Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company and raises the target price to HKD 75.0, indicating a potential upside of 29% from the current price of HKD 58.20 [1][5][29] Core Insights - The company achieved record high revenues and adjusted net profits in Q4 2024, with revenues reaching RMB 109 billion, adjusted net profits at RMB 8.3 billion, and core business net profits at RMB 9 billion, reflecting strong growth [1][14] - The company's strategic direction and management execution are highlighted as key factors for its robust performance, with significant growth expected in its smartphone, electric vehicle, and IoT segments [1][2] - The report expresses optimism about the company's long-term value growth, supported by its ecosystem strategy and leadership positions in various business segments [1][2] Financial Performance and Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are set to grow from RMB 270.97 billion in 2023 to RMB 705.62 billion by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 19% [4][15] - Adjusted net profit is expected to increase from RMB 19.27 billion in 2023 to RMB 59.14 billion in 2027, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [4][15] - The report anticipates a significant improvement in gross margins across various segments, particularly in smartphones and IoT products, driven by cost reductions and strategic initiatives [2][15] Segment Analysis - Smartphone segment: Expected shipment volume to exceed 180 million units in 2025, with improved gross margins due to cost reductions and high-end product strategies [2][15] - IoT segment: Anticipated revenue growth exceeding 20%, driven by large appliance sales and international expansion [2][15] - Internet services: Projected to maintain stable revenue growth and high gross margins due to a growing user base [2][15] - Electric vehicle segment: Targeting sales of 350,000 units, with expectations for steady margin improvements [2][15] Valuation - The report employs a sum-of-the-parts valuation method, assigning target price-to-earnings ratios of 25.0x for smartphones, 30.0x for IoT, and 25.0x for internet services, leading to a target price of HKD 75.0 [2][16] - The current price reflects a price-to-earnings ratio of 42.1x, suggesting room for valuation expansion given the company's growth prospects [1][2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for ZTO Express is "Buy" and is maintained [7]. Core Views - ZTO Express reported a revenue growth of 15.3% year-on-year to RMB 44.28 billion for 2024, with a net profit of RMB 10.08 billion, reflecting a 12.0% increase [1][2]. - The company aims to refocus on volume and market share growth in 2025, expecting a volume increase of 20%-24%, which is above the industry growth rate [3][4]. - The company is likely to lower prices to gain market share, which may slow profit growth in the short term, but is expected to strengthen its market position in the long term [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, ZTO Express achieved a gross profit of RMB 13.72 billion, with a gross margin of 31.0% [2]. - The adjusted net profit for 2024 was RMB 10.08 billion, with a profit margin of 22.8% [2]. - The average revenue per package increased by 2.7% year-on-year to RMB 1.28, while the average cost per package rose by 1.9% to RMB 0.87 [2]. Market Position - ZTO Express handled 34 billion packages in 2024, marking a 12.6% increase, but its market share declined to 19.4%, down 3.4 percentage points year-on-year due to the abandonment of low-value packages [1][3]. - The company has seen a recovery in market share since Q3 2024 as it adjusts its operational strategies [1]. Future Projections - The net profit forecast for 2025 has been revised down by 8.2% to RMB 9.85 billion, with an adjusted net profit of RMB 10.23 billion [4]. - The target price has been adjusted to HKD 197.6 and USD 25.4, based on a PE ratio of 15.0x for 2025 [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for Kingdee International (268 HK) with a target price of HK$14.94, indicating a potential downside of 1% from the current price of HK$15.14 [1][8]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Kingdee's stock has appreciated by 94% year-to-date, outperforming the Hang Seng Index, which rose by 23%. However, the company's fundamental recovery is lagging behind this valuation increase [6]. - For the second half of 2024, Kingdee's revenue grew by 9% year-on-year to RMB 3.39 billion, which was below market expectations. The annual recurring revenue (ARR) increased by 20% to RMB 3.43 billion, also falling short of projections [6][10]. - The report notes that Kingdee's cloud service revenue grew by 10% to RMB 2.72 billion, again underperforming against market expectations [6][10]. - The management anticipates a revenue growth acceleration in 2025, projecting a 14% increase compared to the 9% growth in the second half of 2024, supported by a low base and macroeconomic recovery [6][10]. Summary by Sections Investment Rating and Price Target - The target price has been raised from HK$6.38 to HK$14.94, reflecting a significant increase of 134% [2][12]. - The report adjusts the target price-to-sales (P/S) ratio to 7.0, aligning it with global peers in the ERP sector [12][13]. Financial Performance - Kingdee's revenue for 2025 is projected at RMB 7.15 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 14% [9][10]. - The report anticipates that Kingdee will achieve a breakeven point in operating profit and net profit in 2025, despite downward adjustments in earnings forecasts due to underperformance in 2H24 [6][10]. Earnings Forecast Adjustments - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025 and 2026 have been revised downwards to RMB 0.05 and RMB 0.11, respectively, reflecting a decrease of 61% and 36% from previous estimates [2][10]. - The ARR for 2025 is expected to grow by 22%, while the growth rate is projected to slow to 20% in 2026 [7][10]. Market Comparisons - Kingdee's market capitalization stands at approximately US$6.99 billion, with a three-month average daily trading volume of US$89 million [1][12]. - The report compares Kingdee's performance with global peers, noting that its current valuation is in line with similar companies that have larger customer bases and stronger profitability [8][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for ZTO Express (02057) [2][6] Core Insights - ZTO Express reported a revenue of 44.28 billion CNY for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15.3%, with adjusted net profit reaching 10.15 billion CNY, up 12.7% [6] - The company aims to prioritize market share, indicating an expectation of intensified price competition in the industry [6] - The report has adjusted profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026, now predicting adjusted net profits of 9.904 billion CNY and 10.95 billion CNY respectively, down from previous estimates [6] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections for ZTO Express are as follows: - 2023: 38.419 billion CNY - 2024: 44.281 billion CNY - 2025E: 49.173 billion CNY - 2026E: 55.692 billion CNY - 2027E: 62.710 billion CNY - Year-on-year growth rates for revenue are projected at 9%, 15%, 11%, 13%, and 13% respectively [5] - Adjusted net profit forecasts are: - 2023: 9.006 billion CNY - 2024: 10.150 billion CNY - 2025E: 9.904 billion CNY - 2026E: 10.950 billion CNY - 2027E: 12.525 billion CNY - Year-on-year growth rates for adjusted net profit are projected at 32%, 13%, -2%, 11%, and 14% respectively [5] Market Position and Performance - In 2024, ZTO Express achieved a business volume of 34 billion packages, a year-on-year increase of 12.6%, with a market share of 19.4% [6] - The average revenue per package for 2024 was 1.30 CNY, with a slight increase in Q4 to 1.32 CNY [6] - The company maintains a strong competitive position, with the highest market share and service efficiency among peers [6]

Investment Rating - The report does not specify a clear investment rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 39.43 million HKD for 2024, with a net loss of 798.13 million HKD, which is an increase of 50 million HKD compared to the previous year [7] - The core product, CT053 (赛恺泽), received approval for market launch, with 154 orders received from 华东医药 as of December 31, 2024 [7] - CT041, a CAR-T candidate for advanced gastric cancer, achieved its primary endpoint in a confirmatory Phase II clinical trial and is expected to submit a New Drug Application (NDA) in the first half of 2025 [7] - The company is advancing its universal CAR-T product pipeline, with multiple candidates under development [7] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 1.5 billion HKD, 4.3 billion HKD, and 8.3 billion HKD respectively, driven by the commercialization of CT053 and CT041 [8][9] Financial Summary - Revenue and growth rates are projected as follows: - 2024A: 39.43 million HKD - 2025E: 149.98 million HKD (growth rate: 280.42%) - 2026E: 429.94 million HKD (growth rate: 186.67%) - 2027E: 829.89 million HKD (growth rate: 93.02%) [2][9] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to improve from a loss of 798.13 million HKD in 2024 to a loss of 402.37 million HKD in 2027 [2][9] - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to improve from -1.39 HKD in 2024 to -0.70 HKD in 2027 [2][9] - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to shift from -75.53% in 2024 to 67.22% in 2027 [2][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company, ZTO Express, reported a revenue of 44.28 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.3%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 8.82 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.8%, while the adjusted net profit was 10.15 billion yuan, up by 12.7% [4][13][22] - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 12.92 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 21.7%, with a net profit of 2.38 billion yuan, up 8.7% [4][13] - The express delivery volume for the company reached 34 billion pieces in 2024, a growth of 12.6%, contributing to a total express business revenue of 40.95 billion yuan, which is a 15.4% increase [5][14] Company Overview - The latest closing price of the company's stock is 172.2 HKD, with a total market capitalization of 138.5 billion HKD. The company has a debt-to-asset ratio of 32.13% and a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.63 [3] - The largest shareholder is ZTO Lms Holding Limited [3] Financial Performance - The company is expected to continue focusing on service quality, business scale, and profitability balance. For 2025, capital expenditure is projected to be around 5.2 billion yuan, with business volume anticipated to reach 40.8-42.2 billion pieces, reflecting a growth of 20%-24% [7][23] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 54.5 billion yuan, 62 billion yuan, and 67.5 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 23.1%, 13.8%, and 8.9% respectively. Net profits for the same period are expected to be 10.81 billion yuan, 11.88 billion yuan, and 12.86 billion yuan, with growth rates of 22.6%, 9.9%, and 8.2% [7][23] Cost Management - The company has successfully reduced core costs, with unit transportation costs decreasing by 8.9% to 0.41 yuan due to improved routing and loading rates. Overall, core costs have been further reduced [6][18] - The gross profit for 2024 increased by 17.6% to 13.72 billion yuan, with a gross margin improvement of 0.6 percentage points to 31.0% [19]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company, ZTO Express, reported a revenue of 44.28 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.3%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 8.82 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.8%, while the adjusted net profit was 10.15 billion yuan, up 12.7% year-on-year [4][13][22] - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 12.92 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.7%, with a net profit of 2.38 billion yuan, up 8.7% [4][13] - The express delivery volume for the company reached 34 billion pieces in 2024, a growth of 12.6%, contributing to a total express business revenue of 40.95 billion yuan, which is a 15.4% increase [5][14] - The company has focused on improving efficiency and reducing core costs, with unit transportation costs decreasing by 8.9% to 0.41 yuan [6][18] Financial Performance - The company forecasts a capital expenditure of approximately 5.2 billion yuan for 2025, continuing a downward trend, with expected business volume growth of 20%-24% [7][23] - Projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 54.50 billion yuan, 62.00 billion yuan, and 67.51 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 23.1%, 13.8%, and 8.9% respectively. The net profit for the same period is expected to be 10.81 billion yuan, 11.88 billion yuan, and 12.86 billion yuan, with growth rates of 22.6%, 9.9%, and 8.2% [7][10][23] - The company's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025-2027 are projected to be 11.6X, 10.6X, and 9.8X, indicating a relatively low valuation [7][23] Operational Efficiency - The company has seen an increase in high-value packages and a reduction in core costs, with the overall gross profit rising by 17.6% to 13.72 billion yuan, and the gross margin improving by 0.6 percentage points to 31.0% [19][22]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" [7]. Core Views - The company has shown preliminary signs of reversing its difficulties, with a positive outlook for 2025. The revenue for 2024 is projected at $4.479 billion, a year-over-year increase of 3%, while the net profit after tax is expected to reach $366 million, significantly up from $122 million in 2023 [1][4]. - The company is expected to achieve strong growth in 2025, with a projected net profit of $498 million, reflecting a substantial increase from the previous year [4][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved copper production and sales of 320,000 and 300,000 tons respectively, with a C1 cost of $1.51 per pound. The production increase and cost reduction were attributed to the commissioning of a second pit [2]. - The Kinsevere copper mine produced 45,000 tons in 2024, with a C1 cost of $3.26 per pound, benefiting from reduced external ore purchases [2]. - The company reported a significant increase in net profit for 2024, reaching $162 million compared to just $9.5 million in 2023, despite facing cobalt impairment losses of $53 million [3][6]. Production Guidance - The company has provided guidance for 2025, expecting copper production to rise significantly across its mines, with the LB copper mine projected to produce between 360,000 to 400,000 tons and the Kinsevere mine expected to produce between 63,000 to 69,000 tons [2]. - The C1 costs for the LB mine are anticipated to increase to between $1.50 and $1.70 per pound due to rising employee benefits, while the Kinsevere mine's costs are expected to decrease to between $2.50 and $2.90 per pound [2]. Valuation and Price Target - The target price for the company's stock has been raised to HKD 3.31 from HKD 2.43, based on a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 10.4x for 2025, reflecting a 20% premium over comparable companies with an average PE of 8.7x [4][8]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be $0.04 in 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) expected to reach 13.58% [6][18].