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中美关税疑云再起,重点行业节能降碳支持管理办法印发 | 投研报告
Industry Overview - The chemical sector experienced a decline of 5.83% from October 13 to October 17, 2025, ranking 26th among all sectors, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 4.36 percentage points and the ChiNext Index by 0.12 percentage points [2][3] Key Trends and Recommendations - The chemical industry is expected to continue its trend of divergence in 2025, with a focus on synthetic biology, pesticides, chromatography media, sweeteners, vitamins, light hydrocarbon chemicals, COC polymers, and MDI [2] - Synthetic biology is anticipated to reach a pivotal moment, driven by energy structure adjustments, with traditional chemical companies needing to adapt to energy consumption and carbon tax costs [2] - The third-generation refrigerants are entering a high prosperity cycle due to supply constraints and increasing demand from markets like Southeast Asia [3] - Electronic specialty gases are critical for the semiconductor industry, with domestic companies poised to benefit from the increasing demand for high-end production capacity [4] - The trend towards light hydrocarbon chemicals is becoming global, with a shift from heavy naphtha to lighter feedstocks like ethane and propane, which are more cost-effective and environmentally friendly [5] - The industrialization of COC/COP materials is accelerating in China, driven by domestic production capabilities and the need for supply chain security [6] - Potash fertilizer prices are expected to rebound as major suppliers reduce output, leading to a tightening supply-demand balance [7][8] - The MDI market is characterized by oligopoly, with a favorable supply structure anticipated as demand recovers, making it a resilient chemical product [9] Price Tracking - Significant price increases were noted for liquid chlorine (553.33%), sulfur (8.80%), and acrylic acid (3.68%), while notable declines were seen in nitrile rubber (-33.13%) and NYMEX natural gas futures (-7.98%) [10] - A total of 165 chemical enterprises reported production capacity impacts, with 8 new maintenance activities and 4 restarts recorded [11]
中美关税疑云再起,重点行业节能降碳支持管理办法印发
Huaan Securities· 2025-10-22 05:40
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [2] Core Views - The chemical sector experienced a decline of 5.83% from October 13 to October 17, 2025, ranking 26th among all sectors, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 4.36 percentage points [6][24] - The report highlights a continued trend of divergence in the chemical industry in 2025, recommending focus on sectors such as synthetic biology, pesticides, chromatography media, sweeteners, vitamins, light hydrocarbon chemicals, COC polymers, and MDI [6] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The chemical sector's performance was ranked 26th with a decline of 5.83% during the specified week, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.47% [6][24] - The top three performing sectors were banking (4.89%), coal (4.17%), and food and beverage (0.86%), while the bottom three were electronics (-7.14%), media (-6.27%), and automotive (-5.99%) [24][25] Key Industry Dynamics - The report discusses the impact of U.S.-China trade tensions, particularly the U.S. imposing additional tariffs on Chinese goods, which has led to increased uncertainty in the global chemical supply chain [37] - It notes that the chemical industry in China is considering a comprehensive restructuring to phase out outdated and loss-making plants as part of a broader strategy to enhance competitiveness [37] Recommendations - Focus on synthetic biology, which is expected to see significant growth due to the shift towards low-energy products and materials [6] - The upcoming quota policy for third-generation refrigerants is anticipated to create a high-growth cycle, benefiting companies with high quota shares [7] - The electronic specialty gases market is highlighted as a critical area for domestic substitution opportunities, driven by rapid upgrades in the semiconductor industry [8][10] - Light hydrocarbon chemicals are identified as a global trend, with a shift towards lighter raw materials expected to reshape the industry [10] - The COC polymer sector is noted for its accelerated domestic industrialization, with potential breakthroughs expected from local companies [11] - The potassium fertilizer market is projected to recover as international supply constraints ease, with companies like Nutrien and Canpotex reducing production [12] - The MDI market is characterized by oligopolistic supply dynamics, with a positive outlook as demand recovers [14]
2025年1-8月中国初级形态的塑料产量为9707.3万吨 累计增长11.6%
Chan Ye Xin Xi Wang· 2025-10-22 05:16
Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the growth of China's primary plastic production, indicating a significant increase in both monthly and cumulative production figures for 2025, suggesting a robust market outlook for the plastic products industry in China [1] Industry Summary - In August 2025, China's primary plastic production reached 12.66 million tons, marking a year-on-year growth of 12.8% [1] - From January to August 2025, the cumulative production of primary plastics in China totaled 97.073 million tons, reflecting a cumulative growth of 11.6% [1] - The data indicates a positive trend in the plastic products industry, with expectations for continued growth in the coming years [1] Company Summary - Listed companies in the plastic sector include Hengyi Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, Shanghai Petrochemical, Sinopec, China National Petroleum, Huajin Co., Tongkun Co., Hengli Petrochemical, Satellite Chemical, and ST Hongda [1] - The report is part of a comprehensive industry analysis provided by Zhiyan Consulting, which specializes in in-depth industry research and consulting services [1]
能源化工周报:低位震荡-20251021
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-10-21 09:38
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of ethylene glycol continued to decline this week. Although the fundamentals of ethylene glycol have not undergone significant adjustments, the intensification of Sino - US trade frictions has led to a significant increase in market risk - aversion sentiment. Polyester demand shows no outstanding performance, with stable operation and neutral pick - up. Yulong Petrochemical's supply has gradually entered the market, resulting in sufficient on - site spot liquidity. - Next week's prediction: On the cost side, the bearish fundamentals of crude oil will continue to suppress price performance and limit the rebound and repair space, with overall fluctuations. On the supply side, the operation rate remains high, but as coal prices rise and squeeze profits, the coal - based operation rate may decline later. On the demand side, the domestic market demand remains strong, but the issuance of new export orders is slow, and the weaving market lacks confidence in the future market. In terms of port inventory, there are more ethylene glycol vessel arrivals this month, the polyester operation rate is relatively stable, and the downstream pick - up volume from ports remains neutral. - Overall, it is expected that ethylene glycol will operate at a low level, in the range of 3950 - 4100 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1盘面及现货情况 (Disk and Spot Conditions) - **Disk Trend**: Continued to decline. This week, the trading volume was 751,900 lots, and the open interest was 340,400 lots (- 87,000 lots). The closing price of the MEG main contract on October 20 was 4003 yuan/ton, a decrease of 108 yuan/ton compared to the closing price of 4111 yuan/ton on October 13, with an overall change of - 2.63%. The settlement price on October 20 was 4030 yuan/ton, a decrease of 82 yuan/ton compared to the settlement price of 4112 yuan/ton on October 13, with an overall change of - 1.99% [8][12][14]. - **Spot Market**: For domestic spot, the higher transaction price was 4196 (October 13), and the lower transaction price was 4071 (October 17). From October 12 - 18, the weekly price data showed that in Fujian it was 4171 yuan/ton (- 59), in Zhangjiagang it was 4130.5/ton (- 27.83), and in Dongguan it was 4171 yuan/ton (- 59). The foreign - market price was 488.2 US dollars/ton (- 3.47). This week's average basis was 91 yuan/ton, compared with last week's average of 90.33 yuan/ton. The domestic and foreign markets of ethylene glycol remained inverted, with an overall level of 70 - 100 US dollars/ton [15]. 3.2 MEG装置、库存及生产利润情况 (MEG Device, Inventory, and Production Profit Situation) - **Device Operation Rate**: The overall operation rate from October 14 - 20 was 70.93%, compared with 70.22% from October 9 - 13. The oil - based operation rate was 76.31%, the coal - based operation rate was 62.95%, and the methanol - based operation rate was 62.43%. There were various device changes during the week, including maintenance of Zhonghai Shell and Tongliao Jinmei devices, restart of Satellite, Tianye, Guoneng Yulin, and Meijin devices, and Yulong Petrochemical's device resumed operation after a short - term shutdown. Hengli and Far Eastern Union slightly increased their device loads [19][22][24]. - **Production Profit**: Due to the significant rebound in thermal coal prices, the profit of coal - based ethylene glycol production has dropped significantly. The current profits of MTO, coal - based, and ethylene - based production routes are - 1687.74 yuan/ton, 90.26 yuan/ton, and - 124.34 US dollars/ton respectively, compared with the previous period's - 1607.16 yuan/ton, 261.94 yuan/ton, and - 122.23 US dollars/ton [31][33]. - **Port Inventory**: As of October 16, the MEG port inventory was 475,500 tons, an increase of 70,000 tons compared with the previous period, with a month - on - month change of 15.51%. Among them, Zhangjiagang had 194,500 tons (an increase of 9,000 tons), Jiangyin had 60,000 tons (an increase of 10,000 tons), Taicang had 136,000 tons (an increase of 71,000 tons), Ningbo had 82,000 tons (an increase of 2,000 tons), and Shanghai and Changshu had 3,000 tons (a decrease of 22,000 tons). The polyester operation load was generally stable, and the port pick - up was neutral [35][37][38]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - **Cost Side**: Oil prices still lack substantial positive factors, and the bearish fundamentals will continue to suppress price performance and limit the rebound and repair space. The polyester operation rate has a narrow fluctuation range, and there is no new production capacity in the market, so the market supply is mostly stable [44][46]. - **Polyester Product Situation**: The average weekly load of polyester factories was 89.38%, and the average weekly load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 68.22%. The market average prices of semi - bright POY150D/48F, DTY150D/48F, and FDY150D/96F were 6571 yuan/ton, 7804 yuan/ton, and 6754 yuan/ton respectively, down 1.47%, 0.82%, and 1.13% compared with the previous period. The average price of polyester staple fiber in the East China market this period was 6326 yuan/ton, down 93 yuan/ton or - 1.45% compared with the previous period. The negotiation range of polyester bottle chips in the East China region was 5600 - 5730 yuan/ton, with an average price of 5710.00 yuan/ton this week, down 2.14% compared with the previous period [48]. - **Weaving Market**: New export orders are issued slowly, and the weaving market lacks confidence in the future market. With the drop in temperature in the north, the online sales of autumn and winter textile and clothing have accelerated, driving the sales of thick fabrics such as autumn and winter fleece and woolen fabrics. The operating rates of warp - knitting enterprises have steadily increased. As of October 16, the operating rates of water - jet looms in Wujiang, Changxing, Xiaoshao, and the warp - knitting operating rates in Haining and Changshu have shown different changes [52][54]. - **Polyester Downstream**: The raw material inventory of polyester downstream is at a low level, and the rigid demand is gradually increasing. From October 13 - 17, the average weekly polyester sales were estimated to be 70%. The filament production enterprises have continued to accumulate inventory, and the end - of - month shipment pressure is gradually increasing. As of October 16, the filament inventory decreased, with the average inventory days of POY, FDY, and DTY being 16.80 days, 26.10 days, and 31.50 days respectively [55][57][59].
纯苯苯乙烯日报:苯乙烯亏损性检修增多-20251021
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-10-21 02:13
纯苯苯乙烯日报 | 2025-10-21 苯乙烯亏损性检修增多 纯苯与苯乙烯观点 市场要闻与重要数据 纯苯方面:纯苯主力基差74元/吨(+25)。纯苯港口库存9.90万吨(+0.90万吨);纯苯CFR中国加工费147美元/吨(+1 美元/吨),纯苯FOB韩国加工费131美元/吨(+1美元/吨),纯苯美韩价差88.5美元/吨(+5.0美元/吨)。华东纯苯现 货-M2价差35元/吨(-15元/吨)。 纯苯下游方面:己内酰胺生产利润-1810元/吨(+55),酚酮生产利润-600元/吨(+25),苯胺生产利润826元/吨(+348), 己二酸生产利润-1207元/吨(+72)。己内酰胺开工率92.41%(-3.59%),苯酚开工率78.00%(+0.00%),苯胺开工 率75.73%(-1.43%),己二酸开工率59.10%(-7.80%)。 苯乙烯方面:苯乙烯主力基差65元/吨(+53元/吨);苯乙烯非一体化生产利润-623元/吨(-14元/吨),预期逐步压缩。 苯乙烯华东港口库存202500吨(+6000吨),苯乙烯华东商业库存122500吨(+1000吨),处于库存回建阶段。苯乙 烯开工率71.9%(-1.7 ...
议程更新!“2025中国化工园区发展大会”即将召开!
Zhong Guo Hua Gong Bao· 2025-10-20 10:29
Core Points - The "2025 China Chemical Park Development Conference" will be held from October 29 to 31, 2025, in Jiaxing, Zhejiang Province, focusing on the achievements of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the outlook for the "15th Five-Year Plan" in the chemical park sector [1][2][3] - The conference will cover topics such as industrial innovation, green low-carbon development, digital empowerment, and high-quality development in chemical parks [1][3] - A roundtable meeting with multinational companies and key park leaders will also take place during the conference [1] Conference Schedule - The conference will include various sessions, such as: - Annual work meeting of the Chemical Park Working Committee on October 29 [1] - General assembly with speeches from leaders of the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation and local government on October 30 [2][3] - Media press conference to discuss industry, investment, and development plans [3][4] - Specialized sessions on safety, environmental management, and logistics on October 30 and 31 [4][5][11] Key Topics and Presentations - Presentations will include: - The "15th Five-Year Plan" for chemical parks and national competitiveness evaluation [3][4] - Sustainable development reports and discussions on opportunities and challenges for multinational chemical companies [4][9] - Insights into low-carbon strategies and the future of the petrochemical industry [7][10] Notable Participants - The conference will feature leaders from various sectors, including: - Government representatives from the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology [3][4] - CEOs and executives from major multinational chemical companies such as BASF, SABIC, and others [9][10] Venue and Logistics - The conference will take place at the Jinghui Hotel in Jiaxing, with accommodation options available [1][15] - Registration fees are set at 3600 RMB per person, excluding accommodation costs [13]
收购秦淮,深度捆绑下游需求,持续看好东阳光
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-10-20 07:27
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Dongyangguang, indicating a positive outlook for the company in the context of the chemical industry [5]. Core Insights - The chemical sector is experiencing a configuration opportunity, with the index having adjusted from a peak of 9565.18 points to a low of 3876.11 points, a cumulative decline of 59.5% from September 2021 to February 2024. However, the sector has shown resilience with a cumulative increase of 13.9% from July 11 to October 17, 2024 [1]. - Dongyangguang's acquisition of Qinhuai Data for 28 billion RMB is expected to accelerate its strategic transformation into the high-growth data center sector, leveraging core technologies and a strong client base [2]. - The integration of Qinhuai Data is anticipated to enhance Dongyangguang's capabilities in AI infrastructure, particularly in liquid cooling and power management, addressing key performance bottlenecks in AI factories [2][6]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The chemical industry has seen a significant downturn but is now poised for recovery, with construction project growth rates declining to negative values by Q1 2025 [1]. - The report highlights the ongoing trend of "anti-involution" contributing to the sector's strength [1]. Company Analysis - Dongyangguang's acquisition of Qinhuai Data is a strategic move to enter the data center market, with projected EBITDA nearing 4 billion RMB by 2025 [2]. - The company is positioned to create a comprehensive solution in liquid cooling and power management, enhancing its competitive edge in the AI infrastructure space [6]. Financial Projections - Dongyangguang's earnings per share (EPS) are projected to grow from 0.12 RMB in 2024 to 0.94 RMB by 2027, with a significant reduction in price-to-earnings (PE) ratio from 190.00 in 2024 to 21.72 in 2027, indicating improved profitability [5].
IEA上调原油产量预期,9月OPEC联盟产量大幅提升:石油化工行业周报(2025/10/13—2025/10/19)-20251020
Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the petrochemical industry, highlighting potential recovery in polyester profitability and favorable conditions for leading refining companies [15]. Core Views - IEA has raised its crude oil production forecast, while OPEC's production has significantly increased, indicating a continued oversupply in the market despite low demand [3][12]. - The upstream sector is experiencing a decline in oil prices, but day rates for self-elevating drilling rigs are on the rise, suggesting a potential for increased profitability in oil services [18]. - The refining sector is facing mixed results, with overseas refined oil crack spreads declining, while olefin price spreads show variability [49]. Summary by Sections Upstream Sector - Brent crude oil prices fell to $61.29 per barrel, a decrease of 2.30% week-on-week, while WTI prices also saw a similar decline [18]. - As of October 10, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased by 3.524 million barrels, indicating a growing supply [20]. - The number of U.S. drilling rigs remained stable at 548, with a slight increase of 1 rig from the previous week [31]. Refining Sector - The Singapore refining margin for major products decreased to $19.58 per barrel, down by $0.47 from the previous week [51]. - The U.S. gasoline RBOB-WTI spread increased to $17.19 per barrel, reflecting a slight upward trend despite historical averages being higher [56]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading polyester companies such as Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials due to expected recovery in profitability [15]. - It also recommends high-quality refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Sinopec, anticipating improved competitive dynamics in the refining sector [15]. - For upstream exploration and development, companies like CNOOC and China National Petroleum are highlighted for their resilience against declining oil prices [15].
石油化工行业周报:IEA上调原油产量预期,9月OPEC联盟产量大幅提升-20251020
Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the petrochemical industry, indicating a favorable investment rating for key companies within the sector [3][17]. Core Insights - The IEA has raised its crude oil production forecast, while OPEC's production significantly increased in September, leading to an anticipated oversupply in the market [4][5]. - The upstream sector is experiencing a decline in oil prices, with Brent crude futures closing at $61.29 per barrel, a decrease of 2.30% week-over-week [20]. - The refining sector shows mixed results, with overseas refined oil crack spreads declining, while olefin price spreads vary [4][17]. - The polyester sector is expected to see a recovery in profitability as supply and demand improve, with a focus on leading companies in the industry [17]. Summary by Sections Upstream Sector - Brent crude oil prices fell to $61.29 per barrel, down 2.30% from the previous week, while WTI prices also decreased [20]. - As of October 10, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories rose to 424 million barrels, an increase of 3.524 million barrels week-over-week [22]. - The number of active oil rigs in the U.S. remained stable at 548, with a year-over-year decrease of 37 rigs [35]. Refining Sector - The Singapore refining margin for major products decreased to $19.58 per barrel, down $0.47 from the previous week [4]. - The price spread for gasoline in the U.S. increased slightly to $17.19 per barrel, while olefin price spreads showed mixed trends [4][17]. Polyester Sector - PTA prices have declined, with the average price in East China at 4407.5 RMB per ton, down 3.41% week-over-week [4]. - The report anticipates a gradual improvement in the polyester industry as new capacities come online and demand recovers [17]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the polyester sector such as Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials, as well as refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Sinopec [17]. - It also highlights the potential for improved profitability in the oil and gas sector, suggesting investments in companies with high dividend yields like PetroChina and CNOOC [17].
正信期货聚酯周报20251020:PTA:弱预期主导,PTA偏弱震荡,MEG:在“积弱难返”中寻求底部支撑-20251020
Zheng Xin Qi Huo· 2025-10-20 05:35
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PTA is expected to experience weak oscillations in the short - term due to macro - level disturbances, a slight increase in supply, mediocre demand during the traditional peak season, and a pessimistic long - term supply - demand outlook. The industry should continue the strategy of hedging at high prices and pay attention to unplanned production cuts or halts [6]. - Ethylene glycol (MEG) is likely to maintain a weak pattern in the short - term as there is a strong expectation of a weakening in supply - demand balance and inventory is accumulating at the main ports [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Upstream Analysis of the Industrial Chain - **Market Review**: International oil prices declined due to the International Energy Agency's warning of long - term supply surplus and trade disputes initiated by the US. PX prices dropped, but the decline was less than that of crude oil because of weak cost support and a low PX - naphtha spread. As of October 17, the Asian PX closing price was $783.17/ton CFR China, down $15/ton or 1.88% from October 10 [15]. - **PX Capacity Utilization**: The average weekly PX capacity utilization rate was 87.42%, a 0.81% decrease from the previous week. Urumqi Petrochemical's 1 million - ton device was under maintenance from October 14 for half a month, and Fujia Dahua's two 1.4 - million - ton devices continued to be under maintenance, with a planned restart in early November [20]. - **PX - Naphtha Spread**: As of October 17, the PX - naphtha spread reached $246.2/ton, up $24.75/ton from October 10. The spread continued to recover due to low processing fees, low production willingness of enterprises, and a short - term shortage of spot in November [23]. 2. PTA Fundamental Analysis - **Market Review**: PTA prices oscillated weakly. Although the supply was tightened by a planned production cut of a major producer in the Northeast, the price was dragged down by lower international oil prices due to tariff disputes and weak long - term industry expectations. As of October 17, the PTA spot price was 4340 yuan/ton, and the spot basis was 2601 - 83 [26]. - **PTA Capacity Utilization**: The average weekly PTA capacity utilization rate dropped to 75.56%, a 2.28% decrease from the previous week. Hengli Petrochemical carried out a planned production cut, while Yisheng New Materials increased its load during the week. In October, there are maintenance plans for Ineos and Hengli, and the restart time of Yisheng Dahua and Hainan is uncertain, so the monthly PTA output may increase significantly [29]. - **PTA Processing Fees**: PTA processing fees were under pressure as the international oil prices continued to decline due to the ongoing tariff disputes, and there was a lack of positive support in the industrial chain. Next week, with the planned restart of maintenance devices and little change in the polyester sector, the destocking rate in the balance sheet will narrow, and PTA processing fees may continue to be under pressure [31]. - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance**: In October, with insufficient PTA device maintenance and the restart of maintenance devices, and little change in demand, the PTA supply - demand is expected to be in a loose balance [34]. 3. MEG Fundamental Analysis - **Market Trend**: Ethylene glycol prices declined weakly under the double pressure of cost and supply - demand. Affected by the expectation of increased supply and the decline of international oil prices, upstream raw materials were in a downward trend. Although there was a rebound on Thursday due to the general rise of commodities, it continued to be weak on Friday due to the drag of crude oil. As of October 17, the closing price of ethylene glycol in Zhangjiagang was 4096 yuan/ton, and the delivered price in the South China market was 4230 yuan/ton [40]. - **MEG Capacity Utilization**: The total ethylene glycol capacity utilization rate was 69.05%, a 0.37% decrease from the previous week. The capacity utilization rate of integrated devices was 68.93%, a 1.07% decrease, while the coal - based ethylene glycol capacity utilization rate was 69.24%, a 0.75% increase. In October, the inventory accumulation at ports is limited due to cautious import expectations, but there is an obvious expectation of increased domestic production [44]. - **MEG Port Inventory**: As of October 22, 2025, the total expected arrival volume of ethylene glycol in East China was 893,000 tons. As of October 16, the total inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China was 493,000 tons, an increase of 14,200 tons from October 13 [46]. - **MEG Processing Profits**: The prices of ethylene glycol were weak, and the processing profits of various processes showed both increases and decreases. As of October 17, the profit of naphtha - based ethylene glycol production was - $108.89/ton, an increase of $17.29/ton from the previous week, while the profit of coal - based ethylene glycol production was - 470.2 yuan/ton, a decrease of 181.7 yuan/ton from the previous week [51]. 4. Downstream Demand Analysis of the Industrial Chain - **Polyester Device Load**: The polyester devices had no clear changes. The average weekly polyester capacity utilization rate was 87.78%, a 0.02% decrease from the previous week. Next week, the polyester load is expected to gradually increase as previously commissioned devices and long - shut - down devices restart, and new devices are planned to be commissioned [54]. - **Polyester Capacity Utilization Outlook**: In September, the average monthly polyester capacity utilization rate was 87.59%, a 1.12% increase from the previous month. After successful destocking before the festival, the polyester inventory in October is under little pressure, and the monthly polyester load is expected to remain stable [55]. - **Capacity Utilization of Polyester Products**: The average weekly capacity utilization rate of polyester filament was 91.06%, a 0.03% decrease from the previous period. The average capacity utilization rate of polyester staple fiber was 87.16%, unchanged from the previous week. The capacity utilization rate of fiber - grade polyester chips was 85.12%, a 0.39% decrease from the previous week [60]. - **Polyester Product Inventory**: Due to weak downstream purchasing enthusiasm, the finished - product inventory of polyester factories accumulated slightly during the week [63]. - **Polyester Product Cash Flow**: The polymerization cost decreased, and the price decline of polyester products was less than that of raw materials, so the cash flow of most models was restored [64]. - **Weaving Load**: As of October 16, the comprehensive operating rate of chemical fiber weaving in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 64.06%, unchanged from the previous data. The average terminal weaving order days were 14.79 days, an increase of 0.50 days from the previous week. In mid - October, the weaving market orders were differentiated, and the order volume increased slightly compared with September, but the overall increase was not significant due to the temperature difference between the north and the south [69]. 5. Summary of the Polyester Industrial Chain Fundamentals - **Cost**: International oil prices declined. PX prices also dropped, but the decline was less than that of crude oil due to a low PX - naphtha spread [71]. - **Supply**: The average weekly PTA capacity utilization rate decreased, and the total ethylene glycol capacity utilization rate also declined slightly, with different trends in integrated and coal - based devices [71]. - **Demand**: The average weekly polyester capacity utilization rate decreased slightly, and the weaving operating rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions remained stable. The weaving orders increased slightly but were still affected by temperature differences [71]. - **Inventory**: PTA is expected to be tight in the near - term but face inventory accumulation in the long - term. The MEG inventory in the main ports of East China increased [71].