证券研究报告 中国飞鹤 (6186 HK) 港股通 生育政策加码，婴配粉龙头有望迎来利好 华泰研究 动态点评 2025 年 3 月 14 日│中国香港 食品 今年以来，生育刺激政策正在加速落地：3 月 6 日财政部部长蓝佛安表示今 年加大对民生领域的投入力度，让居民收入更稳定，同时提出对幼儿发放育 儿补贴，建立学前教育国家资助制度；3 月 7 日国家卫生健康委员会主任雷 海潮指出今年将发放育儿补贴，国家卫健委正在会同有关部门起草相关的育 儿补贴的操作方案（据第一财经）；3 月 13 日内蒙古呼和浩特发布育儿补贴 细则（对于生育一孩/二孩/三孩及以上分别发放补贴 1/5/10 万元），3 月 1 日起实施，提供产妇 "一杯奶"生育关怀，同时，义务教育阶段二孩入学 "幼随长走、就近择优"&三孩及以上家庭孩子入学可在全市自由选择。政 策端多措并举、居民生育意愿有望提升，公司作为婴配粉龙头企业迎来利好， 维持"买入"评级。 24 年新生人口数量同比增加，生育刺激落地有望带来发展新机遇 伴随着新国标出台后中小品牌促销及去库存已步入尾声，婴配粉行业竞争趋 于理性，整体价盘逐步企稳，据国家统计局数据，24 年我国出生人口数 ...

2025 年 3 月 14 日 公司研究 24 年业绩较快增长，期待继续强化核心竞争力 ——361 度（1361.HK）2024 年业绩点评 买入（维持） 当前价：4.49 元港币 作者 分析师：姜浩 执业证书编号：S0930522010001 021-52523680 jianghao@ebscn.com 分析师：孙未未 执业证书编号：S0930517080001 021-52523672 sunww@ebscn.com 分析师：朱洁宇 执业证书编号：S0930523070004 021-52523842 zhujieyu@ebscn.com 24 年收入、归母净利润同比+19.6%、+19.5% 361 度发布 2024 年业绩。公司 2024 年实现营业收入 100.7 亿元，同比增长 19.6%， 归母净利润 11.5 亿元，同比增长 19.5%，EPS 为 0.56 元，拟每股派发末期现金红 利 0.10 港元，结合中期现金红利 0.165 港元，全年派息率为 45.0%。分上下半年来 看，2024 年上半年收入/归母净利润分别同比+19.2%/+12.2%，下半年分别同比 +20.0%/+39.2 ...

汽车 2025 年 03 月 14 日 小鹏汽车-W(9868.HK) 新款G6爆款潜力大，加速全场景智驾平权 推荐（维持） 事项： 公司举办 2025 小鹏汽车春季发布会，上市 2025 款小鹏 G6 和 2025 款小鹏 G9 两款新车，其中 2025 款小鹏 G6 共推出 3 款配置车型，售价 17.68 万~19.88 万元，2025 款小鹏 G9 同样推出 3 款配置车型，售价 24.88 万~27.88 万元。 平安观点： | | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 26855 | 30676 | 40994 | 90887 | 128262 | | YOY(%) | 28.0 | 14.2 | 33.6 | 121.7 | 41.1 | | 净利润(百万元) | -9139 | -10376 | -5580 | -1175 | 2057 | | YOY(%) | -87.9 | -13.5 | 46.2 | 79.0 | 275.1 | | 毛利率( ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China General Nuclear Power Group (1164 HK) with a target price of HKD 2.36, representing a potential upside of 55.5% from the current price of HKD 1.52 [4][5][25] Core Insights - The profit warning issued by China General Nuclear Power Group indicates a projected net profit decline of HKD 130-180 million for 2024, primarily due to one-off items such as dividend withholding tax and fair value changes from stock exchanges [1][2] - Excluding these one-off factors, the pre-tax profit from ongoing operations is expected to grow by HKD 230-280 million in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 41-50%, slightly above previous forecasts [1][2] - The company reported a significant increase in income tax expenses for the first half of 2024, attributed to changes in Kazakhstan's tax policy regarding dividend withholding tax [1] Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from HKD 7,363 million in FY23A to HKD 10,992 million in FY24E, representing a year-on-year growth rate of 49.3% [3][12] - Adjusted net profit is expected to decline from HKD 497.1 million in FY23A to HKD 443.4 million in FY24E, a decrease of 10.8% [3][12] - The company’s earnings per share (adjusted) is forecasted to decrease from HKD 6.54 in FY23A to HKD 5.83 in FY24E [3][12] Shareholder Structure - China General Nuclear Power Group holds a 56.9% stake in the company, with China Chengtong Holdings holding 10.0% [5] Stock Performance - The stock has experienced a decline of 2.6% over the past month and 7.9% over the past three months [6]

2025 年 3 月 14 日 公司研究 24 年业绩较快增长，期待继续强化核心竞争力 ——361 度（1361.HK）2024 年业绩点评 买入（维持） 当前价：4.49 元港币 作者 分析师：姜浩 执业证书编号：S0930522010001 021-52523680 jianghao@ebscn.com 分析师：孙未未 执业证书编号：S0930517080001 021-52523672 sunww@ebscn.com 分析师：朱洁宇 执业证书编号：S0930523070004 021-52523842 zhujieyu@ebscn.com | 市场数据 | | | --- | --- | | 总股本(亿股) | 20.68 | | 总市值(亿港元)： | 92.84 | | 一年最低/最高(港元)： | 3.15/4.85 | | 近 3 月换手率： | 21.4% | 股价相对走势 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 24/01 24/02 24/03 24/04 24/05 24/06 24/07 24/08 24/09 24/10 24/11 24/12 25 ...

证券研究报告 | 公司点评 gszqdatemark 2025 03 13 年 月 日 中创新航（03931.HK） 海外业务可期，入通改善流动性 2025 年 2 月 24 日，公司发布盈利预喜。根据公司初步评估，2024 年公 司净利润介于 7.86-8.74 亿元，较 2023 年的 4.37 亿元同比增长 80%- 100%。业绩增长的主要驱动因素包括： Q1 出货规模值得期待，关注海外业务。根据高工锂电，中创新航 2025Q1 动储电池出货量预计达 20GWh，同比增幅近 150%。其中，面向出口车型 的出货量预计占中创新航动力板块整体出货量的 30%以上，这可能得益 于：1）2024 年 7 月阳光电源与沙特 ALGIHAZ 成功签约当时全球最大储 能项目，容量高达 7.8GWh，中创新航为该项目供应高性能电芯；2）2024 年 11 月，阳光电源再获欧洲市场 4.4GWh 储能订单，中创新航再次为阳 光电源储能项目配套高性能电芯；3）公司和多家国际车企就新平台项目 达成合作，并助力多个国内车企实现整车出口。 2025 年 3 月 10 日起，中创新航被正式纳入港股通。3 月 9 日中创新航 在港 ...

投资逻辑 友邦业务覆盖亚太地区 18 个市场，经营及财务表现稳健。1）新 单保费与 NBV 底部周期有韧性，2023 年来重回高增长，2024 年 NBV Margin 企稳回升。2019 年开始受香港社会事件、公共卫生事件等 因素 NBV 承压，2018-2022 年 4 年 NBV 复合增速为-6%，但好于内 地其他寿险公司。在公共卫生事件因素消除、香港通关、内地预 定利率切换下 2023-24 年 NBV 重回双位数正增长，2024Q1-3 NBV 同比+20%，NBV Margin 开始企稳回升。2）得益于新业务价值的稳 定增长以及存量高价值保单的稳定摊销，营运利润实现平稳增长。 2024H1，公司税后归母营运利润同比+3.5%（固定汇率口径同比 +7%）。3）公司内含价值的成长性和可信性兼具。友邦投资回报假 设和贴现率假设根据市场收益率变动及时调整，以保证价值评估 的审慎性。且资产负债久期缺口较小，其内含价值和新业务价值 的利率敏感性远低于内地上市公司。NBV 增长稳健及营运差异优 秀，使得友邦的 ROEV 维持在较高位。4）公司资本管理政策优化， 股东回报的可预期性、稳定性提升。友邦自上市以来分红 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price yet to be specified [6]. Core Insights - The company is enhancing its product offerings with innovative urban light outdoor series and stylish functional jackets, catering to the diverse needs of young consumers [1]. - The brand is transitioning from being recognized as a global leader in down jackets to a comprehensive leader in the category, focusing on brand awareness and consumer perception [2]. - The company is leveraging smart logistics and inventory management to ensure efficient operations and quick response to market demands, which is a key competitive advantage [3]. - The revenue forecasts for FY25-27 have been slightly adjusted, with expected revenues of RMB 25.7 billion, RMB 28.6 billion, and RMB 32.2 billion respectively, alongside adjusted net profits and EPS figures [4]. Summary by Sections Product Development - The company is launching a new collection of light outdoor and functional jackets that balance style and protective features, appealing to urban and outdoor consumers [1]. Brand Strategy - The brand is focusing on enhancing its image as a leading down jacket expert through integrated marketing strategies and consumer engagement initiatives [2]. Supply Chain Management - The company has implemented a smart logistics system that manages inventory across various channels, ensuring high availability of popular products and quick replenishment [3]. Financial Projections - Adjustments to financial forecasts reflect a cautious outlook on the macro consumption environment, with revised revenue and profit expectations for the upcoming fiscal years [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Alibaba is "Buy" and is maintained [7]. Core Views - The report highlights optimism regarding Alibaba's commercial opportunities arising from its strong commitment to technology investment and the integration of AI within its ecosystem. The acceleration of commercialization in its core business, particularly through intelligent advertising tools, is expected to enhance growth [2][4]. Financial Performance - For FY2025 Q3, Alibaba reported revenue of 280.2 billion yuan, representing an 8% year-on-year increase. Non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders reached 51.3 billion yuan, up 7% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders surged by 239% to 48.9 billion yuan [4][8]. Business Segments - **Taotian Group**: The group experienced a 9% year-on-year growth in CMR, driven by the full-quarter impact of basic software service fees and increased penetration of comprehensive promotion tools. EBITA grew by 2% year-on-year, indicating stable profitability during the commercialization acceleration phase [8]. - **AIDC**: Revenue grew by 32% year-on-year, although EBITA losses expanded to 5 billion yuan, primarily due to investments aimed at user acquisition during overseas shopping festivals [8]. - **Cloud Intelligence Group**: Revenue increased by 13% year-on-year, with EBITA rising by 33%, driven by double-digit growth in public cloud services and significant increases in AI-related product usage [8]. Membership Growth - The number of 88VIP members reached 49 million, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3 million and a year-on-year increase of 19 million, suggesting that the optimization of membership benefits is driving new buyer and order growth [8]. Capital Expenditure - Capital expenditures for FY2025 Q1-Q3 were reported at 121 billion, 175 billion, and 318 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 259% in the latest quarter [8]. Profit Forecast - The report projects net profits attributable to shareholders for FY2025-2027 to be 139.6 billion, 157.6 billion, and 189.3 billion yuan, respectively [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for King’s Ray Biotechnology [3][9]. Core Views - The company is experiencing positive development across its three main segments, with an expected improvement in profitability. The joint venture Legend Biotech is ramping up production, which is anticipated to contribute profits to the parent company in 2026 [3][9]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024 is projected at $595 million, reflecting a 6.1% increase. The group net profit is expected to reach approximately $2.96 billion, marking a significant turnaround from losses, primarily due to a one-time investment gain from the merger with Legend Biotech [9]. - The adjusted net profit from continuing operations is stable at about $59.8 million, up by 2.9% [9]. - Revenue breakdown includes: - Life Sciences segment: $455 million (+10.2%), with an adjusted gross margin of 52% (+5.9 percentage points) [9]. - CDMO segment: $95 million (-13.2%), with an adjusted gross margin of $14 million [9]. - Baisjie segment: $54 million (+24.6%), with an adjusted gross margin of 36.1% (+2.8 percentage points) [9]. - The CAR-T therapy sales are projected to reach nearly $1 billion, with significant new capacity coming online [9]. Growth Catalysts - The CAR-T therapy is expected to exceed sales expectations, and a recovery in investment and financing is anticipated [9]. - The approval of the second-line MM in the U.S. is expected to drive sales growth, with CARVYKTI projected to generate $963 million in revenue for 2024, a 92.6% increase [9].