证券研究报告|港股公司点评报告 [Table_Date] 2026 年 01 月 15 日 [Table_Title] Q4 流水承压，关注新店型和新产品发展 [Table_Title2] 李宁(2331.HK) | [Table_DataInfo] 评级： | 买入 | 股票代码： | 2331 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上次评级： | 买入 | 52 周最高价/最低价(港元)： | 20.28/14.52 | | 目标价格(港元)： | | 总市值(亿港元) | 505.33 | | 最新收盘价(港元)： | 19.55 | 自由流通市值(亿港元) | 505.33 | | | | 自由流通股数(百万) | 2,584.81 | [Table_Summary] 事件概述 李宁发布最新运营状况，25Q4 李宁（不包括李宁 YOUNG）流水同比实现低单位数下降，其中线下/电商分 别为中单位数下降/持平，零售/批发分别为低单位数下降/中单位数下降。 大股东持续增持，李宁/李麒麟先生持股比例由年初的 10.7%/10.6%提升至 14.8%/14.4%，回购价格在 14.96-1 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and it is maintained [8]. Core Insights - The company reported a retail revenue growth of approximately 10% year-on-year for its main brand and children's clothing in Q4 2025, with e-commerce platform revenue showing a high double-digit growth [2][6]. - The company is expanding its super stores rapidly, with 126 super stores established by the end of 2025, which is expected to significantly enhance sales performance and drive retail growth [9]. - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.26 billion, 1.37 billion, and 1.50 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 9, 8, and 7, indicating a relatively low valuation [9]. Summary by Sections Retail Performance - The company maintained a retail growth rate of about 10% in Q4 2025, outperforming peers, with stable discount and inventory levels [9]. Store Expansion - The rapid expansion of super stores is expected to meet consumer demand for cost-effective shopping and significantly contribute to retail growth [9]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 10.07 billion in 2024, 11.19 billion in 2025, 12.33 billion in 2026, and 13.48 billion in 2027, with respective growth rates of 20%, 11%, 10%, and 9% [11]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) are 0.56, 0.61, 0.66, and 0.72 for the years 2024 to 2027 [11].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [2][7]. Core Insights - China Overseas Macro Group is establishing itself as a leader in the quality residential market in lower-tier cities, leveraging the brand strength of its parent company, China Overseas Property [7][19]. - The company has developed a comprehensive value chain in real estate development, covering land acquisition, planning, construction, marketing, after-sales service, and property management [19]. - The company is expected to see a gradual recovery in profitability, with projected net profits of 330 million, 436 million, and 628 million RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, alongside corresponding EPS of 0.09, 0.12, and 0.18 RMB [7][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - China Overseas Macro Group is a flagship enterprise under China Overseas Group, focusing on mid-to-high-end residential development in second and third-tier cities [19]. - The company has a strong backing from its parent company, which enhances its brand credibility and resource access [28]. 2. Market Positioning - The company is positioned to benefit from the exit of less competitive firms from lower-tier markets, allowing it to increase market share [8][44]. - The strategic focus on lower-tier cities is expected to optimize supply-demand dynamics in the mid-to-high-end market [44]. 3. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 14.54 billion RMB, a decrease of 33.45% year-on-year, with a net profit of 284 million RMB, down 67.91% [9]. - The average financing cost has decreased, with a reported 2.9% in the first half of 2025, indicating improved financial health [9]. 4. Sales and Market Trends - The company achieved a contract sales amount of 40.11 billion RMB in 2024, a slight decline of 6.3% year-on-year, but significantly better than the average decline of 34% in the cities it operates [49]. - Monthly sales data shows signs of recovery, with a notable increase in sales amounts and areas in the second quarter of 2025 [73]. 5. Land Acquisition Strategy - The company has adopted a cautious investment strategy, focusing on acquiring land in core locations of strong third-tier cities, with a total land reserve of 1.1892 million square meters in 2024 [79]. - The land acquisition strategy emphasizes "mainstream cities, mainstream locations, and mainstream products," ensuring a competitive edge in the market [79].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on industry bottom layout opportunities, indicating a cautious but optimistic outlook for the company's long-term growth potential [3]. Core Insights - The signing of the investment agreement with MODON marks a significant step in the company's globalization strategy and optimization of regional and product structure [3]. - The project in Saudi Arabia is expected to fill a gap in the local automotive glass manufacturing industry, aligning with Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 localization strategy [2]. - The project aims to enhance the company's overall profitability by introducing high-value automotive glass and Low-E energy-saving glass production lines, which will help mitigate the cyclical fluctuations of domestic float glass [2]. Summary by Sections Event Overview - On January 14, 2026, the company signed an investment agreement in Saudi Arabia with a total investment of approximately $386 million, covering over 350,000 square meters for the construction of float, automotive, and high-performance Low-E energy-saving glass production lines [1]. Strategic Significance - The project allows the company to avoid trade barriers and deepen regional layout, effectively mitigating potential tariff risks and leveraging Saudi Arabia's free trade agreements [2]. - As the first automotive glass manufacturer in Saudi Arabia, the project provides a significant first-mover advantage, enabling the company to secure local supply chain demands amid the country's automotive industry development [2]. - The project is expected to benefit from local policy support in terms of taxes and energy, while proximity to energy sources will help control production costs [2].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the company, with expectations of accelerated sales growth in the second half of 2025 [5]. Core Insights - The company is projected to benefit from improved product mix, declining raw material prices, and cost savings in sales management, leading to an expansion in gross and net profit margins [5][6]. - All business segments are expected to achieve double-digit year-on-year growth, driven by promotional activities in the tea beverage sector and an increase in the number of beverage heating cabinets in stores to support winter sales [5]. - The packaging water segment is anticipated to recover its market share, with sales expected to reach 91% of the 2023 level in 2025, continuing to grow in 2026 [6]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is a market leader in China's packaged drinking water and beverage industry, focusing on providing healthy and high-quality drinks [9]. - Major products include packaged drinking water, tea beverages, juices, and functional drinks, with packaged drinking water and tea beverages contributing 47% and 30% of total revenue, respectively, as of December 2023 [9][10]. Revenue Projections - Revenue growth for the second half of 2025 is expected to exceed management's guidance for the year, with all business segments projected to achieve double-digit growth [5]. - The tea beverage segment is expected to perform exceptionally well due to promotional activities and favorable comparisons to the low base in the second half of 2024 [5]. Catalysts - Key catalysts for growth include further market share acquisition in the packaging water business, declining PET prices, faster-than-expected macroeconomic recovery, continuous new product launches, and strong growth in the sugar-free tea beverage segment [7].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for China Oriental Education with a target price of HKD 10.05, indicating a potential upside of 51.3% from the current price of HKD 6.64 [3][6]. Core Insights - China Oriental Education, established in 1988, is the largest vocational skills education provider in China, focusing on five main areas: culinary arts, Western pastry and cuisine, information and internet technology, automotive services, and fashion beauty [4][15]. - The company has shown a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20.89% in revenue from 2015 to 2019, driven primarily by the number of training participants. However, revenue growth slowed from 2020 to 2022 due to external factors such as restrictions on in-person classes and competition from general high school policies [4][27]. - The company has adapted its business strategy in response to changing market conditions, leading to a recovery in performance starting in 2024, with revenue and net profit showing significant year-on-year growth [4][6]. Company Overview - China Oriental Education operates under several brands, including New Oriental Culinary Education, Xinhua Computer, and Wan Tong Automotive, among others. As of June 2025, the company has 234 schools across various provinces and regions [15][17]. - The company’s revenue for the first half of 2025 was HKD 21.9 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.2%, with net profit reaching HKD 4.0 billion, up 48.4% [4][44]. Industry Analysis - The vocational education market in China is projected to grow significantly, with the total market size expected to increase from RMB 516.7 billion in 2016 to RMB 1.1 trillion by 2026, reflecting a CAGR of 7.8% [74]. - The demand for vocational education remains strong despite the increasing number of general high school graduates, as many young individuals face higher unemployment rates and seek vocational training to enhance their employability [67][68]. - The report highlights a shift in the education landscape, where institutions with strong teaching capabilities and research strengths are better positioned to capture market share amid increasing competition [61][62].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on Lenovo Group, with expectations of net profit growth in the third quarter of fiscal year 2026, driven by robust PC shipments and stable profit margins [4]. Core Insights - Lenovo's PC business is expected to remain resilient, with a projected year-on-year revenue increase in the third quarter of fiscal year 2026, despite rising memory prices impacting profit margins [4][5]. - The Infrastructure Solutions Group (ISG) is anticipated to approach breakeven in operating profit margins, with profitability expected in the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2026 due to product mix optimization and sales team restructuring [4]. - Lenovo's strong bargaining power and large-scale procurement capabilities position it favorably against competitors, allowing it to better manage cost pressures and transition towards the high-end market [4]. Summary by Relevant Sections Company Overview - Lenovo is the largest PC brand globally, holding a 24% market share in sales. The company has expanded its global footprint through acquisitions and joint ventures in the PC, smartphone, enterprise server, and cloud service sectors [8]. - Approximately 80% of Lenovo's revenue comes from laptops and desktops, while 10% is derived from smartphones and another 10% from servers, services, and software [8]. Revenue Breakdown - The revenue distribution by product category is as follows: Intelligent Devices Group (73.1%), Infrastructure Solutions Group (14.6%), and Solutions and Services Group (12.3%) [9]. - The revenue distribution by region is: Asia (39.8%), Americas (34.5%), Europe (17.3%), and Middle East & Africa (8.5%) [9]. Catalysts - Key catalysts for Lenovo's growth include a rebound in global PC shipments, continuous market share expansion in the PC segment, AI PC launches boosting shipments and profit margins, and improved profitability prospects in the server business [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [4] Core Insights - The company has signed an exclusive licensing agreement with AbbVie for its PD-1/VEGF bispecific antibody drug RC148, receiving an upfront payment of $650 million and potential milestone payments up to $4.95 billion, along with double-digit royalties on net sales outside Greater China [1][2] - The collaboration with AbbVie is expected to enhance the company's international clinical development and market expansion, leveraging AbbVie's existing oncology pipeline [2] - Initial clinical data for RC148 shows promising results, with an objective response rate (ORR) of 61.9% for monotherapy and 66.7% for combination therapy, indicating strong potential for further clinical advancement [3] Financial Summary - The company forecasts revenues of 2.75 billion, 3.38 billion, and 4.41 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 60.95%, 22.97%, and 30.40% [7] - The projected net profit for 2026 is expected to be -315.8 million CNY, with a turnaround to a profit of 383.89 million CNY by 2027 [7] - The gross margin is anticipated to remain high, with estimates of 83.65% in 2025 and 82.27% in 2026 [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 103.27 HKD per share, based on an 18x PE valuation for 2026 [4][10][6]. Core Insights - The company's ARR reached 240 million USD by December 2025, ranking 14th globally in commercialization, with expectations for continued revenue growth in January 2026 driven by product advantages in the consumer sector [2][3]. - The company is projected to achieve a 9% year-on-year revenue growth in 2026, with total revenue expected to reach 154.9 billion CNY, and an adjusted profit of 22.5 billion CNY, reflecting a 10% increase [3][4]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2023 is forecasted at 113.47 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 20.5%. This is expected to increase to 167.52 billion CNY by 2027, with a growth rate of 8.2% [5][12]. - Adjusted net profit is projected to grow from 6.4 billion CNY in 2023 to 24.77 billion CNY by 2027, with corresponding growth rates of -146.7% in 2023 and 15.4% in 2027 [5][12]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve from 50.6% in 2023 to 56.8% in 2027, while the net profit margin is projected to rise from 5.6% to 14.8% over the same period [5][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba [5][11] Core Insights - AI-driven growth in Alibaba Cloud is expected to continue, while e-commerce faces pressure with flash sales showing steady loss reduction. The company's large consumption strategy is progressing in a coordinated manner [4][10] - The forecast for Alibaba's revenue for FY2026-2028 is adjusted to 1,030.7 billion, 1,143.2 billion, and 1,251.8 billion CNY respectively, with adjusted net profits of 91.6 billion, 135.8 billion, and 176.1 billion CNY [4][14] - The target price is set at 207.7 HKD, based on a market capitalization of 35,656 billion CNY [4][14] Revenue and Profit Forecast - For FY2026, total revenue is projected at 1,030.7 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 3.45%. The adjusted net profit is expected to be 91.6 billion CNY, reflecting a decrease of 13.21% year-on-year [13][15] - The revenue from Alibaba Cloud is anticipated to reach 434.9 billion CNY in FY26Q3, representing a year-on-year increase of 37.0% [10][15] E-commerce Performance - The e-commerce segment is projected to generate 1,054.8 billion CNY in FY26Q3, with a year-on-year growth of 3.4%. However, the growth rate is expected to slow down due to high base effects and policy impacts [10][15] - The flash sales segment is estimated to incur a loss of approximately 21.5 billion CNY in FY26Q3, with a single average loss of 3.7 CNY [10][15] Cloud Intelligence Group - The Cloud Intelligence Group is expected to accelerate further, driven by AI demand, with external revenue showing significant growth [10][15] - The report highlights Alibaba's unique position as the only full-stack AI cloud provider in China, which is expected to enhance its revenue and profit potential [10][15] Other Business Segments - The AIDC segment is projected to continue reducing losses, with an expected loss of 1.89 billion CNY in FY26Q3 due to increased investment in promotional activities [10][15] - The report emphasizes the potential for Alibaba's C-end AI applications to drive user growth and enhance the overall AI ecosystem [10][15]