Core Viewpoint - The global precious metals market has experienced a significant pullback, with spot gold dropping over 6% on February 2, reflecting a fragile structure after a sharp short-term rise. The long-term outlook for the non-ferrous sector remains strong due to factors such as the restructuring of the monetary credit system, supply-side rigidity, and new demand dynamics, although short-term risks of correction should be monitored [1][3]. Group 1: Market Reactions and Trends - The non-ferrous sector has shown volatility, with traditional valuation models becoming ineffective as market sentiment and geopolitical factors increasingly influence prices [3]. - The nomination of Waller as the next Federal Reserve Chair has led to expectations of policy shifts, including a significant reduction in the Fed's balance sheet, which could impact liquidity and future interest rate cuts [3]. - On January 30, international gold prices recorded their largest single-day drop in 40 years, indicating heightened volatility and risk in the gold market, prompting experts to advise caution among investors [3]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities and Risks - The non-ferrous sector presents both long-term investment opportunities and short-term risks, necessitating a rational approach from investors based on their risk tolerance [1]. - The recent performance of the non-ferrous ETF Huatai-PineBridge (159652) indicates a significant drop in component stocks, with many experiencing declines of over 5% [2][6]. - Despite the recent downturn, the long-term fundamentals for industrial metals like copper, aluminum, and tin remain strong, with expectations for price recovery post-correction [7]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the current market dynamics, including high global debt and geopolitical uncertainties, provide a solid foundation for precious metal prices to trend positively in the long run [4]. - The non-ferrous ETF Huatai-PineBridge (159652) is highlighted for its comprehensive coverage of various metal sectors, positioning it well to benefit from the ongoing supercycle in non-ferrous metals [5][9]. - The ETF's index has shown a cumulative return leading its peers, with a significant portion of its gains driven by earnings rather than valuation increases, indicating a favorable investment environment [11][12].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the lithium battery industry, focusing on lithium carbonate prices, battery materials, and emerging technologies such as solid-state batteries and sodium-ion batteries [1][2][3][4]. Key Points and Arguments Lithium Carbonate Market - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to remain above 150,000 yuan, with potential for further increases, driven by strong demand in the energy storage sector and supply-side disruptions [1][10][11]. - The market fundamentals for lithium carbonate are improving, with a projected average price exceeding 200,000 yuan this year [11][12]. Impact of Resource Prices - Resource prices above 150,000 yuan have led to demand delays from risk-averse downstream companies, while those with higher risk tolerance are more accepting of prices between 200,000 to 250,000 yuan [3][10]. - The overall impact of resource prices on demand remains controllable, with sufficient potential projects in the domestic energy storage market [3][12]. Battery Materials and Pricing - March is identified as a critical time for lithium battery materials, with significant price fluctuations observed, particularly in lithium hexafluorophosphate, which dropped from 180,000 yuan to approximately 94,000 yuan [6]. - The upcoming negotiations for materials like copper foil and separators are expected to provide a pricing window for recovery, as the market adjusts from overheated prices [6][7]. Battery Sector Dynamics - The competitive landscape in the battery sector is stable, with leading companies like CATL experiencing a valuation drop to around 17 times PE, indicating a potential absolute return of 30%-40% [7][8]. - Companies with a high proportion of energy storage, such as EVE Energy, face less pressure, making it an opportune time for left-side positioning in the battery sector [8]. Technological Advancements - Solid-state batteries are highlighted as a key area of development, with significant progress expected in 2026, including the construction of production lines and the upcoming China Solid-State Battery Innovation Development Forum [9][15]. - Sodium-ion batteries are also gaining traction, with new products being launched by leading companies like CATL, particularly for light commercial vehicles [9]. Equipment Demand and Market Outlook - The demand for lithium battery equipment is robust, with expectations for continuous expansion in production capacity until at least 2027 [13][14]. - Equipment companies are experiencing improved cash flow due to increased order volumes and higher upfront payment ratios, leading to anticipated rapid growth in revenue and profitability in 2026 [14]. Additional Important Insights - The national agricultural electricity price policy is expected to accelerate the initiation of energy storage projects, further supporting market demand [5]. - The overall sentiment in the lithium battery sector remains optimistic, with a focus on stable and resilient investment opportunities in companies like Tianhua, Dazhong City, and Shengxin Lithium Energy [12][16].

【东吴电新曾朵红团队】每日速递 市场快报 今日上证综指下跌0.96%，深证成指下跌0.66%，创业板指上涨1.27%，电气设备板块指数为3578.47，下跌0.22％， 在申万一级行业中排名10/28。 公告纵览 【国轩高科】预计25年归母净利25亿–30亿元，同比增长107.16%-148.59%。 【阿特斯】预计2025年归母净利9- 【东吴电新曾朵红团队】每日速递 市场快报 【华宝新能】预计25年归母净利1，550-2，300万元，同期下降90.40%-93.53%。 今日上证综指下跌0.96%，深证成指下跌0.66%，创业板指上涨1.27%，电气设备板块指数为3578.47，下跌0.22％， 在申万一级行业中排名10/28。 公告纵览 【国轩高科】预计25年归母净利25亿–30亿元，同比增长107.16%-148.59%。 【阿特斯】预计2025年归母净利9-11亿元，同比下滑51%–60% 【合盛硅业】预计25年亏损28-33亿元，受工业硅与有机硅价格下行及光伏板块产线停产、资产减值（约11–13亿 元）影响。 【天华新能】预计25年归母净利1.15–1.3亿元，同比增长104.74%–131.45 ...

申万宏源2026年第一期十大金股组合表现亮眼，1月单月整体上涨16.89%。 其中7只A股平均涨幅17.37%，分别跑赢上证综指、沪深300指数13.61、15.72个百分点。 3只港股平均涨幅15.77%，跑赢恒生指数8.92个百分点。 【华鲁恒升】：国内化工品 "反内卷"政策陆续出台，行业格局确定性优化；低成本核心优势不断巩固，未来规划 清晰，成长路径确定性高，有望实现量价齐升。 2月申万宏源十大金股 首推 "铁三角"： 【贵州茅台】：市场化改革理顺产品、价格、渠道体系，夯实底 申万宏源2026年第一期十大金股组合表现亮眼，1月单月整体上涨16.89%。 其中7只A股平均涨幅17.37%，分别跑赢上证综指、沪深300指数13.61、15.72个百分点。 3只港股平均涨幅15.77%，跑赢恒生指数8.92个百分点。 2月申万宏源十大金股 首推 "铁三角"： 【贵州茅台】：市场化改革理顺产品、价格、渠道体系，夯实底部并打开长期成长空间。 春节临近且 i茅台拓宽消费者触达，动销有望超预期。 【帝尔激光】：公司在主业光伏领域保持较强竞争力，新技术升级提升价值量；先进封装 / 半导体等非光伏业务 迎放量拐点，优化盈 ...

其中7只A股平均涨幅17.37%，分别跑赢上证综指、沪深300指数13.61、15.72个百分点。 3只港股平均涨幅15.77%，跑赢恒生指数8.92个百分点。 2月申万宏源十大金股 【申万宏源】2026年第一期十大金股组合表现及2月推荐 申万宏源2026年第一期十大金股组合表现亮眼，1月单月整体上涨16.89%。 【华鲁恒升】：国内化工品 "反内卷"政策陆续出台，行业格局确定性优化；低成本核心优势不断巩固，未来规划 清晰，成长路径确定性高，有望实现量价齐升。 【帝尔激光】：公司在主业光伏领域保持较强竞争力，新技术升级提升价值量；先进封装 / 半导体等非光伏业务 迎放量拐点，优化盈利结构。 除了 "铁三角"，申万宏源看好的其余七只金股为： 首推 "铁三角"： 【申万宏源】2026年第一期十大金股组合表现及2月推荐 申万宏源2026年第一期十大金股组合表现亮眼，1月单月整体上涨16.89%。 其中7只A股平均涨幅17.37%，分别跑赢上证综指、沪深300指数13.61、15.72个百分点。 3只港股平均涨幅15.77%，跑赢恒生指数8.92个百分点。 2月申万宏源十大金股 首推 "铁三角"： 【贵州茅台】：市场 ...

股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.02.02 鹰派扰动，价格巨震 [Table_Industry] 有色金属 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 李鹏飞(分析师) | 010-83939783 | lipengfei2@gtht.com | S0880519080003 | | 魏雨迪(分析师) | 021-38674763 | weiyudi@gtht.com | S0880520010002 | | 刘小华(分析师) | 021-38038434 | liuxiaohua@gtht.com | S0880523120003 | | 王宏玉(分析师) | 021-38038343 | wanghongyu@gtht.com | S0880523060005 | | 梁琳(分析师) | 021-23185845 | lianglin@gtht.com | S0880525070014 | | 李阳(分析师) | 021-23185618 | liyang7@gtht.com | S088052504 ...

| 指数 | 收盘 | | 涨跌（％） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | （点） | 1 日 | 5 日 | 1 月 | | 上证指数 | 4118 | -0.96 | 3.85 | -0.44 | | 深证综指 | 2684 | -0.78 | 5.71 | -2.27 | | 风格指数 | 昨日 | 近 1 个月 | 近 6 个月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | (％) | | | | | 大盘指数 | -0.81 | 0.63 | 13.2 | | 中盘指数 | -1.67 | 10.42 | 31.3 | | 小盘指数 | -1.05 | 8.78 | 24.7 | 涨幅居前 行业(％) 昨日 近 1 个月 近 6 个月 通信设备 4.32 4.7 87.85 种植业 3.61 12.69 19.72 渔业 3.35 10.96 8.63 影视院线 2.39 12.32 5.47 橡胶 2.07 10.83 17.04 跌幅居前 行业(％) 昨日 近 1 个月 近 6 个月 贵金属 -8.87 59.71 116.25 工 ...

Key Points - Hongbaoli's epoxy propylene comprehensive technology renovation project has entered the preliminary preparation stage for trial production [1] - Jerry Holdings signed a sales contract for gas turbine generator sets for a US data center worth 1.265 billion yuan [1] - Aoshikang plans to invest 1.82 billion yuan in the construction of a high-end printed circuit board project [1] - BGI Genomics intends to acquire 100% equity of Sanjian Qifa and Huada Xifeng [1] - Tianqi Lithium's Talisman third-phase chemical-grade lithium concentrate expansion project is expected to produce its first batch of qualified chemical-grade lithium concentrate by January 30, 2026 [1] - Huayou Cobalt plans to collaborate on building an integrated battery industry chain project in Indonesia [1] Performance - Guangdong Mingzhu expects a net profit increase of 2908.49%-3577.04% year-on-year for 2025 [1] - Sainuo Medical anticipates a net profit increase of 2767%-3233% year-on-year for 2025 [1] - Lingdian Electric Control forecasts a net profit increase of 640.16%-804.64% year-on-year for 2025 [1] - Bojie Co. expects a net profit increase of 484.16%-618.97% year-on-year for 2025 [1] - Xiangcai Co. anticipates a net profit increase of 266.41%-403.81% year-on-year for 2025 [1] - Xinyi Sheng expects a net profit increase of 231%-249% year-on-year for 2025, with Q4 performance exceeding expectations [1] - Zhongji Xuchuang forecasts a net profit increase of 89.50%-128.17% year-on-year for 2025 [1] - Zhongjin Company anticipates a net profit increase of 50%-85% year-on-year for 2025 [1] - China Merchants Shekou expects a net profit decrease of 69%-75% year-on-year for 2025 [1] - Western Gold anticipates a net profit increase of 46.78%-69.23% year-on-year for 2025, driven by increased sales volume and prices of its own gold products [1] - Shandong Gold expects a net profit increase of 56%-66% year-on-year for 2025 [1] - Cambrian anticipates a net profit of 1.85 billion to 2.15 billion yuan for 2025, turning from loss to profit [1] - 360 Company expects a profit of 213 million to 318 million yuan for 2025, with Q4 performance significantly exceeding expectations [1] - Seres reported January automobile sales of 45,900 units, a year-on-year increase of 104.85% [1] - GAC Group reported January automobile sales of 116,600 units, a year-on-year increase of 18.47% [1] Buyback and Increase - GoerTek has increased the total amount for share repurchase to no less than 1 billion yuan and no more than 1.5 billion yuan [2]

（来源：南湖晚报） 来自吉尔吉斯斯坦的采购经理达尼阿尔，此行专为寻找高品质家纺面料而来。在了解多家企业后，他频 频点头："嘉兴很多工厂专注细分领域几十年，工艺精湛、响应迅速，价格也极具竞争力。"目前，他已 与嘉善顺源家纺有限公司等企业进入付款条款等细节谈判阶段，有望在短期内敲定订单。 供应商同样感受到这场精准对接带来的价值跃升。赛诺（浙江）聚氨酯新材料有限公司总经理罗琼首次 参与此类活动便收获意外之喜。当天上午，一位香港客商在参观其智能睡眠产品线时，对一款具备心率 监测与自动调节功能的电动床架表现出浓厚兴趣，当场询问报价与交货周期。"政府提前对采购商资质 做了筛选，我们省去了大量背调成本，可以全身心投入产品展示和技术交流。"罗琼说。 浙江久景制冷设备股份有限公司的外贸销售经理王晓雷也在现场与沙特买家达成初步合作意向，对方对 该公司创新设计的无中柱商用冰箱和大冰块制冰机赞不绝口。"今年我们的目标是销售额翻倍，"王晓雷 表示，"有了'贸易之桥'这样的高质量对接平台，我们可以低成本触达有实力的海外客户。" 从"走出去参展"到"请进来验厂"，嘉兴正以更加开放、专业、高效的姿态融入全球贸易网络。随着"贸 易之桥"系列活 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the industry and specific companies within the non-ferrous metals sector, highlighting a positive outlook for gold and silver prices in the medium to long term [2][4]. Core Views - The new Federal Reserve Chairman's policies have raised concerns, leading to a correction in gold and silver prices. However, the long-term trend remains bullish due to central bank gold purchases and a weakening dollar credit [2][8]. - The report emphasizes the importance of geopolitical factors and macroeconomic policies in influencing metal prices, particularly in the context of expanding domestic demand in China [8][24]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry and Stock Performance - The SW Non-ferrous Index increased by 3.37% during the week, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.44% [8]. - Key companies recommended for investment include Zijin Mining, China Molybdenum, and Yunnan Aluminum, among others, with a focus on their earnings forecasts and valuations [2][8]. 2. Base Metals - Aluminum prices are influenced by geopolitical tensions and domestic production adjustments, with a notable increase in aluminum inventory [24][28]. - Copper prices are expected to remain stable, supported by a weak dollar and increased import activity, despite a generally subdued demand environment [45][48]. - Zinc prices have shown volatility due to external factors and domestic supply disruptions, with a recent increase in prices observed [49][50]. 3. Precious Metals and Minor Metals - Gold and silver prices are projected to rise in the medium term, driven by central bank purchases and a weakening dollar [2][8]. - The report highlights the potential for price increases in cobalt and nickel due to supply constraints and geopolitical factors [2][24][63]. 4. Rare Earths - The report does not provide specific insights into rare earths, focusing instead on the broader non-ferrous metals market [10].