1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The anticipation of a looser supply situation in the zinc concentrate mining sector has largely materialized, with the treatment charge (TC) continuing to rise. The annual production guidance for major overseas zinc concentrate producers remains mostly unchanged, and the upward trend in annual zinc concentrate production is expected to continue [3][50]. - Given the strong expectation of refinery复产 and the off - peak demand season, an inflection point in zinc ingot inventory may emerge [3]. - The zinc price is expected to be strong in the short - term and weak in the long - term. In the short run, low inventory provides some support, but weak demand restricts upward movement. In the long run, with increased supply and limited demand growth, the zinc price may face pressure [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Total Overview - In March 2025, the global zinc market surplus narrowed to 23,700 tons. The first three months of 2025 saw a global supply surplus of 143,000 tons, slightly lower than the 148,000 tons surplus in the same period last year [12]. - In Q1 2025, global zinc concentrate production was 2.9021 million tons, a 9.75% decrease quarter - on - quarter and a 2.99% increase year - on - year. Global refined zinc production was 3.278 million tons, a 2.32% decrease quarter - on - quarter and a 3.55% decrease year - on - year [12]. 3.2 Glencore - Glencore's 2025 zinc concentrate production guidance is 93 - 990,000 tons, consistent with the initial expectation. Q1 production was 213,600 tons, a 18.29% decrease quarter - on - quarter and a 3.89% increase year - on - year. Increases mainly came from Antamina and the Australian region [19]. 3.3 Teck - Teck's 2025 zinc concentrate production guidance is 525,000 - 575,000 tons. Q1 production was 177,300 tons, a 6.19% decrease quarter - on - quarter and a 14.08% decrease year - on - year. Reductions mainly came from the Red Dog mine [22]. 3.4 Boliden - In Q1 2025, Boliden's zinc concentrate production was 57,900 tons, a 38.95% increase quarter - on - quarter and a 45.78% increase year - on - year. Increases mainly came from the复产 of the Tara mine [24]. 3.5 Vedanta - In Q1 2025, Vedanta's zinc concentrate production was 264,000 tons, a 5.60% increase quarter - on - quarter and a 4.35% increase year - on - year. Increases mainly came from Gamsberg, partially offset by the reduction at Black Mountain Mine [27]. 3.6 Nexa - Nexa's 2025 zinc concentrate production guidance is 311,000 - 351,000 tons. Q1 production was 67,300 tons, an 8.44% decrease quarter - on - quarter and a 22.82% decrease year - on - year. Except for Cerro Lindo, zinc production at other mines declined [31]. 3.7 MMG - MMG's 2025 zinc concentrate production guidance is 215,000 - 240,000 tons. Q1 production was 51,800 tons, a 19.02% decrease quarter - on - quarter and a 12.65% decrease year - on - year [37]. 3.8 Newmont Goldcorp - Newmont's 2025 zinc concentrate production guidance is 236,000 tons. Q1 production was 59,000 tons, a 23.38% decrease quarter - on - quarter and a 2.42% increase year - on - year [38]. 3.9 BHP - BHP's fiscal 2025 zinc concentrate production guidance is 90,000 - 110,000 tons. Q1 production was 26,000 tons, a 14.19% increase quarter - on - quarter and a 41.38% increase year - on - year [40]. 3.10 Lundin Mining - In Q1 2025, Lundin Mining's zinc concentrate production was 48,900 tons, a 5.77% decrease quarter - on - quarter and a 7.14% increase year - on - year [41]. 3.11 South32 - In Q1 2025, South32's zinc concentrate production was 11,000 tons, a 1.85% increase quarter - on - quarter and a 23.08% decrease year - on - year. The production guidance for the Cannington mine in fiscal 2025 was lowered to 45,000 tons [43]. 3.12 Grupo Mexico - SCC - In Q1 2025, SCC's zinc concentrate production was 39,400 tons, an 8.75% decrease quarter - on - quarter and a 49.40% increase year - on - year. The full - load operation of the Buenavista zinc concentrator contributed to the increase [44]. 3.13 Industrials Pelones - In Q1 2025, Pelones' zinc concentrate production was 57,700 tons, a 5.65% decrease quarter - on - quarter and a 13.86% decrease year - on - year. Reductions mainly came from the closure of the Tizapa mine and the depletion of the San Julian mine [45]. 3.14 Fresnillo plc - Fresnillo plc's 2025 zinc concentrate production guidance is 93,000 - 103,000 tons. Q1 production was 25,200 tons, a 12.79% decrease quarter - on - quarter and a 3.47% decrease year - on - year. Reductions mainly came from lower ore grades at Fresnillo and Cienega and the shutdown of the San Julian mine [47]. 3.15 Kaz Mineral - In Q1 2025, Kaz Mineral's zinc concentrate production was 9,300 tons, a 19.13% decrease quarter - on - quarter and a 11.43% decrease year - on - year, despite the highest quarterly throughput of ore [50]. 3.16 Market Outlook - The anticipation of a looser supply situation in the mining sector has materialized, and the TC continues to rise. The annual production guidance for major overseas zinc concentrate producers remains mostly unchanged, and the upward trend in annual zinc concentrate production is expected to continue. The TC for domestic and imported zinc concentrates has increased [50]. - Given the strong expectation of refinery复产 and the off - peak demand season, an inflection point in zinc ingot inventory may emerge. The zinc price is expected to be strong in the short - term and weak in the long - term [3][4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Zinc: Bearish; Lead: Sideways [6] 2. Core Views of the Report - In Q1 2025, overseas zinc concentrate production increased year - on - year, while lead concentrate production decreased. The zinc smelting industry is expected to see increased supply in Q2, but the lead market has uncertainties due to production disruptions. In June, lead and zinc prices will be demand - driven. For zinc, short - term oversupply is expected, and for lead, the market is in a bearish pattern [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Event Overview - Recently, overseas leading mining companies announced their Q1 2025 production. Some adjusted their 2025 production guidance. The report statistics cover 30 overseas leading mining companies, with the sample proportion of zinc concentrate rising from 60% to about 65% and that of lead concentrate from 40% to 49% [11]. 3.2 Zinc Concentrate and Lead Concentrate Production - **Zinc Concentrate**: In Q1 2025, overseas sample zinc concentrate production was 1.312 million metric tons, a 6.4% year - on - year increase and a 4% quarter - on - quarter decrease. The increase was due to large - scale project restarts, new project ramp - ups, higher grades and recoveries, a low base in the previous year, and fewer disruptions. The decrease was due to seasonal factors and end - of - year production rushes [12]. - **Lead Concentrate**: In Q1 2025, overseas sample lead concentrate production was 300,000 metric tons, a 4.4% year - on - year decrease and a 9.2% quarter - on - quarter decrease. The decline was mainly due to lower ore grades, external disruptions, and reduced operational efficiency [13]. 3.3 Production Changes and Factors of Individual Mining Companies - **Zinc Concentrate**: The top five companies with year - on - year production increases were Ivanhoe, Vedanta, Boliden, Group Mexico, and Sibanye - Stillwater. The top five with decreases were Teck, NEXA, Peñoles, MMG, and South32. The increase was mainly due to large - scale project restarts, new project ramp - ups, higher grades and recoveries, etc. The decrease was due to lower grades, external disruptions, and reduced operational efficiency [27][29]. - **Lead Concentrate**: Companies including Volcan, Glencore, Vedanta, Pan American Silver, and Silvercrop contributed to the year - on - year increase, while South32, Newmont, Aurelia Metals, NEXA, and MMG contributed to the decrease [27]. 3.4 Zinc Mine Costs - The 90% cash cost quantile of zinc mines in 2025 is $1,993/ton, a 9.3% year - on - year decrease. Although the LME zinc price has declined, the mining end still has sufficient profits. Different companies' cost changes vary due to factors such as mining costs, processing fees, and by - product contributions [47]. 3.5 Production Guidance - Among 13 leading mining companies, only South32 slightly lowered its annual production guidance in Q1. The total 2025 production is expected to be between 2.839 and 3.1 million metric tons, a 4.7% year - on - year increase. Some projects are expected to increase production, while others may continue to face production declines [48][50]. 3.6 TC Views and Investment Recommendations - **Zinc Concentrate TC**: There may be a slight upward space in Q2 2025, but in the second half of the year, upward movement may be restricted or even decline slightly due to factors such as domestic seasonal production increases, bearish zinc price expectations, and potential overseas production shortfalls. - **Lead Concentrate TC**: Overseas production is expected to increase slightly in Q2 2025, but domestic imports may be limited, and there is a downward expectation for the medium - term TC. - **Investment Strategy**: For zinc, in June, it is recommended to short on rallies on a medium - term basis and maintain a long - short arbitrage strategy between domestic and overseas markets. For lead, it is recommended to look for medium - term long opportunities after demand reaches a low point [52][53].

今天分享的是：ABB：2025年全球矿业调研报告-采矿进行时 报告共计：30页 ABB《2025年全球矿业调研报告-采矿进行时》核心内容总结 一、采矿业可持续发展的现状与挑战 传统采矿业在环境、社会和治理（ESG）方面面临严峻挑战，如高碳排放、社区关系紧张、技术转型压力等。尽管全球设定了2030年减排和2050年净零排放 目标，但调研显示，仅15%的受访者对达成2030年净零目标"非常有信心"，30%的受访者承认脱碳进度滞后。行业面临的主要障碍包括资本投资不足 （57%）、基础设施匮乏（53%）和商品价格波动（50%），同时公众对行业的信任度较低，52%的受访者"很少或根本不相信"矿业公司会追求社会最大利 益。 二、转型的核心驱动力与关键路径 报告指出，采矿业转型的核心在于人才、技术和流程三大支柱，同时需通过合作加速变革： 1. 人才：变革的核心驱动力 人才是可持续发展的基础，48%的受访者将"安全"列为转型主要动机，超过40%的Z世代和千禧一代因气候问题选择职业或跳槽。然而，44%的受访者认 为"技能不足"是脱碳的重大障碍，70%的企业正通过再培训提升员工技能，同时需通过技术创新（如自动化）减少高危岗位依赖 ...

日度报告——综合晨报 4 月经济数据同比回落 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-05-20 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 美联储官员频频为降息泼冷水 特朗普和普京的谈话结束，特朗普表态俄乌立刻谈判，但是分 歧存在的情况下，预计难以实现。 宏观策略（股指期货） 中国 4 月经济数据同比回落 综 4 月份经济数据同比增速回落，反映出外部冲击和内需走弱的双 重压力。下一阶段政策应竭力呵护房地产市场，持续巩固"止 跌回稳"态势，缓解居民资产收缩压力，释放消费潜力。 合 农产品（豆粕） 晨 美豆种植率高于预期 报 巴西 CNF 升贴水继续下降，国内进口大豆成本随之下行。随着 进口大豆到港及油厂开机增加，上周豆粕库存继续小幅上升， 昨日沿海豆粕现货报价以下跌为主。 有色金属（铜） 中国 4 月未锻轧铜及铜材进口量同比增加 0.2% 短期美元指数承压运行而支撑铜价，但国内基本面阶段转弱预 期升温而抑制铜价，总体上，铜价短期震荡偏弱运行可能性更 大。 能源化工（原油） 欧盟或向 G7 提议将俄罗斯石油价格上限降至 50 美元/桶 油价窄幅波动。 | 杨云兰 | 高级分析师 （农产品） | | --- | -- ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai zinc futures fluctuated weakly. The Fed maintained the interest rate but kept the possibility of a rate cut. The US and the UK reached a tariff agreement, and China and the US held talks. China introduced a package of financial policies, and exports in April showed strong resilience, improving market risk appetite [3][9]. - Fundamentally, mines are steadily ramping up production, and processing fees at home and abroad have increased month - on - month. However, as zinc prices have fallen, mines are less willing to offer concessions, and the increase in processing fees has slowed. In May, smelters are both reducing and resuming production, and the output of refined zinc is expected to remain flat month - on - month. The import window for zinc ingots has gradually opened since late April, and some imported goods have flowed in recently, keeping the supply pressure at a relatively high level [4][9]. - On the demand side, after the holiday, enterprises resumed work, and the operating rates of various primary sectors increased to varying degrees. High - voltage orders supported the tower orders, but galvanized pipe enterprises planned to cut production due to price competition. Electronic alloy orders were good, while traditional hardware accessory orders were poor, and some alloy terminal export orders decreased recently. Orders for rubber - grade and feed - grade zinc oxide decreased, while ceramic - grade orders were stable [4][9]. - Overall, the China - US trade negotiations and the release of domestic favorable policies have restored market sentiment, but there is still uncertainty in tariff negotiations. Fundamentally, there is an expectation of marginal weakening. The high output of refined zinc and the supplement of imported zinc ingots keep the supply pressure high. As the peak season is coming to an end, the enthusiasm for purchasing and restocking has weakened, and the support of the low - inventory logic has been weakened. It is expected that zinc prices will fluctuate weakly to find support [4][9] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Transaction Data - From April 30th to May 9th, the SHFE zinc price dropped from 22,440 yuan/ton to 22,175 yuan/ton, a decrease of 265 yuan/ton; the LME zinc price rose from 2,588 dollars/ton to 2,636 dollars/ton, an increase of 48 dollars/ton; the Shanghai - London ratio decreased from 8.67 to 8.41, a decrease of 0.26; the SHFE inventory decreased from 48,477 tons to 47,102 tons, a decrease of 1,375 tons; the LME inventory decreased from 173,900 tons to 170,650 tons, a decrease of 3,250 tons; the social inventory increased from 7.7 million tons to 8.33 million tons, an increase of 0.63 million tons; the spot premium increased from 160 yuan/ton to 500 yuan/ton, an increase of 340 yuan/ton [5] 2. Market Review - Last week, the main contract of Shanghai zinc futures, ZN2506, continued to fluctuate weakly, closing at 22,190 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 1.11%. LME zinc fluctuated sideways, closing at 2,655.5 dollars/ton, a weekly increase of 1.55% [6]. - In the spot market, by May 9th, the mainstream transaction price of Shanghai 0 zinc was concentrated between 22,825 - 22,955 yuan/ton, with a premium of 580 - 590 yuan/ton over the 2506 contract. In the second half of the week, the inflow of imported zinc ingots improved market arrivals, but downstream purchases were average, and traders gradually lowered the premium quotes, resulting in weak spot trading [6]. - In terms of inventory, by May 9th, the LME zinc inventory was 170,325 tons, a weekly decrease of 3,250 tons; the SHFE inventory was 47,102 tons, a decrease of 1,375 tons from last week. By May 8th, the social inventory was 8.33 million tons, an increase of 0.63 million tons from April 30th and a decrease of 0.08 million tons from May 6th [7]. - Macroscopically, the Fed kept the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 4.25% - 4.5%. The FOMC statement said that the uncertainty of the economic outlook has further increased. Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng will hold talks with US Treasury Secretary Bezant during his visit to Switzerland. The US and the UK reached a tariff trade agreement. China's three departments issued a package of financial policies, including a 0.5 - percentage - point cut in the reserve requirement ratio and a 0.1 - percentage - point cut in policy interest rates. China's inflation remained low in April, with CPI at - 0.1% year - on - year and PPI at - 2.7% year - on - year. Exports maintained resilience, with an 8.1% growth rate in April [7][8] 3. Industry News - As of the week of May 9th, the weekly processing fees for domestic and foreign zinc concentrates were reported at 3,500 yuan/metal ton and 40 dollars/dry ton respectively, with a month - on - month increase of 50 yuan/metal ton for domestic and no change for foreign [10]. - A galvanizing plant in the north recently put into operation a new 150,000 - ton galvanizing production line, with a total designed capacity of 500,000 tons, expected to be fully put into production in 2027 [10]. - Lundin Mining's Neves - Corvo mine produced about 27,700 tons of zinc concentrate and about 2,000 tons of lead concentrate in the first quarter, up 4.5% and 24% year - on - year respectively; Zinkgruvan produced about 21,300 tons of zinc concentrate and about 7,600 tons of lead concentrate, up 10.7% and 12.4% year - on - year respectively. These two mines were officially acquired by Swedish mining company Boliden on April 16th this year [10]. - Teck is considering shifting the products of its Red Dog zinc mine in Alaska from the Chinese market to other regions to avoid tariff risks. The mine's output accounts for about 5% of the global zinc supply and 2.5% of lead, and currently more than 20% of its zinc concentrate is sold to China [11]. - Glencore's self - owned zinc production in Q1 2025 was 213,600 tons, 4% higher than in Q1 2024, and its self - owned zinc production guidance for 2025 is 930,000 - 990,000 tons [11]. - Volcan's zinc concentrate metal output in Q1 2025 totaled 57,400 tons, a 10% decrease quarter - on - quarter and a 14% increase year - on - year. Its zinc concentrate production guidance for 2025 is 250,000 - 255,000 tons [11] 4. Related Charts - The report provides 14 charts, including price trends of Shanghai and LME zinc, internal and external price ratios, spot premiums and discounts, inventory situations, zinc ore processing fees, zinc ore import profits and losses, domestic refined zinc production, smelter profits, refined zinc net imports, and downstream primary enterprise operating rates [13][16][18]

Summary of Metals & Mining Research Report Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Metals & Mining industry, providing insights into key companies and their financial outlooks, valuations, and market conditions [1][4]. Key Companies Analyzed - The report includes detailed analyses of several major companies in the Metals & Mining sector, including: - Anglo American - BHP - Glencore - Rio Tinto - Vale - Antofagasta - First Quantum - Norsk Hydro - ArcelorMittal - Acerinox - thyssenkrupp - voestalpine - SSAB - Fresnillo - Hochschild [4][5][7]. Core Financial Metrics and Valuations - **Valuation Multiples**: The report provides comparative valuation multiples for various companies, including P/E ratios, EV/EBITDA, and FCF yields. For example: - Anglo American: P/E of 10.3x for 2027E, EV/EBITDA of 6.5x for 2027E, and FCF yield of 1.1% for 2025E [5][8]. - BHP: P/E of 11.5x for 2026E, EV/EBITDA of 5.7x for 2026E, and FCF yield of 3.4% for 2025E [5][8]. - Vale: P/E of 4.9x for 2025E, EV/EBITDA of 4.0x for 2025E, and FCF yield of 6.6% for 2026E [5][8]. - **Earnings and EBITDA**: The report outlines projected earnings and EBITDA for the companies, indicating growth trends. For instance: - Anglo American's FY EBITDA is projected to grow from $6.58 billion in 2025E to $9.76 billion in 2027E [7]. - BHP's FY EBITDA is expected to remain stable around $25 billion for 2025E to 2027E [7]. Market Sentiment and Recommendations - The overall industry view is classified as **Neutral**, with specific stock recommendations varying from Overweight (OW) to Underweight (UW) based on individual company performance and market conditions [6][8]. - Companies like Anglo American, Glencore, and Vale are rated as Overweight, indicating a positive outlook, while others like thyssenkrupp are rated Underweight, suggesting caution [6][8]. Important Considerations - **Debt Levels**: The report highlights net debt levels and debt-to-EBITDA ratios, which are crucial for assessing financial health. For example, BHP has a net debt of $13.86 billion with a debt/EBITDA ratio of 0.5 for 2025E [7]. - **Capex and Free Cash Flow**: Capital expenditures (Capex) and free cash flow (FCF) projections are also discussed, with companies like Anglo American expected to invest significantly in growth while maintaining positive FCF [7]. ESG Considerations - The report includes a section on Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) factors, which are increasingly important for investors in the Metals & Mining sector [4]. Conclusion - The Metals & Mining industry is poised for growth, with several companies showing strong financial metrics and positive market sentiment. However, investors are advised to consider individual company risks and market conditions when making investment decisions [2][3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US and UK reached a limited trade agreement, boosting market risk appetite. Attention should be paid to the progress of Sino-US trade negotiations and various economic data [2]. - The prices of most commodities showed different trends of fluctuations. Precious metals prices continued to adjust, copper prices were strongly volatile, aluminum prices were weakly volatile, and the prices of other commodities also changed according to their respective fundamentals [3][6][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - Overseas: The US and UK reached a limited trade agreement, with the US retaining a 10% benchmark tariff on the UK, expanding market access, canceling steel - aluminum tariffs, implementing a 0% tariff on US agricultural products, and a stepped tariff on UK car imports. Trump encouraged stock - buying, leading to a rebound in US stocks and cryptocurrencies, the US dollar index stabilizing above 100, the US bond yield rising to 4.37%, and the gold price falling by over 1%. Oil and copper prices closed higher [2]. - Domestic: A - shares rose with reduced trading volume, with the turnover of the two markets dropping to 1.32 trillion. The ChiNext and small - cap stocks performed well, and sectors such as military and optical modules led the gains. The Shanghai Composite Index recovered the decline since the announcement of reciprocal tariffs in April. In the bond market, after the reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, the money market became looser, and the yield curve continued to steepen. Attention should be paid to April's foreign trade, financial, and price data [2]. Precious Metals - On Thursday, international precious metal futures closed down. COMEX gold futures tumbled 2.40% to $3310 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures edged down 0.57% to $32.6 per ounce. The trade agreement between the US and the UK reduced the appeal of gold as a safe - haven asset. If the Sino - US trade talks reach an agreement, the gold price may face further downward pressure [3]. Copper - On Thursday, SHFE copper was weakly volatile, and LME copper soared overnight. The spot market trading was light, and the LME inventory decreased to 194,000 tons. The first - quarter copper production of First Quantum decreased by 10.7% quarter - on - quarter. In the short term, copper prices are expected to remain volatile, and attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations [6][7]. Aluminum - On Thursday, SHFE aluminum closed at 19,510 yuan per ton, down 0.69%. LME aluminum rose 0.17%. The electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 16,000 tons, and the aluminum rod inventory decreased by 9,000 tons. The market sentiment was relieved by the US - UK trade agreement. The aluminum price is expected to remain weakly volatile due to consumption concerns [8]. Alumina - On Thursday, the alumina futures main contract rose 3.25% to 2794 yuan per ton. Negative news about new capacity led to a small rebound in alumina prices, but the sustainability and height of the rebound are expected to be limited [9]. Zinc - On Thursday, SHFE zinc first rose and then declined, and LME zinc closed up. Recently, imported zinc ingots have flowed in, and with the approaching end of the consumption peak season, the zinc price is under pressure, and short positions can be held against the 10 - day moving average [10][11]. Lead - On Thursday, SHFE lead fluctuated narrowly, and LME lead also had a narrow - range fluctuation. The social inventory increased. Some lead smelters plan to conduct maintenance, and the supply reduction provides support. The lead price is expected to move sideways in the short term [12][14]. Tin - On Thursday, SHFE tin first rose and then declined, and LME tin had a narrow - range fluctuation. The supply of tin ore is expected to improve slightly, and the consumption is stable. The tin price is expected to fluctuate [15]. Industrial Silicon - On Thursday, the industrial silicon main contract trended downwards. The supply side has limited expansion power, and the demand side is weak. The social inventory remains at 600,000 tons, and the industrial silicon price is expected to continue to decline in the short term [16][17]. Lithium Carbonate - On Thursday, the lithium carbonate price fluctuated widely, and the spot price fell. The short - selling sentiment subsided after the price failed to break through. The downstream purchasing is weak, and the basis correction risk has materialized. Attention should be paid to inventory changes [18][19]. Nickel - On Thursday, the nickel price fluctuated widely. The macro - level still has tariff risks, and the downstream replenishment willingness is weak after the holiday. The nickel price is expected to fluctuate [20]. Crude Oil - On Thursday, crude oil trended strongly. The false news of Kazakhstan's production cut and geopolitical conflicts co - existed. The long - term downward pressure on oil prices comes from OPEC +'s continuous large - scale production increase. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate [21]. Steel (Screw and Coil) - On Thursday, steel futures declined. The supply of the five major steel products decreased, the inventory increased, and the apparent consumption decreased. The steel price is expected to weaken due to weak supply and demand [22][23]. Iron Ore - On Thursday, iron ore futures fluctuated. Downstream steel mills cut production, and the supply is relatively loose. The iron ore price is expected to trend weakly [24]. Bean and Rapeseed Meal - On Thursday, the bean meal 09 contract and the rapeseed meal 09 contract declined. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange in Argentina raised the soybean harvest forecast. The double - meal prices are expected to weakly fluctuate in the short term [25]. Palm Oil - On Thursday, the palm oil 09 contract declined. The BIMP - EAGA Commercial Committee plans to strengthen the quality monitoring of crude palm oil. The palm oil price is expected to weakly fluctuate in the short term [26][27].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Last week, the main contract of SHFE zinc rebounded. The macro - sentiment improved as Trump's attitude towards China's tariffs eased and Fed officials signaled potential interest - rate cuts. The Politburo meeting in China maintained a positive tone, restoring market risk appetite. The Antamina mine's short - term shutdown due to an accident had little impact, and the global zinc ore supply recovery pattern remained unchanged. In May, there are many regular refinery overhauls, with an expected output reduction of around 20,000 tons. The import of zinc ingots has not been continuously opened, and the supply of imported goods in the market is limited. Some holders are reluctant to sell, leading to a rise in spot premiums. On the demand side, the operating rate of galvanizing enterprises declined, the orders of some alloy enterprises are expected to decrease, and the operating rate of zinc oxide decreased slightly. However, due to downstream restocking at low prices and holders' reluctance to sell, the inventory continued to decline to 85,800 tons. Overall, although the tariff concerns have eased, there is no substantial progress. The increase in refinery overhauls reduces the supply pressure of refined zinc, and the low inventory supports the expansion of the single - side price and the monthly spread. But approaching the May Day holiday, overseas risks still exist, and domestic margin requirements are increased, so the rebound pace of zinc prices is expected to slow down, and there is significant pressure at the upper integer levels [3][4][10][11]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Transaction Data - From April 18th to April 25th, the SHFE zinc price rose from 22,050 yuan/ton to 22,750 yuan/ton, an increase of 700 yuan/ton; the LME zinc price rose from 2,595 dollars/ton to 2,645.5 dollars/ton, an increase of 50.5 dollars/ton. The SHFE - LME ratio increased from 8.50 to 8.60. The SHFE inventory decreased by 7,207 tons to 51,378 tons, the LME inventory decreased by 15,300 tons to 180,050 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 14,200 tons to 85,800 tons. The spot premium increased by 10 yuan/ton to 170 yuan/ton [5]. 2. Market Review - The main contract of SHFE zinc ZN2506 continued to rebound from a low level last week, closing at 22,750 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 3.17%. The price center shifted down on Friday night. The LME zinc rebounded, closing at 2,645.5 dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.95%. In the spot market, the spot premium rebounded, but the trading was light. As of April 25th, the LME zinc inventory decreased by 15,300 tons to 180,050 tons, the SHFE inventory decreased by 7,207 tons to 51,378 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 14,200 tons to 85,800 tons. In terms of the macro - environment, the US April Markit composite PMI declined more than expected, Trump mentioned potential tariff cuts on China, and Fed officials discussed interest - rate cuts. The eurozone's April composite PMI had almost zero growth. China's Politburo meeting emphasized a more proactive macro - policy [6][7][8][9]. 3. Industry News - In May, the monthly processing fees for domestic and imported zinc concentrates increased by 50 yuan/metal ton and 5 dollars/dry ton respectively. On April 22nd, the Antamina mine in Peru had an accident and resumed operation on the 24th. In March, the import volume of zinc concentrates decreased by 22.09% month - on - month and increased by 47.16% year - on - year, and the import volume of refined zinc decreased by 18.12% month - on - month and 40.5% year - on - year. In the first quarter, Teck's zinc concentrate output decreased by 14% year - on - year, Boliden's increased by 38.95% quarter - on - quarter and 45.78% year - on - year, and Newmont's decreased by 23.9% quarter - on - quarter. The demand for electronic product orders in the die - casting zinc alloy industry in Guangdong has slowed down. The ILZSG expects the global refined zinc demand to increase by 1% to 1.364 million tons in 2025 and the output to increase by 1.8% to 1.373 million tons, and the zinc mine output to increase by 4.3% to 1.243 million tons [12][13][14]. 4. Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the price trends of SHFE zinc and LME zinc, the internal and external price ratio, spot premiums, LME premiums, inventory changes, and domestic and foreign zinc ore processing fees, etc., which help to visually present the market situation of zinc [15][19][20][30].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Copper prices have rebounded mainly due to the easing of tariff attitudes and strong support from the spot end, but the sustainability of consumption remains to be observed. Near the May Day holiday, it is recommended to wait and see [2][3][7]. - Alumina prices have continued to decline, leading to an expansion of industry losses. The short - term market situation has alleviated the oversupply pattern, but the price is still under pressure. It is recommended to wait for the price to rebound and then short [10][14][15]. - Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. It is necessary to pay attention to changes in tariff policies and domestic demand - boosting policies [19][23][24]. - Zinc prices may rebound in the short term due to overseas zinc mine shutdown news, and it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options [27][30][31]. - Lead prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term range, and it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options [34][35][37]. - Nickel prices follow macro - sentiment fluctuations in the short term and should be shorted on rebounds in the medium term [42][44][45]. - Stainless steel prices follow nickel prices and macro - changes in the short term and may decline in the medium term if the global economy enters a recession [47][49][50]. - Tin prices are expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see for options [53][58][59]. - Industrial silicon prices are under pressure due to high inventory. Even if there is a rebound, it is an opportunity to short [61][64][65]. - Polysilicon 2506 contract will follow the delivery logic, and the price will be repaired upwards. It is recommended to go long on PS2506 and short on PS2511 for arbitrage [66][68][69]. - Lithium carbonate prices are recommended to be shorted on rebounds, hold put ratio options, and wait and see for arbitrage [70][72][75]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: On April 24, the Shanghai Copper 2505 contract closed at 77,600 yuan, a decrease of 0.5%. The Shanghai Copper Index increased its positions by 4,180 lots to 534,100 lots. The spot copper price fluctuated downward, and the downstream demand for receiving goods weakened [2]. - **Important Information**: As of April 24, the national mainstream copper inventory decreased by 14,800 tons to 181,700 tons compared with Monday, and decreased by 51,700 tons compared with last Thursday. Canadian miner Teck Resources' copper sales increased in Q1, and Anglo American's copper production decreased in Q1, but both maintained their annual production guidance [2][3]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of copper ore is tight, processing fees are declining, and the price of sulfuric acid is falling. The supply of scrap copper has increased after the price rebound, and the downstream consumption has weakened, but the inventory is low, and there is restocking demand before May Day [3][6]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading, and wait and see for both arbitrage and options [7][12]. Alumina - **Market Review**: On April 24, the Alumina 2505 contract increased by 35 yuan/ton to 2,847 yuan/ton, and the positions decreased by 16,659 lots to 381,200 lots. The spot price increased slightly [9]. - **Related Information**: A large - scale alumina enterprise in Shandong completed the overhaul of a 1 - million - ton production line, and the 2.5 - million - ton old production line will be shut down. As of April 24, the national alumina inventory decreased by 26,000 tons to 3.423 million tons [10][11]. - **Logic Analysis**: The decline in alumina prices has led to an expansion of industry losses. The short - term market situation has alleviated the oversupply pattern, but the price is still under pressure due to factors such as new production capacity and high inventory [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to wait for the price to rebound and then short for unilateral trading, and wait and see for both arbitrage and options [15][12]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: On April 24, the Shanghai Aluminum 2506 contract closed at 19,930 yuan/ton, an increase of 115 yuan/ton, and the positions increased by 8,103 lots to 536,500 lots. The spot price increased [18]. - **Related Information**: Trump said he might "significantly reduce" tariffs on China, but there is no actual negotiation. The US 4 - month Markit manufacturing PMI unexpectedly expanded, and the aluminum ingot and aluminum rod social inventories decreased [19][22]. - **Logic Analysis**: The weighted starting rate of aluminum processing has continued to decline, but the inventory is low. The import of aluminum ingots has increased, and the annual supply - demand is expected to be in surplus [23]. - **Trading Strategy**: Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. It is recommended to wait and see for both arbitrage and options [24]. Zinc - **Market Review**: On April 24, the Shanghai Zinc 2506 increased by 0.78% to 22,590 yuan/ton, and the positions of the Shanghai Zinc Index decreased by 4,124 lots to 231,400 lots. The spot price in Shanghai increased, but the downstream procurement was weak [26]. - **Related Information**: As of April 24, the SMM seven - region zinc ingot inventory decreased by 14,200 tons to 85,800 tons. Boliden's zinc concentrate production in Q1 increased, and Newmont's decreased [27][29]. - **Logic Analysis**: Overseas zinc mines have shut down, which may drive zinc prices to rebound. In April - May, domestic smelters have both maintenance and production increases, and the consumption is about to enter the off - season [30]. - **Trading Strategy**: Zinc prices may rebound in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see for both arbitrage and options [31]. Lead - **Market Review**: On April 24, the Shanghai Lead 2506 increased by 0.41% to 16,940 yuan/ton, and the positions of the Shanghai Lead Index decreased by 1,218 lots to 72,200 lots. The spot price increased slightly, and the downstream procurement was mainly for rigid demand [33]. - **Related Information**: A regenerated lead smelter in the northwest shut down due to equipment failure, and a smelter in the south began lead - zinc smelting maintenance [34]. - **Logic Analysis**: The waste battery recycling is weak, the regenerated lead smelting is in a loss state, and the lead - acid battery enterprises will stock up before the holiday, which will support the lead price [35]. - **Trading Strategy**: Lead prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term range. It is recommended to wait and see for both arbitrage and options [37]. Nickel - **Market Review**: On April 24, the Shanghai Nickel NI2506 decreased by 130 to 125,770 yuan/ton, and the index positions increased by 3,012 lots. The spot premium decreased, and the sulfuric acid nickel price increased [39]. - **Related Information**: The global public debt is expected to exceed the level during the COVID - 19 period. Indonesia's "Titan Project" will continue, and Nanjing Hanrui Cobalt postponed the commissioning of its nickel smelting project [40][41]. - **Logic Analysis**: Macro - sentiment fluctuates, the supply of raw materials is gradually abundant, and the medium - term supply - demand is turning to be loose [42][44]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short on rebounds in the medium term, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options [45]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: On April 24, the main SS2506 contract increased by 15 to 12,780 yuan/ton, and the index positions decreased by 2,661 lots. The spot price of cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel is given [47]. - **Related Information**: As of April 24, the national mainstream stainless steel social inventory decreased by 0.78% week - on - week, mainly the 300 - series resources were digested [48]. - **Logic Analysis**: The prices of NPI and chrome ore have stopped rising, the demand is unclear, and the inventory digestion is slow [49]. - **Trading Strategy**: Follow macro - fluctuations in the short term and decline in the medium term. Wait and see for arbitrage [50][51]. Tin - **Market Review**: On April 24, the Shanghai Tin 2505 contract closed at 259,520 yuan/ton, an increase of 920 yuan/ton or 0.36%. The spot price increased, but the actual transaction was limited [53][55]. - **Related Information**: The Wabang industrial and mineral management bureau held a meeting on the resumption of production in the Manxiang mine, and the cost of low - altitude mines and small and medium - sized concentrators may increase. Elementos released the feasibility study of its Oropesa tin project [56][57]. - **Logic Analysis**: The US Treasury Secretary's statement released a signal of trade war easing, but the market expectation is still volatile. The short - term tin ore supply is tight, but the annual supply - demand tightness is alleviated [58]. - **Trading Strategy**: Tin prices are expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short term. Wait and see for options [59][60]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The industrial silicon futures main contract weakened on April 24, closing at 8,875 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.11%. The spot price of some grades decreased [61]. - **Related Information**: Henan Rongwang New Materials plans to build a 1 - million - ton regenerated industrial silicon project [63]. - **Logic Analysis**: The inventory of industrial silicon is high, the demand is weak, and the price is under pressure. Even if there is a rebound, it is an opportunity to short [64]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short on rebounds. Wait and see for options. Participate in the reverse arbitrage of Si2511 and Si2512 [65]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: On April 24, the polysilicon futures main contract rebounded, closing at 39,375 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.26%. The spot price decreased [66]. - **Related Information**: From January to March 2025, China's new photovoltaic installed capacity increased by 30.5% year - on - year [67]. - **Logic Analysis**: The prices of components, silicon wafers, and batteries have decreased, and the industry is pessimistic about demand. The 2506 contract will follow the delivery logic [68]. - **Trading Strategy**: The 2506 contract price will be repaired upwards. Go long on PS2506 and short on PS2511 for arbitrage [69]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: On April 24, the main 2507 contract increased by 40 to 68,300 yuan/ton, and the index positions decreased by 1,200 lots. The spot price decreased [70]. - **Related Information**: LG Energy Solution withdrew from an Indonesian project, and a new energy technology company was established. Jilin Province introduced consumption - boosting policies [71]. - **Logic Analysis**: Multiple factors led to a short - term price rebound, but the industrial logic is still bearish. The supply may increase in May, and the price may be under pressure [72]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short on rebounds, wait and see for arbitrage, and hold put ratio options [75].

Market Overview - Stock markets experienced a significant surge following U.S. President Donald Trump's unexpected reversal on tariffs, with a universal 10% rate applied to all trade partners except China [1][2] Automotive Industry - Major automotive companies saw substantial gains, with Volkswagen, BMW, and Mercedes-Benz Group all increasing by over 9%, and Stellantis rising by 14% [3] - In Asia, Nissan rose by 9.5%, Honda by 8.4%, and Toyota by 7.7%, reflecting a positive market reaction to Trump's 90-day pause announcement [4] Banking Sector - The banking sector recorded sharp gains of 8.61% at market open, recovering from previous declines, with European banks like Banco Santander, Deutsche Bank, and Intesa Sanpaolo rising by 9-11% [5] - UBS also saw a rise of 9.5%, indicating a rebound in investor confidence [5][6] Pharmaceutical Sector - Pharmaceutical stocks rebounded, with Novo Nordisk gaining 10% and other major firms like Novartis and Bayer increasing by over 5% [9] - The sector had previously faced uncertainty due to potential tariffs, but the recent market movement suggests a temporary reprieve [10] Luxury Goods Sector - Luxury stocks, including LVMH and Kering, experienced gains, benefiting from their strong pricing power and ability to pass on costs to consumers [11] - However, analysts caution that a broader economic downturn could impact consumer spending even among wealthier shoppers [12][13] Mining Industry - Mining stocks in Europe performed well, with Anglo American shares jumping 11% and other companies like Antofagasta and Glencore trading up by more than 8% [14] - Despite previous warnings about the impact of trade policies on demand for metals, the sector showed resilience in the current market environment [14]