Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints On February 25, affected by the tax period and month - end factors, the capital market showed a tight balance, the bond market fluctuated and adjusted, the main indices of the convertible bond market showed mixed performance, individual convertible bonds were evenly split between gains and losses, yields of US Treasury bonds across various maturities generally increased, and the yields of 10 - year government bonds of major European economies showed divergent trends [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bond Market News 3.1.1 Domestic News - President Xi Jinping met with German Chancellor Merz, emphasizing the importance of Sino - German relations [3] - The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar rose 93 basis points, and the on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed 177 basis points higher [3] - Shanghai issued the "Seven Measures for the Property Market", further reducing housing purchase restrictions [4] - Hong Kong's Financial Secretary Paul Chan announced the 2026/27 budget, stating Hong Kong's plans to cooperate with the mainland on financial development [4] 3.1.2 International News - The US Trade Representative said the "global import tariff" rate on some countries might rise from 10% to 15% or higher [5] 3.1.3 Commodities - WTI April crude oil futures fell 0.32%, Brent April crude oil futures rose 0.11%, spot gold rose 0.52%, and a technical glitch at CME interrupted natural gas and metal futures trading [6] 3.2 Capital Market 3.2.1 Open - Market Operations On February 25, the central bank conducted 409.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 9.5 billion yuan after 400 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured [8] 3.2.2 Capital Interest Rates Affected by the tax period and month - end factors, the capital market was in a tight balance. DR001 rose 1.66bp to 1.384%, and DR007 rose 4.79bp to 1.507%. Other interest rates also showed various changes [9][10] 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics 3.3.1 Interest - Rate Bonds - Due to the stock market rise and rumors about Shanghai's real estate, the bond market fluctuated and adjusted. The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond 250022 rose 1.40bp, and the yield of the 10 - year CDB bond active bond 250220 rose 1.35bp [12] - Multiple bonds were issued, with details such as issue scale, winning bid yield, and multiples provided [13] 3.3.2 Credit Bonds - Five industrial bonds had a trading price deviation of over 10%, with some falling and one rising significantly [13] - Multiple credit - related events occurred, such as debt transfer, extension of consent solicitation period, and being listed as a dishonest被执行人 [16] 3.3.3 Convertible Bonds - The A - share market rose, and the convertible bond market fluctuated narrowly. The CSI Convertible Bond Index and Shenzhen Convertible Bond Index rose, while the Shanghai Convertible Bond Index fell slightly. Individual convertible bonds were evenly split between gains and losses [17] - Some convertible bonds had significant price changes, and there were events such as new listings, proposed downward adjustment of the conversion price, and early redemption announcements [21] 3.3.4 Overseas Bond Markets - In the US bond market, except for the 5 - year Treasury bond yield remaining unchanged, yields of other maturities generally rose. The yield spreads of some maturities narrowed, and the break - even inflation rate of 10 - year TIPS rose [22][23][24] - In the European bond market, the yields of 10 - year government bonds of major European economies showed divergent trends [25] - The daily price changes of Chinese - funded US dollar bonds were provided, with some rising and some falling [27]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes three main themes: Coding, Agent, and AIGC multimodal, which are expected to thrive despite market volatility [2] - Long-term investment opportunities are identified in companies like Alibaba, Tencent, Kuaishou, and Bilibili, which are expected to rebound after the current market fluctuations [2] - Short-term fluctuations in stock prices are noted, particularly influenced by external factors and market sentiment regarding AI applications [2] - The report highlights the competitive landscape in the Agent sector and the potential for growth in the AIGC multimodal space, particularly with the introduction of new models and applications [2] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Shenwan Media Index experienced a weekly decline of 5.10%, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.98% during the same period [2] - The report notes significant volatility in the market, influenced by external factors and the "AI consumption theory" in the US stock market [2] Key Companies and Opportunities - Companies such as Kunlun Wanwei, Perfect World, and Kayi Network are highlighted as key stocks for March, with expectations of strong performance based on their upcoming projects and market positioning [2] - Kunlun Wanwei is noted for its comprehensive AI application strategy and significant revenue potential from short video content [2] - Perfect World is expected to exceed pre-launch reservation numbers for its new game, indicating strong market interest [2] - Kayi Network is anticipated to launch an AI-native social application, which could enhance its market presence [2] Industry Trends - The report discusses the robust performance of domestic AI models and their revenue elasticity, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [2] - The introduction of new multimodal models, such as Google's NanoBanana2, is expected to further advance the industry [2] - The report suggests that the competition among major domestic companies in the Agent sector is intensifying, creating new market opportunities [2]

1、3月1日召开的中国人民政治协商会议第十四届全国委员会常务委员会第十五次会议决定：中国人民 政治协商会议第十四届全国委员会第四次会议于2026年3月4日在北京召开。建议会议的主要议程是：听 取和审议中国人民政治协商会议全国委员会常务委员会工作报告和全国政协十四届三次会议以来提案工 作情况的报告；列席中华人民共和国第十四届全国人民代表大会第四次会议，听取并讨论政府工作报告 及其他有关报告，讨论国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划纲要草案。 2、北京时间2月28日午后，以色列对伊朗发动了先发制人的打击，以消除对以色列的威胁，行动代号 为"咆哮的狮子"。一名以色列政府官员称，以色列正在准备第一阶段为期四天的密集而强有力的联合进 攻。美国军方也预计，将对伊朗进行为期多天的行动。据最新消息，央视记者当地时间3月1日获悉，伊 朗最高领袖哈梅内伊遇袭身亡。伊朗最高国家安全委员会秘书拉里贾尼表示，临时领导委员会将很快成 立，并将选举新的最高领袖。 3、国务院关税税则委员会公告，自2026年3月1日至2026年12月31日，调整《国务院关税税则委员会关 于对原产于加拿大的部分进口商品加征关税的公告》（税委会公告2025年第3号 ...

// 热点头条 // 1. 苹果：将于本周举行春季新品发布会，新品价格或下探，涵盖低价机型；触控版MacBook Pro确认 2026年底推出，坚持Mac与iPad产品线独立。此外，Anthropic大模型Claude在美区Apple Store免费APP 排名升至第一，此前因美国国防部AI权限争端被特朗普政府"拉黑"。 2. SpaceX：正考虑最快于3月秘密递交首次公开募股文件，据知情人士透露，公司可能会在IPO中寻 求"超过1.75万亿美元"的估值，募资规模可能高达500亿美元，这将成为近年来全球规模最大的IPO之 一。 3. OpenAI：创始人奥特曼表示，公司与美国国防部就使用其AI模型和工具达成潜在协议，目前合同尚 未签署。OpenAI将保留对技术保障措施实施方式、模型部署对象及区域的控制权，并将部署范围限定 于云端环境，美国政府同意将OpenAI设定的"红线"纳入合同条款。 4. 英伟达：计划发布一款专为OpenAI及其他客户定制的全新AI处理器，以助力打造更快、更高效的工 具。这款新平台将在圣何塞举办的GTC开发者大会上正式公布，将整合初创公司Groq设计的芯片。同 时，与全球电信巨头合作，发 ...

阿联酋宣布将承担所有受影响和滞留旅客的住宿和接待费用，确保在运营调整期间继续提供必要的服务。 整理 ｜何雨婷 点击上方【36氪随声听】，一键收听大公司热门新闻。听完音频记得添加进入 【我的小程序】 中哟！ 伊朗、以色列等多国相继宣布关闭领空，阿联酋宣布承担所有滞留旅客费用 受2月28日美国和以色列对伊朗发动军事打击影响，伊朗、以色列等多国相继宣布关闭领空，大量国际航班紧急返航或取消。2 月28日晚至3月1日凌晨，阿联酋迪拜国际机场航站楼遭到战火波及，机场航班全面取消，大量旅客被迫滞留。由于地理位置特 殊，迪拜国际机场是全球最繁忙的国际机场之一，迪拜国际机场的关停将影响全球航空网络。 阿联酋通讯社当地时间3月1日报道，阿联酋民航总局表示，过去几个小时，该国各机 场和航空公司已处理了约20200名受部分 航班变更影响的旅客，同时宣布该国政府将承担所有受影响和滞留旅客的住宿和接待费用，确保在运营调整期间继续提供必要 国际油价开盘暴涨超10% 国投白银LOF：3月2日开市起至当日10:30停牌 Guess中国超百家分支机构已注销 奈飞证实收到派拉蒙支付的28亿美元终止费 外媒：OpenAI获1100亿美元融资，英伟达 ...

// 市场要闻 // 1、 2月PMI数据将公布 3月4日，国家统计局将公布2月PMI数据。1月份，制造业PMI为49.3%，比上月下降0.8个百分点，制造业景气水平有所回落。1月份，非制造 业商务活动指数为49.4%，比上月下降0.8个百分点。1月份，综合PMI产出指数为49.8%，比上月下降0.9个百分点。 2、15250亿元逆回购到期 Wind数据显示，本周央行公开市场将有15250亿元逆回购到期，其中周一无逆回购到期，周二至周五分别到期5260亿元、4095亿元、3205亿 元、2690亿元。此外，本周五还有1万亿91天期买断式逆回购到期。 3、美国2月非农就业数据 公布 周五（3月6日），美国2月非农就业数据将 公布 。此外，美国2月失业率、美国1月零售销售月率也将公布。 2026年2月开年以来，锡价凭"疯涨姿态"霸榜金属市场，成为最受瞩目的品种。据长江有色报道，锡价爆火的核心，既源于刚需支撑，更来 自多重利好共振。热门应用领域集中在AI、新能源、半导体三大赛道，AI服务器单机用锡量是传统机型的2-3倍，新能源汽车单车用锡量远 超燃油车，半导体先进封装对锡的需求更是刚性，刚需底座筑牢涨价基础。 东兴 ...

3、 中信证券表示，美军军事调动、伊朗政局变化、冲突外溢范围三个关键信号是否出现潜在变化，将 决定全球市场影响为2025年6月"十二日战争"的放大版，还是走向更极端的情景。 中信证券复盘1970年 以来中东地区八场重大冲突的市场影响，可总结为以下规律：避险资产黄金较美元更优，油价长期仍看 供需，美股表现与美国军事介入程度和战局走势直接相关，而对中国资产并无显著影响。 4、 本周全球市场大事不断！国内方面，2026年全国两会开幕，将讨论政府工作报告与" 十五五 "规 划；中国2月PMI、外汇及黄金储备数据将公布；阿里千问将于3月2日发布AI眼镜。 国际方面，伊朗局 势备受瞩目；俄罗斯、美国及乌克兰将进行新一轮谈判；美联储褐皮书及2月非农就业报告将陆续发 布；2026年世界移动通信大会开幕；苹果将于3月4日举行新品发布会。财报方面，MiniMax、京东、B 站等将发布最新业绩。 • 哈梅内伊遇袭身亡， 伊朗将很快选举最高领袖 • 美国总统特朗普：对伊朗军事行动可能持续4周 • 美以军事打击伊朗， 霍尔木兹海峡航运停摆 • 本周市场聚焦中国两会、伊朗局势， 非农报告及黄金原油走势备受关注 • 造车新势力2月销量遇冷 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: A-share Market in China - **Current Sentiment**: A-share sentiment has rebounded post-Chinese New Year (CNY) with improved turnover and rising expectations towards the National People's Congress (NPC) [1][2] Core Insights - **Investor Sentiment**: The weighted Morgan Stanley A-share Sentiment Indicator (MSASI) improved by 14 percentage points to 59% compared to the previous cutoff date [2] - **Turnover Growth**: Daily turnover for ChiNext, A-shares, and equity futures increased by 11% (to RMB 627 billion), 24% (to RMB 2,434 billion), and 45% (to RMB 414 billion) respectively [2] - **Net Inflows**: Southbound trading received a net inflow of USD 3.1 billion during February 12-25, with year-to-date and month-to-date net inflows reaching USD 16.5 billion and USD 4.4 billion respectively [3] - **Earnings Estimates**: Consensus earnings estimate revision breadth remained negative but showed notable improvement compared to the prior cutoff date [2] Factors Influencing Sentiment - **Rebuilding Positions**: The improvement in sentiment is attributed to the rebuilding of equity positions following the CNY holiday, a break from significant selling by the National Team, and rising expectations for NPC policies focused on technology, innovation, and domestic consumption [4] - **Mixed Macro Signals**: Domestic macroeconomic indicators show mixed signs, with total CNY consumption improving year-on-year due to an additional holiday day, but spending per traveler declined by 0.2% year-on-year [4] - **GDP Growth Target**: The China Economics team anticipates a national GDP growth target of approximately 5% despite provincial downgrades, aiming to anchor confidence in the first year of the 15th Five-Year Plan [4] Offshore Market Challenges - **Pressure on Offshore Market**: The offshore China market, particularly the HSTECH index, is under pressure due to AI disruption concerns and competitive headwinds, especially in services-related sectors [14] - **Earnings Revision Prospects**: The outlook for earnings revisions for large-cap platform companies remains cautious due to ongoing price competition in e-commerce and lukewarm domestic consumption [14] - **Investor Confidence**: Investor confidence in AI capabilities of large-cap internet companies like Tencent and Alibaba needs to be restored through meaningful breakthroughs in AI technology [14] Additional Insights - **Policy Expectations**: Markets are looking for a tech-focused full text of the 15th Five-Year Plan, with any explicit targets on consumption-to-GDP ratios or increased social welfare spending seen as potential upside surprises [13] - **Fiscal Stance**: The fiscal stance is expected to remain broadly unchanged from 2025, with a headline budget deficit of 4% and an augmented deficit of 11.6%, indicating a supply-centric policy mix [13] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the current state of the A-share market, investor sentiment, macroeconomic indicators, and challenges faced by the offshore market.

大摩闭门会-春节消费是分化起点还是整体拐点？ 20260227 摘要 春节期间零售餐饮消费同比提升 5.7%，但"人气旺、理性消费"特征 依旧，价格敏感度高，"以价换量"仍是主线。宏观上，通缩缓慢修复， 地产负财富效应持续，消费反弹受限。 市场预期消费板块盈利与估值触底，2026 年销售收入增速预期与 2025 年持平，估值稳定在 16 倍左右。盈利预期或有小幅下修，但整体趋稳， 部分子板块盈利有望在一季报后上修。 2026 年关注四类结构性机会：线下服务消费修复（旅行、酒店、餐饮、 啤酒），价格触底后边际修复（餐饮、啤酒、体育用品、化妆品、白 酒），上游供给收缩带来的供需再平衡（乳制品），以及海外增长机会 （内容出海、传统服饰 OEM）。 海底捞春节翻台率超预期，同比增长 5%，中期看好同店销售改善与经 营杠杆释放。宏观环境改善叠加出游需求，行业有望回归开店与经营正 循环，EPS CAGR 预计 2025-2027 年达 27%，股息率约 5%提供底部 保护。 Q&A 2026 年春节假期消费数据整体呈现何种特征，是否意味着 2026 年消费进入 向上拐点？ 2026 年下半年有望出现边际价格改善。第三，上 ...

高盛闭门会-首席闪辉前瞻 3 月会议要点，26 年四大投资 主题和近期资金面分析 20260228 摘要 2026 年中国 GDP 增速目标预计维持在 4.5%-5%区间，与市场 4.8% 的预测基本一致，表明经济增速边际放缓，但整体平稳，政府债券发行 规模预计与 2025 年接近，消费品以旧换新补贴规模边际缩减。 全国两会预计延续提升消费能力和增加特定服务供给的主线，可能包含 最低工资或基础养老金上调等福利提升措施，以"持续聚焦、渐进推 进"为特征，通过支持服务业供给端提升质量并扩大规模，以带动服务 消费。 2026 年两会适逢"十五五"规划开局，科技创新和消费的重要性进一 步提升，明确提出未来五年提高居民消费率，需重点跟踪行业政策或量 化目标，识别尚未被市场充分计价的政策支持方向。 民营经济政策基调预计保持支持性，监管取向将继续强调高质量发展， 核心在于培育优质企业、提升股东回报并引导长期投资氛围，市场更偏 好"慢牛"路径。 Q&A 下周全国两会最需要重点关注哪些宏观政策信号，尤其是增长目标与政府债券 发行额度可能如何设定？ 最关键的两个指标是 2026 年 GDP 增长目标与全国人大批准的政府债券发行总 ...