证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 04 月 02 日 目标估值：NA 当前股价：72.55 港元 基础数据 | 总股本（百万股） | 1095 | | --- | --- | | 香港股（百万股） | 1095 | | 总市值（十亿港元） | 79.4 | | 香港股市值（十亿港元） | 79.4 | | 每股净资产（港元） | 22.6 | | ROE（TTM） | 10.9 | | 资产负债率 | 53.0% | | 主要股东 | 舜旭有限公司 | | 主要股东持股比例 | 35.54% | 股价表现 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 -23 32 84 相对表现 -24 22 44 -50 0 50 100 150 Apr/24 Jul/24 Nov/24 Mar/25 (%) 舜宇光学科技 恒生指数 舜宇光学科技（02382.HK） 24 年业绩符合预期，关注智驾渗透、手机光学升规趋势带动 TMT 及中小盘/电子 事件：公司发布 2024 年报，24 全年营收 382.94 亿元，同比+20.9%；净利润 26.99 亿元，同比+145.5%。我们点评如下： 增持（维持） 资料来源：公司数 ...

2024 年业绩强劲势头不改，中医+AI 布局版图进一步清晰，维持买入 在老门店稳步爬坡和持续的对外扩张步伐下，公司 2024 年业绩延续强劲增长 态势，就诊量、会员用户粘性、医生供给等核心运营指标均交出满意答卷。 公司加大对中医+AI 模式的投入，有望在长期内贡献可观的业绩增量。 个股评级 买入 1 年股价表现 资料来源 : FactSet 4/24 8/24 12/24 -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 2273 HK 恒生指数 股份资料 交银国际研究 财务模型更新 医药 2025 年 4 月 2 日 固生堂 (2273 HK) 收盘价 目标价 潜在涨幅 港元 33.25 港元 42.00 +26.3% | 52周高位 (港元) | 48.50 | | --- | --- | | 52周低位 (港元) | 26.25 | | 市值 (百万港元) | 7,820.40 | | 日均成交量 (百万) | 7.33 | | 年初至今变化 (%) | (1.63) | | 200天平均价 (港元) | 35.00 | | 资料来源 : FactSet | | 丁 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative return of over 20% within the next six months [6]. Core Insights - The company achieved total revenue of 8.12 billion yuan for the year, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 7.73 billion yuan, with a year-over-year growth of 15.8% [1]. - Non-IFRS net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.14 billion yuan, slightly exceeding Bloomberg's estimate of 1.13 billion yuan, with a year-over-year increase of 1.0% [1]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its content ecosystem and expanding its IP (Intellectual Property) operations, which are expected to drive future growth [5]. Revenue Breakdown - Online business revenue reached 4.03 billion yuan, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 2.1% [2]. - Proprietary platform revenue was 3.53 billion yuan, up 3.4% year-over-year, attributed to improved core product operations and high-quality content production [2]. - Revenue from Tencent product channels was 250 million yuan, down 28.2% year-over-year, due to optimized content distribution mechanisms [2]. - Third-party platform revenue also reached 250 million yuan, showing a significant year-over-year increase of 32.0% [2]. - IP operations and other revenue totaled 4.09 billion yuan, with a year-over-year growth of 33.5% [2]. - Revenue from IP operations was 3.99 billion yuan, up 34.2% year-over-year, driven by the increase in popular series, films, and animations [2]. - Other revenue, primarily from physical book sales, was 100 million yuan, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 10.5% [2]. IP Creation and User Engagement - The company added approximately 330,000 new authors and 650,000 new novels in 2024, with a total word count exceeding 42 billion [3]. - The number of users casting over 1,000 monthly votes increased by 60% year-over-year, indicating enhanced user engagement [3]. - The platform's paying users grew steadily, with Monthly Active Users (MAU) reaching 9.1 million, a year-over-year increase of 4.6% [3]. IP Monetization and Partnerships - The GMV (Gross Merchandise Volume) from IP derivatives exceeded 500 million yuan in 2024, with card game GMV surpassing 200 million yuan [4]. - The company has established partnerships with over 150 brands across various categories, including toys and food [4]. - A comprehensive sales network has been developed, including over 10 online self-operated live streaming rooms and 8 offline stores in major cities [4]. Technological Advancements - The company is leveraging AI technology to enhance content creation and globalize its IP [5]. - The "Writer Assistant" tool, integrated with the DeepSeek-R1 model, has seen a 30% increase in daily active users and over 50% weekly usage rate of AI features [5]. - AI translation has expanded to over 3,200 works, accounting for 47% of total Chinese translations, with non-English revenue growing over 350% year-over-year [5]. - AI is being applied across various IP forms, including audiobooks and animations, to improve content recommendation and user interaction [5]. Financial Projections - The report forecasts Non-IFRS net profits of 1.23 billion yuan, 1.45 billion yuan, and 1.73 billion yuan for 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E respectively, reflecting a positive outlook for the company's profitability [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth of 3.9% in 2024, driven by professional categories such as running and fitness [7]. - The gross margin is projected to improve to 49.4%, while net profit is expected to decline by 5.5% to 3.01 billion [7]. - The company is focusing on optimizing channel structures and enhancing operational efficiency to expand its influence in the professional sports market [7]. Financial Data and Forecast - Revenue (in million) for 2023 is 27,598.49, projected to be 28,675.64 in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 3.9% [6]. - Net profit (in million) for 2023 is 3,186.91, expected to decrease to 3,012.92 in 2024, reflecting a decline of 5.46% [6]. - The diluted EPS for 2024 is projected at 1.17, with a gross margin of 49.37% [6][10]. - The company anticipates a net profit of 27.3 billion and 28.6 billion for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with a PE valuation range of 13-15X for 2025 [7]. Market Performance - The company's stock price closed at 15.78 HKD, with a 52-week price range of 12.56-24.60 HKD [2]. - The total market capitalization is 40,788 million HKD [2]. - The company has faced challenges in offline traffic, with a reported decline in daily customer flow by 10-20% [7]. Revenue Breakdown - The revenue from the Li Ning brand is expected to reach 26.82 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 3.4% [7]. - Revenue from footwear, apparel, and equipment is projected at 14.3 billion, 12.05 billion, and 2.32 billion, respectively, with footwear showing a growth of 6.8% [7]. Inventory and Efficiency - The company maintains a healthy inventory structure with a turnover period of 64 days and an inventory cost increase of 4.2% year-on-year [7]. - The overall inventory turnover ratio is 4.0 months, indicating a stable inventory management strategy [7]. Valuation and Estimates - The estimated reasonable value range for the stock is between 14.92 and 17.22 HKD per share based on the projected earnings [7]. - The company is expected to maintain a dividend yield of approximately 3.71% in 2024 [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company reported a total wholesale sales volume of 232,000 vehicles in March, representing a year-on-year increase of 53.9% and a month-on-month increase of 13.3%. Cumulatively, from January to March, the total wholesale sales reached 704,000 vehicles, up 47.9% year-on-year [2][3] - The sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) in March reached 119,696 units, a significant year-on-year increase of 167.2% and a month-on-month increase of 21.6%, with a penetration rate of 51.6%. For the first quarter, cumulative NEV sales were 339,000 units, up 135.4% year-on-year [2][3] - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 3.58 billion yuan in Q4 2024, exceeding market expectations, with a gross margin of 17.3%, reflecting a gradual realization of profitability improvement driven by new energy [2][4] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In March, the company's total sales were 232,000 vehicles, with the Galaxy brand contributing 90,032 units. The Zeekr brand sold 15,422 units, and Lynk & Co sold 25,293 units [2][3] New Energy Vehicle Strategy - The company plans to launch five new products under the Galaxy brand, including two SUVs and three sedans, with an annual sales target of over 1 million units for the Galaxy brand [2][4] Technological Advancements - The establishment of Zeekr Technology Group aims to enhance strategic focus and integration, targeting the pure electric market above 300,000 yuan, while Lynk & Co will focus on hybrid models priced around 200,000 yuan [3][4] - The company is integrating AI technologies into its vehicles, with plans to fully implement its AI strategy across new models [4] Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 14.02 billion yuan in 2025, 17.78 billion yuan in 2026, and 20.38 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding EPS of 1.39, 1.76, and 2.02 yuan [5][8]

食品饮料/饮料乳品 中国飞鹤（06186.HK） 2025 年 04 月 02 日 投资评级：增持（维持） 日期 2025/4/1 当前股价(港元) 5.900 一年最高最低(港元) 7.380/3.390 总市值(亿港元) 534.97 流通市值(亿港元) 534.97 总股本(亿股) 90.67 流通港股(亿股) 90.67 近 3 个月换手率(%) 21.51 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -30% 0% 30% 60% 90% 120% 2024-04 2024-08 2024-12 中国飞鹤 恒生指数 相关研究报告 《2024H1 业绩超预期，毛利提升带动 利润率改善—港股公司信息更新报 告》-2024.8.31 张宇光（分析师） 张思敏（联系人） zhangyuguang@kysec.cn zhangsimin@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790123070080 2024 年利润略低于预期，持续分红提升股东回报 2024 年公司实现营收 207.49 亿元，同比+6.2%；归母净利润 35.70 亿元，同比 +5.3%。2024H2 收入 106.54 亿元，同比+8.7%；归母净利润 16. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 6.28, indicating a potential upside of 27.4% from the current price of HKD 4.93 [1][12][18]. Core Insights - The company's performance met expectations, with a recovery in polysilicon prices, although the stock price has dropped significantly, making valuations attractive [2][7]. - The company reported a loss of RMB 39.1 billion for 2024, slightly better than the forecast median, with the polysilicon segment contributing a loss of approximately RMB 50 billion [7][8]. - The report highlights a significant increase in operating costs and a decline in average selling prices for polysilicon, which fell by 60% year-on-year to RMB 38,400 per ton [7][9]. Financial Overview - Revenue for 2023 is projected at RMB 30,752 million, with a decline to RMB 21,213 million in 2024, representing a year-on-year decrease of 31% [3][14]. - Net profit is expected to drop from RMB 4,345 million in 2023 to a loss of RMB 3,957 million in 2024, with a gradual recovery anticipated in subsequent years [3][14]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be RMB 3.04 in 2023, dropping to a loss of RMB 2.77 in 2024, before recovering to RMB 1.09 by 2027 [3][14]. Segment Performance - The polysilicon segment is expected to produce 19.9 million tons in 2024, with a sales volume of 19.9 million tons, maintaining a production/sales rate of 100.2% [9][10]. - The average selling price for polysilicon is projected to decline further in 2025, with a forecasted price of RMB 37,000 per ton [9][10]. - The report anticipates that the company's gross margin from polysilicon will remain negative in 2025, with a recovery expected in subsequent years as production costs decrease [9][10]. Valuation Methodology - The target price of HKD 6.28 is derived from a sum-of-the-parts valuation, with the polysilicon segment valued at RMB 14 billion and the non-polysilicon segments valued at RMB 70 billion based on a 5x earnings multiple [10][12]. - The report notes that the current price-to-book ratio is only 0.20, indicating that the stock is undervalued compared to its historical averages [7][10].

交银国际研究 财务模型更新 Gloria.Zhuge@bocomgroup.com (852) 3766 1845 医药 2025 年 4 月 2 日 固生堂 (2273 HK) 收盘价 目标价 潜在涨幅 港元 33.25 港元 42.00 +26.3% 2024 年业绩强劲势头不改，中医+AI 布局版图进一步清晰，维持买入 在老门店稳步爬坡和持续的对外扩张步伐下，公司 2024 年业绩延续强劲增长 态势，就诊量、会员用户粘性、医生供给等核心运营指标均交出满意答卷。 公司加大对中医+AI 模式的投入，有望在长期内贡献可观的业绩增量。 个股评级 买入 1 年股价表现 资料来源 : FactSet 4/24 8/24 12/24 -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 2273 HK 恒生指数 股份资料 | 52周高位 (港元) | 48.50 | | --- | --- | | 52周低位 (港元) | 26.25 | | 市值 (百万港元) | 7,820.40 | | 日均成交量 (百万) | 7.33 | | 年初至今变化 (%) | (1.63) | | 2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 13.50, indicating a potential upside of 49.5% from the current price of HKD 9.03 [2][12]. Core Insights - The company is expected to see revenue growth driven by the demand for same-city delivery services, with projected growth rates of 23% for 2025 and 21% for 2026. However, the average delivery revenue per order may slightly decline year-on-year due to changes in order structure [2][6]. - Profit margins are anticipated to improve due to economies of scale, with management forecasting a profit margin of at least 2% by 2027, approaching the industry norm of 3-5% [2][6]. - The company reported a significant increase in net profit for 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 289% to RMB 79 million, driven by scale effects, customer structure optimization, and operational efficiency improvements [6][7]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to reach RMB 19,350 million in 2025, with a growth rate of 22.9% compared to the previous year. The revenue from same-city delivery services is expected to be RMB 11,316 million, while last-mile delivery is projected at RMB 8,034 million [5][13]. - The gross profit for 2025 is estimated at RMB 1,374 million, with a gross margin of 7.1% [5][13]. - Adjusted operating profit is expected to be RMB 293 million in 2025, with an adjusted operating margin of 1.5% [5][13]. Market Position and Performance - The company has shown resilience in its market position, with a market capitalization of approximately HKD 6,571.76 million and a 52-week high of HKD 12.60 [4][12]. - The average daily trading volume is reported at 0.69 million shares, indicating active trading interest [4][12]. - The stock has experienced a year-to-date change of -2.80%, reflecting market volatility [4][12].

交银国际研究 财务模型更新 | 互联网 | 收盘价 | | 目标价 | | 潜在涨幅 | 2025 年 4 月 2 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 港元 | | 10.48 | 港元 | 10.20↓ | -2.7% | | | 网龙网络 (777 HK) | | | | | | | 业绩短期承压，关注欧美教育市场改善及游戏下半年改善的趋势 2025 年公司游戏及教育业务收入增长面临不确定性，虽然通过 AI+战略有望实 现降本增效对运营费用的优化，短期利润或仍有下降压力，我们基于 SOTP， 将目标价从 14.00 港元下调至 10.20 港元，其中游戏维持 5 倍 2025 年市盈率不 变，评级下调至中性，关注欧美教育市场环境后续改善以及游戏调整期后下 半年恢复增长的趋势。 个股评级 中性↓ 1 年股价表现 资料来源 : FactSet 4/24 8/24 12/24 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 777 HK 恒生指数 股份资料 | 52周高位 (港元) | 12.78 | | --- | --- | ...