 22 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港币） | 1.92 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 9223.78 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 2.40/1.55 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 119.03 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 6,199.22 | | 汇率（港币/人民币） | 0.9130 | 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： -8% 12% 32% 52% HSCEI 中国船舶租赁 资料来源：Bloomberg 相关研究 - 证券分析师 王晨鉴 A0230525030001 wangcj@swsresearch.com 张慧 A0230524100001 zhanghui@swsresearch.com 闫海 A0230519010004 yanhai@swsresearch.com 联系人 王晨鉴 A0230525030001 wangcj@swsresearch.com 投资 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading brand in the mid-priced tea beverage market, focusing on fresh and high-quality products while expanding its store network in lower-tier cities [8][14] - The company has a robust supply chain and logistics system, which supports its operational efficiency and product freshness, contributing to its competitive advantage [8][39] - The mid-priced tea beverage market is expected to grow significantly, with the company projected to increase its market share and store count in the coming years [8][14] Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company is the largest mid-priced tea beverage brand in China, with a focus on fruit tea, milk tea, and coffee [14] - As of the first half of 2025, the company has 11,179 stores and a terminal GMV of 22.4 billion RMB [14][15] - The company employs a unique regional strategy to optimize its store distribution and supply chain efficiency [14][24] 2. Product Strategy - The company emphasizes a product logic of "fresh and high-quality," with a focus on frequent product updates and maintaining consistent quality [39] - The menu typically features around 30 SKUs, with a pricing strategy that keeps most products under 15 RMB [40][50] - The company has successfully captured consumer trends and adapted its offerings accordingly, leading to strong sales performance [49][51] 3. Market Dynamics - The domestic ready-to-drink tea market is expected to exceed 500 billion RMB during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, with a CAGR of nearly 15% [8][39] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from market consolidation opportunities within the mid-priced segment [8][39] - Consumer repurchase rates are critical for market share, and the company has demonstrated strong performance in this area due to its supply chain and operational management [8][39] 4. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve adjusted net profits of 2.19 billion, 2.50 billion, and 2.88 billion RMB for the years 2025 to 2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 44%, 14%, and 15% respectively [1][8] - The report maintains previous profit forecasts, with corresponding P/E ratios of 24, 21, and 18 times for the same period [1][8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8]. Core Insights - The retail data for the company remains stable, with the main brand's revenue showing low single-digit growth year-on-year. Discounts range from 7% to 75%, and the inventory turnover ratio is healthy at 4 to 4.5 months. The subsidiary brand, Saucony, has seen revenue growth exceeding 20% year-on-year [2][6]. - The main brand's growth is primarily driven by the running category, while Saucony is expected to return to high growth after a short-term adjustment. Offline channels are anticipated to maintain high growth, while e-commerce growth is slightly weaker due to the company's strategy of reducing low-priced products. Future growth for Saucony is expected to accelerate as the company focuses on opening stores in key urban areas and enhancing brand presence [8]. - Overall, the running trend supports steady growth for the main brand, and despite short-term adjustments for Saucony, the long-term growth potential remains strong. The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.41 billion, 1.58 billion, and 1.75 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, corresponding to price-to-earnings ratios of 10, 9, and 8 times respectively [8][10]. Summary by Sections Retail Performance - The main brand's revenue growth is low single-digit year-on-year, with a stable discount range and healthy inventory turnover [2][6]. Saucony Brand Performance - Saucony's revenue growth exceeds 20% year-on-year, with expectations for future acceleration in growth as the brand focuses on key urban markets [8]. Financial Projections - Projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.41 billion, 1.58 billion, and 1.75 billion yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 10, 9, and 8 times [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Insights - The core product sac-TMT (SKB264) has shown promising results in two pivotal Phase III clinical trials presented at the 2025 ESMO, focusing on breast cancer (BC) and non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) [1][2] - sac-TMT demonstrates significant potential as a best-in-class (BIC) therapy, particularly in the treatment of EGFR mutation NSCLC patients who have failed prior TKI therapy, showing improved overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) compared to chemotherapy [2][3] - In the HR+/HER2- BC study, sac-TMT also exhibited a notable improvement in ORR and mPFS compared to chemotherapy, with a trend towards better OS outcomes [4][5] Summary by Sections NSCLC Insights - The OptiTROP-Lung04 study revealed that sac-TMT achieved an overall response rate (ORR) of 60.6% compared to 43.1% for chemotherapy, with a median PFS of 8.3 months versus 4.3 months (HR=0.49, p<0.0001) [3] - The OS data indicated a 40% reduction in the risk of death for sac-TMT compared to chemotherapy (HR 0.6; 95% CI: 0.44-0.82; p=0.001) [3] Breast Cancer Insights - In the OptiTROP-Breast02 study, sac-TMT showed an ORR of 41.5% versus 24.1% for chemotherapy, with a median PFS of 8.3 months compared to 4.1 months (HR 0.35; p<0.0001) [4] - The overall survival trend for sac-TMT was significantly better than the control group, with an OS HR of 0.33, although the data was not yet mature [4] Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 2.084 billion, 2.876 billion, and 4.663 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits expected to improve from a loss of 622 million yuan in 2025 to a profit of 561 million yuan by 2027 [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, Pop Mart (9992 HK) [2][15]. Core Insights - The report highlights a sustained growth momentum, leading to an upward revision of profit forecasts and target price, reaffirming the "Buy" rating [2][6][7]. - The target price has been raised to HKD 401.60, indicating a potential upside of 60.4% from the current price of HKD 250.40 [1][15]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for 2025 have been increased by 11%, with expectations of continued sales momentum into Q4 due to the retail peak season [6][7]. - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue growth, with 2025 revenue estimated at RMB 35,899 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 175.3% [5][16]. - Net profit for 2025 is projected to reach RMB 12,421 million, representing a year-on-year increase of 296.7% [5][16]. Market Growth Dynamics - The company reported a 245-250% year-on-year revenue growth in Q3 2025, with the domestic market growing by 185-190% and overseas markets experiencing a remarkable growth of 365-370% [6][7]. - The domestic market's online sales grew by 300-305%, driven by effective live-streaming e-commerce and refined online membership operations [6][7]. - The overseas market, particularly the Americas, showed exceptional performance, with revenue growth of 1265-1270% in Q3 [6][7]. Profitability and Valuation Metrics - The report anticipates an increase in profit margins, with gross profit margin expected to reach 70.8% in 2025 [8][11]. - The company’s price-to-earnings ratio is projected to be 24.5 times for 2025, indicating an attractive valuation given the expected growth [5][16]. - The report notes that the company’s ability to monetize its IP platform continues to strengthen, with significant contributions expected from new IPs and product innovations [6][7].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to Innovent Biologics, indicating an expected total return over the next 12-18 months that exceeds the relevant market benchmark by more than 10% [19]. Core Insights - Innovent Biologics has entered into a global strategic collaboration with Takeda Pharmaceutical, involving two late-stage investigational therapies (IBI363 and IBI343) and an early-stage project (IBI3001), with a total potential value of up to USD11.4 billion [1][5]. - IBI363 is viewed as a next-generation cornerstone therapy in oncology, with significant market potential, potentially expanding to a market size of USD150-200 billion when considering various patient populations [2][8]. - The collaboration is expected to leverage Innovent's development efficiency in China and Takeda's international capabilities, enhancing Innovent's global presence and long-term sustainable value [3][11]. Summary by Sections Collaboration Details - Innovent will receive an upfront payment of USD1.2 billion, including a USD100 million strategic equity investment, and potential milestone payments of up to USD10.2 billion [1][5]. - The agreement includes a profit and loss sharing model for IBI363 in the U.S. market, with development costs shared at a 40/60 ratio between Innovent and Takeda [1][5]. Product Potential - IBI363 has accumulated clinical data from over 1,200 patients and is prioritized for global development in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and colorectal cancer (CRC) [2][9]. - The first global Phase 3 clinical trial for IBI363 has received FDA approval, focusing on IO-resistant sqNSCLC patients [3][10]. Market Opportunity - The global immuno-oncology responsive population is approximately 1.5 million, corresponding to a USD50 billion market, with potential expansion into IO-resistant and cold tumor populations [2][8]. - IBI363's dual activation and α-bias attenuation mechanism may overcome dosage limitations of IL-2, enhancing its therapeutic potential [2][8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that Bosideng's main brand is experiencing high-quality growth, with expectations for strong sales during the peak season [7] - The company is focusing on brand building and differentiated channel operations, including the launch of new products at Paris Fashion Week and the opening of a new concept store in Shanghai [7] - Financial forecasts indicate steady revenue growth, with total revenue projected to reach 25.9 billion yuan in FY2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 11.6% [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue (in million yuan) for FY2024A is projected at 23,214, increasing to 25,902 in FY2025A, 28,512 in FY2026E, 31,420 in FY2027E, and 34,626 in FY2028E, with year-on-year growth rates of 38.39%, 11.58%, 10.08%, 10.20%, and 10.20% respectively [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders (in million yuan) is expected to grow from 3,074 in FY2024A to 3,514 in FY2025A, 3,938 in FY2026E, 4,393 in FY2027E, and 4,897 in FY2028E, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 43.74%, 14.31%, 12.06%, 11.57%, and 11.45% [1] - The report anticipates an EPS of 0.27 yuan for FY2024A, increasing to 0.30 yuan in FY2025A, 0.34 yuan in FY2026E, 0.38 yuan in FY2027E, and 0.42 yuan in FY2028E [1] Operational Insights - The main brand's revenue for FY2025 is projected at 21.67 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 11.0%, accounting for 83.7% of total revenue [7] - The report notes a significant increase in wholesale and self-operated business revenues, with wholesale up by 24.3% and self-operated by 5.2% [7] - The company has added 253 retail outlets, bringing the total to 3,470 by the end of FY2025 [7] Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for FY2025 is expected to be 57.3%, a decrease of 2.3 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a higher proportion of lower-margin wholesale and OEM business [7] - The net profit margin for FY2025 is projected to be 13.6%, reflecting a slight increase of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year [7] - Operating cash flow is expected to be 39.82 billion yuan, indicating a healthy financial position [7]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a potential upside of 15% to 35% from the current price [2][11]. Core Insights - The company has entered a global strategic partnership with Takeda Pharmaceutical to accelerate the development of next-generation IO and ADC therapies, expanding its global market value [5]. - The collaboration includes a significant upfront payment of $1.2 billion, with potential milestone payments totaling up to $10.2 billion, bringing the total deal value to a maximum of $11.4 billion [6]. - The company is expected to achieve net profits of RMB 373 million, RMB 1.427 billion, and RMB 2.404 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting substantial year-on-year growth [11]. Company Overview - The company operates in the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry, with a current H-share price of HKD 86.90 and a target price of HKD 107 [1]. - The company has a market capitalization of approximately RMB 690.75 billion and a total share count of 1,713.52 million [1]. Product Portfolio - The company's revenue is primarily derived from drug sales (87%), with a smaller portion from licensed products (12%) and R&D income (1%) [2]. - Key products include IBI363, which has shown promising clinical data and has received breakthrough therapy designation in China and fast track designation from the FDA in the U.S. [7]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve a net profit turnaround in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 282.23% [9]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to increase from -0.66 RMB in 2023 to 1.40 RMB by 2027 [9]. Strategic Development - The partnership with Takeda is not merely a licensing agreement but a joint development and commercialization model, which is expected to enhance the company's capabilities in global drug development and commercialization [7].