证券研究报告 2025 年 12 月 01 日│中国香港 互联网 天立国际控股公布 FY25 业绩：收入 35.89 亿元，yoy+8.1%；净利润 6.48 亿元，yoy+16.5%，符合业绩预告；调整后归母净利润约 6.34 亿元，不及 我们预期的 7.71 亿元。FY25 公司在"质量优先"战略下加强了生源优化和 对优质师资、餐饮后勤、AI 业务的投入，导致短期财务表现略逊预期。FY26 起公司将加强教育质量和短期财务表现的再平衡，推动利润逐渐重回增长。 公司全年派息总额约 2 亿元，派息率维持在 30%左右，股东回报稳健。当 前估值具备较高性价比，维持"买入"评级。 各板块收入稳健增长，升学成果再创新高 FY25 综合教育服务/产品销售/综合后勤服务/管理及特许经营收入分别同比 增长 7%/8%/2.7%/93.9%。公司升学成绩硕果累累，2025 高考成熟校区本 科率达 90%，一本率达 58%；成长期校区本科率达 32%，一本率达 14%； 国际升学、强基竞赛亦取得亮眼成绩。作为第二曲线的托管业务持续发展， 截至 25 年秋季已签约 23 所学校、40 个学段。 "质量优先"导向下招生及利润略逊预 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Resources Vientiane Life [1] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from its light asset management model, which allows it to enjoy operational benefits without significant capital investment, leading to lower risk and higher profit margins [5][24] - The company's strong bargaining power with merchants is supported by its parent company's stable growth and large-scale quality shopping centers, enhancing its ability to achieve long-term same-store growth [8][9] Financial Performance - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 14,767 million HKD in 2023 to 22,596 million HKD in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.1% [7] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 2,929 million HKD in 2023 to 5,572 million HKD in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of 15.3% [7] - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025 and 2026 is adjusted to 1.73 HKD and 2.12 HKD, respectively, with a new estimate for 2027 at 2.44 HKD [6][12] Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company operates under a light asset model, which allows it to leverage the parent company's extensive resources without the burden of heavy capital investment, thus maintaining a competitive edge in the market [18][24] - The parent company, China Resources Land, has a significant number of shopping centers, with 92 operational centers and 35 under construction, providing a stable and growing contract base for the company [41][42] - The company's ability to secure prime locations in high-tier cities enhances its market position and operational performance, leading to a strong upward trend in rental income [30][36] Growth Drivers - Key growth drivers include same-store sales growth exceeding expectations, new third-party contracts, and accelerated monetization of membership programs [11] - The company is expected to continue benefiting from the industry’s Matthew effect, where leading players gain more market share and operational advantages [10][36]

2025 年 12 月 01 日 | H70420@capitalcom.tw | | | --- | --- | | 顾向君 目标价(HKD) | 5.7 | 公司基本资讯 | 产业别 | 纺织服饰 | | --- | --- | | H 股价(2025/11/28) | 4.96 | | 恒生指数(2025/11/28) | 25,858.9 | | 股价 12 个月高/低 | 5.2/3.41 | | 总发行股数(百万) | 11,629.75 | | H 股数(百万) | 11,629.75 | | H 市值(亿元) | 414.99 | | 主要股东 | 高德康 (60.92%) | | 每股净值(元) | 1.38 | | 股价/账面净值 | 3.59 | | | 一个月 三个月 一年 | | 股价涨跌(%) | 18.73% 10.47% 4.20% | 近期评等 | 出刊日期 | 前日收盘 | 评等 | | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-06-26 | 4.62 | 买进 | | 2024-12-02 | 4.05 | 买进 | | 2024-06-27 | 4.33 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" rating for the company [3][9] Core Views - The brand down jacket segment leads to steady revenue growth, with inventory turnover significantly improving [4][9] - For the first half of FY2025/26, the company achieved revenue of 8.928 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.189 billion yuan, up 5.3% year-on-year [3][4] Revenue Breakdown - The brand down jacket business generated revenue of 6.568 billion yuan, up 8.3% year-on-year, with the Bosideng main brand contributing 5.719 billion yuan, also up 8.3% [4][5] - The OEM processing business saw revenue decline to 2.044 billion yuan, down 11.7% year-on-year [4] - Women's clothing revenue decreased by 18.6% to 251 million yuan, while diversified clothing revenue fell by 45.3% to 64 million yuan [4] Channel Performance - Self-operated channels generated revenue of 2.411 billion yuan, up 6.6%, while wholesale channels achieved 3.701 billion yuan, up 7.9% [5] - The company added 88 retail stores, bringing the total to 3,558, with a net increase of 3 self-operated stores [5] Profitability Metrics - The overall gross margin for FY2025/26 H1 slightly increased by 0.1 percentage points to 50.0%, while the brand down jacket business gross margin decreased by 2.0 percentage points to 59.1% [6][8] - The net profit margin increased by 0.5 percentage points to 13.3% due to various factors including reduced financial expenses and stable goodwill impairment in women's clothing [8] Cash Flow and Inventory Management - The average inventory turnover days decreased by 11 days to 178 days, attributed to a slowdown in raw material procurement and inventory reduction efforts [8] - The net cash flow from operating activities improved significantly to -1.084 billion yuan from -3.483 billion yuan in the previous year [8] Financial Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 3.931 billion yuan, 4.382 billion yuan, and 4.786 billion yuan for the fiscal years 2026, 2027, and 2028 respectively [9][11] - The projected P/E ratios for 2026, 2027, and 2028 are 13.5, 12.1, and 11.1 times respectively [9][11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [1]. Core Views - The company reported FY26H1 results that met expectations, with revenue of 89.28 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%, and a net profit of 11.89 billion yuan, up 5.3% year-on-year. The interim dividend declared is 0.063 HKD per share [7]. - The main brand, Bosideng, showed steady growth with a revenue of 57.19 billion yuan, reflecting an 8.3% year-on-year increase, while the overall brand down jacket business accounted for 73.6% of total revenue [7]. - The report anticipates that the cold winter and extended Spring Festival sales will drive performance in the second half of the fiscal year, supporting high-quality growth in earnings [7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 2024A at 23,214 million yuan, 2025A at 25,902 million yuan, 2026E at 28,512 million yuan, 2027E at 31,420 million yuan, and 2028E at 34,626 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 38.39%, 11.58%, 10.08%, 10.20%, and 10.20% respectively [1]. - Net profit forecasts are: 2024A at 3,074 million yuan, 2025A at 3,514 million yuan, 2026E at 3,938 million yuan, 2027E at 4,393 million yuan, and 2028E at 4,897 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 43.74%, 14.31%, 12.06%, 11.57%, and 11.45% respectively [1]. - The latest diluted EPS is projected to be 0.26 yuan for 2024A, increasing to 0.42 yuan by 2028E [1]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on optimizing its brand, products, and channels to sustain high-quality growth, with a net increase of 88 retail outlets in the down jacket business, bringing the total to 3,558 [7]. - The OEM business saw a decline in revenue due to order front-loading, while the women's clothing segment experienced a strategic contraction, closing inefficient stores and focusing on core categories [7]. Profitability and Efficiency - The gross margin for FY26H1 was 50.0%, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to the higher revenue share from the high-margin down jacket business [7]. - The report highlights improvements in inventory turnover days, which decreased by 11 days to 178 days, indicating better inventory management and preparation for peak sales [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Meituan [3][13] Core Insights - Meituan reported Q3 2025 revenue of Rmb95.5 billion, a 2.0% year-on-year increase, but below consensus expectations of Rmb97.5 billion. The operating profit was Rmb-19.76 billion, significantly lower than Rmb13.69 billion in the same period last year [8][9] - The report indicates that industry competition has peaked, with core local commerce experiencing significant losses in Q3 but expected sequential improvement in Q4. Core local commerce revenue declined by 2.8% year-on-year to Rmb67.4 billion, with an operating margin of -20.9% [9][10] - Meituan Instashopping achieved strong growth, leading the industry, with a focus on enhancing supply and user engagement. The platform launched "Branded Flagship InstaMart," which saw a 300% sales increase on its first day during the "11.11" shopping event [10][11] - New initiatives showed improved profitability, with revenue from new initiatives rising 15.9% year-on-year to Rmb28.0 billion, although operating losses widened to Rmb1.3 billion. Keeta, a new initiative, achieved profitability in Hong Kong ahead of schedule [11][12] Financial Summary - For 2023, Meituan's revenue is projected at Rmb276.7 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 25.8%. Adjusted net profit is expected to be Rmb23.3 billion [6][16] - The adjusted net profit forecast for 2025 has been revised down to Rmb-16.6 billion, reflecting the impact of intensified competition on short-term margins [13][16] - The report anticipates a long-term recovery in profitability, with a projected revenue of Rmb365.98 billion in 2025 and Rmb485.30 billion by 2027 [6][16]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Meituan-W (03690.HK) is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Views - The report indicates that the impact of the fierce competition in the food delivery sector on the company's revenue and profit is expected to gradually diminish. The company achieved a revenue of 95.5 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2%, primarily affected by intensified competition in its core local business. Adjusted losses reached 16 billion yuan, with a net profit margin of -17%, indicating a shift from profit to loss [1][8] - The company maintains its long-term goal of achieving a high daily order volume of 100 million and believes that as the industry returns to rationality, the profitability of the food delivery business will return to reasonable levels [1][8] Summary by Sections Overview - The report highlights that the competition in the food delivery market has significantly impacted the company's revenue and profit, with a revenue of 95.5 billion yuan for the quarter. Revenue breakdown shows a year-on-year decline of 17% in instant delivery services, a 1% increase in transaction commissions, and a 6% increase in marketing services [1][8] - The gross margin, sales expense ratio, and R&D expense ratio have all weakened, leading to an adjusted loss of 16 billion yuan, with a continued increase in losses quarter-on-quarter [1][8] Core Local Business - The core local business revenue decreased by 3% year-on-year, resulting in an operating loss of 14.1 billion yuan and an operating profit margin of -21.0%, a decline of 42 percentage points year-on-year. The company plans to continue significant investments in membership and promotional budgets in Q4 2025 [2][23] - Instant delivery saw a total order volume growth of 17%, with average losses per order of 2.6 yuan for food delivery and 1.1 yuan for flash purchase. The restaurant delivery order volume grew by approximately 15% [2][24] - The in-store travel and accommodation segment experienced a revenue growth of 13% year-on-year, but the operating profit margin decreased to 29% due to increased advertising costs and subsidies [2][28] New Business - New business revenue grew by 16% year-on-year to 28 billion yuan, with an operating loss of 1.3 billion yuan. The management noted that the user experience in Hong Kong's Keeta turned positive in October, leading to improved user retention and higher average prices [3][30] - The company plans to expand its overseas business by opening three new locations in Gulf countries and piloting in Brazil, although significant losses are expected to increase [3][34] Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 360.5 billion yuan, 427 billion yuan, and 509.2 billion yuan, reflecting a slight decrease in growth expectations. Adjusted net profit forecasts for the same period are -16 billion yuan, 12.4 billion yuan, and 33.2 billion yuan, indicating a significant downward adjustment [3][35] - The report also provides detailed financial metrics, including adjusted EPS and profit margins, indicating a challenging outlook for the core local business due to competitive pressures [4][38]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Zhihu-W (2390 HK) with an "Outperform" rating, targeting a price of HK$14.80 [2][5][24]. Core Insights - Zhihu is positioned as China's leading Q&A-centric online content community, leveraging generative AI to enhance content supply and commercial conversion, which is expected to unlock new monetization opportunities [3][19]. - The company aims to achieve its first annual adjusted profit in 2025, with a focus on improving operational efficiency and reducing costs [8][22]. - The integration of AI tools is transforming the community ecosystem, significantly increasing user engagement and monetization potential [23]. Financial Overview - For FY25, total revenue is projected to decline by 24% to RMB 27.5 billion, with adjusted net profit expected to be RMB 33.34 million, marking a return to profitability [9][20]. - The company reported a total revenue of RMB 6.589 billion in Q3 2025, a 22% year-over-year decline, but better than market expectations [20][21]. - Adjusted gross profit margin is expected to improve from 60.6% in FY24 to 61.7% in FY25, indicating a focus on margin expansion [17][20]. Business Segment Outlook - Online marketing services are anticipated to bottom out in Q4 2025, with management confident in maintaining revenue levels in 2026 [21]. - Paid membership services are being refined to enhance user experience and community integration, with projected revenue of RMB 344 million for Q4 2025 [21][22]. - The vocational education segment has reached breakeven and is now included in the "Other" business category, contributing to overall revenue stability [21][22]. Valuation Analysis - The report assigns a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 1.2 for FY25, reflecting a cautious valuation approach due to ongoing business adjustments [13][24]. - The target price of HK$14.80 is based on the company's unique positioning in the Q&A community and the anticipated benefits from AI integration [5][24].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [4][6]. Core Views - The company is a leading private national city gas company, with ongoing privatization efforts aimed at promoting industry chain integration [5][8]. - The natural gas retail business shows steady growth, benefiting from cost reductions and price adjustments, while the gas connection business's impact is expected to stabilize [8][44]. - The company is expanding its diversified energy and smart home businesses, which are anticipated to contribute to incremental performance growth [5][8]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, established in 1993, is a leading private clean energy distributor in China, primarily engaged in the investment, construction, operation, and management of gas pipeline infrastructure [14][15]. - As of mid-2025, the company operates 263 city gas projects across 22 provinces and municipalities in China [14]. Financial Performance - The company forecasts revenues of RMB 113.858 billion in 2023, with a projected decline to RMB 109.853 billion in 2024, followed by a recovery to RMB 112.714 billion in 2025 [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be RMB 6.816 billion in 2023, decreasing to RMB 5.987 billion in 2024, and then increasing to RMB 6.248 billion in 2025 [4]. Privatization Process - The company is undergoing a privatization process led by its major shareholder, New Hope Group, which currently holds 34.28% of the company [5][38]. - The privatization plan includes a share exchange and cash payment, with a total value of HKD 80 per share, indicating a 12.8% upside from the closing price on November 28, 2025 [5][40]. Natural Gas Business - The company’s retail gas volume is projected to reach 262 billion cubic meters in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 4.2% [5][48]. - The gas connection business has seen a decline in new residential connections, dropping from 2.622 million in 2021 to 1.617 million in 2024, but the impact on overall revenue is manageable compared to peers [5][74]. Growth Opportunities - The company is expanding its diversified energy and smart home businesses, with the smart home segment expected to grow at a CAGR of 22.7% from 2020 to 2024 [5][8]. - The company has a robust pipeline of projects in the energy sector, with a total installed capacity of 6.9 GW and 1.6 GW under construction as of September 2025 [5][8]. Market Position - The company’s market capitalization is approximately HKD 80.284 billion, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 50.52% as of mid-2025, indicating a stable financial position [2][4]. - The company’s price-to-earnings ratio is projected to be 12, 11, and 10 times for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, which is competitive compared to peers [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of HKD 5.183 billion for FY2026H1, a year-on-year decrease of 12.9%. Gross profit was HKD 1.827 billion, down 20.1%, and net profit attributable to shareholders was HKD 571 million, a decline of 24.4%. The interim dividend per share remained flat at HKD 0.13 [2][6]. - The core operating business remains stable, although the installation, maintenance, and construction segments, along with property business, have seen declines, impacting overall profitability. The company has shown signs of a turning point in free cash flow, indicating potential for future dividend increases [2][9]. Business Segment Analysis - **Urban Water Supply**: Revenue decreased by 13.1% to HKD 3.27 billion, with segment profit down 17.4% to HKD 941 million. However, core water supply service revenue increased by 4.5% to HKD 1.801 billion, driven by a 5% increase in water sales. The completion of water price adjustments in eight cities is expected to further boost revenue and profit margins [9]. - **Direct Drinking Water**: Revenue fell by 28.3% to HKD 263 million, with segment profit declining 55.2% to HKD 75 million. Despite this, revenue from direct water supply operations and equipment sales remained stable [9]. - **Environmental Segment**: Benefiting from the Meifeng Wastewater Treatment Project, this segment achieved revenue of HKD 832 million, a year-on-year increase of 8.7%, with segment profit rising 29.7% to HKD 367 million [9]. - **General Contracting**: Revenue decreased by 6.1% to HKD 398 million, with segment profit down 60.2% to HKD 158 million [9]. - **Property Business**: Revenue plummeted by 93.3% to HKD 17 million, with segment profit dropping 96.4% to HKD 500,000, but the impact on overall performance is expected to be limited [9]. Financial Performance - The company experienced a 17.6% decrease in financial expenses during FY2026H1, benefiting from lower financing costs amid domestic and international interest rate cuts [9]. - The interim dividend payout ratio is 37%, with capital expenditures peaking at HKD 5.14 billion in FY2024, decreasing to HKD 3.24 billion in FY2025, leading to a positive free cash flow of HKD 150 million. For FY2026, capital expenditures are projected to be no more than HKD 2 billion, indicating a clear turning point in free cash flow and potential for increased dividends [9]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve net profits attributable to shareholders of HKD 1.14 billion, 1.16 billion, and 1.20 billion for FY2026-2028, with year-on-year growth rates of 6.0%, 2.2%, and 2.7% respectively. The emergence of free cash flow is viewed positively for future dividend increases, with a projected dividend payout ratio of 42.53% for FY2026-2028, corresponding to dividend yields of 5.1%, 5.2%, and 5.3% based on the stock price as of November 28, 2025 [9].