Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the company [7] Core Insights - The launch of the new game "暴吵萌厨" on May 28, 2025, has shown strong performance, topping download charts across multiple platforms during its pre-download phase [1][2] - The game has received positive market feedback, ranking first on the iOS free chart for three consecutive days and third overall, indicating strong player engagement and social sharing [2] - The company has a strategic focus on expanding its portfolio with various mini-games and is actively developing multiple projects for both domestic and overseas markets [3] Financial Review and Commentary - The company has experienced fluctuating revenues over the past four years, with revenues recorded at 1.62 billion, 1.52 billion, 1.06 billion, and 1.16 billion respectively for the years 2021 to 2024, showing a recovery in 2024 with a 10.1% year-on-year increase [4] - Net profits have also varied, with figures of 275 million, 25 million, -138 million, and -49 million for the same years, indicating a significant reduction in losses in 2024 [4] Outlook for 2025 - The successful launch of "暴吵萌厨" sets a positive tone for the company's fiscal year 2025, with expectations for revenue growth and profitability improvement if the company can leverage its strengths in product development and market expansion [5] - The company is focusing on diversifying its product matrix with female-oriented games and mini-games, aiming to enhance its competitive position in the gaming market [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Group with a target price of HK$70.00, indicating a potential upside of 36% from the current price of HK$51.55 [3][12][18]. Core Insights - Xiaomi's 1Q25 performance exceeded expectations, with revenue and adjusted net profit reaching RMB 111.2 billion and RMB 10.6 billion, respectively, surpassing forecasts by 3% and 5% [10]. - The smartphone segment showed a 3% year-on-year sales growth, with high-end models accounting for 25% of shipments in China [10]. - The IoT segment experienced a significant revenue increase of 59% year-on-year, driven by a doubling of revenue from IoT home appliances and a 65% increase in sales volume [10]. - The electric vehicle (EV) and AI business generated RMB 18.6 billion in revenue, with a gross margin of 23.2%, higher than the forecasted 20.8% [10]. - Overall gross margin reached 22.8%, the highest since 2017, attributed to improved operational efficiency and increased investment income [10]. Financial Projections - Revenue for 2025 is projected at RMB 481.3 billion, reflecting a 32% year-on-year growth, with adjusted net profit expected to reach RMB 41.9 billion, an 82% increase [16][20]. - The report anticipates a cautious outlook for smartphone shipment growth, projecting a 3% increase in 2025, with price increases being a key growth driver [11]. - Adjusted EPS for 2025 is forecasted to be RMB 1.64, up from RMB 1.57, representing a 5% increase [4][16]. Valuation - The target P/E ratio for 2026 has been adjusted down to 28.5 times adjusted net profit, reflecting ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties [17]. - The valuation remains at an 8% premium compared to Apple's current P/E ratio, based on stronger growth prospects for Xiaomi [17][18].

Group 1 - Investment Rating: Buy with a target price of HK$70.00 [2][3][23] - Core Viewpoint: The company expects advertising revenue to recover to double-digit growth in the second half of 2025, driven mainly by external advertising [2][8][9] - Revenue and Profit Summary: In Q1 2025, revenue grew by 11% year-on-year to RMB 32.6 billion, and adjusted net profit was RMB 4.6 billion, both in line with expectations [2][3][20] Group 2 - Financial Forecasts: Revenue and adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 remain largely unchanged [21][23] - Shareholder Returns: The company announced a share buyback plan of HK$16 billion over the next 36 months, with a total of 29.2 million shares repurchased so far this year [3][21] - Key Financial Metrics: The projected revenue for 2025 is RMB 141.9 billion, with an adjusted net profit of RMB 20.4 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12% [5][21][27]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price adjusted from HKD 50.00 to HKD 46.00, indicating a potential upside of 27.6% from the current price of HKD 36.05 [4][2]. Core Insights - The company's Q1 performance was impacted by seasonal factors and increased R&D expenditures, particularly in AI and new game categories. Game revenue saw a quarter-on-quarter decline primarily due to seasonal decreases in monetization updates for "Jian Wang 3," while WPS revenue also fell due to procurement process impacts [2][8]. - New game launches are anticipated to stabilize revenue in the second half of the year, with titles like "Jie Xian Ji" expected to launch in summer and "Jian Xia Qian Yuan: Zero" by the end of May [2][8]. - Adjustments to profit forecasts for 2025-2027 were made, reflecting changes in the valuation contribution from Kingsoft Cloud due to its declining market value [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Projections**: - 2025E: RMB 11,184 million (down 4% from previous forecast) - 2026E: RMB 12,189 million (down 5%) - 2027E: RMB 13,486 million (down 5%) [3][12] - **Game and Other Revenue**: - 2025E: RMB 5,327 million (down 4%) - 2026E: RMB 5,354 million (down 8%) - 2027E: RMB 5,484 million (down 8%) [3][12] - **WPS Revenue**: - 2025E: RMB 5,857 million (down 3%) - 2026E: RMB 6,836 million (down 3%) - 2027E: RMB 8,002 million (down 3%) [3][12] - **Gross Profit**: - 2025E: RMB 9,281 million (up 6%) - 2026E: RMB 10,098 million (up 3%) - 2027E: RMB 11,204 million (up 14%) [3][12] - **Adjusted Net Profit**: - 2025E: RMB 2,724 million (down 1%) - 2026E: RMB 2,957 million (down 4%) - 2027E: RMB 3,461 million (down 3%) [3][12] Market Data - The company's market capitalization is approximately HKD 50,233.87 million, with a 52-week high of HKD 46.90 and a low of HKD 20.10. The average daily trading volume is 13.72 million shares, and the year-to-date change is 7.13% [6][12].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Xiaomi Group is "Recommended" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported Q1 2025 earnings that exceeded expectations, with revenue reaching 111.3 billion yuan (up 47.4% year-on-year) and adjusted net profit of 10.7 billion yuan (up 64.5% year-on-year) [4] - The automotive business's losses have narrowed, with a single-quarter operating loss reduced to 500 million yuan, and the SU7 series deliveries reached 75,869 units [6] - The smartphone high-end strategy is progressing, with a market share in mainland China returning to first place, and ASP for smartphones increased to 1,211 yuan (up 5.8% year-on-year) [6] - The smart home appliance business is growing rapidly, with IoT and consumer goods revenue reaching 32.3 billion yuan (up 58.7% year-on-year) and a gross margin of 25.2% [7] - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 41.8 billion, 53.4 billion, and 66.6 billion yuan respectively, reflecting strong growth across multiple business segments [7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue was 111.3 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 47.4% and adjusted net profit of 10.7 billion yuan, up 64.5% year-on-year [4] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 502.4 billion, 649.6 billion, and 819.2 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 37.3%, 29.3%, and 26.1% [5][11] Automotive Business - The automotive segment generated revenue of 18.1 billion yuan in Q1, with a gross margin of 23.2% and a narrowed operating loss of 500 million yuan [6] - The upcoming YU7 model is expected to be launched in July, featuring significant upgrades compared to the SU7 [6] Smartphone and IoT Business - Smartphone shipments reached 41.8 million units with revenue of 50.6 billion yuan in Q1, and the ASP increased to 1,211 yuan [6] - The IoT and consumer goods segment saw a revenue increase of 58.7% year-on-year, driven by strong sales in smart appliances [7] Profitability and Valuation - The company’s gross margin is projected to improve, with net profit margins expected to reach 8.3% by 2025 [11] - The P/E ratio is forecasted to decrease from 52.1 in 2024 to 29.5 in 2025, indicating improved valuation metrics [11]

证券研究报告 小米集团-W (1810 HK) 维持目标价 71.2 港币，维持"买入"评级 港股通 IoT/汽车业务毛利率超预期 | 华泰研究 | | | 季报点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 5 月 | 29 日│中国香港 | 消费电子 | 小米 1Q25 收入同比增长 47%至 1113 亿元，创历史新高，调整后营业利润 （毛利-三项费用）同比增长 114%至 99.6 亿元。1Q25 IoT 和汽车业务毛利 率表现出色，手机 ASP 创历史新高，高端化持续推进。5/22，公司正式发布 玄戒 O1/T1 芯片，我们认为自研芯片是品牌厂商构建生态的重要一步，看好 小米高端手机市场份额持续扩大。基于 SOTP 估值法，维持公司目标价 71.2 港币，包含手机 xAIoT（44.9 港币），汽车（26.3 港币）。维持"买入"。 亮点#1：IoT 毛利率超预期，收入创历史新高 1Q25，IoT 与生活消费品业务收入和毛利率再创历史新高，收入同比+58.7% 达到 323 亿元，毛利率达到 25.2%（YoY: +5.4pct；QoQ: +4.7pct）。原因或 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price adjusted from HKD 50.00 to HKD 46.00, indicating a potential upside of 27.6% from the current price of HKD 36.05 [4][2]. Core Insights - The company's Q1 performance was impacted by seasonal factors and increased R&D expenditures, particularly in AI and new game categories. Game revenue saw a quarter-on-quarter decline primarily due to seasonal decreases in monetization updates for "Jian Wang 3," while WPS revenue also fell due to procurement process changes. New game launches are expected to stabilize revenue in the second half of the year [2][8]. - Adjustments to profit forecasts for 2025-2027 were made, reflecting changes in the valuation contribution from Kingsoft Cloud due to its market value decline [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Projections**: - 2025E: RMB 11,184 million (down 4% from previous forecast) - 2026E: RMB 12,189 million (down 5%) - 2027E: RMB 13,486 million (down 5%) [3][12]. - **Game and Other Revenue**: - 2025E: RMB 5,327 million (down 4%) - 2026E: RMB 5,354 million (down 8%) - 2027E: RMB 5,484 million (down 8%) [3]. - **WPS Revenue**: - 2025E: RMB 5,857 million (down 3%) - 2026E: RMB 6,836 million (down 3%) - 2027E: RMB 8,002 million (down 3%) [3]. - **Gross Profit**: - 2025E: RMB 9,281 million (up 6%) - 2026E: RMB 10,098 million (up 3%) - 2027E: RMB 11,204 million (up 14%) [3]. - **Adjusted Net Profit**: - 2025E: RMB 2,724 million (down 1%) - 2026E: RMB 2,957 million (down 4%) - 2027E: RMB 3,461 million (down 3%) [3]. Market Data - The company's market capitalization is approximately HKD 50,233.87 million, with a 52-week high of HKD 46.90 and a low of HKD 20.10. The average daily trading volume is 13.72 million shares, and the year-to-date change is +7.13% [6][12].

Group 1 - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" [1] - The core viewpoint of the report highlights a strong rebound in the domestic tea beverage industry, with an upward revision of the target price from 539 HKD to 608 HKD [1] - The report reflects a higher forecast for same-store sales growth due to increased competition from the latest delivery platforms and a rapid pace of new store openings [1] Group 2 - The earnings per share forecast has been adjusted upward by 5-6% [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Group-W (01810) and raises the target price to HKD 62 [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Xiaomi's 1Q25 performance exceeded expectations, with revenue and adjusted net profit reaching RMB 1,113 billion and RMB 107 billion, respectively, surpassing market forecasts [1]. - AIoT revenue grew significantly by 59% year-on-year to RMB 323 billion, with gross margin increasing from 20.5% in 4Q24 to 25.2% [1]. - The gross margin for the automotive segment improved to 23.2%, driven by scale effects from the SU7 model, high management efficiency, and growth in equity income [1]. Summary by Sections - **Revenue Forecasts**: The revenue forecasts for Xiaomi for 2025 and 2026 have been raised to RMB 5,030 billion and RMB 6,159 billion, respectively, with adjusted EPS estimates increased to RMB 1.87 and RMB 2.14 [1]. - **Automotive Business**: The average selling price (ASP) for Xiaomi's automotive segment has been adjusted down to RMB 254,000 for 2026, with a focus on the performance of the YU7 model post-launch and the ramp-up of production capacity [2]. - **Smartphone Market Position**: Xiaomi regained the top position in China's smartphone shipments in 1Q25, with a high-end market share of 25%, despite a global smartphone market growth forecast of less than 1% for 2025 [2]. - **AI Investment**: Management plans to increase investment in AI, expecting it to account for one-quarter of total R&D spending, with an annual R&D budget of RMB 30 billion [2]. - **Home Appliance Growth**: The report is optimistic about Xiaomi's long-term expansion in the home appliance sector, with significant growth in sales and ASP for major appliances, supported by the construction of a smart factory in Wuhan [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Power (02380) and raises the target price by 7.4% from HKD 3.51 to HKD 3.77 [1] Core Insights - The report indicates an increase in the earnings forecast for 2025 and 2026 by 1% and 1.4% respectively, highlighting an attractive dividend yield of 6% and 7% for these years [1] - Total power generation from January to April showed a slight year-on-year increase of 0.3%, with wind and solar power generation rising significantly by 32.1% and 13.6% respectively [1] - The report notes a decline of over 7% in domestic coal prices (both at ports and inland) compared to the end of March this year, suggesting that the company's thermal power price differential for the first half of the year may exceed the analyst's expectations by approximately 2% [1]