证券研究报告 滔搏 (6110 HK) 港股通 滔搏公布 FY26 年第三季度运营表现：公司零售及批发业务总销售额同比高 单位数下跌，零售业务表现优于批发业务，整体终端需求仍处于弱复苏区间； 期间直营门店毛销售面积较 1HFY26 -1.3%，同比-13.4%，净关店数量环比 收窄，公司继续推进门店网络优化、谨慎开闭店策略。当前零售环境弱复苏， 市场仍处于促销氛围，但我们看好短期 NIKE 大中华区在专业运动新品、体 育营销、全域一体化经营下的零售反转，有望带动盈利能力改善，同时多品 牌布局持续发力，有望从传统零售运营向品牌管理转型，打开长期增长空间， 维持"买入"评级。 线上与线下渠道表现分化收窄，库存下降但折扣同比加深 1）流水：第三季度零售业务同比表现略弱于上半财年，主因终端消费处于 弱复苏阶段。分渠道看，受去年同期低基数影响，线下及线上渠道同比表现 分化收窄，第三季度线下/线上的同比表现较上半财年略有改善/放缓。2）经 营：线上销售占比提升，带动整体折扣率同比加深，但受益于线上线下分化 收窄，折扣加深幅度较上半财年有所改善；我们预计在期内电商大促及库存 管控节奏下，期末库存同比有所下降且周转效率保持良 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, Wei Long Mei Wei (9985.HK), as it is a leader in the spicy snack sector with a strong market position in both spicy strips and konjac products [5]. Core Insights - The company has established competitive barriers through brand recognition, product offerings, and distribution channels, leading to a projected revenue growth of 30.6% in 2025, 18.2% in 2026, and 14.9% in 2027 [5]. - The konjac product line is identified as a key growth driver, with revenue from vegetable products expected to grow significantly, surpassing traditional flavored noodle products for the first time in 2024 [5]. - The spicy snack industry is projected to reach a market size of approximately 61.5 billion RMB in 2024, with the company holding a market share of about 30% [5]. Company Analysis - The company specializes in the research, production, and sales of spicy snacks, with a diverse product range including flavored noodle products, vegetable products, and bean products [5]. - Revenue from vegetable products is expected to account for 53.8% of total revenue in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 59.1% [5]. - The company has maintained its leading position in the spicy snack market for three consecutive years, with a significant lead over its closest competitor [5]. Financial Projections - Projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 81.9 billion RMB, 96.7 billion RMB, and 111.2 billion RMB, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 14.7 billion RMB, 18.5 billion RMB, and 22.8 billion RMB [7]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to stabilize around 46.8% to 48.4% over the next few years, with net profit margins projected to increase from 18.0% in 2025 to 20.6% in 2027 [25]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company has successfully built a strong brand association with its product categories, which enhances consumer recognition and loyalty [5]. - The konjac product line is noted for its high adaptability to flavor innovations, which is expected to drive future growth [5]. - The company has optimized its distribution channels, reducing the number of distributors while increasing the average revenue per distributor by 12.8% in the first half of 2025 [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Insights - The third quarter retail sales declined significantly, and the company is awaiting the effects of Nike's adjustments in the Greater China region [4] - The company has a strong partnership with international brands like Nike and Adidas, which is expected to drive future growth [6] - The introduction of new brands is anticipated to diversify the company's offerings and expand its customer base [6] Financial Performance Summary - For FY2024, the company is projected to have a revenue of 28,933.20 million RMB, with a year-on-year growth rate of 6.87% - In FY2025, revenue is expected to decline to 27,012.90 million RMB, reflecting a decrease of 6.64% - The net profit attributable to the parent company for FY2024 is forecasted at 2,213.00 million RMB, with a growth rate of 20.49% [5] - The earnings per share (EPS) for FY2024 is estimated at 0.36 RMB, with a return on equity (ROE) of 22.47% [5] - The company’s financial metrics indicate a projected net profit of 1,287 million RMB in FY2026, with a slight growth of 0.09% [7]

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月23日 滔搏（06110.HK） 三季度流水下滑高单位数，折扣同比加深幅度收窄 |  | 公司研究·海外公司快评 |  | 纺织服饰·服装家纺 |  投资评级：优于大市（维持） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 丁诗洁 | 0755-81981391 | dingshijie@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980520040004 | | 证券分析师： | 刘佳琪 | 010-88005446 | liujiaqi@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980523070003 | 事项： 公司公告：2026 财年第三季度，集团零售及批发业务之总销售金额按年同比录得高单位数下降。截至 2025 年 11 月 30 日，直营门店毛销售面积较上一季末减少 1.3%，较去年同期减少 13.4%。 国信纺服观点：1)流水增长：2026 财年第三季度销售额同比下滑高单位数，线上渠道增速仍好于线下渠道， 但受基数影响，分化较上半年收窄；2）库存折扣：三季度末库存总额同比下降，与销售表现方向一致， 保持良 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Outperform" rating for China Railway Group Limited (00390) [1][7] Core Insights - The report highlights that the company's valuation is expected to recover due to the optimization of financial statements and the performance of its resource segment [6][18] - It emphasizes the improvement in new contract signings and the robust backlog of orders, ensuring stable long-term growth [6][16] - The resource segment is noted for enhancing profitability and cyclicality resistance, with significant reserves of copper, cobalt, and molybdenum [6][25] - The report points out the attractive dividend yield of H-shares compared to A-shares, indicating a clear discount in valuation [6][33] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for 2023 to 2027 are as follows: - 2023: 1,263.41 billion RMB - 2024: 1,160.31 billion RMB - 2025E: 1,156.73 billion RMB - 2026E: 1,164.20 billion RMB - 2027E: 1,179.18 billion RMB - The expected growth rates are: - 2023: +9.45% - 2024: -8.16% - 2025E: -0.31% - 2026E: +0.65% - 2027E: +1.29% [5][36] - Net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders is forecasted as follows: - 2023: 33.48 billion RMB - 2024: 27.89 billion RMB - 2025E: 25.16 billion RMB - 2026E: 24.95 billion RMB - 2027E: 25.85 billion RMB [5][36] Order and Contract Insights - The company has signed new contracts amounting to 2.73 trillion RMB in 2021, 3.03 trillion RMB in 2022, 3.10 trillion RMB in 2023, 2.72 trillion RMB in 2024, and 1.58 trillion RMB in 2025 (Q1-Q3), with a year-on-year growth of +4.7%, +11.1%, +2.2%, -12.4%, and +3.7% respectively [6][16] - As of Q3 2025, the company has a backlog of contracts worth 7.54 trillion RMB, ensuring stable revenue for the upcoming years [6][16] Resource Segment Performance - The resource utilization segment's revenue from 2021 to 2025 (Q1-Q3) is as follows: - 2021: 5.96 billion RMB - 2022: 7.50 billion RMB - 2023: 8.37 billion RMB - 2024: 8.16 billion RMB - 2025 (Q1-Q3): 6.22 billion RMB - The segment's gross margin is reported at 59.45% for 2025 (Q1-Q3) [6][25] Valuation and Market Comparison - The report suggests a target market capitalization of 999 billion RMB for 2026, translating to 1,102 billion HKD, indicating a potential upside of 16.6% from the current market cap of 945 billion HKD [6][41] - The report compares the company's valuation with peers, noting that the average PE for comparable companies is 4.2X for 2025 and 4.0X for 2026 [6][41]

市公司 型 ( 2025 年 12 月 23 日 (06110) 三季度基本符合预期,经营指标健康,需求仍待回暖 报告原因: 有业绩公布需要点评 ar (维持) | 市场数据: | 2025 年 12 月 22 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港币） | 3.12 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 8939.68 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币) | 4.13/2.60 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 193.48 | | 流通 H 股 (百万股) | 6,201.22 | | 汇率（港币/人民币） | 0.9068 | -年内股价与基准指数对比走势: 刘佩 A0230523070002 liupei@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 投资要点: 财务数据及盈利预测 | 货币单位:人民币 | FY2024 | FY2025 | FY2026E | FY2027E | FY2028E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(亿元) | 289.3 | 270.1 | 252.7 | 266.2 | 282.7 | | 同 ...

上 市 公 司 商业贸易 2025 年 12 月 23 日 滔搏 (06110) ——三季度基本符合预期，经营指标健康，需求仍待回暖 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： -6% 14% 34% 54% 12/23 01/23 02/23 03/23 04/23 05/23 06/23 07/23 08/23 09/23 10/23 11/23 HSCEI 滔搏 资料来源：Bloomberg 证券分析师 王立平 A0230511040052 wanglp@swsresearch.com 刘佩 A0230523070002 liupei@swsresearch.com 联系人 刘佩 A0230523070002 liupei@swsresearch.com 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 买入（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 12 月 22 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港币） | 3.12 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 8939.68 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 4.13/2.60 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 193.48 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 6,201. ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][3][6] Core Views - The company is experiencing rapid growth in the shipment of power batteries, with a market share of 4.7% in the global power battery market as of January to October 2025, showing a continuous year-on-year increase. In October, the company surpassed LG Energy in monthly installations, marking its entry into the global top three [4][7]. - The company is diversifying its customer base and expanding globally, with significant partnerships in the passenger vehicle sector with companies like XPeng, Leap Motor, GAC, and Changan, as well as in the commercial vehicle sector with clients such as Geely, Chery, and others [4][7]. - The company is also seeing rapid growth in energy storage battery shipments, with expectations to reach approximately 45 GWh in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of over 75%. The company is enhancing its product offerings and expanding its international presence [5][8]. Summary by Sections Power Battery Segment - The company is projected to achieve nearly 70 GWh in power battery shipments in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of over 50%. The company is focusing on global diversification and has secured orders from leading overseas passenger vehicle clients [4][6][7]. Energy Storage Segment - The company is one of the earliest to mass-produce 314Ah cells and is continuously optimizing its product lineup. It has established deep collaborations with major clients like Sungrow and CRRC Zhuzhou, while also expanding its overseas footprint in regions like Saudi Arabia and Europe [5][8]. Financial Projections - The profit forecast for 2025 has been adjusted downwards due to fluctuations in shipment structures, while the forecasts for 2026 and 2027 have been raised due to positive impacts from storage and commercial vehicle demand. Expected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 1.215 billion, 2.675 billion, and 3.904 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 106%, 120%, and 46% [6][11].

极氪私有化完成，三大电车品牌 26 年齐发力 证 券 研 究 报 告 吉利汽车（00175.HK）重大事项点评 强推（维持） 事项： ❖ 12 月 22 日，吉利汽车发布公告，宣布正式完成对极氪的私有化及合并事项的 交易，极氪成为吉利汽车的全资附属公司，并于纽交所退市。此前 12 月 9 日 已公告交易对价选择结果，70.8%的极氪股东选择股份，吉利汽车共为其配发 7.7723 亿股股份；29.2%的股东选择现金，吉利汽车共支付 7.01 亿美元现金。 评论： [主要财务指标 Indicator_FinchinaSimpleHK] | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 241,099 | 349,740 | 448,010 | 496,572 | | 同比增速(%) | 33.5% | 45.1% | 28.1% | 10.8% | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 16,632 | 18,645 | 26,296 | 31,749 | | 同比增速(%) | 213.3% | 12.1 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Buy" with a target price of HKD 19.82 [1][5][11] Core Insights - The company has successfully licensed its SIM0613 (LRRC15 ADC) to France's Ipsen for an upfront payment of USD 45 million and a total deal value of USD 1.06 billion, marking the third licensing deal in 2025 and indicating the company's innovative drug pipeline is entering a monetization phase [1][2] - The SIM0613 ADC platform shows significant potential, with advantages demonstrated in preclinical models and no direct competitors in clinical stages, positioning it as a potential first-in-class (FIC) product globally [2][3] - The company is accelerating its global pipeline expansion, with multiple products and technology platforms poised for overseas exploration, including promising candidates in autoimmune and oncology fields [3][4] Financial Projections - The adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected at RMB 1.18 billion, RMB 1.40 billion, and RMB 1.52 billion respectively, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14% from 2025 to 2027 [5][11] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for the same years are RMB 0.45, RMB 0.54, and RMB 0.59, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio projected to be 33.19x for 2026 [5][11][12]