东吴证券研报指出，雅化集团Q4业绩亮眼，略好于预期。公司预告25年归母净利6.0~6.8亿元，同比增 133%~164%，中值6.4亿元；其中Q4归母净利2.7至3.5亿元，同比160至238%，环比34%~75%，中值3.1 亿元。Q4预计公司民爆业务贡献利润1.3-1.5亿元，环比基本持平，全年合计贡献5.5亿，同增10%。公 司布局海外大矿服务业务，目前在非洲、澳洲已获得项目，随着项目推进，将逐步贡献增量，我们预计 未来年复合增长25%+。展望26年，我们预计公司锂盐产能达13万吨，出货量我们预计10万吨+，同比 +67%，权益自有资源规模3.8万吨，若按照碳酸锂价格15万/吨，对应可贡献23亿+利润。同时公司未来 将进一步拓展自有矿山规模。考虑公司碳酸锂涨价弹性，给予26年16x估值，对应目标价38元，维持"买 入"评级。 ...

文 ： 华创证券首席经济学家 张瑜 执业证号：S0360518090001 联系人： 付春生(18482259975) 报告摘要 伊朗骚乱似有平息，但"灰犀牛"的地缘风险仍存。本篇报告主要概述伊朗的基本经济国情，侧重自然资 源、优势产业和出口结构。 一、伊朗近期发生了什么？ 经济困境引发各地抗议，逐步升级为伊朗全国大规模骚乱，伤亡人数是过往动荡之最。 去年11月开始，伊 朗多地因物价上涨、货币贬值等问题发生抗议，随后扩散至全境并出现暴力骚乱和大规模伤亡，期间全面 断网8天。1月下旬局势趋于缓和。1月21日伊朗官方称近期骚乱事件导致3117人死亡。 地缘冲突风险仍存 。1月22日特朗普表示美国"大型舰队"正驶向伊朗周边。 从经济地理位置看，伊朗对霍尔木兹海峡具有强大控制力。 霍尔木兹海峡是全球能源贸易的咽喉要道，流 经该海峡的石油和其他液体燃料贸易量约占全球消费量约20%，占全球海运贸易量约27%，流经该海峡的 LNG贸易量约占全球LNG贸易量的20%，约占全球天然气贸易量的9%。 二、伊朗的主要自然资源 1、石油：全球探明原油储量第三，目前日产量约320万桶/日，出口量约180万桶/日。 伊朗探明原油储量约 ...

Core Viewpoint - The decline in shares of Mixue Group is primarily attributed to UBS downgrading the company's rating from "Buy" to "Neutral" and lowering the target price from HKD 490 to HKD 468 [3][7]. Company Performance - As of January 28, Mixue Group's shares fell over 10%, reaching a low of HKD 396 during trading [1]. - The company faces risks of declining gross margins due to rising raw material costs, particularly for key ingredients like lemons, a reduction in delivery subsidies, and intensified industry competition [4][9]. Market Outlook - Despite the downgrade by UBS, domestic institutions remain optimistic about Mixue Group's growth prospects. West Securities noted that the company is accelerating its overseas expansion, with store performance exceeding expectations [4][10]. - Mixue Group plans to open three new stores in the U.S. by December 2025, targeting major cities like Los Angeles and New York. The menu will include high-sweetness options and plant-based milk to cater to local tastes [4][10]. International Expansion - The company is set to open an exclusive overseas franchise channel in November 2025, targeting 16 countries and regions, with Southeast Asia identified as a key area for expansion [5][10]. - In Vietnam, the total cost for a franchise store is approximately 10 billion VND, equivalent to 265,000 RMB, leveraging local supply chains and standardized support systems [5][10]. - Mixue Group has signed a procurement order for 4 billion coffee beans with Brazil, with plans to establish a supply chain factory, aiming to open its first store in São Paulo by March 2026 [5][10]. Financial Projections - West Securities has raised its profit forecasts for Mixue Group, expecting net profits attributable to shareholders to reach 6.1 billion, 7 billion, and 8.1 billion RMB for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively [5][10]. - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 25, 22, and 19 times for the years 2025 to 2027, with a "Buy" rating assigned [5][10].

海外运力加速、太空算力落地在即 近期马斯克陆续表态：1）特斯拉和SpaceX未来三年计划各自建设100GW/年产能，马斯克预计2-3年内 规模化太空算力成为现实；2）星舰今年目标完全复用、进入太空成本将下降100倍。三年内星舰发射频 率将超每小时1次，终极目标每年生产1万艘星舰。按星舰100吨次的近地运力计算，年运载量可达100万 吨；若按1吨/颗卫星计算，3年内年发射量可达百万颗，较当前3000颗/年实现非线性增长，空间远大。 智通财经APP获悉，东吴证券发布研报称，太空商业活动迎来爆发期。海外方面，马斯克提出星舰将实 现完全复用并大幅提升发射频率。国内进程同步加速，已提交超20万颗卫星频轨申请，中国星网等星座 计划将进入密集发射阶段。技术层面，柔性钙钛矿组件因其高效轻薄的特性，成为太空光伏供能的关键 路径。相关产业链有望迎来高速发展机遇。 东吴证券主要观点如下： 国内产业化提速、战略重视度高 投资建议：商业航天+低轨卫星加速发展背景下，太空光伏供能最优、或有望迎来高速发展。1）推荐 太空电源：钧达股份（合作尚翼布局卫星钙钛矿+CPI膜）、明阳智能（布局钙钛矿、HJT技术及砷化 镓）、关注东方日升（P型HJ ...

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Technology Index rose by 0.5% and the Hang Seng Index increased by 1.35% on January 27 [1] - The Tianhong Technology ETF (159128) recorded a trading volume exceeding 77 million yuan, with a turnover rate over 4%, and a net subscription of 31 million units [1] - The Tianhong Technology ETF has seen continuous net inflows for 11 days, accumulating over 190 million yuan [1] - The Tianhong Hang Seng Technology ETF (520920) had a trading volume exceeding 320 million yuan and has experienced 16 consecutive trading days of net inflows, totaling over 2.8 billion yuan [1] - The Tianhong Technology ETF closely tracks the Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index, allowing T+0 trading and is not restricted by QDII quotas [1] - The Tianhong Hang Seng Technology ETF focuses on leading technology companies in Hong Kong and can invest in quality tech companies not included in the Hong Kong Stock Connect through the QDII mechanism [1] Group 2 - Tencent's CEO Ma Huateng emphasized a decentralized approach to AI strategy, focusing on user needs and privacy [2] - The semiconductor industry is expected to experience a comprehensive price increase, driven by accelerating AI application deployment [2] - Southbound capital is flowing into the market, with the information technology sector being a major beneficiary [2] - Global AI tech leaders are about to report earnings, and overseas investors are adopting a cautious stance towards US AI tech earnings [2] - The Hong Kong market is expected to continue structural growth supported by Fed rate cut expectations and improving A-share sentiment [2] - The demand for AI is anticipated to improve, making Hong Kong technology stocks a promising investment direction [2]

王紫敬 ◎张玮华 记者 刘怡鹤 商业航天板块自2025年末启动一轮火爆行情并延续至今。日前，东吴证券研究所所长助理、计算机首席 分析师王紫敬在"上证首席讲坛"发表演讲并接受上海证券报记者专访时表示，商业航天将在2025年底到 2026年上半年迎来决定性拐点，并成为贯穿2026年全年的投资核心主线之一。建议优选龙头标的，在火 箭、卫星、SpaceX供应链等投资方向上实现平铺，把握市场分歧与波动机遇。 多因素支撑商业航天行情 王紫敬认为，支撑商业航天本轮强势行情的重要逻辑是，我国在大型可回收液体火箭领域发生了"从0到 1"的质变，同时产业具有足够宏大的未来叙事。 王紫敬认为，上述头部企业一旦登陆资本市场，将有助于提高整个商业航天板块标的的质量，并扩大其 容量，以弥补当前优质标的的稀缺性。SpaceX若登陆资本市场，可能成为有史以来市值最大的上市公 司之一。这些都将进一步提升资本市场对商业航天领域的关注度，并提振整个板块的估值中枢。 产业方面，今年最主要的看点在于我国一批新型号火箭的首飞，及其在可重复使用技术、卫星互联网组 网方面的突破。 "今年国内预计将有近十发新型号火箭首飞，我对此充满信心，相信创造行业历史的时 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the successful IPO of the snack retail company "Ming Ming Hen Mang," which has seen significant interest from investors and is expected to boost the snack sector's visibility in the market [1][3]. Company Overview - "Ming Ming Hen Mang" is a leading snack retail chain in China, formed by the merger of two brands: "Liang Shi Hen Mang" and "Zhao Yi Ming Snacks" [4]. - The company operates through a franchise model, with a product range that includes baked goods, snacks, and beverages [4]. - As of September 30, 2025, the company has a network of 19,517 stores, with approximately 59% located in county and town areas, covering 1,341 counties [4]. Financial Performance - For the first nine months of 2025, "Ming Ming Hen Mang" reported revenues of 46.371 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 75.2%, and an adjusted net profit of 1.81 billion yuan, up 240.8% [3]. Market Position and Growth Potential - The company is recognized as the largest chain retailer in the snack and beverage sector in China, with a projected GMV of 55.5 billion yuan in 2024 [5][6]. - The snack retail market in China is valued at over 3.7 trillion yuan and is experiencing significant structural changes, including a shift towards specialized retail formats and market penetration into lower-tier cities [6]. Investor Interest - The IPO attracted major institutional investors, including Tencent and Temasek, with a total subscription of 195 million USD, indicating strong market confidence in the company's growth potential [3]. - Several brokerage firms have published reports highlighting the significance of "Ming Ming Hen Mang's" IPO, suggesting it will catalyze interest in the snack sector [5][7]. Competitive Advantages - "Ming Ming Hen Mang" boasts a competitive edge through its extensive store network, with nearly 20,000 locations, and a strong presence in lower-tier markets [7]. - The company offers a diverse product range with approximately 4,000 SKUs, including customized products, and maintains lower average prices compared to traditional supermarkets [7].

每日经济新闻 证券ETF（512880）跟踪的是证券公司指数（399975），该指数主要反映证券行业整体表现，其成分涵 盖A股市场上的证券公司，具有较高的行业集中度。该指数风格偏向于周期性与成长性结合，整体表现 随市场波动较大。 风险提示：提及个股仅用于行业事件分析，不构成任何个股推荐或投资建议。指数等短期涨跌仅供参 考，不代表其未来表现，亦不构成对基金业绩的承诺或保证。观点可能随市场环境变化而调整，不构成 投资建议或承诺。提及基金风险收益特征各不相同，敬请投资者仔细阅读基金法律文件，充分了解产品 要素、风险等级及收益分配原则，选择与自身风险承受能力匹配的产品，谨慎投资。 1月27日，证券ETF（512880）收跌超1%，非银金融前景广阔，回调或可布局。 东吴证券指出，证券行业受益于市场回暖与政策环境友好。2026年1月交易量环比显著提升，截至1月23 日，当月日均股基交易额为34578亿元，较上月提升58.18%；两融余额同比亦有大幅增长。政策层面， 证监会正式发布《公开募集证券投资基金业绩比较基准指引》，旨在健全基础制度，推动公募基金业绩 比较基准管理规范化，强化基金管理人内控与主体责任。行业转型有望带来 ...

（原标题：行业整合提速 东方财富证券注册资本增至127亿元） 1月27日，天眼查App显示，东方财富证券股份有限公司于1月20日完成工商变更登记，注册资本由121亿元人民币增加至127亿元，增资额为6亿 元，增幅为4.96%。此次变更同时涉及公司多位高级管理人员的职位调整。这一系列动作发生在证券行业并购重组日益频繁、市场集中度加速提 升的背景下。这凸显出券商正通过持续补充资本实力，积极应对行业格局重塑所带来的机遇与挑战。 来源：天眼查 东方财富证券控股股东为上市公司东方财富信息股份有限公司（简称"东方财富"，证券代码300059）。股权结构清晰集中，东方财富直接持有公 司99.95%的股份，其全资子公司上海东方财富证券投资咨询有限公司持有剩余0.05%的股份。 公开信息显示，东方财富证券股东所持股份目前均未被质押或冻结，股权状态稳定。目前，公司旗下控股多家专业子公司，形成了多元化的业务 布局，主要包括：上海东方财富期货有限公司、西藏东方财富投资管理有限公司、西藏东财基金管理有限公司及西藏东方财富创新资本有限公 司。 来源：天眼查 从资本运作的整体脉络来看，东方财富证券在2025年的融资安排呈现出多层次、多渠道 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent public fund reports for Q4 2025 reveal a shift in market consensus, highlighting the contrasting trends between active and passive funds, with active fund sizes declining while passive funds see significant growth [1] Group 1: Fund Size and Redemption Trends - Active fund size decreased by 173.9 billion to 3.97 trillion, while passive fund size increased by 142.6 billion to 5.48 trillion, indicating a continued lead of passive funds over active funds [1] - Despite the decline in active fund size, the net redemption of actively managed equity funds has narrowed, suggesting that many funds have reached a "break-even" point, leading to a historical high in net outflows since 2016 [1] - The scale of funds that have not yet "broken even" is relatively limited, making it unlikely to see a repeat of the concentrated redemption wave in the second half of 2025 [1] Group 2: Overall Positioning and Stock Allocation - The overall stock position of public active equity funds decreased to 86.47%, down 0.77 percentage points from the previous quarter, indicating a trend of active reduction by fund managers [2] - The stock position in Hong Kong stocks saw a more pronounced decline, with the total scale of active fund holdings in Hong Kong stocks dropping from 19.26% to 16.23%, a decrease of 3.03% [2] Group 3: Sector Trends and Fund Characteristics - Resource sector holdings reached a historical high, increasing by 3.34% to 13.36%, marking the most significant growth among sectors [4] - The issuance of bond funds with embedded rights surged, reaching the highest quarterly issuance since 2020, with mixed bond secondary fund scales growing by 260.3 billion, indicating a shift towards lower-risk investments [4] - A notable "high-low switch" in active fund allocations was observed, reflecting a negative correlation between valuation percentiles and overweight ratios, indicating a strategic shift in fund management [4] - The number of stocks held by fund managers increased to 2,467, up from 2,379, suggesting a rise in the diversity of holdings among fund managers [4][5]