证券研究报告：有色金属|行业周报 发布时间：2025-04-28 行业投资评级 强于大市 |维持 汇率偏移极致带来黄金调整，企稳后依然上行 行业相对指数表现 2024-04 2024-07 2024-09 2024-11 2025-02 2025-04 -22% -18% -14% -10% -6% -2% 2% 6% 10% 14% 18% 有色金属 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:李帅华 SAC 登记编号:S1340522060001 Email:lishuaihua@cnpsec.com 分析师:魏欣 SAC 登记编号:S1340524070001 Email:weixin@cnpsec.com 研究助理:杨丰源 SAC 登记编号:S1340124050015 Email:yangfengyuan@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《看好黄金调整后再上行，铜价到达 压力位》 - 2025.04.21 有色金属行业报告 （2025.4.21-2025.4.25） 行业基本情况 | 收盘点位 | | 4641.0 | | --- | --- | --- | | 52 | 周最高 ...

证券研究报告：有色金属|行业周报 发布时间：2025-04-28 行业投资评级 强于大市 |维持 行业基本情况 | 收盘点位 | | 4641.0 | | --- | --- | --- | | 52 | 周最高 | 5020.22 | | 52 | 周最低 | 3700.9 | 行业相对指数表现 2024-04 2024-07 2024-09 2024-11 2025-02 2025-04 -22% -18% -14% -10% -6% -2% 2% 6% 10% 14% 18% 有色金属 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:李帅华 SAC 登记编号:S1340522060001 Email:lishuaihua@cnpsec.com 分析师:魏欣 SAC 登记编号:S1340524070001 Email:weixin@cnpsec.com 研究助理:杨丰源 SAC 登记编号:S1340124050015 Email:yangfengyuan@cnpsec.com 市场有风险，投资需谨慎 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 近期研究报告 《看好黄金调整后再上行，铜价到达 压力位》 - ...

Investment Rating - The industry maintains an "Accumulate" rating [5] Core Views - The gold market is expected to enter a consolidation phase in the short term, while still possessing upward momentum in the medium term. Recent price fluctuations are attributed to easing tariff policies and profit-taking by bullish investors. Concerns about the sustainability of central bank gold purchases are also noted [1][36] - For industrial metals, copper is seeing a recovery in prices due to increased downstream operating rates and a significant drop in inventories. The market sentiment has improved following the easing of tariff tensions, although uncertainties from trade conflicts remain [2] - In the energy metals sector, lithium production is being constrained by cost pressures, leading to a reduction in operational rates. The market is closely monitoring inventory levels for signs of a turning point [3] Summary by Sections Weekly Data Tracking - The non-ferrous metal sector has generally seen an increase in prices this week, with specific metals experiencing varied price movements [12][18] - The overall non-ferrous metal index rose by 1.5%, with energy metals up by 2.9% and precious metals down by 2.5% [18] Industrial Metals - **Copper**: Downstream operating rates have improved, and global copper inventories have decreased significantly to 641,000 tons, down by 55,000 tons week-on-week. The market anticipates a price recovery due to increased demand and tight supply conditions [2] - **Aluminum**: The easing of U.S. tariff policies is expected to support aluminum prices in the short term, despite an increase in production capacity [2] Energy Metals - **Lithium**: The production of lithium salts is being curtailed due to rising costs, with current production rates at 45%. The market is awaiting a potential inventory turning point [3] - **Silicon Metal**: High inventory levels are limiting price increases, with current social inventory at 602,000 tons. The market remains in a loose supply-demand balance [3] Key Stocks - Recommended stocks include Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and Chalco, all rated as "Buy" with projected earnings per share (EPS) growth [7]

Group 1 - The "national team" has increased holdings in hard technology, domestic demand, and financial insurance sectors while reducing positions in multiple energy stocks during Q1 2025 [1][2] - Over 2,400 A-share listed companies have disclosed their Q1 2025 reports, with more than 360 companies showing "national team" as a major shareholder [1] - The most significantly increased stock by the "national team" is China Ping An, with an additional 252 million shares acquired in Q1 2025, totaling 1.471 billion shares held [1] Group 2 - The "national team" has notably reduced holdings in the energy sector, with China Aluminum seeing a decrease of over 50 million shares, and other companies like Chifeng Gold and Shenhuo Co. also experiencing significant reductions [2] - Insurance funds are focusing on key industries related to national livelihood, with the Honghu Fund, initiated by China Life and Xinhua Insurance, achieving a good performance with investments totaling 50 billion yuan [2][3] - The second batch of long-term investment trials for insurance funds was approved, expanding the total scale from 500 billion yuan to 1.62 trillion yuan, with eight insurance companies participating [3] Group 3 - The Honghu Fund has increased its stake in Shaanxi Coal and has become a significant shareholder, holding over 116 million shares as of Q1 2025 [3][4] - The Honghu Fund also entered the top ten shareholders of China Telecom and holds 76.174 million shares, maintaining its position in Q1 2025 [4] - Insurance companies have mirrored the "national team's" strategy by reducing energy stock holdings while increasing positions in key sectors [5]

Core Viewpoint - Cloud Aluminum Co., Ltd. (云铝股份) is actively managing its cash and investments to maximize returns while addressing investor concerns regarding its financial performance and supplier relationships [2][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - As of April 25, 2025, Cloud Aluminum's stock closed at 15.35 yuan, reflecting a 1.25% increase with a turnover rate of 1.4% and a trading volume of 483,900 shares, amounting to a transaction value of 750 million yuan [1]. - The company reported a significant difference in cash interest income compared to its competitor, Shenhuo Co., Ltd., despite having double the average cash balance [2]. Group 2: Supplier Relationships - The second-largest supplier for Cloud Aluminum is speculated to be its electricity supplier, with procurement amounting to 8.3 billion yuan, which is approximately half of the company's total fuel and power costs of 15.8 billion yuan [2]. - The company maintains that information regarding its key suppliers is confidential and cannot be disclosed to protect both the company and investor interests [2]. Group 3: Market Activity - On April 25, 2025, the net capital flow for Cloud Aluminum showed a net outflow of 33.01 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 10.29 million yuan, and speculative funds saw a net inflow of 43.30 million yuan [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industry [5]. Core Viewpoints - Iron ore prices have shown significant loosening, suggesting a positive outlook for investment opportunities in the steel sector. The report indicates that after three years of adjustment, the current position of the steel sector offers high cost-effectiveness, with leading enterprises showing improved profitability and stability [8][13]. Summary by Sections Macro Overview - Iron ore prices are expected to decline as steel production peaks post-May Day, leading to potential profit squeezes for iron ore suppliers. The domestic demand-driven pricing in the steel sector is highlighted as a key factor [8][13]. Steel Sector - The weekly consumption of rebar decreased to 2.6 million tons, a significant drop of 5.07% week-on-week. The average price of rebar increased slightly by 1.34% to 3,323 CNY/ton, while cold-rolled prices fell by 1.54% to 3,812 CNY/ton [14][36]. - Total steel inventory decreased significantly, with a total of 1,083 million tons, down 3.68% week-on-week and 24.11% year-on-year [23]. - The profitability of rebar production has improved, with long-process rebar margins increasing by 25 CNY/ton and short-process margins rising by 350 CNY/ton [34][36]. Industrial Metals - The report notes a deepening negative value for copper TC/RC, with the average LME aluminum price rising by 3.63% to 2,412 USD/ton. The cost of electrolytic aluminum in Xinjiang decreased significantly by 16.22%, leading to a substantial profit increase [16][28]. Precious Metals - The report suggests that tariffs may boost demand for safe-haven assets and inflation expectations, with gold prices expected to continue rising. As of April 25, 2025, COMEX gold prices were reported at 3,330.2 USD/ounce, a slight decrease of 0.33% week-on-week [16][48]. New Energy Metals - Lithium production in China saw a significant year-on-year increase of 57.44% in February 2025, with prices for battery-grade lithium carbonate at 69,600 CNY/ton. Nickel and cobalt prices showed mixed trends, with nickel prices declining [15][39][48].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industry [5]. Core Viewpoints - Iron ore prices have shown significant loosening, suggesting a positive outlook for investment opportunities in the steel sector. The market anticipates that after the May Day holiday, iron water production will peak, potentially squeezing iron ore profits, leading to downward price feedback [8][13]. - The steel sector has experienced three years of adjustment, positioning it as a high-value investment opportunity. The profitability and stability of leading enterprises have significantly improved, and the supply structure of iron ore may undergo substantial changes, allowing profits to flow back to the domestic steel industry [8][13]. Summary by Sections Steel Industry - The consumption of rebar has decreased, with a reported national consumption of 2.6 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week decline of 5.07%. The average price of rebar has slightly increased to 3,323 CNY/ton, while cold-rolled prices have decreased to 3,812 CNY/ton, down 1.54% week-on-week [14][37]. - The total steel inventory has decreased significantly, with a total inventory of 1,083 million tons, down 3.68% week-on-week and 24.11% year-on-year [23]. - The profitability of long and short process rebar has increased, with long process rebar profit rising by 25 CNY/ton and short process rebar profit increasing by 350 CNY/ton [34]. Industrial Metals - The copper treatment charge (TC) and refining charge (RC) have deepened into negative territory, indicating challenges in the copper market. The LME aluminum price has risen to 2,412 USD/ton, a week-on-week increase of 3.63% [16]. - The production costs for electrolytic aluminum have decreased significantly, with costs in Xinjiang dropping by 16.22% and profits increasing by 3,455 CNY/ton [16]. Precious Metals - Tariffs may drive up demand for safe-haven assets and inflation expectations, with gold prices expected to continue rising. The COMEX gold price is reported at 3,330.2 USD/ounce, with a slight week-on-week decline of 0.33% [16][49]. New Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate production in China has significantly increased, with a reported production of 56,110 tons in February 2025, a year-on-year increase of 57.44% [15][40]. - The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate is currently 69,600 CNY/ton, reflecting a slight week-on-week decrease of 1.21% [49].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of coal allocation, highlighting a stable economic environment as indicated by the political bureau meeting, which focuses on stability [1][3] - The coal sector is viewed as entering a "Golden Era 2.0," with core value assets expected to rise again due to favorable macroeconomic policies and capital market support [4][12] - The report suggests that coal stocks are attractive for both stable dividend investment and cyclical rebound potential, with expectations of improved demand and prices following policy implementations [4][12] Summary by Sections Investment Logic - The coal sector is seen as a stable dividend investment due to weak domestic economic performance and favorable international monetary policies [4][12] - The cyclical rebound potential is highlighted, with both thermal and coking coal prices expected to stabilize and rebound as supply-demand fundamentals improve [4][12] - The report identifies key coal stocks that are likely to benefit from these trends, categorized into dividend logic, cyclical logic, diversified aluminum elasticity, and growth logic [4][12] Key Indicators Overview - The coal market experienced a slight decline of 0.63%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.02 percentage points [7][9] - The current PE ratio for the coal sector is 10.6, and the PB ratio is 1.2, indicating relatively low valuations compared to other sectors [9] Thermal Coal Industry Chain - As of April 25, the price of Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal is 655 CNY/ton, down 1.21% from the previous week [15] - The operating rate of coal mines in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia is 81%, reflecting a slight decrease [15] - The total inventory at ports in the Bohai Rim is 31.09 million tons, down 2.66% from the previous week [15] Coking Coal Industry Chain - The price of main coking coal at the Jing Tang port remains stable at 1380 CNY/ton [16] - The average daily pig iron production from major steel mills is 2.444 million tons, showing a week-on-week increase [16] - The profitability of major steel mills has improved, supporting the demand for coking coal [16]

2025 年 04 月 27 日 政治局会议传递"稳"字当头，否极泰来重视煤炭配置 ——行业周报 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -29% -19% -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 2024-04 2024-08 2024-12 煤炭 沪深300 相关研究报告 《火电降幅收窄叠加进口减量，否极 泰来重视煤炭配置 —行业周报》- 2025.4.20 《贸易摩擦升级内需有望发力，否极 泰来重视煤炭配置 —行业周报》- 2025.4.13 开 源 证 券 证 券 研 究 煤炭 请务必参阅正文后面的信息披露和法律声明 1/31 《美国关税超预期致市场趋于避险， 重视煤炭攻守兼备 —行业周报》- 2025.4.6 张绪成（分析师） zhangxucheng@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520020003 本周要闻回顾：政治局会议传递"稳"字当头，否极泰来重视煤炭配置 （1）动力煤方面：从价格端来看，本周动力煤港口价格小跌，截至 4 月 25 日，秦 港 Q5500 动力煤平仓价为 655 元/吨，环比下跌 8 元/吨，跌幅 1.21%；CCTD 动力 煤现货价（Q5500）为 66 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The report highlights a rebound in copper prices due to increased downstream activity and accelerated inventory depletion, with copper prices rising by 2.98% in the US, 2.55% in London, and 1.71% in Shanghai. The report notes that the largest copper mine in Peru, Antamina, has halted operations due to an accident, impacting supply. The copper rod operating rate increased to 79.56%, and social inventory of electrolytic copper decreased by 22.15% to 181,700 tons [4][3] - Aluminum prices are rising as domestic inventory decreases, with alumina prices stabilizing after maintenance cuts. The report indicates that electrolytic aluminum margins have improved, suggesting a potential shortage in supply this year [4][3] - Lithium prices are under pressure due to demand growth not meeting expectations, leading to continued inventory accumulation and a downward trend in prices. The report emphasizes the need to monitor potential production cuts and marginal improvements in demand [4][3] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The report provides insights into macroeconomic conditions, noting that initial jobless claims in the US were in line with expectations [8] - The non-ferrous metals sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly increase of 1.50% [13] 2. Industrial Metals 2.1. Copper - Copper prices increased, with London copper up 2.55% and Shanghai copper up 1.71%. Inventory levels decreased significantly, with Shanghai copper inventory down 31.97% [28] 2.2. Aluminum - Aluminum prices rose, with London aluminum increasing by 3.25% and Shanghai aluminum by 1.29%. The report notes a rise in aluminum processing margins [37] 2.3. Lead and Zinc - Lead and zinc prices saw increases, with lead prices up 2.72% and zinc prices up 3.48%. The report indicates improved profitability for mining companies [48] 2.4. Tin and Nickel - Tin prices increased, with London tin up 5.04%. Nickel prices also saw slight increases, but profitability for nickel enterprises has narrowed [63] 3. Energy Metals 3.1. Lithium - Lithium prices are declining, with carbonate lithium down 2.31% to 69,800 yuan/ton. The report highlights the need for monitoring supply-side adjustments [79] 3.2. Cobalt - Cobalt prices have decreased, with domestic cobalt prices at 238,000 yuan/ton. The report notes a decline in profitability for domestic smelting plants [89]