1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Palm Oil**: In 2025, the palm oil market showed a trend of rising first and then falling, with the center of the price shifting upwards. In 2026, the global supply - demand of palm oil is expected to remain in a tight - balance state. The price is likely to show a fluctuating trend with a rising center, ranging from 8300 to 9800. Domestic supply and demand are expected to continue the double - weak trend [2][3][153]. - **Cuisine Oils and Meals**: In 2025, the rapeseed oil futures fluctuated upwards, while the rapeseed meal futures showed wide - range fluctuations. In 2026, the global supply of rapeseed is expected to increase significantly, and the supply - demand outlook will turn loose. However, the domestic supply will be tight. The prices of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal are expected to fluctuate, with the price range of rapeseed oil from 9000 to 10100 and that of rapeseed meal from 2200 to 2800 [3][4][156]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 2025 H1 Market Trend Review - **Palm Oil**: The price experienced significant drops, rebounds, and fluctuations due to factors such as the delay of Indonesia's B40 policy, changes in export demand, and geopolitical situations [17][18]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The price showed a trend of decline, rise, and then decline again, affected by factors like import policies, geopolitical situations, and inventory changes [21][22]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The price fluctuated greatly, influenced by factors such as changes in soybean supply, trade relations, and seasonal demand [26][27]. 3.2 Production, Supply, and Import - Export of Oil Crops - **Palm Oil**: Indonesia's production increased significantly, and Malaysia's production remained high even in the off - season. Overseas demand was at an average level, and Indonesia's B40 policy benefited domestic biodiesel demand. China's import profit was low, and the import volume was low [29][35][50]. - **Cuisine Oils and Meals**: The supply of old - season rapeseed was tight, and the inventory - consumption ratio decreased slightly. After the anti - dumping determination of Canadian rapeseed, Australia's rapeseed gradually replaced it as an import source [58][71]. 3.3 Oil Mill Pressing, Consumption, and Demand - **Biodiesel Consumption**: Diesel strength improved biodiesel blending profit, and Indonesia's B40 policy advanced well. The EPA's proposed rule indicated an unexpected increase in US biodiesel, and its actual implementation needs attention [80][81]. - **Palm Oil Domestic Inventory**: Supply turned loose, while demand remained weak. In the first half of 2025, it was in a double - weak state, and the inventory increased in the second half [82]. - **Cuisine Oils and Meals Production, Operation, and Consumption Demand**: Coastal oil mills were close to shutdown but were expected to recover at the end of the year. Supply lacked increment, but inventory was still high due to weak demand [92][100]. 3.4 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet and Its Interpretation - **Global Rapeseed**: In the 2024/25 season, production decreased, and inventory tightened. In the 2025/26 season, production is expected to increase, and supply will turn loose [107][108]. - **Domestic Rapeseed**: In the 2024/25 season, production and import increased. In the 2025/26 season, production is expected to increase slightly, but import will be restricted, and supply will be tight [109][110]. - **Rapeseed Oil and Rapeseed Meal**: In the 2025/26 season, domestic production of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal is expected to decline, and there will be supply gaps [114]. - **Palm Oil**: In the 2024/25 season, global production and demand increased, and inventory decreased. In the 2025/26 season, supply and demand are expected to increase, and inventory will accumulate slightly [116]. 3.5 Seasonal Analysis - **Palm Oil**: Its price is affected by factors such as oil production and festival consumption. The price usually drops in March - April and June and rises in the fourth quarter [119]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Its price has seasonal fluctuations related to weather and consumption. It rises in winter and drops in May - June [122]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Its consumption is seasonal, with high demand from May to August and low demand in winter [125]. 3.6 Technical Analysis - **Palm Oil**: The medium - and long - term upward trend remains, and attention should be paid to the support and resistance levels in Q1 2026 [128]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The price has fallen to the annual average line, and attention should be paid to the market performance near the annual line [132]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: It maintained a box - shock trend, and attention should be paid to the support at the lower edge of the shock range [137]. 3.7 Option Analysis - **Palm Oil Option**: Volatility remained stable, and the market expects the short - term price to fluctuate between 8400 and 9000 [140]. - **Rapeseed Oil Option**: Volatility decreased compared to last year, and the market has obvious differences in the future price, with the range from 8200 to 11200 [144]. - **Rapeseed Meal Option**: Volatility decreased, and market participation declined. The market's price prediction range is from 2300 to 2600 [148][150]. 3.8 Full - Text Summary and Future Market Outlook - **Palm Oil**: In 2026, global supply - demand is expected to remain in a tight - balance state, and the price is expected to fluctuate with a rising center. Domestic supply and demand will continue to be weak [153][155]. - **Cuisine Oils and Meals**: In 2026, global supply will turn loose, while domestic supply will be tight. Prices are expected to fluctuate, and the key factor is the development of China - Canada trade relations [156][157]. 3.9 Related Listed Company Stock Statistics The report provides stock price and year - to - date performance data of several listed companies in the grain and oil processing, feed processing, and aquaculture industries [159].

Group 1: Market Performance - The consumer sector has shown positive performance for the second consecutive day, with the consumption ETF (159928) increasing by over 1% and a trading volume exceeding 320 million yuan [1] - The consumption ETF (159928) received a net subscription of 8 million units during the day, following a significant net inflow of over 12 million yuan last Friday [1] Group 2: Policy and Economic Support - Three departments issued a notice to enhance collaboration between commerce and finance to boost consumption, proposing 11 specific measures including the use of digital RMB smart contracts to improve policy effectiveness and the development of personal consumption loans [3] - The National Bureau of Statistics reported an increase in the CPI year-on-year in November, indicating positive changes in the economy [3] Group 3: Company News - Moutai - Following the announcement of Moutai's new volume control policy, market prices reacted immediately, with the price of Tianjin Flying Moutai rising to 1,630 yuan per bottle, an increase of over 150 yuan in two days [4] - Moutai's pricing strategy includes focusing on three core products for growth and adjusting the supply of non-standard products based on market demand [8][10] - East Wu Securities believes Moutai's proactive changes and long-term resilience are trustworthy, despite facing challenges from demand shortages and industry transformations [11] Group 4: Industry Insights - The white liquor industry is currently in a challenging phase, with significant declines in revenue and profit margins reported [12] - The industry is experiencing a reduction in the number of large-scale liquor companies, with a record high of 36.1% of companies reporting losses in the first half of 2025 [12] - The demographic changes and evolving drinking habits are expected to have a limited impact on liquor consumption in the next 5-10 years, with signs of price stabilization emerging [13] Group 5: Valuation and Investment Strategy - The consumption ETF (159928) is considered to have attractive valuation characteristics, with a TTM P/E ratio of 19.37, which is lower than 97% of the historical data over the past decade [6] - The white liquor sector's current valuation is reasonable, with a strong dividend yield providing a safety margin for investors [14] - The top ten components of the consumption ETF (159928) account for over 68.55% of its weight, indicating a strong focus on essential consumer goods [15]

Group 1 - The pork stocks showed strength in early trading on December 15, with the Livestock Breeding ETF (516670) rising by 1.56%, and key stocks such as Zhengbang Technology and Tiankang Biological increasing by over 7% [1] - Seasonal consumption during the traditional腌腊 (cured meat) peak in December has provided some support, with the average daily slaughter volume of sample slaughter enterprises increasing by 3.76% week-on-week as of December 12 [3] - The national average price for external three yuan pigs was 11.48 yuan/kg on December 12, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 2.5%, although prices remain low overall [3] Group 2 - The industry continues to experience losses due to low pig prices, with self-breeding and purchased piglet models recording losses of 146 yuan and 75 yuan per head, respectively, marking the 11th consecutive week of industry losses [3] - In November, 14 major listed pig companies collectively slaughtered 16.82 million pigs, a year-on-year increase of 22.48%, maintaining high absolute supply levels [3] - A notable structural change is observed, with the slaughter volume of commodity pigs decreasing by 4.67% week-on-week, while piglet slaughter volume surged by 18.46% week-on-week and increased by 47.92% year-on-year [3] Group 3 - According to Dongfang Securities, historical experience suggests that when both fat and piglet prices are low, the industry is likely to initiate market-driven capacity reduction, which could support long-term price increases [4] - GF Securities indicates that both fat and piglet sales are currently in a loss state, and the industry has the preliminary conditions for loss-driven capacity reduction [4] - With ongoing losses in breeding and the backdrop of "anti-involution" policies, the industry is expected to accelerate capacity reduction, presenting a left-side layout opportunity for the pig breeding sector [4] Group 4 - Looking ahead to 2026, as competition in the industry intensifies, pig companies are shifting focus from relying solely on cost competition to enhancing comprehensive competitive capabilities across the entire industry chain [5] - The Livestock Breeding ETF (516670) tracks the China Securities Livestock Breeding Index, which covers the pig breeding industry chain and has shown significant cyclicality driven by supply and demand dynamics [5] - The management fee rate for the Livestock Breeding ETF (516670) is 0.2% per year, which is lower compared to other similar index ETFs [5]

Group 1 - The Inner Mongolia beef cattle breeding industry is undergoing significant adjustments, with accelerated capacity reduction leading to a decline in feed sales and increased losses from cow breeding, resulting in a culling of livestock. The disease loss rate has risen to 4%-10%, and there is an expectation of a calf buying spree after the Spring Festival, which may drive beef prices to historical highs, benefiting related livestock companies [1] - The improvement in PPI and CPI expectations may catalyze the cyclical sector, such as livestock ETFs, due to policy and price turning points [1] - Institutional funds are continuously migrating from fixed income to equities, with a recovery in consumption boosting sentiment in the agricultural and livestock sectors [1] Group 2 - Guosen Securities predicts a reversal in the livestock cycle by December 2025, noting a reduction in the parent generation of white feather chickens and structural changes, with consumption gradually shifting upwards. The total stock of grandparent generation chickens has increased by 1.34% month-on-month, and the backup grandparent stock has risen by 3.06% year-on-year [2] - According to Caitong Securities, the uncertainty in introducing grandparent chickens due to the avian influenza epidemic in Europe and the U.S. may benefit the price of the white feather chicken industry chain in the medium to long term. In early December, the average price of white feather meat chickens in major production areas increased by 1.11% month-on-month, although breeding profits remain negative [2] - Parent generation chick sales increased by 27.88% week-on-week, while prices fell by 11.83%, indicating a phase of supply and demand structural adjustment [2]

Core Viewpoint - The agricultural and animal husbandry ETF (159275) shows stable performance with a price increase of 1.12% and a trading volume of 4.29 million yuan as of December 15 [1][4]. Group 1: ETF Performance - The top-performing stocks within the ETF include Zhengbang Technology, Tiankang Biological, and Chenguang Biological, with increases of 7.56%, 7.06%, and 5.36% respectively [1][4]. - Conversely, Shennong Seed Industry, Jinxinnong, and Huisheng Biological experienced declines of 3.11%, 2.34%, and 2.36% respectively [1][4]. Group 2: Industry Developments - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has approved the registration of seven new veterinary drugs, including an inactivated vaccine for pigeon paramyxovirus, enhancing the technical reserves of the animal protection industry [1][4]. - The Ministry of Finance has revised the management measures for the reward funds for the transfer of pigs (cattle and sheep) from major counties, strengthening policy support for the pig and sheep industries to guide stable capacity development [1][4]. Group 3: Market Analysis - Guohai Securities indicates that the pig industry is entering a regulatory period, with authorities controlling pig prices through capacity reduction. Short-term pressures on pig prices are expected due to increased slaughter volumes and the digestion of large pig inventories, although regulatory policies will not be overly aggressive [1][4]. - The poultry sector is experiencing low prices, with future attention on marginal improvements in the cycle. The animal protection sector is focused on the clinical trial progress of African swine fever vaccines, with an increased probability of vaccine market entry as trials advance [1][4]. - The pet economy continues to thrive, with strong growth of domestic brands [1][5]. Group 4: Industry Valuation - Dongguan Securities notes that the breeding industry is currently underperforming, with pig prices fluctuating upwards but breeding profits remaining in the red. The inventory of breeding sows remains high, indicating significant capacity reduction potential. The industry's valuation is at historical lows [2][5]. Group 5: ETF Composition - The agricultural and animal husbandry ETF (159275) and its linked funds passively track the agricultural and animal husbandry index, with the top ten weighted stocks including Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, Haida Group, New Hope Liuhe, Meihua Holdings, Dabeinong Technology Group, BioFeng, Beidahuang, Hainan Rubber, and Shennong Development [2][5].

Group 1 - Livestock-related stocks have strengthened, with TianKang Biological rising over 7%, BioShares up over 3%, and MuYuan, HaiDa Group, and LiHua shares each increasing over 2% [1] - Livestock-related ETFs have also seen gains, with an increase of over 2% [1] Group 2 - Several ETFs related to livestock are showing positive performance, with the following price changes: - 516760 Livestock ETF: 0.689 (+2.23%) - 159867 Animal Husbandry ETF: 0.657 (+2.18%) - 516670 Livestock Farming ETF: 0.719 (+2.13%) - 159865 Livestock ETF: 0.646 (+2.05%) [2] - Analysts indicate that the reduction in pig production capacity is beginning to show results, and after a prolonged period of industry losses, cash pressure is significant, limiting short-term capacity expansion [2] - It is expected that pig prices will gradually rise in the second half of 2026, although challenges remain in cost control related to raw materials, animal diseases, and environmental regulations [2] - As the proportion of group farming enterprises increases, the impact of capacity changes on prices is expected to become less pronounced, leading to a more stable overall market capacity and smoother fluctuations in the pig cycle [2]

Summary of Industry Research Conference Call Industry Focus - The conference call primarily discusses the **Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery** industry, with a specific focus on three sub-sectors: **pig farming**, **feed**, and **pet food** [1][2]. Key Insights and Arguments Pig Farming - The pig farming industry is experiencing significant challenges due to **policy adjustments** aimed at capacity reduction, leading to accelerated de-capacity [1][2]. - As of October, the average national price of pigs dropped to its lowest level since 2021, falling below **10 yuan per kilogram** [1][4]. - The government has mandated a reduction in the number of breeding sows and the weight of pigs at slaughter, which is expected to continue exerting supply pressure until at least the first half of 2026, with a potential price turning point anticipated in the third quarter [2][4]. - Current losses in the industry are severe, with average losses reported at **122 yuan** per pig and over **200 yuan** for purchased piglets [4]. - Investment opportunities are highlighted for low-cost, high cash flow companies such as **Muyuan Foods** and **Wens Foodstuff Group** [1][5]. Feed Industry - The feed industry is facing intensified domestic competition and overcapacity, prompting companies to seek growth through **international expansion** [1][6]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, total feed production reached approximately **247 million tons**, marking a **7% year-on-year increase** [3][6]. - Companies like **Haida Group** are expanding into overseas markets, with expectations of reaching **3.3 million tons** in sales by 2025, a **40% increase** from the previous year, and potentially exceeding **4 million tons** in the future [1][6]. Pet Food Sector - The pet food sector has shown resilience despite challenges from trade wars, with external sales pressures easing as production shifts to Southeast Asia [1][3][8]. - The sector is experiencing a shift in product innovation, moving from cost-effectiveness to high-quality meat and category innovation, aligning with evolving consumer demands [2][10]. - The concentration of leading domestic brands and the trend towards product upgrades are key focal points for future growth [9][11]. Additional Important Insights - The overall market for Chinese feed accounts for **23%** of the global total, indicating significant potential for growth in international markets [1][6]. - The pet food industry is expected to continue its stable growth trajectory, with a focus on supply chain adjustments to mitigate external shocks [8][11]. - Investment strategies should prioritize companies with strong brand matrices and competitive advantages, particularly in the pig farming and pet food sectors [12]. This comprehensive overview captures the essential developments and strategic insights from the conference call, providing a clear picture of the current state and future outlook of the agriculture-related industries.

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview 1. Innovative Pharmaceuticals - Investment strategy should focus on companies in the growth certainty phase, particularly those with phase III clinical data, market applications submitted, or stable market positions. [2] - Key companies to watch include BeiGene, Innovent Biologics, and WuXi AppTec, with a focus on those transitioning to commercialization. [2] - The innovative drug sector is expected to continue thriving in 2026, driven by a strong pipeline and demand for high-quality assets. [12] 2. Tea Beverage Industry - The tea beverage sector showed strong performance in Q4 2025, with same-store sales growth maintaining double digits. [4] - The industry is expected to continue its positive trend into 2026, with head brands enhancing supply chain capabilities and new product success rates improving. [4][5] - Coffee products are anticipated to penetrate further into the market, contributing to overall growth. [4] 3. Hotel Industry - The hotel sector is recovering from pandemic-induced volatility, with expectations for stable growth in 2026 as supply growth slows and demand rises. [7] - Key players include Huazhu, Jinjiang, and ShouLai, with predictions for RevPAR to remain stable or slightly increase. [7][8] - The industry is transitioning to a more stable growth phase, with a focus on business and tourism demand. [7] 4. Baijiu (Chinese Liquor) Sector - The baijiu sector faces challenges with declining prices and weak demand, particularly for high-end brands like Kweichow Moutai, which is expected to see a slowdown in performance in early 2026. [9][10] - Recommendations include focusing on resilient stocks such as Luzhou Laojiao and Gujing Gongjiu, which may benefit from a potential rebound in demand. [11] 5. Swine Industry - The swine sector is undergoing capacity reduction, leading to a profit recovery cycle. However, prices are expected to remain low in early 2026, with predictions of prices nearing or dropping below 10 yuan. [30][31] - Companies like Muyuan and Wens Foodstuffs are highlighted for their cost leadership in a challenging market. [36] Additional Insights 6. Cross-Border E-commerce - The cross-border e-commerce sector is seeing significant growth, particularly in categories like cleaning appliances and traditional brands. [13][14] - Companies such as Ugreen and Roborock are noted for their strong performance, with Ugreen experiencing a doubling in growth in October and November. [15] 7. Market Trends and Predictions - The overall market sentiment is cautiously optimistic, with expectations for various sectors to recover and grow in 2026, driven by consumer demand and strategic investments. [24][25] - The impact of tax cuts and interest rate reductions is expected to bolster consumer spending, particularly in home goods. [23] 8. Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on companies with strong growth potential and cost leadership, particularly in the swine and innovative pharmaceutical sectors. [36] - Specific recommendations include companies with resilient business models and those positioned for recovery in the upcoming year. [26][29] This summary encapsulates the key insights and recommendations from the conference call records, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of various industries.

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Consumer Trends for 2026**: The demand side is expected to stabilize, with CPI likely to rise. The consumer industry may see absolute returns, with the extent depending on price elasticity. The service sector is anticipated to outperform mass consumption, which in turn is expected to outperform high-end consumption. The food and beverage mass market has stabilized, while high-end liquor faces destocking pressure [1][4]. Key Insights - **Tourism and Jewelry**: Short-term optimism for the tourism sector due to extended holiday periods. The gold and jewelry market is also expected to perform well if gold prices remain stable, leading to significant company performance growth [1][6]. - **Subsidy Policies**: Anticipation of continued national subsidies in 2026, potentially exceeding expectations. The home appliance sector, despite poor performance this year, is expected to receive around 100 billion in subsidies, with a positive outlook [1][7][8]. - **Mobile Market**: The mobile market is projected to reach approximately 600 billion in 2026, with a shift towards high-value-added products. Traditional home appliances and high-value products like robotic vacuums are expected to continue receiving subsidies [1][9]. Sector-Specific Insights - **Service Sector Performance**: The service sector is expected to perform better than mass consumption, with mass consumption outperforming high-end consumption. The food and beverage sector shows stabilization in mass products, while high-end liquor is in a downward trend [1][5]. - **Home Appliance Sector**: The home appliance sector is expected to maintain stable subsidy policies, with new energy efficiency standards and national standards being implemented. This will positively impact sales and growth in low-penetration categories like robotic vacuums [1][10][11]. - **Macro Economic Environment**: The macroeconomic environment is expected to be stable overall, with potential pressure in the first half of the year but easing in the second half. Positive statements regarding the real estate market post-two sessions could stimulate demand [1][11][12]. Company Recommendations - **Leading Companies**: Midea and Haier are highlighted as key companies to watch. Midea has shown a recovery in stock price and strong overseas export capabilities, with expected profit growth of 5-10% [1][13]. - **Two-Wheeler Industry**: Companies like 9号公司 are recommended for their high-end positioning and growth potential despite regulatory challenges [1][14]. - **Nanfu Technology**: The company is seen as stable and resilient to economic cycles, with significant growth potential due to its underlying assets [1][15]. - **Paper and Metal Packaging**: Positive outlook for price increases in the paper and metal packaging sectors, driven by raw material costs and optimistic pricing outlooks from clients [1][16]. - **Export Sector**: Companies like 共创草坪 and 中兴股份 are recommended for their rapid growth and profitability in the export sector [1][17]. Emerging Opportunities - **New Consumption Areas**: AI glasses are identified as a significant emerging consumption area, with major companies expected to launch related products in 2026 [1][18]. - **Stable Dividend Stocks**: Companies like 恒安国际 are recommended for their stable growth and high dividend yields, making them attractive investment options [1][19]. - **Sports Goods Sector**: The sports goods sector is expected to grow, with brands like 安踏 and 李宁 showing strong performance and potential for improvement in 2026 [1][20]. Agricultural Sector Insights - **Agricultural Prices**: The agricultural sector is expected to see a recovery in prices, with corn prices recently rising. The pig farming industry is under pressure but may stabilize due to policy measures [1][22]. Pet Industry Trends - **Pet Industry Growth**: The pet industry is experiencing strong growth, with domestic brands gaining market share. 中宠股份 is recommended for its robust cash flow and growth potential [1][23].

Group 1: Company Developments - Muyuan Foods has initiated the process for its H-share listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with a potential issuance of approximately 546 million shares [1][4] - Fuling Zhacai reported a 20% growth in its restaurant channel, attributed to the establishment of an independent sales team and targeted product development [1][4] - Anjoy Foods announced that its shrimp products have become the strongest growth category among its new offerings, achieving high double-digit growth [1][5] - Jiamei Packaging is planning a change in control, which may lead to a shift in its major shareholder and actual controller [1][5] - Dayao Beverage has announced the cancellation of its Inner Mongolia subsidiary as part of a routine business adjustment [1][6] - Yuexiu Agricultural and Animal Husbandry Foods signed a memorandum of cooperation with Hendrix Genetics for joint breeding and resource sharing [1][8] - Kudi Coffee's global supply chain base has achieved a monthly production milestone of over 10,000 tons [1][8] Group 2: Product Innovations - Meixin Food launched a new turmeric ginger hot pot base, designed for versatility across various culinary applications [1][10] - Guolian Aquatic Products introduced a new Dai-style lemongrass grilled fish product, featuring fresh tilapia and a unique seasoning blend [1][10] - Sanquan Foods released a low GI blueberry and mulberry glutinous rice ball, incorporating real fruit and a slow sugar formula [1][10] - Nanjiao Foods announced the launch of its YiPure cream, which meets new national standards and boasts a high milk content [1][10] Group 3: Market Trends - The USDA has revised its beef price forecasts downward for 2026 due to anticipated declines in slaughterhouse capacity and recent unfavorable price data [1][11] - Food prices have driven the CPI to its highest year-on-year increase in nearly 21 months, with significant rises in fresh vegetable and meat prices [1][13]