1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The US government shutdown has reached a record length, causing significant concerns about liquidity and a notable decline in market risk appetite. This has led to a correction in risk assets. The market is closely watching the US government's reopening and key economic data such as the ADP employment and non - manufacturing PMI for October [2]. - In the domestic market, the A - share market is expected to be weak in the short - term and has long - term investment value. The bond market is expected to maintain a relatively strong and volatile pattern in November [3]. - Precious metals, copper, aluminum, and other commodities are under pressure due to factors such as the US government shutdown, rising dollar index, and changes in supply - demand fundamentals. Different commodities have different trends based on their own supply - demand and cost factors [4][6][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: The US government shutdown has reached a record length, causing a significant decline in market risk appetite. The Nasdaq fell by more than 2%, and prices of gold, copper, and oil all declined. The dollar index returned above 100, and the 10Y US Treasury yield decreased. The SOFR rate increased significantly at the end of October, affected by both structural and seasonal factors. The correction of risk assets is mainly due to profit - taking after reaching high levels. The market is waiting for the US government to reopen to relieve liquidity in the repo market [2]. - Domestic: The A - share market weakened on Tuesday, with over 3,600 stocks closing lower and trading volume shrinking to 1.94 trillion. The dividend and micro - cap styles continued to dominate, while the ChiNext and STAR Market adjusted. In November, the market lacks new macro and event catalysts, and the fundamentals will remain moderately volatile. In the short - term, it is expected to be weak, but in the long - term, it is still cost - effective to buy on dips. The bond market continued to diverge, with long - term interest rates falling and short - term rates rising. The central bank's net purchase of national debt in October was 20 billion yuan. In November, the bond market may benefit from the decline in risk appetite and refocus on fundamentals, maintaining a relatively strong and volatile pattern [3]. 3.2 Precious Metals - On Tuesday, international precious metal futures prices both declined. COMEX gold futures fell 1.81% to $3,941.30 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 2.40% to $46.90 per ounce. This was mainly due to the rise in the dollar index and the decrease in the market's expectation of the Fed's rate cut in December. The US government shutdown has led to a shortage of official economic data, and investors are more reliant on private indicators. The report maintains the view that precious metal prices are in a phased adjustment [4][5]. 3.3 Copper - On Tuesday, the main contract of Shanghai copper continued to correct, and LME copper fell below $10,600 at night. The domestic near - month structure remained at par. The spot market trading of electrolytic copper became more active, and downstream buyers actively replenished stocks at low prices. The LME inventory rose to 134,000 tons. The US government shutdown has lasted for 35 days, which may drag down the US economic growth in the fourth quarter. Fed officials have different views on the rate cut in December. Glencore plans to close its copper smelter in Canada due to environmental and cost issues. Considering the macro and fundamental factors, copper prices are expected to continue to adjust as the expectation of a rate cut in December fades [6][7]. 3.4 Aluminum - On Tuesday, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed flat at 21,500 yuan/ton, and LME aluminum fell 1.48% to $2,865.5 per ton. The spot price was stable, and the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots increased slightly. The US government shutdown, the Fed's cautious stance, and the continuous rebound of the dollar index have put pressure on the metal market. Domestically, the start - up of electrolytic aluminum is stable, and the supply of aluminum ingots may increase in November. The high price of aluminum has made downstream buyers cautious, and the supply - demand drive is not strong. Aluminum prices are adjusting following the macro sentiment [8]. 3.5 Alumina - On Tuesday, the main contract of alumina futures fell 0.4% to 2,764 yuan/ton, and the spot price also declined. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased. The alumina project of State Power Investment Corporation in Guinea has started construction. The high - start situation of alumina enterprises remains unchanged, the supply is generally loose, the social inventory is accumulating, and the cost support is slightly weakening. Alumina prices are expected to remain weak [9][10]. 3.6 Zinc - On Tuesday, the main contract of Shanghai zinc showed a volatile trend. The spot market supply was tight, and traders supported prices, but downstream buyers were cautious. Glencore's zinc production increased in the third quarter, while South32 and Penoles' production decreased. Affected by the decline in the US stock market and the continuous rise of the dollar index, zinc prices were slightly pressured. The consumption is gradually weakening, but the reduction in supply and exports may support zinc prices. In the short - term, zinc prices are expected to be volatile [11][12]. 3.7 Lead - On Tuesday, the main contract of Shanghai lead first rose and then fell. The inventory of deliverable warrants was limited, and the supply of recycled lead increased after enterprises resumed production. Due to environmental control in Henan, the transportation of lead ingots was affected, increasing the delivery cycle and intensifying the regional supply shortage. In the future, the supply is expected to increase, and lead prices are expected to be volatile at high levels [13]. 3.8 Tin - On Tuesday, the main contract of Shanghai tin showed a weak and volatile trend. The continuous rise of the dollar index has put pressure on commodities. The contradiction in the raw material end has been slightly alleviated, and the processing fees are stable at a low level. The consumption in the traditional electronic sector is weak, and downstream buyers are cautious at high prices. In the short - term, tin prices are expected to continue to adjust weakly following the sector [15]. 3.9 Industrial Silicon - On Tuesday, industrial silicon showed a narrow - range volatile trend. The inventory of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange decreased. The production in Xinjiang remained at a high level, while the production in Yunnan and Sichuan decreased due to the approaching dry season. The demand in the polysilicon industry has different trends, and the social inventory decreased slightly last week. Affected by the weakening sentiment in the industrial product market, industrial silicon futures prices are expected to adjust in the short - term [16][17]. 3.10 Lithium Carbonate - On Tuesday, the price of lithium carbonate was weak, but the spot price rose. The market has expectations for the resumption of production of Ningde's mine, which has led to a significant reduction in long - position holdings. The total inventory has decreased, but the market inventory has only slightly decreased, and the downstream's willingness to accumulate inventory at high prices is not strong. In the short - term, the price is expected to fluctuate widely due to the complex market information and changing sentiment [18]. 3.11 Nickel - On Tuesday, nickel prices were weak. The inventory decreased. The nickel - iron production of Eramet increased in the third quarter. The continuous rise of the dollar index has put pressure on nickel prices, but the potential supply disruption in the Philippines and the cost support may limit the decline. In the short - term, nickel prices have reached the bottom of the range, and there may be opportunities for long - position entry [19][20]. 3.12 Soda Ash and Glass - On Tuesday, the main contract of soda ash showed a volatile trend, and the glass contract showed a slightly stronger trend. Ningxia Risheng and Jiangsu Debang plan to reduce the production load of soda ash. Hubei Yijun plans to cold - repair a photovoltaic glass production line. The supply of soda ash is expected to face pressure, and the demand for glass has no obvious improvement. The prices of soda ash and glass are expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to the convergence opportunity of the cross - variety price difference [21]. 3.13 Steel and Iron Ore - On Tuesday, steel futures were weak. The spot trading volume was low, and the production of steel enterprises decreased in October. As the weather gets colder, the demand for steel will further weaken, and the supply - demand situation remains weak. Iron ore futures prices fell. The port inventory increased significantly due to the increase in arrivals and the decrease in demand. The iron ore market is expected to be weak [22][24]. 3.14 Bean and Rapeseed Meal - On Tuesday, the bean meal contract fell 0.69%, and the rapeseed meal contract rose 1.55%. StoneX lowered the forecast of US soybean yield in 2025, and the soybean planting progress in Brazil is normal. The recent increase in the purchase of soybeans for the 12 - 1 ship period in China will supplement the supply. Bean meal prices are expected to enter a volatile adjustment phase in the short - term [25][26]. 3.15 Palm Oil - On Tuesday, the palm oil contract fell 0.85%. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil in October is expected to reach 2.44 million tons, a two - year high, due to the increase in production. The export also increased, but the supply is still relatively loose. Considering the macro and fundamental factors, palm oil prices are expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term [27][28].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Gold: The continuous government shutdown affects liquidity; silver shows an oscillating rebound [2][5]. - Copper: Concerns about the US economy cause prices to decline [2][9]. - Zinc: Experiences wide - range oscillations [2][12]. - Lead: Lacks a clear driving force, with prices oscillating [2][16]. - Tin: Attention should be paid to macro - impacts [2][18]. - Aluminum: Has support at the lower level; alumina's oversupply pattern remains unchanged; cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum [2][21]. - Nickel: Smelting - end inventory accumulation suppresses, while ore - end uncertainties provide support; stainless - steel prices oscillate narrowly at a low level [2][23]. - Lithium carbonate: Weakly oscillates due to复产 expectations and off - season expectations [2][26]. - Industrial silicon: With continuous de - stocking of warehouse receipts, it has strong bottom support; polysilicon: Attention should be paid to this week's information [2][29]. - Iron ore: Repeats at a high level [2][32]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: Weakly oscillate due to sector sentiment disturbances [2][37]. - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese: Experience wide - range oscillations due to sector sentiment and supply - demand disturbances [2][41]. - Coke and coking coal: Repeat at a high level [2][44]. - Logs: Oscillate repeatedly [2][46]. - p - Xylene: Aromatic blending oil supports valuation, with a high - level oscillating market; PTA: With fair demand and still existing supply pressure, it has a high - level oscillating market; MEG: Has relatively large supply pressure and a weakening trend [2][50]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Price and Trading Volume**: Gold prices decline, with沪金2512 closing at 915.58 yuan with a daily decline of 0.76%, and成交 and持仓 decreasing; silver shows an oscillating rebound, with沪银2512 closing at 11238 yuan with a daily decline of 1.90%, and成交 increasing while持仓 slightly increasing [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Wall Street warns of inflation risks, and the US government shutdown may break records [5]. Copper - **Price and Trading Volume**: Copper prices fall, with沪铜主力合约 closing at 85740 yuan with a daily decline of 1.79%, and成交 increasing while持仓 decreasing [9]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The US government shutdown and the fate of Trump's tariffs are uncertain; a new copper smelter in Chile gets environmental approval, and an Indonesian company gets a copper concentrate export quota [9][11]. Zinc - **Price and Trading Volume**: Zinc prices oscillate widely, with沪锌主力 closing at 22670 yuan with a daily increase of 0.47%, and成交 increasing while持仓 decreasing [12]. - **News**: The Dutch government's interference in semiconductor enterprises and the uncertainty of Trump's tariffs [13][15]. Lead - **Price and Trading Volume**: Lead prices oscillate, with沪铅主力 closing at 17415 yuan with a daily decline of 0.03%, and成交 and持仓 decreasing [16]. - **News**: The US government shutdown and the uncertainty of Trump's tariffs [16]. Tin - **Price and Trading Volume**: Tin prices decline, with沪锡主力 closing at 283730 yuan with a daily decline of 0.71%, and成交 and持仓 decreasing [18]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Similar to gold, including inflation warnings and government - related news [18][19]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Trading Volume**: Aluminum prices have support at the lower level, with沪铝主力 closing at 21465 yuan with a decline; alumina prices decline, and cast aluminum alloy prices also decline [21]. - **Data**: Various data such as futures market, spot market, and inventory data are provided [21]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Trading Volume**: Nickel prices decline, with沪镍主力 closing at 119700 yuan with a decline; stainless - steel prices oscillate narrowly at a low level, with stainless - steel主力 closing at 12545 yuan with a decline [23]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Indonesian mining company issues and possible US tariffs on China [23][25]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Trading Volume**: Lithium carbonate prices weakly oscillate, with 2511合约 closing at 77160 yuan with a decline, and成交 and持仓 decreasing [26]. - **Macro and Industry News**: SMM lithium carbonate price index decline and Samsung SDI's supply agreement with Tesla [26][27]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price and Trading Volume**: Industrial silicon prices decline, with Si2601 closing at 8885 yuan with a decline; polysilicon prices decline, with PS2601 closing at 53715 yuan with a decline [29]. - **Macro and Industry News**:纤纳光电's release of a large - size perovskite photovoltaic commercial component [29][31]. Iron Ore - **Price and Trading Volume**: Iron ore prices repeat at a high level, with the futures closing at 775.5 yuan with a decline, and持仓 increasing [32]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Sino - US leaders' meeting [32][33]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Price and Trading Volume**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices weakly oscillate, with RB2601 closing at 3044 yuan with a decline and HC2601 closing at 3265 yuan with a decline [37]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Steel production data, government policies on commercial real estate, and national development planning related to the steel industry [37][40]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Price and Trading Volume**: Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese prices oscillate widely, with硅铁2601 closing at 5510 yuan with a decline and锰硅2601 closing at 5754 yuan with a decline [41]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Exchange policy adjustments, regional price quotes, and power price changes [41][43]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Price and Trading Volume**: Coke and coking coal prices repeat at a high level, with JM2601 closing at 1253 yuan with a decline and J2601 closing at 1729 yuan with a decline [44]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Sino - US leaders' meeting [44][45]. Logs - **Price and Trading Volume**: Log prices oscillate repeatedly, with 2511合约 closing at 740.5 yuan with minor fluctuations, and成交 and持仓 showing significant changes [46][47]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Sino - US leaders' meeting [47][49]. p - Xylene, PTA, and MEG - **Market Conditions**: p - Xylene has a high - level oscillating market supported by aromatic blending oil; PTA has a high - level oscillating market with fair demand and supply pressure; MEG has a weakening trend due to large supply pressure [2][50].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [7] - Arbitrage: On hold [7] - Options: Short put [7] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current tight supply at the mine end and the continuously low TC prices remain unchanged. Overseas smelters are exploring new processing fee pricing logics, and China's Non - Ferrous Metals Supply Association has proposed setting an upper limit on some non - ferrous metal smelting capacities. The positive factors on the demand side are mostly at the expected level, and actual consumption may not be outstanding. The November strategy is to mainly conduct buy - hedging on dips, with the recommended buying range between 85,500 yuan/ton and 86,000 yuan/ton. When the price approaches 89,000 yuan/ton, sell - hedging can be carried out [7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Key Data 3.1.1 Futures Quotes - On November 4, 2025, the opening price of the main Shanghai copper contract was 87,430 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 85,740 yuan/ton, a - 1.79% decline from the previous trading day's close. In the night session, it opened at 85,000 yuan/ton and closed at 85,690 yuan/ton, a 0.06% decline from the afternoon close [1]. 3.1.2 Spot Situation - The domestic spot 1 electrolytic copper was quoted between 86,290 and 86,890 yuan/ton. The spot market showed a discount of 70 to a premium of 70 yuan/ton to the current - month contract, and the average price increased slightly by 5 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The Shanghai copper price dropped from 86,800 yuan/ton to around 86,400 yuan/ton during the day, and the import loss of the current - month contract narrowed to about 800 yuan/ton. Downstream buyers generally expected the copper price to fall further and were conservative in purchasing. If the copper price falls below 86,000 yuan/ton, it may stimulate some purchases, but the market is still bearish. As the spread between near - and far - month contracts narrows, holders may lower premiums to promote transactions [2]. 3.2 Important Information Summary 3.2.1 Macro - news - The U.S. Senate failed to pass the federal government's temporary appropriation bill again, and the federal government's "shutdown" entered the 35th day, tying the longest "shutdown" record in U.S. history. The U.S. Supreme Court will hear whether Trump's tariff policy is legal this Wednesday [3]. 3.2.2 Mine End - The general election in Tanzania caused unrest, leading to the temporary closure of the Dar es Salaam Port, an important hub for African copper exports to China. About two - thirds of copper shipments to China are transshipped through this port, resulting in shipping delays, increased logistics and insurance costs, and some cargo being stranded in the port. Afenhao Mining announced that its Phase I concentrator at Pratt Reef started feeding on October 29, and the first batch of concentrates is expected to be produced in the next few weeks. Indonesia's Energy Ministry approved Amman Mineral to export 480,000 dry tons of copper concentrates for six months [3]. 3.2.3 Smelting and Import - Glencore plans to close its Horne copper smelter in Quebec, Canada, due to environmental issues and the need for millions of dollars in facility upgrades. The annual copper production of this smelter is expected to exceed 300,000 tons, which will intensify the global copper shortage expectation [4]. 3.2.4 Consumption - Yingtan City has transformed its investment - promotion concept, driving the high - quality development of the copper - based new materials industrial cluster. The revenue of local copper enterprises accounts for 15% of the national industry, and the copper product output ranks first in the country. AI data centers have extremely high power demand, and China plans to build 1,000 large - scale AI data centers in the next five years [4]. 3.2.5 Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts decreased by 1,025 tons to 133,900 tons compared to the previous day. SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 1,081 tons to 41,147 tons. On November 3, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 200,100 tons, a change of 17,500 tons from the previous week [5][6]. 3.3 Copper Price and Basis Data | Project | 2025 - 11 - 05 | 2025 - 11 - 04 | 2025 - 10 - 29 | 2025 - 10 - 06 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SMM: 1 copper (spot, premium/discount) | 0 | - 5 | - 55 | 15 | | Premium copper | 60 | 60 | - 5 | 70 | | Flat - water copper | - 45 | - 30 | - 85 | - 30 | | Wet - process copper | - 90 | - 100 | - 145 | - 80 | | Yangshan premium | 51 | 51 | 53 | 54 | | LME (0 - 3) | - 26 | - 14 | - 24 | - 25 | | LME inventory | 133,900 | 133,600 | 134,575 | 139,550 | | SHFE inventory | 116,140 | - | 104,792 | - | | COMEX inventory | 325,213 | 322,649 | 315,465 | 296,716 | | SHFE warehouse receipts | 41,147 | 40,066 | 35,846 | 26,823 | | LME cancelled warehouse receipt ratio | 8.33% | 9.95% | 7.34% | 5.68% | | CU2602 - CU2511 (continuous three - month - near - month) | 50 | 70 | - 30 | - 300 | | CU2512 - CU2511 (main - near - month) | 40 | 40 | - 10 | - 240 | | CU2512/AL25 | 3.99 | 4.04 | 4.11 | 4.02 | | CU251/ZN25 | 3.78 | 3.87 | 3.90 | 3.81 | | Import profit | - 685 | - 872 | - 765 | - 528 | | SHFE - LME ratio (main contract) | 8.05 | 8.07 | 7.89 | 8.07 | [24][25][28]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Concerns about the US economy have led to a decline in copper prices [1] - The trend strength of copper is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [3] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking Futures Data - The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 85,740, with a daily decline of 1.79%, and the night - session closing price was 85,690, with a decline of 0.06%. The closing price of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 10,649, with a decline of 1.57% [1] - The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper index was 320,218, an increase of 44,492 compared to the previous day, and the open interest was 561,697, a decrease of 24,178. The trading volume of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 33,128, an increase of 17,584, and the open interest was 335,000, an increase of 561 [1] - The inventory of Shanghai Copper was 41,147, an increase of 1,081, and the inventory of LME Copper was 133,900, an increase of 300. The cancellation warrant ratio of LME Copper was 8.16%, a decrease of 0.17% [1] Spot Data - The LME copper premium/discount was - 25.7, a decrease of 11.26 compared to the previous day. The bonded - area warehouse receipt premium and bill of lading premium remained unchanged [1] - The price of Shanghai 1 bright copper was 78,100, a decrease of 300. The spot - to - futures near - month spread was 0, an increase of 5; the near - month contract to the consecutive - first contract spread remained unchanged [1] - The cost of the inter - month arbitrage of buying the near - month and selling the consecutive - first contract was 204. The spread between Shanghai copper spot and LME cash was - 577, an increase of 176; the spread between the Shanghai Copper consecutive - third contract and LME 3M was - 493, an increase of 142 [1] - The spread between Shanghai copper spot and Shanghai 1 recycled copper was 3,315, a decrease of 6. The recycled copper import profit and loss was - 1,451, an increase of 190 [1] 2. Macro and Industry News Macro News - The US Senate failed to pass the appropriation bill, and the federal government's "shutdown" is set to break the record [1] - The fate of Trump's tariffs depends on three justices appointed by himself, and US Treasury Secretary Bessent will go to the Supreme Court and emphasize the importance of tariffs [1] Industry News - Chile's state - owned mining company ENAMI has obtained environmental approval for a new copper smelter worth $1.7 billion, which will process up to 850,000 tons of copper concentrate and produce up to 240,000 tons of cathode copper annually [1] - Indonesia has granted Amman Mineral International a 400,000 - ton copper concentrate export quota valid for six months [3] - Chile's copper production in September was 456,663 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.79% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.5% [3] - Glencore plans to close its Horne smelter in Quebec, Canada, and its supporting copper refinery due to environmental issues and high transformation costs [3]

2025年11月05日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：政府关门持续影响流动性 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：震荡反弹 | 2 | | 铜：担忧美国经济，价格回落 | 4 | | 锌：宽幅震荡 | 6 | | 铅：缺乏明确驱动，价格震荡 | 8 | | 锡：关注宏观影响 | 9 | | 铝：下方支撑 | 11 | | 氧化铝：过剩格局未改 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 11 | | 镍：冶炼端累库压制，矿端不确定性支撑 | 13 | | 不锈钢：钢价低位窄幅震荡运行 | 13 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 商 品 研 究 2025 年 11 月 5 日 黄金：政府关门持续影响流动性 白银：震荡反弹 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | 贵金属基本面数据 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜 ...

Core Points - Pacific Nickel Mines (PNM) subsidiary Pacific Nickel International (PNI) has agreed to sell 100% of its shares in the Kolosori nickel project to Green Rock under a share sale and purchase agreement (SPA) [1] - The Kolosori nickel project is located on Isabel Island and is a direct shipping ore nickel laterite project [1] - PNM holds an 80% stake in Pacific Nickel Mines Kolosori (PNMK), which is the owner and operator of the Kolosori nickel project [1] Financial and Legal Aspects - GRP & Associates has agreed to guarantee the buyer's obligations under the SPA [2] - A significant aspect of the transaction is the Glencore deed of release, which releases PNM from all liabilities under the Glencore secured facility agreement, currently guaranteeing $22 million (A$33.85 million) plus approximately $8.6 million in accrued interest [2][3] - The deed of release will become effective upon completion of the SPA and is a condition precedent to closing the transaction [3] Operational Context - PNM previously announced the cessation of operations at the Kolosori project due to operational challenges and a weak nickel price outlook in the short to medium term [5] - The PNM board concluded that entering into the SPA for the sale of the Kolosori nickel project is in the best interests of the company [5] Royalty Agreement - PNI has entered into a royalty agreement with Green Rock, entitling Pacific Nickel to a 1% royalty on nickel ore shipped from the Kolosori nickel project, contingent on monthly shipments exceeding 170,000 tonnes and the benchmark price on the Shanghai Metals Market averaging above $72 per tonne [4]

Report Information - Report Date: November 4, 2025 [4] - Report Type: Daily Report on Non-ferrous Metals [4] - Report Industry: Non-ferrous Metals [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Views - **Copper**: Today, copper prices decreased with a reduction in positions, showing an accelerated downward trend in the afternoon. The domestic macro environment weakened, leading to declines in both commodities and the stock market. At the industrial level, as copper prices dropped significantly, the downstream replenishment willingness may increase. Technically, copper prices fell below the 10-day moving average, indicating strong downward momentum [6]. - **Aluminum**: Today, aluminum prices decreased with a reduction in positions, but rebounded significantly at the end of the session. The domestic macro environment weakened, causing declines in commodities and the stock market. The rebound at the end of the session recovered the afternoon losses, demonstrating its resistance to decline. At the industrial level, electrolytic aluminum showed a slight inventory build-up on Monday. Technically, attention should be paid to the support of the 5-day moving average [7]. - **Nickel**: Today, Shanghai nickel prices decreased with an increase in positions, and the main contract price fell below the 120,000 yuan mark. The domestic macro environment weakened, resulting in declines in commodities and the stock market. The weakness at the industrial level made funds more inclined to short nickel to hedge long positions in non-ferrous metals. Technically, attention should be paid to the long-short game at the 120,000 yuan mark [8]. Summary by Catalog 1. Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: Glencore plans to gradually shut down its Horne smelter in Quebec, Canada, due to high environmental upgrade and operating costs. Glencore operates the Horne smelter (with a rough smelting capacity of 200,000 tons) and the CCR copper refinery in Quebec. The Horne smelter processes copper concentrate into copper anodes, which are then further processed into copper cathodes by the CCR refinery. On November 3, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 203,000 tons, an increase of 13,800 tons from last Thursday [10]. - **Nickel**: On November 4, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 120,300 - 123,300 yuan/ton, with an average price of 121,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range for Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 2,500 - 2,700 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 2,600 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spot premium/discount quotation range for domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was -200 - 300 yuan/ton [11]. 2. Related Charts - **Copper**: The report includes charts on copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper (social inventory + bonded area inventory), overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [12][13][14] - **Aluminum**: The report includes charts on aluminum monthly spread, average price of aluminum premium/discount in the Yangtze River spot market, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), alumina inventory, and aluminum rod inventory [25][26][30] - **Nickel**: The report includes charts on nickel basis, LME inventory, LME nickel trend, nickel monthly spread, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [36][38][40]

Group 1 - The price of copper has declined from its record high due to uncertainties surrounding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in December, with LME three-month copper contracts falling by 1.62% to $10,669.00 per ton [1] - Copper is considered a "barometer" of the global economy, widely used in construction, electricity, and manufacturing. It reached a record high of $11,200 per ton last week, driven by optimistic expectations from US-China trade talks [3] - Supply uncertainties have been a significant driver for recent copper price increases, with major mining companies like Glencore and Anglo American warning of production shortfalls, and Freeport-McMoRan reducing its 2026 production guidance by 35%, equating to a loss of approximately 270,000 tons of copper [3] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that the recent rise in copper prices is largely priced in, as market sentiment shifts back to the Federal Reserve's policy outlook, with a stronger dollar making dollar-denominated commodities less attractive [4] - The Federal Reserve's recent statements indicate a cautious approach to interest rate cuts, with several officials expressing skepticism about the need for further reductions, which has contributed to the uncertainty in the market [6][7] - Current market expectations place the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December at approximately 67%, but economic data gaps and inflation trends are creating a more uncertain policy outlook [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The document does not provide industry investment ratings. 2. Report's Core View The report presents the market trends and outlooks for various commodities on November 4, 2025, including precious metals, base metals, energy, chemicals, agricultural products, and livestock. It also analyzes the fundamental data and macro - industry news of each commodity, and gives the trend strength ratings for each commodity. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Attention should be paid to risks in US banks. The trend strength is 0. The price of Comex gold 2512 was 4013.70 with a 0.01% increase [2][5]. - **Silver**: It is expected to rebound in a volatile manner. The trend strength is 1. The price of Comex silver 2512 was 47.910 with a - 0.70% decrease [2][5]. Base Metals - **Copper**: A decrease in LME inventory restricts price decline. The trend strength is 0. The price of the Shanghai copper main contract was 87,300 with a 0.33% increase [2][9]. - **Zinc**: It is expected to run strongly. The trend strength is 0. The price of the Shanghai zinc main contract was 22,565 with a 0.94% increase [2][12]. - **Lead**: A continuous decrease in overseas inventory supports the price. The trend strength is 0. The price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 17,420 with a 0.17% increase [2][15]. - **Tin**: Attention should be paid to macro - impacts. The trend strength is 1. The price of the Shanghai tin main contract was 285,760 with a 0.65% increase [2][18]. - **Aluminum**: It is expected to fluctuate strongly. The trend strength is 1. The price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 21,600 with a 300 increase compared to T - 1 [2][22]. - **Alumina**: There is support at the bottom. The trend strength is 0. The price of the Shanghai alumina main contract was 2789 with a - 4 decrease compared to T - 1 [2][22]. - **Nickel**: Accumulated inventory at the smelting end suppresses the price, while uncertainties at the ore end provide support. The trend strength is 0. The price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 120,950 with a 360 increase compared to T - 1 [2][26]. - **Stainless Steel**: The steel price is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range at a low level. The trend strength is 0. The price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,630 with a - 25 decrease compared to T - 1 [2][26]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil - related**: - **LPG**: Demand improvement is limited, and the futures valuation is high [2][49]. - **Fuel Oil**: It is expected to fluctuate strongly, but weaker than low - sulfur fuel oil in the short term [2][53]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: There was a short - term adjustment in the night session, and the spot high - low sulfur spread in the overseas market continued to rise [2][53]. - **Chemicals**: - **PTA**: Demand is acceptable, but supply pressure still exists, and it is in a high - level volatile market [2][28]. - **MEG**: Supply pressure is large, and the trend is weak [2][28]. - **Rubber**: It is expected to fluctuate [2][30]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The cost has collapsed, and it is running weakly [2][32]. - **Asphalt**: It fluctuates following crude oil [2][34]. - **LLDPE**: Unplanned maintenance has increased, and attention should be paid to import pressure [2][36]. - **PP**: It is expected to fluctuate in the medium term [2][37]. - **Caustic Soda**: Cost provides support, and it is in a volatile market [2][38]. - **Paper Pulp**: It is expected to fluctuate [2][40]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable [2][42]. - **Methanol**: It is expected to run weakly [2][43]. - **Urea**: It is under pressure and fluctuating [2][45]. - **Styrene**: It is expected to fluctuate weakly [2][47]. - **Soda Ash**: There are few changes in the spot market [2][48]. Agricultural Products and Livestock - **Oils and Fats**: - **Palm Oil**: There is a lack of driving factors, and short - term support should be noted [2][61]. - **Soybean Oil**: The price of US soybeans has rebounded, and the spread between soybean oil and palm oil is expected to widen [2][61]. - **Grains and Oilseeds**: - **Soybean Meal**: US soybeans have reached a new high, and the domestic soybean meal may follow the rebound [2][63]. - **Soybean**: The start of state - reserve purchases has stabilized the market [2][63]. - **Corn**: It is expected to fluctuate [2][65]. - **Sugar and Cotton**: - **Sugar**: It is in a range - bound adjustment [2][66]. - **Cotton**: The impact of the price of seed cotton on cotton futures has weakened [2][67]. - **Livestock and Poultry**: - **Eggs**: They are expected to fluctuate and adjust [2][69]. - **Pigs**: The price center has further declined [2][70]. - **Peanuts**: Attention should be paid to the spot market [2][71].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The reduction in LME copper inventory restricts the decline in copper prices [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai copper main - contract was 87,300 with a daily increase of 0.33%, and the night - session closing price was 86,970 with a decline of 0.38%. The LME copper 3M electronic - trading price was 10,819 with a decline of 0.67% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai copper index was 275,726, a decrease of 168,902 from the previous day, and the open interest was 585,875, a decrease of 7,728. The trading volume of the LME copper 3M electronic - trading was 15,544, a decrease of 5,193, and the open interest was 334,000, a decrease of 11,593 [1]. - **Inventory**: The Shanghai copper inventory was 40,066, an increase of 356, and the LME copper inventory was 133,600, a decrease of 1,025. The LME copper注销仓单 ratio was 8.33%, a decrease of 1.63% [1]. - **Spreads**: The LME copper spread increased by 6.95 to - 14.44. The Shanghai copper spot - to - futures near - month spread decreased by 5 to - 5, and the near - month contract to the consecutive - first contract spread decreased by 60 to - 40 [1]. 3.2 Macroeconomic and Industry News - **Macroeconomic News**: The US October ISM manufacturing PMI dropped to 48.7%, contracting for eight consecutive months. The euro - zone October manufacturing PMI was 50, with Germany and France in continuous contraction [1]. - **Industry News**: Glencore's copper production decreased by 17% in the first three quarters due to lower ore grades. Chile's state - owned mining company ENAMI obtained environmental approval for a new $1.7 - billion copper smelter. Indonesia granted Amman Mineral International a 400,000 - ton copper - concentrate export quota. Chile's September copper production was 456,663 tons, a 7.79% month - on - month increase and a 4.5% year - on - year decrease [1][3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The copper trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [3].