Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Li Auto (LI.US/2015.HK) [3][10] - The target price for Li Auto (LI.US) is raised to $32.2, indicating a potential upside of 17% [3][5] - The target price for Li Auto-W (2015.HK) is raised to HKD 132.0, also indicating a potential upside of 17% [3][6] Core Insights - Li Auto's growth momentum for 2025 is supported by the launch of new models and expansion of its sales network, with a solid foundation for total delivery growth [10] - The company is focusing on international market expansion, which is expected to contribute to incremental growth in the next two years [10] - Li Auto's strategic emphasis on AI investments is aimed at ensuring long-term competitive advantages [10] Financial Performance and Forecast - Revenue projections for Li Auto from 2023 to 2027 are as follows: - 2023: RMB 123,851 million - 2024: RMB 144,460 million (growth of 17%) - 2025E: RMB 176,440 million (growth of 22%) - 2026E: RMB 230,493 million (growth of 31%) - 2027E: RMB 259,382 million (growth of 13%) [4][11] - Gross margin is projected to be 22.2% in 2023, declining slightly to 20.9% by 2027 [4][11] - Net profit (loss) projections are as follows: - 2023: RMB 11,704 million - 2024: RMB 8,032 million (decline of 31%) - 2025E: RMB 8,724 million (growth of 9%) - 2026E: RMB 12,922 million (growth of 48%) - 2027E: RMB 17,543 million (growth of 36%) [4][11] Market Expectations - In Q4 2024, Li Auto's revenue reached RMB 44,274 million, a year-on-year increase of 6% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3% [12] - The company achieved a gross margin of 20.3% in Q4 2024, with a net profit of RMB 3,523 million, down 38% year-on-year but up 25% quarter-on-quarter [12] - The average selling price of vehicles decreased by 12% year-on-year to RMB 268,709 [12] Valuation - The report employs a sum-of-the-parts valuation method, assigning a target price of $32.2 for Li Auto (LI.US) based on a target P/E ratio of 26.7x for 2025 [10][18] - The target price for Li Auto-W (2015.HK) is set at HKD 132.0 [10][18]

2025 年 3 月 17 日 公司研究 能源工程订单内外开花，算力中心建设蓬勃发展 ——中国能源建设（3996.HK）经营近况点评 要点 布局战新产业，积极构建全国一体化算力网络。公司凭借在绿电领域的技术优势 和全产业链一体化建设的优势，积极参与全国一体化算力网络系统的构建，已在 甘肃庆阳、宁夏中卫、安徽芜湖、广东韶关、山西大同、北京经开区等多个枢纽 节点投资或布局了数据中心项目。目前在建的甘肃庆阳大数据产业园示范项目， 一期工程已于 2024 年 9 月点亮投运，一次性通过中国质量认证中心（CQC）数 据中心场地基础设施认证，获颁国标最高等级——增强级（GB50174-2017A 级） 证书。公司旗下中能建（北京）智慧算力科技有限公司与城地香江签署了《附条 件生效的股份认购协议》，致力于打造算力中心"国家队"。 盈利预测、估值与评级：中国能源建设在电力建设及运营投资领域有竞争优势， 新签订单快速增长，算力中心建设蓬勃发展，我们看好公司在电力及算力等领域 的发展。公司在 2024 年前三季度归母净利润同比增长 17.3%，经营表现优异， 我们上调公司 24 年归母净利润预测至 86 亿元（上调约 3%），考 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an OUTPERFORM rating for the company [2][5] Core Insights - The company has shown significant profit improvement, with a net profit increase of 200% year-on-year in 2024, reaching US$366 million [3][14] - The production of copper and zinc has steadily increased, with copper production at 400,000 tons in 2024, up 15% year-on-year, and zinc production at 220,000 tons, up 8% year-on-year [3][14] - The company is advancing major projects, including the successful development of Chalcobamba and the expansion of Kinsevere, which is expected to ramp up production in 2025 [15][17] - The company plans to acquire Brazilian Nickel for up to US$500 million, which is expected to enhance its nickel production capacity significantly by 2030 [17] Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024 was US$4.479 billion, a 3% increase year-on-year, with EBITDA rising by 40% to US$2.049 billion [3][14] - The company expects EPS for 2025-2027 to be US$0.04, US$0.05, and US$0.05 respectively, translating to HK$0.31, HK$0.39, and HK$0.39 based on the current exchange rate [5][18] - The target price is set at HK$4.65, reflecting a 15x PE valuation based on the 2025 EPS [5][18] Production Guidance - For 2025, the company anticipates copper production of 470,000 to 520,000 tons, with specific contributions from Las Bambas, Khoemacau, and Kinsevere [9][16] - Zinc production is expected to be between 310,000 and 340,000 tons [9][16] Capital Expenditure - The company projects capital expenditures of US$1.2 billion to US$1.3 billion for 2025, with significant allocations for Las Bambas, Khoemacau, and Kinsevere [16][17]

联合研究丨港股公司深度丨贝壳-W（2423.HK） [Table_Title] 房屋经纪王者归来，三翼齐飞开拓未来 ——贝壳-W 深度覆盖报告 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 经纪主业护城河竞对难以逾越，直营品牌链家先发占据核心战场，通过贝联把握下沉市场实现 市占扩张。二手市场边际向好而低线城市新房市场低迷为公司经营舒适区间，二手业务提量新 房业务提价，公司业绩持续增厚，经营杠杆也会放大盈利弹性。家装与租赁业务短期增收不增 利，但中期有望为公司贡献较大业绩增量。鉴于竞争优势、相对稀缺、潜在业绩弹性以及入通 后的增量资金等因素，公司短期应当享有一定估值溢价。中长期角度，经纪业务份额仍有提升 空间，家装、租赁可贡献潜在增长，数据资产具备较大价值弹性，公司属于战略配置品种。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 刘义 范超 蔡方羿 SAC：S0490520040001 SAC：S0490513080001 SAC：S0490516060001 SFC：BUV416 SFC：BQK473 SFC：BUV463 袁佳楠 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to AIA Group (1299 HK) with a target price of HKD 84.00, indicating a potential upside of 37.1% from the current closing price of HKD 61.25 [1][2][6]. Core Insights - The new business value for 2024 is expected to grow by 18%, aligning with the report's expectations but falling short of market expectations by 2%. The new business value ratio stands at 54.5%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.9 percentage points, primarily due to changes in product structure [6][7]. - The Hong Kong market contributes the most to new business value, accounting for 35% with a year-on-year growth of 23%. Local business and mainland visitor new business values have also shown significant growth of 24% and 22%, respectively [6]. - The company has received approval to enter four new provinces in mainland China, indicating ongoing growth potential in that market. The company aims to enter 1-2 new provinces annually [6][7]. - The operational profit for 2024 is expected to increase by 7%, with earnings per share (EPS) projected to grow by 12%, surpassing the company's guidance [6][7]. - AIA Group plans to return 75% of its net free surplus to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks, with a new USD 1.6 billion share repurchase plan announced [6][7]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for AIA Group are as follows: USD 6,638 million in 2023, increasing to USD 9,712 million in 2025E, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.3% in 2023 and 3.5% in 2025E [5][13]. - Net profit is expected to rise from USD 3,764 million in 2023 to USD 7,111 million in 2025E, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16.7% in 2023 and 7.0% in 2025E [5][13]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 23.8 in 2023 to 11.6 in 2025E, indicating improved valuation over time [5][6]. - The company's embedded value (EV) is expected to grow from USD 69,035 million in 2024 to USD 73,456 million in 2025E, with a year-on-year growth rate of 6.4% [7][8].

上 市 公 司 公 司 点 评 / 公 司 点 公用事业 2025 年 03 月 17 日 港华智慧能源 (01083) ——核心利润大幅增长 光伏添成长动力 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 | 投资要点： | | --- | 财务数据及盈利预测 资料来源：Bloomberg 证券分析师 | | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万港元） | 19,842 | 21,314 | 21,861 | 22,739 | 23,499 | | 同比增长率（%） | -1.2 | 7.4 | 2.6 | 4.0 | 3.3 | | 归母净利润（百万港元） | 1,575 | 1,606 | 1,809 | 1,928 | 2,029 | | 同比增长率（%） | 63.2 | 2.0 | 12.7 | 6.5 | 5.3 | | 每股收益（港元/股） | 0.48 | 0.47 | 0.52 | 0.55 | 0.58 | | 净资产收益率（%） | 6.89 | 6.85 | 6.86 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [1][4][6]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth of 20% in 2024, driven by high-margin products, with total revenue reaching 10.07 billion yuan and net profit increasing to 1.15 billion yuan [1][4]. - The company has maintained a stable net profit margin, with improvements in gross margin and a decrease in management fees contributing positively [1][2]. - The company is focusing on optimizing its product structure, which is expected to enhance gross margin levels and improve cash flow in the coming years [4][19]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's revenue is projected to grow by 19.6% to 10.07 billion yuan, while net profit is expected to rise by 19.5% to 1.15 billion yuan [1][20]. - The net profit margin for the second half of 2024 is anticipated to increase by 1 percentage point to 7.3%, supported by a 1.2 percentage point rise in gross margin and a 1.6 percentage point decrease in advertising expenses [2][20]. Store Expansion and E-commerce - The company opened a net of 16 adult stores and 3 children's stores in 2024, bringing the total to 5,750 and 2,548 stores respectively [3]. - The e-commerce channel is expected to grow by 12.2% year-on-year, with the proportion of exclusive products increasing to 83.6% [3]. Cash Flow and Dividend Policy - Operating cash flow is projected to decline to 0.7 billion yuan due to increased inventory and accounts receivable, with the net cash ratio dropping to 0.06 [1][19]. - The dividend payout ratio is expected to slightly increase to 45% in 2024 [1][4]. Profit Forecast - The company forecasts net profits of 1.3 billion yuan, 1.5 billion yuan, and 1.6 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of 13.1%, 12.2%, and 11.8% [4][20].

新股預覽 ─ 南山鋁業（2610.HK） 金屬製造行業 2025 年 03 月 17 日 背景 公司是東南亞三大氧化鋁生產企業之一：根據弗若斯特沙利文的資 料，截至 2023 年底，東南亞主要的氧化鋁生產國為印尼和越南，公司 是東南亞三大氧化鋁生產企業之一。二期氧化鋁生產項目的完成使公 司的氧化鋁設計年產能達到兩百萬噸，根據弗若斯特沙利文的資料， 按於 2023 年的設計年產能計，這使該集團在印尼及東南亞排名首位。 於 2023 年，根據弗若斯特沙利文的資料，該集團為東南亞氧化鋁市場 的第二大生產商，且按實際產量計，佔東南亞氧化鋁行業 34.9%的市 場份額。上述成就亦證明了公司的技術實力、卓越運營和發展承諾。 公司持續擴大產能：於 2024 年上半年，公司已啟動建設新氧化鋁生產 項目新增氧化鋁生產設施，其氧化鋁設計年產能為兩百萬噸。公司的 冶金級氧化鋁是生產電解鋁的重要原材料。根據弗若斯特沙利文的資 料，由於其在滿足高性能鋁產品的嚴格要求方面發揮著關鍵作用，因 此在東南亞市場上需求強勁。公司的產品質量超過 GB/T 24487-2022 標準的 AO-1 級，其卓越的化學成分證明了這一點。 行業仍具發展潛力 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to AIA Group (1299 HK) with a target price of HKD 84.00, indicating a potential upside of 37.1% from the current closing price of HKD 61.25 [1][2][6]. Core Insights - The new business value for 2024 is expected to grow by 18%, aligning with the report's expectations but falling short of market expectations by 2%. The new business value ratio stands at 54.5%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.9 percentage points, primarily due to changes in product structure [6]. - The Hong Kong market contributes the largest share to new business value at 35%, with a year-on-year growth of 23%. Local business and mainland visitor new business values have increased by 24% and 22% respectively [6]. - The company has received approval to enter four new provinces in mainland China, indicating sustained growth potential in this market. The company aims to enter 1-2 new provinces annually [6]. - The operational profit for 2024 is expected to grow by 7% year-on-year, with earnings per share (EPS) projected to increase by 12%, surpassing the company's guidance [6]. - AIA Group plans to return 75% of its net free surplus to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks, with a proposed new USD 1.6 billion share repurchase plan [6]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for AIA Group are as follows: USD 6,638 million in 2023, increasing to USD 9,712 million in 2025E, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.3% for 2023 and 41.3% for 2024 [5][7]. - Net profit is expected to rise from USD 3,764 million in 2023 to USD 7,111 million in 2025E, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16.7% in 2023 and 91.2% in 2024 [5][7]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 23.8 in 2023 to 11.6 in 2025E, indicating improved valuation metrics over the forecast period [5][7]. - The company's embedded value (EV) is expected to grow from USD 69,035 million in 2024 to USD 73,456 million in 2025E, with a year-on-year growth rate of 6.4% [7][8]. Key Financial Metrics - The operational profit (OPAT) is forecasted to be USD 6,605 million in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 6.3% [7][8]. - The new business value is projected to reach USD 5,084 million in 2025E, with a growth rate of 7.9% [7][8]. - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to be 16.3% in 2025E, reflecting a slight decrease from previous years [7][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 3.02, representing a potential upside of 24.3% from the current price of HKD 2.43 [1][2]. Core Insights - The company's Q4 2024 performance met expectations, with a continuous improvement in debt ratios. The overall market share slightly decreased, but the company is expected to benefit from Macau's ongoing recovery [2][3]. - The report highlights significant growth in net income, projecting a remarkable increase from a loss of HKD 2,009.8 million in 2023 to a profit of HKD 885.9 million in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 27,585.7% [2][3]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its competitive advantage through the performance of "上葡京" and the installation of smart gaming tables, which are expected to be completed by November this year [2][3]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Growth**: The company reported a net income of HKD 21,623.2 million in 2023, with projections of HKD 30,400.2 million in 2025, indicating a growth rate of 33.0% [2][3]. - **EBITDA**: The EBITDA for 2023 was HKD 1,727.0 million, with a forecasted increase to HKD 4,517.7 million in 2025, showing a growth rate of 14.1% [2][3]. - **Net Profit**: The net profit is expected to rise significantly, from a loss in 2023 to a profit of HKD 885.9 million in 2025, with a projected net profit margin of 2.9% [2][3]. - **Debt Ratios**: The net debt/EBITDA ratio improved from 13.7 times to 6.3 times, indicating a healthier financial position [2][3]. Market Performance - The company's overall market share in Q4 2024 was 13.5%, a slight decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous quarter [2][3]. - The report notes that the company's cash balance is approximately HKD 3,220 million, with net debt around HKD 23,200 million [2][3]. Future Outlook - The company plans to invest HKD 15-20 billion in capital expenditures starting in 2025, which includes renovations and expansions to enhance its offerings [2][3]. - The report anticipates double-digit growth in gaming revenue for January-February 2025, with the market share expected to remain stable compared to Q4 2024 [2][3].