证券研究报告 先进封装：TCB 获 HBM4 订单，C2W 方案进入量产准备 先进封装进展方面，集团 TCB 方案在存储领域凭借更优良率获得竞争优势。 3Q25，HBM4 12H TCB 方案率先获多家 HBM 厂商订单，有望保持主要供 应商地位。公司专有 AOR 技术也为 HBM16H 及以上提供了可扩展性。逻 辑领域，C2S 方案继续赢得客户 POR 订单，有望获领先晶圆代工厂 OSAT 伙伴的大量后续订单。用于 C2W 的 TCB 方案已成功通过一家领先晶圆代 工厂的最终验证，准备进入量产。混合键合方面，集团 3Q25 继续出货 HB 工具，第二代方案具备竞争力，并正与关键客户合作评估。CPO 领域，集 团继续主导 800G 收发器市场，并参与 1.6T 方案的合作。SMT 的 AP 方案 Q3 订单增长强劲，获 IDM 和 OSAT 用于基站 RF 模块的 SiP 订单。此外， SMT 也获得来自领先晶圆代工厂和 OSAT 的智能手机相关订单。我们认为 先进封装在大客户中进展顺利，相关业务需求 2026 年或将持续保持强劲， 看好 2026 年 C2W 产品量产以及存储领域的产品交付持续贡献收入增量。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [2][9]. Core Insights - The company's revenue for Q1 FY26 reached $1.523 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.1%, with the education business (including cultural tourism) generating $1.366 billion, up 8.5% year-on-year [6]. - Non-GAAP operating profit was $336 million, reflecting an 11.3% increase, with a Non-GAAP operating margin of 22%, expanding by 1.1 percentage points year-on-year [6][8]. - The company announced a shareholder return plan, distributing $190 million in cash dividends and repurchasing up to $300 million in stock [6]. Revenue and Business Performance - The overseas examination training and consulting business generated $328 million in revenue, growing 1% year-on-year, but the growth rate slowed by 19 percentage points compared to the previous year [7]. - New business segments, including K9 non-academic training and learning machines, maintained high growth, with Q1 revenue increasing 15% to $403 million [7]. - The number of teaching locations increased to 1,347, a 24% year-on-year growth, continuing the trend of high expansion [7]. Profitability and Financial Forecast - The company expects Q2 FY26 revenue to grow by 9-12% year-on-year, which is higher than the full-year guidance of 5-10% growth [9]. - Revenue forecasts for FY26-FY28 have been revised upwards to $5.38 billion, $5.98 billion, and $6.73 billion, respectively [9]. - Non-GAAP net profit estimates for FY26-FY28 have also been increased to $555 million, $610 million, and $679 million, respectively [9]. Financial Data Summary - The projected revenue and net profit figures for FY24 to FY28 are as follows: - FY24 Revenue: $4.314 billion, Net Profit: $464 million - FY25 Revenue: $4.900 billion, Net Profit: $517 million - FY26E Revenue: $5.383 billion, Net Profit: $555 million - FY27E Revenue: $5.978 billion, Net Profit: $610 million - FY28E Revenue: $6.725 billion, Net Profit: $679 million [10][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Buy" for the company with a target price of HKD 4.50 [1][10]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve revenue of HKD 1.85 billion to HKD 2.05 billion in Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 13.6% to 25.8%. The core operating profit is projected to be between HKD 65 million and HKD 75 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 44.4% to 66.7% [6][10]. - The company continues to see strong same-store sales growth and improved profitability driven by category expansion, membership system development, and refined operations. The net increase of 361 stores in Q3 aligns with the goal of adding 1,000 new stores by year-end [6][7]. - The company is focusing on product innovation and operational efficiency, with plans to launch new product lines and enhance its supply chain capabilities [9][10]. Financial Performance - Revenue projections for the upcoming years are as follows: - 2024: RMB 6.47 billion - 2025: RMB 7.78 billion - 2026: RMB 9.05 billion - 2027: RMB 10.51 billion This indicates a growth rate of 6.16% in 2024 and 20.23% in 2025 [5][15]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be: - 2024: RMB 230.56 million - 2025: RMB 441.15 million - 2026: RMB 547.95 million - 2027: RMB 676.78 million This reflects a significant increase of 91.34% in 2025 [5][15]. Business Strategy - The company is accelerating its store opening strategy, with a net increase of 361 stores in Q3 and a total of 616 stores added in the first three quarters. The Q4 is expected to see a further acceleration in openings due to seasonal demand [7][8]. - The company is enhancing its membership system, which has grown to 5.03 million registered members, and is leveraging live streaming and community events to drive customer engagement [7][9]. - The introduction of new product lines, such as the "One Sauce Makes a Dish" series, and the launch of a new dining concept, "Guoquan Stir-fry," are part of the company's strategy to diversify its offerings and attract more customers [9][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 542 HKD [7]. Core Insights - The company is expected to report total revenue of 7.583 billion HKD for 3Q25, representing a year-on-year increase of 41% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 4.774 billion HKD, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 52% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7% [1][5]. - The significant increase in trading activity is the main driver of revenue growth, with the average daily turnover (ADT) for Hong Kong stocks reaching 286.4 billion HKD, a year-on-year increase of 141% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 20% [1][2]. - The report anticipates a decrease in net investment income to 917 million HKD, a decline of 41% quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to a narrowing margin from margin investments as HIBOR decreases [4]. Summary by Sections Trading Activity - Trading-related revenue is expected to rise to 5.14 billion HKD, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 31%. The trading activity in Hong Kong stocks has reached new highs, with ADT increasing significantly [2]. - Southbound trading volume has also seen rapid growth, with a single-sided ADT of 76.2 billion HKD, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 36% [2]. IPO Market - The report estimates that IPO-related revenue for 3Q25 will be 440 million HKD, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7.5%. The number of IPOs in 3Q25 is expected to be 25, with total fundraising amounting to 73.5 billion HKD [3]. Investment Income - The expected net investment income for 3Q25 is projected to be 917 million HKD, reflecting a significant decrease due to various factors including HIBOR fluctuations [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report adjusts the net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to 17.7 billion HKD, 18.3 billion HKD, and 18.7 billion HKD respectively, with increases of 5.2%, 11.2%, and 14.1% [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has shown a significant recovery in its core business, with total revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025 reaching 20.76 billion and 6.57 billion respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 54% and 130% [4] - The company is expected to benefit from a favorable market environment in both A-shares and H-shares, leading to an upward revision of profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [4][5] - The company is anticipated to experience a "Davis Double" effect due to a recovery in fundamentals and valuation repair [4] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2025 is projected at 29.03 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 36.1% [8] - Net profit for 2025 is estimated at 10.41 billion, reflecting an 82.9% increase year-on-year [8] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve to 8.9% in 2025, up from 6.0% in 2023 [11] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 16.3 in 2023 to 9.6 in 2025, indicating a more attractive valuation [8][12] Business Segment Performance - Brokerage business net income for the first three quarters reached 4.5 billion, up 76% year-on-year, driven by a significant increase in market trading volume [5] - Investment banking revenue for the same period was 2.94 billion, a 43% increase year-on-year, with a notable rise in IPO underwriting amounts [5] - Asset management revenue also showed growth, reaching 1.1 billion, up 27% year-on-year [5] Investment Income and Cost Management - Proprietary investment income for the first three quarters was 10.3 billion, reflecting a 66% year-on-year increase [6] - The company has maintained a stable cost management strategy, with business and management expenses increasing by 25% year-on-year [6] - Interest expenses decreased by 15% year-on-year, contributing to improved profitability [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for ASMPT, indicating a positive outlook for the company's future performance [2]. Core Insights - The company's Q3 2025 revenue reached USD 468 million (HKD 3.661 billion), reflecting a year-over-year increase of 10% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 8%, aligning with previous guidance [1]. - The semiconductor solutions business generated revenue of HKD 1.88 billion (USD 240 million), up 5% year-over-year but down 7% quarter-over-quarter, driven by AI infrastructure demand and strong electric vehicle demand in China [1]. - The SMT business saw revenue of HKD 1.78 billion (USD 228 million), a 15% year-over-year increase and a 28% quarter-over-quarter increase, benefiting from AI server demand and smartphone orders [1]. - The overall new orders in Q3 amounted to USD 463 million, a 14% year-over-year increase but a 4% quarter-over-quarter decrease [1]. - The company expects Q4 2025 revenue to be between USD 470 million and USD 530 million, with a midpoint indicating a 14% year-over-year increase and a 7% quarter-over-quarter increase, exceeding market expectations [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q3 2025 adjusted net profit was HKD 1.02 billion, a 245% increase year-over-year but a 24% decrease quarter-over-quarter [1]. - The adjusted gross margin for Q3 was 37.7%, down 330 basis points year-over-year and 203 basis points quarter-over-quarter, primarily due to a decline in semiconductor business margins [1]. - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to HKD 2.03 billion, HKD 13.51 billion, and HKD 19.35 billion, reflecting significant changes in expectations [2]. Business Segments - The semiconductor solutions segment is expected to see a recovery in TCB shipments starting in Q4 2025 and into 2026, driven by demand from major clients [1]. - The SMT segment is showing a recovery trend, with new orders increasing significantly year-over-year [1]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its TCB and HBM capabilities, anticipating accelerated shipments in the upcoming quarters [1]. Market Outlook - The report highlights strong demand for AI infrastructure and electric vehicles as key growth drivers for the company's main business segments [1]. - The company is expected to benefit from cost savings following the voluntary liquidation of its Shenzhen subsidiary, which is projected to improve gross margins in the long term [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [3]. Core Insights - The company has shown significant improvement in Q3 performance, with expectations for further enhancement in Q4, driven by a focus on AI large model applications, 5G private networks, and digital operations [7]. - The company has become a "Capability Center" for Alibaba Cloud, enhancing its growth potential in AI applications and delivery [7]. - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 4.28 billion, 6.48 billion, and 7.16 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, with corresponding PE ratios of 17.3, 11.4, and 10.3 [7]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenues of 3.968 billion yuan and a net loss of approximately 177 million yuan, which narrows to about 10 million yuan when excluding one-time severance costs [1]. - The company’s total assets are approximately 9.219 billion yuan, with net assets around 6.14 billion yuan [1]. - The company’s revenue from AI large model applications and delivery surged to over 75 million yuan in Q3, marking a 26-fold year-on-year increase [7]. Market Position - The company is deeply involved in the Alibaba Cloud ecosystem, which is a leading player in the AI infrastructure market in China, holding a 23% market share in AI IaaS [10]. - The company ranks sixth in the list of large model application delivery vendors in China, indicating a strong competitive position in the market [27]. Financial Projections - The company’s total revenue is projected to be 7.913 billion yuan in 2023, with a slight decline to 6.646 billion yuan in 2024, followed by a recovery to 6.769 billion yuan in 2025 [29]. - The expected net profit for 2025 is 428 million yuan, with a projected growth of 51% in 2026 [29].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [10]. Core Insights - Baima Tea is recognized as the largest high-end tea supplier in China, with a strong brand presence and continuous enhancement of brand equity [2]. - The company's revenue has shown steady growth, with a forecasted increase in earnings per share (EPS) from 2.64 to 3.69 CNY from 2025 to 2027 [10]. - The company is expanding its offline presence significantly, with plans to add 1,500 new stores in the next 3-5 years, focusing on lower-tier cities [9]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Baima Tea is a well-known supplier of various tea products in China, including high-end Pu'er tea and other tea-related products, with its brand "Baima" recognized as a famous trademark [2]. Financial Performance - Revenue is projected to grow from 18.18 billion CNY in 2022 to 21.43 billion CNY in 2024, with net profit increasing from 1.66 billion CNY to 2.24 billion CNY during the same period [3]. - In the first half of 2025, revenue decreased by 4% to 10.63 billion CNY, primarily due to a reduction in offline stores [3]. Product Sales - In the first half of 2025, tea sales saw a slight decline of 4%, while tea utensils and tea food experienced growth of 1% and a decline of 20%, respectively [4]. - The average price of Baima tea increased from 643 CNY/kg in 2024 to 667 CNY/kg in 2025 [4]. Market Strategy - The company is enhancing its online sales through live streaming, which has contributed to an increase in online revenue share to 35.49% in the first half of 2025 [5]. - As of October 2025, the number of offline stores reached 3,730, with a net increase of 226 stores since the beginning of the year [9]. Earnings Forecast - The forecast for EPS is 2.64 CNY for 2025, with a projected PE ratio of 33, indicating a solid market position [10]. - Revenue is expected to grow steadily, with a projected increase to 2,598 million CNY by 2026 [12].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company has achieved a significant year-on-year revenue growth, with Q3 2025 revenue projected between 1.85 billion to 2.05 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 13.6% to 25.8%. The core operating profit is expected to be between 65 million to 75 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 44.4% to 66.7% [6] - The company has expanded its store count by 361 stores in Q3 2025, marking a 98% increase year-on-year, bringing the total number of stores to 10,761 [6] - The company is focusing on enhancing its brand presence in the "home dining" segment through diverse product offerings and a multi-channel approach, combining online and offline strategies [6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the company is expected to achieve revenue of 1.85 to 2.05 billion yuan, with a core operating profit of 65 to 75 million yuan [6] - The company has launched various new products, with 175 new SKUs introduced in H1 2025, and has seen a 62.8% increase in registered members, reaching approximately 50.3 million [6][8] Market Position and Strategy - The company is actively engaging in share buybacks, with a plan to repurchase up to 100 million HKD of its H-shares, indicating confidence in its long-term growth [6] - The launch of the "919 National Hot Pot Festival" and the "One Sauce to Cook" series of condiments are part of the company's strategy to enhance brand value and revenue potential [6] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025 to 2027 are 7.50 billion, 8.63 billion, and 9.88 billion yuan respectively, with net profits expected to be 450 million, 514 million, and 583 million yuan [7][8] - The company is expected to maintain a robust return on equity (ROE) of 14% to 16% over the next few years, with a decreasing price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio from 19 to 15 times [7][8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7] Core Insights - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a revenue of HKD 14.281 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of HKD 4.083 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.4% [2][4] - The company has effectively controlled expenses, divested from Yuehai Land, and maintained stable performance in its water resources business, with positive results in property and department store sectors, indicating a robust outlook for dividend growth [2][4] Financial Performance - The net financial expenses for the continuing operations significantly decreased to HKD 263 million from HKD 558 million in the previous year, demonstrating effective debt management [8] - The fair value adjustment of investment properties yielded a net gain of HKD 1 million, a recovery from a net loss of HKD 73 million in the same period last year [8] - The water supply business showed steady performance, with total water supply to Hong Kong, Shenzhen, and Dongguan increasing by 1.5% to 1.670 billion tons, generating revenue of HKD 5.242 billion, up 1.6% [8] Segment Performance - Property investment revenue increased by 4.8% to HKD 1.262 billion, driven by higher average rental rates and improved occupancy [8] - Department store operations saw a revenue decline of 45.6% to HKD 317 million, but tax profit increased by 37.3% to HKD 64 million due to prior year impairments [8] - Hotel operations revenue rose by 7.3% to HKD 505 million, although tax profit fell by 20.3% to HKD 69 million due to decreased average room rates [8] Dividend Policy - The interim dividend increased by 11.2% to HKD 0.2666 per share, maintaining a payout ratio of 65%, reflecting confidence in the company's stable dividend growth [8] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve net profits attributable to shareholders of HKD 4.540 billion, HKD 4.752 billion, and HKD 4.834 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with a consistent dividend payout ratio of 65% [8] - The estimated dividend yields based on the stock price as of October 27, 2025, are 6.32%, 6.62%, and 6.73% for the respective years, with corresponding PE ratios of 10.28x, 9.82x, and 9.66x, indicating strong dividend value [8]