证券研究报告 淮河能源 (600575 CH) 保底股息率 5.2%的煤电一体化标的 2025 年 12 月 04 日│中国内地 发电 近期煤价波动上行、各省正开展 2026 年年度电力市场化交易工作，火电公 司 2026 年盈利预期不确定性较高，市场对相对稳健的高股息标的青睐度提 升。我们看好淮河能源原因如下：1）公司承诺 2025-27 年不低于 75%分红 比例且 DPS 不低于 0.19 元，最低 DPS 对应保底股息率 5.2%；2）煤价小 幅上行阶段，煤电一体化公司燃煤成本上涨压力显著小于低比例长协煤的纯 电力公司；3）集团优质资产注入有望提升公司资产规模和盈利能力。维持 "买入"评级。 集团优质资产注入有望同时提升公司资产规模和盈利能力 2025/4/17，公司以 11.94 亿元受让国开基金持有的电力集团 10.7%股权； 2025/11/21，公司发股及现金购买淮南矿业集团持有电力集团 89.3%股权的 发股购买资产注册已获得证监会批复。按照电力集团 2024 年财务数据测算， 本次集团资产注入的 PE/PB 为 12.4/1.1x。截至 2025 年 9 月底，电力集团 的在运权益煤电装机 ...

| 市场数据：2025 年 12 | | 月 3 | 日 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元/股）： | | | | 1.65 | | 年内最高/最低（元/ | | | 2.14/1.25 | | | 股）： | | | | | | 流通 股/总股本（亿 A | | | | 218.18/218.18 | | 股）： | | | | | | 流通 A | 股市值（亿元）： | | | 359.99 | | 总市值（亿元）： | | | | 359.99 | 基础数据：2025 年 9 月 30 日 | 基本每股收益(元/股)： | 0.01 | | --- | --- | | 摊薄每股收益(元/股)： | 0.01 | | 每股净资产(元/股)： | 2.39 | | 净资产收益率(%)： | 0.75 | | 资料来源：常闻 | | 邮箱：hubo1@sxzq.com 炼焦煤 永泰能源（600157.SH） 增持-A(维持) 海则滩煤矿工程进度提前，新回购案有望助推公司价值回归 2025 年 12 月 4 日 公司研究/公司快报 投资要点 事件 1：近日公 ...

2025 年 12 月 04 日 永新光学(603297.SH) 多元业务布局半导体光学，高端显微镜 持续推进 "十五五"规划强调高端仪器技术攻关，公司参与重大专项 "十五五"规划提出采取超常规措施，全链条推动集成电路、工业母 机、高端仪器等重点领域关键核心技术攻关取得决定性突破。公司在 承接多个国家"十三五""十四五"规划重大科技项目并参与"十五 五"规划的重大专项上，与国家战略同频，开展新一期战略规划。公 司将加速进行高端科学仪器、高端医疗设备的国产替代，加快全球化 进程并建立国际供应链，进一步开拓核心光学产品在生命科学、创新 医疗、人工智能及半导体方面的应用。 高端显微镜比例继续提升，2H25 显微镜业务预计将恢复性增长 2025 年上半年，公司再次牵头国家重大仪器专项《多模态纳米分辨 率显微镜》，攻关亚 2nm 超分辨成像技术及产业化，牵头的另一项国 家重大专项《眼科手术导航显微镜》顺利通过中期验收，行业内承担 国家级科技项目数量领先。公司依托技术优势错位竞争，高端显微镜 继续保持增长，占显微镜销售比例提升至 40%以上，并获取潜在项目 数千万元。随着设备更新资金的逐步落地，已提前确定的意向订单将 快 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The two major shareholders are increasing their stakes, demonstrating confidence in the company's medium to long-term development [6] - The company is a global leader in the fiberglass industry, with a significant production capacity and a strong historical growth trajectory [6] - The entry into the high-end electronic fabric sector is expected to provide substantial growth opportunities due to increasing demand [6] - Profit forecasts indicate a recovery in net profit and earnings per share over the next few years, with a projected net profit of 3.32 billion, 3.88 billion, and 4.23 billion RMB for 2025 to 2027 [6] Financial Summary - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 15.86 billion RMB in 2024 to 21.65 billion RMB in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of 9.72% from 2014 to 2024 [5][6] - The net profit is expected to recover from 2.45 billion RMB in 2024 to 4.23 billion RMB in 2027, reflecting a significant growth rate [5][6] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase from 0.61 RMB in 2024 to 1.06 RMB in 2027 [5][6] - The company maintains a healthy return on equity (ROE), projected to rise from 8.14% in 2024 to 11.30% in 2027 [5][6]

[Table_Page] 公司深度研究|电子 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 影石创新（688775.SH） 全景无人机破局者—消费级航拍新标杆 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： 盈利预测： | [Table_ 单位 Finance] :人民币百万元 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 3,636 | 5,574 | 8,679 | 15,318 | 24,293 | | 增长率（ % ） | 78.2% | 53.3% | 55.7% | 76.5% | 58.6% | | EBITDA | 985 | 1,098 | 1,395 | 2,404 | 3,479 | | 归母净利润 | 830 | 995 | 1,321 | 2,249 | 3,268 | | 增长率（ % ） | 103.7% | 19.9% | 32.8% | 70.3% | 45.3% | | EPS（元/股） | 2.30 | 2.76 | 3.29 | 5.61 | 8. ...

Investment Rating - The report gives an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Views - The company is deeply engaged in the precision slide rail sector and is expanding its server slide rail business, leveraging the growth of AI [8][14]. - The demand for household appliances is steadily increasing, and there is a high growth in the domestic demand for server slide rails [8][49]. - The company has a comprehensive product layout and is actively expanding its server slide rail offerings [8][73]. - The earnings forecast indicates a potential for rapid growth in performance due to the expansion of the server slide rail business and the gradual release of production capacity [8][26]. Summary by Sections 1. Deep Engagement in Precision Slide Rail Sector - The company specializes in the R&D, production, and sales of precision slide rails, primarily used in household appliances and servers, establishing stable partnerships with major clients [13][14]. - The management team has extensive industry experience, with all members having over ten years in the company [20]. - The company has received numerous honors and qualifications, including being recognized as a high-tech enterprise and a "little giant" in Jiangsu Province [13]. 2. Stable Expansion of Household Slide Rails and High Growth in Server Slide Rail Demand - The company is positioned within the precision metal connection component industry, with significant growth opportunities in both household and server slide rails [40][49]. - The domestic refrigerator market is expected to grow, with retail sales reaching 133.3 billion yuan in 2023, driven by high-end product trends and government policies [49][62]. - The server slide rail market is projected to grow significantly, with the global server market expected to reach 588 billion USD by 2029, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 18.8% from 2024 to 2029 [64][70]. 3. Comprehensive Product Layout and Active Expansion of Server Slide Rail Offerings - The company offers a wide range of slide rail products, with over 700 models, including approximately 600 household slide rails and about 100 server slide rails [73]. - The server slide rails are designed for high load capacities, ranging from 40kg to 130kg, and include features such as drop-locking and tool-free installation [73][75]. - The company is focused on high-end slide rail solutions, which are increasingly used in large-capacity and multi-temperature refrigerators, enhancing its market penetration [57][58]. 4. Earnings Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 0.77 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year decrease of 5.4%, followed by growth in subsequent years [1][26]. - The projected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 28, 26, and 22 times, respectively, indicating a favorable valuation as the company expands its server slide rail business [1][26].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Zhejiang Dingli, with a current price of 59.34 RMB and a fair value of 72.15 RMB [7]. Core Views - Zhejiang Dingli is considered one of the most elastic stocks in the recovery of industrial products in Europe and the United States. The company has a high overseas revenue proportion, with 71% of its revenue expected to come from overseas in 2024. The report anticipates a significant rebound in North American high machinery sales in 2026, similar to the high growth seen in excavators in 2025. The company has substantial room for market share growth, and its valuation remains low compared to peers, with a PE-TTM percentile of only 37% since 2021 [7][9][10]. Financial Forecast - The projected financials for Zhejiang Dingli are as follows: - Revenue is expected to grow from 6,312 million RMB in 2023 to 10,817 million RMB in 2027, with growth rates of 15.9%, 23.6%, 9.7%, 10.6%, and 14.2% respectively [2]. - EBITDA is forecasted to increase from 2,036 million RMB in 2023 to 3,336 million RMB in 2027 [2]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise from 1,867 million RMB in 2023 to 2,686 million RMB in 2027, with growth rates of 48.5%, -12.8%, 17.0%, 19.8%, and 17.7% [2]. - EPS is projected to grow from 3.69 RMB in 2023 to 5.31 RMB in 2027 [2]. - The report suggests a valuation of 16x PE for 2026, leading to a fair value of 72.15 RMB per share [7][45]. Long-term Perspective - The report indicates that the demand for high machinery in overseas markets has shown signs of recovery after two years of decline. Key indicators, such as North American excavator sales, have improved significantly, with a recovery from a year-on-year decline of 19% in April 2025 to a growth of 42% by September 2025. This suggests a synchronized recovery in the high machinery cycle [10][11]. Short-term Indicators - The report highlights a strong correlation between Zhejiang Dingli's revenue and the export data of electric forklifts and high machinery from Zhejiang Province to North America. The increase in export figures in 2025 compared to 2024 reflects a recovery in industry beta, indicating positive short-term trends for the company [35][36]. Market Performance - Despite the challenging market conditions, Zhejiang Dingli has outperformed its U.S. competitors, with a year-on-year revenue increase of 3% in Q3 2025, while competitors like Terex and Haulotte experienced declines of 30% and 12% respectively [22]. Valuation Comparison - The report notes that while U.S. peers have seen significant stock price recoveries in 2025, Zhejiang Dingli's valuation has remained relatively unchanged, indicating potential for upward valuation adjustments [43][44].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 101 CNY, while the current price is 75.50 CNY [3]. Core Insights - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 3.184 billion CNY, reflecting a growth of 1.88%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 203 million CNY, down 33.91% year-on-year [2][3]. - The decline in net profit is attributed to a high base effect from the previous year, where a significant asset disposal contributed approximately 93 million CNY to the net profit [3]. - The company has entered the respiratory and anesthesia equipment sector through the acquisition of Ningbo Shengyu Rui Medical Equipment Co., which is expected to enhance its product offerings and market penetration [3]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported: - Total revenue of 3.184 billion CNY (+1.88%) - Net profit of 203 million CNY (-33.91%) - Non-recurring net profit of 183 million CNY (-18.79%) [2]. - In Q3 2025, the company achieved: - Revenue of 1.084 billion CNY (+0.10%) - Net profit of 75 million CNY (-48.47%) - Non-recurring net profit of 65 million CNY (+2.00%) [2]. - Financial projections for 2024A to 2027E indicate a gradual increase in total revenue from 4.264 billion CNY in 2024 to 5.332 billion CNY in 2027, with corresponding net profits expected to rise from 385 million CNY to 395 million CNY [2][3]. Valuation Metrics - The projected P/E ratios for 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 65, 59, and 52 respectively, while the P/B ratios are expected to be 3.6, 3.4, and 3.3 [2][3]. - The report estimates the company's overall valuation at 26.8 billion CNY based on DCF modeling [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [23]. Core Insights - The company's domestic business is experiencing temporary pressure, while its overseas operations are entering a phase of realization of results. For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 1.69 billion yuan, a decrease of 22.52%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 134 million yuan, down 69.32% [1][7]. - In Q3 2025, the company recorded a revenue of 445 million yuan, a decline of 26.66%, and a net loss of 55 million yuan, compared to a profit of 80 million yuan in the same period last year [1][7]. Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 3,065 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 10.8%. However, for 2025, revenue is expected to drop to 2,223 million yuan, reflecting a decline of 27.5% [3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 562 million yuan in 2024, with a significant drop to 162 million yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year decrease of 71.2% [3]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to decrease from 1.20 yuan in 2024 to 0.35 yuan in 2025 [3]. Business Strategy and Market Position - The company is actively optimizing its operations in response to domestic market pressures, including cash flow management and divesting from less profitable segments. It aims to enhance operational efficiency and align its product matrix with policy directions to capture market opportunities in grassroots testing capabilities [7]. - The international business is gradually entering a growth phase, with steady contributions from the international department and the U.S. subsidiary. The company has established a local production capacity in the U.S. and is focusing on expanding its market share in North America, particularly in toxicology and respiratory testing [7]. Valuation and Price Target - The report estimates the company's overall valuation at 13.1 billion yuan, corresponding to a target price of approximately 28 yuan per share, based on a discounted cash flow (DCF) model [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for BYD (002594.SZ) with a current price of 95.05 CNY [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in wholesale sales, with a month-on-month growth of 8.7% in November, driven by strong overseas sales performance [8]. - The company is expected to see revenue growth from 777.1 billion CNY in 2024 to 1,104.5 billion CNY in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 12.6% [2]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to rise from 40.3 billion CNY in 2024 to 58.6 billion CNY in 2027, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [2]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue Forecast: - 2024: 777.1 billion CNY - 2025: 866.5 billion CNY - 2026: 981.3 billion CNY - 2027: 1,104.5 billion CNY - Growth Rates: 29.0% in 2024, 11.5% in 2025, 13.3% in 2026, 12.6% in 2027 [2]. - Net Profit Forecast: - 2024: 40.3 billion CNY - 2025: 37.2 billion CNY - 2026: 47.5 billion CNY - 2027: 58.6 billion CNY - Growth Rates: 34.0% in 2024, -7.5% in 2025, 27.4% in 2026, 23.4% in 2027 [2]. - Earnings Per Share (EPS): - 2024: 4.42 CNY - 2025: 4.09 CNY - 2026: 5.21 CNY - 2027: 6.43 CNY [2]. - Price-to-Earnings (PE) Ratio: - 2025: 23 - 2026: 18 - 2027: 15 [2]. - Price-to-Book (PB) Ratio: - 2025: 3.3 - 2026: 3.2 - 2027: 2.7 [2]. Sales Performance - In November, BYD's wholesale sales of new energy vehicles reached 480,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 5.3% but a month-on-month increase of 8.7% [8]. - Cumulative wholesale sales from January to November totaled 4.131 million units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10.4% [8]. - The export volume of new energy vehicles in November was 132,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 325.9% and a month-on-month increase of 57.2% [8].