证券研究报告 京东集团-SW (9618 HK/JD US) 2Q25 前瞻：电商主站增长稳健，外卖 投入加码影响短期利润 华泰研究 更新报告 2025 年 7 月 11 日│中国香港/美国 互联网 得益于以旧换新政策对带电品类销售的持续带动，我们预计 2Q25 京东零售 业绩将表现稳健，板块收入及利润均将延续双位数增长，但外卖等新业务的 投入预计将对集团利润释放造成一定压力。我们预计 2Q25 京东外卖投入量 级为百亿元人民币，预计集团 2Q25 调整后净利润 43.6 亿元，同比下滑 70.0%。考虑到外卖新用户与京东主站带电品类消费者的画像或有一定差异 性，因而我们预计外卖业务对京东电商业务的协同与交叉销售潜力或仍需一 定时间逐步释放，建议持续关注用户留存效果及协同进展。维持"买入"。 2Q25 前瞻：预计收入延续双位数稳健增长 我们预计京东集团 2Q25 总收入同增 15.6 %至 3,370 亿元（1Q25：+15.8% yoy），收入增速在以旧换新行动助力下或延续双位数表现。我们预计京东 零售分部收入同比增长 16.5 %至 2,995 亿元，反映出带电品类在以旧换新 政策帮助下的稳健增长与日百品 ...

证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 07 月 11 日 京东集团-SW（09618.HK）25Q2 前瞻 Q2 零售收入维持稳健增长，外卖新业务加大投入 我们预计 25Q2 京东集团总收入同比+15.5%，Non-gaap 归母净利润约 45 亿 元。Q2 预计 GMV 及零售收入预计维持双位数较快增长，带电及日百类均增势 稳健，零售经营利润率同比保持平稳；外卖新业务快速增长，集团利润短期受 到外卖加大投入影响，预计未来将逐步加强外卖与主业协同。长期看好公司自 营壁垒下的增长韧性以及供应链强议价能力下的利润提升空间，维持"强烈推 荐"评级。 风险提示：宏观经济风险；行业竞争加剧；外卖投入超预期。 财务数据与估值 | 会计年度 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主营收入(百万元) | 1084662 | 1158819 | 1303782 | 1317688 | 1361300 | | 同比增长 | 4% | 7% | 13% | 1% | 3% | | Nongaap 归 母 ...

华福证券 公 司 研 究 公 司 康耐特光学（02276.HK） 25H1 利润高增，XR 业务兑现在即 投资要点： 公司发布 2025H1 正面盈利预告，利润高增 公司预告 2025 上半年归母净利润同比增长不少于 30%。增长主要得益于高 折射率和功能型产品的强劲销售，以及有利的产品组合推动平均售价提升， 延续了 21 年以来利润复合增速超 30%的强劲势头。 传统主业结构升级，盈利能力持续兑现 动 态 跟 踪 高折射率产品壁垒高，份额稳固，公司是国内少数能够生产 1.74 高折射率 镜片的企业，深度绑定上游核心原料供应商日本三井化学，技术壁垒和成 本优势显著。随着国内高度近视人群的增长及消费升级，高折镜片渗透率 仍有较大提升空间，公司作为龙头将持续受益。C2M 模式提升盈利，公司 C2M 定制化生产模式提升客户服务能力和交付效率的同时，也将显著提高 客单价和整体毛利率。定制镜片的毛利率显著高于标准镜片，其收入占比 的提升是驱动公司盈利提升的重要因素。 XR 业务蓄势待发，打开第二成长曲线 XR 业务方面，在与美国多家头部企业在内的多个全球领先的科技和消费电 子企业持续合作的同时，公司也积极拓展与其他国内 ...

公司研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 极兔速递（01519.HK）重大事项点评 推荐（维持） Q2 东南亚件量同比高增 66%，持续看好公 司三市场齐发力 ❖ 极兔公告二季度经营数据，东南亚件量同比高增 66%。 Q2 集团总日均单量 8120 万票，同比+23.5%；其中东南亚日均单量 1850 万票， 同比高增 66%，中国区 Q2 业务量增速 14.7%，日均单量达 6170 万票，新市 场 Q2 件量增速 23.7%，日均单量 98 万票。上半年合计，集团日均总单量 7690 万，同比+26%，东南亚同比+57%，中国区+19%，新市场+21%。 ❖ Tiktok 东南亚电商增长势头强劲 根据 Momentum Works 最新发布的《2025 东南亚电商报告》，2024 年东南亚平 台电商总 GMV 达到 1284 亿美元，区域市场由 Shopee、Lazada 和 TikTok Shop 三大平台主导。其中 Shopee 以 668 亿美元列首位，占据 52%市场份额； TikTok Shop 增长强劲，以 226 亿美元位居第二，Lazada 以 180 亿美元排名第 三，Tokopedia 以 1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price not specified [4]. Core Viewpoints - The company expects a year-on-year increase of no less than 30% in net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2025, driven by strong sales growth of high refractive index and functional products, leading to an increase in average selling prices [1]. - The company is one of the few manufacturers capable of producing resin lenses with a refractive index of 1.74, and its C2M model effectively ensures the delivery efficiency of customized glasses [1]. - The company plans to invest approximately $4 million to build an automated resin lens production line in Japan, aimed at enhancing its production capacity for high-end customized lenses and improving supply chain resilience [2]. - The new production line is expected to increase annual production capacity by 20% compared to existing facilities and will help mitigate risks associated with trade tensions between China and the U.S. [2]. - The company is actively engaging with leading global technology and consumer electronics firms in its XR (Extended Reality) business, preparing for potential mass production of AR and AI glasses [3]. - The establishment of a national-level R&D center will further strengthen the company's innovation capabilities and project management [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company forecasts a net profit of no less than 271 million yuan for the first half of 2025, reflecting a robust growth trajectory [1]. - Revised profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are 560 million, 670 million, and 790 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 31X, 26X, and 22X [4]. Production and Supply Chain - The new Japanese production line is expected to enhance the company's ability to respond to customer needs in the Asia-Pacific region and improve overall production cost efficiency [2]. - The diversified production base is anticipated to strengthen the company's resilience against geopolitical uncertainties and currency fluctuations [2]. Research and Development - The company is committed to continuous investment in R&D, focusing on innovative products with varying refractive indices and functionalities [3]. - The establishment of an XR R&D center is part of the company's strategy to enhance its technological capabilities and foster collaboration with industry leaders [3].

证 券 研 究 报 告 康耐特光学（02276.HK）跟踪分析报告 强推（维持） Meta 收购依视路约 3%股份，重视智能眼镜 产业链机会 事项： ❖ 根据 Wind 资讯，Meta 以当前市价购入依视路近 3%的股份，价值约 30 亿欧 元（约 252 亿人民币）；而且之后可能考虑追加投资，将持股比例提升至 5%左 右。 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 2,061 | 2,498 | 2,982 | 3,554 | | 同比增速(%) | 16.1% | 21.2% | 19.4% | 19.2% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 428 | 556 | 695 | 862 | | 同比增速(%) | 31.0% | 29.9% | 24.9% | 24.1% | | 每股盈利(元) | 1.00 | 1.16 | 1.45 | 1.80 | | 市盈率(倍) | 36.2 | 31.4 | 25.1 | 20 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The report provides an in-depth analysis of the company's sustainable growth logic in the "at-home dining" market, addressing three key questions: how the scale of 10,000 stores translates into competitive barriers, how to capture opportunities in a fragmented market, and how supply chain and channel innovations create differentiated advantages [8] - The company has established a leading position with a store count of 10,150, optimizing its cost structure through a vertical supply chain [8][11] - The "at-home dining" market is experiencing rapid growth, with a projected CAGR of 20.7% from 2022 to 2027, indicating significant opportunities in lower-tier markets [8][31] - The company employs a strategy of explosive products, membership ecosystems, and channel innovations to build a competitive moat [8] Market Data - As of July 9, 2025, the company's current price is HKD 3.39, with a market capitalization of approximately HKD 8,999 million [5] - The company has a retail market share of 3.0% in the "at-home dining" segment, ranking first in China [38] Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of RMB 64.70 billion in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 6.17% [16] - The projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are RMB 71.83 billion, RMB 80.36 billion, and RMB 90.80 billion, respectively [9] - The net profit for 2024 was RMB 2.31 billion, with forecasts of RMB 3.40 billion, RMB 3.96 billion, and RMB 4.63 billion for the following years [9] Competitive Advantages - The company has optimized its product offerings and channels, with a focus on explosive products and a robust membership system, resulting in a registered membership of 41.3 million by the end of 2024 [8][58] - The company has established six production facilities to enhance its supply chain capabilities, which helps in cost optimization and product quality [50][52] Growth Strategy - The company plans to add 10,000 new stores over the next five years, focusing on expanding into lower-tier markets [57] - The establishment of a new production base in Hainan is expected to enhance supply chain efficiency and support the company's growth objectives [57]

上 市 公 司 交通运输 2025 年 07 月 10 日 中远海运国际 (00517) —— 主业受益船舶更新周期，高派息率构筑护城河 报告原因：首次覆盖 买入（首次评级） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 07 月 09 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港币） | 5.64 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 8597.27 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 5.73/3.45 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 82.68 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 1,465.97 | | 汇率（人民币/港币） | 1.0973 | 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： -8% 92% 07/09 08/09 09/09 10/09 11/09 12/09 01/09 02/09 03/09 04/09 05/09 06/09 07/09 HSCEI 中远海运国际 资料来源：Bloomberg 相关研究 证券分析师 闫海 A0230519010004 yanhai@swsresearch.com 联系人 王晨鉴 (8621)23297818× wangcj@swsresearch.com 财务数据及盈 ...

2025 年 7 月 10 日 | 沈嘉婕 | | | --- | --- | | H70455@capital.com.tw | | | 目标价(港币) | 22 | 公司基本资讯 | 产业别 | | 汽车 | | --- | --- | --- | | H 股价(2025/07/9) | | 17.00 | | 恒生指数(2025/07/9) | | 23,892.3 | | 股价 12 个月高/低 | | 19.97/7.33 | | 总发行股数(百万) | | 10,084.17 | | H 股数(百万) | | 10,084.17 | | H 市值(亿元) | | 1,352.41 | | | | Proper Glory | | 主要股东 | | Holding | | | | Inc.(25.24%) | | 每股净值(元) | | 8.71 | | 股价/账面净值 | | 1.95 | | 一个月 | 三个月 一年 | | | 股价涨跌(%) -1.11% | 29.11% 97.11% | | 近期评等 | 出刊日期 | 前日收盘 | 评等 | | --- | --- | --- | | 2 ...

上 市 公 司 轻工制造 2025 年 07 月 10 日 康耐特光学 (02276) ——2025H1 正面盈利预告点评：产品结构升级带动利润 超预期，XR 业务卡位优势显著 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 | 投资要点： | | --- | 财务数据及盈利预测 | | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 1760 | 2061 | 2403 | 2790 | 3248 | | 同比增长率（%） | 13 | 17 | 17 | 16 | 16 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 327 | 428 | 550 | 682 | 840 | | 同比增长率（%） | 32 | 31 | 29 | 24 | 23 | | 每股收益（元/股） | 0.77 | 1.00 | 1.15 | 1.42 | 1.75 | | 净资产收益率（%） | 23.44 | 27.01 | 27.42 | 26.80 | 26.49 | | 市盈率 | 47.6 | 36.3 | 31.8 ...